From the Skyinging Center.
This is Paul Murray Live. Hey you gang, thank you for watching us this Sunday. We are surviving on water and honey. But I think we are one of millions doing that right now. So apologies for the voice, but no change in the focus. Lots of things to talk about tonight, including what you think is the bold prediction for the week ahead. Will Philip Thomson will join us from Campbell to talk about the latest madness out of Andrew Giles and the idiocy which is now involving the
Prime Minister directly. Let's see how he tries to whiggle his way out of this, which no doubt he will do with the support of the lefty press gallery. But first, what about Donald Trump? Now, if you or I had got thirty four convictions held up against us, if there was a chance of us going to jail, there's a chance you'd probably stay at home on the first chance that you got not Trump. He was offered the UFC and the crowd seemed to like him.
Trump he is in the building in the form of present any standing.
Ovationion so good, I've how many lifties heads are going to go? Now, of course this was all following the obvious news which brought Friday morning ASTRADI in.
Time, Donald Trump found guilty on all thirty four counts.
The former president Donald that Jay Trump found guilty on all counts.
The jury found Trump guilty.
Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty.
Donald Trump is a convicted felam.
Donald Trump the first former president to be convicted in a criminal trial.
Now the left, well, I was slotting off their chairs with excitement about all of this, because finally they had got their man. He is now a convicted felon, and a big asterisk nice exists over the twenty sixteen election.
Well, my reaction was, I was at Costco buying you ten boxes of cured coffee, and my watch started to buzz and I got so excited I started leaking all bit.
Do you say you want peace, you say you'll never get peace along as Donald Trump is here.
Yeah, I don't believe I ever will.
It's an unbelievable story. A guy that was made by New York was just in some ways, you could argue broken by New York.
The test for US now as a country is whether or not this former president and his allies will have succeeded in trying to undermine the rule of law so that people reject this as a legitimate function of the rule of law in our country.
Because Byron Donald's who is from East Flatbush, Brooklyn, as myself, and Tim Scott who is from the great state of South Carolina, and Marco Ruvio, who is Latino, they know damn well who normally ends up at the bottom of this criminal the actual VICTI by.
The way, that lady never goes to Costco the first one. And what point exactly is she making here? Anyway, they were very excited, They remain excited. They will continue to be excited until the appeals process either upholds or destroys what the New York court. Now. Of course, all of these people, if they're talking about let's say, no African American defendants, would have plenty to say about a justice
system if it was Deep Dock, Alabama. But because this is brought in beautiful New York City, justice has been done. But on the right, of course, I believe, well, now that I have done this to Trump, it is time to start drawing up lists and do it in reverse.
Now what we need is steely resolve. I hope all of you are angry. I hope you're hurt. I hope you see what's happening to your republic. I hope you see it all. I want you to internalize it, and I want that channeled in what is going to be an enormous outburst of energy downrange to defeat this. The only way it's going to be defeated.
Is at the ballot box.
And when we win at the ballot box and close the deal this time, we can start to take this apparatus apart roches jail.
They should get the death penalty.
You know, we actually used to have the punishment for treason in this country for surectionally.
Wow, they'll actually hurt us like they would execute us.
Me.
I'll just see you to speak for myself. And there would be an MSNBC panel of formal federal prosecutors telling their audience that they deserved it, and they'd be laughing, and the Lincoln Project would send out a congratulatory tweet.
Now, like you have had a couple of nights to sleep on it, and you try to work out you try to think, Okay, is this the red line that now Trump is a convicted felon that you can no longer want him to win the presidency in November, or is it an example of a system that was twisted in every way possible to get the verdict so they could have the title of convicted felon. And I'll be honest with you. When I woke up and saw it all happening on Friday, and I was here on Friday
with my dear friend Laura Jays, I was angry. I was angry because, as I've told you before, I've spent many a sleepless night watching the court case, watching it, trying to watch it on MSNBC, where they have nothing prosecutors telling you why everything pointed to guilty. And then, of course, my wonderful friend and much bigger brain than me, Meghan Kelly, I've been watching her show and talking to her on the air about why this was again stitched together to get the result that they got. So no
doubt you. If you are somebody who would like to see Trump return to the presidency, or even more importantly, like to see Biden removed from the presidency, this has been an odd weekend because to the lefties amongst us, this is the point of our return. How could you possibly think anything other than a jury of his peers
found him guilty. Well, of course that's true. But just as I said about a black man on trial in deep dark parts of the American South, you would know that the system is moved in certain ways to get that result. And I believe that that is what happened here in New York. Now, I believe when it comes to Donald Trump that this was not the line. This was not the moment to take us into the criminal
prosecution of a former president. I think the retention of documents in Mari Lago, Yeah, that's okay, because it's about his time as the president. The evidence seems pretty obvious there that when given multiple opportunities to hand back what are documents that the public own and literally everything from a post it note that you write in the White House through to almost everything that's produced during your presidency, Yes you have to give it back. Now. Yes Joe
Biden didn't give it back. Yes there are other examples, but that's a federal trial. But that federal trial has been delayed so probably won't be dealt with before the election. So I personally feel that the wrong thing happened. But again, it's a weird moment because the people who hate Donald Trump take this conversation I'm having with you right now and say there they are in denial of the truth, just like they were after the election. I wasn't in
an election denier. It was obvious. It was clear that yes, everyone did their part, and everyone changed the system as best as they could. But still the legal result was that Trump lost twenty twenty. In the couple of years between twenty and twenty two, there was an active conversation about whether the world had moved on from Trump or not. But the reality was, as we saw with the primary process, that Republican voters in the United States forget what we
think in Australia. They believe that there is unfinished business in the Trump candidacy and potentially a second term of the Trump presidency. Now, the truth about how we all feel in Australia is of course irrelevant because we don't have a vote. But the direction of America is what sets it for the Western world, and many of us believe that Joe Biden's taken it in the wrong direction.
