Paul Murray Live | 2 March

right into the detail. We count the grains of sand on the beach and have any move in which direction. We'll get to that in a moment or two time. I'll tell you what the thinking was behind Donald Trump and the way that things went down with Zelenski. We're going to talk to something in the United States, just in case you are not quite across why Trump has the worldview that he does and the people who support

that particular worldview. And please the Prime minister trying to tell us that he's saving on cost of living because beer taxes won't go up for the next two years. They've gone a plenty in the past three years. Sixty five set of a bottle of Bundy rum is tax so feel free not to celebrate this particular one. The story that's going to be the dominant one in Australia outside of politics this week is going to be the cyclone that is going to be making its way to

North Queensland. Now, this is the tropical cyclone Alfred, and the latest that we can see when it comes to the radar is that it is going to be making its way. Probably major effects are going to be felt in and around Thursday at its worst, but who knows, there's plenty of that happens between now and then. To put this into some perspective about how many people are going to be effected by all of the effects of a tropical cyclone, the Turmble Times puts it at four million,

basically all Queenslanders who live anywhere near the coast. Here's the latest from our mates over It's Gone News weather.

a reset. Each and every week. We might just talk about the polls. We'll talk about the tactics. We'll talk about what they are they aren't doing, and what we might be hearing behind the scenes. Now, as we know, the Prime Minister finds a way to announce half a billion dollars a day. He's spending is now in the tens of billions of dollars for some reason, the press gallery I never asked the Liberal Party where the money is going to come from. The question should be being

asked to the Prime Minister as well. But we all know that the benefit of the doubt for the establishment media is to keep the establishment firmly in place.

the current system but improving it. For the Opposition, they chose national defense as their focus today, with a plan to spend billions of dollars on more planes that theoretically would be able to go and find out what Chinese warships are doing. But of course it's not as exciting for the Prime Minister because he's got to stand in front of the brand that Bob Hawk launched, because you know, he's the new Hawky.

dollars extra on your home loan. But don't know, let's all talk about medicare as if that is the single biggest concern for Australians. It is about changing the subject one from where the government is about to get its backside handed to it to the one that they think they're able to make this election about. It is, of course not up to the government what the election is about. It's you, and it's also up to the Opposition to pull the subject back to where the majority of Australians are.

I repeat every time the Prime Minister talks about medicare you should remember that the federal opposition has promised to not just match eight point five billion dollars, but are going to spend nine billion dollars. If you doubt, you can feel free to go to the Liberal Party website. You can read the announcement yourself. It is there, I promise it is there. Of all the times for it not to work. But you get my point. That is

the plan, that is the promise. Remember, legislation was passed back in the Morrison government about defending and making sure Medicare was in place, So all of this pretending that Medicare is under threat is literally made up. It is an attempt to change the subject. And most of the media will follow on. I'll get to the way the media treated the excise on alcohol discussion in a moment

or two time. But Jim Charmers is one who was, of course trying to make the most of the talking points because his hope would be that the Albanezi government goes from a majority to a minority and then he would humably at some point take the advice of people like nasty Nicky Sava and become the Prime Minister in the next three years. So he sings off the song sheet that wheneveryone asked a question, somehow make it about Peter Dutton and Mediicare.

about what is working and what is not. Now, after a full week of the opposition not getting out there aggressively enough to say we're not just matching with are doing better, there has been a little change in the

priority of Australians when it comes to this upcoming election. Now, the cost of living is still the absolute number one issue at eighty two percent, but you can see that lots of other issues have fallen away, but healthcare, housing, climate change, and crime and responsibility and public safety have all gone up. So the attempt to change the subject is starting to work on the margins which brings me to some tough love for the people who I win

this election. Now Peter Dutton and his team, of course, are trying to put together not just an alternative view for where they want to take the country, but they also have to prosecute and finish the case about how bad this government is. I think it's simple because remember they promised everything would be better. Everything got worse. So now the government turns around and says, oh on, it

will be really worse under the other guy. Now, yes, we're hiring somebody for the next three years, but you must pass judgment on a government for the previous three years. Has to say. The government's doing all it can to make Peter Dutton the issue because they think they'll be able to do to Peter Dutton what's got Morrison was able to do to Bill Shorten.

