From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray life, the.
Ultimate OSSI pronounce of course matin dah.
That's it. And you can fit.
Into either of them. Whichever way you want to go, it will be all right. Or if you want to pretend that you don't remember somebody, you just refeard of them.
As old mate. O, old mate? What about old mate?
All right now, before we get into anything else, I am going to toot a little horn if we had one here. Both sides of politics have agreed with what we've been talking about for three years. It's time for automatic tax returns for people who desperately need them.
I'll explain the details on both.
But finally, and I don't care who went first, who went second, who responded to who you are going to end up either way, there's a government formed with an automatic tax return. Excellent stuff, all right now, State of the Race, hardcore night on Sunday Night. When we get into hardcore politics, all the data deep dives, everything from news poll you gub Redbridge, there's a whole bunch of data. The wonderful day Lee three years ago, she's the KK killer.
Can she hold off labor book? You say so? We'll talk to her a little bit later.
And this time tomorrow night, I live a television dream because I'm doing a show from the Seagulls Club in tweed Heads. I've supported them many times through the Pokeys, but tomorrow night we do it with content, the Mavericks, Pauline Hanson, Matt Canavan, Bob Catter. This time tomorrow and night the people who truly will shake up the next parliament, regardless of who ends up being the government after that election, which is now just twenty days away, Just twenty days
until the federal election. Three weeks and counting. We are almost of the halfway period, as we will be about Tuesday Wednesday of this week, nine days until the first.
Boats are cast.
They would be cast next Monday, but because of the holiday Monday and Easter, it is nine days away, not this but next Tuesday.
This week we.
Will start to see the how to vote cards. This week we will start to see the preferences. This week we will know how many people are running in certain seats and we can start to put together the picture of what may or may not happen in twenty days from now. Both the parties had made campaign launches Normally these are saved until the very last minute, and that's for organizational reasons, but also it's to get a big.
Blast before election day. But as you know.
Early voting, half of people all vote early, so now you've got to get the big bang in before. They wouldn't do it on East Sunday. So that puts it forward to today in Perth, the Prime Minister had his formal launch for a second term in office. Now remember the history that Albo is playing for. If he is re elected, then he'll be the first prime minister to be re elected in this country since two thousand and four, the first prime minister to go to two elections to
win back to back elections. That's huge history, the first of the Labor Party since nineteen ninety three. Now I think this bloke, he is not the person who should be getting that place in history. But the Polese said seem to suggest that is what is about to happen. But nothing is inevitable. Now for his announcements today, well, there were lots of people who were out and about and before they got to anything they were going to do,
there was another person on their list. Remember this is the Labour part launch put simply it's their advertorial and if you turned onto the morning show, you wouldn't see advertorials that mentioned the other product.
This much.
Peter Darton, Peter Dunt, Peter Dunt, Peter Dutton.
Peter Dart and Peter Dutt and Peter Dart, Peter dut Hee did Dut, Peter Dut, Peter Dutton, Dart and Dart and Dart and Pitter dup Peter dune Head, Dart and Dun.
Dun Dun Dart and Peter Dutton.
Before I tell you about this cup, can I tell you about this other cup?
Oh, this other cup, ste this cup before, before this cup? This can you go?
I thought you were trying to sell me this one, And yes, I know they both look kind of the same. That's the point for many Australians right now now. One of the first decisions this government made was to get rid of the load of middle income tax off set. I mean, the only person in Australian media who has relentlessly for three years bang on about this being a terrible decision because while it was a COVID era policy, it should have been kept all the way through these
past three years. And that was an automatic tax return for people, and this amount of money previously was fit fis teen hundred dollars. The lips say it's going to be twelve hundred dollars, and Albow now says that it's going to be one thousand dollars. Now, this policy matters, and it really matters because according to Finder the Finance website, forty three percent of people in this country, sorry, thirty four percent of people in this country use their tax return to.
Pay for a major bill.
Well, there's plenty of people who have major bills that are much bigger than a thousand or twelve hundred dollars. For an awful lot of people in Australia that one thousand dollars could clear a credit card, that twelve hundred dollars could pay for a couple of bills. It could meet You might be able to go and buy a new appliance. You might be able to do something to fix up the car. It might take the pressure off the family that little bit when you have no other
money to borrow. That's why this policy should be there, because the single largest source of revenue too the federal government is the average worker. Pay as you go. It's not company tax. It's not excise, it's not the GS, it's not money from multinationals, and it's not from mining companies. It's from you and me, the people who pay their
tax weekly, fortnightly or monthly because we work for somebody else. Now, I think the Prime Minister did this because they got win that the Liberal Party was going to do it. The Liberal Party's going to do it because in part we have kept that campaign going for three years. So
you know what, I don't care about the credit. I just care that people who need it will have one thousand dollars coming back or twelve hundred dollars coming back whoever forms government, and that's going to help millions of people across the country.
