From the Skying Center.
This is Paul Murray Live.
Thank you, gang, Welcome to Sunday Night here on pul Murray Live. One for the hard Cause, one where we are going to get.
Right into it Tonight.
Sunday Nights is where we have a look at the state of the race.
Now obviously the election ain't called, but we have to look at what's going around. In a moment or two, I'm going to give you some real insight into who is playing the strongest hand when it comes to the online world. But tonight, as always, we have Kossa Marris will join us from Redbridge.
There.
The people have got lots of data behind the data and the great Michael Kroger also no sook snow lefties. So we're just firing up. So thank you so much for watching. All right, obviously, let's keep an eye on what's happening with our mates in North Queensland, because tropical North Queensland is copying a bathering. I told you last week about how that region had actually already received on one day in some areas, one entire meter of water in the past twenty four hours. Let's have a look here.
The darker it gets, the heavy the rain. Unsurprisingly, Townsville a little higher, a little lower. That's where it is all whacking away as we speak. That's more than one hundred mills in the past sort of nine am to nine am. So obviously the numbers for today are going to be terrible. Lots of people having to deal with this. I've got family in Townsville. You know how often we've done shows from there, So strength and love to everyone who's dealing with this again.
Let's hope that everyone's.
Following the advice of the sees, all the different volunteers, Emergency Services Council, all the rest of it. Here in a moment or two, we're going to have a chat to a reporter who is there, because I want you to know what's going on and whom needs to be leaving their hosts a house and for those what the next of the wall is going to be. But here's the latest that we've heard today from the Queensland Police.
There will be impacts to critical infrastructures such as power, water and water treatment. If you are being asked to leave your premise in Townsville, please do so because it is really dangerous for you, your family and the emergency services if we need to come back and rescue you very much.
So for the people that are doing the hard graft, the many thousands of people who have had this experience before when it was different water coming from different places, but tropical weather. We know this to be part of summer, but for it to be a big hit like this, I mean a meter's worth of rain in one day, that is the expectation of these twenty four hours, on top of the ones that had been there prior. This is some of their reaction to what they're going through
right now. Now Again, we know it's a Townsville, a little further north, little further south, little touch in and around Kansas well, So while the focus might be for us in Townsville, I get it. You know, an hour ring over in Charters towers, all sorts of stuff is happening around this part of our beautiful country, and you know how much I love it.
Two young children, we've got a third on the way, and it's just more about protecting the kids.
So we've decided to take them over to your mother in law's house.
Just a bit disappointing thinking here it was only five years ago and here we are again doing it all over again exactly max in intermational But I'm just hoping for the best guys again.
Strength and love to everyone again the family that will hear this message.
All the best to you guys for the next little while. As world.
We'll check all in on you again during the day tomorrow. Scott on his weather. We'll now explain exactly what is going on. Yes, it's summer, Yes there's tropical rain, Yes there's wet seasons.
But why is this so much right now?
It's a huge amount of rain, three to six months worth for this time of year, even for the wet tropics of Queensland. In it the wet season. Now the forecast from Sunday night into Monday shows the monsoon trough. This is that white dash line and the winds coming it together. So this is leading it to a very slow moving region of persistent heavy rain.
All right, so hold on tight, we'll give you more information. We'll go live to Townsville in a moment or two time as well as have we got the state of the race. So cute little games being played by the man who thinks he can slip through his way to another term in parliament. Why because all those tea going to be in place, nobody's going to change their mind. I'm the one with more people who love me on
the internet. More on that in the moment now the Prime Minister is playing a ridiculous game where a piece of legislation which was introduced by his government based off a report which was compiled for his government, is trying now to pretend that the nature positive mess. That would be something like the Heritage Orders in Western Australia, where indigenous heritage meant you had to get somebody else to double check whether you could do the smallest or the
biggest thing to the place of which you own. This time, rather than indigenous heritage, it would be all around environmental impacts. Well, they say that, oh, this piece of legislation is apparently gone, but is it. The Premiere of Western Australia has made it very clear he does not want this anywhere near what looks to be a re elected labor government in Western Australia.
I don't say that because I like it.
You know.
My thoughts on Roger Cook, particularly his performance during the pandemic, that poor little girl who died in the hospitals. The idea that he gets rewarded in any way. Not a fan,
but it is where it is in the book. He seemed to believe that they're going to remain in government, but something as bad as the heritage laws which they introduced by the way at the State Parliament, that they pulled because of its potential effects not just on the government but also on the Voice a couple of years ago. They don't want this thing anywhere near Western Australia. In fact, they've referred to the lat sippers that are pushing this thing.
These are the Greens or the Labour people who should be Greens who want a stronger environmental cop Now we've seen in places like Queensland the absurdity of things like land clearing laws.
I remember being in.
Rockhampton for beef work a few years ago and people were red hot.
This is their land. They know how best to take care of.
It because breaking news, breaking news to the sharehouse kids.
If they ruin their land, they ruin their business.