why Australians had a problem with it. This is a guy who's already setting himself up for a retirement because ultimately it doesn't matter what happens to him at the election, because he will still retire on hundreds of thousands of dollars, not to mention his own property portfolio, which brings him a income on top of his Prime minister or salary of six hundred thousand dollars a year of one hundred and forty thousand dollars. Now it's okay to be a

property investor in Australia. But they have tried any and everything to again change the subject and create some sort of dodginess around Peter Dutton. Philip Couri writes about this interestingly today in the Weekend Financial Review. None of this pesky detail seems to matter, that being that the stories are all garbage. The object here is to fill in the blanks for voters who have well formed views of Albanzi, whether they be ill or otherwise, but are just starting

to get their heads around Peter Dutton. Remember, of course, you make it, Jos to break up with the government before you turn your attention to who you want to spend the next three years with. The spin from Labor is that Dutton falsely affected a working class chic and share by buyap and property portfolio exposes that he is

not really that person. But of course the Prime Minister is able to pretend that he's still the boy from the Housing Commission joint, when of course he is now a man with millions of dollars of assets to his name via property, and of course has received massive pay rises and of course gets free upgrades even on the travel, which he is not doing for the taxpayer. We all

know which one is the actual silvertar. We know which one is actually the social climb, and we already know which one is actually the fraud in terms of the personality that they have put forward in front of the Australian people. But the simple question is this, when does the Liberal Party fight back? When does the Liberal Party

start to run hard at Albanesi? Where are the posters that are telling people in each and every electorate how much mortgage repayments in that electorate have gone up under Albanesi. Where is the social media that is all day every day hammering home points. Where is the major speeches. The reality is is that this is a very beatable government. The polls show that there are plenty of Australians who have had it up to here with the government. They do not buy that they believe that the country is

headed in the right direction. Instead it's in the opposite direction. And the reality is that while Dunton is keen to say that he's not going to be Aussie Trump because the effect on Teal seats and moderate voters would of course set their hair on fire, the reality is that in terms of some of the polls, albo Is Ossie, Joe Biden just thirty four percent of Australians believe this

government deserves to be re elected. Now that does mean that people from the far left and those people in the center and on the center right are all of one view, which is this mob has to go. Why because they promised a better world, they delivered a worse one.

And now they turn around and expect credit for delivering two little too late tax cuts, giving power bill relief in exchange for actually changing the two hundred and seventy five dollars that was promised, not to mention a disgraceful reality that under the boy from Housing Commission, three million people are this close to homelessness and three and a bit million people don't know where all of their meals

will come from this week. Apart from the personality, apart from the decision making, it is not up to the media to define Anthony Abernezi. It is up to his political opponents. And I'm sure that there is some wonderful plan that will kick in the day that an election is called. But the whole game of the Prime Minister not calling an election or hinting that one might be called this weekend for nothing to happen, is that if the Liberal Party is holding its fire for the start

of an election campaign. They give the Prime Minister days and days which become weeks and weeks to announce policies that he has no money for, or to invent scare campaigns that have no basis in fact, or to release the dirt files on the opposition. Now, again, I'm not a participant in Australian politics. I am an observer of it.

But if this government is going to go from a majority to a minority, to potentially the Liberal Party being able to fight from quite a position back to getting anywhere near a minority, they have to start fighting harder, more visibly. They have to be releasing more ads, they have to have a sharper message when it comes to social media, and they cannot afford to take a single

day off in terms of the fight. Because Australians are ready for a change, but we need to make sure that the people who are trying to effect that change are as hungry as those of us that would like to see it. Now, I know there are smart people that are hard working that will be very pissed off that I'm even saying what I am saying, But what I am saying is that I saw what Trump was able to do to Biden. He did it not over thirty three days, but he did it over thirty three weeks.

