From the skying setter. This is Paul Murray live. Thank you, Charry, what going on Monday night? Lots to get to Thank you to everyone, and come and saw us in Tazzy Loncest in his spectacular.
The weather much better there than in other parts of the country today.
Go and see it with your own eyes. Hang out, not just for a long weekend, do the whole week.
Now, let's get to I'm sorry, Lydia Thorpe, right, I say sorry because this is what she wanted right.
Royals are in Canberra.
King's just finished his speech because she's an elected senator with Labor Party preferences. By the way, of course, she's in the room whether we like it or not, which means there she is, front and setter, getting ready to carry on like the pork job that she can be she is. And you've heard all of this today. Oh okay, please all right, yes, thank you, thank you.
The bit okay, enough enough. The bit that I wanted to show you.
Though, was a little reassurance about how your fellow Australian feels when she does this. I want you to pay attention to the bit you probably didn't see on your six PM news and geez, haven't I got it for the six pm news at least one of the channels tonight. Wait till I show you their obvious spinning of the ball. But if you actually have a listen to when she was ranting and raving for forty five seconds, listen to the reaction, it's silence.
Nothing happened.
No one is murmuring, no one is yelling back at her, no one's saying shut up. Everyone was just collectively embarrassed at the moment took place. Again, you didn't see this when this story was being pumped up towards literally the lead story tonight, meaning we give her the attention that she wants, and yes, by talking about it now the feedback loop. But you can't not say that one person made it all about them today.
That is a gentleman that concludes today's formalities.
You know.
I mean, she can do whatever she wants, right, and the question about how the country became what it became is a long and complicated one.
When we talk about it all forever, it will feel but just fair.
Inker She's allowed to have it both ways right, the way that she is going to earn one point to median dollars over six years is for her to be a member of the Australian Senate. The only way you can be a member of the Australian Senate is if you swear allegiance to the King as the ultimate head of the system in which we live in.
Now, of course we all know that she turned that into a stunt about herself.
But because she wanted the cash, and because she obviously wanted the role in Australian politics, she gave the oath, but very clearly.
Fingers behind her back.
Now, am I suggesting that she should be booted out of the Parliament.
No, but what's the.
Point of getting people to give these oaths if they clearly don't mean anything. And secondly, if it's if the colony and if modern Australia doesn't that mean if the Parliament doesn't that mean the very job that she has is one by her own logic is irrelevant. Now, there isn't a country in the world that does not have
some sort of complicated history. But for some reason, Australia is in just this absolute inability position to be able to understand that yes, it's past as it's passed, but its future is unlimited and the future is guaranteed to have the modernity that is only possible because of those events. No matter how difficult they have been in the past.
Even if all the street names change, all the political systems change, we will still be living in the modern twenty first century Western country that people like Lydia Thorpe seek to have all of the advantages of, while simultaneously then just putting themselves on top of in terms of the leadership structure. But the reason I mentioned all this even more tonight to you is this stuff is making
news back in the UK. So despite the fact that last night I showed you that very cute little girl, little Gabriella, little four year old Kurtseying a beautiful example not of an obedient Australia but just a polite Australia. Instead the Sun newspaper screaming at people this morning in the UK. The Mirror again screaming at people in the UK. This is what they think is going on in Australia now.
When I was in the UK after her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the iond passed away, I was asked more questions about a republic there that I've ever had conversations in this country. So in many ways what comes out of these royal visits is going to be a bit of
a caricature. And if the caricature is that the locals are restless, that there's such a significant portion of Australia that a senator thought that it was to their political advantage to scream at the King, then Australia must be teetering in a different direction than, of course the reality of where it is. Republicans, monarchists, people who voted yes, people who voted no would be embarrassed by the behavior
of Lydia Thorpe. Now that does not mean that she needs to sit quiet, never open her mouth, never be able to say what she wants to say about what she believes to be the original sin that has not been dealt with by this country. But make no mistake in the UK looking at where our mutual monarch is both here while being reported back there. This was how it was going down on Sky News in the UK in the past two hours as they are moving right into the middle of their prime time during the day.
That's Australia where King Charles royal tour has been derailed by a senator who's used an event in Parliament has to accuse the King of genocide before being escorted out by security.
Alison, how bid the baby.
Now again?
Notice the way the news covers it. A royal tour has been derailed. There was a forty five second moment when silence was replaced with her yelling that was met by silence, not applause, not doing nothing. There was not hundreds of thousands of people who were rebelling against the visit of King Charles and Queen Camilla. Instead, the picture that will be told back to the UK tonight.
About us is the way Lydia thought behaved today.
Of course, she's making the most of it because not only does she get to do a myriad of interviews in the next twenty four hours here in Australia, she also was interviewed by the very same people who introduced the story the way they did.
Satasa Thorpe is with us now. Hello to santasor thank you for taking the time to join us here on Scyne News Breakfast. Why did you do it?
