Paul Murray Live | 16 September

in play. Giggles, Miles is out and about today trying to well, I suppose give himself some confidence and claims that Labor will win or can wein the upcoming state election? Please please no? And I mentioned that special guest. It's a beautiful Annalys Nielson joining us with a big brain and everything, and she'll be joining us about not just fifty days to go in the election, but obviously the events in the past twenty four hours. Now you know

that I'm a Trump fan. I copy it from all sides like you probably do if you are as well. But can I tell you why I'm a real Trump fan in this election because of his response to when he was shot at remember fight, that was his response, and there's this image, which I don't know who designed it. It's popped up in a whole bunch of sort of fringe T shirt websites, none of them in my size.

But I love this image because it is the internal spirit of somebody who will not get knocked down, will not be put in their place, will just keep going. And think about this. If it was any of us who had been shot at, let alone hit, our reaction would be to cower a culture that's all about victimhood. Will it turns into a little ball and hides not trump like him, dislike him. Whatever the set of stones on this guy will they're their own version of Mount Rushmore.

And I know I will copy it on the internet for saying it. But how can you not think that when this was his reaction after he'd been shot, I love that. I love that surge of adrenaline that didn't turn into fear. It turned into standing up, chest out, push back. And of course there are plenty of things that he says that I don't like. There's plenty of ways that he does things that I think he could

do better. But this is the imperfect vessel who is standing up like previous generations have, like people who are constantly told everything is wrong with their worldview. He goes, no, here's our line, dig in and push. Well, as you know today, he didn't get shot at but he was potentially due to die today as a second lunatic tried to set up on a golf course to shoot kill and as well film it all on a GoPro that presumably would go straight up to social media. His own

version of the Zabruta film. But unlike the Zabruda film, which of course was Kennedy getting shot and somebody else filming it, the guy wanting to kill the president was the one who wanted to film it.

because he is this close to the presidency. This didn't happen with Obama. Remember all of the garbage about how racist America was and how they would respond to their first black president. Zero of these moments. Instead Trump two in a couple of months. This is how close it got.

either side, and to see the barrel of the gun. Unbelievable, frightening that even after he shot four to six times in the direction of the gunman, the gunman wasn't hit, Which means if there was a scenario of shots coming this way and those were the shots coming back, the likelihood is that there would be many more shots than what we saw with our own eyes back in July. Now again, we are in this moment where there is an organization whose job it is to create a bubble

around a president. Because Trump is who he is. He's not going to hide in the ballroom of his house. He's not going to hide at Marra Lago, He's not going to hide in the penthouse in New York. He is going to walk out onto a golf course that's a huge threat area, but he ain't going to stop, and you have to find a way to protect him. But amazingly, today there is a difference between somebody who's been a president and somebody who's potentially about to be

a president and somebody who is the president. This is even after the former president, who may will be about to become the president again or at the very least, is certainly this close to it right now. They admitted today there wasn't as much security around him as there would be if Biden was playing golf.

a trajectory to being the next president. The idea that both Trump and Harris are not surrounded as if they were president right now should be frightening to everyone because the consequences of one of those two candidates being injured or losing their life would be catastrophic for the United States. The flow on effect around the Western world would be enormous. So they should be wrapping potential presidents in the same bubble as the president because we are tonight fifty days

away from that election. Now. We also had been told that the Secret Service had some learned its lesson from believe it or not, the other time this year, that somebody was planning to killed Donald Trump and successfully got shots off and successfully hit him in the year millimeters between a story that people want to forget at a moment in history that your kids will learn about for

the rest of time. The person responsible for the Secret Service at that moment, as you just saw, she gave evidence, no answers. She eventually wasn't sacked, of course, because nobody gets sacked for failures in the United States upper echelons under this administration, so she, of course was allowed to resign. One of the people who was questioning her said something

again frightening. Regardless of whether you're a Trump or a Harris supporter, booster, or just somebody who wants the United States, not China or Russia, to be the top of the tree.

else would hide. Today, Sean Hannity, who will be interviewing people in and around this incident tomorrow middle of the day, Fox News. We'll have it for you here tomorrow and nine. This is what he had to say about the President's reaction after the incident took place, and we all saw the footage of the sniper's nest, where the plan was all there, where the camera was all set up, where there was ceramic tiles, that's what's in the plastic bags, and of course the ak with the site on it.