So they want to take care of their land by maybe clearing a tree here, clearing a tree there, because either it's so close to the house that if there's a storm it'll crush their house, or they.
Want to get rid of the crap so they can expand a paddock.
I know, crazy stuff, crazy stuff, but a new Environmental Protection Authority which always sounds.
Lovely and you think about you know, clean air and clean.
Water, but all of those rules already exist.
Instead a federal level of bureaucracy that is so red hot that even a labor premier themselves say not on our watch. Business groups have joined the same call. Over the past couple of days. The Business Council of Australia has said, shell this thing, get rid of it, don't go back, don't touch it. In fact, the boss of the BCA, brand Black, I think we've got a photo of him here.
This is what he.
Said to The Australian this weekend, that they urge the government to shelve the legislation after the election, then work with all the stakeholders to undertake a holistic reform of the Environmental Protection Act in line with the review which had been put in place. Now that's relatively soft criticism compared to what was happening with the Western Australian premiere.
But I'm talking about this because guess what each way albow saying one thing before an election and most likely you will get something very different after don't wake up and winge, don't tell me in two years. Jeez, I wish we knew about We've been banging on about this for months, months, and no matter their attempt to change the subject. If the Greens are the tale that wags the dog due to preferences and the cross bench, this comes back.
In fact, have a.
Look at this, despite the fact that the spin today from Taxpayer Media was that Labor has shelved its contentious nature positive laws, suggesting that in any interview with The Conversation's Politics podcast, the Prime Minister has conceded he couldn't seek to path the success for the reform, so at this stage I can say we won't be proceeding with it in this term, adding the Government.
Would continue to discuss the issue during the.
Next term of parliament. So is everyone paying attention? The law is not dead. It isn't really even in deep freeze.
The Prime Minister is simply removing it from the West Australian election right now, removing it from the federal election right now, with an absolute plan to reintroduce it with what he believes will be more favorable numbers in the Senate, or if he's in a minority government, there'll be a wilder version of it because potentially Victorian Teals and certainly the Greens where they will want it to be even bigger, even louder.
Pay attention.
How you vote matters, you know that, But where your preferences go also matter. If preferences are the same way they were back in twenty nineteen, then surprise result may be on the carts. If it's bugging them all and you want to send the preference out for a long wander, then guess what you're most likely going to end up with, either the government we currently have or a reduced version of it at the next election. We'll talk plenty more about this, and others will pretend that they have always
fought the fight. You know how long we've been talking about it. I look forward to talking about it, specifically with James Ashby, who was the first to talk about it here on Paul Murray Live, many.
Many, many, many, many many months ago. The first ads of the election year are up and running.
Now. Most of these will end up on the Internet, but we show them to you just in case they pop up on your television. Here is the first ad from the Libs.
The right decisions aren't always popular, but I'm not interested in taking me as you pass because we live in the best country in the world and I'm determined to get Australia back on track.
And today the first ads from the Labor Party, and they are going full time.
Every little bit helps. But look who was opposed to every single.
One of them.
Whichever way you look at it, you'll be worse off under done.
This makes my blood boil.
And because they're in first, then any attempt to use any form of that language will be considered copycat. The idea don't vote for the other guy because it's going to be worse. Right now, we remember this was a failing way of running an election three years ago with not easy under alb and easy.
But things have got worse on his watch.
Oh well, potentially they're ever so slightly better, mate.
Look at a scoreboard.
Okay, twelve interest rate rises on their watch, living standards that are back to the nineteen forties nineteen forty nine, specifically, the value of the Australian dollar in trouble, three point four million people who don't know where their food is coming from, each and every week. That's food insecurity, not to mention record homelessness. Throw on top of that, how expensive the rental market is, how few properties there are
in the rental market. Yet this government is the one who has decided to bring in more than a million people to every single one of those lines. What absolute garbage for the government to be arguing that despite the fact that their promise was and.
I love have it, no one's going to have a hold on a littleccount for this I will.
Their promise was twenty twenty two cost of living lower under a labor government. That was their promise, that's before they came in.
Instead, all of it worse.
Oh but don't get rid of us because the other guy will make it even worse. What a bizarre sort of Jedi mind trick attempt at trying to gaslight the Australian people. The reason I show you those ads is because obviously in a couple of minutes we're gonna have a chat with the lads to have a.
Look at the state of the race, the state of the ads.
What message is potentially out there to move the people that are kind of soft, the undecideds, which depending on a poll could be five percent, or it could be thirty percent.
All of that up for grabs.
But the reality is that Australia as a federal government, despite the fact that it is taking on more revenue than it's ever taken on before.
Number one source of that revenue.
You You the person who is the payers.
You go taxpayer.
They pay collectively more than the entirety of company tax, the multiples of the entirety of the amount of money out of the GST. And as a result of decisions that have been made by this government, they have locked in a deal where they will be spending more than the money that they will.
Be taking in. And it's not me making it up.