Here's the PM's.
Version today, I announced that a reelected labor government will create a new one thousand dollars instant tax deduction.
Great, I said, I praise him.
If they did it at fifteen hundred, I wish it was fifteen hundred, but they've put it.
At a thousand.
Now, this is a very good policy because it puts money in the hands of the people who need it. I don't understand why it's not means tested, but it goes from the people at the very top all the way to the people who need the money more at the very bottom. But a bigger and better offering comes from the coalition. I'll get to that in the moment's time.
But I know that there are people who are willing to vote somewhere for the first time if it's a way of getting towards the system where people are going to be able to buy their first house. The Labor Party version of this is that they want to say that if you're a first home buyer and you buy something about the median level of price in your capital city or local country town, that you can do it
with just a five percent deposit. The difference will not be made up for the government, but essentially the government will go as the guaranteur. The government will end up spending billions of dollars on a form of homeown insurance. Now, this is a dodgy policy if people end up defaulting on their loans. Low dock low deposit home loans cause massive problems in the United States. But if you're somebody who thinks that the deposit is the problem, well, Elbow's trying to sell to you.
Today.
I announced that under a Labor government.
You'll be able to.
Buy your first time with just a five percent deposit.
Now, ignore those who only count the election promises and spending from the start of the election. Those are the ones that want to make it look like the Libs are spending like drunken salors. Remember, the Prime Minister has been making election promises since January.
A seven point two billion dollar announcement today five million dollars ten million dollars, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollars, three hundred and fifty million dollar, two billion dollars, thirty seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar, two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar, four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars, three point four billion dollars, two point eight billion dollars, two hundred
million dollars, one hundred and fifty million dollars, one billion dollar, two hundred and forty five million dollars, six million dollars, three million dollars, ten billion dollars.
Now we know the way it's been going, but there is a very good chance that either whereas still it to stop the bleeding moment for the coalition, or if people are still genuinely undecided, they might start thinking about the coalition because if there are voters that are exclusively going off price, exclusively focused on the number one issue that has been there for the past three years, cost
of living. Peter Dutton made big announcements today again that automatic tax return and this one again for millions of people. But this one is able to be twelve hundred dollars as an automatic tax return because everyone earning under one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars gets it. For labor, it's everyone above one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars as well.
Peter Dutton with what I.
Think is a game change, and again if it's a met to election, if both of them are agreeing that you deserve and certainly the people who need the money more than most, some form of automatic payment back each and every.
Year, great excellent high five.
A coalition government will deliver a one off cost of living tax off said.
This will reduce the.
Amount of tax paid by millions of Australians and it will be up to twelve hundred dollars. Around eighty five percent of all Australian taxpayers will be eligible for and will benefit from this reduction in tax brilliant.
Love it, love it, love it. Love it.
Now, if you're somebody who thinks that the issue when it comes to kids getting their first home is being able to afford the mortgage in those early days, well this is the pitch that the Coalition is going to go at. They are saying that the interest payments on a loan for the first few years of the average first home buyer in this country, where you can deduct that off your tax bill.
A Coalition gobet will allow you to deduct interest payments on the first six hundred and fifty thousand dollars of a mortgage against your taxable income.
Brilliant.
Now they say there's no choices there all of a sudden, No, there are choices here. Okay, Now, remember five dollars in fifteen months. Will how long before five dollars a week ends up at a scenario where you get anywhere close to twelve hundred dollars, Well, that's what the best part of five and a bit years. That is the first off offering in the first year of the coalition government. On top of that, now just think about this as the election posters now you and I we pay attention
to think about the little election posters. Okay, you're going to now have the Liberal Party saying half petrol tax automatic, twelve hundred dollars tax return, and you can write the interest off a first home buyer off your tax. That's the first of their cost of living suggestions. Plus they'll turn around and they've released a policy that promises lower power prices, and that is going to be a compelling offering to millions of people. Again, there are those of
us that pay attention to every little detail. There are those who pay four fifths to bugger all attention. There are those that will get something in the mail or they'll see something on election day that could move them
right on state of the nation. I'm going to talk the raceist should say, we should talk a lot about what the data is telling us, not just about which way people are leaning, but how committed are they to their vote, how up for grabs are people and can that actually change the numbers not across the country, but maybe in the twenty places that matter the most. May be in a state like Victoria, that will be the
difference between majority and minority for the labor government. Even if the polls continue to be as good as they currently are for the Labor Party. And as for the central argument of the coalition campaign, well, the Labor Party is mentioning Peter Dutton every thirty seconds. This is the key question that there is only one answer for, regardless of who you are thinking about voting for in maybe as soon as nine or maybe twenty days time.
