Paul Murray Live | 26 March

Look forward to all of that. We've got so much to get to between now and then, including all killer no filler tonight, Robin Bishop, Stephen Conroy, all about the budget, all about the politics, and all about the what's next, plus the one, the only, the great, the awesome, the reason that we are NHD or four K maybe somewhere Meghan Kelly.

of course myself included. But still the media that obsess about this annual media pr event. Well, as I said, to bust the bs every now and then, you need to be reminded that this is a country full of compulsory voters, people who don't pay as much attention as us, and they will have just as much say as US news dot com dot You met a few of them today and this is just going to burst all those egos who think everything rides on the budget.

pay the granular attention that yes, we do. Again, I'm sorry, I'm part of this, but let's remind ourselves about the rest of the world. There was a poll that came out last year, after we had spent weeks and weeks and weeks talking about the changes to the Stage three tax cuts. Fifty three percent of people said they knew nothing at all or hardly anything. This is a reminder about no matter how loud the conversation in parts of the media, there are very significant number of people who

just either don't care or they're doing something else. And this isn't something that's just Green's voters or people between the ages of eighteen to twenty four. It was forty seven percent of Labor supporters, forty nine percent of Coalition voters, fifty percent of Green's voters, and well over that when it comes to everyone, from the trumpet of the patriots through the teals, the real independence, one nation and anything

else in between. And again, if this government thinks that you know Tuesday night television, speech, breakfast radio and slamming social media changes the world. Well months after their last budget when remember the two little too late tax carts, the power bill twenty five dollars a month thing, seventy three percent of Australians said they could name a single

government initiative that has made them financially better off. Again, a little reminder that those who think that the past twenty four hours has set a course for a definite win or a definite loss, and we all know what's going to happen at the election year of god, no idea. That's why on the Sunday Night Show, I really love getting into that state of the race because we don't just talk about the polls or the bookies. We talk about the tactics and we also talk about what the

posters are telling people in those different focus groups. Now, those may shift, they may harden, but they have not made a decision about which way they are going to go. So how inevitable people may think an election result is going to be just a little reminder. Even on Budget Night, even within an hour of the announcement being made, people weren't that impressed by five bucks a week next year?

all the way through to Vietnam. So there is all sorts of demographics inside that. And that's just a random sample from people who are in the street walking around last night when it comes to the budget. But maybe that's just something that a sky News microphone will attract Well, what about over in the Channel nine newspapers, Sidney Morning How or Brisbane Times and the Age And they spoke to a bunch of people. There were a couple of

people who were kind of excited. But Kathleen, who is a small business owner it's Sydney's western suburbs, was not impressed by the budget, saying the tax cuts were too small and showed the government was out of touch. Mitch and Caitlin, who I think are going to end up voting labor, but still they said that. Mitch said the tax cuts were welcome, but he said he wished the governor included more cost of living measures because of course five bucks doesn't touch sites. And don't forget, it's not

this year, it's next year. People are under the pump right now and it takes a while for those things to come through. I would have liked to see it go a little further. Anthony's a bricklayer on the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria. He remain concerned about the ballooning debt and whether the labor would follow through on the promises that it's made again. There were a couple that were pro but there were people like Sabrina, who was a

graphic designer and administration worker. She's thirty three. She lives on Say's Lower North Shore. Her feelings were mixed. So those that have paid incredible attention know that the only number that matters out of this budget is the one trillion dollars. The political distraction is the five dollars a week that doesn't kick in for another year. So anyone who thinks that the election has been won or lost by what happened in Cambera this week, you'd need to

get out more. Okay, And that's from the guy who deep dives on the data of the electoral role to see the changes seat by seat when it comes to gender and age demographics. It's a lovely reminder, so make sure you have conversations with people this weekend who you know don't know as much about what's happened in Cambera this week, because their reactions may shock you, but also you might be an opportunity to tell them what you think, which might lead them to maybe joining you and agree.

