From the Skying New Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thank you, Sherry Gooday, Good evening. You will find out in the next couple of minutes who the one hundred undecided voters in the Sky News People's Forum in Queensland thought and who they are going to vote for going into the election, which, of course voting is on now more than about half of the state. We believe we'll end up voting early before the election. It all happens
on Saturday now. Tomorrow night, we're going to be in Brucebane for a special pub test featuring Peter Dutton, where people will be able to ask whatever questions they want. It'll be viewers of this program, but we'll also obviously talk in great detail about what is about to happen in and around this Queensland election tonight on the show. No Sooks, no Lefties, and we'll also get to the wonderful Meghan Kelly in a moment or two time. But first let's look back on that People's Forum, because I
think there's nothing like it in Australian politics. We've been doing these things here at Sky Newstance. I think it was what way back in the you know, the two thousand and seven election, certainly the twenty ten and every state election since. And I want to congratulate all of the people who put this together because we do it for the Northern Territory election, the Tazi election, we do it everywhere. Right. We are a truly national station, which
is why we are focused on this state election. And you know how focused I am on what is about to happen in Queensland fingers crossed a change of government. Here were some of the questions. If you happen to miss it, what.
Do you both plan to do to tackle the rising antisemitism and hate? Please tell them when I get a play of the Olympics.
And where are we at with all the infrastructure?
What's your plans to make more affordable childcare?
Just tell me we're not going to run out of money, because you'd tell us everything.
They want to be Now, I thought all of the questions everything hit the usuals. But there was one question in particular which wasn't just a question, but I thought it was a really good idea and it was in relation to domestic violence. Now, obviously there is a situation where women end up leaving the home because they want to get away from what potentially in the three is. Yes, men who are involved in the same scenarios, well, if
the aggressor is female. But the question from this lady I thought was interesting because you've got to see the two leaders respond in real time to an idea that has not been front and center in the Queensland election. But once you hear it kind of makes sense, at least to me.
I'd like to ask you about this evening is if either of you have got any plans to change the DV laws about women having to leave their homes when there's a situation. I think men need to have more accountability and they need to be removed from the home instead of the woman going into crisis accommodation with small children.
Great, great question. Now, of course both of them logs important and you will see what happens. But it seems to make sense, right Why not create a scenario where the person who is accused of committing the offense is the one who has to go and find emergency accommodation as opposed to the person who is the apparent victim.
I like that particular moment. Now we've got to deal with the giant's scare of this election and at times a distraction that much of the left wing meeting has been obsessed with talking about, because as I have told you for as long as I've been watching Queensland politics, and you know how much I love Queensland, Labor is very good at elections. Now they don't have a record to run on, so much so that Anastatia Palachet was
pushed out the door for Stephen Miles. The Labor Party has been in an election losing position for a couple of years now because life under a Labor government well,
Queenslanders have run out of patience for it. So their scare is to pretend that because yes, there are a couple of Conservative MPs that may well get elected as part of a new government, and the Catter Australia Party who is promising to bring a vote towards Parliament, towards a parliament in and around the decriminalization of late term abortions, the abortion issue has been one that has been wearing
its ugly head. I say ugly head because it's not something that normally we would expect at a state election. David Cristo Full has been very clear from day one that there will be no change. The majority of the Parliament whenever it votes, if ever it votes, well clearly
will affirm the previous decisions. But that doesn't mean Stephen Miles isn't using everything you can to try to push this distraction, a distraction which is the lead story in left we news sites as they try to make it about this issue, not the failures on hospitals, on youth crime, education and everything else of the past four years.
There will be no changes to abortion law and I want Queenslanders to hear that directly from me.
Can anyone tell from David's answer just then what he thinks about this issue? I mean this is this is a really important issue.
I think it shouldn't change.
Everyone knows I think it shouldn't change.
The laws will remain the same. Where you have a conscience spoke, the laws will remain the view. There will be no change.
So the scare campaign will continue, but you need to.
Help direct a well, let me answer the question.
The scare campaign will continue, but it's not happening. Give a straight answer. Okay, there will be no change, none at all.
Are your protests or not?
There will be no change. The legislation is there and women will have access to that legislation that gives women the right to choose.
And just in case if it needs to be made any clearer, here is the yes no answer to the yes no question.
So if there was a conscience vote, you'd vote against it.
Karen, there will be no change, and my team has svo for it or against.
Well, let me let me answer that.
So the premier is talking about the vehicle to get there, I'm telling.
You the result.
There will be no change to those laws, and that's what people need to know.
There will be no change.
And my see, my team has backed that in all right.
So it's clear, yes, that there will be a back when backing when it comes to a woman's right to choose. Obviously, Labor will keep pushing regardless of what the facts are, for the next few days because it's the only issue that you're going to get wide and media support on. So one hundred undecided voters, they had an opportunity to well decide if they have decided and whom they will be voting for on Saturday, the Great Care in Gilbert.
