Paul Murray Live | 20 April

lot of people that have been drowning. It's been a little bit warm. People need to settle down and be careful around water, especially people who for some reason still do the rock fishing. I'm going to explain that in a second Sunday Night, definitely on a public holiday. Hardcore politics to night of course, the state of the Race, Cos Samaras with the numbers, Michael Kroger with the opinion on it all. And this time next week I'm going to be living a dream because I am going to

be in beautiful Cowghoolie in Western Australia. If you would like to join us in the room. And I know that there's the nullable muster up the road. But that's okay, do this said, and I turned around, come back, say ourtown at skynews dot com dot AU. Next Sunday night will be in Cowgooley in mighty Western Australia. Let's fill the room ourtown at skynews dot com dot A. You now, as I say, before I get to the politics, and obviously that's the main focus, particularly on a Sunday night.

There have been half a dozen people who have died in the waters off New South Wales this easter. Now they claim it's because the weather is ever so slightly warmer, so people are going back and they're going to places that are frankly unpatrolled. There's not as many life savers. Some of them are even shut down because of course it's no longer the official swimming season. But also there are too many people and I mean too many people

who are going rock fishing. Now, if that's how you get your kicks, if you don't have the safety vest, if you don't have the equipment, because inevitably, what Mother Nature will do is produce a wave out of nowhere that could knock you off your feet. Apart from the fact that you could end up banging your head and then like some people washing into the water, you could just get washed into the water with very little ability to fight back. This is a matter of life and

death in Australia. We love our water, but we are at times not prepared for it. Here's the Life Savers today on TV after a pretty bad weekend, which of course still has another day to go day away from the rocks at the edges. Rivers can also be dangerous.

but it's just a warning to everyone. As relaxed as we are, we can't be relaxed about the reality that humans and water sometimes it doesn't mix.

And in an election when apparently there are a huge number of undecideds, does that mean they will all rush vote early to get it done. Do they wait till the end? Do the hyperpartisans make the most of these few extra days regardless of whether it's a public holiday or not. The services are going to be open Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, so we'll all be keeping a very close eye on what's happening. But voting starts in the

twenty twenty five election in just two days' time. This week we'll also have another debate that one is of course going to be over on Channel nine on the same day that voting does begin. Now, today, the Prime Minister lived up to his each way albo tag that we have given him, which is he says that Peter Dutton is injecting too much machismo, he's too matcho, he's too blokey. He said this today while going onto the footy show in Rugby League Territory and passing the football.

Imagine if Tony Abbott had done this toxic mathculinity. But because it's albo, oh, it's just him being a good bloke right. Hence why we say each way albo. It applies in a campaign as much as it does in governance. Now, of course, play are spending when it comes to this government, but thankfully they've held off for the past couple of days. But Mark Knight, the excellent cartoonist for The Herald's Sun, well, he decided to link the excessive spending and excessive promises

of Anthony Aberne. Is he with the holiday? It's Easter time and I hope the Easter Bunny is paid you all visit this weekend. Of course, there is another bunny traveling around the country at the moment.

hundred million dollar, one hundred and fifty million dollar, one billion dollar, two hundred and forty five million dollars, six million dollars, three million dollars, ten billion dollars.

attended by twenty thousand people. What a huge number of people that were there and a perfect sign again of his focus when it comes to wider community is the Christian Maronite community, I believe is the one behind that one. He went to the Easter show, as did the Prime Minister, which means, oh, the politicians can work out who was cheering and who was booing and what's the metaphor if they're standing in front of this one or that one,

will they walk past a write you know? How it works anyway, as for an a fficial Easter message, and again happy Easter to everyone who marks the occasion for its religious significance. This is what the alternative Prime Minister had to say in his Easter message today.

way of the Prime Minister, but of course not. The media is there to get him re elected, not to hold him to account. We passed the halfway point in the campaign. The polls are increasingly positive for Labor. That's positive for the coalition. You must confident now if you're going.

all over again. So here are the questions of the alternative prime minister. It's but the difference.

