From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thanks for the handover, Joe. Always delightful to have you and the rest of the team with us here on a Sunday night. All right, Sunday night, hardcore night. This is the one where we tell you the truth, get right into the details, and we don't muck around. Okay, we don't play.
You know.
Up here we're counting every grain of sand on the beach and the lead up to the election. We'll do that with state of the race in a second. The plan to make beer cheaper by getting rid of the tax of the pub. I've been banging on about it for a while and I'm an on drinker. That's how how obvious it is. And the ABC actually calls out
the Labor Party for its latest load off. But first, a story that we all know is how we started our year, which was some pretty terrible weather in North Queensland, floods, all sorts of issues that are happening there. Well, there's a follow up, and very rarely does the Australian media ever follow up, They ever go back to the same story that they go wall to war with. Well, I want to go back to it. Now because there's no food in some parts of Queensland because they are cut
off from roads. Now, this is some of the stuff that's been popping up on social media. Now, this is, by the way, not some far flung thing at the back of the proverbial burk, even though it's in New South Wales. This is in Cans Okay, this is what is happening right now. And we're talking about when people wear nuts about toot paper during the wuflu. We are talking about people's access to the basics. Now, what really gets me about this is that, oh, we can fly
politicians into the area. They can go and point at things and show maximum empathy. Well, here's an idea. Rather than an air drop of bs and insincere garbage from politicians, can we use whatever technologies we get them there to get food to people who need it. Now, this has been going on for a couple of weeks. Now, now I get it impossible to get there by road. I heard a supermarket ceo so that they were doing a bit when it comes to air drops, but clearly not enough.
Clearly not okay, how can we not have people in the areas that have got excess to be able to put it on a boat and land it into a place like cans get on this. If the politicians can get there to point it a problem, the politicians can do something to fix the problem. I've got a bit more to say about this this week, including the insurance companies in the disgraceful way that they treat people who
think that they are covered in natural disasters. It won't make the lead of the six pre mews, it won't go anywhere near the front page. But I care, you care, which is why it will stay towards the top of this program. But first, let us get to the obvious here, which is the latest opinion polls that you've heard about all day. In fact, the media are quite excited because there's a chance of a change of government tonight.
The Yugov pole of forty thousand voters has the Coalition ahead fifty one point one percent to forty eight point nine.
The modeling suggests a strong electoral advantage for the opposition.
New red Bridge pole of twenty key marginal seats shows the Coalition ahead fifty two to forty eight to three percent swing. All right, you may have heard that already ready. Than the papers today let's get into the detail then what it all means with a cause and with Kroger in a couple of minutes time, so two party preferred fifty two forty eight. Now this is an interesting rolling pole. See, both major political parties have a thing called a tracking pole.
This is where they have a look at twenty key seats, maybe a little more, maybe a little less, and they get data back each and every day about how they're doing. I remember the inside word and the tracking pole of the twenty nineteen federal election was that the only time they had a four in front of it was the final days of the campaign. Okay, so for them to have a strong vote at this point in time is really important. Now, marginal seatpoling and seatpolling can be very difficult.
But they say, the people that are behind all of this, that there is much in these stats. We'll talk about it with Coz whose company Redbridge is in part of all of this in a moment or two times at fifty two to forty eight in terms of the primary vote in these twenty seats that matter, so it might be slightly higher than the national numbers or slightly lower than national numbers, depending on whom you wish to vote for.
But if all of these twenty seats follow this, then were the four in front of it, the Liberal Party would be in a position to get very close to, if not win, an election forty three to thirty three, huge huge margin. As for the Greens at twelve and others stubbornly sitting around at twelve. Now that other factor are things like teals and all the rest of it, but obviously they are not counted in the overall twenty
seats that are mattering. Is so, yes, there is an independent vote that's floating, but it's not as keen as some may see. The good news out of all of these polls and apparently they're going to be updated I think weekly, which means like a version this every week between now and the election. The best news for Peter Dutton in all of this is that the Liberal Party is leading on two party preferred in a big way in Victoria. In fact, they are small in Victoria and
way ahead in New South Wales. That's where most of these twenty seats are and that's why the predictions are the way that they seem right now. In fact, in Victoria it's fifty eight to forty two in favor of the Libs. Right now, New South Wales fifty three to forty seven. If you are looking for the silver lining and the prime Minister's support, the Prime Minister is leading with the so called soft or leaning voters, so people have already got a hardcore idea of which way they're
going to vote. That is a very strong lead for the Liberal Party right now. But remember compulsory voting means that soft or leaning voters are ultimately where all of this is decided. So that's how we start to get to the game of fifty to fifty. Meantime, the Labor Party is in front in the two party preferred of fifty seven forty three in the quote unquote other or smaller states. There are marginal seats in South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania,