This was apparently Trump's response, honestly, like, dislike, hate the man. How could you not be impressed that this is his response when that's what could have happened.

was anyone else. But this bloke, he shows us in these moments where there's no advisers, there's no time to think exactly the type of person that he would be and that he is and that he would be as a president, Which is why again I'm all in. I get why that is problematic. I get why sometimes that's difficult and I lose mates as a result of it. But that's why I remain as all in on the bloke as I ever have been. Now about the lunatic

and I'm sorry. You know we're very sensitive to mental health on this program, but when you're doing this staff psycho right now, generally speaking we don't talk about assailants. But because thankfully everyone is alive on both sides of this, I'll do it quickly. The sun of this bloke says that he hated Trump like every other thinking person. This bloke is fifty eight years of age. He apparently had to be in his bondet about things like Ukraine, but

he's alive. So we're going to find out more. And now no doubt someone somewhere is going to find something that somehow will mean No, he's not as dangerous as he seems. No, he's as kooky as you think he is. But there's another part of this story that nobody attached to it today. And I wonder why. Remember when he was shot at the first time, and this was the message from his political opponent, you know, the political regular. This country has gotten very heated. It's time to cool it down.

brand and all of that business. Have a look today on one of the television shows that he's covering the breaking news, not six hours later, not four days after the breaking news of what could have been potentially the death of one of two people who will be the next president of the United States, or apparently it's Trump's fault.

Harris will continue it and hide behind it. If you have the chance to vote in the United States and you are watching this online somewhere, fight fight, fight metaphorically with your strength, with your purpose, not with your fists, not with your guns. But fight, fight, fight, because the rest of the world is watching, and we care deeply about who wins. Here at home, you may well know that Anthony Albernezi, greatest Prome Minister of all time, just

ask him, is in a world of trouble. Every single week a new poll tells the same story, which is down down. Not prices are down, but down down. Elbow is down. And today the polls in the Financial Review fifty two to forty eight. Now, this is the most generous to the Coalition of all of the polls that have been published thus far. It is an outline compared to fifty fifth, which is where Newspole is. But let's

not ignore this because it is huge. It also shows that when it comes to the preferred prime Minister, that again, while Anthony Abernezi is ever so slightly just in front, when it comes to his own favorable and unfavorable rating, well and truly, more people have an unfavorable opinion of the Prime Minister than they do Peter Dutton, which I know is very hard to believe if you only listen to Radio National and watch the Channel two talking shows

or listen to certain lefty podcasts, isn't Peter Dutton the problem? Well, of course, the reason that you're able to get to fifty two to forty eight is because the Liberal National Party now has a four in front of it. They win elections when there is a four in front of their primary vote. Now, I have also always said the independent the Teel factor is the reason why I'm not

part of this one term Elbow thing, right. But amazingly, the analysis of this is what I want to spend a couple of minutes actually getting into because the people who presented the poll, the people who have analyzed the pole, they are now starting to conclude that if that is true, and again I think it's a little bit too hot, but still, if that is true, it's not just a minority government of Albow, but potentially one for Dutton two. Now, again a lot has to go, right, I'll get to

some of the seats and I'll get why. I think that this is sort of perhaps a little generous, but still if the election result, if sorry, if the result was reflected on election day, the election would be conducted in the laboratory in which a swing was uniform. Now, of course it's not always Peter Dutton would get seventy five seats. Seventy five seats. Now, let me introduce you to this guy. He gets even deeper into where it's all potentially going to change. John Black, former Labor senator

from Queensland. He wrote in Peace in the Financial Review breaking all of this down. He says, my current estimates are that the Coalition will comfortably win more seats in the House of Representatives than Labour in twenty twenty five. That's big because it's the first person who's come out and is willing to say that, and obviously it's in print and reputations are on the line, so we'll all