So if the person to take down Biden is Trump, well then you're forced into a scenario of backing the imperfect candidate, a candidate who yes, now has thirty four convictions against him. But tonight, I also wanted to do something apart from just talk through some of the emotions, because it is implicated, right. It's not frown face, it's not sookie time. It's just complicated because, like you, I've lost friends over being even Trump literate, litt alone pro Trump.
At times I was mocked and who cares we lead with our chin, but mocked because I interviewed the president and I didn't ask the question that they wanted asked. So I know what this is like when polite society is over here and you are sometimes not where polite society is. But we'll all find out together in November about whether it's where the American people are. But tonight I wanted to, just like when we do a by election, a state election, a budget or a federal election, try
to bring it down to five things. Now, it's not five things that you need to know about what happened in the court, because we've all seen what happened in the court. We all saw that the judge probably should have recused himself because he literally donated against Trump pro Biden, And you would think exactly the same thing if it we say, Joe Biden on trial in the most pro Trump state. But of course that is not the reality.
The reality is, of course, what's happened to Trump. But he's five things, the five questions that I have been asked, be it at the servo or be it at anyone have had the chance to talk to this weekend, let alone the ones that I think we should just try to answer so we all understand the process and that we're too from here. So five things that we need to know begins with what happens next. Now I've read an awful lot on this, but let's go from say
the ABC America, which is not like ours. It's a commercial network, the ABC America reporting about what happens next. So between now and July the eleventh, there'll be a thing called a pre sentencing investigation. Now, this is where literally somebody will do a mental health check on the former president. Would he be able to serve time in jail? Is he physically able to do so, all the rest of it. They will also put together a thing called a probation report, which is if the decision was made
for him not to go to jail. Well, what limits could be put on his life now? Obviously everything from a suspended sentence to thirty days stuck at home, no phone, house, arrest store, of course, the same period of time in jail. You also need to know that when it comes to jail and Donald Trump, that yes, he would actually have
to have his Secret Service with him. See, all presidents for the rest of their life are called mister President, unless, of course, it was in this courtroom and it was just mister Trump, mister Trump, mister Trump, but still the honorary the title of mister President travels with you until your death, as does Secret Service to physically secure you. Now, some presidents also have full access and they make the most of the full access to get intelligence briefings, all
the rest of it. And many of those things have been cut off by the Biden administration because they believe that Trump does not deserve or should not have access to that information. But then back into the court, both the prosecution and the defense will have their opportunity to turn around and say what they think should happen. Now. Alvin Bragg, who is the prosecutor on Friday, was asked, will you be pushing for jail. He did not say so, but in previous times he has said that he would
be pushing for jail. Obviously, the defense will firstly turn around and say, ignore what the jury said, that's not going to happen, or give us the lightest possible touch here, maybe a fine, maybe a suspended sentence. But all of this comes down to the decision of the judge, who is the same judge who's been all the way through the process, from the grand jury looking at the information, to the selection of the jury, to the running of
the trial to the watching of the verdict. That judge, Judge Michon, will now hand down his sentence on July the eleventh. Now, what is amazing about that date is literally just four days later, the president, the former president of the United States, will be accepting the Republican nomination
at the Republican Convention. Now, if he decided to jail him, he could jail him immediately, or the expectation is that because of the appeal process, the sentence would stand, but it would just keep being delayed until the appeal process finishes. Now Trump will appeal. I'll get to the details of why they think that will be successful in a moment. But let's deal with number two here, will Trump go to jail? Now, again, we're going off the what happens
next here. So NBC, when they had a reporter who apparently had spoken to a bunch of other people behind the scenes, said this about whether or not he will be going to jail as a result of these thirty four convictions.
Here's the deal.
He's going to be sentenced on July eleventh. From what legal experts have told us, it is unlikely that the former president will end up behind bars. Obviously that is a possibility. There is a chance that it happens. But remember,
he is a first time offender. This is a non violent set of crimes that he's been convicted of, these falsification of business records here, and so the guidance from the folks who are immersed and steeped in the law of it all is that it is unlikely that Judge Murshan would sentence him.