So I want to ask you today do you feel better off after three years of Anthony Albanezi.
Now in a second, I'm going to as always go through the media in surprise, surprise, software questions. The Prime Minister tough as nails when it comes to the alternative prime Minister. But I want you to see how the ABC was immediately into spin mode. This is what they did in their live coverage as soon as the speech finished. The first question asked by the hosts to the other person, the co host of the broadcast, and where did they go?
What did you think of Peter dun Yeah?
I mean I think it was a pretty long speech, actually almost Donald Trump length speech, but not quite.
We just have to mention Trump Trump, trum trump trum Trump, Trump. Does the day end in the white Trump? Did you have three miles today Trump, have you ever had a diet Trump? It's their campaign launchers. They are always long speeches,
Prime Minister. I think about forty four minutes, a little bit longer when it came to Petter dut But this is them giving a long pitch to the nation that of course will be cut up and only shown him very very very small bites on the six PM news, sladly larger bites on social media, and then in lots of different ways than thirty second ads around the country see straight away the ABC. It's all got to turn to Trump. A reminder about the real cost of labor
in the past three years. All of these don't come from far right wing thing tanks. These are not numbers pull out of the backside. These are the numbers you need to know. Fifty four thousand people lost their job last month. That's in the one that we got. The latest numbers were for February. One point six million homes are currently in mortgage stress. Two out of three people can't afford their rent. Three million people are on the
verge of homelessness. Three point seven million households will run out of food. Remember it's the coalition promising more money for food bank. The government no such announcement because they don't think there's the votes in it. Twenty nine five hundred businesses have gone bust. The Labor Party pushes down the insign asset right off to one thousand dollars. In game may have reviewed it back up to about ten thousand dollars. It's thirty thousand dollars for everyone in small business,
in business everywhere. If you want to something for your business, write it off against your tax.
You see.
The liberal message is you know how to spend your money better than the government does. Highest supermarket prices ever in the past three years, no plan to change that under the government, just to pretend that they're going to be able to stop supermarkets taking the proverbial the highest taxes on alcohol, smoking and petrol. Only one side of politics is planning to reduce petrol taxes. The biggest budget
deficits are on our way. Budget deficits not for the next five ten but for forty years, and under this government one point two t four trillion dollars of debt.
Now something.
I'm getting a lot of feedback, and I really appreciate people who stopping in the street to talk about things or lots of people that are writing me emails and thank you so much, lots of suggestions coming my away, politicgidanews dot com dot are you and I know how excited you are for tomorrow night's Mavericks event. I am super pumped. The tweed is natural, pul Murray Live Territory and these other people who I know you want to
hear from tomorrow night, this time here on Sky News. Well, the media, well they don't want to upset the apple cart. Now I've explained over a few nights, so I apologies if you think there's some repetition here, but for some people they might be watching for the first time. One of the ways that the media stays soft with Albo is not just because they agree with him, not just because they want to vote for him or probably the Greens. It's because they think he's going to win the election.
And if he wins the election, then they can remain on the teat of information coming from the government, don't upset the apple cart, which is why they don't upset the apple cart with the questions they ask a Prime minister who should be being held responsible for all of those things that I've just said, no questions about homelessness, no questions about people running out of food, no questions about businesses running and hitting the wall.
It's questions like this.
Approaching week three is the clear front runner in this election campaign.
The opposition says you've become cocky. Are you cocky or confident?
I'm just wondering what you will have to say to us to them tomorrow in your launch that might inspire Australian voters about the few?
What is it about way that makes labor so strong here?
What is your core message that you hope cuts through to distracted voters?
How badly do you want to be PM after May third?
Really, this is their opportunity to ask the Prime Minister all of those things that are on that list that I mentioned to you, each and every two out of three people can't afford their rent. One point six million people are in mortgage stress, thirty thousand businesses have disappeared, petrol taxis, smoking taxes, alcohol taxes and deficits for the.
Next forty years.