find out together. But every other piece of data would suggest that Labour gets more seats than the NP at this stage because of principally the teals why the reasons has always start with household economics. During the past two years Albereesi government, families have found their household disposible incomes dropping eight percentage points. It's like we've been watching this

every day politically. Last week's Resolve political monitor that we showed you showed that the government is getting blamed for economic issues. Number fifty one percent of people say that the inflation problem is the government's to deal with, not the Reserve Bank. So the seats the suggestion here and now again these are all best case scenarios. I won't go through and say what I agree and disagree with,

but here's the of you. Their belief is that Paramatta, Patterson, Robertson Gilmore would all be pickups in New South Wales. There are way too many in Victoria, but still cou Yong, Menzies, Aston, Chisholm, Bruce, McEwen, Monash. The Greens would lose seats, not gained seats. They would lose seats to the LMP in Brisbane and Ryan. The new seat of Bullwinkle in Western Australia plus Tangy and the Teal seat of Curtains are two of the Teals would disappear in the Northern Territory. This is why I

have been talking about the Beaterloo basin. It's why we're gonna have Matt Cunningham on the show tonight because if Tannia Pluppa Seek is about to blow a hole in six and a half thousand jobs and five hundred trillion tons of gas. Goodbye Solomon, which is Darwin. The Labour Party can't win a trick in nall of Spring, so potentially Lingiari as well our mate Nicole Flint up in

Boothby and the seat of Lions in Tasmania. All that means that when we add it all up, we find that Labor is down thirteen seats from seventy eight to sixty five, Coalition up seventeen from fifty five to seventy two, three possible additional gains, again everything being all going their way. I don't know from what do they say his mouth

to old mate's lips, but you get my point. But believe it or not, despite the fact that the establishment literally try to ignore, and if they do engage, they'll just roll their eyes or laugh at this show me in particular, guess what they're starting to notice what we've been talking about now every night for two and a bit years. Patricia Cavales, host of Radio National Breakfast. I will not pretend that I'm going after a here. In actual fact, it's always been quite pleasant every time we

say helo to each other. Great, fine, all good lane, I'm in mind. Fine. But she wrote a piece today where guess what, she's noticed that the Labor Party promised that everything was going to be better, but it actually isn't. Again, two people, two different lanes that are now starting to merge. I'm sure that'll be great for all of her fans. And the number one issue again, she's discovered cost of living. In fact, she says, the cost of living question that

could shape as straight as next federal election. What is that question? Well, that question is, of course all in and around the same question that was the first question that was asked of the US presidential debate. It is, of course this when it comes to the economy, do you believe Americans are better off than they were four

years ago? It's the whole point when you are trying to get another term in office, in this case the second term in office, or back to back for her with the Biden administration, of which she is already the co piloting. Have you made people's lives better matters? When you promised to make people's lives better and you failed to deliver, the political whiplash is going to be pretty obvious.

And again PK points out in her column the polling that comes from Redbridge fifty seven percent of Australians when asked, cannot name a single thing ducky nothing, bugger all. They cannot name a single thing the federal government has done, led by Anthony Abernezi since being elected in May of twenty twenty two, that made their life better. And why the pols going the way they are again all of

the things we've been talking about. There's plenty of room here in the bandwagon for everyone to start to notice, well, we've been noticing for how long what you've been living for?

How long? This week's political research group that Redbridge conducted and they did focus groups since Indney West and Melbourne's West would of course elections, LIB will die for the first time in our collective years of research, both suburban Melbourne suburban Sydney are expressing their politics in very similar way. None of it is good news for the incumbent government. But before we start to put the Q in the rack and say well one term Prime Minister, this is

all going to happen, just keep pointing at them. The opposition has to come up with something. The opposition has to tell us what would they do on the questions in and around cost of living. Now, this is dangerous because the government, which has got all the treasury, all the media, all of the people trying to blow holes in the argument. But they do have to come up with to say, here's a couple of ideas that we believe are going to make people's lives better. And they're