Now, of course, the rathers that say no, slam dunk, he should send him to job. But again I'm trying to show you the reporting from America that is showing what all of the options are. Over on CNN, again, one of their legal analysts doesn't think that he's going to go to jail, But of course it's completely up to the judge, and the judges we know throughout the trial pretty much has said no to everything the defense wants, including witnesses that the defense claimed would have been able
to prove that he was innocent. Instead, he pumped up everything that the prosecution wanted. So is he going to be on the harder side of things. We'll all find out together, But he's CNN.
If we look at the universe of Class E convictions in New York State, and several good researchers out there have done sort of surveys over the last year or so, Generally, the estimates are that somewhere between seventy and ninety percent of Class E New York convictions result in non prison sentences, So that would be some combination of probation five perhaps
community service by the Congress. Of that ten to thirty ish percent do result in prison time, and this will be entirely up to Judge Mursham.
So it's a small chance, but still ten to thirty percent means if for whatever reason they thought that because you keep breaking the gag order, because you've never said sorry, because you double down because you say the process is read let alone. If it's a bias care room, there is a avenue, but it is the unlikely avenue again based off what they're reporting in America, and I know that you can find an expert that'll tell you one
hundred percent this way, one hundred percent that way. I'm trying to give you a flavor of where things are going to go. I've given you my opinion at the start, but as always, we're trying to follow the data for you here. So number three, if you don't go to jail, as you go to jail straight away. Now remember that's four days before the Republican convention. So if he was going to sentence him to jail, obviously it happens on that day and he goes or maybe not. Again, it's
all down to the judge. Mahon is a person who literally left wing prosecution. Former prosecution people were on MSNBC saying that had a man crush on him because he was the most amazing example of a normal judge. But of course the X factor here isn't just whether he would go to jail or not, but of course what happens those couple of days later, and as I mentioned to you, Trump turning up at the Republican Convention like he did WWE style, I do love this entrance. I
do love this entrance. Good bit of theater. But at WWE, I think involved in all of that. After all, he's a Hall of Famer in the World Wrestling entertainment, in the celebrity wing. For those who want to follow the facts, the convention is literally the next week, so again fascinating. If he's sent to jail, does he miss the convention or because of as I said before, the appeals process, even if he's sent to jail, he doesn't actually go to jail straight away again CNN.
If Donald Trump does get a prison sentence imposed on him on July eleventh, odds are very very high he will not have to start serving that sentence right away because in a case like this, he's very likely to get what we call bail pending appeal, meaning he will almost certainly not have to begin serving any sentence until after all of his appeals are done.
And that process will not be this year. Most likely. The expectation is the appeal process could go through until next year. Next year, we're of course, he's the president of the United States. Now, interestingly, in that process, this is a state court decision. So whether a state court can somehow force a president to jail, I don't know. Or whether it's something that starts the day you finished being president again, I don't know. So then there's the
question of the appeal. Now I've been led to believe by the experts that I've been watching and reading that the appeal process would be pretty friendly to Donald Trump. But of course I've been viewing it that way. Why because I don't think you should have been found guilty in this case, because in my belief that it wasn't proven. But it doesn't matter what I say, that jury made
its decision. Our dear friend, Megan Kelly explains why she's so confident he will win an appeal, but it could take up to a year.
This will be reversed. It will be reversed. This will not stand, mark my words, even in a New York appella court system that is weighted with Democrats on the bench. The highest court in New York is called the Court of Appeals. It's not completely corrupt. It just overturned the conviction of Harvey Weinstein because he wasn't given a fair trial. They are capable of reaching a rational decision, and if they're not, this could be appealed up higher still to
the US Supreme Court. There were state constitutional violations here, and there were federal constitutional violations here.
And again this is why I'm sitting up in the middle of the night and feeling and we're not quite going in the direction that common sense would dictate. Not about blind faith about Trump. As I say, Document's case. I think there's a pretty clear case there that is very difficult for him to defend. But of course we're talking with Megan later in the week, and I wanted to take a big chunk of time tonight not to just talk about the opinion, but to talk about the machine.
So you now know when people ask you, so, can he appeal, Yes, he can appeal. Will he go to jail? Unlikely? But still the option is there if he goes, If he gets sentenced, does he get slotted straight away? Well, no,
you have to wait for the appeal process. Again, there's very very minor ways where he could go to jail straight away, But we're trying to deal with what is more likely than not so then the obvious has there been any immediate political sign here that guilty equals Trump going from leading the race to suddenly going the other way in Biden getting up and over the top. That's, of course proving the central thesis of Trump and all
of his supporters that all of this is political. He was winning in all the polls to this point, and is this the moment that sends the race to the other direction. So, as you know, it's not about fifty states, they all have an election, it's seven states that end up mattering. These are seven states that voted for Trump, voted against Trump, might be coming back to Trump. And according to the latest Real Clear Politics Average, Now that's a website that literally looks at every single poll, does
the mats, does the averaging. It shows that Trump is in the lead in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada. Now, even if the average is slightly slightly generous to Trump, that only takes one two states off the table. So I'll be leading in five of the seven right now. But Forbes magazine, they had a look at a Morning Consult poll which just came out in the past twenty four hours, and it does show some signs that those
margins may well get changed, and changed pretty quickly. In fact, they claim that ten percent of Republicans in the reutter IPSOS poll survey of two and a half thousand Americans are less likely to vote for Trump because of the conviction eighteen percent of independence so they are more likely to vote for Trump. So there are of course more Republicans and there are in pons, so statistically that would still end up with Trump having fewer votes. It's explained
again this way on NBC News. I'm trying to show you the sources that are not friendly to Trump, and NBC goes through this pole as.