You can give them a million different titles. Let's just say KG it joins us now, sun Corpse stadium where his dream would be to one day get on a jersey in a pair of shorts and run out onto that field. But till then he will toil behind the cameras here at Sky News. Great man, do we have a result?
We do. No danker rub needed today, though for this performance it was it close one. Paul. I've got to tell you, I think Christop fully will be pleased with these numbers. So even though Miles has won thirty nine percent of the room, Christoph Fooley thirty five percent, thirty nine to thirty five, twenty six percent undecided. Still after this hour, they're going to have to still think about their vote over the next few days. But given Labor,
this is a stronghold for labor, Paul, Brisbane. We are at sun Corpus. You said thirty three of the forty two seats in Brisbane are held by labor. So the fact that christp Fooley gets thirty five percent of support here, I think you'd see that in itself as a victory tonight, Paul, so a close one on paper, Miles wins, but you'd say there's a lot of positivity to take out for the lamp leader.
Yeah, I mean You've hosted these things in every state, the territories, and at the federal level. When you see a quarter of the room still undecided yet again, or a whole bunch of opinion polls have told us that it's all hitting in one way. I'm going to get into some details a little bit later that we all know where I want it to go. But I think this thing is actually going to be closer than some people think. How regular is it that a quarter of the room walks out undecided? Well, you know you.
Talk about this as well, that third party element, the independence and the minor parties, that is a big part of our political equation now. And I know what you regularly, as I enjoy doing it, you do talk about it a lot with One Nation or whatever it else. So I think that might be a component of what we're
seeing tonight, Paul, with that twenty six percent. But I've got I personally think you know the other thing is when you see them and you know this, having spoken to the leaders over the months and years, you know who's feeling good heading into Saturday and tonight, Miles, you know he's having a crack. But I've got to say the sense I got was that Christoph Foley is feeling like the you know for one of a better phrase, that the wind is in his sale heading into Saturday.
I think he's going to get there. You're right, things are tightening a bit, but Christopher Fooley will be the premiere come Sunday.
Well, funny again the relationship between the overall somebody other than the major parties. Have a look at this today. The Resolve poll came out via the Brisbane Times website. Once you put the Greens at eleven, one Nation at nine and the collection of others, guess what twenty seven percent? Twenty seven percent is the not label or liberal vote
in this room again about the same number. So again, people who might be going in undecided, you know, maybe they don't want brand red, brand blue, so they're going to try to find somewhere else and a really important issue, right, and this is this is why third party is an issue. Is one I'm so obsed. Right, it's all well and good for a quarter of people to vote something other than the two major parties, right, it's what they do
with their preferences. Now, if people follow how to vote cards, we know that when the conservative parties basically anti the city government. It's going to help the LNP to help change the government. The Greens are going to not play well in the bush, but they're going to play pretty well in the southeast. And as we've noticed about Queensland, bloody big place, but an awful lot of seats in
that southeast. So that's really fascinating to me that basically, you know, one organization using it started to go one way. Our room, we've come to the same conclusion. And if you've got a quarter of the vote, who they put second? Because the Labour Party under Palachet made this a compulsory, compulsory preferences election, that's going to really open the door
where I think LNP in some seats. In fact, I'll get into the detail in a second, they will be praying for the preferences of the Conservatives and the showing of the Greens. That's what Labour ne needs to have a hope of minority.
Yeah, indeed, And the other one of those things that jumped out of me tonight wonderful questions, I thought, Paul from the audience, but the one from the young Jewish woman who said, what will you do to combat NDI Semitism? And this is an issue I think which is relevant to what you're talking about when it comes to the Greens.
I just wonder how some of those leafy suburbs, say smaller Liberals would be feeling about some of the behavior coming out of that particular minor party in recent months. We'll see on Saturday how it transpires, whether they do get the number of seats that they're talking about, but some of the language, some of the message from Green's elements, whether it be particularly in New South Wales, we know
of a few in the Federal Parliament as well. There's been elements of Eddie Semitism, and I just wonder how people in the leafy suburbs of Brisbane react to that when otherwise they might be leaning towards a vote for the minor party.
My oath congrats on tonight. We look forward to seeing on Saturday five pm, because I remember the time zones are all different. Five pm is when you can see things in the East as they start to roll out in Queensland. Keep the earpcing because I've got a little bit of data for you that I think might turn up in the coverage. I look forward to being a part of it. On Saturday night, mate, I'll be wearing shorts business up top, shorts down the bottom, I guarantee.