not going to do it today. They'll do it closer to an election, but again from the same groups. One participant in the focus group, so I just haven't heard anything about what they would actually do with the cost of living. The Coalition made things worse, but Labor is not making it better. These are just two comments that come from it. So I'm pleased to see the establishment types who get all the awards and the invites and

the high fives, and they're amazed. Broadcasters are now starting to notice what this broadcast has been saying the whole time, that Labor have been in power, that their promise could not be delivered and an actual fact has made everything worse. We know are in the candown to the Queensland election, and I'll make giggles miles seen here being utterly rejected by voters at a by election. This is one where Labor got thumbed. He was trying to hand out out

of votes and nobody looked him in the eye. But he thought, oh, I'm William Murons hat that means on one of you, well, bugger off. Now he believes that he can win the next state election because of how successful the fifty cent fair thing has been. Well as anyone will tell you about a government that stinks as badly as this one, that's going as close to oblivion as this one, people will say, take the money and bugger off, and that will be their position, no doubt,

hopefully towards the end of October. Let's make it nice and clean. Let's make sure as many ministers, maybe even the Premier, lose their seat. Flush, get rid of go away, goodbye clear history. If we're trying to get rid of the garbage from a mobile phones, get rid of the cookies of this government, darro say, but here is the Premier pretending he can win.

and won an award. Love your Zutz, Love yoursha Now. The start of the race today is fifty days until the presidential election. Let us now take the temperature. Let's check the pulse. It's not how you take a temperature. If you do, you're going to be a lot more trouble, thankfully, not doctor, just idiot TV host. Now, according to the betting markets, Harris one point chance of but it's fifty to forty nine, so that is well and truly a toss up. According to the latest five national polls, these

have all come in after the debate. The ABC IPSOS poll has Harris up by four points. They were wrong by four points of the last election. Another one has Trump up three points. They are an a grade poll. Apparently Yahoo News has Harris up by four. Another one has Harris up by four and another one has Harris up by five. So after the debate, as you would expect, Harris in the league nationally. Remember she's got to be higher than two points to have a chance of being

able to win that electoral college. So what is the latest polling average in the states that matter? In Arizona? Trump up, Nevada, Harris just, Wisconsin, Harris a bit more than just, but still just Michigan, Harris just Pennsylvania. That's a tie. That's a tie, all right, Georgia Trump just So it's raise a thin in the bedding. It's raise a thin in the poles in the predicting markets where people use a whole bunch of other stats and they work out the percentages the poles were wrong in the past.

Trump fifty nine point six percent chance of winning. With the expectation is that he may well, if it all goes right for him, run the table. Literally all of the swing states may end up going his way. But we will all wait, watch and see. In the meantime, we will fight, fight, fight for what we believe in, which in this case is always Australia, specifically the Northern Territory.

We'll get to that straight after the break. Analys Nielsen about all the madness from the United States, but lots to get to, including Labour's continuing planned to censor the Internet. Guess what, it's just as bad as it was last time. Set, Thanks for watching, Thank you so much for watching. As you can notice, we are slightly fired up tonight, and that's the way we like it to be on a Monday. Let's have all the energy to keep the fight going

all week long. Frailinch was so good on Thursday, back on Monday, Back on Monday from the Mensis Research Center. Of course fighting when it comes to the censoring of the Internet bill, we don't call it the misinformation bill here. Matt Cunningham, Oh, I love this man. He's been to Paris, he's been to everywhere, but he's never been to me, as they would say, but he's a lovely man. Of course, it kicks as for a set indo and each and

every day. And I wanted to start first with you, Matt, because decision happens over the weekend where the Bloo Basin Gas Project six and a half thousand jobs, five hundred trillion cubic meters of gas right, so literally enough power to power a huge amount of the country and enough jobs to really tip tip the scales in the Northern Territory, Approved by Territory Labor, approved by the COLP, announced by all they've even got the machines ready to go, and

at that minute, Tanny Plipaseik says that let's have another review. Marian Scrimjaw is a local member in Lingiari. Here's her reaction, and then I'll get yours, and I think it'll be done before the end of the year. I'm not going to drag this on.

