From the Sky New Center. This is Paul Murray Live, Tom Jones. Yes, Cliff Richard, No, you can have that. You can have that, Caleb. Thank you very much to every who with the Sunday showdown, Come on into the man Cave. What a show I got for you tonight. Back to the data, back to the detail. There is a couple of polls that are out tonight. We'll talk
about him before they're evening the newspapers tomorrow. Who's up, who's down, Who's closer, who's further away to winning the election, which of course will be called after the federal budget mail in March twenty fifth. To see that Allen She along with the rest of the Labor Party sends Victoria deep into the ditch, but they end up getting a GST handout paid for by you. And the fastest person to run two hundred meters this year is an Ossie
ingers crossed gold gold goal. First, some wild things around that are nothing to do with political news, but instead a little bit of the weather. Last week the focus was Queensland, while the rest of the country is trying to catch up. There's been a bushfire on the outskirts of Melbourne. He's the latest we have about that today.
There were significant threats to the house or households and the assets in the area. To the best of my knowledge at this stage, we have lost one house. I believe it shed in a cubby house and that's all. And I think, considering the circumstances and the side of the fire, very lucky that that's all.
And Maya was hot in Sydney today. The temperatures were apparently the hottest since records have been kept by the Bureau of Meteorology. So the best part of what one hundred and something years, one hundred and fifty years the hottest night that Sydney has sweltered through in March, not of all time, but it's you know how it works. Sometimes the hottest bits of summer are at the height
of summer. Sometimes the super hot weather is slightly after summer, but you know, que the usual anyway, what I love about a super hot day, same as a super cold day, soon as a super wet day or a super windy day. It's up to the news to go and find people telling us how damn hot it was in Sydney today.
Spat chair from the yes today and then today it's just I had to take the kid somewhere.
A lot of the bucket hats have been very popular.
We've run out of some of the great hats, lots of sunscreen, the water bottles are all sold out.
According to the forecast, the next couple of hours it will start to fall off. In fact, it could be some twelve degrees cooler by the time you wake up tomorrow, as opposed to what it is right now, as it is hovering around thirty in many parts of Sydney. Why so warm and why now? Well, I mates it. Sky News Weather have the answer.
The mercury is set to plummet with strong winds, showers, alpine snow and thunderstorms today as a strong cold front crosses the southeast. However, this is making for a scorcher across New South Wales.
All right, Let's get to the politics though, of the Prime Minister and Peter Dutton, as they fight for your voters a vote that. Of course, we were expecting we'd be at the end of the first big of the election campaign, but the extropical cyclone blew all of that away, which means we are now having to stead on the barrel of a too little, too late federal budget and
then a May election. Now the Prime Minister thinks that he has been able to buy his way to your affections, because we all know when it comes to the decisions of the past three years, every poll who's shown us for more than eighteen months. In fact, since the end of the Voice when he turned sixty forty yes into sixty forty zero, Australians have not been listening. So the Prime Minister is trying to get your attention with your money.
A seven point two billion dollar announcement today, five million dollars ten million dollars, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollar, three hundred and fifty million dollar, two billion dollars, thirty seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar, two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar, four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars.
See, it's just endless, literally every single day, and we are what about halfway through March, not even at the end of the third month. And that is just the daily toll on the billions and billions and billions. Well, despite the fact that you sent to Alan is running
a very unpopular government. She of course was around the table when Victoria was spending money like well, even drunken sailors would have been embarrassed by how much money was going around and in actual fact, so unpopular is you cent to Allen that I noticed to be a fact that Anthony Albernezi has come in and out of Melbourne, slid in and out of Melbourne without even telling the premier. Is there a littlone stopping over for a lunch or doing a selfie by the barbecue like you did with
the dictator Dan. They are not going to be seen apparently arm in arm at the upcoming election. Why because Victoria is one of the worst performing states at the moment in terms of the primary vote and the latest polls in and around this upcoming election now they are down eight points since the last election. They were there in the very early thirties, they're now down to the
mid twenties. Victoria the worst states where the most number of seats are So this is a problem when not even you can crack a quarter of the vote ever so slightly to the technical quarter in Queensland, and as we saw out of Western Australia, labor's probably doing better in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. I don't know what's happening in the northern territory, but we will all
find out together in just a few weeks time. But desperately trying to find a way not to embrace the bad Victorian government who has done disgraceful things to its economy, blown every version of the credit card and now they are onto the payday lender as a way of being able to keep the lights on in Victoria. Well, now the entire pot of GST money has been rearranged. Money
will now be going to Victoria. Victoria will actually be getting more money, or a greater share of GST the tax of ten percent on everything paid, of course, from the southern bit of Tasmania, the top of Queensland, everywhere in Wa and everywhere else in between. Victoria has emerged as the biggest winner of this next year's GST carve out, of course, nothing to do with twenty four percent in
the opinion polls that this was all scientific. Apparently they're going to get an extra three point seven b four billion dollars in revenue. The Comonwealth Grants Commission made the decision on Friday, it shows the Victoria is expected to get twenty six point one billion dollars in GST of the total ninety five billion dollars that the tax creates. By the way, that is less money than company tax