How badly do you want to win?
As for the questioning of the alternative Prime Minister last week, they were inferring that the Peter Dutton was sort of at fault for his father's heart attack.
So where are they this week?
This Paul candidate selection came to costing your shop the lodge.
If labor is pulling away, and so is your ultra marginal seat of Dixon. Maybe in a bit of jeopardy, are you concerned today you're playing it a little too safe?
John Howard, Kevin Radan, even more recent prime ministers I think.
Campaigned a lot more openly than you. Is you're shine away from that?
A reflection of your security telling you you can't or is it a reflection of your political minders preferring you don't cop a rotten egg?
Now we all know what Peter Dutton's thinking, mate bugger off, But of course he has to sit there, has to take it, and he does over and over again. And the rockstar that is just into Nampaginper Price has been
by Peter Dutton's side. Why because millions of people around the country believe in her and see her as a hope of the side, see her as stealing the spine, see her as a person they'd loved ad around a cabinet table much more than many of the fools that are there when it comes to the Labor Party and she used four words in a media event yesterday that meant it was headline news you see to number jinper prices marga moment lasted only two seconds, long enough to
turn the intent I ended messaging right off track.
Just enterprise raised eyebrows with this Trump star remark, we can.
Make Australia ride again.
Oh my god, somebody wanting to make Australia great. Oh oh, how terrible. Now that's all of the other channels. I know I'm beaten up on them a lot, but she's I didn't realize until I had paid the attention that we do to just how bench Channel nine News is in favor of the Prime Minister, but definitely against Peter Dudden, because I want to show you how they covered that moment. Now, she's in the middle of a speech, like all speeches when you don't have notes, you're thinking off the top
of your head. You're trying to say things to fire people up, and she said the four words, the four dirty words you're not allowed to say. When even the ABC turns around and says and a Trump, We're in a speech where you don't mention Trump. Trump is everywhere including even when I'm mucking up a sentence and again talking to you with no words on the screen a challenge. I'd love to see people in the rest of the media do. But that would upset the Apple cart, wouldn't it.
This is our channel line covered that four seconds, those two seconds, four words of infamy.
We can make Australia rate again. Is that an ode to Donald Trump?
No?
If I said that, I don't even realize I said that.
But no, But similarities with the Trump campaign not ending there, race.
Gender, sexuality, None of that is going to matter. What's going to matter is the right person.
For the job.
The senator vowing to vigorously pursue government efficiency and conservative bugbears.
They are learning in doctrination as opposed to our education. We will conduct an audit into the spending in indigenous affairs, ridiculous grants like colonizing breastfeeding.
Outlining a wish list of radical change woo.
How for hat.
Of course, she is paying the price for leading the No campaign, for upsetting the Apple card, forgetting the results that the elite did not want, especially being an Indigenous woman who, unlike an activist from sidneyl Melbourne, lives in Alice Springs, has represented Alice Springs on its local council, represents the entire Northern territory when it comes to her job in the parliament.
Oh, if you talk.
About any of those things that they're now magathinks you see how they work. They move the goalposts. You say, hang on, let's move the goalposts back. You're the one fighting the culture war.
Well I've got a bit.
Of time here, so let me actually show you what she said. That Channel nine then clipped and clipped and clipped and turned into that little collection of orange man bad just into price even worse because she's I don't know, betraying the cause. The first one here, the moment that apparently was the most newsworthy. Now, of course it's up to the reporters to decide what is the most newsworthy thing. They are so lazy that they thought this was the moment.
But what context in which were the dirty words said?
I'm so proud to be able to stand beside and to ensure that we can make Australia rate again, that we can bring Australia back to its former glory, that we can get Australia back on track.
Oh, hang on in the Channel ninth story, they made it seem like she didn't use the official campaign slogan, except she did what two three sentences after she said the one that they.
Were looking for. Again, this is how bent.
To the left Channel nine is, and they're doing it every single night, and there's a lot of people that are seeing it, and more people will see their version of it than me getting here and showing you how they bend it. What about school indoctrination? What was she actually talking about there?
We're hearing from students that they are learning in doctrination as opposed to education, that they've been forced to have to provide a welcome to country within their essays for crying out loud, and they if they don't provide an appropriate form of welcome to country or acknowledgment of country, that they will be marked down.
So she actually quoted an example of what is happening in the education system.
Oh, but it's some fever dream of the right wing.