the right but on the left as well. I actually think this idea of a bit of a green push in the Northern Territory has been overstated, but I do think it is something that Labor is a little bit concerned about, and I think you're seeing a bit of that play out now, and so what they've done is, well, they're not pulling the water trigger. Tania plot Secu said, well, we're going to have this expert environmental panel take a look at this and see whether there are some issues

around the world water. But what you have to remember here, Paul, there's a long history here. The previous Colp government, the Adam Giles government, actually commissioned an independent review into fracking that found it was safe. The Labor government under Michael Gunner came to power in twenty sixteen foot in place a two year moraitatorium got five of the best environmental scientists in the country under Rachel Pepper, the former head of the New South Wales Environmental Court, to do a

two year, five million dollar review into fracking. It found that if the right regulations were in place, all that fracking could be done safely in the Northern territory. These companies have had to jump through that many hoops.

the Greens. They'd be worried about how badly they perform, particularly in Alice Springs, where the Greens outperformed them in the main seat of Braitling there in Alice Springs. But at the same time, if they push too hard, then Luke Gosling, who holds a seat of Solomon by about ten percent at the moment, he'd be very worried as well, because you haven't just got the law and order issues

that have been playing out in Darwin. If you then throw an economic bomb on top of that and say, oh, we're canceling the Beaterloo, then I think Luke Gosling would be a very unhappy camper and very worried about holding onto his own seat. So there's some interesting politics that play here as well.

That is what's going to happen. And I've got to say little shout out to all the professional political people everywhere. You know, they all in on the gold mine story, which is a great story. This one's bigger. Why because two federal seats matter in terms of the determinant about what's going to happen with the election. So guys stop thinking that the Northern Territories just a place for crocodile stories.

It ain't. There's plenty of political stories there too. That's why Matt's there loves the joint NT News and sky News dot com dot au Freyer again, you have seen this when you've been a candidate yourself, You've seen things when Labor is trying to thread the needle between we need the Greens, but we actually are going to lose a lot more people if we get too close to

the Greens. They have to make a decision here. I mean if that goes back to not the last government, but the government before that and the machines that they're ready to go today. Oh, but we're going to have one more inquiry. It's not going to be able to be put off until March next year. They're going to have to make a call.

and mining projects around the country. At the Menzies Research Center, we actually wrote a report on green lawfare activism and we've found that in the last couple of years it's actually cost our economy thirty thousand jobs because we have all of these multi billion dollar projects being held up in the courts by green activists who just want to destroy our country frankly, and labor seems to be going along with it.

money off the doing good in the territory. All right, But we've seen the suburbs, and we saw how the suburbs flip. We saw when it comes to Alice Springs, how it has flipped. We know that it's a town of high vis, we know it's a town of you know, literally sort of a bit of old school Australia. But tell me about that sense of environmentalism versus but to be made working in this stuff? How does it play in real politic in and around Doe.

last on their how to vote cards. So there were more than five hundred people in the seat of Nightcliff. Remembering there's only about four thousand people vote in any one electorate, there were more than five hundred people in the seat of Nightcliff who voted the COLP number one and must have put Labour last because their preferences went to the Greens, and that was what got the Greens over the line. Just as a consequence of that, you've had all of this analysis that has said, oh, Labour's

lost back to the Greens. They need to be more stronger on the environment, et cetera, et cetera. The CLP won seventeen of the twenty five seats. There was an eleven percent swing across the board to the COLP. The Labor Party got absolutely obliterated, wiped out in Darwin, Palmerston, Catherine, Tenant Creek and Alice Springs. They do not hold a

seat in any of those places. How you can see that as anything but a swing to the right and an electorate saying, oh my god, we have had enough of a Labor Party that had swung too far to the left. And at the very last minute, under evil Lula tried to straighten the ship up, tried to get back to the center, but by that time it was too late and they got thrown out on their ear. I just failed to see how that there is any other assessment of the result of an Northern Territory election.

it's coffee shops and the rest of it. God love your pal all right, Frey, let's have a version same conversation, but with an update here essentially of the internet stuff. Starting to notice a few people starting, once they've read the bill to come out against it. You were hard against this last week. I assume your position has done nothing but harden as the day have rolled on. While Matt's down there with the coffee crowd.