two up for grabs in the Northern Territory. So if Labor is really in front in those places, then basically the election and the big movement predicted in these polls, well, it ends up coming down to essentially New South Wales and Victoria. Now, as for the other pole that was around today, and there is a lot more granular detail in this that I know you can handle. That, I know you can follow. Remember the book he's saying, the
change of governments still the favorite position right here. So if you want to follow the bookies, nothing's changed in the past week. In fact, things have got slightly better for Peter Dutton. Even the ABC had to through very twisted fingers right today that Peter Dutton was the most likely to become the next Prime minister according to this hyugav poll. Now, may I be the first to show you the fancy graphics of the Sky News and the twenty twenty five election. Now, as you know, one hundred
and fifty seats in the Parliament. Currently the government has more than seventy six, which means they have a majority. But but, but but if this pole was true, the Liberal Party and National Party get together to get seventy three seats, meaning they only need to go shopping for three more seats to form a government. In truth, they probably need four more seats or cross benches to help them,
because you have to find a speaker. The Labor Party would be ten short, and theoretically if the Greens got together with the Independence to help the existing government, they would be returned but it would basically be every vote is right down to the wire. Now where are the seats and what are the margins? How did they get to this number? Now there is a number that suggests that the high water mark if the Liberal Party vote is currently being undercounted, it could get as high as
eighty seats. If that's the case, then of course they become a majority. If it's lower than obviously it's going to be more like sixty three seats. But interestingly, with those polls, because I've tried to double check this to show you the comparison between if they're overcounting the Liberal vote or undercanting the Liberal vote, those add up to more or less than one hundred and fifty seats in
the parliament. The only one that actually gets you to one hundred and fifty is that number that I have just shown you. So all of these would be changes from the Labor Party to the Liberal Party, nothing else. These would be the change. You can see the margins there pretty healthy as we start to get our way towards lions. So there's eight that would be there in Aston in Victoria, Gilmore, New South Wales, Bullwinkle, that's a
new seat in Western Australia. McEwen in Victoria, Robertson on the central coast in New South Wales, been Along in the northwest of Sydney. Now that's a place which the Labor Party won by I think about one thousand votes, so that moving pretty hard. Is interesting to see the seat of Chisholm, significant Chinese population there. Whether their vote will move well, that'll determine whether that seat moves or not.
They are throwing a star candidate the Labor Party at the Lions election, but that would suggest that if the Liberal Party can take that, then they would have both Bass and Lions, so that have the top left and the middle. On the eastern side of Tasmania. We keep going here to Tanging in Western Australia, Hunter where are were Shortland Patterson mcquarie and amazingly eden Manaro. Now eden Manara used to be used to be the swing seat.
Remember whichever way it voted the election went as well well. As you know. Christy McBain, who is I think the local government minister federally. I think she's a star and she could end up being a leader one day. She's doing some goofy stuff on social media that I'll show you in a second. But if her seat disappears, well, then that's going to be a sign of even greater
problems potentially for the Labor Party. I'm nervous about saying that I'd put any greater stock than just good to know in this poll, because a little bit white whale has been that the Liberal Party's going to win Hunter or the Nats are going to win Hunter. It's a little bit of a white whale where are and even places like Mcquarie. Now Mcquarie is up towards the Blue Mountains of New South Wales. Now that is a place that has been trending way far to the left. In fact,
it was a marginal seat in twenty nineteen. The Lips thought they might be able to have a crack at it. It ended up going tighter to Labor in that nineteen election, tighter to Labor in twenty two. So for them to be talking about seventy three seats that we're right on the tippy toes of what might be possible. Two other things to know about the pole. This is the Yugov pole, which was the one that the headlines were mostly focused
on today. No Teals would lose their seats. That's what makes me think it's difficult for the coalition to get there unless there is some revolution happening in the suburbs. Now, you know that's where we live. You know, that's what we know. So I don't have any real insight onto the teal world. I've only live there and live in suburban women. I know suburban people are quite peed off. But the three seats the Greens would lose, which would be in and around central Brisbane, they go back to Labor.
So I've got to say I'm not entirely sure how the Labor Party gains three seats but losers seats like Eden, Manaro and Macquarie let alone, Patterson, Shortland and Hunters. So I think this might be slightly overcooking it at seventy three seats, but apparently it is mirroring the internal polling of the Liberal Party. Peter Dutton, who will be on sixty minutes, will we'll show you some highlights of that
tomorrow night. Well, he's been very direct in the interviews that he's done both with According and Male over the weekend and this morning with our mate Andrew Clonel that he thinks not we might but we will win.
There's no doubt in my mind that we can win the election. I've been in marginal campaigns for the last quarter of a century. Not only do I think we can win, but more importantly, I think we can serve the country well.
He's also speaking to that Teal effect that most likely if the Teals are returned to Parliament, he doesn't expect them to back in the party that used to hold their seats, because of course these people are basically green. Teal is a shade of green more notably than a color of blue. So he thinks that basically he's got to be in the very close to, if not over the line of seventy six to actually be the next PM.