Well, eleven percent of GOP voters and twenty six percent of independent voters suggesting they're less likely to vote for him now, but largely the historic conviction keeping the Bait and Trump rematch in that scene month's long deadluck.
So in that one they have Biden just in front by one point, but that's nationally, not in the seven states that matter. Obviously, as this week rolls on, the next couple of weeks will start to get even more poles. But the final word on the polls and about whether this is moving or not. Let's dig even deeper into the data. And five point thirty eight is a website which is owned by ABC News in America, again the commercial station, not like our ABC here, and they deep
dive into every little this, that and the other. It's one of the sources that I turn to to try to file through things. They are a bunch of lefties, but still they say here that the movement, yes, might be away from Trump, but it's not towards Biden.
In terms of kind of their raw support. Donald Trump's number goes down by six points, but Joe Biden's number only goes up by one point. What's happening here is that?
Yeah, another BFD.
Yeah, what's happening here is that Trump supporters in these polls are going from Trump to undecided or I believe one of the polls had kind of a vague quote someone else's option. That is a very convenient place for people who want to vote for Trump to park their support for basically the next month or so.
So well, all of the attention, all of the noise had there, could you possibly support Donald Trump? That's where potentially that vote may go before it goes back to Trump now. Of course, between now and the judge making his decision on the eleventh of July, there'll be a presidential debate. Trump could kill it or kill is chances because we know when it comes to debating, he's got to control himself. But that debate is very different than
the one that happened four years ago. Remember, no studio audience, microphones can be cut off. It's very pro Biden scenario. But there's plenty between now and then. So at this stage, a couple of days after it, Yes, there's a moment in the polls. Yes, it is away from Trump, but according to them, it is not directly to Biden. So the five things that you need to know, he's the
simple yes no answers. Okay. I explained about what happens next, where we go through the process of working out his sentence, which comes down on July the eleventh. It is assumed to be a lower chance that he goes to jail. He would not have to go to jail right away.
He would be able to appeal, and the suggestion is that the way the judge ram things would be one of the main reasons he'd go for the appeal and potentially win it if you agree with me that it was a somewhat unfair process, not exactly middle of the road. And I've just explained the polls to you, So there you go. My thoughts, my feelings and the data about Donald Trump found guilty thirty four times in a row in New York. Now this will get him going in
camber because Parliament's back again this week. What do the current Prime Minister of Australia and the former president of the United States have in common. Well, they can never admit a mistake. They can never admit that anything they did was just wrong. Perfect example Andrew Giles, the Immigration Minister. Now, of course, as you know, decision was made by Anthony Arbernese to help out just Center Durn with her domestic politics before she of course quit the post and Labor
lost the New Zealand election. Made the decision to introduce a new law that basically said, if you've got a connection to Australia, you can stay in Australia. This meant that people like a bloke from Africa who married an Indigenous woman was able to stay in the country because he had kids with that woman and apparently could play the Digitido. Stay here, don't get deported. But back to this,
nothing's a mistake, Murray what hardcore partisan? The agriculture minister and a lot of people in the bush want me to talk about the agriculture minister from Brucebane, but I'll get to that. He was on television today and guess what, no mistake, despite the fact that they have admitted it was a mistake and they're going to change the law.
Even the advice that Andrew Charles was provided by his department when making that direction indicated that there would be no impact on people where we were talking about serious offenses having been committed. Of course, that's not the way the AAT has interpreted it. They interpreted it in a way that was never intended by the government and that's exactly why we're now taking action to fix it.
We changed the rules. They interpreted the rules as they are written. It's the public servant's fault that we didn't get advised that they could have interpreted the rules as they were written. But clearly the admission of the mistake was the Prime Minister saying that they would change the rules.
Right the Parliament yesterday past legislation abolishing of the raw toed AAT and replacing it with a new Administrative Review Tribunal. And the only effective way of ensuring that tribunal members are making better decisions is to issue a new revised direction, which the Minister will be doing. The new directive will ensure that the protection the committee outweighs any other.