That's how elections are ultimately won and lost in Australia, what our friends and what our family think, not what the politicians tell you, or how the media spins the ball. I've got plenty on that in a second, but I want to turn my attention to what happens next. Last night we did ninety minutes about the budget. You can find all of that. It's gone news dot com. That are you where I get into the details and I tell you the five things you need to know. Here's

the deal. The next little while is important, not just because there's the election, but there's a bunch of stuff between now and the election, including tomorrow night. The big test for Peter Dutton his budget and reply speech. Now there will be such pressure put on him by the Labor Party that unless he produces one hundred ideas and he produces documents as thick as a federal budget, and

somehow it's all flimsy and a failure. What the reality is that Opposition doesn't have the ability to access the treasury the same way that the government does. They have to do it with a much smaller team. But still big ideas have to be expected out of Peter Dutton tomorrow. And I've got faith and Peter Dutton to be able to deliver some of these. Why because if you've actually been paying attention. He's already done it twice in his

budget and reply speeches. Now, remember Australia has not dumped the first term government in what a century. Most likely the first term opposition doesn't end up forming the beginnings

of the team that ends up winning an election. But we know how things are razor tight, and in part that has been in fact, largely that has been because of Peter Dutton's ability to go around the gatekeepers and get to big ideas like nuclear energy and also big ideas that are very popular with people, so popular that the government stole the idea, remember, which was to ban foreign investors in the Australian property market for the next

couple of years. His version, of course, is harsher than the government's version, and he knows that we need to do something about seriously dealing with the number of people who come into the country, because of course it is the Ponzi scheme of the federal budget. The more people you add, theoretically, the more tax payers you add, theoretically, the more tax you can theoretically you get closer towards

a balanced budget. But as you know, this budget is deeply in deficit, as will be next year, the year after, the year after, the year after, the year after, the year after. The Camera collective is talking about ten years. The Intergenerational Report, which I talk about every night, says it's to the twenty and sixties that we are in this world of pain. But the reality about why you have to pump the brakes seriously pump breaks on immigration

is because there's not enough houses. The infrastructure does not match the current population of twenty seven million, let alone the inevitable twenty eight, twenty nine, thirty two, thirty five, thirty six and forty million people that the big Australia crowd want to be Australia in twenty sixty when we're still running budget deficits. So watch this space. We'll have

full reaction to everything that happens tomorrow night. The speech happens live same time as the Treasurer seven thirty camera time and full analysis with us at nine o'clock about those big ideas. Again, just like the budget, one night does not change every thing, but it will shape the fight because increasingly you've got to put the meat on the table earlier than normal because half the electric votes.

Remember before actual election day, we will be with the opposition leader, the alternaty Prime Minister Monday taking questions from the viewers of this program. We've got a very full pub in his electric in Dixon and a lot of very smart people wanting to ask very direct questions. They will have plenty more. I have no doubt after tomorrow night and the budget in reply. But after the Peter Dunton's speech, the expectation is that the Prime Minister is

going to go to the Governor General and call the election. Now, this could happen as early as Friday. That was what Philip Query was suggesting in the Financial Review. That would be unorthodox because generally speaking, you don't call an election on anything but a Sunday. Why because traditionally that has been the biggest TV night for the six pm News.

But it's a very different world now. So just wanting to start the starter's gun means if nothing else, he's able to have a bigger subject to talk about them whatever Peter doudn't puts on the table tomorrow, But that may be delayed by a week, It may be delayed by two weeks. We are now down to three potential election dates. One of them is absolutely the last possible date. Because the parliament is done, the full term is done by May the seventeenth, he must have an election before then.

So will it be the third of May, will be the tenth of May? Will it be the seventeenth of May. And I know that there's something happening on each of these days. It could be a rugby league. I think something magic round on one of these days. There's obviously always a religious holiday. The point is people vote early. Half of four people will vote like two weeks before

the actual election day. So the actual date and those that say you can't do that date because of this, this and this, that doesn't matter as much as it used to. But also looking forward, and that's what we're going to try to do here, to try to not hold your hand, but tell you about what's coming up and around the corner, so nothing is a surprise. There are two mass dates that happen between now and any of those election dates. The first Reserve Bank Board meeting

