Paul Murray Live | 23 July

No holidays, no sickness, no one anywhere else. The full slate of people here from five o'clock in the afternoon with Chris Kenny all the way through to Leader Panning before you go to bed, and Lenny to talk about between now and then, including tonight, let's start to focus back on some of the Australian stuff because the CFMEU problems, which you've been building for the past world many years, but certainly have come to the light in the past

couple of weeks. I've got some in part for you tonight about how it might actually start blowing back on specific labor MPs, more information about whether there will it won't be a rate increase from the Reserve Bank. There are hundreds of thousands of people who are just so frightened now. It is amazing that what two weeks ago is when the president to former president of the United States got shot. Oh but we've all moved on some

us to talk about really today. The Secret Service hearing, which went for four and a half hours, was the reason why I didn't get much sleep last night. What this lady said was unbelievable. I'll show you some stuff you haven't already seen about that this evening. Of course, we'll talk about Kamala, because we keep an eye on everything happening around the world with the lovely Annalyst Nielsen. But first let's start here in Australia and with the

beautiful state of Queensland. We all know that Stephen Miles is desperate. He's a man who knows that his government is headed towards a brick wall at the election in October. But they are literally spending billions of dollars to try to buy their way out of this inevitable fate. Now, of course he didn't lie when being asked a question about youth crime. Just bite the fact that he lied.

He's got a special connection with the people of Queen's and despite the fact that when he goes to hand them how to vote cards, they go no thanks, but I'm wearing a baron's jersey. I've got the special hat on. Please pay attention to me, and we also know that the latest polls show that again he's going to lose this election. He's part of what Channel nine had to report a couple of days ago. Today's you gov numbers have the LNP ahead fifty seven percent to forty three

on a two party preferred basis. So because he's headed and circling the drain right now, the Miles government can't really rely upon all of their mates in the normal media because they can now see which way these things are working. So what he's doing is him and all of his spin doctors, and you know how the many of them are and taxpayer funded spin doctors. Well they're trying to sort of go around the media. This is sort of the full Daniel Andrews play, which is to

go all in on social media. Now, I've got to say, whatever charm other leaders have had on social media, Steven Miles doesn't have it now. He's shameless and he's trying a million times over and over, and he somehow thinks that he'll be able to present himself as a new broom for Queensland. But have a look at how cringey some of this stuff.

In fact, according to a new national report which came in the past couple of days, it showed that national rent's gone up by nine percent in twelve months and in places like Queensland that means sixty bucks a week that it has gone up by Now, the Liberal Party decided to have a little joke back at the way that Stephen Miles tries to go around the news to invent his own picture of how healthy the government is

and how they're not trying to buy your vote. They're just doing all of these amazing things that just so happened to start in August and finish in December. No promise of permanent changes. But they've already tried to buy off voters with their power bill stuff, and they're trying

to distract voters with their public transport stuff. But the Liberal Party decided, okay, we're going to kind of play this silly game, and they decided to use one of the many filters that are on TikTok, Snapchat, Instagram, all of those which can make it look like somebody is doing something that clearly they're not doing. In this case, Stephen Miles dancing. Now that wasn't Stephen Miles, was it? In fact, this was Stephen Miles dancing if we can

guys now clearly that's not Stephen Miles. And the Commodore sixty four is not working well for us tonight. But still these filters, which are clearly not true, have been used on all sorts of people, including this is a photo that people were posting all over on TikTok on the night of the last federal election. And this went quite a way around and apparently Paul Murray was crying on Sky News, you know, because he was close to Scott Morrison and he hated the idea. But of course

I wasn't. It just was the ability to digitally mean pipulate someone's face to make it seem like, oh, this is the proof of what they're really doing, when the truth is that that isn't what was happening. So the Liberal Party decided to put out a video today, and that Liberal Party video was of Stephen Miles dancing. Stephen Miles then decided to complain that all of this was a massive problem because it was a threat to democracy.