He did it over essentially the best part of two of the four years of that presidency. And the Opposition has made a case where according to some polls, there are plenty of people that are willing to make a change, but don't wait for the election to be called. Imagine it has already been called, not just when it comes to the big ideas, but the big attacks. Because this Prime Minister has a glass jaw, he will not be

able to keep his emotions in check. He still thinks that he's fighting against Scott Morrison, and he's the Opposition leader who has no responsibility so can continue to tell you that everything will be better despite the fact that

on his watch everything got worse. Not to mention his response when it comes to our national security and China circumnavigating Australia with warships, it's unacceptable, it is not okay, and it is time to go full bore, full bore, release every and anything you have, and do it every single day. If it's thirty three, if it's forty three

or it's fifty three days. It does not matter because the remember the reality in Australia is that more than half of all people will vote two weeks before election day. Australians vote early, which means the election camp, if it is to officially start in two weeks, well, the full

thirty three days starts now. So let's get to some of the latest polling, which is around tonight what we will get into in chapter and verse with our great team, and we'll get to them in a moment or two's time, of course, cos Samaris from red Bridge and the great Michael Kroger, who may well have you a little pushback or agree with what I've had to say here. So interestingly, a couple of weeks ago the Coalition was in striking distance of twenty seats. Now that would actually take them

very close to, if not a majority government. Well now two weeks later, Labour seems to have clawed back some ground. What was fifty one forty nine in some seats has now flipped the other way to Labour fifty one forty nine. And the scenario here is worth paying attention to about why the Libs must fight and fight hard now Labour's primary vote up one point, Liberal National down to Greens hold the line, others they are up. In terms of two party preferred, there has been one and a half

points that have changed in just two weeks now. Whether that is the interest rates or not, and there's some polling evidence suggests it is not, or it's the Meny scare campaign or anything else. Labour would love the idea of going into an election at fifty zo point five to forty nine point five because most likely the deals wouldn't be moving and not enough seats would move for the Liberal Party to get even close when it comes to a minority government. Again, let's get into this here.

The Reserve Bank, does it make you more likely or less likely or no difference? Sixty five percent of people say the interest rate change no difference. The percentage of workers who think that the country is headed in the right direction. Two weeks ago, that was twenty seven. It's now up to thirty three. Wrong direction fifty five now down to fifty percent. Let's get into the conversation right now with Cos Samaras from red Bridge. They're the ones

who put it all together. Michael Kroger, a legend of Liberal party politics, lots to get to and what we call the state of the race each and every Sunday night one for the hard course. Lads, love you to see you both, all right, cause looking at this has been a change, and whether the change is just a little bit here and a little bit there. It goes from the Libs threatening minority government to now the conversation simply being about whether labor how deep it goes into

minority government. Big change in two weeks. Yep.

now clinics. And of course you know the coalition today rebounds from that by promising more jets, which is fine, but that's not what we're picking up in our research, right, And so it does appear that the coalition is he's very flat footed and he's allowing Albanisi to really build some significant momentum here.

I don't think so, But I think you're right. Albanize's certainly out of the blocks. There's a long way to go, though, and he's already run out of other people's money. He seems to be spending billions every week. There's a point at which people say, hey, mate, this fast has got to end. I mean, he is partly adopting the Daniel Andrews strategy of Aden and which is bug of the public.

Just spend, spend, spend, promise them everything, roads, bridges, rail hospital, just promise everything, get over line and leave the debt to the next government two or three terms down the track. That's what Albo's doing at the minute. That's your strategy. It's worked in the past. Whether it works for federally, I very much doubt it because people pay a lot more attention to federal budgets they do state budgets, and I don't think the dead cat bounce will last.

electric which means it's a lovely little photo opportunity. It's a chance for a little bit of a nostalgia hit, which means the media going to go along and follow. He pours a beer, make the statement that we are going to freeze beer taxes for the next two years. The media, the media who should know better, do no better. This is how they reacted to it. Michael, you would love this coverage for a liberal candidate roll tape.

cents in the past six months. Australians are now paying twenty dollars for every slab of beer and about ninety cents for every pint. What I find amazing, Michael, is that the bloke who has put the taxes up on beer every chance he's got in this term gets credit from the media for promising not to do it in the next term. Now that's because the media are more than happy as always to give the benefit of the government. But where the hell was the opposition making the point

that I am making on television on Sunday night. Where were they pushing back because the fact that he got that rails run because look at the pictures of Hawkey is a disgrace.

It's more expensive. Did you know that every time you buy a slaber beer, twenty dollars of that is tax for elbow And that has to be the arm wrestle of each and every day. And because that's my point, which is that when you're going to sit and have focus groups in a week's time, and the Prime Minister says, now, even though the detail of a tax cut was fourteen dollars a week for people in and around forty thousand dollars right, even though the reality of the power price

thing is it's twenty five dollars a month. Even though the reality of the beer situation is that we're talking about a few cents into the future. He's going to point to it as a list of things when the opposition doesn't have a list of anything. That's my point.