It's their own document, its generational Report released a couple of years ago by the Treasurer. I think that was the same budget where they took fifteen hundred dollars as the load of middle income tax offset of ten million voters.
Oh you know, cost living, total focus.
That's the one where budget deficits from now for the next forty years.
Say look the next forty years. That is the expectation.
Oh it, it's ever so slightly better, and then it gets really bad. You know, the deal here right, there's only so many times you can put money into the never never. Well, this is the never never, kids, and this is the stuff that's just in the budget, little one, the tens of billion dollars that's being invested off budget.
So there is pressure on the opposition not just to make the most of this politically, and they are generally hovering around the right spot, which is they need to rain in how much money is being spent by the federal government. Now, of course this will be instantly interpreted in the way the Labor Party always does, which is, look, I'm going to give you a dollar now, but I
promise to give you ten in five years time. And then the loops come in and say, okay, you can keep your dollar, but we're not going to give you ten in five years time. Cut nine dollar cut is on its way to money you've never got.
It's just a made up promise from apology into the neven.
Ever.
Well, Peter Dutton, talking about spending, did so today again on taxpayer.
Telling if we find wasteful spending, our intent is to cut it and that will result in obviously an overall reduction in government expenditure. And if you're saving twenty four billion dollars plus over the forward estimates with.
The public servants.
That's money that you can either use to pay off debt or you can use to put downward pressure on inflation.
Now that's it those of us that would like this fight to be as close as possible.
Coming down to the last counting on the night in Western Australia to decide exactly what type of government we're going to get. Is it going to be Team Read with a majority, Team Read with a minority, Team Blue with a minority, Team Blue with a majority. There are predictions out there for all of those options. The bookies think that that will end up going a Team Blue's way. But they decided to not name a huge amount of specifics about the areas that they are going to pull
back on. Why because they want will avoid this cut cut cut cut cut staff that the Labor Party is expecting to launch as its attack on the alternative Prime minister.
The problem is when you say this.
We need to sit down and look through an erc process, which would.
Be the normal course of things.
Will do that in government.
Everything will be interpreted by the Labor Party as being on the table. Remember the nonsense they did with medi scare. The entire actual factual basis of medi scare was that an option had been written down on paper by the bureaucrats about some back office staff and efficiencies that's privatizing.
They had a whole election campaign about it.
Imagine what they might be able to do with a verbal blank check that's being suggested there. Now, I know that Peter Dutton, when laser like and when on message, he wins.
Why did you see what happened with the voice.
Australians believe always that when their personal circumstances are as difficult as they are right now, that the government should be feeling the same sort of difficult financial circumstances that they are. So there is absolute strong area here and just sit in amper gymper price. It is her job, of course, to be across all of this and to
start serving up some examples. Serve up some examples. Do one a week, do three a week, But just keep pounding away, because if you have lots and lots of those little examples, well it's going to help narrow the picture. And that, of course is what we will be discussing a little later tonight. Lots of data details and all the rest of it will be following. But let's get two.
What is happening right now in North Queensland. And Lauren Forbes joins us now from mighty Townsville, which is yet again copying it, this time with almost a meter.
Worth of rain.
She is safely away from it right now, but looking like she's in one of the main drags there right now, Lauren, give us an idea of how the town's holding up and what may be happening tonight.
Well, Paul, roads have turned into rivers and floodwaters have swallowed streets, cutting off entire communities at some points today now here in Townsville, it seems like waters have begun receding this afternoon, but it's giving a sense of false relief. The danger still remains. There's more relentless rain on the way in the coming days, and we could see rain
totals of up to a meter all the way until Wednesday. Now, that's why at least six areas, six local communities in low lying areas here in Townsville have been put under an evacuation order that's in place as of midday. Now we'll get those areas up on the screen. It includes Cludon, Hermit Park, Idailya and Nunabar Railway Estate and ross Lee.
Now as we go to Air Paul, I just received a text message from the emergency management team that's been run out of the city Council says that we shouldn't return to the area, which suggests that some people may be considering that as they see these waters slowly received but it is low tide typically at nighttime here in North Queensland. Now police have spent the couple few days door knocking the area warning residents of these potentially life
threatening floods. Now up to one thousand and seven hundred homes could potentially be inundated and go under these waters. Now further north here from Townhill in Ingham, that's where tragedy really unfolded this morning an Sees vessel it went under with us. At least six passengers on board. Five were located safe, but tragically a woman has died. Now Premier David chris of fully has expressed his deepest condolences
and obviously they're that tight community. That tight community is also raveling from this tragedy.
There has been the loss of life in floodwaters in Ingham and that's a really tight knit community and our thoughts and prayers are with the family.
Now, as you mentioned before, Paul, some areas have copped up to eight hundred millimeters of rain, that is nearly a meter of rain. Now it's not just impacting the floodwaters here at supermarkets across towns Will Supermarket at the shelves in supermarkets are empty. More than eight thousand propies are also impacted. They're left without power and as well as Townsville Airport it's been closed down earlier today around midday.