land is more important than a near religious law. We fully accept people to love who they want to love, marry who they want to marry, all the normal stuff, right. We respect in fact revere women in this country, and the men who are decent would die for the women in their lives, not cause them trouble, and anyone who does is a low life. But of course any conversation about immigration, they try to turn it into some sort

of a conversation about race. No, no, no, it's about the reality that if so many people can't afford a house, if so many people can't find a place to live, why would you tip another million people on on top of that, extending every queue and every state ambulance Ramping is a problem, meaning when you call triple o they may or may not turn up, and even if you do get in the back of an ambulance, you're not

going to get into the hospital. Ycus is not enough beds. No, no, let's tip another midion in do you like how they deliberately and intention They know that, but they deliberately and intentionally try to link the word immigration to race, because of course that is the way that the modern left likes to talk about things, like in the United States, they don't talk about the difference between legal and illegal immigration.

Ten million people crossed into the country over its borders through the southern border, more likely than coming down from Canada. The American government wants to get rid of the people who came in illegally. But no, no, no, they're racist because they're all migrants. Know there is an absolute difference, And anyone who knows people that have come to the country know the people who waited, filled out the forms, did the homework and pass the tests think very poorly

of those who come in illegally. So it is a complicated issue, but it is not that difficult to understand why Australians want a pause in more people being added to every version of the queue that exists in Australia. But my phone went kaboom on Thursday night when the host from the ABC well yet again showed their political colors. Now Here is a scenario where Clara, now the Housing Minister, was well doing what she normally does, which is carrying on like a two bob watch, trying to show that

she's the future of the Labor Party. Look at her, she's a girl boss. Here she is whacking the Libs around the face. Although significantly higher. That's sorry, they were thirty thousand.

A massive boost for the Labor Party and a big problem for the coalition. In a second, it's dumb and dumber.

are more Labor seats than there are Liberal seats. But what about the margins by which each party is attacking or defending. That's when this preference deal starts to absolutely work in favor of the Labor Party. Let me explain. These are the seats of the Labor Party is currently holding under two percent, being along Gilmore Means his Lions and Lingiari the United Australia Party, which of course now

is the Trumpet Patriots. It got more than two percent in each and every one of those seats, meaning that if those were immediately sent back towards the Libs, it could be the difference between Labour holding onto a seat or losing a seat. In the seats of four percent, there essentially is no major change, but in Robertson, Patterson, Boothby and Chisholm up to almost four percent, particularly in

Patterson would matter. But essentially it is really those first few seats that end up being the main areas that the Labour Party would become nervous about. Well, guess what, there's actually a larger number of seats that are held by the Liberal and National Party under the two percent margin. So by going against the sitting MP in Deacon Sturt, More, Canning, not necessarily Bass Casey and Dixon, which of course is

Peter Dutton's seat, all of those suddenly could become vulnerable. Now, if people do follow the how to vote card, then you are talking about a significant number that is going to be moving against the sitting MP, which numerically is going to be more relevant in the wafer thin margins held by the Liberal Party than the waf of thin margins held by the Labor Party. In fact, if you have a look at the four percent margins Banks, Longman, BONNERI like Ar't Hughes and Flynn, but particularly in Flynn

and Banks and Longman and Hughes. Now that was where Craig Kelly was running as the United Australian Party leader the last election. All of those again could have significant impacts on the Liberal Party's ability to defend a seat. So put simply, by putting everyone last, it's going to advantage the Labor Party because they have fewer seats in the margins where the Trumpeter Patriots vote could be decisive.

If people follow those how to vote cards, the Trumpeter Patriots' preferences could hurt up to seven Labor MPs, but could hurt up to seventeen Liberal and National Party MPs. Now by putting everyone last, it means that he is preferencing the Teals before Labor and before Liberal in many different seats. Of course, the Teals are running against Liberals would help for Teal candidates who'd like to defeat a Liberal candidate, but in fairness, it could hurt the sitting six Teal candidates.