and less money than personal income tax. So just in case you think the biggest source of governant revenue is the GST, no it's not. It's you going to work, so good luck paying tax until Wednesday. The huge increase of the state coffers is up from twenty two and a half billion in twenty four to twenty five, rolling back to eighteen and a bit billion dollars in twenty three to twenty four. Victoria's got twenty five point seven percent of the nation's population, but we'll get twenty seven
and a half percent of the GST. This means when you actually put some numbers together and I'm saving the GST announcement because that comes from a different pot of money. The total amount of promises to buy your vote from a prime minister who is in a world of trouble, no matter how many times you hear about the protection racket coming from his mates in the media that he likes to metaphorically tuck into bed each and every night,
almost forty four zero b four billion dollars. And as you know, one of the reasons why the government has been able to post surpluses for the past couple of years and probably again in a couple of weeks time, is because the huge receipts when it comes to mining, huge increases when it comes to the taxes on things like petrol and cigarettes and alcohol, huge increases in the amount of money that is coming in when it comes
to personal income tax. And largely all of this extra money has resulted in an extra some hundred and four hundred billion dollars coming to the federal government. But as they write in the Financial Review, much of it has been waste. It's been wasted. Put simply, as Chris Richardson, who we hope to talk to between now and the budget by the way, he's, of course the guy who
has a look at the budget. He's able to work out what is the on budget money, the off budget money, the money they promised to save, and the money that they are overspending. They were kissed on the proverbial. Given a blank check four hundred billion dollars, what are they spending on? Generally, welfare, guaranteed pay rises for public servants, three pay rises for politicians. How did your life get
better result of that four hundred billion dollars. Oh and by the way, one of the ways they got that four hundred billion dollars is they took fifteen hundred dollars off ten million taxpayers. Remember this, whatever they have promised, whatever they promised to deliver for ten million workers, fifteen hundred dollars worse off after one of their first budgets, and you have never got even close to that number. Again, more polls. As we are talking tonight about state of
the race. But let's have a look about state of the race, which I'm very excited. You know how I get into the detail and the granula. This is a great night. This is one for the hard cause. And that's why we reward you with this insight that honestly, it'll you'll see this stuff pop up in a couple of days time somewhere else. Hear it first, learn it
all together. Of course, the Prime Minister thinks that, you know, if he just keeps pretending that Peter Dutton is Aussie Trump, if he can try to change the subject to medicare and if he can try to pose that he plays any role in a storm, then somehow his numbers will bounce back. Well, depending on the pole, there are some indications that maybe either they've hit the bottom or they're
starting to move back to being competitive. In fact, in the Royal Morgan pole, now this bounces around like each week it shows Lives slightly in front, Labor slightly in front. It shows this week that Labor is slightly in front. A little better poll is the UGOV poll that shows that Labor is now up fifty one forty nine, in part because of the personal standing of Anthony Abinezi and Peter Dutton, who have essentially now started to eat in
the middle, rather than one being able to best the other. Again, if you have a look at where they have put things. Now, remember that pole that I showed you before. The Resolve poll showed that Labour's vote is what five points down. According to this, it's only a couple of points down. The coalition's vote, well, it's supposed to be almost up to forty in this it's just in the high thirties. The Greens they end up sitting there at about what
they've got at about fourteen percent. What's really important, really important for the Coalition when you are doing the numbers in your head here is have a look at the poll enhancement number, that's seven percent. You've got to hope that most of those preferences go back to the Libs. Otherwise, if they spray anywhere else, it's definitely going to be a Labor government. As for the Independence and the Trumpers there or the Trumpeter of Patriots, they're at one percent,
meaning two party pre third fifty one forty nine. Why because they say Labor has not slid as far as every other pole. They say the Coalation hasn't grown as far as every other pole. We will talk about it in moments time with Kosamaras, who does his own pole, speaks to people in those swing electorates, which one does he think is closer to the mark. Also the wonderful Michael Kroger on how to achieve the result you are
trying to do. One thing that the pole also shows very clearly, and I've talked about this before the majority of Australians do not share the view that I have and maybe you have. When it comes to Donald Trump. They wouldn't have voted for him. That's what the polls told us in November of last year in terms of Australia, and only about thirty percent are all in on the Great Man. So there's going to be a lot more politics played between now and the election, and particularly this
sort of Aussie Trump stuff in and around Dunden. But on the question of Vladimir Zelenski and Ukraine, which way do people go? Do people want to back in the Zelenski version, which is fight, fight, fight, or the Trump version, which is piece piece piece, Well sixty nine percent of Australians stand with the idea of fight fight fight, Only
thirty one percent like the position. When it comes to Trump, Labour voters the least impressed with Trump are just twenty percent, Paul Enhanson voters fifty seven percent pro Trump Coalition, thirty six other voters, those independents of thirty and at twenty nine percent Green's voters are apparently more into Trump than Labor voters. In fact, the bloke who put the poll
together this is Anthony Oberneese. Personal satisfaction levels have notably improved, particularly as Australian's overwhelmingly back his commitment to stand with the Ukraine. Overseas leaders who opposed Trump policies have seen improvements in their polling results. In Trump's recent twenty five percent tariff decision presents an opportunity for Alberanezi to further improve his leadership standing. Again, we will discuss all of