And when it comes to efficiency in government, what would be an area that we spend tens of billions of dollars each and every year, yet by every closing the gap indices we seem to be doing worse every year, despite the fact of the cumulative hundreds of billions of dollars. I wonder if the lady from Alice Springs might have some more context to what Channel nine served up as some dogy comment.
We have announced policies around the fact that we will conduct an audit into the spending in Indigenous affairs and the Indigenous Affairs Portfolio. We will establish a Royal Commission to the Sexual Abuse in Indigenous communities because we know that Indigenous children experience the highest rates of exposure to domestic and family violence. We know that they experienced the highest rates of sexual abuse and neglect.
In this country.
We also know that we have the highest rates of youth incarceration when it comes to Indigenous children.
Okay, so now that you've heard all of the context, and the reporter who was standing there heard all of those words too, does this feel just a little dishonest to you?
We can make Australia rate again. Is that an ode to Donald Trump?
No?
If I said that, I don't even realize I said that.
But no, But similarities with the Trump campaign not ending there, race.
Gender, sexuality, none of that is going to matter. What's going to matter is the right person.
For the job, the Senator vowing to vigorously pursue government efficiency and conservative bug bears.
They are learning in doctrination as a host to education. We will conduct an audit into the spending and indigenous affairs, ridiculous grants like colonizing breastfeeding.
Outlining a wish list of radical change.
All right, let's get to say to the nation something I love to do every single Sunday. And there's plenty of data to get to, but I got to talk about this because this is how people get their information. For all the talk about social media, good old fashion is still where lots of people are because Samaras, of course, the boss of Redbridge, doing great work with almost everyone in the media at the moment he catches his glasses well, and none of the great Michael Kroeger, Michael, before we
get into it anything else. And I know the person who's complaining about the rest of the person who's losing the game. But when it is as obvious as that, people need to see that this ball is being spun hard.
Look you looked at Albo's launch today, I mean, oh my goodness, I mean it was just full of lives and dishonesty, Dutton's cutting this, Dutton's cutting that He's got secret cuts here and mad care and I'm sitting there gobsmack by the sheer audacity. I thought I was watching Bill Shorten in twenty sixteen, and no one picks him up on this. But I think when you look at the Poland news pole tonight, which shows labor ahead, that doesn't that doesn't sort of fit with all the reports
that we get from marginal seats. And I wonder whether labor having causes you on this. I wonder whether labor having run a very traditional labor campaign right about Medicare and the usual labor issues. I wonder whether this is labor voters returning to labor, Labor the voters that have drifted off, maybe to the Greens, a Socialist Party, of the Animal Justice Party, or some other freaks. I wonder
whether these labor are the labor voters returning home. Because I don't know that labor are appearing appealing to the outer suburbs. I really don't. They certainly not in Victoria. So that's my take on news pole tomorrow. This might be labor increasing its vote in labor seeps.
Paul.
Yeah, okay, so cause I won't get you to comment on the media because again you've got relationships with plenty of them. I don't want to buger up the business model, but I think the evidence is rather obvious for all to see.
There, at least with one of them. But let's talk here about NEWSPAP.
Newspoul tonight fifty two forty eight in favor of the Labor Party. It's primary vote thirty three is exactly where it was at the last election. The coalition's vote is one point lower than the last election. Greens same place. But guess who's up one nation? How many weeks in a row before somebody is going to realize this ain't a trend, this is actually happening. And then the other that is out there as well. They also asked a question about what do you think is going to happen?
Sixty four percent say Labour's going to win, thirty six percent say the Liberals are going to win. But if it's what do you want to happen, it's a bit more fifty to fifty. Back to the question there that Michael had to say, we are not seeing a surge in the labor vote. We are seeing a retraction in the liberal vote. So are they running up where they already are winning or are they stabilizing where it was fifty to fifty a few weeks ago.
Mate, Yeah, pretty much just stabilizing their primary vote. Probably recall I reckon it would have been a few shows ago where we talked about a Labor ad campaign that they put together, and I made the point that they're really focusing on their base. They're trying to bring that base that they had that were losing to minor parties back. That's been their focus all along and they've been able to bring that back. So it's a very stable primary.
Now.
It's a little bit higher than the federal.
Election in twenty twenty two, but it's thirty three to thirty two percent, give will take. That's where it's at. Flip side, the coalitions losing votes to minor parties. So that's what's going on here. Two party preferred vote books looks better for the for the Labor Party because the
coalitions losing votes to minor parties. That is the main trend here in our key seats track for News Limited coalition has dropped seven percent in their primary vote between our first wave and our most recent wave, five percent of that has gone to minor parties. And so my point is that we're still looking at a very tribal electorate.