What I find odd about this is not it's a bug of the whole system. It's that very obviously they know their numbers, very obviously, they know their margins, so very obviously they know which of the two political sides it was going to hurt. Now, this is the same essential messaging that in the twenty nineteen campaign went full bore against Bill Shorten Phil Bore. So it's coming from

the right. So for it to hurt the Liberal and National Party either in the two headed contest when it comes to Liberal labor, or to hurt when it comes to the Teals trying to take over from a lib. It is essentially going to be a very significant issue here because preference discipline with people who vote one Nation or vote Trumpeter Patriots or vote Libertarian, is going to be the difference between a close election or one hell

of a blowout. Remember this is what the leader of the Trumpeter Patriots said on Saturday after the preference decision had been made. So very obviously you would suggest that she is coming from the right of Australian politics.

is the Teal candidate who is going to get the preferences from Trumpeter Patrients in Bradfield.

result in much more labor MPs. It could result in teals replacing liberals and would that not take the country further away from the stated goals of the Trumpeter patriots? Or am I missing something? You got my number? You can text me if you want, or we'll come on the show and talk about it. I'm not shilling for the Liberal Party here. It's just this is a terrible government. This is a terrible government that deserves to be pushed right to the edge, if not over it. These preferences

could well save them. I don't get it. As for the election, is it closer than we think? Well, who do you trust if you trust the book is The answer is no, hell no. In fact, because the latest odds sports bet Liberals at four dollars thirty the Labor Party of twenty two lad Broke's better dollar twenty tab at a dollar twenty blowouts basically and by the way I think in sports bet it's basically the same money between a majority or a minority right now for Labor.

So things in terms of the bookies absolutely going Labour's way tonight theatest news pole has dropped. It is exactly the same even including the primary votes than last week, which either means the coalition has steadied the bleeding. But if nothing else, obviously it's in a world of paine at fifty two forty eight. And I want to ask our stats guys tonight, Okay, if it's fifty two to forty eight, why are we looking at other poles telling us that the Labour Party could still lose half a

dozen seats. Surely if they're nationally above, they should be above everywhere else. Of course, the answer is swings and all the rest of it. But how look at that primary vote? Remember the last election one nation got five percent of the vote. It's now up to seven percent. It's consistent in all the polls that they are higher than they were last time. That's why Pauline Hanson, being very aggressive, very anti Albanezy, is telling everyone preference the

Libs before you get to Labor. I'm saying you put the Liberal Party up there at number two. Why because that's the only way to defeat the Labor Party. Once you send your vote out across fifteen different candidates, there's a chance statistically that you don't end up changing the seat. You just end up sending your vote on a very long walk. However, this is the stuff that's going to really start to hurt Liberal supporters. But stick with me.

I'll give you some hope. In a second all right, cost of living, Labour's winning that one thirty one twenty eight, everyone else neither undecided, both equally tax. Labor is leading the coalition thirty three to twenty five on the question of would be better at handling lowering taxes helping Australiers by their first House twenty nine to twenty four, relatively even, but still Labor in front. In health, it won't surprise you that it's forty two twenty two as for the

overall economy. Now again I don't understand how one people say. They say one thing about tax, they say another thing about cost of living. But when it comes to the overall economy, Coalition leading Labor thirty four to twenty nine, and on defense thirty five to twenty three in favor of the coalition. Meantime, according to the Yuga pole that dropped this weekend, and again we're all about the data, We're all about the grains of sand on the beach.

This is how nothing will be a surprise when voting starts on Tuesday. Labor is apparently in an eighteen month high in their primary vote. Why because they say it is equal. Now the Coalition, which got close to forty in this poll is now down to thirty three. The Labour Party is basically where they were at the last

election at thirty three. Paul In Hansen still at seven. Remember, if you're going to devote one nation or anything else on the right of center, then clearly you should prioritize the government that you want after the candidate that you want. Otherwise Labour sticks around two party preferred fifty three forty seven according to you gov. Also Redbridge now you can see what you're going to see here is four different lines.