We'll talk with the cross Bench, but I can promise you that it's clear from their voting pattern Kate Shaney, Zoe Daniel Menique Ryant eighty percent of the time they support the Greens in so then it's never coming in all they will never come our way. All right, cost
of living the a grade issue of the election. You know that this has been the show that has relentlessly talked about it, not when it was just in the news, but every day because it's been such a punish for people, from three million people being this close to homelessness, to three and a bit million people who don't know where their food's going to come from, to the millions of people who've ridden the interest rates and the python which has taken tens of thousands of dollars out of the
money they already had, all as a result of this government. So good luck what happens when it comes to rates coming down by one hundred and fifty bucks maybe later this week, and new pole tells us what we've already known. It is the number one issue, It is the number two issue, It is the number three issue for people, which means overall it is the issue of the campaign.
According to the latest True Issues survey, eighty percent of voters still say cost of living is their biggest concern, far ahead of healthcare and housing, placing energy last.
Obviously, for most people, they view that through groceries. Now, remember the reality of inflation is that you add this month to last month, the last month, the last month to last month, to go back and have a look at basically twenty percent increases in things. Now, yes, the amount that this month is more than last month might be smaller than the amount from six months ago to seven months ago. But the point is that people only ride that roller coaster. It has only gone up and
it only continues to go up. So interestingly, Coles gave some information to the Australian newspaper over the weekend about what people are doing. Sixty seven percent of people are cutting back on eating out, fifty eight percent of people are trying to buy things that are discounted inside of the store or or forty six percent of people are trying to go and find those cheaper brands. So good luck when the Prime Minister wants to tell us that
we've turned the corner. Everything is awesome if you aren't buying what you were able to buy before this bloke became the prime minister. If you are paying tens of thousands of dollars more for your mortgage than before this bloke became prime minister, remember what their promise was. Their promise was that a labor government would lie the cost
of living where for who? Even the people that they tout as being supposedly better off, they are not better off competed to where they were a couple of years ago, which means it's time to do the Jedi mind trick. Let's change the subject if they possibly can. In the very same story where it showed the extreme majority of Australian's number one concern was cost of living, this is labor trying to revive the garbage from the two thousand and sixteen election around medicare.
If you never want to upset Peter Dunton, wave this in his face.
It's like garlic at a vampire because he hates Medicare.
And Christy McBain. Despite the fact that I think that she's got the suburban touch. I think she can be quite a star. She is playing along with every other labor MP. This is what they do, by the way, when they're at work, when you send them to Canberra. This is them sort of doing bad street theater and releasing it on the internet.
Go ahead, Dan, you can trust me.
That's what will happen to Medicare if Peter Dutton and the Liberals like they bus, they not like us, all right, So let's call bullshit. Let me show you why this is garbage. Believe it or not, it was the ABC, the ABC who have called this out as a lie. What you're about to see is what the labor parties say, is the words from Peter Dutton way back when that mean he hates Medicare. Then the ABC will point out how they had been selectively edited, literally ripping a sentence
in half. This is the base of the labor lie on Medicare. We're very clear about this.
Medicare is dead. They can't be for free. We have to pay for a world class medical system.
The thing is his words have been taken completely out of context. It's a labor attack ad that's selectively edited a twenty fourteen press conference to twist Peter Dutton's words. The edited video has been viewed by almost two hundred thousand people, but we've found an original version.
We're very clear about this.
Medicare is dead if we can't make.
It sustainable today. Seriously, the ABC is calling labor out for line where they literally just chop. I mean, I'd love to play that game. In fact, we might start to do it with albow graps because if that's the standard, but well done to at least taxpayer media. Just like a broken clock, couple of times a day, or a couple of times a week, or a month or a year. My favorite conversation of the week that we have about politics is the one we're going to have right now.
Kas Samaris is of course the man in charge of Redbridge. They are a polling company Data. They are the ones who've got this rolling twenty seats stuff. We'll talk about the mechanics of that in a second. And a man who's fought many a campaign and talked about many more on television and I love watching him each and every time. He's done it way back when at Channel nine, but
more importantly here at Sky News, the great Michael Kroger. Lads, Hello, welcome, get a So let's get into these pictures of the polls because I'll start with you and the one that you're apparently going to be rolling. Is it correct? It's twenty marginal seats and you'll check it every week.
That's right up until the federal elections called. Will will probably check it every two weeks. That's not going to be long obviously, because I think he's going to call it over the next few.
Weeks, is my gut instinct.
So once he calls it, we're in the field every week and publishing through the news limited papers every week to enable Australians to have a very accurate track on what the campaign is doing to critical marginal seats. It's exactly the same track that the major parties run during the election campaign. When I was a former party official, this is exactly the track that we ran to basically diagnose what the campaign was doing from a labor perspective.
So that's fascinating to see for once we're actually going to share the same data at the shame level of the same way. It's going to be great and well done for doing it. Well done for Irvis ponting out the cash because it's more info helps us here. Also, Michael, let's talk about where some of these findings are. Okay, if they're undercounting, then we're up towards eighty. If they're undercounting,
we're more like the high sixties. But apparently the number at seventy three, it includes some pretty big gets and they're all gets off the Labor Party.
Well, i's mate, As you know, I've said for months, I think that's on seventy two and now there's on sixty six. This poll says seventy three to sixty six, so it's taken them a while to catch up with the Paul Murray show. But I think it's a out right I think it's about right. I mean there's zero chances of Albanizi winning his own right, let's start with that. And I've said for months I think Dutton's favored to win. He could get up to a majority in his own right.