Now he of course, was trying to change the subject from his own government's poor performance.

Now again, let's talk about housing and the politics of housing, because again in my time where I was away, you're talking to a whole bunch of people about their lives, and people are very nervous about their kids being able to buy something. They're very nervous about people being able to find a rental property. And again that survey that came out and told us that there has been a nine percent increase in the amount of red that people

are paying. And this now seems that according to prop Track, it reveals that the median income has increased from five hundred and fifty to six hundred dollars in the past twelve months. Now, again we keep being told that, you know, cost of living carts stage three, all of that, it will help, But if you're somebody who's renting, all of that's burnt already by the increase in your rental areas. It's also important to notice too that there's bugger all

places available. Just one point four percent of all of the housing, including units, villas, everything is actually available for rent at any one time. That is such a small part of the market, and we know that they are accues up and around the door, be it the suburbs of Brucebane or of course Sydney or Melbourne, which brings us to again the politics of housing. I think this is one of those issues that is really important for whoever seeks to move the ball forward for their political

party at the next election. You have a scenario where the Liberal Party has of course got its policies when it comes to first homeowners. The Labor Party will claim that it does too, and then of course you have the Mad Greens, and I'll get to them in a second. But of course this politics works in three different ways, because of course there are people who own their own home, there are peace people who are paying off their own home, or there are people who are renting their own home.

And according to the Bureau of Statistics, this graph which will clearly show you that thirty one percent of people are owned their home outright, thirty five percent own it with a mortgage, or thirty percent rent means that you're in a scenario where thirty percent of the country is desperate to get a solution to buying a house something like what sixty six percent will already own their own

home or trying to pay their own home off. So the value of an existing property, they want two thirds it to go up, but one third who want to get in of course, want it to continue to go down, which is where the Greens come in. Now, the Greens had a pretty good election in twenty twenty two. They were able to have a particularly good election by getting

people elected to the lower House in Queensland. It is incredible how many people support the Greens, or at least enough of them support the Greens to beat the Labor Party in seats, and once you put the preferences together, it's the Greens that end up coming out on top. And they think this issue delivers them more seats. Why because nationally they poll anywhere between ten and fifteen percent of the vote. But as I just showed you, thirty percent of the country rents. So the more rent is,

the more potential Greens voters. That's why their entire housing plan is focused on those who rent. Because if they can even lift by five percent the amount of people who would vote for them who are renting will then they're a chance of being able to leap frog Labor and end up winning seats. This is why the Liberal Party, in my view, should have a system where they don't

preference the Greens over Labor. Instead they preference Labor over the Greens, as it should be that the Labor Party does the same when it comes to the Liberal Party and the Teals. But maybe I'm living in fantasy land, but still the target. The next couple of targets for the Queensland based MPs that are the Greens are these two seats. These are seats that they believe are vulnerable because of the number of people who are renting them,

the Seat of Lily and the Seat of Morton. Now remember the national average is about thirty percent of people who are renting, but it's thirty five percent in the seat of Morton, it's thirty seven percent in the Seat

of Lily. Therefore, they believe that they are able to win those seats by targeting the renters who will lift their vote get them above the Labor Party and the preferences all work their way, but Again, what's interesting about this politics is that while it works for a third of the electorate, it doesn't work for the other two thirds of the electorate. This is why your preferences matter.

And openly saying that the Green's policy is that the value of your home that you own, the value of your home that you are paying off, should remain exactly what it is today or over time start to go down, should be something everyone is paying attention to. But because it takes a couple of minutes to explain, people kind

of roll over. If you preference the Greens, then very clearly you are going to end up in a scenario where you are backing in a party that wants the house you are paying off or the house you have paid off to be worth less over time. Now that's good for people who would like somebody to be able to buy a home, but if you're planning to sell your home at some point in your life because of retirement, downsizing, or anything else, the amount of money that you will