this in a moment or two time. A new pole that has broken just as we were going to air. Great work by lucying the team who are talking here not about the ruling Morgan pole, but about the latest pole that has just dropped in the Financial review. That one again shows slight improvement for the Labor Party, but it's still worth noting here. On two party preferred they say that Labor gets seventy one seats, the coalition gets
sixty six seats. As you can see the dip and then starting to come back up, the Coalition would win nine seats of the next election. The Labor Party would lose just seven. As I've said, if they lose seventy seats, they can still get there when it comes to being the minority, I think. But clearly if Labor has more seats than the coalition, then obviously they're not just in the box seat. They will form the next government. But
that's what they believe to be the case. They think at least a couple of the sitting independence, perhaps a couple of those gnats that might come back in towards the coalition, or maybe a teal or two might end up being there. So worth noting when it comes to that pole. As for the issues that have just been dropped in that financial review pole, guess what the number one is? Will it surprise you? Seventy one percent of people say cost a living, So the Prime Minister tries
to change it to health. It hasn't moved housing the number two issue. Now, remember housing works in multiple ways. It's about the people who renting, the people who are owning, the people who are paying off a house, the people who want something for their kids or grandkids. Crime is on top of the economy right now by one point, climate change, way out of the five, Defense, immigration, employment
are all starting to taper off. And believe it or not, industrial issues at bottom of that pile top of the list. Still as so they used to say, what number one with a bullet remains cost of living for the well how of them in one hundredths week in a row. But just back to this scenario here where these polls, tell us what they have told us about the message to the Prime Minister of trying to turn Peter Dunnin into the Australian version of Donald Trump. Now we know
he is not. In fact, there will be plenty of people you will read here in the next few days they're going to say he's not trumpy enough. But the reality is anyone, anyone to the right of the Greens, is going to consider themselves to be Trumpian, certainly when it comes to the teals. So get ready for this to be the lazy tag that they going to put on Peter Dutton. And as they try to move the
subject from their own performance. Remember they promise changes when it came to cost of living, they promise changes when it came to home loans, all of those things way up and through the roof your life has been harder under this government, not just the decisions, but the failure in their promises. That's what this election should be about. But watch everyone try to change the subject here. Watch this try to be some sort of a proxy vote
against Donald Trump. Now that's the case, It's pretty obvious the majority of Australians are not going to vote for what they believe to be anything trumpy and hence why you're going to hear it over and over again about Peter Dutton, no matter how many times he has said and proven that he is not his part of the attack that's going to be there because remember, this is the bloke who promised better conditions on cost of living.
But apparently the number one issue of the next election is the trumpiness of Dutton.
Such a decision by the Trump administration is entirely unjustified. This is against the spirit about two nations enduring friendship and fundamentally at odds with the benefits that our economic partnership has delivered over more than seventy years.
Match that with what they person was saying, which is the harder you running against Trump, the better it looks for you. Again, I don't know whether people have got that short memory, but we'll all find out together. And the media, jeez, don't I love writing an opinion piece a think piece over and over again, particularly the Turnbulel Times, But over and over again. The new reality is dawning on Australia. It can no longer rely on the US. In the Turnbull Times, of course, the ghost said that
he won't be gasold over Trump. If you suck up to him, you'll get more bullying. Geez, what a wonderful way of explaining the dying days of his prime ministership. The Telegraph had plenty of people hundreds, in fact, a couple of thousand comments about people when it comes to Trump and the tariff decision, most being negative about that tariff decision and the ultimate reason why they are hoping that Trump is going to be like a giant that produces a shadow that goes all the way across the
Pacific Ocean and into Australian politics. Have a look at this one. Turbul times Trump's senseless tariffs will extend the economic malaise fell by so many in Australia and around
the world. So despite the fact in twenty twenty two, when Donald Trump was not the president and he was in about as deep an exile as you can imagine before he went into courts where he could have spent the rest of his life in jail in twenty twenty three, at twenty twenty four, no no, no, no, All of that time where Albo and his mates promised to make things better but it all got worse twelve intrastrate rises, tens of thousands of dollars extra on top of your
home loan. Tax on a bottle of Bundy up to sixty three percent. Sixty three percent, ludicrous, excessive taxes on cigarettes which is seen in the past three years, and explosion not just at the chop job but at the illegal gangs that are fighting it out for who gets to sell it to you. Not to mention record number of businesses that have gone broke. Not to mention three million people this close to homelessness, not like three and a bit million people who won't know where their food
comes from this week. Oh no, no, no, no no, it's all about a referendum on Donald Trump. Don't let this happen. They'll try it. It's going to become the tactic for the next few weeks. It's going to be the talking
point between now and the budget. The budget, and then a couple of weeks after they have not been able to get a poll bounce out of the three budgets, the three years of budgets that delivered four budgets, three budgets that they have delivered thus far before the fourth, they didn't get it out of tax cuts they won't get it out of whatever they're about to pull out of the bag. But watch the Camber Press gallery wake
up to the news of Trump. Apply that exclusively to the Australian election, hoping that you forget that the people who run this country, when they were appying for the job of running this country, promised things to get better.