Thank you KG. That's by the way most of the shows. Thank you mate, Thank you KG. We love that man. Now I want to start to talk about something here because again my belief need to change the government. Right. My belief was that four years ago. Of course COVID ended up meaning that the Labor Party held on to a majority. No, I a massive one, but they ended up with a majority. Now, Queensland as a political map is three different places. The southeast where there's an awful
lot of seats. Why because that's where the population is. Okay, if your definition is the Sunshine Coast down to Cool and Gatter, that's pretty much like three quarters of the seats in Queensland. If you just want to talk about Brucebe and split out the Sunny Coast and the Gold Coast, both of those can be a little bit more conservative traditionally ending up going blue. And then of course there's
the regional parts where population centers. The two biggest would be Cans that's got a couple of MPs, but Townsville has got a couple of seats in and around that zone, throwing places like Keppel. There's many elections within an election, which means I want to show you the preferred premier number that has come out of the Resolve poll today.
Now it shows that the preserve that the preferred premier according to the polls during the election campaign has gone from a wide margin against Miles to now it being kinder or very close to fifty to fifty. Why is that happening? Because study this graphic seven Miles as preferred premier.
His strength comes from metropolitan areas. Now metropolitan areas, I don't know the exact definition here, whether we're just talking about Brisbane or whether we're talking about Risbane, Gold Coast, Townsville, cans Okay. I sort of built up the built up bits of Queensland, but you can see the second you get into regional areas, huge drop off. What the best part of ten points and a three point rise in
the number for David Crucifuley. But again interesting to look here a week to go, twenty one percent of people in metropolitan Queensland won't say which way who the preferred premier is. Now again this poll shows twenty seven percent of the primary vote sits somewhere other than the LNP or the Labor Party. When it comes to again those regional areas, that numbers even higher at twenty eight percent.
That's because catter Australia and one Nation do better in regional areas, which is why the overall picture of the state is crucifully thirty nine miles thirty seven to twenty five still to decide. Which brings me to this and I do not want to say this because you know what result I want. I think this thing is going to be closer than people think because the task for the LMP is they have to win twelve seats to
win a majority government. Now, let's show you where those twelve seats are, because the closer they are to Brisbane, they are harder for the LNP to win. Now, according to this the Labor Party has nine seats across the state that are under a margin of five percent. Keep that up because I'll basically talk around those numbers as well. Labour has four seats between five and six percent, six seats between six and eight percent. Where are those seats, Well,
ten of them are in regional Queensland. They need twelve to become the government Okay, let's imagine they win them all, they're still too short of a majority government. Two are on the Sunshine Coast. Now the Sunshine Coast flipped in part because of COVID. The assumption is that those would go back to the LNP. But a Teal mayor was elected on the Sunshine Coast, will they get the two
from there? Okay, very close to sorry, the southeast generally, where again we're going to take everything from a little further down from the Sunshine Coast, a little further out from Brisbane, and a little further under towards the Gold Coast. That's four seats. Again, if they win one on the Sunshine Coast, one on the Southeast, then they're going to get the twelve. Right, they're going to get a majority government.
But to go beyond the majority number, if three are still in Brisbane, four are in the Southeast, and according to this pole, the preferred premiere in those areas is miles, then maybe the best they can hope for is twelve, thirteen, fifteen seats as opposed to a giant change, because there's so many that they have to win frankly between now and then, so I don't want to panic anyone, But I also don't want to play fool's goal. Should there be a change of government, Yes, is Stephen Miles the
bloke who should be the remaining Premier of Queensland. No, should Shannon Fentaman continue to look over a health system that is the shambles that it is the first question in the People's Forum tonight was about a woman who had family members that were being misdiagnosed or being told that I look, you've just got an in large bladder because you're old. Reality, it was cancer in regional areas.
As I've told you before, there are rolled gold examples of people in Queensland who when you call an ambulance in regional Queensland, one paramedic who's driving the ambulance turns up And if you want the ambulance to be able to go to the hospital, they need a member of the public to be able to drive that ambulance. When it comes to the overall health system in and around Ramping, it has got worse, not better. In fact, right now the worst numbers Queensland has ever had youth crime. That
question should answer itself. But again that youth crime issue is particularly strong in regional areas, and yes, there are enough seats to slowly but surely get them to wards majority. I want to start to set some expectations. Winning twelve seats is a hercule an effort because there are so many bands of the percentages that you need. You can get ten of them in the areas where the LNP is polling very well, but you also need the preferences the number two for the Catter Australia voters or the
number two from the One Nation people. We'll talk to James Ashby about that. Of course, he's a candidate in the seat of Keppel, so watch this space. While it has been a dishonest campaign full of lies, the closer you get to Brisbane, the harder it is for the LMP to start flipping seats. Thankfully there are enough outside of Brisbane. But the reason it may not be over as soon as the polls are closed is because of the three different Queenslands that will be voting on Saturday night.
You'll see the coverage here on Sky News. Anasaja Palachet, who I Know you love, and Campbell Newman, who I Know you really love, will be here on Saturday night. You'll see it all starting at five o'clock Eastern, given them time differences and all the rest of it, you will start to see the results coming through and I look forward to being part of the coverage. Laura Jayson. I will be there side by side as always, trying to add to the coverage that of course includes the
wonderful Peter Kredlin. So big night ahead on Saturday Night, Queensland. You know how much I love you and I look forward to being there for the next few days. Now tomorrow night as well. Don't forget that pub test, Peter Dutton joining us as the alternative Prime Minister to take questions from the public. If you've got some questions, you can send them. You might not get to ask them yourself, but we might ask them on your behalf pub test.