There's going to be five point eight million Australians who don't vote for the majors at this next election based on the polls, whether it's Ours, whether it's Newspole or anyone else. So really, the way the Coalishing can fix this problem pretty quickly is to bring some of those voters back that they've lost to minor parties.
If they do that, then we're probably having.
A different discussion about which seats they are able to win in the outer suburbs of our big cities.
Yeah.
Now I don't know how this graphic is going to look in presentation, but I want to everyone to see over a lot of different polls, all of the different primaries that all of.
The different parties have been collecting.
And the trend is all fairly obvious and it speaks to what Cause and Michael had been talking about. But let's go Redbridge News poll Morgan essential you gov. The highest pole at the moment for the Labor Party's primary is one point above and that's the green one. Point above the twenty twenty two election. Everything else shows either very close or a little lower. The essential number also includes a don't know factor, so that's why those numbers
are a little out of whack compared to others. You can also see there that red Bridge is actually saying that the Liberal vote is slightly higher than it was in twenty twenty two, but you can see in other areas it's down, way down, or again pretty much the same, very stable for the Greens. I'm going to say it again about one nation everyone five percent of the last election.
It's either up in the Morgan Pole by one, it's up by three in yugov or News poll, or it is up well by four In essential one nation is put into with independent and other I think in the overall of the red Bridge. But you can see those other numbers which were nine and now fifteen, twelve, six, eight or fours.
Is a bit of a crapshoot.
About what you count and where you count A little later to not I want to talk about the Palmer effect, who it helps, who it hurts. It definitely is pulling lower maybe half of what they were able to get at the last election. And I think that's going to be worth talking about here. But let's talk about the
launches and what happened today. Now, I'm really glad that the bleating and carrying on and relentless winging of a fat block on television for three years about the load of middle income tax offset to some way comes back
in some form regardless of what happened. So Hallo freaking Loujah, thank the fat boy when you get your thosand or twelve hundred bucks all right, Because the reality is, while most people that talk on TV that money might be a very very good lunch for an awful lot of people, that is enough to pay a significant bill and during cost of living for all the one percent of this and five bucks a week ay or twelve hundred bucks bang straight on top.
That means that's going to really help people.
So let's talk about those offerings and then we'll get into the housing of everything. Because again, when people have been sitting there saying what are they doing for me?
What are they doing for me?
Now that both of them are either going to say one thousand or twelve hundred bucks, that is actually I think going to get a few heads nodding and some eyes actually opening in these focus groups.
Yeah, a little bit, but they'll still probably tell us in their band aids. The big announcements, in my opinion, of the two housing pitchs, right, and the two housing pitches kind of do to two very different things. For the labor camp, they sing to the rent class out there. But the problem strategically for labor there is a lot of the renters that may find this appealing live in the middle urban parts of our large cities, so these
are seats that labor kind of already occupies. However, the flip side the Coalition pitch, which is out of suburban areas, new homes being built in greenfield areas where first home buyers.
Could actually use it as a tax.
Right off in terms of their interest rate.
That will appeal, for example, the Indian diaspora in both Sydney and Melbourne. Lots of those young, growing communities out there that they're targeting right now. So so strategically Colison probably did a better job at pivoting their campaign to the types of people that they need voting for them at this coming election.
Yeah, I agree.
Basically it's deposit versus repayments, and obviously one is a one off one is an ongoing for.
The multiple years.
Michael, again, this is your conversation about who are you pitching to, who's still out there, who's available. And I think anything that's ongoing is always better off than the initial And that's been part of the negatives that the Labor Party's thrown at the Libs. I think it's very hard to find a negative in an ongoing tax break for somebody in the first few years of buying a house.
Well, first of.
All, make congratulations on LIMO being restored. You have been banging on about it three years. Low and income.
You all thought I was off in the wilderness.
You've been being on ab ad for three years, so finally everyone's come to agree that you're right. But look, if you go into housing policy. Any time mate Labor is talking about the economy or housing policy, they lose ground. Why because it's one of the that's the number one brand ect with the Liberal Party, which is economic policy. So as long al Zaba's talking about those things, he's not being helped, and he's not being helped because of
the two hundred and seventy five dollars promise. He's playing catch up. Secondly, when they're talking about housing policy. Labor have no don't have a brand equity in housing policy. This space dates back to the nineteen forties when ironically, how many easy he quoted Ben Schiffley today, I mean I'm a goodness. I mean John Deadman, who was the Minister for Housing National Reconstruction in the chiff Lee government, was the guy that said he opposed he opposed home ownership.