But if your footy team is ending up playing in any of the major capitals and they know there's going to be flights on the numbers go through the roof are they?

to Sydney was almost fourteen hundred dollars one way. If I had to take my whole family, I'd be looking at more than ten grand to fly down to Sydney and back if I had to go at short notice. It is out of control. It is killing people up here and obviously it's turning people in North Queensland as well. Something needs to be done about it. But as we've been talking about for the last ten minutes, we've only got two seats here in the Northern Territory, so I probably won't hold my breath.

fifty days to go until the pre cidential election. Analyst Nielsen, who has been doing a spectacular job of covering the campaign and the governing and every bit of craziness in between, joins us again from Washington, d C WERO. I look forward to hanging out with her and everyone else in

the lead up to the actual election itself. Analyst. Of course, though we've talked about what happened yesterday, and I've got to say I do remain a little bit stunned at how because a shot wasn't fired, because someone didn't die, story disappears. Hey did you hear j de Denan saying something silly on TV? This is massive?

what is the secret Service? Doing, and it is hard to secure a golf course, but it's certainly not impossible, and to have the perimeter like that not monitored to the extent that someone can go set up what we saw in that photo from the release by the law law enforcement, and this is one of the key issues in how the safety of the former president and the current Republican nominee is managed. And we're learning more after

what happened to Butler. Pennsylvania. Is so much of what the Secret Service does relies on the local law enforcement, and obviously they've got to step up in a place like Palm Beach because it's a wealthy area. They're used to having the former president living in the county, and they still didn't have that perimeter secured. It is shocking.

There's going to be questions on Capital Hell it's back in session for the next few weeks from Republicans there, but it is a real question how do they keep him safe over the next few months in the country with hundreds of millions of guns. A lot of people have it out for Donald Trump, but this is serious that they had this first issue in Pennsylvania and they haven't done enough. But this has almost happened again.

much I care about middal health on the show. But that is part of the question here, right, Let alone bad actors, but also the bloke who represented the police in that area basically admitted if it was Joe Biden was playing golf ie current president, much more security would be around them. But this is a former president, so

you don't get the same stuff. Now. I say this for Harris, not a sitting vice president, but as potential president number one and Trump former president, potential president number two. They should be getting the Biden treatment right now, not twenty days out, as soon as there've been, as soon as the conventions happened. They should be getting presidential level, which means when Donald wants to go outside, he's guarded. When she wants to go to the spice shop, she's guarded.

worth it at this point. Imagine if the worst had happened yesterday, this would be an absolute nightmare for America. But also when we're talking about mental health in America, this is a common thing that's especially raised by Republicans when we're talking about gun control. The fact is too, it's just a massive country. There's over three hundred and twenty million people here. It only takes one bad actor to get this kind of access to someone as influential

and important as Donald Trump. At this point in time, there should be You're absolutely right, just as much security as it possibly takes to keep him safe, because this would be an absolute disaster if anything were to happen to him at this point in time.

When something as significant as this happens, you'd think that they wouldn't leave the house. But nothing changes his step, right, It'll be fascinating to see again reality is there is political elements around all of these things. We know that Harris was starting not so much to take off but get out in front when it comes to the post debate bump. But whether that comes back to the fifty to fifty game, we'll all see together. Which brings me

neatly to fifty days out. I have no doubt that every day someone from somewhere in your life back in Australia, who do you think is going to win? Answer? No one knows it's fifty to fifty. But give us an idea of what you're looking at for the sort of cat's whiskers approach, to give us an idea of which way it's going.

the game. And also a lot of people who say they like Kamala Harris are gen Z and they're not very good at following through with actually registering to vote, getting that ballot in on time.