That's that's quite possible. Labor appeared to be in trouble in seats around the Hunter now and they're in trouble in seats in Victoria around the five to six percent mark like Bruce where they're in trouble. So you know, Labor have had a to you know, eleven year old state government here which is immensely unpopular and New South Wales prime ministers are never popular in Victoria, let me
just say that straight away. So a combination of those things and the appalling performance of alban Easy and the anti semitism et cetera, cetera, meant that there's a big swing on in Victoria. So the question is, you know, can Dutton get to seventy six in his own right? And he's got a good chance.
Because let's talk about the upper regions of things here, right, I've heard many people from inside the Liberal Party or the National Party. So a mate Hunter, there's a lot of people pissed off up there. Insert the thing this, Insert that I've heard the same about Shortland. I've even heard the same of course about eden Manero, but they've got a pretty high profile minister there. But presumably eden Minero is very close to Gilmore. Gilmore was a very
marginal seat for Labor. But it looks like it should be jumping back to the Libs. When you're seeing the data, and again you're not twisting it, You're just showing us what the numbers are. When you start to see that upper edge of stuff, what is that telling you? And would you be willing to bet the bedroom of the house on it? Yeah?
I mean we've run our own MRPs and we've already gone three last year, and we're going to publish more this year in addition to the data, where we're obviously publishing through News Limited. And I would say that, you know, all those Huntress electorates, maybe Patterson will definitely be line ball and contestable. Really, I think the LAB is going to get into trouble in traditional out of suburban electorates
in Sydney and in Melbourne. I'm also in Brisbane, less seats like Blair Lions in Tasmania you know, Bullwinkle obviously, and Tangy in Western Australia, possibly both being in South Australia. And then really I think it's you're not going to see many seats be gained by Labor.
So although you does have the Greens.
Losing seats to Labor Party, I find that hard to believe. I think that the Greens will hold most of their political territory.
They ain't going to grow because they've got their own problems.
Seat like Griffith's that's that high profile incumbent Green MP Max Channeler may unlikely to be losing that seat to the Labor Party.
So really we're.
Looking at the Labor Party.
You know, in the mid sixties, maybe Darton will be hovering in the high sixties, low seventies. Now I know that he says that the Tials won't side with him, I wouldn't rule it out.
Yeah, I mean.
There is if he gets close enough, it's going to be pretty hard for Labor to demand from the cross Bench almost in its entirety to side with them and hold that government together during the next term. So we're going to live in interesting times if this can be his trying to continue.
Now, Michael, one thing that is relentless in the polling is the other number. The other number is. You know, the first time I saw the other number has been quite a significant number was twenty sixteen because of the urmal effect and plenty of people who were wanting to go somewhere else. That lessened in nineteen. In twenty two, the other of course represented everything from Clyde Palmer to the Teals. That other number is pretty stubborn. That other
number is sitting pretty hard. And then once you start to get down to some of this seat by said, it shows no move in teal Land. Also some of the polling. Again, I'm sort of taking a little bit from here and a little bit from there, but it's talking about how both of the leaders, you know, they're okay,
but they're not really slamming at home. So what do you say to your fellow liberals or whoever might be watching trying to get free advice via the television right now about how to overcome this bug of the both of them they're as bad as each other. Stuff. That might be the difference between Albo minority and Dutton minority.
So you have to talk directly to the working middle class, right above the noise the media, et cetera, et cetera. And in politics, what you want is for people to sit in the homes and what's your leaders and say, I think he thinks, like I think what she thinks like, I think what he says, That's exactly what I think. And if all you're talking about as a bigger raid or a bridge or all these sort of you know, allocation of government money is it doesn't make any impression
on people. People are interested in culture. Who you are, what are your values? What do you stand for? We saw a recent example of that overseas. Who are you? What do you stand for? He thinks like he says the things that I think. Say, for example, public servants salaries in this country, public service salaries have gone through
the roof and are at ridiculous levels. Ridiculous levels. The prime mister gets four to five hundred, his boss gets his underling, the person that reports to him gets a million. So these public services. Sure, So the first leader that comes out and says we're capping public service salaries, you can't get more than the prime minister gets I'm sorry, and if you don't like four or five hundred salary,
go somewhere else. You know, once you start talking that language and talk directly to people and they think that's exactly what I think. You know, eleven million people come into America. Trump says, I'm sorry, we can't have that. People think I agree with you, mate, you know, to me making.
And it works. It works to me where it should be that It's like, okay, the reason you get paid more in the private sector is because the private sector is where risk exists. There is no risk in the public sector, which means it's harder to sack you. You get more superannuation. But the idea you get double the Prime minister is cake and eat it too stuff. Can I show you just this little moment from the Prime Minister
on Valentine's Day. Let's not get too deep into it, but there are little moments because obviously my background way back when was in FM radio, right, and obviously compulsory voting means I love everyone who's here and we're counting the grains of sand all the rest of it. But then of course there are other people who you know, what about maths last night? How good the foot are
you going to be? You know listening to listening to Kyle right, all of that stuff, and there are little moments where those people see an example of the leaders. All right, certainly we know ukuleles and all the rest of from the last election, but what about this from the Prime minister on Valentine's Day?