Now that's stopping inbound and outbound flights today and tomorrow. Now, Flood Assistance has assistance money has also been activated. That's one hundred and eighty dollars for people who've had to flee due to these evacuation orders, as well as nine hundred dollars for families of five or more.
We are already rolling out assistant to people affected by these natural disasters, and if and when more assistance is necessary, we will be there for you as well.
But Paul, obviously, right now survival is the priority. Rivers are still rising and there is more relentless rain in this area. On the cards. Authorities are advising locals to please seek higher ground while they still can.
Good on you, Lauren, thank you so much. It's been a long day.
I want to make sure that you can get the bed recharge, be there for Pete in the morning and give the latest infato everyone in that part of the world enjoy, well, not enjoy, but to make the most of the time.
Thank you, Lauren, appreciate it. If my Townsville memory is correct.
She's not too far right now from Cowboys Leagues Club. All right, let's get into the conversation right now with Coas Samaras, who is joining us as part of this conversation each and every week about the state of the race.
He is, of course from the red Bridge Group.
Their work is phenomenal, honestly, like they put out a pole every few months, so detailed, right, and like he's a proper data guy, like I'm the amateur data guy Okay's and the information they have spectacular. Him and Simon, great team with everyone else there. And Michael Kroger, well he knows the data like at the.
Back of his hand.
He's been through many many an election and he joins us from.
Melbourne as well, So too many let us start with where I have already brought the audience, and that is about the advertising. The very first ads. Now this is not the definitive ad. There will be multiple versions, the all Good Book of Music, the Black and White, the cut, cut cut, all of that that's coming its way. Okay, But as first and opening salvos here, Michael, don't the lips have to hit harder? Or is the assumption that that argument's been made already to the people who are
off the government. So we're now trying to get into specifically demo thirty five to fifty five year old women, who of course help impart prop up the teals.
So the liberal add is a traditional positioning.
Out of its leader. They're not well being addeds.
They reinforce pre existing impressions, which is what advertising does. You can't start an election campaign with something which no one believes, right, You've got three or four years to position your party, which is what Dutton's done, and an advertising campaign during election will reinforce a pre existing impression. Now, the terrible thing about that labor ad I think it's a chakra. And I'll tell you why thirty percent of
the country think we're going in the right direction. Sixty percent overwhelmingly Australians think Australia is going in the wrong direction. You look at that labor ad there saying you know, Dutton's voted all against all these things. What you're saying to people is, we know you think things are shocking already, but they're going to be worse under Dutton.
Shock.
He's going to bring the fuel.
Yeah, the he's on fire, He'll bring the fuel.
People look at that out and go, you've got to be kidding him, mate, You've done a shocking job. Don't sit there and tell me that this bloke's going to be worse. What are you going to do to fix the mess you've got us in?
Right?
That's why that ad won't work. It's a wrong negative aut at this time.
Yeah, a giggle because they've decided to sort of add in the bit of the AI shading, making it look like some sort of prison I don't know what they're they're trying to sigilimly hit. But let's not play that one. So because obviously, you know, I'm an opinion guy. Mine's fairly obvious here. But let's look at the labor side of things, right, I mean, every focus group every piece of information. There was a poll last year that what's seventy something percent of people they could name a single
thing that financially benefited them under this government. So what is Labor playing on about? Look, we know it's garbage, but it'll be worse under the other. Don't they blame them for what it's currently like.
Look, having tested a lot of these sort of ads over many years in the research capacity, one thing I can say is that ad looks like it's actually focused on their base. So if you think about what's going on right now, there are dozens of seats in play, but they're ever so tight.
Everything is within the margin of.
Error and driving that real volatility within within Labour's electorates is Labour's own base. So based on our research, for example, up to fifty five percent of its boat is soft wow. So that is actually pitched to the diehards. It's not pitched to the people that they want to secure in Northern Queensland or in other electorates which they don't currently occupied. This is purely a defensive advertisement and so if you were to ask me, does it work beyond that?
Absolutely not.
Upfacet to these sort of ads before that don't work.
Yeah, and I would suggest the same about the narrative. You know, look, surprise and price they're going to put together that I'm a good blowadd let's get to let's can we get ahead of the inevitable media conversation around a rate cut? Now I get it rate cut better
than rate increase. But when the financial pressure has been thirteen interest rate riser since May twenty two, dare I say the metaphorical sort of pressure is so tight that that you know, thirty percent of the country trying to pay off a house is right being a purple right now? I don't know they're going to be dancing because the pressure of thirteen becomes the pressure of twelve. Cause is there a free piece of advice you'd like to give to those that will say all.
Over cost of living's done?
Let's change the subject back to the ones that we know are going to help the mob that we love.
Strong bit of advice I've given the labor side is if a rad cut does occur, language should be we know Australians have actually been suffering. This rate cut is a result of all they're hard work. Because when we speaks about this and we did so last week and particularly in Western Sydney, we asked them, what do you think about conversation right now in the media around inflation coming down and a possibility of a rate cup. Do you think that's a good news for the Ambanizi government.