that is due to happen on Monday, upcoming Monday. The announcement of whether they hold rates or drop rates, Well, that could well happen, and a second rate cup will obviously be interpreted as good for the Arbenezi government. Again, I think when you've had twelve increases to reductions are not going to result in again huge amounts of money. They're going to change people's fortunes, but it'll feed into the narrative of the government that everything is behind us,

that the worst is behind us. The second and perhaps more important date happens the following day, next Tuesday or Wednesday as straight in time, but Tuesday in the United States, and that is the second of April where Donald Trump will make his next round of tariff announcements. Now apparently there are going to be some exemptions for some countries,

some industry, so hopefully Australia falls into that category. And as much as I can't stand Kevin Rudd, the fielding's mutual and I'm not going to vote for the Prime Minister, and fairly would be mutual if I ever put my name on a ballot. Not going to happen. But as I've said before, even though I'm somebody who's on the Trump train, got the red hat, listen to Steve Bannon, I'm completely across all things Maga, mahar and all in between.

I know the difference between dark Maga Ultramaga all of that, but the majority of Australians don't have a positive view of President Trump. So Anthony Abernezi would love nothing more than, in the first week of an election campaign, if you can't get the interest rate cut well, to be able to get into some sort of verbal fight with a president who, yes, you'll have to deal with for the next three years, but ultimately he would love that as

the giant distraction. These are the things that can change the subject. And from any center left politicians who have had really bad political fortunes because they have been in charge of countries with horrible cost of living situations, their numbers have spiked when they end up in a verbal stoush. So tomorrow night you get Dutton's supply speech, maybe as

early as Friday, we get an election. On Monday, we'll find out whether the interest rates are going to drop, and then on Tuesday or Wednesday we will find out whether we're going to be further into issues when it

comes to tariff with Donald Trump. All of those things are going to be much more consequential in terms of how the politics works, what the conversations are around the kitchen table, Because I would pretty much guarantee that most of those people who knew nothing about the budget certainly know something about Donald Trump. But one thing that has absolutely changed, and I told you, I'll tell you when it happened. The book is are now backing Labor as

the favorite for this election. So now what we are going to be talking about is a most likely outcome that Labour gets returned. Now, all suggestions would be that it would be in a minority. How big that number of cross benches are, who the Prime Minister would need to hold on to power, Well, that will be the difference between whether it's going to be relatively stable or total train wreck. Just two weeks ago, the Libs were in front by some margin. Weeks ago, the Labor Party

was paying closer to three dollars than one dollar. Now they're closer to one dollar than two. Well, actually they're closer to two, but you get my point. Now, there is in my view, only one number that truly will live forever out of this federal budget. And I don't care how it goes down with the media. I care about how it goes down with you, me and future generations. One trillion dollars in debt in this next financial year. That is how much the Australian federal government will go

to the rest of the world. That works out at for a baby born yesterday and a person who will die tomorrow, thirty six thousand, six hundred and seventeen dollars per person. That number goes up to one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars for every person who is under the age of eighteen. That number is a disgrace. As I said, the battle of this budget is going to be will you remember five dollars in a year's time?

You remember are trillion dollars now. But let's talk about how the media focused in and around this budget after being locked up for hours and wanting to do their best to continue the narrative that things are looking better for the government, so much so that the bookies now have them as the favorites. So what did they focus on. Did they focus on five dollars in a year's time or are trillion dollars that Australia has to pay back sometime?

extraordinary number. It's an extraordinary number that you would think would be worth mentioning. But no left Laura Tingle Well, she of course had her opportunity to sit there for a few hours and write a little thing before THEBC coverage last night, and this was her coverage when it came to the budget. Put simply, the Labor Party could have written this themselves. This is straight down the middle analysis.

outline tonight. That is, the government strategy has worked. The seventeen billion dollar tax cuts announced in the budget, which had not been expected, will give angry voters, particularly those who have been disillusioned and disengaged, a reason to at least pay a little more attention. The forecasts suggest, if not some this uplands a slightly kinder economy in the next year or two, in which people will enjoy lower interest rates more disposable income. The government scores pretty well

in this budget. The budget gives the government an alibi for most issues going into the election campaign, which will make the coalition's critiques of its strategy look somewhat pallid.