Have a look, roses are read violence of It's Valentine's Day and we love loop Pola.
Workingeez, because I can feel your cringe from here, my friend. That is the sort of sad am I right that there is stuff that compulsory voter land sees that that can be just as devastating as your election costings.
Yeah. Look, fundamentally, the problem Labor's got is they have a Prime Minister who has low levels of what we will define campaign IQ.
And unlike twenty twenty two, they can't hide.
Him, right, So trying to week off with COVID, we're.
Not going to be able to hide him this time and he's going to be front and center of their campaign and have to work out a way to actually try to get his mojo working.
He never had it, right, Our leaders have got that are really skilled at.
Winning, winning, winning, campaigns selling that, as you rightly pointed out, as Michael pulled out as well cultural connection and emotional inconnection between voters and what you were talking about.
If you can come across a wood like that, it's not a good start.
But also feel free to actually get the palm to rhyme. It's not hard. Okay, you just put two in at the end. But you know, I don't want to give the free advice, Michael. The funding changes that went through the Federal Parliament, I read, oh, this could be a great problem for the teals, but my memory of the detail is that none of this kicks in until the next election, not this election. So it's still jogon for them, isn't it.
Yeah, correct, don't worry about it. You will worry about it after the next election.
Mate.
That's the answer to that question. But look, let's go back to albow. Mate, here's the truth of the matter, right, no matter, no, no, I do. We'll have a look at the blake and the sunglasses by the way on elbows, right, have me show it again. Look and see how impressed that Blake is. He's thinking, I've got an absolute clot next to me, and he's been paid five hundred. So so look, the truth of the matters is Albow is a number eight batsman who's opening the batting.
That's mate.
That is that is the problem, right, that's the problem the Labor Party have got. Where would this bloke bat in the Hawk government? Right, he wouldn't even he wouldn't even be twelfth man. He'd be a backbencher in the Hawk government. You know that. That's the problem man. And they can't change him. They're stuck with him and these silly,
cringeworthy things he does, so just not impressing people. I mean, there is he said there was a cost of living crisis that was crowded by Scott and Josh Freedenberg and he would fix it. That's why I got elected. That's why I got elected. The two seventy five et cetera. And people do know that was absolute rubbish. He had no plan, no idea. He was just desperate to get into government. He got into government and where people said, where is there two seventy five? No, they got they
got a thousand, not two seventy five. A thousand extra, not a refund. So he's out of his depth. He's a poor you know, he's a poor prime minister. You look at that Ryan Park is it the new South Wales health minister the other day just on another issue, the passion with which he spoke about anti semitism with that hospital. And then Albo gets up and you just see this plotter, you know, reading lines that his staff have written for him. Wait till a public workout, mate,
that albow Super. The IPA did some work on this last year. The elbow super for the rest of his life is three hundred thousand dollars a year tax to ten percent. Wait till a public get onto that, mate, three hundred large tax to ten percent. That's not exact because there's numbers you can't even find these, notmbers. That's what it appears to be. Three hundred thousand a year for life, tax to ten percent. So if Albo loses, it'll be Siinar everybody and he's off to the beach house.
Yeah, I don't forge it was one hundred and forty thousand.
Without without it, all the rest of you, without a windmill out the front of his place.
Correct, All right now? My mum said, I love that thing you do on Sunday nights when you talk to the political people but can you end the segment by just asking them, is there any final thoughts, anything that we've left on the table, because my mum wants to know anything else on your mind we need to be talking about. Yeah.
Look, I mean the bottom line is that the next election is going to be won and lost in the outer suburbs and regions of this country.
It is where people have.
Suffered the most.
But I will make the point about interest rate cuts that are coming up, potentially coming up. Other Labor Party's put a lot of stock into that. I think they're going to be really cautious here because a lot of Australians out there feel like they've been doing it tough and if the rate does drop, it's because of their hard work. That's the sort of feedback we're getting at the moment in the elector and that is, you know, if it goes down, it's because we've been smashed.
And the other point I like to make here is.
Millions of Australians have had their savings obliterated over the last two years. That aspiration has been wiped out. It's going to take a lot of the families used to recover from So I don't think that that potential rate cup is going to be a silver bullet there some some people in the labor camp are hoping.
For well and also a number that I've been ramming down people's throats. But it's still important to note, right, if you've got four hundred thousand dollars loan, you've had to pay an extra for nine hundred and forty dollars to repay that loan each year since they came to office eight d twenty nine, one point two million, forty four thousand dollars. Good luck telling them all, but next
month one hundred and fifty bucks. Maybe if that ain't going to wash them with you, Michael, final thoughts do it for mum?
Yeah?