Their response, which was uniform, No, we've paid for this. Yes, our own misery right, and so my strong advice to them will be not our plan is working. Know you've actually been through tough times. We're going to stand next to you. We have a long journey ahead of a stick with us.
That will be my advice to And then conversely, Michael the Liberal Party pushing back on all of that, You know that many people sitting around in the room they're going to want to interpret this as mission accomplished. In fact, I couldn't believe one of the TV networks actually did mission accomplished late last year when the headline number was sort of getting near it.
Please we all know.
And this is the fundamental disconnect between say the end part of the Biden Harris campaign, which is you can tell people the latest stat says this. They they've felt reality, which is not made up, it's their live reality. Helps say okay, you're full of it. If you keep saying it to you, I'm going to stop listening. If there is a rate cut, how do the Libs play a rate cut?
M Yeah, mission accompliss sounds of it like George w doesn't.
It it does?
You were correct?
So mate, people are not mugs, all right, And as Richo says, the mob will always work you out. The Australian public believes that this crisis that we're in at the minute is principally because of the Alberanzi government, and the reason they feel so they're so hard on the Albenzi government is that in the lead up to the twenty two election, he said it's all Morrison's fault, we can fix it, and there's two hundred and seventy five dollars,
et cetera, et cetera. Right, So part of their problem is they went too hard, right they said what Menji said? Menji said, never never promised beyond your capacity to deliver. This mob went so hard against Scott Morrison and Josh Friedenberg. So hard were that two hundred and seventy five dollars, which they repeated one hundreds of times. As we know and we've seen add fornidem they led people to believe
this is a crisis credded by Scott Morrison. So people come into the current environment thinking themselves, we were conned at the last election. That's the biggest problem Labour's got right. People feel they were conned by Albanezi and Bowen and Charmers and the rest of them. That's one of the reasons they're so angry at Labor over what is happening now, and which is why a rate cut will marginally help labor. Of course, because of some people will believe that we're
on the way to utopia. But for the vast majority of Australians, they've got a predetermined view about Albo and that is that album misled them with the last election.
Of course, how many people do think like that? In your focus scripts, yeah.
I wouldn't say the word.
I wouldn't say they feel calmed. I would say that they feel let down, right, and so what they wanted from this federal government was a stronger response during twenty twenty three as those interest.
Rates were piling in on them.
That's where Albanesi and his government got into a lot of hot water. So they basically accrue during that referendum view a lot of empathy deficit, so a lot of Austrangers feel like they didn't care because I'll preoccupy with other things other than the crisis that everyone was experiencing their own home. So that's what's really going on. I mean, at the beginning of the winning of the term, they
were doing pretty well. Polls were great, they won the aston by election, you know, unheard of in terms of a result, so they kind of like they was willing to give this guy a bit of a go. So you know, that empathy difference is yet to be fixed. Hence my previous comment, which is they've got to use language that is sympathetic to what Australians have experienced.
I haven't put this on the agenda, but I know you both can take this one on the flight, which is okay. So at this moment in time, we've seen a little idea of some of the strategy here, right, which is the Dunton's trying to keep it to big themes basically, you know, trying to bond across the waters with the general mainstream Australia.
Right.
Albo is trying to do the same, but also has literally made promiseses tens of billions of dollars in the month of January, and basically it's been that traditional ladies and gentlemen welcome here to this line, the event here and now are the government here by announces a million dollars for this. It doesn't play outside of frankly, the people in the room, probably not even at times some of the locals.
That it's targeted at.
So because as somebody trying to come back from that empathy deficit, if the largest thing you're going to do each and every day seems to be the same kind of localized money money, money promises, even if it's you know, they turn around to one thousand dollars for everyone.
Is there a point in a government's life.
And we're sure, I'll take the money, but I don't care any more power and just buying it's not going to work.
We have a preview Queensland State election. Correct, So the Queensland State government they basically fry money or or around the place, trying and basically givince people to actually care about it costly in crisis. It didn't work. It may have helped them in a couple of seats, but it didn't help the overall movement against them. The problem that I think right now the government got is that it's unlikely they're going to be able to hold onto their majority.
They are now playing a game of trying to keep enough sets on this side allegic to for minority government. Dunton still has a mountain of climb to get to seventy six is an enormous mountain to overcome at the moment I see the numbers therefore, and they actually get into seventy six, So we're going to be in for a long ride here.
Yeah, and certainly again Western Australia.
You know, plenty of chat about what's going to happen there, and that means long night for everyone and all their TV counting and all the rest of it. Great for everyone watching because I know how much you want to see what's going to happen here. But Michael, we've talked before about the mountain, about how high the climb is, all the rest of it. Right, But if we're in a scenario and a few people talk to me about this over the weekend, now again we're in the world
of hypothesis. But welcome to the joy of a talk t V show. If we all knew, we'd all have entered lotto last week. But let's imagine if they both land very close to seventy right, one up, one down, but basically banging there. If you have a look at the potential cross bench, it's center left, not center right, and we.