I did it for truth telling, global truth telling about the royals who cause so much devastation.
Her decision to scream at King Charles about what happened in Queen Victoria and other royal periods of time. That's the story, because yes it's more interesting than the other story. But just as I told you yesterday, Australia a good day yesterday, Why because people turned out and had a nice time. Some thing happened again today and again I'm sorry to all of the people who actually did turn up today and enjoyed the moment.
Again. They are not.
Boot licking monarchists who think that the House of Windsor is better than any of us. No, they just respect the tradition. They notice that it's a global figure. They've seen this person in the heart of our political and ceremonial life, or they've seen it in the tabloids. They recognize their service. And people turned up today, thousands of them. No, it wasn't six million. And if you think that that means,
oh Australia's on the verge of being a republic. Please It's a Monday, weren't a public holiday, Okay, lots of people turned up. That beautiful girl who curtsied yesterday. It was a nice, cute, lovely, warm moment. And then they go in a couple of days, no one the better,
no one the worse. But the representation of what happened today because one person decided to have a one person test that not a single person applauded inside the room is a perfect example about sometimes how the media takes a moment and then decides.
That's the only thing that matters.
Forget the thousands of other people, forget the actual majority of the day on and oh no, no, this forty five seconds because it's colorful, and then they're throwing all the adjectives and that's all anyone remembers.
And the next time you get to go to.
The UK, somebody says, oh, so, how many people feel like that lady did? If you actually told them, well, not enough to get her reelected, they might be slightly shocked. But that is the reality of where we sit right now.
So for those of you who actually did have a nice day to day or enjoyed watching it on the television here, listening to the radio, all the rest of it, well, here are some of the people who had a good time today and did Australia proud again, not because they were bootlicking, just because they were enjoying a nice moment in the sun of Australia.
It was just remarkable, just once in a lifetime experience. Oh yeah, one o the little Now.
As you know, it's not quite a mystery that the program that has the bloke's name on it is an opinion show.
It has been for fifty years next year.
All Right, I told you everything, and you've seen everything that's happened personally and professionally, and we've ridden the roller coaster of politics and real life. Okay, but there is a little price to pay when you decide to be an opinion person, all right. Upside is that people like yourself, we develop a bond.
There's a loyalty.
And every time I hit harder do it for you, and every time you cheer on, I hear it back and we get stronger by the day.
And as I've told you before, yep, plenty of times.
And I've lost friends because of what I do for a job, what I say here on the television. We also have scenarios where that rest of the media that want to pretend we don't exist, or they pretend that we have no skill as broadcasters or television makers all the rest of it. Right, But the people who are of course celebrated are those that are the straight news journalists, no opinion whatsoever in the way they do their reporting.
Perfect example, Channel nine News not an opinion piece, but the news.
As straight as the straight mat is supposed to be.
Jeez, I wonder if the reporter is a Republican or not.
This was six PM tonight.
Next month marks twenty five years since Australia had the chance to walk away from the monarchy, but we didn't. Now a next vote seems generations away. As the anthem proclaims, this king long to reign over us.
It means Australian kids.
Won't get the chance to be head of state. I love your glasses, but they can at least look the part.
Okay, it's not quite as obvious as my opinion. You see the little swing in there.
We had a chance to walk away, but we didn't. No, just like twelve months ago, we had an opportunity to change the constitution. Australians made the decision and said no, we don't believe the system needs to change.
That's what happened in nineteen ninety nine.
Every major company, all news organizations, all the cool kids were screaming for the rooftops, for the vote yes, but guess what, it didn't work, the same as it didn't in.
Twenty twenty three.
The idea that, but for generations, we will not discuss the matter.
We'll discuss it when.
There is a genuine ground swell of support or a need for it to happen, will debate it at the time. But the idea that will never vote ever again, and therefore these kids will never get the chance to grow up to be head of state. Come on, how many kids get to grow up and be the governor general?
Please let alone that.
But you get my point right, Just watch the little spins that they put in it. Because all these people who consider themselves to be better than what we do here each and every night, consider themselves to be more professional, or higher class or better operators, well, guess what, they also show their opinion, but they also get to hand out little awards for their objectivity to each other. Now, the only person who may well have been just as excited as King Charles to b in Camber today was
the Prime Minister. Why because he wasn't having to talk about the domestic issues, which we all know are a.
World of trouble.
Peter Dutton, by the way, excellent speech that he delivered today when he was talking about all the people that were putting on their finest and clipping their hair and standing up tall, and that was just the Republicans because they all just loved the idea of the photo op.
I thought all that was very clever.
Real news, another poll, terrible news for Anthony Abernici, this one via the Financial Review, which I'm sure wasn't going to dominate the political world today. But now that the moment has passed in terms of the events of the Royals, they're back at the Opera House tomorrow.
This is worth having a look at. Have a look at this graph.