Now, I tell you a mum that I agree with Coz completely. I think he's analysis quite right of the interest rate reduction, which looks as if it's coming this week percent. The other problem, over god is, even if there is a reduction, Mate, you've got you've got a treasurer who's who's nowhere? Where is Jim Charmers, right, he's nowhere in the national debate. You've got someone selling the benefit of the interst rate reduction, who's just a commentator?
If it was keeping, he would have an impact. But Jim doesn't touch the sides with the electorate. That's the other problem they be have. And anyway, I wish your mum a good night mate.
All right, jud We love you Wayne sitting next to all the best. Thank you guys, do appreciate it. See you next week. Shout out for mums. We always love that. Thank you guys. All right, quick break back with more, some bold predictions for the weak ahead and a great idea. Finally someone hearing the call about the extra taxes on things like booze more in a sec roses a retinak. Imagine doing that over and over and over again. Hey, this summon's coming up on Thursday. Looking forward to it.
Make sure that you keep an eye scoy on news dot com dot au for who is going to be part of it. Looking forward to that. Now, let us get into the conversation right now. Linda Scott labor to her bootstraps, but she's free to say exactly what she thinks, which I'm sure tonight will be finally calling bs on elbow and the wonderful James astually of course, So with one nation joining us now from the beautiful part of
Australia known as your poon. So free kick to you off the start here mate one nation and Pauline I love we talked to her last week, right. I love that you're putting the ball on the tee. You're telling people what some of the ideas are telling people up front. Hay. There are people to vote for who agree with many of the ideas that are discussed on things like this program, like about the tax situation and now let's not have the excise tax on beer, on wine, on spirits when you buy it at the pub.
I promised you this last week.
Paul I said the hospitality industry was in for a wind but more so the public. And the big thing here is we're seeing people, you know, the numbers dwindle within our pubs, clubs, restaurants and rosls, the surf clubs out there. And why is that because but if you go to the pub these days, everybody who buys a schooner of beer these days, unless you're up in the NT only by a middies or small pots because it's
two bloody hot up there. But you'll know you'll pay twelve to fourteen bucks for a schooner and this is why less and less people are going to pubs. It's even more if you want to buy a rum and coke, as you've been banging on about for ages those with those bottles that you buy through the drive through. But the government isn't going to take much of a haircut here. But this will certainly inspire people to get back out there.
Mate.
I actually want people off dating apps. I want them to go to the pub and meet people the old original way.
It's a safer environment for young people to go. They can have a beer, they.
Can you know, they've got responsible service of alcohol and pubs and clubs. They've got security cameras, they've got entertainment.
I want to see bands.
Back in pubs, but the only way you're going to do that is if you make it cheap enough for people to go back to the pub. And I also want to make it more encouraging, and so does the One Nation Party for people to drink alcohol instead of take drugs.
We've gone so far.
Now where it's cheaper to go and buy an ecstasy tablet than what it is to go and have a pint of beer.
It's just outrageous.
So this is something we've promised voters, if we held that balance of power after this next election, we're going to scrap the tax on alcohol in venues across the country.
I love it. I love it, Linda, What could possibly be the problem here?
I mean, look, he's just got to explain what else is going to cut to pay for it and what the cost is.
But you know that would.
Be far too We've already made those statements.
There's ninety billion dollars worth of overspending from labor, Linda, that we're just going to take away.
Hell, we'll make sure that you give that money back to.
Pin on education.
Is that no Indigenous groups where there's a we've seen the wasted money in duplication and indigenous groups across the country. We certainly don't want to take Nina campaign against community and peace. I don't try and put that back onto us. Well, No, there's already duplications. So we've got states looking after indigenous and Labour's duplicated that to the turn of around forty billion dollars a year. And I think a program the show goes on.
He's already said, he's already said that there's plenty there, there's billions anyway, but your thoughts about the idea of what had.
To send you our policies.
There you go. Sixty three percent of a bottle of Bundy is tax, right. I banged on about this and in great lengthy detail. Right, Which is that essentially the actual only reason that the federal government so it is in a surplus. And people say, oh, it's because of the mining industry. Yes, absolutely, but the actual difference between almost a surplus and a surplus are vice taxes. Now, to me, we all understand clipping the ticket. This is
part of what government does. But surely we've lost the plot when a bottle of rum is sixty three percent tax.
Linder, Well, I don't know exactly what the tax is on a bottle of rum, Paul, but I do know that the fact is that when you don't have taxes that cover the cost of the healthcare for some of these kinds of items, then it's very, very hard to pay for them. And Australia does want to prevent the degradation of Medicare. The Labor government does want to protect Medicare. They do want to protect those services, and they do want to protect Bundy.
We'll take it from the foreign aid budget. That's that's a simple one. That'll say to six billion as this is only going to cost one and I think every viewer out there would be very happy to see the foreign aid budget cut because it's not going to good causes. We've saying that six hundred million dollars from your mob to go and put a football stadium up in the PNG region.
What puts that to the Australian people than a stadium.
In PG regional? Security?
Football brings on security, good on here?