Can say, oh, well the teal's formally but they've just been re elected, right Wilkie.
You know, yes, there's a sharky who always turns around and says, whoever has the most seats gets the first call.
We know Kada would be theoretically of that space.
But if it's basically dead even at the end, doesn't Albo start in front because of the likely lefty lean of the cross bench where a re elected Victorian teal, I couldn't imagine them taking greater pleasure than an up yours to the bloke from Queensland.
Yeah, that's right.
By the way Couse uses the word let down, I use the word conned. I think it leads to the same conclusion, which is people are very disappointed in the government. Leads to the same conclusion. So mate, that's fantasy. Let me just put this in context. The betting markets have Albanezi a six percent chance of winning government in.
His own right six six. So Albo says, I'm going to win governor in my own right.
No, there's zero chance, Albow, of you winning in your own right, mate, zero. So it's not going to be seventy each. I think Dutton's on seventy two and I think Albo's probably on sixty seven.
At the minute.
There's thirteen seats that I've got en doubt in New South Wales in Victoria, and these are seats of four, five, six, seven percent. And as you know, the labor voter who's collapsed in Victoria princely because of the appalling state Labor government, secondly because of the appalling performance of Elbow. So Dutton is going to start ahead of Albow. And the question is can he get from seventy two to seventy six With the expected cross bench he can get to seventy
six and become Prime minister. But I think there's also a very good chance now that that Dutton can win his own right. So I think things seem to be going south continually for Albou. We're now February, right, I mean Albou has been bashing Peter Dutton and the Coalition for six months.
They're spitting their wheels.
You know, they're in one of those cycling classes in the gym. They're going hard mate, but the bike ain't going anywhere except backwards.
Right.
The antisemitism in this country is causing them huge damage. You know, I've got a lot of friends in the Indian community in Australia here in Victoria.
They hate this stuff. They hate this stuff.
All the migrant communities have come to this country think it can be the Jews one day and us the next day. They are appalled by what's happening. That's why there's a shy Dutton voter effect in this country. It's not directed against men's in New South Wales, who's done an excellent job, I might add. And when Chris Minn speaks Paul, you know he believes what he's saying. When Albo speaks about anti Semitism, no one believes a word. This bloke says he never been to a bar Mits
Fro until two weeks ago. He hasn't been to israelph for twenty five years. He sends Penny Wong to Auschwitzman. Everything this guy does, you know, he wouldn't call it James Patterson and Sarah Henderson. Let's have an Let's have a judicial inquiry. The two lib will send it us to Victoria. So let's have a judicial inquiry to anti Semitis on campus. Who could disagree with that except elbow Albert said, no, no, we're not having an inquiry to Andy seven on campus. If anything tells you this guy's
not sympathetic the Jewish community. That does, and this plays out through the whole migrant communities in this country. That's why there's a shy Dutton voter effect that that polsters cannot pick.
Up my prediction. They'll announce some sort of an inquiry, but it'll take probably about four weeks to pick the people who will be on it, which would mean after the election. Lads, let's talk again next week. Thank you for your insights, so we'll have even more to say next week.
I really appreciate it.
Thanks.
Right now, let's get the Noseoks no Lefties, which is the debate portion of the program. If you would like to join us, firstly, you kinda watching, which I appreciate, but you can participate.
You can I send you an email.
Politics Godnews dot com dot au talked in.
Forgive me for being personal, but you know, I try to be the most honest person on telling. By that, I mean I'll tell you what's actually going on in my life. I'll tell you what's going on off the screen. I don't you know, ring the new paper or alerts new idea. I tell you because you watched the show. I had an amazing day today with the Murray half of our family and it was awesome to see everyone.
I'm not going to do the shout out that will take about four and a half hours, but it was amazing to see, you know, my little girl playing with my cousins that.
It was really cool. The point is this family is awesome. Family is all that matters. So whatever issues.
There may be in your family, and every family has issues, including ours, right resolve it, get past it, say sorry, even if you don't remember what you say sorry for, and just enjoy being around each other because it is honestly all that matters.
All right.
And you know, sadly Gran's no longer here to be part of it, but in her.
Spirit, we were together. It was awesome to see everyone today.
All right, let's get into the chat with Holly Hughes. Is just the apple of everyone in her family's. Of course, it's the senator at the bloke who I'm sure has stirred up plenty of trouble at a Raleigh Abash, none other than the great James Ashby from one nation. I appreciate it that, certainly the tectonic plates are the political tectonic plates of our family.
We just avoid, all right, we just avoid.
We'd avoid anyone's last name, even starting with Tea.
All right, do we just get around it? And we moved through and were focused on how are your kids anyway?
Now, Holly Pty one's going hard about who knew what and when in and around the caravan and the explosives and where it was going and exactly who knew what and when.