Instead they have all got demonstrably worse. Now, this story was around last week, but I wanted to take a second or two to bring it out of the intray and put a little bit of focus and also say a little bit of a congratulations Jonathan Lee, who is one of our investigations people here, great reporter, a bloke who just is all in at everything that he does. Remember he did a little documentary and then you say little, because I think it was a little bite sized thirty
minute one does really well on the website. It talked about how, among other things, superannuation funds like Australian Super when somebody dies take forever to pay out the policies. Now, this is not because a bunch of greedy people are secretly rubbing their hands together going geez, I hope I can get a couple hundred grand out of insert person's name who just passed away. No, it's because they may well have a whole series of debts. You're trying to
wind up their estate. You're trying to make sure that they've got some money to hand on to kids or grandkids. But Australian Super, one of those union super funds, has now been caught kicking and screaming. Now remember this was in the reporting of Jonathan Lee last year. He was onto this ball before others were, and I'm sure others will be the ones who end up with the trophies.
But I wanted to say, well under the team who picked the docos, here world, under the bloke who made the doco, and thank you to the people who spoke so honestly about their experience with Australian Super.
The second of November is when we called Susan and Neville.
Buckley kept detailed notes as they underwent the harrowing process of retrieving their dead son Super for a retirement. He would never get to see.
He's been quite as been quite a journey and.
No one ever has to go through what we did with this company.
He died in a road accident last October. The parents expected the process of withdrawing your savings from Australian Super, the nation's biggest retirement fund, would be procedural, but they were completing documents in an ad hoc fashion. They say, as the process was strung out for months, we.
Assumed it would take some time, but we thought weeks perhaps, but it just dragged on and then once we got into the new year and there was these huge silences, it sort of felt like we've been purposely ignored. Because soon made so many counts out on that plane for so long that the battery would run flat in it. We felt at that stage it will been deliberately installed.
You go looking for that doc go on a YouTube channel, or it's going to news dot com dot you, which should be your homepage not just for the latest news, but you can find all of the videos, all of the opinion. It's their twenty four to seven. Well, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission has decided to take Australian Super to court. Put simply, they offer a product that says we will pay out under the following circumstances if one of those is death and you don't pay out,
or you took take forever to pay out. And you don't tell people you're going to take forever, you're going to be in a world of trouble, or at least that's what ASE is going to try to tell the court.
Wanted out to sit with prescription how long it should take. What we're really concerned about is where we say it is clearly too long. So here we have in our case we're alleging today nearly seven thousand claims that took between four months and four years to process to.
The matters of COVID, and particularly the fact that five years on, the kids aren't all right. We know this to be the case because remember we showed you last week that incredible little documentary which on the Adelaide Advertiser's website. It's called Lockdown Kids. I think part four dropped today. It talks about their difficulties, their anxieties about how we and I know you and I weren't the premiers, but
how we screwed up an entire generation. Another example of it is in the Sidney Morning Herald and the Age newspapers today and it shows about the number of kids that have been affected by things like COVID, but also neurodivergent kids, spicy kids, as they can occasionally be called, kids with things like dyslexia, autism, or ADHD. We're teachers reporting up to forty percent of classrooms and now made up of neurodivergent children, not all of them with an
official diagnosis of autism, ADHD or dyslexia. I've got two out of those three, not the first. Those challenges can be felt even greater by some. Now the authors of a new book who serve a twelve hundred families with a neurodivergent child and six hundred different teachers. They also interviewed dozens of families, teachers, scientists, psychologists, school principles, autism experts, GPS, speech therapists as well for this new book. It is
called out of the Box. It's about the picture of the number of kids who are new divergent, and one of the authors says, I felt like crying every time I say this, But we spoke to some kids' parents and the child had gone from prep to year twelve without ever being invited to a birthday party. Now, apparently this is because some people make the decision that a spicy kid is not going to fit in with all
of the other kids at a party. As Madonna King says in the extracts and conversations about the book, we have to realize that, yes, there has been a lot of diagnosis, and a lot of people somehow have opinions about this. I just think we're better at diagnosing what we used to ignore in lots of different things, lots of different things. But there are going to be some kids that are going to be able to turn up.