Yeah, but this but isn't this the issue though, Linda? Where any government, right, any government understands that you know, ten million for this and fifty million for that one hundred there's all these reasons why you make the choices, right, But once it becomes a giant pot of money, as it was when Labor was in opposition, you're able to say, oh,
trillion dollars worth a debt. Well, everyone knows that a massive, massive, massive, massive, massive massive chunk of that was all of the assistance that was given to people during a pandemic when they couldn't leave the house. Right. Oh, but the line just becomes a trillion dollars worth of debt. So This is the reality of politics, isn't it When you've done this in local council as well, that it's like, okay, you
can sit there and have a programmatic conversation. But if people's perception is I've gone backwards, but you've gone forward, and you've gone forward because you haven't pulled your head in, doesn't that become a problem for Labe.
Look, I think what voters expect Paul is going into an election with less than one hundred days until the federal election, that parties will cost their policies and they'll be really transparent about what.
They will continue and what they won't.
Now, James has just been transferrent tonight he said he cut foreign aid.
That's new news to me.
Keen to understand how much and what from. I think it is important that Australians understand what political parties are planning to do, not just the spicy good news. They've also got to understand where the cuts will come from. And unfortunately it is the case right now that the Opposition, particularly Peter Dutton, has not done that. He's not outlined the cuts he's going to make to pay for the
nuclear power program. He's not outlined the cuts he's going to make in order to fund a huge number of the promises that he's already made. And that's just not telling the truth to the Australian people.
Okay, I don't know if you were checking it out before. I understand if you were studying everything before this segment happened.
But tonight I showed how even the ABC has called out one of the central lies that many an MP is saying on the internet, and people are now starting to say in public a discourse which is about the OPEDI, dut and Medicare all the rest of it, right, James, the ABC showed that there is a press statement he made in twenty fourteen where the Labor Party has literally just cut a sentence in half and then you know, like a bad edit, shoved another sentence from somewhere else,
shove them together like terrible. Right. In fact, let me play this for everyone, so everyone's up to date here, So you've heard Medicare, Medicare, Medicare. They base it off the first grab the ABC calls bullshit, and then you see the second have a look, sorry for this, weary. We're very clear about this.
Medicare is dead. They can't be for free. We have to pay for a world class medical system.
The thing is his words have been taken completely out of context. It's a labor attack AD that selectively edited a twenty fourteen press conference to twist Peter Dutton's words. The edited video has been viewed by almost two hundred thousand people, but we've found an original version.
We're very clear about this.
Medicare is dead if we can't make.
It sustainable today. Yeah, but James, I mean didn't stop all that Garbia. They were play acting in the parliament. I mean the ABC actually did its job this third weekend.
Well, it's still not worth one point one billion for that one honest bit of segment. Look, the ABC has been guilty of doctoring audio.
In the past themselves, test in Russell.
Look, Pauline Hanson put up with this for twenty years of her career where things were taken out of context.
You know.
The other thing is, you know she spent twenty odd years about out of a thirty year political career, trying to rewrite history and get not those sound bites, but get the full context. She's not a racist, And finally we're starting to see everything that she said in the past come to fruition. Peter Dutton's going to face these challenges unfortunately. But that's all Labor's got.
Our lies.
We have suffered this every single election. It doesn't matter whether it's a state campaign or a federal The problem with a lot of Labor voters they must have believed Santa right up until.
The age of thirty. You know it was real. And I know all the kids are in bed to say that, because.
One day Labor voters will wake up to the fact they've been bullshitted to by this party that they've followed so blindly most of their working careers and it's only when they come close to retirement they go, hang on a second, They've lied to me the whole way. This is why politics has deteriorated to a point now where you know, minor parties like One Nation and the cross Bench now are seeing a voter base of around thirty three percent.
They have slid further back from their.
Original vote that they got at the last election because people don't trust either of the two major parties. They just make it up as they go and if they don't have something to promote, all they do is lie, steal, beg and borrow policies from other parties whenever there is in the first place.
Linda is certainly the great difference between some of the many, many political lives of the past and today is that the capacity for the Internet to correct right. I'm not talking about you know, the sort of you know, the self appointed fact checkcerus. I'm talking about the people that go see that video. Let me explain why it's garbage. I like to see that sort of stuff and I
want to see more of that in the election. Your response in part to what James said about lifelong labor voters being let up the garden path, Look where to begin?
I mean, I know James doesn't like to look outside Australia, but if you look around the world, it is right to say that major parties vote and share of the voter is declining, and we're seeing parties around the world actually reduce their vote. This is a global phenomenon. We're also seeing global inflation. Someone's spoke to me and Sydney this week, being in England and wanting some proper you know when you go to sorry, being in America, she
wanted a proper cup of tea. She asked for a cup of milk for her tea in America, and they charged a twenty five US dollars.
That's why they got rid of the government.
Right.
This was under Trump actually, so.
It'll change books for a bit of milk.
Tell me this this week. You and your friends are full of it.
Okay, good for you. Change just make crap up again.
All right, Okay, I'm going to take a break because there is a newspile which is just dropped by the Australian. We will pull that apart for you in a moment's time here and give some bold predictions more on a secure, on a spicy. We're kind of working blue tonight. I'm sorry here on Paul Mary life. All right, thank you very much for watching. Newspile just dropped via the Australian newspaper.
