From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. You know, a modern misconception of the husky gens is that this just happens overnight. No, No, this only happens when you commit. And I committed every single day, certainly of high school Sausage roll, cheese twists, chocolate moves all day, every day and look at the result. Look at my body is a temple, you know, one of those mind ones right at the back of the jungle. That's mine. All right, We've got a lot to get to tonight, including Sunday
Nights hardcore night for politics. This is when we get right into it, all the detail they'll be talking about for the next week or so when it comes to the state of the race. Yeah, we've got to get it ready for the budget can Honestly, the spending is ludicrous. They want a gold Star for twenty five dollars a months off your power bill, fit income and how good. Oscar Perstoria is the next dozy, looking like he's on
his way to big success in Formula one. He won in China today, figures cross he'll be able to get over Lando and be the world champion by the end of the year. All right. Now, as we know, the greatest Prime minister of all time, he's not focused on upgrades for himself when it comes to personal travel. He's not interested in making sure that he's got a multimillion dollar retirement plan just in case you the electorate, don't
give him seventeen terms as prime minister. No. No, he's a person who is focused, like us, on the number one issue in the country.
A plan to address cost of living. Take pressure off cost of living, pressure off the cost of living, the cost of living, cost of living, cost of living, relief downward pressure on cost of living.
And I don't know about you, but you know ourbonomics has worked, hasn't it. I mean he promised at the start of the last campaign that everything can be cheaper. And I don't know about you. I mean everything's gone down since election. I know that's right. That's just Australian's confidence and trust in government. Now we also know today about just who was being taken care of and focused today. The real priority when it comes to cost of living
was it small business? Where today you could read a story that ossie couples who run small businesses they've had to go without money to keep their own businesses afloat. In fact, self employed small business owners are paying themselves less at the same time as inflation to smash their buying power, resulting in an eighteen percent collapse in real income for somebody who owns a small business since Labor
took office. The decline comes as food prices, energy insurance, rent and wage increases of all fueled a surge in hospitality businesses, which have shuttered at an our nine point three percent rate in February. That is, of all of the businesses, almost ten percent in small business, particularly focused in and around restaurants they've closed on. It wasn't their cost of living? What about the effects that the cost
living crisis has had on poorer and vulnerable Australians. Was that the focus is that what we're going to be having a national conversation about in the next few days. Well, No, even though there's an article that you could read today, available online, available in the newspapers that shows the cost of living crunch has actually resulted in an increase in child neglect. Australia's cost living crisis has been linked to a record three hundred and seven and twenty two child
abuse and neglect notifications. Can I just repeat that number, three hundred and seven thousand neglect notifications. That's up twelve percent over the past two years. Why inflation difficult is when it comes to somewhere to live, either the one that you're renting or the one that you were paying for. No, no, no, no no. Today the Prime Minister was out there fighting for the cost of living of lazy public servants. Now, not all public servants are lazy, but push there's an
awful lot of them that are. This is after, of course he's already hired an extra thirty nine thousand of them. And as we know, the Coalition is planning to bring the public sector back to pre COVID levels. Oh e, they're going to trim some of the fat. They think that Australia does not need an extra forty thousand public servants doing the jobs on top of the hundreds of thousands that already cost us billions and billions of dollars
each in every year. In fact, here is the shadow Finance spokesperson whom, if don't becomes Prime Minister, will be in charge of the public service.
We think that the thirty six thousand public servants that have been brought on haven't demonstrated that the improvements to the put to the services to the public have been corresponding. We think we can bring it back down to levels that were at the end of COVID, not the beginning of COVID, I might add at the end of COVID.
And part of what they want to do is to get public servants to go back to the office that is already paid for by the tax. You see, not just because they're nasty and evil, but they want people to go back so that all the cafes, the restaurants, all of the businesses, the cleanings, all the rest of it that actually service those buildings will be able to
remain employed on and over. The Prime Minister has come out today and his focus while Grimjim's twenty five dollars a month power nonsense is what they want to distract you with today, he says that getting more public servants than ever before to stay working at home will help
them with the cost of living. You see. One of the reasons why a public servant doesn't have to go back to the office that we're already paying for is because they would have to use some of their own money to get to work, just like every other person who has to get themselves to work, let alone a small business who of course is going backwards out of
this government. But sh nothing to see here. Here's the Prime Minister picking the cushy life of a public servant over small business and over kids in neglect today because this is what he chose to talk about.
Working from home has enabled them to work full time and therefore it has increased workforce participation.