somewhat pallid. Higher migration is already a target of the Coalition and this forecast is likely to be an easy point of attack as it considers how it responds to this budget and to alls us what it says it will do.

for much of the Camper press gallery. Now there are exceptions, and I apologize to those people of whom sometimes they get painted with the very broad brush. But the extreme majority of people who will be reporting on this election want Labor to win. You can tell that because they had an opportunity last night to choose between five dollars in a year's time or a trillion dollars in debt

that will rack up this year. Thankfully there was an example of somebody who was willing to take it right up to the treasurer and well done to my mate Andrew Clanel. But I'll get to that in a second. But first, Jim Charmas, just how much money will the Australian Federal government of you as the Treasurer owe to the rest of the world.

Wellandrew is famous for the questions that he asks at press conferences, and there was a big one today with the Treasurer inside the Great Hall of Parliament House.

You've just delivered a budget which forecasts a decade of deficits, a tree and dollars debt, the next four deficits of one hundred and seventy nine bon dollars. My question, treasurer, is do you feel like a hypocrite today?

In their first budget, they took fifteen hundred dollars off ten million workers with a load of middle income tax offset are guaranteed fifteen one hundred dollars tax return for ten million workers, only to say, well, twenty five dollars a month when it comes to power bill, five dollars when it comes to a tax return in a year's time, or the ones that they want to add them to like last year were twelve dollars twelve dollars a week

for people earning forty thousand dollars. They spend more money on government advertising about the politics of what they are doing, rather than spending on things like making sure that we can feed the more than three point seven midion households, and that's people households that don't know where the food's going to come from for the rest of the week.

There was nothing in the budget to discuss anything about the almost three million people that are this close to homelessness and small business will it got bashed around the head. One of the very few things that small business has been able to rely upon over the past few years is I think called the instant asset right off, meaning that if you buy something for your business, you can write it off against your tax. At the height of the pandemic, you were able to do this too, up

to one hundred thousand dollars. It meant that people were able to buy a car, claim it or go off their tax, and that if all you do is drive around in new ute, that's really important. Then went back to twenty thousand dollars and under this budget there is no reference to it going forward into the future. And just on that trillion dollar figure that Jim Chalmers now has to wear around his neck, not as like a gold medal like the bloke he used to work for.

Wayne Swan is the world's greatest treasurer, but the bloke who took us into the trillion dollar black hole. Even when he was confronted with his own words, even after he did the pivot, he still found a way to blame the Liberals.

It's also particularly focused and very popular with young men as the major way that they stay informed about the rest of the world. And for those of us who like to think we're still young, we still try to connect via many of these pieces of information on top of everything else that we watch and read. Well, last night, there were a bunch of people who were very fresh to the budget process, and these were influencers. These were people who maybe don't always talk about politics, but Stotomson's

talk about politics. But if nothing else, have got hundreds of thousands and they probably millions of people who follow them on social media. Now, whether that's all real people or some bots. But the point is they were there and they were paid to get there by the Labor Party. The Labor Party itself was paying for many of these people to travel from around the country to get to

the budget. Now, if I wanted to go there to on it, it wouldn't be the Labor Party to be paying for it, of course, it would be by myself, for of course, the company of which I work. So how did the gold treatment go for the influencers who generally in this country lean to the left. Well, he's part of their budget coverage.

And that person's job is to do social media for their bosses, that being ministers or MPs and for those that are doing it on the labor side. I repeat, cringe.

at pm on air. Otherwise, the mothership is always sky News dot Com. The YouTube is there as well. Broma Bishop carry out a champ on Wednesday. Jeezy thinks he gets close, but he's always just that one shot behind Stephen Conry, who's here to help every time. I love it. All right, let's get into this, okay. Now, first questions. First, does a trillion dollars in debt matter Bromwin Bishop, because to me that's the number out of the budget that I remember, not five dollars in a year's time.

in the private sector. Ask the question, how do you find the private sector? Well, it includes the NDAs.

been added to it all the rest. Can I just ask, like if possible, Stephen thirty second explanation rather than is it big? Is it low? Right? Do you have to pay off off budget the same way you on budget? Is it essentially a separate credit card? Is it the same credit card? Because obviously how does that work?