Dutton's plan going to be different? Is Dutton's plan going to offer a different world compared to the last three years the people have experienced And so far we're hearing crickets, right, So all he has to do is stump up a plan and particularly run the economy. And if it does that, maybe some of these stunts won't work. But if in absence of that, it'll just keep running along. And yes, you'll keep building a momentum. But it's really up to Peter Dunton and actually stop it.

it is eventually when the zeitgeist changes. And what a week is a long time in politics, imagine what you know at least four or five six weeks might end up being so because about when you have a chat to people about these promises and multi billion this and that. One of the reasons why they might want to avoid a budget is because they don't want to show the numbers.

The reality of many of these things is as soon as I hear the word investment, it's code for off budget money, which is how they hired the actual spending here. But to Michael's point, which was, you know, it proved electorally successful in the short term, but in the long term it becomes disastrous. Victoria is now the worst place for the Labor Party around the country. You know, a huge difference in two party preferred they're compared to anywhere else.

So once, you know, once the bill comes in, people have the Harry hits. But until the bill comes in, you know, they might they might think somehow this has all been pre budgeted for. Does anyone in your focus groups say where is the money coming from? Because it feels like that's an essential question that Labor wants to ask of the opposition, but somebody should be asking it of the government.

They are acutely aware of what happens when governments run out of money, particularly Victoria. So in Victoria, yes, our pole does indicate a tightening of the race, but based on the numbers that we're seeing in Victoria, labor's still heading for an absolute wipeout in that state at a

better level. That's mainly because of the state budget, but also obviously people have been a lot more a tune in that state to what happens when you're not careful with the budget, and so hence I think some of the promises that are going on right now at a federal level won't fix the problem labor has in Victoria, which is up to six seats.

to a special school for the naughty kids. No, no, they sit in the same classroom as your kids, all right, So I know that the album Easy System would basically like the Victorian government to just go storm, go on holidays, go for a bender in Vegas. I didn't go for a bender in Vegas, but you get the point, right, bugger off for forty four days because seriously, to see that announcement and again it adds to bugger this Victoria labor.

And I get what the posters will be, you know, a black and white foddo with Albo and Allen and send the message about I get all of that. But let's have a look at some of these seats, particularly in around Victoria, because those numbers what James Campbell also focused in on today when he was writing about this poll, which is Aston Chisholm McEwen, Bruce, Dunkley, Hawk, Karngamite and Holt the first of that group. If we can show them, guys are the ones that are on track to lose.

Be great to see Julian Hill bye bye. But let's see and let's have a look here at some of those other ones. But that's the picture in Victoria. So what are you seeing there and what's missing off the list there? Michael?

right in eighteen it wasn't such a big deal. But Andrews spent one hundred billion defeating Matthew Guy in eighteen and twenty two, and people thought, this guy Andrews is a strong leader. Money's free, it's no problem. We canna have a hospital. We're going to have everything here in Victoria. That's what Andrews said. Fast forward to twenty twenty four, people are now saying hang on. When Dennis Napthlin left office in two thousand and forty, in the last Liberal premiere,

state debt was twenty billion, two zero. Soon it's going to be one hundred and eighty eight billion. So people who have now worked out hang on labor basically bankrupt us in Victoria. I mean this just Cinder Allen and Daniel Andrews have bankrotered us to the point where Ja Cindra Allen made our premier. Yere, I don't know who you've caught up with this. She's going to start our own doze here in Victoria. She's sacking three thousand public

servants because the public service is too big. She's got to save money, so she's sacking three thousand public servants. So effectively, what's happening in the foundation of Albanesi's problems Victoria is the massive unpopularity of the state labor government, very similar to nineteen ninety when a massively unpopular labor government.