It's gonews dot com dot au. So I'm not going to spend too much time on Lydia Thorpe because we did the right thing last night and talk about that as the embarrassment that it was. But I do want to mention two things you saw today two indigenous leaders. You saw Lydia Thorpe taking a victory lab for the way that she behaved in Canberra yesterday. A behavior that has been admonished by indigenous leaders, including indigenous leaders of
the left today who were very much pro voice. So we know where Lydia Thorpe is and it's right out on the edges. Lydia Thorpe of course has said that she's not planning to be re elected, so she's just there to be a protest for the next four years.
But how did Australia actually respond Because my central frustration with what she did yesterday was that this made massive international news and I don't want people in the UK to think that she represents anyone but herself largely and a very small number of people who want an antagonistic relationship when it comes to these issues. So guess what thousands of people decided to turn up today for their royal highnesses when they were in and around Sydney Harbor.
Was it four hundred thousand people know, but it was a significant number of people and way more than Lydia Thorpe had support in that room. Remember the silence after she carried on the way she carried on. Here's some of the people who turned up in the sunshine to day. Well done Sydney for turning on the weather about time of got Boody warmed too.
I would say welcome to Australia and that I come from Cornwall and I know nan Sladen as a township which he was the architect for.
Oh fantastic. I can't wait to see them, can't. I just here to support want to be here.
I'm so excited.
Just keep going, you love for I love it. Happy people, sunshine. Why not have a little bit of the good news story as opposed to the nonsense. But then, of course you have another example of indigenous leadership, and it is one that is absolutely about walking arm in arm with people, regardless of what their family's histories are, towards a bright and clear future. And that's of course to Enter Price. As she was at the ARC conference that was taking
place in Sydney today. This is the meeting of smart conservatives like herself that took place in the UK last year, it's happening in Sydney as we speak. And this is what she had to say today. And I'll tell you what I get in behind her worldview. And I think the extreme majority of Australians do as opposed to Lydia Thorpe, who was the one making headlines.
It's important to understand about who we are as a country from our history, and not for the purpose of weaponizing that history against anybody, but just to have a better understand of who we are.
So a quick little message to all of those royal reporters who know doubt I'll be watching us in the hotel rooms getting ready for another day. Make sure that when you talk about this issue in this week, you find time to play grabs a disenterprice Centerprice is where sixty percent of Australians were when it came to the voice.
Just Enterprise is the person who would be a major reason why Australia would want to change the government because we want that woman towards the front of Australian leadership and certainly in charge of the Indigenous Afairs portfolio. I want her in a cabinet. Her potential is again to go as far as her career will let her go, and that is in this country, all the way to leadership and potentially the Prime minister ship. I think she's that good.
Another example, so when the going gets tough, we band together and we do have an Australian spirit and I think in more recent times that spirit has been diminished because of the politics of radical leftists who want to categorize us and label us all and clamp us all together in particular groups.
Now spoking of the type of leadership that we're not all that excited about the Prime minister. Another pole pops up today. It tells a grim story about where the Prime Minister is and where labor is months out from an election. Surprise surprise buying a four point three million dollar holiday house because your missus is are coast. Does it really go down well with people? This pole, by the way, did not come from a far right wing thin tank. It comes from the turbul Times. The essential
poll published in the Guardian. Here is the primary vote. This is the primary vote of the parties compared to twelve months ago. The LNP is up three to thirty five Labours down five to twenty eight percent. That is shocking. They will lose plenty of seats to the Greens, not just the LNP or the Liberal National Party depending on where you are in the country. The Greens not surging again. I thought that their issues when it came to renting
would be helping, but their overall vote is down. Why because as Kieran Gilbert had said before they have associated themselves with some pretty ugly stuff. The Independence are up by two percent. One Nation is up one percent, seven percent, UAP is at two percent. We don't know what factor they will be at the next election, but that's certainly two percent that will be floating around. That matches when it comes to preferences. And six percent of people remain undecided.
Oh and you know how the Liberal Party apparently has a problem with women, Well, guess with this poll shows the Labor Party does, because according to men, the primary vote for the Liberal Party thirty seven percent, Labor Party thirty one. Guess which has a lower number just twenty six percent of women. A quarter of women in Australia say that their first preference vote will be for Albow
and his mates. That is a damning figure. So they can carry on as much as they want about how big a problem Peter Dutton is and the Liberal Party's problem with women the Labor Party. Just a quarter of all women surveyed by the Guardian say that they are willing to vote for the Labor Party should an election be held anytime soon. By the way, in terms of the leadership, again, four point three million dollars because you
know Jerdie's accosty Judie Sacosti. The Prime Minister is sitting in a place where forty eight percent of people disapprove with his prime ministership. That is up five points in a year. The approvals down and they don't know number is down. So literally don't know when to disapprove, approve, when to disapprove. There's only one thing that's growing and that is the disapproval with the Prime Minister. I don't know, but Peter Dutton's the problem. Peter dun't. Peter dun't. Peter dun't.