This guy, this guy. Now, after the budget this week, the expectation is the election could be called as early as next weekend. We will have Peter Dutton at a special pub test on the following Monday, so not this but next Monday in his electorate. I want you to check out the questions of people have got because we've got a nice full room and people got plenty of
questions for the alternative prime minister. Of course, the media between now and then will do everything they can to boost the current Prime Minister, trying to pretend you that everything is better, despite the fact that while every indiccy from child abuse to small businesses have shown that this joint has gone backwards fast under the current mob. Which brings us to the buyoffs that are planned for this week. Forget what they promised three years ago that cost living
would be cheaper. No, no, no, no, no, the government now, so we'll just hand out billions more on top of the billions already promised. Now, as you know, labor is the side of politics that decided to get rid of the energy system that worked, and it worked for decades because, of course it was powered by coal. Evil, awful, nasty coal. You know, the type of stuff that the Ukraine has been asking us to send them to help power their country in a time of war. No, no, we're better
than that. So we decided to blow up what worked before we had spent the hundreds of billions of dollars to replace it with what now we know does not. We also know that this is the government that, in one of their first acts as government, decided to have everyone stand around as they signed a piece of paper saying that we will now set a law in this country that Australia will cut forty three percent of one percent of the world's emissions, and we will in part
do it with more than eighty percent renewable energy. Of course, they say that it's the cheapest form of energy, and it may it will be in thirty years time, but right now it has to be built. And as you know, it's tens of thousands of solar panels each and every day. Oh yeah, made by slave labor in China, but sh wind farms hundreds of thousands of those that will be needed, both onshore offshore. Bug of the birds. Who cares about
the dolphins? And I know we must destroy the earth in order to save the atmosphere, And all of this was apparently going to cut your power bills. Now, I won't play the same thing that we've played hundreds of times since the last election. But you remember the promise to seventy five teeth, eventy five teeth, eventy five teeth
aventy five. That was the promise that basically, take your power bill from May of twenty twenty two compared to the one in May or right now, what at the end of March April of twenty twenty five, and it'll be two hundred and seventy five dollars cheaper. Why because we've moved from that evil, awful coal and we've replaced it with all the stuff that is so much cheaper. The only problem is the cost of transition the CSIO once told us was trillion dollars, but now they say
it's half a trillion dollars. But apparently we all know that it's a little higher than that, and of course it has all of the destruction that goes with it. But because they have failed to deliver on that promise, and again I say it for the unpdeenth time, Tony Abbott promised in twenty thirteen to stop the boats if he had not stopped the boats, but in fact more boats were turning up by twenty sixteen, unless, of course
the ghost had already knifed him. What do you think the reaction would have been of the Camber Press gallery. Apparently this promise just doesn't matter. It's never mattered to them because it was lipstick on the pig. It's exactly the same policy that Bill Shorten was defeated in with two thousand and nineteen. But in twenty twenty two, if we tell everyone they're going to get a power bill cut,
they'll vote for it, and they did so. They either screwed up or they lied, and I think it's pretty obvious that they lied right and twelve months ago when they were delivering what they then thought would be final budget ahead of what they were planning. Could be an early election as soon as the back half of last year, but definitely not as late this year. But we all know that the storms have cost the federal budget one
point two billion dollars. Okay Radio. They made a promise, and that promise was that they would pay three hundred dollars off everyone's power bill, and then you start doing the sums. Well, of course, most people pay their power bills quarterly, so that was like seven hundred and seventy five dollars, and then if you divide that between the number of months that are in a quarter, it's twenty
five dollars twenty five dollars a month. And there's no means testing, meaning the biggest mansion with the most cashed up person in Australia they got the same relief as somebody that was on the bones of their backside in a shack in the bush, because you could be bothered administering this policy. What of course they wanted was a multi billion dollar slogan for an election that a tax cut for every Australian, Sure, the people who needed it.
It was fourti dollars a week, and a power bill cut for every Australian for those who needed it again just twenty five dollars a month. All of this costs multiple billions of dollars, and they don't give you the money.
They pay the power bills of the power companies that just happened to, in many cases be the same companies that are getting government subsidies to spend the hundreds of billions of dollars to build the new electricity grid that fingers cross one day will be cheaper than what currently works. And if you've been paying any attention to the inconsistencies in this then you, of course are the problem. We
are the climate deniers. Of course, I've never denied that if you have seven eight billion people on the planet, multiple industrial revolutions, that you're probably going to do something to the natural ecosystem. And certainly Australia is part of a globe and needs to do it's bit. But if we're one percent of the world's problem, one percent of the world's problem, we should look to countries like say
China that are thirty something percent of the problem. When do they have to get to net zero twenty fifty like us on a hotel twenty sixty. The United States has done the hokey pokey both being out and then in and then out and then in of the Paris Agreement, and they're what twenty something percent, so they're not agreeing to this system. And then there's the third world developing countries, the Global South, a's the lefties like to call them.
They don't have to apply to this either. Then there's India, then there's Russia, and countries like China get to call themselves developing countries. So again, despite the fact they've got a space station and have held the Olympics twice this century, No, no, no, no, they must be treated like the country like a country
in Africa that can't keep its head above water. Of course, so Australia signs the piece of paper and continues on a path despite the fact that wha more than half, we're kind of getting our close to two thirds, but let's say over half of the planet is not playing
the same game that we're playing. But this government, of course says that there is a moral need for us to do this, So they can go off and either go to climate conferences or spend hundreds of millions of dollars for US to host climate conferences because you see, they don't care because they're the ones that have got three pay rises, promises on six hundred grand ministers on
four hundred thousand dollars. Most of the people in charge of the businesses or spinning for the businesses, or the ones setting the rules, they've got hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Oh small business, whatever, But can I have a lard a place or how's everything going? Oh
that's a shame, isn't it. Well, today they are going to extend the system that has already been there for the past twelve months and they're going to extend it for another six months, which means the media called this out for what it is, right, twenty five bucks a month on No, the government made an announcement, so you need to have the biggest number possible and did in the media love this one to day, every Sydney household will receive a further one hundred and fifty dollars off
their power bills. Latest offering one hundred and fifty dollars off power bill.