Cane Kern, who'd also bankrubb to Victoria and Jeff Kennett now on Stockdale had to fix it up very similar circumstances, and so you know there was a five point one percent swing against labor in the nineteen ninety election. Here in Victoria, I noticed cousin Tony Barry stats have got an eight and a half. Helloloja, I hope you're right there, mate, because they could catapult Dutton into the prime minister ship on his own eight and a half percent though that

is a very big number in a general election. That's a massive number in a general election, so I hope, but yeah, Dutton can do very well here.

but what the reality of what would have to change. Now. I know there's a difference between a general election number and a by election number, but the margin of difference between on two party preferred the Liberal Party and the Labor Party in the seat of Dunkley is nine hundred

and twenty six people. So because when you are looking at the stats and the numbers inside the numbers, inside the numbers, when we see a one point here or a one point there, when you've got something like five thousand people who need to change their mind in any one seat. Is one point enough for that? I know it's different in different states. I know that. You know the electric size is very different in Tasmania to Victoria.

But if you want to start to at home be an amateur sort of predictor here if a one point change, would that be enough for nine hundred and twenty six votes to change?

rest of the country thirty five. That's why it matters, all right, not just cost of a living, but that mortgage thing matters. Okay, pay attention. We're counting the grains of the sand and we're currently up to four five and twenty five in just this one little handful. All right, quick break back with more here on Paul Murray life. Rosa. Marris is the man behind the Red Bridge organization. They know, just do polling. They're doing rolling polling, they're doing also

focus group. He's got plenty of insights and lots of data. You know, we love the data. That is the brick in the wall that we build here. The opinion is the mortar. The man to help us with all of that is a great Michael Kroger, who's coming to Vegas when we go next year for as long as I

possibly can. All Right, so be couse. I haven't read much about this, but I'm going to ask about the teals because Michael is as always on the edge of his seat to see if there's any indication anywhere of a bit of a change, because if there is, then that's a couple more For the Libs. What if anything, are you seeing at this moment in the second phase of your polling, and it will happen every couple of weeks and then every week during the campaign about Teals.

independence so where could they possibly blulue seats? So we're looking at a seat like Curtain in Perth, and we're looking at a seat like Goldstein in Melbourne where the numbers are very tight, and that's where if there's something going to happen and the the political order will flip, it will be there. However, in seat like Bradfield in Sydney, Tills could pick up a seat. I agree, right, And the don't don't let's not ignore the federal seat of Monash.

The Russell Broadbands running it is an independent and there's a Till independent run there as well, and they're exchanging preferences. So it's going to be an interesting contest because it's so there's a there's another war going on, and it's on the flanks, and that's that's for the liberal versus independent contest. But obviously we can talk about the green side of it.

And again in places like Queensland that might be one nation, we know that they're running nationally in things like Newspole it's something like nine percent, right, so that they're going to be a factor the UAP or Trumpet's thing. Will all see what happens that other number. When you I mean again, you can't, you're not going to bend the numbers we try to understand them. Does other also mean undecided?

When we are talking about looking at some poles at the moment that clearly there's not going to be a twenty five percent vote in places that are very traditionally red or blue.

the election campaign could actually impact. You know, normally I would go to the down the doctrine of running a campaign for three months, because you know, you can't change the result in thirty days. But in this instance, there's so many people up for grabs that I think you can so he That's why I think the next thirty odd days or whenever that is, are going to be actually absolutely critical for the result.

in nineteen ninety six, et cetera, et cetera. So what you don't want, though, at a federal level is after one term to be thinking that way, because that's not what happens. You have to will people to vote for you, and you have to get them to vote against the other mob. Now, I think so much damage has been done by Alban easy to himself into his government with Wong and Bowen and all these characters, and I think you've got a weak treasurer. I think I think they're

very vulnerable from their own performance. I mean, no one is saying it's been a great labor government. I mean, no one says that, right, No one says this is a hawk style government of you know, vote for them on the other and what does the opposition have to do. The opposition has to give people a very strong alternative. Now,

Dutton has been very good. The reason Dunton gets a lot of plaudits and the reason he's in front of the polls is unlike a lot of politicians, he's actually had the courage to come out and say, I think we should have nuclear power in Australia. Very courageous policy. He's right, but god, it takes a lot of courage. I mean, if I think back to the Liberal leaders and others who've not been that strong on this issue. Very strong in immigration, right, very strong on Israel, very

strong in government spending right. Dutton has given. Dunton has given a definition of who he is right and people know his background as a policemen, etc. So the answer to your question is, going forward to the election, more very strong messages on issues that are of relevance to people. So, you know, whilst you say Labor's had momentum over the last week, and I think that's fair to say, I'm absolutely certain that there's a lot of firepower in Dutton's locker.