have for your retirement will go down with it. In fact, the bloke who is all about housing, the one who is constantly talks about everyone else in the Federal Parliament who is an evil landlord, of course, not mentioning the own members of his own party who are in that

particular situation. Is this bloke and Max Chandler. Mayther gave an interview to The Australian newspaper and he says that he's made it clear that the minor party's policies are aimed at achieving a real decline in housing values over time to ensure the next generation have a better chance of buying a home. And an interview with The Australian as part of a series exploring the Greens policy platform, this bloke says the party's key objective was to halt

housing growth. I think our goal, our stated goal is to stop house price growth, so zero percent growth, to get wages of a chance to catch up. He says he thinks that the net effect will be a stabilization of house prices, but the reality is that the Greens want the value of the house you have already paid off or the one you are paying off, to go down.

That's two thirds of Australians. But because there are certain seats where there are more people that are in that third of renters, they of course have totally focused on that area. This also matters because, as we know, the latest poles have told us that the Labor government is

headed towards a minority government status. According to the fresh Water Pole, they could lose seven eight seats and if that's the case, then they absolutely will need the Greens to be able to form supply and confidence in the Parliament.

It will mean that without the Greens vote in the House or the Senate, nothing will get done, nothing will get past, which means Labor has to own their policy too, which is why the Labour Party in the Liberal Party should be doing the best they possibly can to preference to get rid of the people who would end up making the decisions in that minority parliament, be at the Teals for the Libs or be at the Greens for Labor. But of course they won't because as long as the

other guy suffers, who cares? Right now, again, I said a couple of weeks, it's not even a couple of weeks since the shooting of Donald Trump, the attended assassination. And like everyone and remember we came back into a special show on that night. It was so close, like it's like millimeters the difference between life and death. And while we live at a very sort of pacy time where we change the subject all the time and something is a bigger and better news story. This is worth

keeping our eye on for obvious reasons. It doesn't matter whether you're pro Trump or not. Needing know one pro Trump. Well, today we've got another example about a lack of accountability that exists in the modern world, the lack of accountability that I've shown you multiple times in multiple ways. Be it about the COVID situation where people died alone in this country. I know you can't have a royal commission.

Be it people like Daniel Andrews, who of course get the Gold Medal for public health despite the fact that of course there was the longest lockdown of all time, and many other examples, And I've spoken to you about this many times before, that people just don't get the sack when they do the wrong job. Instead, you just find a way to keep the job, and then eventually all of the people who will keep you in the job then give you awards for the job that you did.

And the public well, computer says no. Well, the boss of the Secret Service gave evidence today to a collection of politicians in Washington. Now this was a four and a half hour hearing. Each politician had about five minutes to ask questions, and a lot of them wanted to ask questions. And apparently the boss of the Secret Service, who of course is in charge of the organization that

failed because the shooter was so close. The shooter had been seen for a couple of minutes before the shooter, who should have been taken out, way before Donald Trump even got on the stage. Well, this is how she started her day.

was in charge of the Secret Service resigned. Because it's binary, you protect them or you file. She filed. She should go. But this is how ridiculous it got today.

Remember when thirteen American service people died when the Americans were leaving Afghanistan, leaving billions of stuff behind, and literally the world saw the images of people desperate to escape a place that Taliban was about to take over again, holding onto the bottom of planes and then falling from the sky. Not one person lost their job for that. Now we see this increasingly in the way that modern

government works. Modern government more powerful than ever before, more of them than ever before, more rules than ever before, more ways to punish you if you do the wrong thing, But when they do the wrong thing, nothing happens. People are frustrated in general with a lot of things right now from the media, who, as we know, have covered up the truth of what's been happening in America for

the past three and a half years. They're frustrated with government itself that again just finds new ways to make your life harder. But they are ultimately frustrated that the system is so slanted that it'll come down on you like a ton of bricks. But when it comes to them, somehow magically, they always avoid consequences. Think about it. From your local council to state government, federal government, and governments overseas.