It'll show you the preferred prime minister rankings since January of last year and today. Pretty obvious one's going up, one's coming down. They're basically now sitting at the same mark. The latest Australian Financial Review fresh Water Strategy poll shows forty four percent of respondents prefer mister Abernesi as Prime Minister, compared to forty three percent for mister Dutton, meaning the
foes are statistically tired after six months in office. In December twenty two, mister Aberzi led Dutton fifty five to twenty nine, it is now forty four to forty three.
Oh yeah. And for those who believe.
That the Prime Minister is more loved by Australians, not just preferred, not quite. As we've told you, the person who has the lower favorable number is Anthony Abernesi. The person with the higher unfavorable number is Anthony Abernesi. But of course today the shocking break glass in case of emergency news was that the Labour Party's going to go after Peter Dutton know the next election.
Mate, they haven't stopped. They haven't stopped.
They're still campaigning against Scott Morrison and he's long gone. Meantime, have a look again at the primary vote over time. Now again you can get lost in what this pole says versus that pole. You can see the trend in ain't the friend of the Prime Minister going from the low forties now to the mid thirties. The Liberal Party going again from the just in and around forties to now mid forties. If they stay at mid forties, well,
normal election, they would win the election. But perhaps the most interesting thing in the polls that shows just how big a hole currently the government is in. I want you to see an image of all of the different issues, and then I'll get into who is preferred and who
is not on those issues. You can easily see that on these particular issues, cost of living, seventy two percent of people say that's the number one issue, housing forty four percent, managing the economy twenty eight percent, health and social care, followed by crime, environment, asylum seekers. Now this is the graphic that I was trying to get to getting ahead of myself, but my excellent production team said no, no, do the first bit first, Paul, because that would make more sense.
Thank you. I appreciate the advice.
Well, as you can see here, best issue for the government welfare, worst issue crime and social order.
Best issue for.
The LNP is things like national security managing the economy. The worse for them are things like welfare and benefits. But as I just told you, the number one issue in the country is cost of living, the number two issue is housed and the number three is managing the economy. Well guess who's winning on all three of those issues. On cost of living, thirty nine percent back in the Coalition, compared to just a quarter of voters for the ALP.
When it comes to housing, it's thirty five percent for the Coalition compared to twenty seven percent for the Labor Party. When it comes to managing the economy forty three percent twenty seven. Things slightly get better for the Labour Party on health and social care, but then let's go back to crime and social order forty two percent back the opposition as opposed to the Labor Party just twenty three percent.
Oh and all those people who think that nuclear is such a terrible, awful idea will guess what people like the zero emission side of it. Why because the Coalition are now what less than five or about five points below the Labor Party when it comes to environment and climate change.
Remember when all of that was the only thing that ever madded.
And then you know, reality kicked in when it came to economics, and we are where we are. By the way, another blowout immigration and asylum seeker's forty three percent. The voters are going very hard and for obvious reasons there with the opposition, not with the government. But then there's
something we should take notice of. Late on a Sunday night, you may well have been distracted by almost anything but the Spotlight program on Channel seven last night well, they decided to donate fifteen minutes of network television time to a profile slash puff piece all about the man looking into the future that would, of course, would be none other than Grimjim Charmers now Albo, if you believe Labor Party people, is one of the greats of all time.
The expectation is that he could be Hawk, Keeting and rad all in one, and he could rule for the next dozen elections. Reality of polling right now is that he will be lucky to get away with the minority government, and if things are really bad between now and then, it could even be worse. Now, his assumption is that if we win minority government, that's fine, we'll hold on,
or the lefty MPs will fall in our way. We'll get to do a whole bunch of lefty stuff we couldn't otherwise do, but we've been dragged to do it. Or when they suggest really stupid things like treaties or something like that, we turn around and say, oh no, no, no, and then we'll sell ourselves as reasonable and that'll be the whole play for the next three years should he
be re elected in a minority government. But if things get worse during that minority government, who would theoretically be an option for the Labor Party to look at and remember, they changed Rudd Gillard Rudd and there's nothing to say that MP's facing oblivion wouldn't think about doing exactly the same thing, regardless of what the rules say. And while two thirds of the Labour Party has to vote to get rid of a sitting prime minister, fifty one or
fifty plus one need to change the rules. So you get that the thresholds are a little lower than maybe they seen. Well again, Jim Chance, he was doing a little profile piece about a whole series of choices and changes that he has made in his life and whether or not he would actually challenge Anthony.
Ib needs you to be the leader of the Labor Party.
Watch this pick the wheasel worlds and imagine, is this the guy who's one.
Hundred percent behind the current bloke Qualo tape.
In what circumstances would you seek the leadership?
I can't see any circumstances frankly the year.
But if a good treasurer in a great Labor government which is led by Anthony from start to finish, well that's seventeen. When I reflect on that or occasionally when I'm asked about love this people like yourself. You know, I'm quite proud of the decision that I took in twenty nineteen to support Anthony for the leadership.