Petter dunn't. He's got all the problems right, he's more unpopular. No, his approval level is up nine points in twelve months to forty five percent. His disapproval is down four points and they don't know number. This is really big. They don't know number didn't get put onto the disapproved. It walked straight from dun'now to approve in twelve months. So the Labour Party may well have a plan that they're going to go all after Peter Dutton all the time.
Reality is he is not the unpopular one. The prime Minister is the unpopular one. The Liberal Party does not have its problem with women according to this poll. It is the Labor Party. But the media, which of course will follow the dirt unit that the government's going to try to set up, will try to do their best. But it seems at this point in time where their challenge of being able to hold on to a majority, in my view, is gone. We are now talking about
how big that minority government is going to be. There is a breaking point on how low they can go. Maybe housing might be the issue that some people think is going to magically turn around and save the Prime minister. Certainly lefty organizations are obsessed with negative gearing and have been for the past well few years because in twenty nineteen, the Great Bill Shorten, well, he was going to make everything better when it came to negative gearing, but then
Australians rejected it. Right but just the same way they've rejected his climate target. It just got lipstick on a pig and that's what they put up in twenty twenty two, and I hope I was going to the next election in twenty twenty five they'll do something about negative gearing. Hence why the Sydney Morning Herald was the one leading the charge that secret talks were underway trying to force
this into an issue. It's won. The government claims they don't want to go anywhere near it and sorry, after story after story by the Channeline newspapers follows along with what clearly is their position, which is that negative gearing needs to change. How the problem is. Somebody should tell them to check out a pole that appeared in the other news outlet that is owned by nine Sidney Morning Herald.
The Freshwater Pole shows forty four percent of people support negative gearing as it currently is, thirty nine percent oppose eighteen percent are up for grabs. So yes, eighteen percent dropped on top of thirty nine gets you over fifty percent. But of course it ain't going to be that. So if it ends up being a scenario, well, let's imagine it goes fifty to fifty oh eighteen percent half of eighteen.
That would be enough for the supporting of negative gearing and thus no change to still be the majority position of Australia. Funny about that, Australians, when we say something, we kind of mean it. We did about negative gearing and negative gearing changes in twenty nineteen. Those who think, oh, look, we can just shuffle to this and shuffle to that.
Guess what no reality is. If even half of those don't know split fifty to fifty, the majority would be in favor to break it down by age, gender, and renters and people have paid off the houses. Thank you for this detail that again comes from the city, from the financial review. The people who own a house or are trying to pay it off, fifty three percent they don't change the system fifty six percent For those that have paid off the house. Unsurprisingly, forty four percent of
renters say the system should change. A property investor sixty four percent says, please don't change it. Somebody who doesn't have an investment property but may well be paying off or owns her own house pretty much fifty to fifty or forty forty there. When it comes to young people, it is in favor of a change until thirty four. Then it's even at thirty five, and then over fifty five it is clearly in favor of the system that currently exists. But you know nothing to see here, However,
Australia voted a few years ago. Don't expect it to change again now let's get to the United States, where again we are rather excited because we are within that two week window. Tomorrow is two weeks to go till the American election. I won't bore you with too much data tonight because I wanted to focus in and around Queensland. Now. Interestingly,
Nate Silver, guy I've spoken about a lot. He was a guy who got it really wrong in twenty sixteen when he was running one of those websites predicting seven percent this and twenty percent chance of this. He was suggesting Hillary would win based off the data. He got bitten on the backside. He tweeted this today about the closing days of this election. Not sure to what extent it's intentional, but the last couple of weeks feel twenty
sixteen ish. Trump is dominating the news coverage with a bunch of stunts that aren't really issues that Harris wants to be closing on. So let's compare where things were four years ago when Trump lost and eight years ago when Trump won. In twenty twenty, Biden led by seven and a half points nationally, Harris leads by less than
one percent. Hillary nationally was leading by six point two yet lost Hillary was leading, as you can see in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, or we all know that all of those did not end up coming home. In fact, Florida we all know was very pro Trump in the end. Biden was leading all bar one state in the Swing States four years ago. Now all bar what one of the states currently Trump is leading. So Clinton isn't just outperforming
Kamala Harris and she was in a losing campaign. Biden, who only just won the states in the swing, well, he was leading by way more than she is. But now, according to the polls, Trump is in the position where he is leading, meaning if it's twenty sixteen ish, the people who think that the Poles are heading their way are the Trump people who would be surprised by a
Harris victory. We'll talk about that with Meg and Kelly a little bit later, but when you want to compare Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris, you can just watch them. Well done to whoever edited this.