The most recent is the most recent poll, the one below that is the week before that, the week before that, and then where we started things about four and a bit weeks ago. You can see for Labor it's got better as the four weeks have gone. For Coalition it has got worse over the past four weeks. But and I said there was a raise of hope. Let's talk

about cost of living. Because cost of living, which has been the number one election issue and has been for the past how many years we're banned on about it? How many night? It's why because it's where Australians are. The ABC is starting to notice this because you know that vote compass thing which basically put in the information

that tells you you're going to vote green. Well, it is showing that the most important issue is cost of living, followed by economy and finance, government operations, then climate change, housing, healthcare, immigration, gender equality which is a less than one percent issue, or even retirement benefits and social services according to their compass. Why does this matter because cost of living, yes, slightly leaning in favor of the government. In the news polet

in the Freshwater pole. It is slightly leaning in favor of the coalition. This means the coalition's messaging should be one thing and one thing only every day between now and the election. Which is the shopping list of things that will happen if you vote for the Liberal Party. Number one twelve hundred dollars, automatic tax return, Number two twenty five cents, harving of the petrol tax. Number three, instant asset right off for businesses up to thirty thousand dollars.

Number four put them in whatever order they want. Tax deductibility for people that are paying off their first home. There are people there who are still soft and still able to move. But the pole that did worry me the most today in terms of if we're going to keep the government or get rid of them, was this detailed run through. In the red Bridge polling, the question was what would you say the biggest hesitations or concerns

for only for labor or Anthony Abernesi. The dark red is the most recent pole, the pink is the one before that. So let's go off the most recent numbers forty seven percent. And remember these are all out of one hundred. They don't all add up to one hundred. Lack of action on cost of living seat, that's the opportunity for the Libs. The shopping list of what is available, ram at home with every ad you've got for the next little while. Now that's forty seven percent. Management of

the economy, lack of progress in their first term. There links to the union movement and just twenty four percent of people saying it's Anthony Albanese's personality as leader. Now these are apparently people in swing seats, so again it's not about the hard cores that are in hardcore Red or hardcore Blue. This is in the question Mark territory. The problem for the LID in this polling up by

ten points. Peter Dutton's personality as leader is the biggest hesitation for people as to why they wouldn't vote coalition or for Peter Dutton as the leader of the coalition forty five percent. Our lack of policy detail. Did they leave it too late to tell us what they were planning to do? The coalition's too close to Trump basically because we would follow the examples being set by Trump thirty four percent. The performance of the Morrison government thirty

two percent. Their plan for nuclear power in fact, more people saying the reason not devote liberal is because of the last government, not the plans of a future government. We'll talk about that with Michael Kroger in a moment or to time. Lots to unveil, lots to pull apart with them, and the way that we like to do it each and every Sunday night is to get right into the detail, and we like to call it none

other than the State of the Race. We'll take a quick break, we'll be back with them as we get into the data, into the detail, and I really do want to have a conversation about those polls that are turning around and telling us about what's going to hold people back Tomorrow and night on the show, we're going to go deep into the muck that is social media. But enough for me. Let's get to the detail. Thoughts ports going ONews dot com dot Are you stay of

the race this Sunday night here on Pulmurray Life. Thanks for watching, Thank you so much for watching. Let's get into it now. Let's go hardcore, especially on a Sunday night. Happy Easter to Costam Marius from the Red Bridge Organization and none of them, Michael Kraeger thank you, sir, Happy East to you the liberal legend out of Victoria. Lots to get to, including an awful lot of data to play with tonight, and I will get into this preference stuff because it is going to matter. We're down to

fractions of fractions and votes start on Tuesday. All right, let's get to this here, because what if anything is interesting you in all of the data that we're around at the moment, is anything moving about and in what direction?

to them. And you know, we could talk about, you know, with the impact that that parton might have in that space, but it's going to be pretty tough for Peter Dutton and his team to get anywhere near close to be able to negotiate with that cross bench. It's looking pretty grim.

was five to fourteen percent. So there are number of seats eight nine, ten percent and Scullon was fourteen percent if you've got Holt, Fraser, Gorton, Carewell, Scullon. So what does that mean. It means that the swing against labor was very heavily in its own safe seats. So given that Labor have run a very traditional campaign, which is the usual in medicares under attack again, it's going to be sold, bashed, you know, slashed and burned, et cetera,

as the usual campaign of lies. That appeals very much to Labour's base. So I wonder whether Labour's vote, say in Victoria and maybe nationally, is returning to the Labor Party in its safe seats and not so much in the marke Tools and that's where Peter Dutton would be very much alive. The second thing I'll put to cause though, is a month ago, because you had the Coalition four percent in front in two party preferred terms and you've

got the nine behind. So do you think there's been a six and a half percent swing two party preferred against the Coalition in the last month, Because that's a man's number.