I think that decision has been vindicated.
You did have a credit for a while there, and that leadership challenge he did shows an intention to do that at some point in the future.
The labor you want to be the leader, just say you want to be the leader of.
The election loss the leadership is thrown open.
Is he going to just say one day?
Everyone's processes so you're not closing off that possibility in the future.
I just can't see it happening. Yeah, I can't see it.
You're never going to lose.
Well, I can't see us being in that position.
You're a lot younger than him. He's not going to be around for it.
Okay, except so this is.
A good question, right, So, even if he doesn't exist, would you like to be with you labor.
Lead him or not?
But if you are, that obviously would be a possibility and a reality for you that there'll be a time where you're going to have a crack at the leadership.
I can't really see the circumstances that would be the case.
Yeah, out boy falls apart when remember my word is my bond. Ironically, that promise was also made on the Spotlight program, so perhaps keep an eye on what was said or more importantly not said, and speaking of this show, because honestly I was watching this on the plane today coming back from Lonnie. This was extraordinary that this went to where I mean, generally speaking a fifteen minute profile.
Piece of the Treasurer of Australia.
But maybe there again with some insurance policy being taken out here on having the inside run on a potential next leader. A couple of things I want to talk about here though, first, which I think you're a little bit weird. Okay, Now, the first year is to do nothing to do with the economy. Instead, this is to do with some personal choices. Now you know that Jim Charmers addressed in a Good Weekend piece in like half a sentence he had to give.
Up the grog because you know it was a little loose on the grock.
No one knows what that means, What does that mean? What does it mean in the camera bubble of how loose you are? Who knows what that means well, Spotlight decided to get into this, and they did a very long, meandering journey via his health as a reason to why he gave up the booze. But then we get to a question from Mark Riley, which I think is about trying to go back to the word loose and work out what that actually meant.
All the tape, that decision means you're leaving the booze behind him? Are you're leaving other things behind? With any regrets about that time?
Oh?
No, no, I mean you learn from I wasn't healthy enough. You learn from that. You can always be healthier, you can always strike a more effective balance.
And I feel like I am now.
Can we play it again? Look, I'm serious. I have no idea what loose meant. I have no idea, all right, But you can see that sort of the cogs are going through his head where he says, what are you talking about?
But then he clearly doesn't say what are you talking about?
Because then Mark Riley, as the reporter, would have an opportunity to tell us what he was talking about again one more time.
That decision is you're leaving the booze behind him? Are you leaving other things? Behind with any regrets about that time.
Oh no, no, I mean you learn from I wasn't healthy enough. You learn from that you can always be healthier, You can always strike a more effective balance.
And I feel like I am now.
Feels like there's something in that pregnant pause right? Or am I just seeing something that's not there?
Whatever? Loose meant they're pregnant pause? At least might Riley try it and you could see the treasurer went no around that.
Queensland just a couple of days ago until first of the People's Forum tomorrow here on Sky News.
Then, of course we will be in Queensland for our pub test.
Peter Dutton will be there to take some questions from our audience at a pub in Brizzy. Will also have a chat about the Queensland election and with a couple of days to go, David Cruci Foley this is what he was doing today on the trail. They will then be retested in years one, three and five at school.
We are going to follow that.
Child through the journey of education and give them every chance they can to turn up at school and be their best.
Now he's talking about childcare changes.
Now, I always felt that inevitably things get a little tighter towards an election. Now we know recent poles had shown that the l ANDP was just flying away, a Labor Party was sinking like a stone will surprise, surprise, not flying as high and not sinking as low. However, the headline that was produced was that Stephen Miles catches
David Chrusop fully as the preferred premier. But if you actually go and have a look inside this document, the only people who actually consider him to be the preferred premiere of Queen's out of the people who live in the inner metropolitan area. Now this is interesting because yes, there are an awful lot of seats in the southeast, but there isn't just the inner metropolitan area. There is the outer metropolitan areas. Then of course there's the GC
or the Sunny Coast. Then there's the regional areas, then there's the rural areas. Lots of ways to slice information out of Ququeensland. So yes, he got close, but that's because all of sort of the super inner city lefties, well they would like anyone but a liberal. In terms of the primary vote, yes, things are ever so slightly back, but still you can see what the massive change is still the best part of seven to eight points since the election last time.
For the LNP labor back a little bit.
Now.
This is important because they've got to win twelve seats to win now, I think, and I don't know the exact numbers here, but I think that really the most confident they're feeling about right now is about fifteen rather than twelve.
They'd love to hope to go even higher than that.