It's just like Trump, you never meet you wrong, never, never, never never ever. Just like Daniel Andrews, you never have met you wrong, ever, ever, no matter what you're caught doing, what you're caught saying, or what you end up changing. So yes, Albau is each way albo heir of us elbow and now he's kind of trumpy elbow now like everyone in Australia of reasonable mindset. I love Josh Frodenberg. I think he's an excellent man who was a wonderful
I said to his community in Couyoon. What he did here on the air last week when it came to the conversation of anti Semitism, was one of the most watched things we've ever done. Beautiful piece of programming. Well done, mate. But there's always this question about whether he wants to get back involved in politics or not. Now, do I think you should be in the parliament. Yes, of course
I think you should be in the parliament. I love the guy, but there's a couple of questions we have to ask about whether he should jump back into the parliament now. Now you see on Friday they announced the new boundaries for Victorian and Western Australian seats at the election. Believe me, you can get lost in the weeds here.
I will not bore you, but basically Couyong is now going to be moved some of its boundaries to have a lot more liberal vote in it, which would be incredibly tempting for Josh to jump back in and say, I you only just beat me. This might be the way for me to just beat you or blow past it. Karen Andrews, the former Home Affairs minister who's taking a
bat and ball and leaving at this election. By the way, she says that Josh Friedenberg, in my view, with someone that we need to bring back to the Liberal Party and Indo federal politics. I think we have an opportunity to revisit this blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. But here's my advice to Joosh if he wants to run full support, great, but you've got a great job, pile up the money, take care of your family and if you want to get back in politics
next election or maybe the one after that. Right, not because I want Menique Ryan to stay in the Parliament, but I actually think that the Liberal Party has got a pretty good shot in the person that they have actually pre selected for the seat of Kuyon. And let's not deal with all of the politics of a bloke wanting to get back into parliament and pushing a woman out of the way. Why do you want to do
that to yourself? All right? Again, if Josh wants to get back in, if people want to get out of the way, we'll all back in Josh, no question, right, But I just say, you've got a great job at Goldman Sachs. Pile up the cash. If you want to speak out on important issues, you've shown you've been able to do that in the past couple of weeks. All right, but we'll wait and see what happens. But about those boundary changes, So one seat has been removed completely and
taken off the board. It is currently a labor seat, the seat of Higgins, formerly a seat in the Liberal seat for a very long period of time, a former doctor, former boss of the AMA I think in Victoria is the current MP, the former MP Katie Allen I think was a good chance of taking the seat back. Why because well it's a different politics than it was a couple of years ago. It was only just a win here for the MP. So that seat is now off the table. So there's all suggestions about where should Katie
Allen go and where should this MP go again. I won't bore you with it. I'm not anti Josh by the way. I'm just saying, just make the money, just feed up, make the money right and put it all behind the young lady who's trying to defeat Menique Ryan, so you don't have to run on the record of previous governments and all the new usual garbage. They can go. Be a bit hard for them to do the ulgerd boog of politics about the young woman, as they would
about anyone involved in the previous government. But as for the actual seats, now quite a few seats could change hands at this next election, because the seat of Higgins disappears, Labor down one cou Yong well as I said, it becomes a lot more liberal. Albourne currently Green becomes more liberal, but it's that lefty liberal, so I wouldn't expect to
change there. Wills, which is currently held by the Labour Party, the former seat of Bob Hawk, it gets a lot more Green voters and that's why the Green's leader in the Upper House in Victoria has stepped down to take on the Labour MP. And Cooper, which is also held by the ALP, becomes a little bit more Green. Menzies becomes a lot more ALP Deacon becomes a lot more ALP.
So you can do the sums here about weather. There's a chance that a couple of seats go from Liberal to Labor and Labor to Liberal, but essentially it's a shuffling around of the same deck in the next little while. But we will find out what is about to happen in what seat disappears in New South Wales, and then what's going to happen in Queensland. All of where the map is helps tell us whether the result is going
to be one way or the other. Now, one question I want to ask the good people of Queensland who I love. I will say it every time. If I could have the blood transfusions to be a Queensland I would. I wish, I wish, I wish that I could vote the upcoming election because Queensland needs a new start. It needs to get rid of Stephen Miles, It needs to get rid of the Labor government. You know all of the reasons why, from youth crime to hospitals to their
financial management. They are shockers. Get rid of them. And every pole tells us to this point that yeah, that's probably going to be the case. They could lose as many as twenty something seats that had blast them right back into opposition, not as bad of course as the annibly loss a few years ago. But Stephen Miles, well,
he believes that he's got a special idea here. He thinks that he may well be able to turn the situation from people ignoring him at the polls like they did at a buy election in a safe Labor seat a few months ago, into holding onto power. Why because one thousand dollars is coming your way via credits when electricity companies, or as the Treasurer said, if you fill out this form and push it that way, you may end up with a thousand dollars in your pocket. So
I asked the question. Then I repeat it, now, can you buy an election?
Now?
I don't think the people of Queensland are that stupid at all. I think that they would take the money it still vote the other way. But the unions are doing their bit to try to change the narrative that they've already bottomed out. And unions, including one that is very close to Stephen Miles, has put out a pole and it got headlines and it suggested that the Labour Party's vote is coming up as a result of, among
other things, the one thousand dollars payment. But this is a pile which is paid for by a union that is pro labor. It shows Labour's vote is up by three percent, it shows everyone else's vote is down, but it also shows sixteen percent of people are undecided. So I reckon this pile had a lot of wish and a lot of hope, and a lot of leaning and a lot of pushing to get to where they wanted.