Labor opposed home ownership because it made people little capitalists. And that that phrase, you know, soiled labour's appeal in the first home owner and the home buyer market for decades and it still resonates today. Labor are not homeownership building homes. It's not the brand equity of labor. And you know men under Mensi's homeownership went it from fifty four to seventy four percent. And it's always been a
strong brand equity for the Liberal Party. So Albo's policy today he announced the five percent depositive scheme, which is already policy, Elbow, it's it's been in for five years, mate, although he's tinkered at the margins, but that policy existed for five years. And secondly, Paul, he's going to build one hundred thousand homes with disused or government land somewhere one hundred thousand homes. Elbow is going to build one
hundred thousand homes. What with unionized labor. I presume they'll all have to be unionized because that's essentially what's happening in the child pre sector. So these all have to be unionized jobs in you know where, Albow, what you know, vacant government land? What next next to train lines? Mate?
So Albow, when you say to the public Albow's is going to build one hundred thousand houses, people are going to go, oh really, I mean not according to the Future Fund housing only future Fund, which has got financial troubles before. It's builder's first house. So Michael Suger kicked a big goal today on the housing policy, and that didn't help labor today.
I agree, and remember those who remember their political history at twenty nineteen, it was the first home buyer stuff that Morrison did in the last week of the campaign that actually.
Moved the track.
That little tracking number they're all obsessed with, just a little bit towards a number that meant the impossible became probable. Nothing is inevitable. Trends are not the opposition's friend. They we'll all wait and see together, all right, quick break back with more lots more with these fellas than the great Dary she got rid of KK. Can she knock off the Labor Party a second time? I say, bloody oath and we'll find out how next. Hardcore politics with
blokes who love it as much as you do. None of than Michael Kroeger, cost Samarius Causes, with red Bridge and a legend around these parts.
Of course, the Victorian Liberal Party is Michael.
Now let's ask about Victoria and about whether states are moving. Seems Western Australia getting better for labor, so much so that they could not lose any seats of the four they won last time. Victoria, the question mark is still there. New South Wales it's a little more proliberal than some people are giving a credit for. But this is where the movement is. South Australia pretty strong for labor. Tasmania pretty much the same, with no movement there. See what
happens in the Northern Territory Queensland kind of expected. So I'm answering my own questions where I should have just said, is anything happening in Victoria?
Cause Yeah, there is, Yeah, there is our CACS track.
Basically everything seems okay for labor across the board, except when you come to Victoria. It's still about an eight percent two party preferred swing against in key seats back from ten. Yeah, and so look it's come down a bid but not much. We are seeing some improvements for labor in some seats, but they're still.
Going to lose seats at this rate.
And I think that once the CUT starts getting its campaign sorted out, and I think that they started off today to do that, they're going to put pressure on labor Victoria.
In a very significant way.
So at the moment, I think, you know, they could lose.
Three seats and I wouldn't rule out labor being in trouble versus the Greens in McNamara and Wills either.
Yes, very good point, very good point, because of all in preference deals and in around all of that, apart from some of the cultural issues. Michael again to Victoria, are you starting to see what was a great night as a night now?
I hope he's right at eight percent because that'll wipe out the Albanezy government. If it's eight percent two party, we've therred look, I think we're going to win Aston Chisholm and McEwen. I think Ku Yong is looking. You know, more than a fifty percent chance that Amitia Ham will
win that again today, Monique Ryan. If people didn't see the insiders on that other the government run channel whose name dare not be spoken here, Monique Ryan, the Teal Green okay, the ABC weel pay for the Teal Green member in key on Monique Ryan, I think she put in one of the worst performances I've ever seen by a member of parlat in my entire life. And that
goes back a long way. When asked about by David Spears about housing policy, she said, we need some visionary housing policies, and Spears, in his typically wonderful understated way, said what type of visionary policies? Well, well, she said, just visionary visionary policies. David said, yeah, what policies? Not
a cluemt. She didn't have a nodding clue. And then she got into terrible trouble later on when she was asked about whether the Teal should declare if they're paying social media influences to promote them, should that be disclosed? And she couldn't answer. She said she didn't have an opinion. It was an absolute train wreck. So that's not helping it. Tim Wilson's a big chance in Goldstein, and as Cos just said, I think Labour are going to lose McNamara.