And as we've seen in previous elections, you can reduce a government to enough people to sit in a tarrago. That's of course how Anisaja Palache ended up as the so called accidental premiere, re elected a couple of times as two party preferred. Again you can see basically the exact opposite of where it was at the last election,
and that produced a majority result. When it comes to Queensland, all wait watching Sea where there Tomorrow night for the People's Forum, Wednesday night for the pub test and Saturday night myself and Laura Jays will be side by say it is always on an election night going through the results at the top of the hour, along with Peter Quedline and all of the team that will be back in the studio lots to get to now the Act. Surprise, surprise,
the Labor Party won an election there. This is what the twenty sixth year in a row that the Labor Party will continue to well rule the city of public servants that was the only place in the Strada devoted. Yes, it really is an island within an and it's a bubble within a bubble whatever. Okay, it was a slightly better result for the Act lives, but the reality is it's a left leading city and we all know why. But I just wanted to give a non shout out
of the day. I don't know whatever laws is used to say shout out of the day or the ya for the day, whatever the opposite is Kate Carnell, former Liberal Party Chief Minister. She says the acteam May will not bother with democracy, will not bother with democracy.
Well that would garbage. Now, Look would.
Those of us who would like a different approach in the Act, like a different government. Is there a significant number of people who keep voting for the opposition who seemingly because of how many lefties there are, and the ACT don't get a chance to ever be the government. Sure, but why even vote if you can't win. There are plenty of minor parties, there are plenty of opposition parties, There are plenty of safe seats that are to the left or to the right. But anyway, she was making
that point today. She says, I think the great dilemma is why bother with democracy if you're not going to change governments. The whole point of electing governments is that you can change him from.
Time to time. What No, the democracy is the people get what they want.
And clearly the lefties of that part of Australia definitely keep wanting one government, the same bloody government, over and over and over and over again. Now I want to go to America because that will be a discussion we will have later in the program with none other than analyst Nielsen. I also buried the lead today because I was so focused on Lydia Thope making it all about her again. No, so look's no lefties tonight. That'll be fun. Now,
Hawgard was Donald Trump at Mackers. Now this was in Pennsylvania. The reason he was doing this was because Kamala Harris has long said, oh yeah, I used to work with McDonald's. There's no proof that she ever did so, he decided to work for whatever, fifteen minutes doing a stunt at McDonald's so he could say I've worked there longer than she has.
That's why this happened.
But does that not look like a guy who's really confident, really happy, really calm. He's seeing all the data saying, you know what, I'm a pretty good shot. And now, remember for this guy, unlike all that everyone we're all invested in, does he win?
Doesn't he win?
Remember this, he either wins the presidency or he will inevitably go through a whole series of legal processes and mean he goes to jail in the next two years. Does that look like a bloke who is playing those bigger hands. He ain't sweating it at all. Think about how you may go if you're betting one hundred dollars. He is literally betting the presidency or jail. Didn't seem happier than he actually is. Right now, here's some of
the reaction. And yes they were Trump supporters, lefties. No one thinks that a random member of the public would be able to roll up to an open window to a man who's been shot at twice.
Hey, I'm having a lot of fun here.
Everybody.
Thank you, mister president.
You men advised, but had many people they got you.
Hello everybody. And I know this is gomplements of Trump.
Okay, yes, I love it. Of course it's a stunt.
But the stunt was to prove that he had worked longer Abdols than she had, because it's part of an overall message, which is she's a fake.
You know that, and I know that that.
She sort of pretended that an upper middle class experience was a middle class experience, and middle is near low, so let's pretend that it was.
A low or working class. Of course, as for the media, they hated this.
Why because Trump won the day and when there's only what fifteen of them left? If he wins the day, while he's winning the poles, he's doing well, what.
Is the logic behind this going to a McDonald's.
I mean, we know the guy likes Big Max and fleur Fish, and he's used the word love to describe the way he feels about the food there before.
But what's this about.
There's no logic to it.
It's a stunt. He has not put forth in economic agenda. Now they know why he's there.
They just don't want to say it because it might open up the door on something that Harris is not Obama in a pants suit. Please, but the poles, because I want to explain something about this right all weekend.
Who's going to win? Is he going to win? How BIG's he going to win? By it?
Look, I am going before the data you've got, Okay, I spend more hours and I look at multiple versions of it, but it's.
Basically the poles.
Okay, and there are dozens of poles, but basically the seven states that matter. What you're able to do is put them all together, have a look at the average, and the average in all those swing states. Trump winning in all of those swing states. Now, if he wins in all of those swing states, he absolutely blows Kamala Harris away.
No question.
This thing is over a couple of hours into the counting. But that's not the way it actually is going to work. A little here, a little there, and it will most likely be a lot tighter than it seems.
So how do they work out the averages? Well, obviously they have a look at all of the poles.
Now, whether they cut it off at ten poles or twenty poles or thirty poles. I don't know, but here are the most recent poles in Pennsylvania. They show Trump winning, Trump winning, Trump winning, Harris winning, Trump winning, Trump winning, Trump winning, Harris Harris Trump.