But they got a headline out of it. And if they got a headline out of it, well that's the whole point of politics, to try to change the narrative, all right, let's get into the debate right now. We will do so in a moment's time. No loooks, no left this on Sunday night, looking forward to James Ashby in a moment or two time. Also, what is your
bold prediction for the weak ahead? Jump onto the socials Philip Thompson joints us from Canberra as well as things now start to circle the Prime Minister's office not just that idiot Andrew Giles Monast. Thank you so much for watching, and thank you for the very patient waitings of none other than the wonderful James Ashby, who was of course running for the seat of Keppel and the upcoming Queensland election.
Get rid of the government, get rid of the government and our old libertarian mate Christy Abram the single best thing to come out of the Dunkley by election. Love to see you rock stars, all right? So the Trump star, James, the former President's been on Fox News today. I'll show you a grab it him in a second. But just your thoughts on plenty I had to say before or what you're thinking a couple of days.
After, mate, You're right across this.
Yeah, I love the idea of the Secret Service having to go out of prison with him. I've just got this funny feeling. I'd love to see the guest list of who goes and visits him in prison. You never know it might actually bring back. Do you remember how Johnny Cash used to go out of the prison system and play to the to the prisoners.
A whole new revival.
Could you imagine which artists would come and play for Trumpet prison?
Imagine something that's really care To be honest.
San Quentin, I hate every inchview you what a great song and Foalsham Prison Blues exactly. Kristen, how do you feel about it?
Look, I'm gonna have to break it down with you, Paul.
So.
I don't know how it's going to impact the polls. But so he's been convicted and it wasn't a defamation case, it wasn't a harassment case. But Stormy Daniels has turned around and said she feels as though she's been vindicated by the guilty result. I don't understand what she feels vindicated from, because to me, it's a stormy and a teacup.
Well said, because remember the whole point of this, right, it wasn't did they or didn't they? Irrelevant? Right, it wasn't was there an NDA not illegal? Right? It was all about how it was put into the books. The bookkeeper anyway, won't bore them, the bookkeeper. They didn't call it right, they didn't call the federal elections people say, okay, we'll all see what happens. For his part, here is what Donald Trump had to say today on Fox News.
Well, look, you know, I'm fighting for the Constitution. I'm fighting for the same thing that you three are. Watch you all the time, and same thing that you do. You fight for freedom, you fight for your country. These people are sick. They're sick, they're deranged.
You know.
I talk about the enemy on the outside and the enemy from within.
See if Russia, you have China, but if you have.
A smart president, you always handle them quite easily. Actually we have a lot of advantages. But they're the enemy from within. They are doing damage to this country.
All right.
Let's go back to Australia and Order ninety nine, the fact that the government is changing it. But no, we didn't make a mistake at all. Blame every and anyone they possibly could in every way. It's all now about the Prime Minister Andrew Clenell's reporting this morning here on Sky News was that the Prime Minister's department and they
don't think do things just off on their own. Well, they were doing everything could to keep people guilty of crimes in Australia who should have been been ascending to New Zealand. That ended up being the policy with Direction ninety nine. James dear friend of mine said, look, I get it, but I don't care and no one cares. But I don't think that's the case. Been front page news even in lefty media for some time. Do you
think people care? And do you think people will now care even more that the PM's fingers are even more in this part?
Yeah, I think this will be the undoing of the Prime Minister. Billy McMahon was always known as well. It's always been said that he was the worst prime minister this country has ever had. Well, I've got news for Billy. His family caressed easy. There is a new leader of this country that's going to take that mantle piece very quickly.
That's the truth of the matter. People have had a gutful of the fact that we are not only putting up with people from other countries coming in here and committing penous crimes at the expense of Australians, but now we're having to keep them here as well. It's not washing. They've just got to get rid of Direction ninety nine. Don't read jigg it, just get rid of it. It's that easy. Run a red market through it and get it gone well.
In the same way the Labor Party had to learn the lessons about boat turnbacks, they now have to learn their lesson about this, which is the system worked. It worked very well, no need to change it, but of course they do. Here is James Patterson on our ears speaking about all this.
The Prime Minister should take responsibility and the least he can do is Sacky's immigration minister, but he should also take personal responsibility.
Here kristin same question. Is this significant? Is this a red line being crossed? Or is this the don't care?
The bock has to stop somewhere. I think people definitely care, because it's impacting our society by keeping these criminals here. If if it was good enough for Australia's heart throbs father to get deported Dustin Martin's father to get deported back to New Zealand, I agree with James, draw a red line through it. Get rid of it.
Are you at Richmond fan? Are you are Tigers fan? And therefore not, I've got one on our team and I nothing. They can't do it. He dust Anyway, I get it. Now, let's talk about Josh, Josh, Fridenburg, James again, the redistribution, and let's not bore everyone, but basically, some things become a little more liberal, a little more green,
a little more labor. Couyong becomes a little bit more liberal, which Josh Brodenberg, if you're sitting in there thinking I could win a rematch, my suggestion is just to him as a bloke, right, which is state Goldman, Sachs earn lots of money. See what happens when it comes to the new candidate. See what happens in a couple of years time. But what's your sense in and around whether Fredenburg should return to the pub?