Now the one hundred and fifty dollars rebate, so it'll be a one hundred and fifty dollars rebate and.
Your major pledge by the federal government to bring down soaring energy prices.
One hundred and fifty dollars rebate applied to their power bills.
So you see, they think you're so stupid that they've cut your power bill by three hundred dollars in the past twelve months, and now it's going to be an extra one hundred and fifty So they've technically brought power down by four hundred and fifty bucks. Right, No, twenty five dollars are quarter for multiple quarters that go to a year, and now they're going to push it through for another six months. So the Prime Minister spins it like this.
And it follows the seventy five dollars, another seventy five, another seventy five, and another seventy five that they've received this year.
Twenty five, twenty five, twenty five, twenty five. There's lots of ways you can cut the number, but the reality is people either pay a quarterly bill or they pay a monthly bill. But either way, seventy five dollars paid to the power company to not pass on the increases. It's kind of the whole point. It also creates about zero point five percent reduction in the overall number when
it comes to inflation. Now, as you know, inflation, if it is between two and three percent, the preserved Bank's fine. If it's above three percent, well they keep interest rates high. And interest rates have gone up twelve times under this government. Oh sorry, they've come down once since, saving you a grand total of one hundred bucks, when it's already cost you tens of thousands of dollars extra to pay off
your home under this mob. And now they again think you're so stupid that you won't notice that the power bill that I told you to keep on the fridge from the last election, and if it was two hundred and seventy five dollars lower than that number, then guess what you should vote? Labor. Well, the reality is that, of course it's many hundreds of dollars. In fact, the one thousand dollars or thousands of dollars higher if you
happen to be in a small business. But Jim Chalmers doesn't think that you even pay attention to the bills that you pay. He thinks you've got some sort of autopay and you'll never really notice, they think that you'll fall for the nonsense of where you have helped people four hundred and fifty dollars with their power bills when the actual thing is twenty five dollars a month and the cost of power has gone up way more than twenty five dollars a month since this mob came to power.
But Jim charmers again, I repeat, he thinks you aren't even paying attention to your own bills, because what about this garbage he was spraying around today.
Don't forget, in the last year to December and the official inflation data, electricity prices went down by twenty five percent.
And you know what that reduction is. That reduction is the amount that the government has been paying the power bills. So don't forget power bills are coming down. But hang on, aren't you paying the power bills not to pass on some of the increase? Sh nobody's going to notice he's claiming power bills are going down when what was that story that was in that far right wing publication, the Sidony Molner Huru. In fact, from July, power bills are
expected to go up by two hundred dollars. This is on top of the ones that went up last year or the year before or the year before that. They do think you're that stupid. I certainly hope that the election will remind them. No, well now, and you can't buy me off with twenty five dollars a month, which brings me to another thing to remind you, please be here on Tuesday night. Tuesday night, nine thirty astraight in eastern day light time eight thirty in Queensland is when
we are going to have our budget show. Now, I've done these for fifteen years, and you know that over fifteen years, generally speaking, there's the reaction that comes out of camera, and that's fine. They've sat around all day pretending that they're studying an exam. I've been in those rooms. They're not studying an exam. There's double checking what everyone
else is going to report. And generally speaking, if it's a labor government, they take whatever numbers they give and they say completely fine, there's no suspicion about the numbers whatsoever. There of course will be no issue whatsoever that a government that claimed they were better than the Liberal Party they went from deficit to surplus surplus. But of course we know now that it is going to go back
into deficits. And remember, every single dollar in deficit is added to every previous deficit of every government in the history of this country. And certainly we know that debt was way down, if not completely gone, under Howard. So we're talking about every budget deficit of Rudd, of Gillard, of Rudd, of Abbot, of Turbul, of Morrison, and now of Albaneze. In fact, the is some expectation that there is going to end up being as high as twenty
billion dollars when it comes to the budget deficit. Now I think that's just a bit of spin and it will probably end up being seven billions, so therefore it's not as bad as twenty Well, every dollar in deficit is added to every other previous one, So if you've got a trillion dollars worth of debt, it'll be a trillion and twenty billion dollars worth of debt. Jim Chalmers fourth budget it will feature an underlying deficit of about twenty billion, but once these off budget items are properly
accounted for, it the real deficit is almost double. Remember I've told you about that before, that there's a whole bunch of stuff that they will have in those budget documents, and then there's a whole bunch of staff that they don't put in those budget documents despite the fact that they still are borrowing money from overseas to pay for them. So the actual increase in the deficit will not be five billion, will not be ten billion, but will probably