They might turn up a little bit late. They turn up, they might play one game and then they're going to try to retreat. That doesn't mean the kids have a bad time. It just means they're having a tough time being part of the party. So can I just say if you are a parent or a grandparent and you know that you would invite everyone in the class, or everyone on the soccer team, or everyone on the insert whatever group that you're in, but you think twice about
maybe not that one. No, no, no, please invite them, because, as this story shows us, when kids get left behind, everything gets worse. So do your best to include as many people as possible, including the people why. Yeah, Oka, occasionally it might be difficult, but imagine what it's like
for them inside. Okay, And strength and love to all of the parents, all of the grandparents, and anyone who has found their way to navigate life with things like autism or ADHD or anything else that's neurodivergin Strengthen love. As I said of that list, I've told you before, I'm a high functioning dyslexic with an awful lot of ADHD that to this very very day can be a problem.
I ended up here, but many many people in and around that stuff who are a little bit spicy don't end up as lucky as I am to be able to do what I do. But strength and love. I just want you to know we see you and we're always in your corner. I promise. We really are a little bit of sport to talk about the Australian Grand Prix, and good on the fans who, by the way, not the people that were sort of running around the bird cage, you know, the celebs. God love a few of those people. However,
God love the people sitting in the ponchos as. It was really warm for a couple of days, then it rained. Oscar Piastre, what is he going to win? Was he going to be the first Australian to win the Astralian Grand Prix in a very long time, and no his team at Landa Norris did though he was Oscar Piastre after spinning out.
Obviously pretty pretty disappointed. I like it was a pretty pretty good race apart from.
That one mistake that cost a lot. So yeah, I just such a shame.
Now what about got gout? This is the bloke who is it's the fastest person to run two hundred meters this year and he's a naussy. Now we know Comwealth Games a little while away, Olympics another three years away. But what form this bloke is having? And congratulations to everyone who is part of his team. There was a big meat this weekend and he, as I said, hit it out of the park. He has not got the world record, but Jesu's close fastest time in the world over two hundred this year.
Pretty much top ten times in my Career's a pretty good time.
I'm still getting back in through it, so I couldn't.
Be have you.
All right, let's get into its state of the race, hardcore political talk, new polls, what's around the corner between now the budget? Are they going to go the full levels of attack when it comes to Dunton Trump, how do you fight back against Albo and what's happening at the moment in some of the missiness when it comes to taking on the teals. Just getting started. You're going to love tonight show. Glad you are where you are. Thanks all. Oh, let us get into it deep and
detailed political chat. This is the way you want to do a Sunday night. Hey, you know people who do or do not actually love each other? Fake Matt whatever, Yeah, footy, that's all done. You know what six hours ago when the Grand Prix was done. All right, this is the chat. This is the state of the race, which we get into right now with Cosamaris was of course from the red Bridge group and Michael krogerho is a legend around liberal parts. Gentlemen, Hello, get a happy by Saint Patrick's dale,
all of that business. So let's get into a little bit of hot data, because we've got some new data in our hands tonight. The Freshwater Pole produces one saying that the coalition best cases nine seats, Labor would lose seven, but it puts them at seventy one sixty six. Pretty obviously they'd be able to form a minority government with even probably without the Greens, but they'd be going close
to the Greens at that point. Their poll of poll shows that after Labour went really high and then basically twenty four went to sub fifty, it's either now flattening or ever so slightly coming back up. Number one issue costs of living seventy one percent housing, then healthcare. You gov produced a number yesterday that basically is the most optimistic about the Labor parties four from the previous election, where again some poles will tell you that it's what
five points off. According to this it's only two points coalition not really great beneficiary. So they say that Labour Party fifty one forty nine because obviously your numbers will be the best and we will see them in the coming days. However, what do you think of what appears to be a narrative trend in the interpreting of these numbers that Olbo's back baby Not really.
So what we're seeing is effectively recalibration of what existed in the electro landscape in twenty twenty two. So Labour's primary vibe it's around thirty two thirty one hasn't moved again, even with a Freshwater pole, even with you Guv's pole, it's the same number. It has not moved for pretty much, you know, since since the since Labour's primary vote declined from this honeymoon period. Coalition fluctuates between thirty seven to forty.
Sometimes you see a thirty six in front of it with a really bad with a really bad sample for them, like in UGUV sample. And then of course every pulse struggles to actually capture accurately the other vote. And this is where every pulse, including us, are not going to get this right. So we've got we've got a lot of fluctuation amongst that other vote. You know, in Freshwater's numbers, Greens are at fourteen and colisions down. Well, we know
that's not the case. We know that people are not jumping off the Libs and going onto the Greens.