So you see how you look at that picture and you.
Go okay, as an average kind of head in Trump's way. What about up in Wisconsin again, one of the blue wall states that if Trump wins these, he's going to win the presidency. Well, again, most recent pole says Harris is winning, but the average goes to Trump because there's two Trump wins, there's three ties, there's another Trump win, and there's another Harris win. You get my point. And finally again in North Carolina. Now this is the place that Trump won last time. He expects to win this time.
But Harris is leading in the most recent poll, a tie before that, and before that it's three percent for Harris. But then the poll before that it's five percent for Trump. So good luck working all this out.
Now.
Steve Cornaki is super lefty. He's sort of the data guy on MSNBC. It's his job to go and push the big screen and explain what's happening.
Now.
Obviously he is trying to find a way to tell people that polling averages which are looking good for Trump right now may will be a mirage and miraculously it's all going to be good for Harris. But why I can't tell you that Donald Trump to spunt the fact that he's leading with the bookies and all of the statistical models and the poles is dead definitely going to win.
It's because poles can be wrong.
They've been wrong in sixteen and twenty where they undercounted Trump's support and overcounted the Democrats. But let's just imagine for whatever reason, they're overcounting Trump people and undercounting Harris people.
He'll explain why.
Here's why that's important. These are the poll averages right now in all the battleground states. If those poles are off the same way they were in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty, Donald Trump is in great sheep. But these poll errors don't always happen in the same direction. If they're off by the same amount, but this time underestimating Democrats, this is what those states would look like.
So anyone who's saying, absolutely, hand on heart, I know what's going to happen, that's great.
They're going with their gut. Okay, if you.
Are following the data to make sure that you can match it up with how your guts feeling. That's why I can tell you that Trump is leading, but not that he is going to win. The form gives us an indication of what is going to happen in the future. Then yes, those polling areas are going to most likely go his way, meaning his wing gets bigger. But but but when two things are an option, two things could happen quick break back with.
More no sooks, no left kings.
I think Matt Canavan's coming into the man Cave and I'm looking forward to this. Analyst Nielsen from the States as well, thank you very much for watching. Christian McSweeney joining us right now, I believe from Brisbane. I think she's said there she is, Oh sorry, Melbourne all right, just just just betterfor just as music.
It would be better in Bristo.
But no other than Matt Canavan here in the man Cave. I'd let him take over any time he wants. And what about this, He could have met the king today, but no family comes. First world done, mate, So I know I'm giving her what I want with the Lydia Thorpe thing. But it's just I wanted to talk about it from that UK perspective, right, So their breakfast news was,
you know, as if this one giant moment. Instead we know that this one off person's se what they always say, forty five seconds, no one reacts, there's not thousands of people outside.
Yeah.
Look, it's frustrating obviously that our so called I suppose international reputation is tarnished from this. But look, the silver lining is that your average Australian watching that and viewing that has not increased their love or warmth for the Republican movement. I mean, she's a shocking advocate for that side of thing, and it basically now seems to be a movement that's reduced down to people who wear red bandannas. You'd like to interrupt her official events, form a soccer player,
that's about it. Now you fit them in a car. So look, I look, these people are no good advocates for themselves. I don't like giving her air time, but it's a bad time. I suppose as a member of the Senate, now what action should be taken. It's about time there's some preemptive suspensions for people like her. I mean, why is she there? It's not an official we can't kick her out of the Senate, but she's been elected.
But why is she at these events? She's have a proven record of interrupting them, of not abiding by the rules, So wan to just ban it from those sort of things.
But also if it's pretty obvious, I mean literally, we know that there was two fingers behind her back when she gave the oath. Secondly, we know that this is her practical statement, including you know, screw the system.
I completely agree, but we all know it'll be hair on fire. But that doesn't mean you don't try it. Yeah, well, I don't push, but.
I probably would have gone today if my mum could have been a gone she wanted to go. My mom could have gone. If Lydia was kicked out, mom could have gone.
And I reckon your mums, Lydia, I know who my money's on here. All right, Christy, let's talk about the protests that have been happening in and around some of the ridiculous stuff right around the hamas leader. And there's a little trick that's being played, and let's talk about this here, which is that there are groups who would not be able to get away with saying certain things in certain places, but because they do it on the steps of religious places, it is something that looks like
religious speech, not political speech. And I know we could spend two hours talking about at times the intersection between the two, but we know some of the garbage that has been said on the steps.
I think this one is in La Kember. You've heard greater.
Details from all of the other hosts, but I just wanted to get Christie's thoughts. Here we go, he warrious step amongst these men, one with these people in defense of his lip.
Oh God, I've heard that.
Enough, Okay, enough, You've just got a taste of the obvious here, Christy.
How does Australia react here?
Because here's the reality, right, there are people who come in and out of the country who give the speeches, and there are people that are born here, right, and there's an awful lot of people who are born here.