Here is part of what the alternative prime minister has had to.
Say about when the Prime minister knew, if at all.
If the Prime Minister of our country is not across what was potentially the biggest terrorist attack in our country's history essentially until the public found out about it, I think that is an absolute abrogation of his responsibility. And we do, I think deserve to hear the answers.
Okay, so what is the connection how do you see the leap between the News of Wales Police the Prime Minister. We know what the potential of this was, but do you think that the PM should have been looped in and if he wasn't, is that not part of the problem as to how we even knew about this story in the first place. There are some problems with the Fed state relationship.
Oh look, and I.
Think it's what's really fighting is It shows that there's a lack of trust between the New South Wales Police, the New South Wales Premier impossibly the Australian Federal Police and mister Albinezi in his office and the fact that they were trying to.
Conduct covert operation.
I got a phone call from a friend though this week whose sister lives up in Durall and one of those big acreages.
And he was saying that she told him about.
The caravan with explosives in it a couple of weeks ago, and that all of Durall seemed to know that this caravan had been dump So it seems like mister Alberezi is the only one in a lot of ways that.
Was out of the loop.
It's a very serious matter though to think that the Prime minis staff, who would need to call a terrorist attack if that was to occur, was kept out of the loop.
I think there's a lot of explaining to do.
And why did Chris Means think that the Prime Minister should not have been told about these? And I think there could be some really interesting background to that.
Yeah, I mean, James, my suggestion was that again my guess just we're going off some body language here, Okay, in science, it's all got and we know I've got plenty of that, which is remember when the Prime Minister turned up after the childcare fire, and he did so before nine o'clock was really early, and generally speaking, again the timeframe of these things, the event takes place in the mornings, the emergency response, a couple of hours, someone
says something, probably in the afternoon, someone's visiting. When you're doing it before nine o'clock, obviously you want to get on telling all the rest of it here, But that to me, when you line up all the dates here is a couple of days after the discovery, So potentially there is some level of information that goes it's happened, right, So what's your sense about what we need to know do you think this is a thing that goes all week or does the Prime Minister kind of wave his
hands and say, you know on board on c matters will not be discussed.
Well, firstly, I don't believe the Prime Minister was kept in the dark over this matter. I think that being the leader of a nation where the government have set the terrorism level at probable, which means Australia is likely to face a chance of a terrorism attack over the next twelve months, it's a greater chance than fifty percent. This is one that's been foiled in this instance. But the Prime Minister would have been brought up to speed
as soon as this was first discovered. So I don't believe for a second that the Prime Minister was unaware, let alone half of that front cabinet of this Labor Party. Secondly, I think national security is the responsibility of every Australian
and particularly when we do have that probable level. And I put it this way, so if we had a high fire threat around our community and we knew that there was a firebug on the loose, you would expect that the police and Fire Department and the media would let the public know to keep an eye out for somebody that's running around lighting fires. In this instance, we should be letting as many people within the public know of exactly what's happening. We know that our state and
federal police are underresourced. We know that asier I've only got two thousand officers in this country.
They're trying to build their numbers.
But when they're so underresourced already, and they've got so many other distractions out there, domestic violence and other issues that they've got to contend with, we should be bringing not just our Prime Minister and our opposition and all parliamentarians up to speed on what's going on with any terrorism threat, but I think also to the public deserve to know exactly what is happening.
Yeah, I think the bushfire analogy really interesting.
The Transport minister in New South Wales now some of my mates are involved in this, but it's not going to save the Transport minister from the chat she's about the cop, which is she decides to go Hunter Valley, get on the Cans Australia day right, fine her business, but taxpayer driver up, taxpayer driver back, which means seven hundred and fifty dollars. Now, obviously disgraceful, no question whatsoever.
But I'm going to come at it this way with you, Hollie, which is she has only been a minister for what was it, March last year. This is not a person who's been a minister for fifteen years. Okay, it's still relatively new. The fresh smell in the car. Why would you do something that stupid? Why would you not know that it is so obviously not your entitlement that you're going to get caught.
Well, I think it's extraordinary. This isn't her first slipper.
You know, Joe Halen was Anthony Albanesi's deputy chief of staff, so perhaps she learned the love of.
A freebie in a giveaway.
But you know, she got in trouble when she first got elected because she'd employed someone as a d loo which is supposed to be a non political role in her office, who'd run a state campaign in Balmain, who was a labor operative that got in trouble for doing party political work in her ministerial office.
This is the woman who.
Merely ground Sydney to a halt over New Year, leading to a potential cancelation of fireworks because of credibility to handle the train union and the pay dispute there.
This woman is an embarrassment to Chris Min's and.