That's just not happening.
So it's really just a it's an artifact of the data. Not much has changed. It is going to go down to the wire. It will bail down to which seats are you know, the Liberal Party has a high enough primary to capitalize on labor spraying of their vote, so what we will see is Labour's primary vote won't necessarily all when they hemorrhach, won't necessarily all go to the coalition. Some of them will just like I did in WA,
but not all of it. So that's where I think the content is going to be fought in one and we just have to wait and see it. But I think it's very important that we just take a step back.
That's this way.
I think sure Dunton's camp is pretty flat forwarded at the moment and that's not helping them.
Well, I mean, let's be honest. I mean this show over the past couple of weeks spoken about their responsiveness or lack thereof at certain times. All right, So whether we're feeling it in real time and some data follows up and look, I think you had a much better week last week, and whether it is just those little
fractions on the side. I'll pick you up in a second to go a little further cause into something that you were just talking about, say sample size, and I think you know we're all old enough to have that chat. We'll get to that in a second. But Michael, again, are we seeing a scenario where remember it's a whole collection of poles that start to build a trend. I
know that. You know your mate Stephen Conroy, he sort of feels, yeah, they've bottomed out, and if at the very least bottoming out at fifty one forty nine is a better place to be than bottoming out at you know, forty seven fifty three or that resolt pot, which is probably the most pro change of government that's out there at the moment.
Well done about Stephen Conroy. He's still recovering from having to spend set He's still recovering from having to spend several years as a minister in Kevin Rudd's government. So you've got to give You've got to give Stephen a bit of a leaf pass mate. I don't accept the yougo the Yigo pole to me, fluctuates too much. It has two percent swing against us the previous months I had three months three percent to us. It's just not consistent.
Enough for me.
The fresh water pole, I think I agree with because I think the coalition's momentum has slowed over the last month. Labor have had a better two weeks than the Coalition have had. I think it's all the car before the storm. I don't agree with the seventy one sixty six because that in the freshwater pole in the finterview, because that presupposes that the swing is uniform, and that's all the
Pols can do. I mean they don't. I'm not blaming them, not criticizing them when you overlay what they say is you know about a three percent swing to the coalition, that gives you the result they've come up, which is seventy one sixty seventy one to Labor, sixty six to the coalition. But I think the Coalition is doing better in the marginal seats. So for example, the Coalition are going to win Aston, and they're going to win Bullwinkle and they're going to win Chisholm in Victoria, so that
gives Dutton sixty nine and Albanezy sixty eight. And I also think the Coalition are going to win McEwan, Brisbane and Boothby. So that's how I get to seventy two and I've got Abo on sixty five. I think the Liberal vote in liberal seats is probably not increasing that much. I think the swing is on in marginal seats, particularly the outer suburban marginal seats, and that's why I've got Dutton head and that's why I think his favorite to in the election made.
Yeah, I mean I'm also looking forward to somebody getting under the hood of say Ben Along read in New South Wales Ben Along. You know. Again redistribution notionally this but the whole point is labor seat currently but very small margin. And again this is part of the lesson. When I turn around and I'm trying to try to give you as much of a picture right as you know,
all we can do is have an insight. Okay, not the crystal ball, because all of us will be off, you know, with this week's lot of numbers, right, But it's about that crystal ball and the best insights that we can get. One of the reasons why we love talking to Causes because he's not just doing a polling, but there's also these conversations with voters. He's able to see and hear the stuff that may not turn up in a which way someone's going to vote, but becomes
indicative of where someone's going to go. Now again, you mentioned before about sample here cause and again I can imagine the haters watching going, Oh, of course you want to talk about sample size when the poll isn't going the way you want it to be settled down. Relax, Okay, let's have the adult chat you want to play like that, go over to the ghost's house at point Piper, he'll
hang out with you. Right, but right now my thing here cause is okay, when you whatever statistically relevant one thousand people, fifteen hundred people, and then you have to go and find what percentage of the population is twenty five to thirty four, what percentage lives in Victoria, you've got a sort of balance around all of that before
you even start to get into political identification. Was there anything in that Yuga poll the show's labor slightly up over the Libs that is just just stands out to you as they've asked too many of this or not enough of that, and anything in that you was talking about sample before. Yeah, that's right.
Look, you know, I really do emphasize the margin of era, which we are all as polsters do to report, but no one really pays attention to it. Like you know
in twenty nineteen everyone wrote up the poles wrong. Well, if you're actually factoring in the margin of ra and all those poles actually quite accurate, right, it's just that right, Like it's if it's a fifty one forty nine contest and you've got three percent margin of era, it could go anyway right now, And go back to Michael's point, which is absolutely critical, you can't uniformly apply in today twenty twenty five, right, so you know, it could be
very different in outer suburbs and regions versus the inner parts of our art cities. So it's a seat by seat situation and applying you know, swings at uniformly it just doesn't work right now in this political landscape. So you know, I've said that Labor could win with a forty eight two party preferred or they could lose with a fifty one two party preferred. We just don't know. R It's such a complicated election. It is the most complicated SINS federation.