be one hundred billion dollars. According again to the Financial Review, who've kept a pretty strong on our eye on all of this, they claim there is off budget spending of one hundred billion dollars by this government. So there's all the money that they're going to tell us about on Tuesday, and then there's all the money they're hiding from you,
which could be one hundred billion dollars extra. This is the stuff that is an investment, but the reality is that it's all borrow money, and borrow money will be part of the Australian economic story for the next one, two, three, four decades. The Prime Minister wants to talk about seventy five dollars, seventy five dollars, seventy five dollars when he's looking back at what eighteen months of trying to fool people when it comes to their budget savings from power
bills that are already going up. That then, of course fakes an inflation number that they then turn around and use to tell the Reserve Bank you must cut interest rates, when the actual reality is that if Australia wasn't spending as much money as it is on public servants, then we would be in a recession. The only way that our country is slightly moving forward is because of the amount of government money that is being spent, including this
one hundred billion dollars that's off budget. And if you think again, I'm just making up this number that we're going to be in a budget deficit for the next forty years. Yet again, I show you the Intergenerational Report produced by Jim Charmers buy the same people who will make the budget on Tuesday. Every one of those lines inside that red box is a deficit, and you see how bad they get. We're forty years from now when apparently our population will be what ten fifteen million people
more than it currently is. Fifteen million more tax payers most likely to be brought into the country rather than people who end up getting born here because people don't have as many kids as they used to. That's the real picture of the budget. That's why you should join
us Tuesday night. Cut the spin, cut the bs. We'll get straight through it, I promise you Tuesday Night, straight after the coverage from camera US nine point thirty and in fact we're doing a ninety minute show all the way to eleven o'clock, a straight ANEC in daylight time late debate after that, so no one's missing out on
Budget Night. But be here in the front row because I'm going to hit this one for six when it comes to the latest numbers and we're getting to a state at the race in the moment or two time, you should know THEO is some few poles around the latest ones. Again they start to show things get being slightly better for the Labor Party. But let's look at this thing state by state, because while currently it's like fifty one forty nine might be the Libs way, might
be Labour's way. One of the things that is propping up the Labour Party right now is a pretty solid vote outside of New South Wales and Victoria and Queensland. In fact, once you look at Western Australia it is fifty five forty five. When you have a look at South Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Act forty six. But the reason that the government could lose certainly its majority and possibly government is because they are behind in Victoria fifty one forty nine. That'd be a few seats in the
chain's hands. In New South Wales they are way behind fifty two forty eight, and they are behind Daylight fifty five to forty five in Queensland. Watch this space if you want a little more detail, we can get into the primary vote. If you'd really like to remember. Thirty three percent nationally is what Labour had last time to form government. They were, of course, the lowest they had been in one hundred years. It's now down to thirty. The Libs are up to thirty nine, the magical number
of there's a four in front of it. They would be likely to win an election. News of Whales are prom we vote forty two. Queensland primary vote forty two for the coalition. Labour Party's best state right now Western Australia thirty five percent. Now that's good because from their perspective they've got four seats in risks. They may only
end up losing one. But if you're going to lose way more than one in New soth Wales, or in Victoria or in Queensland, you're not going to be able to hold on to a majority, let alone government at all. Number one issue doesn't matter what the state is. Cost of living. Second biggest issue housing. Now there's a real opportunity for Peter Dunton in his budget and reply speech which happens on Thursday, What if anything can he do to help people buy a house or to pay for
a house when it comes to rent. One of the ways you can do that is, of course to dramatically slash immigration, which he's doing. One of the things he's promising to do in his first term is to guarantee that there will be no foreign buyers. Good. He's promising that as well. That's what he promised twelve months ago and that became popular with seventy three percent of people in marginal electorates. Yes, I know he's behind a bit at the moment in terms of what the media say
is happening in the election, but wa'ts this space. He's got a big chance Thursday day. Meantime, when it comes to the preferred Prime Minister, Anthony Ebernezi up forty four to Dunton's forty three. But hang on, I thought he was unelectable yet one point margin of error, by the way, in this poll is what three percent almost four percent or five percent in terms of the Western Australian numbers
forty four apiece in New South Wales? Are they leading in Victoria by three points, behind in Queensland by two up in Western Australia and up across the rest of the state. Pay attention. That's what we do each and every night here on the show, and we will certainly pay attention in a moment or two's time when it comes to the state of the race. Looking forward to that Sunday night, hardcore politics each and every week here on Paulmray Life. A couple of other things away from politics.