I never got that sense from Josh, to be honest, for all the years that we worked closely with him, when we had that balance of power within the Senate, Josh was always somebody that was in politics for the right reasons. Wasn't about the money. So you can cross that off the list here. And Mattias Corman. I'd have to say we're two of the best operators in that parliament. Now Mattis was the best, Josh was the second best.
What Peter Dutton lacks is somebody like at Josh Fredenberg behind the scenes that can actually pull the.
Liberal Party together.
Josh is more moderate than what Peter Dutton is, so he has this charm and ability. He's got a very good working relationship with both sides within the Liberals and also too with the Nationals.
Now where I see.
A problem here is Josh becomes a distraction for Peter Dutton because there's always going to be that media speculation that Josh is only coming back for the top job, because let's face it, Josh's ambitious. Of course, it was very good treasurer and I think he'd be a great fallback position as Prime Minister material as well for the country.
But it will act as a distraction.
So these are the questions that the Liberal Party will have to face, These questions that Josh will have to face as well. And like you say, is it worth an extra few years on the sideline and come back later so that there are no distractions and so that Peter Dutton can actually get in there and destroy Labor at this next.
Look, I'm going to be creative too here, Kristin, which is, if he does come back, Okay, cool, Let's just do what the Labour Party did with Bob Hawk, which was essentially run him as the opposition leader without a seat. Why not run him as the shadow treasurer without a seat to try to take on the economic conversation which clearly will be huge at the next election.
Well, selfishly, as a Victorian, what I actually want is for him to come to state politics here in Victoria, because we don't have an opposition here in Victoria. Get rid of John Persudo and put Josh Freinberg in to lead a unleadable ship at the moment, because the only opposition that we have right now is David Limbrick, and we actually need better opposition to labor machine down here.
Ken. I love that bloke, Love David limbrig and love the work that he's doing in the Upper House. I hope that at some important time you get the opportunity to join him as well. My friend, All right now, James, you think long and hard about politics, as do I ask does Kristen of course, which is about the future and where it goes. We keep being told that the future is further to the left and there'll be no further movement towards the right, all the rest of it.
Yet another giant piece of analysis comes out suggesting you pack up your bags if you're anyone but Labor or the Greens, because the future there is no vote for you.
Yeah, the Greens are a scary concept to deal with in the mere fact that they are increasing in their vote, but I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that many Australians are disappointed with the two major parties. Both Labor and the Coalition are only sort of achieving in those thirty percent targets, and that's
why the Greens seem to be growing in popularity. That's why other cross bench parties like One Nation as well have seen the LDP, the Catters, They've all seen considerable support over the last couple of years because there is that disappointment.
And yes, they do chase that Green vote.
But what people miss about the Greens is they're often hypocrites. They sit in that chamber and slag off against.
Billionaires and millionaires, and yet.
For the majority of those Greens sitting in our Senate and Lower House multiple homes. They certainly don't mind renting them out at top dollar. They want open borders. They're actually very very frightening from a communist perspective. That is the path they want to take Australia. And I think that if people open their eyes and if the media actually pushed back against the Greens on some of their policy, you'd actually see them break.
And I think it's incumbent on the media out there.
They've got to start treating the Greens as though they are a serious party, because the media, for some reason just tend to go, oh, it's just the Greens, don't worry about it. There's never any harsh questions asked of their policy.
Well, I would suggest it's because many of the people in the gallery actually vote for them. But also it's just the idea that some of the things that have been said the racial staff that they say yet labor, No, we couldn't possibly put them lower than one nation, couldn't
possibly put them last. That of course, where the liberals have to go Christian, no doubt you would think the future is libertarianism't But I'm out of time, so I'm going to ask you, what is your bold prediction for the week ahead.
Oh, it's a pretty pretty grim prediction, Paul. So national minimum wage will get announced tomorrow. I'm predicting it's going to be between a five percent and five point five percent increase, which as a libertarian and a HR professional, I will say is going to have devastating impacts on our small businesses and there will be job losses. I hope that I'm wrong, but that is, unfortunately my prediction.
That's it. I like it. I like it. I like the nerdy predictions. I love this stuff.
James, you, oh my Giles will go nowhere again this week. He's safe as houses mate, so labor will continue protecting him.
It's it's not their fault.
Remember, it's never never never. It's very trumpy and off the missing them. Thank you guys, do appreciate We'll see you again next week. Thank you very much. To appreciate it. None other than Abraham and of course James Ashby. I'm sure you follow them all on socials, Quid break Back with More, Philip Thompson about that idiot Andrew Giles, and so much more. Oh so good to be able to talk to one of our favorites in the Parliament, none of them. The Great Phil Thompson, of course, represents the
good people have heard. He's in the shadow ministry as well. Love you to see you, my friend.