More detail with Simon Benson in the morning and on the front page fifty one forty nine in favor of the coalition remains a two party preferred revote coalition at thirty eight. Remember if it's got a four in front of it, they're very close, if not quite unquite guaranteed to win labor down thirty one percent. That's a couple points off from where they were at the twenty two election. Thirty eight is well and truly up for the Libs, twelve percent for the Greens, seven percent for One Nation
One Nation. By the way, in some of that marginal seat polling even stronger than that, So I had imagine the assumption about preferences is going to be part of why they make the conclusions they do about Peter Dutton. The number that is really interesting to me thirty four percent of people say it's time to re elect the government.
Fifty three percent say it's time for a change. Obviously that includes Greens, that includes One Nation, that includes Libs, right, but the fact that the people who want to back in the current mob doesn't even crack forty. There we go, James, your thoughts. Obviously from a one nation perspective, there was even better poling around this weekend.
Yeah, look, you Gavis certainly come out and I was absolutely flabbing over forty thousand people surveyed to get the results they did, and this just backs that up again. Look, it's encouraging for one Nation, particularly for those people at home that may be sort of thinking do we give one nation to.
Aid or not?
Here it's super important in the Senate, because Peter Dutton may win government in his own right in the lower House, but unless we see a change of dynamics in the Senate, you were going to see the Greens govern with Labor the upper house, and that will destroy Peter Dutton.
In actual fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it.
Was a cause for another double dissolution within twelve months of that government taking place. So it's important that we get a re evaluation of the Senate. The only way you're going to get that is voting for other like minded conservative parties that will work with the Coalition if they're to win government and.
Support good legislation.
But also to you know, we're not afraid to say to the coalition, hey we don't support that, go back and mend it. Will help you amend it to pass it. And that's the logical thing to do. We've proven over two terms of government with the Coalition that we can do it. And i'd encourage people to vote one nation in the Senate in particular.
And I always say about your Senate vote, which is that your Senate vote is the insurance that you take out against the governing party. Right, So if you want somebody who's going to be a little closer, a little more pure in your philosophy, then you give them the power upstairs and you let people and then you know, you give the preference downstairs, because that's where it ends up forming a government. But Linda, your thoughts on this, what's stubborn? What's not? Your thoughts on again? We are
a ways out. There is no election tomorrow. But I was reading I think it was Bob McMullen. It was a former Labor senator in one of the websites over the weekend talking about, oh, well, if you do this and do that in three months out and no one knows, he's got to have it by May, right, so he's got to announce it in March, or he may announce it at the towards the end of February. But we're basically on top of an election now, and I don't know whether these numbers are going to move dramatically in
the next few weeks. But Albo would need to look.
Labour won the last election on a primary vote that had a three in front of it, and I've always said for many months now on this show that Labor I think will go into this election as the underdog. Of course, they've only been in government for one term and so many of the things that James and even Peter Dutton lament.
About actually were policies of.
The coalition government. But nevertheless, this is going to be a hard election for Labor. I do want to say on the minor party issue, it was interesting to me actually that Joe Hockey, of course, the former Liberal treasurer, came out last week and said that he would prefer Labor to be in government then there be a vote for a minor party, you know, like the tials to form government with one of.
The major parties.
So I do think that's interesting that even the Liberals are saying, don't vote for minor parties. They're dangerous and they can create these really happy to see us get answers here Joe Hockey say that, and look.
I love I love Joe, but he's also free to his seat of North City doesn't exist.
And can I also just say, the mayor of tomorrow, Rick Ferman, has just texted me mate, I'm okay.
For your lovely kind words.
I love hearing love it debate Australia, and I want to say it's delightful to have you all tuned in tonight.
Give me thirty seconds on this one.
James, friend, I reckons he paid twenty five bucks. I don't want a un.
Friend, James. I know that's hard to believe.
All right now, Linda, I do want to get into bold predictions. But you're about to head off to the United States or with a whole bunch of other people INTERMN the superannuation industry, and you're sitting on some of those boards.
Yeah.
Look, I think it is important in the global context where there's been this discussion with President Trump about the introduction of tariffs, that superannuation funds across Australia are going to go to the US next week to hold talks with the new administration and of course have a look at investment prospects for Australians and their retirement funds.
We invest globally.
Much of Australia's pension funds are doing this all across the world. But I think it is important to see our superannuation sector engaging with the Trump administration.
We're obviously working with the.
Australian ambassador in the US and this is a really important thing for the superannuation funds to be doing in our members' interest, but also in the national light.
I know Karen says he can get you in. I'm just going to say, if you want the photo of me and Trump in the Oval office that's going to help here, you can take it. I'll give it to you. You can give it away. Yeah, all right, Thank you James, Thank you Linda. We'll do the prediction thing again when I've got more time next week. Thank you guys to appreciate it. Royal Report next onime you Telly, and then we are back. Thanks again to James Morra for taking care.
Had a lovely date night with the misses just before Valentine's Day. Toda