You know, whether this is three strikes, you're out, it shows an incredible lack of self awareness. I mean, it's something to be said for some of these labor ministers that when they get into the treasury benches that snout goes in the trough and it doesn't come up for air terribly often. This is an appalling lack of judgment in a cost of living crisis, to think that they could be chauffeur driven around wineries in the Hunter Valley
from her holiday house. Well, so many Australians are trying to put groceries on the table and keep the lights on. It's just, I mean, it's a bad call. It's an admission she was wrong when she said that she'll pay the money back. And I know Rose Jackson's are made of this show, but you know she was in that car and she would have known it was a government driver as well, and I think there's some responsibility for her to take as well she is.
And hence I'm not going to jump in front of the bullet on the obvious here, but yeah, it is ridiculous.
It truly is. James.
You get a response to a second speaking of keeping the lights on. We do that by paying the bills. It ain't taxpayer, Telly. So thank you for watching more in a moment here on Paul Marriey Live, including bold predictions for the week you had one.
A second, hey, you.
Let us continue the conversation.
I told you I was going to meet Jobie here and with none other than James has to be in Holly Hughes See, Wendy, you know you don't see you know, sunrise come back like that.
Don't need this show hat.
You just see what's doing all right, We're just hanging out to Sunday night. So James ashby Holly Hughesy here, James, I want to talk about nature positive. You were the first to beld a cat loudly on the show. Not because the Nats and all the resk, but you were the first right and explaining the problem. Now, the government who did the report, introduced the legislation and had a deal to pass the legislation have now gone, oh, there's no path to pass this legislation. Instead, let's hide it
from the Western Australian election. Let's hide it from the federal election. Fingers cross, we're all back with increased majorities, will shove it through then explain nature positive to people.
James, Look, this is the last bit of legislation anyone within this country would want to see pass in our federal parliament. Look, at the end of the day, they wanted to lock up thirty percent of our land, thirty percent of our oceans. That just impacts on more than just.
The mining sector.
I know so many of the miners, the big miners have said this is to be detrimental. But there's also an increased layer of the Cultural Heritage Act which goes in over the top right across the whole country. And we saw how terrible that was for Western Australia. They got rid of it very quickly, but all of a sudden, a sudden tenure plebi sect thinks this is a good idea. Look by taking this off the table, put short, this just avoids a political stout in the final two weeks
of the parliament before we go to the Poles. It's the same reason why Labor have announced only on Friday late in the day that they're going to do a review into puberty blockers for those people under the age of eighteen. They want to remove any blisters or any potential saws that might pop on them in this final two weeks. So rest assured these things will come back up again in a further term of parliament if the
Albanezi government are given a second term. So I just warn everybody out there, if you love the outdoors, if you love being able to access the majority of this country, do not vote for the Labor government, because you will get a nature positive plan implemented in the next term of government.
Yeah, I mean, Holly, I mean it is outrageous. The Prime minister, they do the deal, it's ready to go, but he understands the political consequences, yank. And then you know, when you know the crown is put back upon his head in minority or majority as he would see it. They're not bugger, He'll do it anyway. But okay, if they were able to do an entire federal election campaign
about MIDI scare based off nothing. Surely your side of politics is going to say, you know what, it still exists, let's go through the list and prosecute it before it is even on the table again.
And you know, nature positive doesn't have a wonderful name like it sounds like it's all warm and fuzzy and trying to do good things for the rest of us. But it really is a dreadful case of legislation and it's something that's been driven by the Greens. The volume of our forestry industry that they want to lock up, would have enormous economic consequences, particularly in Tasmania.
So they might not want.
To talk about it in Wa, but I can tell you that I don't want to talk about it in Tasmania either. I'm a little more skeptical that I think they're trying to keep a few things on the back burner if they go to minority government that they can negotiate with the Greens on. And you know James as well, where Senator Hanson has brought up many many.
Times the need from an inquiry into.
The use of gender blockers puberty blockers every time the young children, Well, Lavy's voted against it, very proudly say I voted no.
I know, I know you're on a team.
Not everyone on my side did, but you know, it is the barnacles that they're trying to get off the bottom of the boat, but I think we need to be mindful of what they're also trying to keep in their back pocket if they need to negotiate with the Greens and the Teals.
I've only got a bumper stick of time from both of you. A bold prediction for the weak ahead Senator, Oh.
Praise babe, gosh, we're back to Canberra. Very nice. I mean the willy WON'TI calling the election. I think it's going to.
Be really interesting to see what the behavior of the Labor MPs and senators are this week, how arrogant and cocky they are, whether they're still maintaining this era of invincibility that they've had since they've been elected, because it has not been a good summer for them. So I don't know if there's any one particular thing this week, but it's certainly going to be interesting to see what their attitudes.
Are clean of the office.
The closer they are, all right, James, make it really fast for me, mate.
My bold prediction is that the Liberal National Party here in Queensland will announce Victoria Park as the venue for the twenty thirty two Olympics. They'll announce that sometime around the Western Australian election weekend.
On a bit of cover.
Thank you appreciating, Good on you guys, enjoy your time back in Canberra.
Obviously, we'll have plenty of fire off of that.
Between now and next week. See Sunday Night one for the hard course. Thanks for watching see tomorrow
K