I am second tired of the negative diadarind of vial, dangerous, hazier than be in.
Your line of people, who's a poor Donald Trump?
It is time for.
Us to say no, we are.
Not going backwards, We're going forward.
Wow, that's the way she's closing. She thinks things are different. Eight years later, the polls say no. It's twenty sixteen ish. Quick break back with more. You're on Paul Murray Live, No Sorts, No Left East tonight we'll talk about Queensland, but lot more and then Meghan Kelly before we've done. Don't forget tomorrow night, special edition of the program, A pub test from Brisbane. All right, thank you so much
for watching Meghan Kelly in a couple of minutes. Let's get into it all right now with James Ashby of course running for one Nation doing so in the seat of Keppel. I'm reading good things. The man's getting close. We back him all the way he comes with the Paul Murray bump. All right, don't even worry about the hat of ites, just go in and back him in. And the lovely Holly Hughes, of course is always here
to help joining us. Well, she should be in the man cave, but I think something's broken, so I appreciate you being here anyway, my friend. And now James, I want to talk before we get into to your sense of things and minor party vote all the rest of it. I wanted to explain to people about what is the maths of this election. Okay, for the LMP to become the governor, they need twelve seats. Ten of those are in regional areas. They will of course not win all
of those. The assumption would be one nation has a good crack of those, KAP has a good crack at those, maybe in a d independent or so. So they have to start moving a little bit closer to Brisbane. The closer you get to Brisbane, the harder it is for the LNP to win a seat. And as we're seeing in the polling during the campaign, Miles has somehow been
able to fortify himself the closer against to Brisbane. Do you think this thing is going to be close and the best case for the LMP is falling over the line rather than bursting through the line.
Well, it's starting to appear that way, and largely because I've seen a tactic on these polling booths over the last couple of days, in particular the end of last week and the start of this week, where now the unions are starting to get involved and they are really playing hardball. They're sending a message out there to voters that a coalition government, any conservative is going to criminalize abortions. And it's just a false narrative, but it seems to
be working. There's AD's been run everywhere and it's clearly working down in the inner city parts or the southeast corner. Now it's just a lie, But these are the tactics that Labor use. But not to mention Paul, the tactics of lies are now starting to appear within the LMP.
This is how.
Desperate the two major parties have become as we go into the final four days. This is what arrived in letterboxes in Keppel. Don't risk it suggesting that if you vote for one nation, we're going to support Labor. Now I've said it from that David arm On, that we are going to port we're going to put Labor and the Greens last, and it's been said for ever in a day, it's the most dishonest campaign from the l MP.
It proves to me how low they're prepared to go win at any cost in a seat like this, and I think a lot of people in seats like Keppel will not appreciate the dishonesty from David Chris and fully and more importantly Ben Riley, who's running the campaign, he signed off on this. Now, if you want mates and politics, don't ask for the L ANDP, go for a dog because so you're not going to get honesty out of
either of the major parties. And this is what frustrates people because when they get in they tell big porky pies. You know, the police service working perfectly fine, the hospital system working perfectly fine. It's not And we just need a bit of honesty because if we're going to get change, you've got to be honest with yourself as politicians because only then can we impact change in regional parts as well as in the southeast corner. So it's a real
desperate ploy at the moment. I know both parties are desperate to govern in their own right, but if they need to use the minor parties to stumble across the line, look, one nation going to be your best friend for then they can't see it. They see us as the enemy for some reason.
And again this is the absurdity, right, which is that if you squeeze too hard, then again, if it does come down to very specific negotiations one two people, it can end up in weird places. Holly again, you know, I only ever profess to be as best as possible, streets, smarts, you know, all around of it. But if I've got it right about the nature of Queensland, right, that it's a bloody big place. But because so many people live
in the southeast, that's where the seats are. If you've got to win twelve, you can't just assume you're going to do it all north of the sunny coast. What do you think about the way labor is closing and this particular tactic. I think it's as big a lie as medi scare, but I think it could be almost as successful about pushing this right to the line.
It's an extraordinary debate point or argument that's being put. And we're not America, but there seems to be this desperation to inject American style politics and American issues into our political narrative. It just is extraordinary to me. I've watched most of the debate before I head out here, and I couldn't believe the length of time spent debating
the issue of abortion. I mean, it just beggars belief in a state like Queensland that we know we saw during COVID, how ill prepared they are, how bad their hospital system is, and the youth crime, and that is north of Brisbane. I know when you get up to Townsville, and my geography is not great, James, so I'm sorry you know where you are and this sort of without having a map up there. But we know that the youth crime is a significant issue and that there are
horrible cases that have occurred. I find it extraordinary that anyone would look to reward or labor and put them back in again. I am I have to say, James, I am horrified that that brochure came out saying that one nation would put that would put labor and the Greens above the LMP. With that is that is actually quite breathtaking.