the minor parties. We've been talking about this now for a few weeks it is a phenomenon that we see across the country, whether it's it's state elections in West Australia, whether it's in Queensland, whether it's in other states as well. You know where would be by election was a really good example of that. The Ages now lose a stack of votes to minor parties, but the other major party

doesn't pick it all up. So that's fundamentally the challenge here, and we're looking at a very polarized electric you're either plant you're batting for the blue team or you're batting for the red team. If you're upset with one or the other, you don't go on swap. And that's what's going on here.

recent and the one before has exploded. I mean it has gone straight through the roof in some of these seats. Is that what determines that two party preferred conversation, because clearly if the Greens are up, the preferences are up. Is that the X factor in these twenty seats that according to this the Greens they're up a very significant amount.

comes to politics and voting. So it's gen Z that's inflicting a lot of damage on the coalition then, but also millennials leaving the coalition and going to minor parties as well.

previous ones. So which is is there a myth out there that young blokes are conservative and therefore there's going to be some sort of eruction here or it is just a sub section of a sub section here.

whole group. But that's absolutely the case. They still have young men that are far more reactionary and supportive of right wing populist leaders around the world than women in the same age categories.

Labour's thirty four, Greens twelve put it together at forty seven. Let's imagine there was one hundred percent preference discipline, there won't be with one nation supporters of the Liberal National that's forty one. So again, Michael, this is what's got to be the concern here, which is especially the decision of trumpet patriots to take the bug of them all. But there are more Liberals that are in tighter fights

than Labor MPs. Now it's not suggesting that the Labor Party is going to go and take a whole bunch of Liberal seats, but it is a major decision, and I've got to say, I'm not sure why the trumpet Patriots, which is obviously coming from the right, is going to help facilitate the statistical removal of more people closer to what they believe, rather than in places like Bradfield where they're going to preference the Teal first, that's number two on the ballot.

don't know? I mean, is a trumpet of Patriots voter likely to want a preference second a teal or labor who, as you've as you've poured out, vehemently opposed the Trump administration. They to test the Trump administration. So this will bewilder some of his own supporters, but quite frankly, it won't be the first time Parmer supporters have been bewildered.

different people, It's still Team Yellow. Okay. Tell me about the Trumpet Patriots vote, particularly in those twenty marginals.

follow the head of Oakard absolutely to the number. The other fifty percent don't, but when it comes to minor parties they will follow it based on their own beliefs. So I still think that where they are staffing those polling places, and that's the other critical factor here, is he going to staff the polling boops where they're staffing them, I think that will still preference very strongly to the coalition because the types of people that are voting for

Partner's Operation are coming off the coalition. They're going to go back at about sixty to seventy percent. But again that's that thirty percent he's not getting that the colleges are not getting back and that's where it hurts them.

But again those sorts of factors in those seats, it's going to be fascinating because, as I say, in a sitting teal Monique Ryan last right in a potential Teal seat like A one, and much higher in Bradfield number two. So we'll all see where it lands. But then this

brings us to the other preference question, which is the Greens. Now, as I noticed in this if the Greens have been surging in the past couple of weeks, which is that data inside of Redbridge, then their preferences matter why because they get the discipline when it comes to Labor, don't you love, Michael, how the media works. The Labor Party came out and has preferenced them, not fourth, not sixth, not seventh, not eventually before they've done it. Number two.

They're basically the full hand pass. The full pass has been made to the Greens. The controversy nothing, yeap.

who has preferenced the Greens second. That will not help by the way, Josh Burns in the seat of Macnamara in Victoria, because any Jewish voter who was even thinking about voting for Verns would look at Mark Drafts and think what the Jewish Attorney generals is preferencing the Greens second in his own seat. So that won't help them.