We've had enough. But sadly they they don't care, which is why when it's your turn to vote, you need to seriously think about voting for people who do care and who are going to legitimately challenge the system. You may feel lonely at a dinner party or a barbecue, but I promise you the people who see the system for what it is are the people who will fix it.

The people who do not are the ones who are just going along for the ride, and they may end up being more powerful and more well known in the history books than you or I and most people put together. But their lack of basic decency and accountability is something that is just unforgivable. It truly is. Now quickly on

the Kamala Harris stuff. Now, let me explain how my plan is or what my plan is to cover this for the next couple of nights, and then obviously it'll change where it'll come down for a little while, it'll get up and down as we go towards November, which is I am going to talk about it, sometimes the very start of the show, sometimes at the very end

of the editorial, sometimes only with the panel. Sometimes we'll have special guests from America, and you know, we've got incredible people like analysts that will be on later tonight. And I know there's lots of people they send me emails going, geez, what are you was talking about American politics because, for obvious reasons, the consequences of who is the leader of the free world will it has all

sorts of consequences. If you're somebody who's particularly focused on things like the economy, well, what happens in America does affect a lot of the rest of the world. If you're somebody who cares about what's happening when it comes to defense, what happens with America affects a lot of the world. If you're somebody who believes that the Paris Agreement is where we should be going and we in fact we should be doubling down versus it's too restrictive.

It lets China off the hook, and China should be pulled into line before the rest of the world's pulled into line. Well, then guess what what happens in America matters, which is why I talk about it as frequently as we do now. I of course, I'm completely aware that there's a show before me, there's a show after me, there's a couple of shows before me, a couple of shows up to me, and yes they may talk about

it too. But all I ever control, and have ever controlled in all the time I've ever been here, is this real estate. This real estate. And I will choose to sometimes lead with something that you might have heard somebody else, but I can always promise you this. I'll always try to find the fact or the detail that moves the ball forward and gives you a greater understanding of what's going on, rather than just ye boo, which is not a comment on any of my colleagues, but

it's just some of the coverage. Generally, you can get really granular with this stuff. Sometimes I make get a bit like that. If I ever get too boring about that, I apologize, send me emails. But I want to make sure that you are the smartest person in the room understanding what is happening in the race, not just cheering for one side of the race. So let's get to what happened today. It's all a stitch up because Kamala

Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. She ended up getting into a place where she has all of the delegates, all of the money, no one is going to challenge her. So all this garbage odds a process and open process. We didn't rig it from behind closed doors, a utter rubbish. So now let's just start getting to the reality. It is Trump versus Harris. It is Harris

versus Trump. Kamala Harris spoke today at her campaign headquarters where she believes that everyone hates Trump and that's why you should vote for her.

few people, have too much money. Sure, and anyone who's been there can see the poverty. But if you're trying to say don't vote for Donald Trump because we're going to go back to the economy that he was running, I can show you this many poles that will tell you people preferred that economy to the one that she and Joe Biden have been looking over. For their part, Donald Trump and JD. Vance gave a series of interviews. Jdvans did his first rally today and he also did an interview on Fox News.

run for president, how can he be the president. But right now there's a lot of people who are feeling that there's a new broom that's on its way, despite the fact that those of us who watched it and paid attention to it for a long time know that it's the old room, the old room that's been rejected many times before, the proverbial lipstick on the pig that was losing the election when it was Biden. But now it's apparently going to be all Harris's way, because you know,

the future is female. She's been in the room for every bad decision. She's been in the room when it comes to the border, the economy, national security, and all of the other reasons why the American people were ready to make a change. It is up to the Trump and Man's campaign to not keep going after Biden, but to understand that Harris and Biden won and the same. But more importantly, what Harris represented, What people will she have around her, What are her promises? What is her

policy platform? Because if her policy platform means let's just keep doing what Joe was doing, then they can win. If her policy platform means i'll tell you later, well, then she shouldn't win. Ron de Santis one of the many Republicans coming out and starting to say too, don't forget despite the makeover, she is not a great politician.