Yeah, ridiculous. And also got to think about a scenarios that the federal elections coming around and those one nation preferences are going to matter, that UAP preferences are going to matter. And just because something plays you know, well in Fortitude Valley or in you know, Fitzroy and Melbourne where your actual numbers are all right, guys, we could go on all the way through. If anyone wants more information,
how do they find it about your candidacy, James. I want people to be able to read up before they go and vote, particularly in Keppel on Saturday, Paul.
They can just go to James Ashby dot com AU or my Facebook page. And I want to make one last point, Paul, I think this is really important. I know there's not many Labor viewers out there, but anyone that may regularly vote for Labor, you need to understand they're going to lose likely this election, and they've decided to give their preferences to the Greens and the LNPs. So if the imp trip across the line, it's because Labor gave the opposition their preferences. Really important for any
Labor member or Labor voter to remember. So go to my website, James Ashby dot com do AU if you want to find out more.
Good Man good Plug always happen to back you in. I really like James has been very kind to us for a very long time. I want you to work get behind him in the seat of Kempel. All right, let's go back to national issues. Holly. You saw me mention before about the inner details of this essential poll where according to their poll today, Labor has a lower vote with women than the LNP. There's a greater disapproval
with Anthony Abernezi than Peter Dutton. We know that an election is not this weekend, but we're on our way towards one. We are starting to get into a place where Labor is going to have to do something extraordinary to change the subject here. And I don't know they've got it in it. They've already tried two little too late tax cuts. I don't know what they've got, but they're going to have to take in something pretty big because it's not going to be uga booger about Peter Dutton.
Well, I think they've got a hail Mary out on getting a rate cut or some sort of massive reversal fortunes in people's economic circumstances. We know the cost of living is the number one, two, three, four and five issue for most Australian families, and I think they are just absolutely hanging out that somehow or other there is a change of fortune. I think what was really interesting in that poll is how low their primary vote has gone.
It is now significantly lower than it was when they won the last election, and that is you know, it's really concerning from the major party's perspective how low the primary votes are going. Certainly the LMP's gone up a little bit, but they're still you know, going back to my campaigning days twenty years ago, when it used to kind of be forty labor, forty liberal, you know, twenty percent in the middle. It's just it's nothing like that now.
And I think that's really problematic because you are going to see these sort of messy parliaments, hung parliaments that are going to be really difficult to navigate going through. When they do need to be big reforms, there does need to be big discussions. Yet you can't have the big discussions when you've got you know, a lot of lunatics running in the asylum.
Yeah, well, thankfully. Look, it's not great for the state, but at least it's not Upper House in Queensland. So you formed numbers downstairs. That's it for the next four years. So should you be a majority or if it ends up being a minority, well, it's always fun to watch every day now, James. We've talked before about medical cannabis.
One nation's actually led the way in terms of people's availability to it, But there are some examples where some people seem to be taking the piss in the way that say people in California used to before it was legalized, right, which is get the doctor's prescription where you say, yeah, i've got really sore eyes. Oh great, tick and flick, you can go and get it right. And according to a story today, one Australian doctor was prescribing twelve thousand
patients cannabis scripts in a six month period. Now there's ways to get this stuff online. It's all legal, it's all above board. What does this tell you? Obviously a lot of people want access to it. Let's all assume each and every one of them deserve it. But I don't reckon one doctor in twelve thousand is the way to do it, well, Paul.
The reason one Nation supported this from twenty sixteen, when we'd run a very strong campaign to make sure that we legalized and put in place the doctors who could prescribe legal cannabis for medical purposes was because it's good for pallative care patients, cancer patients, people who've got muscle spasms and PTSD, those sorts of things. They're genuine medical needs and rather than people up on opioids. Why we
decided this was because opioids. There's one hundred and fifty people presented to hospit one hundred every single day through opioids. Three people every day die because of it, and so that's the narrative we went down. It's a common sense approach. Look, if people are over prescribing by all means, look into them. But please do not throw out medical cannabis in this country. It is dearly needed and it's a much better option than we can opioids.
All right, guys, thank you, I do appreciate it. We will resume the conversation again next week. Megan Kelly straight after the break. For the time of the week, I'm sure it's yours two. As we talked to Megan Kelly, host of The Megan Kelly Show in the United States, two weeks to go. Now. I thought Kamala was all about joy and vibes, but the actual closing message is more like Biden in a pantsuit. Basically, Trump is evil, Trump is awful, and she's taking out on the road
Dick Cheney's daughter. This doesn't look like the team that's winning, does it.