Good to see you, mate.
So let's talk about Andrew Giles. Don't you love the spin out of the government. We don't make mistakes, We just do exactly the opposite of what we changed in the rules in and around immigration.
Mate.
He is a hopeless minister. I have never seen anything so incompetent in my life than watching Andrew Giles fumble around with the immigration portfolio. And as we saw last week, you had the Prime Minister throw a hospital pass and put him straight under the bus. He is not fit to be a minister. He's not fit to represent the
immigration portfolio. And if the Prime Minister is not going to sack him, then the minister should stand up tomorrow morning and resign because he is putting people in the community at risk.
What about this garbage that he says, Oh, no, we've been keeping people safe. Sure we don't put ankle bracelets on them, but we've got drones flying around to take photos of whether they're in the backyard or not.
Yeah, and we've heard from that being debunked already. We know that this minister has no idea what's going on in his portfolio. He's released all these hardened criminals. There's pedophiles walking the street, murderers and rapers, and instead of kicking them out of the country or locking them back up. Remember we got recalled at the end of last year to pass emergency powers so we could prevent it, lock people up and keep them detained so we didn't have
them walking around the street. But none of that's been an actor. None of that's happened. It was all smoke and mirrors. And if you have these dangerous criminals walking around where you live, where I live, where people in the community, going to parks where kids are playing, and they're not being monitored, these are dangers to our society. And for him to stand up and try and get all tough in Parliament and say I'm doing what the letter of the law, and he makes all this stuff
up and it's not truthful. He should just stand up and say I'm sorry for what has happened. It is his fault and he should resign and the Prime Minister should find where his backbone isn't sack him, and if he's not willing to do it, then maybe he should have the top job.
I'm with you completely. Let's talk about China, because today the Defense Ministar, after a meeting in Singapore, says, I definitely talk to the Chinese about the stuff they've been doing, particularly the helicopters. But come on, let's also deal with the reality that last week. The only reason we're hearing all of this stuff now is because they got caught red handed that despite speaking to every possible level, they
didn't actually bother to pick up the phone. Do you believe that there was any sort of verbal pull out of China in Singapore by Richard Miles.
I think Richard Miles has failed the Australian Defense Force. The deputy Prime Minister, part time Defense Force minister, has failed on two different occasions. The first one when we had navy divers in the water in a Chinese ship use sonar which injured our people. He didn't do anything, then didn't stand up, didn't stand behind him, didn't back them up and called China out for their bad behavior.
And then only a couple of days later the Prime Minister met with Jijiping and he didn't raise it either. And then fast forward a couple of months, we've got a fighter jet, a Chinese fighter jet, firing flares at an Australian Navy helicopter. If one of those flares hit our helicopter, the experts have said that they may have had to ditch the airframe. Now, if you have to ditch an airframe over water, two things happen. It goes upside down quickly and it sinks at six meters second,
So people were in Harmsuan could have been killed. Now did we see the deputy Prime Minister and part time Defense Minister stand up and call out jiujimp or call out the defense Minister.
No, he didn't.
He ran and hid.
It's been twenty seven days since this incident. We've had the leader of the opposition have to stand up and call this out. We've had Andrew Hasty, the shadow Defense Minister, and myself as his deputy, have to call this out. We haven't seen him anywhere. And Mate, we heard that he was going to give this speech because he briefed.
Out the media.
He probably briefed out his mates in China.
He's got form for that.
I don't think that this was real at all, And to be honest, he should have done it twenty seven days ago.
One hundred percent. God, I love you. So this is exactly what we need, right, This is the steal in the spine. We really need people like Andrew and people like Phil on the side of defense, not this bloke, this being the defense minister roll the tape.
We really want to have the most productive relationship that we can have with China.
We want to be.
Sensible, professional, respectful. We definitely do not want to, you know, gratuitously antagonize China. That's not what we're trying to do. But at the same time, it is important that we speak to our national interests.
Philip's the yabba yaba that does me. Look, I get it, nobody wants to antagonize a country like China, but if they're going to almost kill our people, yeah, we're going to stand up.
Correct, correct.
And I think that the defenseman is a coward. I remember hearing just a couple of weeks ago when something similar as asked of him and he said, oh, well, we'll agree where we can and disagree where we must. Oh well, thanks genius, you really put the faith in me and every other servicemen and women in the country that you're the right person for the job. He clearly isn't, and I think he hates his portfolio. He's too worried about, you know, playing the back no One on the golf course.
Then he is about standing up for our brave men and women who put.
On the interfal Ye bloody. Thank you Philip. Nice to talk to you mate. All the best to you in Camber this week and then back in beautiful Townsville next week. All the best, mate, Thanks, thank you Philip Thompson there because of course the Assistant Shadow Defense Minister, along with many other things. But a very good man and very pleas he's in their parliament. All right, that's our show for tonight. The Royal Report coming up in a moment
or two time. Thank you very much for watching. The conversation continues and if you want to see me emails at any time, you know, Paulitskynews dot com dot you see you tomorrow.