here too. Yes, it's only been literally a day, but we have some data, and you know, this show is all about the data, and we add the opinion on top of that, but still the data is worth noting here. In a two way race, there are two poles which have come out since Harris became the Democratic choice. She's losing substantially in the Forbes pole, just in the Quinnipiac Pole. But remember it's not just two people that are in

the national race. There are five significant people who are running for president, including Robert F. Kennedy and a whole bunch of others. Well, even in that, guess what happens. Trump is still winning in the state of Georgia, which is one of the states that the Democrats have to win to be able to push back on Donald Trump. Guess what poll from the Atlanta Journal Constitutional So coming from the city of Atlanta, in the state of Georgia, you can see Trump is leading, and he ain't leading

just it's fifty one forty six. So I get it. There's a new girl in town. And of course, before you complain about you understand the metaphor of which I am talking about. Send your complaints to the ghost. I'm sure he'll fold them on to Kevin. There is a new broom who is seeking to redefine herself. If the Republicans can define her first, while she's locking in the nomination,

they will be a significant chance of beating her. If they set back and let the media mold the image, well then this fight is going to be very tight. But as I showed you before, do you want an administration in the United States that has accountability that, for example, would sack the head of the Secret Service if the pres got shot at Because the current administration that is not just Joe Biden, but is Kamala Harris. They haven't sacked her yet, and they still haven't sacked anyone from

the debarcle of Afghanistan. Big debate head tonight, and at least Nielsen will join us from the United States, as wilbable to go to a quick break now and then back with Senators of wonderful renowned, our dear friend Holly Hughes and our lovely mate as well as Stephen Conroy. I think they may have something to say. We'll try to keep the American stuff to a minimum for a little while, then back to it towards the end of the show, send me an email. I'm always receptive to

what you think of the show. Pault's goodnews dot com dot All. Right, now, on Sunday night, we are going to be doing another Ourtown. This is one is going to be in Newcastle, north of Sydney, and I cannot wait to be there. But we have just four days to fill the room. Four days to fill the room. So if you're watching us in Newcastle or can get to Newcastle or this Sunday night, I need an email ourtown. It's sky news dot com dot are you outown at skye News dot com dot are you be there Sunday night?

Let's try and fill the room tonight, so don't knuck around. If you know people who love the show in the area, send the email tonight outtown. It's gone news dot com dot AU. Holly Hughes is here. Of course. The sender from new said, well, she knows Newcastle oh so beautifully,

oh so well. Stephen Conroy as a labor man knows that there's a union here and a number over there, and if you talk to that bloke and this other thing, and you won't have to pay for your parking, all right, love you to see you both love to see you.

After the past couple of weeks. Let's talk here about what I do consider to be the number one concern in the country right now is two thirds of the wall, two thirds of the country frightened about an interest rate rise like legit frightened now now, Steven, we've talked before about whether the Reserve Bank should or shouldn't, or should or shouldn't have in the past, but let's talk about where we go from here, about the types of information

the Reserve Bank will be looking at right now. We know Holly that when they had their last meeting of the three options stay up or down, they did not touch down and they needed to basically convince themselves not to go up. We've got a lot of data since that would suggest we are going to head in an up direction. And as I told you last night, it's one hundred and fifty thousand people that may have to

sell the house virtually straight away. Another eight hundred thousand people who go on top of the minions more who are into mortgage stress. This is the issue in Australia.

they're having to make and this is after tax. They didn't get a thirty five thousand dollars Stage three tax cut. I have to find that money. That's not the kind of coins you find down the back of the couch. So adding to that, when everything else has gone up over nine percent again since this government's come to power, plus we have had five quarters of negative per capita growth five so per capita growth. We are in a recession and have been for a while.

we are. Okay, Now, Holly, let's talk about not just political responsibility with your passion in and around the ndis again a whole bunch of hearings that are taking place right now. It's the latest on trying to learn more about how to fix this.

that they will provide these foundational supports. There's a sixty billion dollar black hole in the NDS without these foundational supports. So we have hearings over the next two days that were deliberately put together to get the states and the territories to come and talk to the committee that's overlooking this legislation to say what are they, what do you understand they are, what do they get to cost? What are you prepared to pay? What can you stand up?