It's yes, of course, it's all turned forget the joy now, it's all negative about Trump and parading Liz Cheney out there. They really want to get the Liz Cheney Republicans. Well you did Liz Cheney and her dad, Dick Cheney. Those are the Liz Cheney Republicans. That the list does not go on past those two. So you can parade Liz Cheney around all you want to, all these road stops
and rallies. They're convincing no one. That's not persuasive. So then her other goal is reportedly to get Nicky Haley Republicans, to get those say twenty percent in the primaries who voted for Nicki Haley and did not vote for Trump. Those people do not Trump. When it's a Trump Kamala Harris race. They preferred a more neo conversion of conservatism, and they might have preferred someone who is less dramatic and controversial than Trump, but that does not bring you,
as a Republican into Kamala Harris territory. They're just pretending that it does. The problem for them is there's no
more democratic base to stimulate. The men have fled. All they're left with is defeat men who don't mind being cast as beta asparagus kale eating Barack Obama types, and all the alphas have left for the Republican Party because they've been shamed for the fact that they are men, never mind white men, never mind white men who might actually have jobs and be traditional and want to get married. So they've fled the party and now they're trying to
run those numbers up with the women. But there's only so far those numbers can go. They're not all women are lefties. Many women who are more conservative they're going to vote Trump, and so they've hit this wall. They can't get black men, they can't get Hispanic men. So they're circling the wagons doing whatever they can. But it's literally down to like Liz Cheney and Nikki Haley Republicans, which is a either very small or non gettible pool for her.
Now. A bit of a theme in tonight show is not to be defeatists, but to explain when two things can happen, two things can happen, meaning yes, despite the fact that it all looks like it's going Trump's way and we'd all like it to go Trump's way, those of us that are having this conversation or watching us on the Telly. Reality is we could wake up and Harris ends up winning. So let's have the chat before
that might happen. What can you see that maybe isn't as obvious to everyone else if she does win, about how she's winning.
No, it's a good question because you don't want to be surprised, and we could be because it's so tight, notwithstanding in the fact that Trump's leading in all those pulls, it's by a little it's tight. Take tay tape. Yeah, I'll tell you what I think it is. First of all, all the people I talked to her are on the ground trying to get people out to vote on Team Trump, and are you know, really running hurt on that in several states are telling me the same thing, fifty to fifty.
It's fifty to fifty. We need everyone to get out everyone. So they're not breathing a sigh of relief at all. No one's getting back to me with he's running away with it. And even I've talked to top top pollsters who are more on the inside than they are the out who say the same thing. They don't say he's losing. They don't say he's going to lose. They say it couldn't be any tighter, and they're you know, nervous, not because they think he's going to lose, but because it's
too tight for comfort. So that's one thing. Secondly, there is a real question about whether they did fix the polls. They overpolled Dems back in twenty sixteen. That's why we had these huge margins for Hillary Clinton when we all found out later Trump won because they were over sampling Dems, and in particular were sampling college educated Dems, which is entirely a DEM group, right, Demo. Those are not Trump's
bans or his voters. So then they thought they fixed it in twenty twenty, but you know it was those poles were wrong too. They had Joe Biden way up. I mean, Joe Biden did not win by those margins. I just read to you, you know, seven point eight, seven point five.
It was tight.
It was very tight. As you know, we won by about forty thousand votes in the swing states. So they may have done a little better, but they weren't fixed. And then they said well, yeah, by twenty twenty two, they had removed the over inclusion of DEM inclined voters, and that's why we had a predicted red wave that never materialized, because they fixed the polls by twenty twenty
two to factor in more Republican voters. But we can't rely on that because Trump was not on the ballot, and Trump, as the world knows, is a very unique force. And Trump without a ballot without Trump isn't entirely different
animal than a ballot with Trump. Who So that's one of the things that makes this whole thing unsteady and unknowable, Like we're going to find out on the week of November fifth, whether they really have fixed the polls this time or if they've over corrected the polls this time. And having said all that, let me give you one
other fact. The one poll that they said was the most accurate poll of twenty twenty, the most accurate poll of twenty twenty is Atlas Intel, and they just released their latest poll and it shows Trump with a two point seven percentage point lead over Harris on national level.
That's zero point seven percentage points outside their margin of error, which is two And when you add in the full field like a third party candidates, it's Trump up three point four percentage points, and it has Trump with a nine point lead over independence over Kamala Harris. When it comes to independence. It also has Trump up one point two percentage point in Michigan, up three in Pennsylvania, up two in Georgia, up point six in Arizona, up point three in Nevada, and it has Harris up two and
one in North Carolina and Wisconsin, respectively. So that's Trump leading in six, well five, let me say one, two, three, four, five of the seven swing states. That's very good news for Trump. That's the most accurate poll last time around. So look, it could go either way. Paul, and get out the vote efforts are going to have so much to do, they're saying, to get out the vote effort
could be worth three points to her. Well, if he's up three point four and the margin of era is two, you can subtract two from that, so maybe he's up one point four and you can get out the voters worth three for her on election day. Yeah, this could still go her way, And it could go her way, not easily but kind of big time if you add on three percentage points to all the swing states.
We love you, Meghan, who show that Megan Kelly show could be heard live on Sirius XM, on podcasts, or of course on YouTube. We'll see you next week.
Always a pleasure, paul I, see you next week,