Who are the ones taking up the microphone?
Certainly there is, and we have said it repeatedly on this network that international foreign conflicts have no place in the amazing multicultural society that is successful Australia. However, should international foreign conflicts be imported. I think there's a place to classify them as hate speech.
We have to look seriously at that.
What do these laws mean?
And I know that there are always nuances in these such things, but certainly I think, you know, when it impedes people's freedom to live in a harmonious, multicultural society under Australian laws and Australian values, which are multicultural values that we all share, I think we really have to.
Look at that.
But also, Matt other speakers that turn around, So in the future, is Islam the respont to reap on their own website read about us what their plan is? Right, and it ain't the country that we live in right now? How do we negotiate these moments?
Well, I think what we need to do is take much more pride in our own country. I mean that's number one. Yeah, you could try and ban these groups those things, but you can't. You can't completely suppress an idea. And the best antidote too, this is to return to a world where we're not ashamed of promoting how great this country is. We teach that to our children, we
teach that in all of our schools. Bring back you know, having a national anthem and the flag and all schools, and so you counter these people spreading hate and we win that battle. We win that battle ideas. That's how it's one.
Now.
I'm pretty sure at the time, you know, maybe been on opposite sides of the euthanasia that go gentle or right to die, all of the different ways these things get spoken of. There's a story that I'm going to imagine today would be the type of thing that people worried about when this conversation was taking place. Now I stand by my support of it and the system being in place. I know a beautiful family that is that their family has gone through this process, right a family member.
But I want to talk about a person called Cyril Profile today in the Australian newspaper suggesting that there is no life, there is no dignity. I'm very sick now and it won't last long. I've started the process. You have to be passed by two doctors. What he is talking about, apart from anything else, is the problems in and around age care and his ability to be okay at home, his ability to access a system. Now, obviously we have not got to the moment where we're going
to be dialing down. And I want to frighten people watching us right now where we're going to be running down age care in order to run up euthanasia. But this is the type of stuff you were you would have pointed to as a consul.
Look, I don't want to use it as a vehicle for that debate, because this is an incredibly sad personal situation for Cyril and his loved ones. But this this is more an age care story for me, right, I mean he's he's effectively saying, if I can take what he said in this article is true that he would want to be wanting to continue his life, but for not being able to get proper care. Yeah, that's an indictment on our age care system, not the laws of
governing euthanasia. And look, you know this is a terrible individual case, but it is a reflection of the fact that waiting lists for age care places, these serious cases like Cyril's have more than doubled in the past fifteen months, and a big part of that is because the governor has put all this red tape and regulation in our age care sector, making a lot more costly and there for a lot fewer places available for people in high needs like Ceril, but also Christie.
We all know that sort of even in business, right, one arm doesn't speak to the other. This department doesn't speak to that. Okay, cool, Yet there's a federal budget every year, there's public announcements about immigration, about population. We know every four years. This is thing called a census. It's not like we don't know when there's going to be greater demand. We have absolutely failed when people like Cyril are in the scenario that Cyril is in.
Certainly, the Productivity Commission into Generational Report has been warning us for decades of the explosion of the aging population the needs of age care, and successive governments have failed to budget for that. But we must remember the Albanesi government during the election. Camp I went to the election promising a raft of things for age care which have now turned out to be in the never never one was the on site nurses twenty four hours in every facility.
The other one was right down to a food deal with Maggie Beer. So they were very concerned to be explicit about what food they would team up with and what famous celebrity chef. But we've now said right from the beginning, when people are on a waiting list to get what's called an ACAT assessment, which is the Age Care Assessment team, and they come and assess you for what package you are eligible for the white list to even get your assessment, let alone to get a care
package once you've been approved. Like this, poor gentleman, And congratulations to Rebecca Sharky for highlighting that it starts at the beginning. People cannot even get assessed. There are not enough staff in those age care assessment teams, particularly in regional It is a gigantic problem that the government has put their head in the sand. If you want to talk about AGEK work for force.
Start with that.
Christ You give me one word answer here. Who was the bigger winner in PR terms? Trump or McDonald's when Trump went to McDonald's Because everyone so you said McDonald's a lot in the past twenty four hours.
I think McDonald's yes, breakthrough.
Yeah so do I I've been craving a big back all day.
My crap on the way back.
Double at the moment was great.
By the way, I was just thinking, if you had gone to the King today, it may would have been two senators. You would have been blowing up about the climate change stuff. She's blowing up about the That's right.
I would have been interjecting on the Kings in your blandercy tight.
Downstairs. What are you in for? All right?
Thank you about all the best and all the best of the family as you make the way through year twelve, big exams. All right, thank you, mate, appreciate it. Right, quick break back with the more Alise Nielsen in the United States. Yeah, we'll talk about Trump macas polling, what she's feeling. And she is in a swing state and a swingy bit of a swing state tonight.