Pope Francis is up and about and likely to be released from hospital in the next few days. Incredible story for the Pontiff. Remember he was apparently very close to death's door. Now some Vatican officials are saying that was never the case. But if that wasn't the case, why berg cardinals being called back to the Vatican. Excellent piece of news. So thoughts and prayers if that's your thing. Certainly seem to have helped Pope Francis. As I mentioned before,
the great Oscar Piastre. He didn't just win the Chinese Formula one Grand Prix, he beat his own teammates, so same car, same quality by almost ten seconds. He's also busin he and in the United States we know there are too many lunatics who think the best way to get back of Donald Trump and the person trying to make their government more efficient in Elon Musk is to
set fire to the cars that Elon Musk makes. Now, of course, Elon Musk popularized the electronic car so much so that he forced all of the major car companies to start making them again. But no, no, no, no, he's maga. Now he's dark maga. And twenty percent of Americans now say that they are boycotting any sort of business with any connection to the Trump world because you know,
they're better than us. Right. Also, one of the things that was worth noticing was one of the dreams that writing people in the United States have had some time is for the abortion issue to go back to the States. He did that, and then the first sorry in the period of time where of course he got the majority of people under the Supreme Court, they send it back to the states and guess what, he didn't pay a
price for it in an election. And also many people have said it should be states that decide how the education system works in those states. And yes, there's still money that goes from the federal Department of Education into things like school lunch programs, and that will still go to the states, but there won't be a federal Department of Education. And hasn't that got the left is just all asunder goodness may how's this for some duds?
In a twist, people who can read and understand what they're doing to medicaid, to Social Security, what Elon Musk is doing. The better you're reading comprehension is the more you might not like what this administration is doing. So an educated citizenry is not in their interest.
So they want Americans to be dumber. According to this bloke's logic, what's his position when it comes to legal marijuana in more than thirty states where people are stoned, they could be smart people, they could be dumb people, but they're still stoned, So you're cool with that. But if the state government is in charge of your education of the federal government. The sky's falling in. Welcome to Lefty Logic. Quick break back with more state of the race.
It's the deep dive in the politics you need to know, ahead of the budget, ahead of the election. Thanks for watching us here Sunday night on Paul Murray Life. Geez, I'm feeling good tonight. I had a ripping weekend. You want to know why I had a ripping weekend? Sorry, just waiting for you to talk. Here's the deal. Cleaned out the garage like the full proper one, like organizing, even making sure that all the right screws were in the little thing that I'll never open again because I'm
not a handyman. You know, I'll fix the whole thing. Pressure washing. It was fantastic. Even put together shelves and reorganize the garden shed at the back. Why, I don't know, but I feel good because I know that we're getting ready for election. We're into warm but next week. But you know what makes me feel even better than that? About to talk to these blokes. Cost Samrus from Redbridge, of course, the premiere polling and strategic company that talks to voters as well as as well as bring some
numbers back. Obviously News Poll that's the hometown team. But I really like these guys too, cos Sam Marus joins us and the man who I know because I saw some social media he wasn't cleaning out his garage, none of than Michael Kroger. You know you can get your son to do that, but you know that feeling that wonderful clean garage freely. I got it now, I got
it now. Yep. All right, So let's get to a few things, including by the way, when we talk about red Bridge, this is how much work they do, right, There's like sixty something pages the most recent one that comes at it. So it's not just the stuff you're reading the paper. It's all the data, all the numbers that are after all of it, and coause I want to talk about something before we start to talk about
numbers and poles and all the rest of it. I want to talk about focus groups, meaning the people you are talking to around the country. Clearly we know that something has changed. What are they saying about what has changed in the past couple of couple of months. Because I'm noticing in some of the deep dives here what used to be sort of fifty two forty eight becomes fifty to fifty becomes fifty two forty eight the other way. What are they saying about the past couple of months.
It depends where you are.
I mean, if you were in West Australia, maybe parts of New South Wales, definitely in South Australia, you know you were looking at the current government and you weren't happy with it, right, But you're looking, well, maybe there's a better option, and they're not really getting the better option, right because you know, at the moment I defined the campaign like the nineteen eighty six Mike Tyson fight with Trevor Berdwick, where basically you're waiting for Trevor to to
land a blow you into the second round and it ain't lasted two.
Rounds, right, Yeah, good point, right, And so that's what's.
Going on right now, not getting any alternative from from an economic perspective. Yes, we go to Victoria, particularly Victoria, but also parts of the New Suppose again as well, and it gets pretty grim for labor.
So there's a lot of nuance here.
People are still very very i would say, angry at the labor brand in Victoria. It doesn't matter where we go, whether it's in Melbourne Regional Victoria, it's pretty bad.
So it depends where you Yeah, I mean, are there places again, so let's let's let's speak specifically about those populous areas GISs of Wales, Victoria. Are there people who might have been either on the fence or lukeworm who are turning around saying Albert can't stand him or you know, I kind of like that in a couple, can't stand him. Are you hearing any any of that where people are starting to move into that, Oh okay, you're a definite yes or a definite no.
Not really right, and so hence why at the moment it's tightened in favor of labor. But the vote on both sides is still very soft. So we could see a situation that one starton gets his campaign up and running and starts talking about the economy, then maybe we will see the numbers come back a bit.
I still think it's going to be minority government some sort right now.
If you were to force me to choose, if it was to be held today, it would be a labor minority government.
But it's so tenuous it could flip within two weeks.