Yeah, I agree completely because as we've discussed before, I mean, you know, when you were sitting in a studio in Perth a couple of weeks ago, things are very different than where they are And of course the East Coast isn't a uniform outside of Brisbane versus you know that the Sunny Coast, Gold Coast are the Teals having a crack in the north of this city or the west, you know, or all of those pictures, let alone, as I said, the West to play people who might just
be giving up on the Labor Party, you know, because of the Victorian government, or Die Aley's you know, mates got to run. So there's so much inside all of this. But I wanted to ask you both about something which is such a number that to me screams, hey, pay attention everyone and wake up. This number matters. Okay, essential Pole Turnbull times in the Guardian, Okay, thirteen percent of people say I have not decided who I'm going to vote for. Okay, we all know that'd be logically the case.
It's compulsory voting a lot of people paying attention to everything else. But the reason I wanted to mention it though, was once you start to break things down into voting intention, which I think means you are starting to see what people are saying. To a polster, they'll say, yeah, I'm going to vote labor. But what percentage of that actually is not just soft but doesn't exist? All right, It's just a place to hold because you decide to do a poll and you end up picking one of the
options right. Nine percent of Labors vote according to this have not decided who they're voting for, not not the thirty nine percent to say I think, but I might change their mind. Right, we're talking literally about the people who just tick the box because it's a box, right. Four percent of Coalition less than that of Green's. Here's the one that matters. Twenty percent of independent or other party voters have not decided who they're going to vote for.
Thirty eight percent say that they think they know who they're going to vote for, but they could change their mind. That's the election, cause that's the whole damn election. Where where right now in polls we're seeing, oh, the Independent, the other, the Teal, the one nation, the trumpet of the Patriots number, Oh it's twenty five percent, well made of twenty one in five voters is just ticking the box but hasn't actually decided. Then we're wrestlings smoke.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely, I mean you are dealing with now a situation where as I said mentioned before, it's a seat by sea scenario. But you're just going to have to just take a chill pill and just wait for the numbers to come in on election night and let's see how they all fall. Let's see how the preferences fly.
Preference arrangements will be absolutely critical in.
So many seats five point two million Austrains vote for something other than the major part is the last election. That numbers going to be a little bit bigger time proportionally, and they're going to and those individuals they're going to determine the outcome of this election.
Yeah yeah. And the way that they categorize in this poll literally Labor, Coalition, Greens and then everyone else. So you're talking about everything from Trumpet to the Patriots to
Victorian socialists, all right, and all in between. But Michael, as a person who would be sitting around the war rooms of the Coalition trying to work out, okay, that twenty percent that are just ticking the box of other you've got to get them before you even get the doubters, or do you get the doubters and then you go and get the oh I've got to vote people.
Well, you get them through the campaign and through having the best campaign, and that means the best policies that appeal to not just them, but across the board, so you can identify who they are. You don't know who they are in many respects, and you can't have policies which specifically appeal to them. You haven't got to have very strong policies on cost of living and on the other important issues that have been in that poll. But what I think works against Elbow in the end is
the fact that he's been a poor prime minister. Most people agree with that he's a poor campaigner. People know that the budget is not going to help them. There's a sea of reading coming to a government which has said, oh, we're great economic managers. We've had two surpluses which you've actually had nothing to do with them. And of course the other issue they're going to the sleeper they've got to deal with is are they going to preference the Greens everywhere? So you go back to the seat we've
talked about before, McNamara. Are they going to say to Jewish voters in Macnamara where they have a Jewish member of Parliament that Josh Burns thinks you should put the Greens second ahead of the Liberal Party. That will alienate every Jewish voter in the country. That's the five percent of them haven't been alienated already. So Elbow's got to deal with this Green preferences issue in Ryan Brisbane and
McNamara in particular. So that's the other issue, the sleeper issue, which is going to bite him in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. That the minute he has been able to fob off and say, oh, that's a national executive decision, everyone knows he controls the national executive, it's his personal decision and he's going to get flayed if he tells everyone in this country that the Greens have to be preferenced before the Liberal Party, that will probably finish him off in my view.