found in some mysterious little part of Parliament House. She was attending a press conference and have a look what happened. When Channel seven decided to follow up, Can I ask you.

from now. Thanks for watching back in a second, our favorite time of the week to talk to our favorite person in the world, the wonderful Meghan Kelly, exclusive to Paul Burray Live, and she's back from the Bahamas.

into a plant. He's performing in the play. And is it true that at the end of the play he turns around and just starts lecturing the audience.

where he was across from Michelle Pfeiffer. She was really more the star, and he played a reporter for the New York Daily News that was thirty years ago. I guess he thinks it makes him into an actual journalist or you know, editor of a newsroom, which he's not. And he goes on sixty minutes to promote this thing, and they ask him about his truth to power op ed that he did in the New York Times when Biden was dangling by a thread and George Glooney stepped

in to cut it. And this is presented to us now as an exercise and true courage, true truth telling. And really it took a lot, you know. They got into like what made him do it? Like how did he have it in him to write that op ed? And the answer was, well, I was raised to value the truth. I was raised to tell the truth, not lies. There are a lot of people in my party were telling lies.

Cliney said nothing. Did he come out and say, no, all those reporters and those media folks who are saying, look, he looks like he's really having some infirmity problems are onto something. I've got to be honest. You know what I saw dovetails with that perfectly and we need to talk about it. Did he anonymously go to some reporter to say, please print the real story about what happened at that at that fundraiser. No, he did none of that.

What actually happened was June twenty seventh came and they had the presidential debate in which Biden self immolated and ruined any future chances of remaining the nominee, which I said that night. As you may remember, it was very obvious that he could not go forward, and yet Biden hung on because he just was stubborn. He would not leave. The whole party was in meltdown. The polls came in showing he couldn't win, there was no chance he could win,

and that Kamala wouldn't win either. That's what the Democrats were looking at. And it was only at that point that George Clooney, midway into July, now a full month after he had hosted that fundraiser, wrote the op ed because at that point he realized the Democrats' chances depended on it. And now, with the help of CBS News, in sixty minutes, it's all rewritten and gift wrapped into I was raised to tell the truth and we need more courageous people like me in my party and in

the media. Thank you, and you know sold right. The bill of goods sold.

it's all about like city kids. Okay, well, that's a different problem. Like kids who grow up in the hood who don't have opportunity. That's different. That's not about the young men. That's about growing up poor with no advantages surrounded by crime, which is a different problem needs to be solved. They don't know what they're doing. They don't understand why they've lost them, Paul. They don't understand that it's everything they've made their party about, Like it's you

have to redo everything. The guy in Connecticut, Ned Lamont, was like, I'm expanding DEI to include young men. I think that's something everyone can get behind. Wrong, sir, Wrong, DEI is how you lost them. The young men hate DEI. They are sick and tired of showing up at school assemblies that are Black History Month, Gay Pride Month, Women's History Month, Indigenous People's Month. They're sick of this shit.

They are over identity politics in every way. They are sick and tired of not getting jobs when they graduate from good colleges. They're sick and tired of getting perfect four point zeros and perfect sat scores and not getting into top tier schools because they happen to have white

skin and be boys. They are sick and tired of having being a man, taking risks, being masculine, having testosterone flow through your veins, and not be ashamed of it, be shamed, be demonized, be castigated by a turn of the nose or a casual reference, or absolutely no empathy for the problem of male depression or male suicide, or when someone dares speak out about it, like a Jordan Peterson, they get mocked as you just lead a bunch of

in cells like those loser men who can't get some. Well, you're not going to get some unless you respect women. Let me do what I want while I spend your money unapologetically all that like this, This is the new version of female empowerment. They don't understand why they're loathed their weakness. It's pathetic, it's ugly, it's a turn off.

They're having dei for white men whatever that means, ned ain't it And they're not going to get it until they get a real man with actual testosterone in his veins, who would never be caught dead in a man bun carrying a merse to lead their party back into full masculinity. Only then will these young men even give them a second look.