All right, newspole has just dropped on the Australian newspaper. I know that the competitor, but let me tell you what their number is, fifty one to forty nine in favor of the coalition. The primary vote for the coalition now thirty nine percent. Remember they have a four in front of it. They win elections general normal elections. Thirty nine. Well, best they've been in a long time. Labor back to
thirty one. One nation at seven percent. Now there are polls anywhere now the last election they got five percent one nation. Now it's seven in some poles. Nine pay attention. Greens haven't moved anywhere. Twelve percent better Prime Minister and easy fifty sorry forty five to Dutton's forty fifteen percent of people no idea. And again basically their analysis is worth reading at another point in time, Michael, you'd be happy that that's tomorrow's headline. Coalitions still in front after
multiple weeks of people saying what's going on? What's going on?
Yeah, well, there's that out in my mind that the Coalition has slowed over the last month, and that's reflected in the polls. But knowing the odd thing here or there, I look at Labor, and I think they've probably played their biggest card, which was their Medicare deal. I mean Medicare funning. That was the biggest card. I mean they've got they've got two cards they play. They'll play in this election. Number one, the Liberals are going to sell off Medicare, privatize it whatever whatever.
I mean.
Malcolm was doing that in two sixteen. As we'll remember at nine years on, it still hasn't happened. And the second card they play, as the second card they play, of course, is the secret Cuts. I've seen this card played in many, many times. It's a good one actually, because people fear the unknown, and the secret Liberal cuts is one where they've trotted out of the ad end state campaign here. They tried every few elections. So when Labor have for no real cards to play, there the
two cards, and they're effective. I'm not sure the meny caare one will work this time because people don't like being conned and they know they were conned in sixteen. And the secret cuts. I think everyone realizes. The budgets in a shocking position. I mean Netdad is increasing two hundred billion in the next few years, So I don't know where Jim Chalmers gets all these figures from. He's
put in a shaka. So I think the cab before the storm is the fact that the Coalition have kept most of their policies over the last month despite being goaded. And I think Darton is going to edge your head when he from Thursday onwards.
Yeah, as I said Budget and Reply speech, which brings me to the question of who has the most pressure on them right now. I think it is frankly Peter Dunton in relation to Thursday, because we know the story in and around Charmers, right, Chalmers is literally telling people, oh, no, power prices are down by twenty five percent, and they're
not down by twenty five percent. There's this artificial thing that the government's doing which feeds into inflation, which feeds into their arguments in and around in relation to say the Reserve Bank. Right, anyone actually paying attention, well, you
know the fallacy of all of that. But obviously for Peter Duddon, the reason Thursday is such a big opportunity cause is because you've got thirty minutes, thirty minutes certainly here at sky and nears thirty thirty minutes over there on taxpayer telly where no one's going to interrupt you. It's not an interview, it's not a press conference. You've got your thirty minutes to have some big ideas. First year was nuclear power, Second was immigration and the foreign
buyers stuff, right. Third, well it has to be this amount of money, this idea, some big stuff, because otherwise you can keep pointing to the binfire that is the other one. But unless you're promising to bring some water to put it out, well they're going to stick with the bin fire, aren't they.
Yeah, that's right.
I mean it's basically, you know, come Thursday, it does don't come out with a very significant package of economic reform that captures the hearts and minds of the sort of people that we're talking about now. These are you know, thirty something forty something year olds in the outer suburbs of particularly Sydney Melbourne who are feeling the pinch, not really happy with the current labor government, not really convinced
about what the coalition has to offer. And if he's able to actually put forward a narrative that is digestible that it actually shakes the cage quite a lot in terms of, hey, this guy is going to actually really change the way this country functions.
Then they'll start listening. And this is why Thursday is so important for it.
Yeah, I've got that feeling, Michael, that they're in a scenario where you shake the cage the right way, you turn fifty to fifty into fifty two forty eight your way, you shake the cage the wrong way, or obviously the hysterical interpretation of it, it ends up going fifty two forty eight the other way. Thursday, what's the threshold? What do you need? Because he's not going to stand there and be able to produce seven hundred page economic document.
But whatever his version of that, that that you know, little pamphlet that they all walk around with with our economic plan, He's got to hold that up on Thursday, doesn't he.
Yeah.
Look, I'd like to say Charms has got more to lose, but I actually think Peter's got more to lose because DUTs and s DUTs his favorite to win the election. Now, he's the favorite in the betting market, in the polls, he's the book Peter Dutton is favorite to win the election. So you know, what's what's Jim going to say on Tuesday Night? Well, you know, I don't think he's a big performer.
He cur't really talk.
He's one hundred and fifty dollars energy rebate well, as people have been saying on skoy tonight, everyone knows he's giving them back a small proportion of the money that they've had to pay in increased bills. So energy is not really an election winner for Labor. And you'll notice Chris Bowen has disappeared from the national stage in the last month or so, so I think Peter Dutton has got more to lose because, as you say, the economic
narrative and people need money. They want to see reform, they want to see change, they want to see relief, they want to see a pathway forward, and that hasn't quite frankly been a strong point of the coalitions over the last couple of years. They've kept their powder drive because it's very hard for an opposition when you never know what's happening with the budget. So after Cheers they will see the budget, there'll be in a much a better position on Thursday to frame an argument announce some
policy detail. I think that's what he'll do, And as I said before, I think Darton's position will strengthen after Thursday.