The other thing, just to what cause was saying, sorry, sorry, Paul Kuyong Tu, you on the Teal sets Will were fascinating. So three years ago in twenty twenty two, the two compelling reasons were three reasons where it wasn't the Morrison government we'd been there for nine years blah blah blah, but global warming and anti corruption where the big issues the Teals ran on. Now the Anti Corruption Commission is in, that's a zero issue. Global warming is now the major

issue for in causes. Servage was fascinating today in the paper. Global warming is now only the main priority for seven percent of the electric So I'm wondering how that's going to affect the Teal vote. I mean, if you've got labor vote down the three big issues the Teal ran on, Morrison's gone any Corruption's not an issue, global warming seven percent? Doesn't that mean the Teals are in trouble in some of these seats. Seriously?

One that, you know, is something that I think some of these Australians will vote for, and hence they a lot of these voters are now just shopping around looking for an alternative, can't quite find one. Some which just end up voting for the majors because that's all they think they can do. Some will vote for independence and minor parties. So the appetite, therefroent for something other than

the Coles and wo Worths of politics is huge. It's just that there isn't really allowed a stage for any any of that sort of hunger, so to speak.

he want to spend more money in Ukraine? I'll explain why next, all right. What you may have noticed a couple of stories over the weekend about a little meeting between the presidents of the United States and Ukraine didn't end well, so much so that the President of Ukraine was booted out of the White House, ended up leaving the country, and as we speak, is in the arms of the UK. It looks like Trump will move on with basically completely moving away from all support that's previously

been there for Ukraine. Kelly Jane Torrens is an excellent writer with The New York Post. She's across all of this, all the ups, all the downs. Her newspaper has had a Ukrainian flag on its front page at many times. So, Kelly Jane, how do you feel about what we all saw with our own eyes about a day ago.

the country this country. Have you said thank you once a lot of times?

the blame unfortunately. I hate to say this, but it's en Volodimir Zelenski. He this meeting was crucial to him, and he'd been coached I am told by a number of Republicans in Congress and and other friends of Ukraine on the on the right how to handle this meeting, and what he needed to do was smile, say thank you, shake hands, and sign this mineral deal. Uh, it was not really that much of a of a stretch. You know, I get it in the moment, you get angry, you

get irritated. Yeah, but you know what you're You're the president of a country at war. You need to hold on to those emotions inside and outwardly do what's best for your country and really for the world in holding Russia at bay. And he utterly failed. And everyone I know, you know, it's just so disappointed with what happened. You know, even people I know that placed the blame on Vans or Trump, even they admit Zelenski did not handle himself well at all.

accounting in and around that money. But also it feels to me like some of the feeling about Trump and Magaworld has nothing to do with Ukraine and it connects back to trillions of dollars in Iraq and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan. Can you, again help explain to people watching in little old Australia, how did we get to the point where the American president feels how he feels about a country that's been invited by what I lost time checked was an enemy Russia.

and you know, utter failures. You spent all that money and again blood and treasure, blood meeting the you know, Americans died in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and you know what happened was not what was supposed to happen those countries clearly, And you look at Afghanistan. What a real disaster that has been for the people there as well, not just for the Americans who died. And you know, there's a phrase he used here a lot forever wars, and so you know, the American people are tired of war and

they're skeptical of spending their money for foreign wars. And I do also put some of the blame on President Biden. He did not sell aid to Ukraine well at all. He really didn't. He didn't. You know, this really deserved

a prime time address from the president. Listen. You know, one of our allies has been attacked by one of our biggest enemies, and this is why we need to help them, and this is what we're going to do, and this is how and this is again something by never never spoke to, how to help Ukraine actually achieve victory and not just a stalemate, which is sort of the situation we've ended up. It's really terrible, you know.

And my paper New York Post, you know, begged by many times please sell this war, our support to Ukraine and this better than he did. He did not. And so you've got all of those things coming together. And of course, you know President Trump was just elected, and he did say he was going to end this now. He did not end it on day one as he promised, but of course even he, I'm sure knew that was an impossible feat. He's got to bring these parties together,

he's got to get deals made, negotiations done. But he did make a promise to end it quickly, and the American people voted for that. And so this is all all in the background of what's going on here.