So we're talking about community health, speech therapy, and OTS and access. So there are too many people in the NDS. There's too many kids on the NDIS. The kids with permanent lifelong disabilities need to be there. The kids with global developmental delays don't, but they do need something, and that's where the states are supposed to be responsible, and the states are now hiding. Now we want to know

why they're hiding. Is there something that's being held over them by the federal government to not come and speak to this committee about what these foundational support looks like. Where is this sixty billion dollars going to come from? How is this going to work?

So we could talk for hours about the past couple of weeks, but let's talk about where to from here. It will be Harris, it will be Harris versus Trump. There is a resetting in the race. She starts from behind, She's had a massive surge of money, and the media will now try to turn her into an Obama like historic figure. That said, do you think that the issues that still have been fundamental to where the Democrats were

that they needed to get rid of Joe Biden. And I'm talking about immigration, cost of living, you name it, that any of those substantially change or is the whole point of the Harris candidacy to change the subject to the ones that are more popular for the Democrats.

wanted to say. So the the Obama's and the Clintons and all the serious leadership in the Democrats all formed the view that following the disastrous demonstration at the at the debate, that he needed to pull up stumps, so they were ramping up the pressure the issues around, for instance immigration. Now I'm going to be cruel to one of your you're the fanboy for Trump. But Trump personally intervened in a deal that had been put together by

the Republicans to deal with the border crisis. And it was agreed and it was a rough and tough package. Many Democrats hated it, but Biden was pushing it through when he was endorsing it, and Trump picks up the phone says, don't you dare agree to this because it looked like a win for Biden on the borders. So Kamala would have actually had a win, but Trump made sure Republicans didn't vote for it. Now that is the

height of cynicism. He wanted the political crisis on the border to keep going for his own.

But they also make the point that Harris has got to be laser focused on Middle America issues, and more importantly, she's got to keep the campaign focused on Trump now that Biden's out of the way. Her job is to remind Americans about, let's just be polite the flaws of Donald Trump. Sure, so Trump needs to be the main It needs to be a referendum on Trump. It was going to be a refrimendum on Biden and his age. Kamala Harris has got to make it a debate and a referendum on Trump.

those things, she's in trouble. I like the way Andrew Bolt earlier tonight described it, Paul, He called her a chameleon and warn the Republicans do not underestimate it.

she gets the best of people around her. We know that, you know there are the issues, but I'll just ask you this quickly, quickly, because I've got thirty seconds. Right, do you want to hear about the gender angle of this the whole way through that basically women unite against Orange man bad.

One in a sect. Oh, I love Analyse Nielsen. She's fantastic and she does a great job for us in Washington. She joins us right now from that beautiful part of the world. How are your rockstar.

And you've got people criticizing these agents who throw themselves in the path of a bullet.

a different option. We we kept being told seventy percent of people in a different option. There's now finally a different option. I think it's a deeply imperfect one. But as somebody who knows how the debate works, right, do you think that we have had this thing where basically the best of Hillary and the best of Obama have been put together in this one person, And don't you dare stand in the way of history. Or she's the woman who can't hold on to much staff and doesn't seem to

do an amazing job. What's your sense of where we're headed?

But the one thing we need to look at here is when you look at all these polls, and I know people tell me, oh, I don't believe Poles anymore.

have a cameraman. It's just there is something else going on that they're not telling us, And all we know is that they've lied to us up until this point. They kept telling us he was great. They kept telling us cheap fakes, and that was clearly just not.

and November. The Late Debate is next. Tada