There's a couple of things inside your poll cost that I'm particularly fascinated by, And just in case there's a deal to publish the number somewhere else, I won't blow anyone's chance at that. But I remember reading in this poll a couple of poles ago that people who had a house with a mortgage were pretty positive in favor of the Liberal Party. Now a very clear majority for
the Labor Party. Now. I know, yes, there has been one reduction in interest rates, but you would think that that belt is the group of people that are the outer suburban the whole strategy, all the rest of it here. Do you have any insight as to why that number hasn't just floated a little? But there's been a very different you know, the narrative has basically flipped exactly the opposite with the people who've had to pay the most over the past three years of Albert.
Yeah, those numbers moving within that particular constituency is proof of just how volatile the situation is. So, you know, the numbers have gotten better for Labor in Western Australia, South Australia, parts of Western Sydney. But I'll go back to again, as I touched on earlier before, with Victoria. This is where I think, you know, we can do. We can publish a fifty one forty nine because news
Polls is fifty one forty nine the other way. Victoria is a real big problem for the over party because we're looking.
At the key seats track that we published through News Limited.
Has Victoria, they are recording an eight percent swing against labor.
Blimey across the board, right, So that's a significant problem.
And it.
Appears even with the numbers we've got now with the weaven detailed that in this recent publication, that is just getting worse every week. So the labor campaign's working everywhere except with Victoria's just going backwards.
Yeah, which is extraordinary because look, I mean my view is that is that Allan is circling the drain. And I don't just mean that about UNI for her own time.
It's like, look, you know that excellent report on sixty minutes where they went back, they went back on Allen and they looked right in the eye and they took the hang on, sorry, we got what you said, just to sort of get everyone off everyone's back after last time, what's happened in the six months since, let alone a whole bunch of series and stupid decisions, and even when they try to get a positive story up, as they did towards the end of last week. Oh, there's definitely
going to be a train between the airport and the city. No, there's not. There's a memory of it, of understanding to have more meetings about it. All right, thinking again, you'll.
Fall for it.
Low information to all the rest of it here. But Michael, I'm fascinated again this Victoria question. Give people an idea if it is an eight percent swing in Victoria. I don't know whether you look. I don't want to set a test for you, but I'll do it anyway. How many seats change if it's eight percent.
Well, because I've got a sheet in front of me, I continue. It's ten seats, which would beat my record of nine, which would beat my record of nine when I was president of ninety ninety. Not that it was the result was due to me, by those It was due to Andrew Peacocks.
So that means they go government here sixty eight in one style, one state alone takes well no.
No, no, two of those are teals. But it means that Dutton and Victoria alone goes from fifty seven to sixty seven.
I think it's ten in Victoria.
If it's an eight percent swing in Victoria, Peter Dutton will win an his own right. So at the minute I've got I've got Peter Dutton winning three in Victoria, which are which are aston which I think they're certain to win as one lost in the by election. Katie Allen will win Chisholm, and we'll win mcew and that's three. Bruce is on five percent, that's four, q Young's and two point two. That's five. Gold Sea's on three point three,
that's six. And then you win under eight Hawk Kerngamote, Dunkley and Holt.
So that's ten.
So if causes right nine, I elbow the best thing Labor could do. By the way, if you know, as long as people don't repeat what I've said here and I just keep this to yourselves, the best thing the Laby Patty could do in Victoria is dumped just Ciner Allen as premier agree before the federal election. So if they dumped Allen and they brought in that deputy guy Ben Carroll, who's sort of you know, a poor man's version of Chris Min's. If they brought Carolyn, who doesn't
like Andrews. Right, he didn't get on with Daniel Andrews. He doesn't like the suburban rail link this this, this train line to nowhere costing millions and millions. If he came in dumped suburban Railink, distance himself from the hard lockdowns under the Andrews government, said he's going to get that budget back outder control, then we wouldn't win ten seats or anything like that. That's the best thing Labour could do in Victoria's get rid of Allen. But I
don't think they're going to. And let's hope if she stays there, flying stays a sil election.
And just I'm not going to remember when you handed in your homework and teachers used to be old school and they used to write show working. You know, I'm not going to write that on yours. I'm going to say great working, great working. God's going to respond in a moment or two time quid break back with more here on Paul Murray Life started the Race Sunday night. I love this night, I really do. If you just join us, hey, well, where you've been right, anyway, still
appreciate it. Newsport's just dropped fifty one forty nine in favor of the Coalition, putting to bed some of the fears that everything had fallen apart in the past few weeks. However, fifty one to forty nine margin nevera It could be nine the other way for the blokes who get down into the detail and there's plenty of it to scratch around in are the blokes who know the data and know how it is shaped by the political campaigns. Because Samorus is from Redbridge, Michael Croe go well legend here
on Palmurray Live, and of course the Liberal Party in Victoria. Now, guys, I wanted to ask you this question, and it is about budgets, because there's a great myth that deliver a budget and your numbers change. Right. Certainly for this government there was no budget bounce even after the tax cut, staff and power stuff last time. Maybe a little stemming of bleeding, but bleeding came back because the fundamentals were wrong. Pretty much the same of course for the Libs during
THEIRS as well. But then there's the COVID stuff that makes things all pretty weird, and you've got to go way back into the world of Howard maybe for a different sign. So I'm not entirely sure that there is budget bouncers and all of that, and certainly not for this government potentially, as we've discussed for the opposition about
their alternative financial situation. But there is a question at the heart of this though, which is that Peter Dutton, of course is going to run with just sit at Amber, jimper Price, with Jane Hume, with Angus Taylor on they reduced the size of government agenda. Now, of course that works when you're in a federal budget deficit. However, the obvious interpretation is cut cut cut, cut, cut, cut, cut, cut, cart uga booger music and all of that that plays
the next of the while. So, because are you the type of person tell me about this this philosophical thing. Do people believe the countries peddling money up against the wall and therefore needs to pull back a beer or it's like as soon as you take a dollar away from someone, they know, are you buggers? Yeah.