Well, and just to ram him the point, going back to the census of a couple of years ago, there's about one hundred thousand people who identify as Jewish in Australia. That's zero point four percent in Victoria, zero point seven In McNamara there are sixteen and a half thousand people of Jewish descent who are there. And that's number from a few years ago. That's nine almost ten percent. So exactly why that matters. And as always these boys are
on the numbers quick break back. The more I want to talk about the trump of it all, because there is an awful lot of people that are going to want to just live the American news cycle all day long. Will it have an effect? They start to say it in the focus Grips State of the Race part of Paul Murray Live This and Every Sunday Night. Thanks a watch, Thank you so much for watching. Hey can I also give a shout out to James Bolt and his beautiful
new wife Brie at their wedding yesterday, spectacular ceremony. He's a wonderful guy. He worked on this show for a very significant period of time and I love him very much. They're a beautiful couple and is an awesome when you go to a wedding and you go these two love each other, This is awesome, great venue. They're gonna have a great future. So it was a wonderful night. And yeah, yeah, I just I owned that dance for a baby. I own that dance floor. And you know what, I don't
know how many buttons came out. Whatever. That's just the way it is. That's just the way it is. Michael Krager, are you that type of guy who it doesn't matter you know one sort of apps, give me give me a man after midnight shirt is just torn asunder. I reckon coz Is I'm not even asking him. I know, couses.
Depends how many events, how many chocolate bars we've had, mate, that's the answer that question. All right, Now, let's go to your case and your case is usually a few.
Yeah, I preload as well. Wrong with it. It's like you know, the kids are sort of preloaded at home. I was preloading for days before the party. All right, now, speed abound. I want to get to Trump in a second. But when there's this big gst bailout of the Victorian government because we know how big a problem there is in Victoria, just you know, money for a government that you are so embarrassed by that you won't campaign with them.
Does this move the needle at all, this sort of money or it just all goes into the black hole that is that government?
I think you know, we're talking about the national polls and what they mean, Well, they won't pick up. It's just how serious of a problem labors facing in Victoria at a federal level. And yes, it's impacted by the state government. The numbers that we're seeing in our research consistently now suggest the swing against labor and Victoria is hovering.
You know something around eight percent two party preferred. Now we don't obviously apply that uniformly across every seat, but there are at least five to seven seats in play Yere and every month, every week the pass that goes by, there's another seat that gets added to their target seed list. So you know, I think the election will be one or lost in the state of Victoria, and it's not a good picture of the Labour side of politics.
Yeah, all right, well watch this space. Now let's get to the Trump of everything here. Now, as I said, Michael, you and I fans of the Great Man. However, according to what is publicly available, not the majority viewer of the majority of people or twenty percent of people are hiding. Certainly one hundred percent of people that come up and say hello to you and I, they're all in on the Great Man. So let's talk about the politics and whether Labor is now going to try to pivot to Dutton.
Is Aussie Trump. They're going to find a way to be running against Trump and everything Trump, despite the fact that of course the right wing of Australian politics is this said Fie that he ain't Trump enough. Also, we're in a scenario where you know, every day we wake up to the news because of the time zones and all the wild stuff out of America. Is it going to help Albo sort of running against Trump and trying to turn Duarton into Trump's proxy even though he's not well.
I'll try that, but it's got almost zero impact here. And Dutton has been very critical of Trump, as are many people in the Liberal Party over particularly over the Ukraine. And you saw that Pole very disappointing what he's doing over the Ukraine. I think he's got completely the wrong way around. If you're beating the Russians agreement first, then
the Ukraine is not the way he's doing it. A lot of Liberals are very unhappy as Dutton is note out with the tariff decision of the Americans, with what he's doing in Canada and Mexico with tariff's et cetera, et cetera. And Peter Dutton's been very critical of Trump publicly, so you know Albo can try that. Albo has to
concer and trade on a second term labor agenda. The more he talks about Trump or that type of stuff, the Electric says that it's got no bearing doesn't help me today you're talking about Donald Trump.
Yeah too clever by half.
What is happening in Australia today to put food on my table, to money in my bank account, to help pay my mortgage, right to pay my school, my kids education, pray the car registration bill, et cetera, et cetera. So the more you get diverted on the things which are so obviously just diversionary tactics, the worse he'll do. Albow needs to say, here's my second term agenda now at the minute, mate, he's done none of that, absolutely none
of that. Until he's able to do that, I think he's going to get He's had, you know, the poles of flat lined. But unless he gives people the reason to vote for him for a second time, he's Koputski, I think.
Because same question but thirty seconds of an answer. Are you starting to notice people talking about Trump and the overhang or is that a press gallery thing?
Most doing Australians to the to the United States for most of their political news. They know more about the politics in the US and they know about the policy in Australia, so that doesn't necessarily they are fans of Trump. But they that's that's where their attention is at. Now do they think that, you know, Dunton is a mirror copy of Trump, No, they don't. Is it going to have an impact? I don't think so, unless, of course, you know that the tariff war was escalating. People are
scared about inflation. But at the moment I think it's a it's a side on issue. It's not really going to impact the the the election coming up.
Good stuff, Thank you lads. I look forward to a big meta chat again next week. Very very good. By the way, the report James Bolt just sent me a text was all of the buttons. All of the buttons