But if preferencing the Green's going to help the Labor Party nationally, know, I mean, people you talk about the vote surging, it seems to be around twelve percent, which is what it's been for in the last election as well. I mean, remember this, a lot of young people are so appalled by the Greens and they're sort of anti Semitism that that they've fueled through the behavior of some of their MPs like Jennifer Leong, etc. There's a lot of young people that don't want to be associated with

a party that many people believe these days have racist undertones. So, you know, younger people with gen Z and millennials and others who think it's trending to support the Greens. A lot of those people that I've speaked were having second thoughts because they don't like this whole sort of pro Palestinian bent by the Greens, which the undercurrent of which many people believe is you know, has fueled a lot of social division in this country by Bant and others

supporting the demonstrations being so critical of Israel Netanyahu. They seem to take every way, you know, every opportunity to criticize Israel. So I don't think the Greens of giving preferences getting preferences from labor is going to go well amongst a lot of moderate labor voters.

to Cawgooley. We're plugging it hard because we want to fill the joint with as many people as possible. We know it's not a town of amnion people, okay, so we know we're not going to get the mega crowds that we've had in all other places, but we want as many people there as possible. Okay. So if you can get to Cawgooley in Western Australia next week, ourtown, it's Goenies dot com. That are you. If you're watching, you know someone there, give them a call. Many times

we go and do our town. Somebody says, I've been a fan. I watch you every night, but I didn't know you were coming. Well, come on, here's the chance. Ourtown at skydews dot com dot Au. Back to Coross Samaras from Redbridge and of course a legend around these parts are on sky Newson. Of course some Liberal Party in Victoria and none other than Michael Kroger. So Michael,

another debate this one Tuesday. It does happen first day of voting, but it is still a place where a lot of people certainly are think news of wils I don't know about Victoria school holidays. It's still one of

these gray weeks, one of the wobble weeks. And I've got a feeling that I, judging by the journalism of Channel nine sixty minutes all the way through to the way they do their questions each and every night, they're going to have one objective and one objective only, and that is to go for the kill on Peter Dutton. That said, what do you think of the third debate?

debate's very important. There's a couple of other debates during the week as well. Keith Wallahan's debating the men before Mensies, So yeah, there's a health debate on Wednesday with Anne Rust and so all these debates are very important. There's absolutely no doubt about it. Can I just go back to a point I was making before. I've just seen something on the Australian website. This guy Jason Clare right, the Minister for Education, who's the member for Blaxland in

New South Wales. He's he's put the Greens second, it's crazy on his how to vote card, and the Greens candidate the word extreme probably doesn't define him properly. He's on the record of saying Zionism is Nazism. He thinks Jews that believe in the homeland of nazis really mister Claire, you've put this Blake second on your had to vote card. That's sick, Jason, that is sick. You shouldn't be doing that.

And this is where ALBANIZI right, this is the danger of this Blake right, he's running a mark, he's desperate to win, and he's done a deal with these extremists to get him back into government. You know, as rich I said, whatever it takes, whatever it takes, that was his famous book title, and that's what Albanese is doing. In Anthony Alberze is Prime ministers country. Shame on you.

is just across everyone. So you've got the lovers and the haters in there. Okay. So the number one reason why someone would be hesitant about voting for Labor or Anthony Abernezi not enough action on cost of living, followed by the management of the economy For the Libs number one issue Peter Dutton's personality as leader and a lack of policy detail. What do those polls tell you about what you hear from voters when you ask them, so, what do you think you know?

our suburban regional voters who have been financially struggling. I've endured a pandemic, You've enjoyed twelve interest rate rises, You're barely keeping your head above water, and suddenly the global economy is going in all sorts of places you never imagined. You're least likely to vote and incumber down.

can be hang their had on. What we know for our research over the last couple of weeks, though, is that they are bringing this up the global situation on a regular.

remember Election night twenty nineteen. We all turned up to whatever studio we were on, ready to ordain prime to Bill Shorten, well lo and behold, well we all shocked. And I'll tell you there's one thing I know about Saturday Week. There's one thing that on Saturday Night you'll be able to quote me when you say to people, I didn't expect that, because that's what's going to happen in a lot of these seats on Saturday Week. You're going to look at them and think, my god, I never saw that coming.

it Monday on next week. Thank you so much. Of a great time and happy is it to you both? All right, that's our show for tonight. Stand by for the Royal Report.