Look, it's a problem for the coalition, you know, when they announced the cuts to the public service. It's a problem because when I as a campaigner look at that announcement, I go, okay, So they didn't put a ring fence around that, they didn't describe who who's going to get rich? So then okay, follows on the labor camp, I'd go, okay, let me pull out all the seats that have got a lot of public servants in the federal public service calum of public servants and run a ski campaign. And
that's exactly what I'll be doing. And so that's Chisholm right, that's that's a lot of like beat along. There's I can go through all the seats, lots of the tail seats, and so I think it was a strategic mistake to basically.
Lead with that.
I would have back ended it. You know, when they pushed me where you're going to get your savings from, I would have done a deliver with our dropped it. Yeah, we're going to cut some some of the politic service. Some of the fat cats in.
Camera said, because they're green seats, they're green and labor seats, you you're never going close. But as soon as and again they've started this up today, you know, oh Indy, I s workers and you know, so we'll see where this goes. The other one here Michael is, I want to show you a John Black, former Labor senator, really interesting analysis and I don't know where he's come from in terms of profile around this, but Jeezu's on at
this election. He's been right there on the data about how fifty to fifty and then how minority all the rest of it, right, but he's added some extra data that gives us this idea. Basically, we all know the primary vot'es low. Certainly, if it's thirty nine percent, it's very good for the Libs. But have a look at this. Blue is the number of seats that have been one on primary votes over the years, and sorry are the ones that have been one with I should say preferences.
And then the orange ones are the ones that they have won because they've got more than fifty percent of the vote. Now that has changed from in two thousand and four, eighty nine seats they want on their own at this election. Of the polling is the way it is, they'll get three. There are three joints in the country that will have a fifty to fifty split, which brings us to the conversation abound preferences. Now again we know
that basically add Labour's number with the Greens. That's where you're going to get roughly where they are before you start getting to left leaning independence. You take the coalition number, but can you fully add the one nation number?
No?
Why of course? Previously it goes fifty to fifty in twenty nineteen. I'm a broken record on this. But in two thousand and nineteen, if it goes like seventy thirty, well then guess what you can now start to add that number on top of the number. And if you're at thirty nine or forty or forty one and you've got five six seven, well then that gets you obviously
a whole lot closer to the endgame here. I think we may have mentioned it last week, and apologies if I didn't get to it, But Michael, I don't think there's enough chat about that one nation vote and about that one nation vote in and around the polls. We know that's a center right vote. We know sometimes it's sead of some old school Labour people who don't like how woke things have gone. But how important is it?
And again you've got to balance right. You want to hope Pauline in Queensland, but maybe not in Victoria, because we know how the lefties interpret that. Personally, I'd tager anywhere in the country.
But your thoughts, Yeah, well, look, I think I think in this election conservative voters on the right and that that is trumfort of Patriots, One Nation, Liberal Democrats, etc. I think my sense is their voters are going to be a lot more careful with their preferences, and the Coalition are going to win a lot more of their preferences than they have in other elections because the right coalesce behind Dutton and they low the alban easy for
a whole lot of reasons. Secondly to John Black's point, and you know, John Black is a very serious commentator, by the way, and I'll never forget a magnificent article right after the nineteen election explaining in detail how and what Scott Morrison won that election.
He was in the fin Review. But commentator and this is.
Well, no, he's he's a very good, very good writer, very good commentator. The point he is making is this, Yeah, the percentage of vote for the major parties has gone down dramatically in recent years. Contrasts that to America, by the way, mate, where in the presidential election ninety eight percent of voters voted for other Republicans of the Democrats. And there are different reasons for that, but here here
it's closing on seventy down from high eighties. As John Black points out, one of the reasons for that is and I blame the hard left for that. In Australia. The hard left denigrate Australia. They denigrate the major parties, the Greens denigrate the Labor Party, they denigrate the Liberal Party. There is a there's no sense of optimism in Australia like there is an America.
Made good point. Thank you lads to do appreciate it. I finally there was another hour. But then these books will go. Okay, enough, Paul, we're tired. Thank you lads to appreciate It'll see you again next week. We'll see you tomorrow night for more Paul Murray Life Tonner