So let's talk about swinging with analyse more than a set.
Let us talk to the wonderful Annalyse Nielsen, who is yet again out on the road ahead of the American election a couple of weeks ago. And she is right in the heart of a very swingy bit of a very swingy state. I'm not going to pretend to pronounce Sheboygan?
Is it? Where are you today?
Sheboygan?
Sheboygan?
All right, I'm going to do my Wisconsin ACXI. I'll offend everyone, but yees call the Miami of Wisconsin. We're right on the lake.
So give me so give me the idea about about Wisconsin, and this is a place that has that when Obama Trump Biden, it has bounced around a bit. What is the sense of who you've been meeting in and around the streets or the data that you've been trying to follow about that part of the blue wall.
Look, they lost Wisconsin for Hillary Clinton because she didn't bother to come and she took it for granted. And no one's ever going to take Wisconsin for granted again. They're not taking it for granted this time. But we were here yesterday. We've only been here for a day, but we were out talking to voters. And it's the same thing we've been getting in the other swing states where people just aren't happy with the choices that they
have this election. So when we're being told all this analysis around undecided voters, what I get the sense of when you actually talk to people face to face, because I know, going out and just doing a bunch of interviews in a row, it's not as scientific as a poll. But what you do get is that sense of what people are really thinking. You can read the body language, you can read the pauses people have made up their mind.
They're not happy with it. And they're leaving it to the last minute because they really just don't like the idea of what they're doing. And so this is where I get the sense that things are heading and also that there has been We've seen a lot of people who should be traditionally very supportive of Kamla haha, it's not enthusiastic about it. So we met a young woman of color yesterday who is not going to vote at
all because she hated Trump. She doesn't think Kamala Harris's genuine person, and so she was going to write herself in. But we hear that a lot, and the polls show how tight it is. I think that is absolutely going to be true. This is going to come down to the wire.
I would also imagine that the phenomena that people need to understand, and anyone who lives in a marginal seat in Australia would know, Oh yeah, they turn up a lot. No no, no, every ad, every TV show, every radio station, and every time you go online. They must be up to the end of it just going please shut up, like there's no where you're not trying to win me over. And that has sort of its own effect, doesn't it.
It does and often in a good way. People in swing states, we find are often very well across the policies because they know that they have an important vote. They know that they're going to be influential in this election, so they do take it seriously. And I think especially when we talk about Americans having non compulsory voting, there's often this assumption that, oh, they don't take it seriously, because sometimes they set it out. Most often they will
do that in an intellectual way. They'll say, I don't like the options. I'm therefore exercising my right to not pick one because I have looked at these options and I do not like them. Of course, there is a segment of the population that just says, like ad none into politics, don't care. But in swing states, you don't really get the chance to do that. You are so you have people knocking on your doors, every billboard, You're right, every ad break.
It is ad nauseum.
And it's one of the reasons they have good local news markets is because these local news outlets get all this money for campaign funding. So it's a kind of cyclical thing for you.
I was going to say, they've got the best and the newest of gear because they make hundreds of millions of dollars out of all the ads that they just run every two and four years. All right, last one here, and again, I'm not going to get into the game of who's winning and who's up and who you Again, I explained why anyone following data has no idea which way it's actually pointing right now. But I did want to ask you about this about which is closing arguments.
Joy is gone, vibes is gone, It's back to you know, the female version of dark Brandon.
He's the worst of all time.
And Trump, who literally is facing presidency or jail, seems to have a wider smile than Whyaquin Phoenix did in either of the Joker movies.
And I heard you what you were saying before about people criticizing Trump for having a stunt at McDonald's. Of course it was a stunt. You think that they'd send a gayan who's had two assassination attempts to odd normal McDonald's to work the drive? What are we talking about? But no, I think there is just kind of this trauma from twenty sixteen, and I think there is a sense of people thinking, geez, there's no way Trump's got this.
But I'm going to get too excited now because what if we're wrong, because that was really traumatic last time. But there is just a total sense that Kamala Harris is going on the attack. This is no more just the campaign of joy, and that Donald Trump is looking very relaxed and kind of tired a little board of the campaign in some events. I mean when he had that town hall and listened to music for half an hour, I think that was just kind of like, I've been
doing this forever. I've got this, and he has been doing it so much longer than Kamala Harris. She only came in a couple of months ago to this campaign. So I think that's all playing into just the kind of optics of the last few weeks.
Well, as I just said, right like, if you're a betting person, one person the future is presidency or prison, they look, you know, they.
Look more no drama Obama than Obama.
Remember Obama's running around telling black men, you know, you must vote all the rest and a least let's do it longer next week than obviously in person when we are in the United States, all the best Mane and Liss Nielsen there.
In the United States. Cheese rock and roll.
All right, We will see you again tomorrow night for another edition to Paul Murray Live Tunna