It hasn't been not for undred years. But Josh Burns is going to come third. The Labor member is going to come third. Now he's desperately trying to get the Jewish community to vote for him, saying, oh, but if
I come third, the Greens might get elected. Well, Josh, the only way the Greens good elected, mate, if your preferences, if your preference has got them elected, because you'll come third and the Liberal candidate Benson Sale is going to get close to forty percent Primbi Labor, the Greens will be close to thirty. So the Greens have got to
get a huge whack of Burns's preferences to get elected. Josh, So if you don't want the Greens elected, you should do the decent and honorable thing and give the second preferences to the Liberal Party and do not insult the Jewish community by saying that the Liberals and the Greens on Middle East policies are you know, six or one, half a dozen and the other because you're trying to ref you an open how to voka that is just incensing people in the Jewish community, and so it should.
So I think labor are in big trouble in Macnamara.
Yeah, certainly for Til.
It's one thing to play a bad game, to do it on the home court of the hallowed territory. Game was quite impactful, yes, all right, But I don't think she can give Spasy the same cold shotter she gave the husband, of course a couple of weeks ago. Now I want to talk about the teals outside of the expected conversation. I think there are chance of a seat in Queensland, and I think there are chance of maybe losing Curtain but winning something else in and around the
richer bit of Perth. Why keep the sheep stuff is very focused on the curtain seat and getting rid of that teal. But that means maybe not the eyes off the ball, but the message might be moving somewhere around the coast, particularly Queensland. Though, cause I don't say it with pleasure, it's just this is one of those things they're pumping an awful lot of cash into there's a few retiring MPs and the bug of them all message
of Clive Palmer. Do you see any possibility of the surprise teal pop up in a place like Queensland where they obviously due to the state parliamentary system couldn't get up. But I think there's a look, I'm going to throw out a seat specifically, they're not a chance at the moment with the bookies. I think McPherson might be a bit closer than people know, and that's a richer bit of the Gold Coast.
Yeah, that's right, and they are throwing a lot of money at that particular seat.
There's no question about that.
It's well resourced by Climbate two hundred and the Independence but it's no different to the sort of campaign they're running in Bradfield in your South Wales, right, and so one's bound to fall. I mean, what we're probably going to see on the night is they're going to win some seats and they're going to lose some seats. I think it's gonna be a bit of a you know, a win and lose sort of situation, and it depends
where we're looking at. So they could lose a seat in Victoria, or they might pick one up in your so foles and as you rightly pointed out, in Queensland. But I would say about Queensland, the ol MP's primary.
Is very healthy.
They've got a very popular state government up there.
That's true, right.
And you know if I when I'm looking at all the numbers across the country every single time we bring out a sample, Queensland's numbers for the Blue team are pretty strong.
Well I can say, is God love you Queensland. You know how much I love you.
We won't quite being Queensland, but we can see it through the window. We can see it from our house when we're in tweet Eds tomorrow with the Mavericks debate. That'll be a bit of fun, all right. Last one here, Palmer helping or hurting. It doesn't seem to spend as there's not as many ads, and the ads have the simple message you bugger them all now. Obviously when he
went in on Shorten, that helped. In twenty nineteen, it helped with preference discipline as well, with the then four percent of people who ended up biting United Australia Party. Trumpet's apparently polling at about two might be higher in some certain places. Ironically, this money is sort of going
to help the anyone but liberal or labor. Michael, are you surprised when you would think ideologically all of the things they say in the ads, well, the opposite of all of them is the labor and green side of things. Yet they haven't moved the message.
Yeah, he does promise a lot. The old Clive in one and one add is like a machine gun, doesn't he He promises trains and everything, all that about fifteen seconds. But look, as I saying at the beginning, I think what's happening is this. I think the labor vote, hardcore labor voters two three percent of come back to labor two or three percent. Why the vote hasn't changed is because two or three percent of the people haven't been
voted from this gone of the coalition. Why our vote hasn't changed much is because that two or three percent has gone to the right. So what i'd call the right wing vote has increased. And that's Palmarand as you say, one nation. Now, the problem for us is that once it gets there, only half of it to sixty percent of it comes back because most of those parties do not hand out how to vote cards CORECT, so when people get in the polling birth the preference has just
spray in all directions. So they mainly manned a couple of major booths in an electric, but if there's thirty or forty booths in an electric, they're not man So the more people go to the right, the less chancell is of Peter Dutton winning. That's that's the simple message that we've got to pump out in the next few weeks.
I've got a feeling that a couple of Labour Party people might change their T shirts and be handing out for one nation in a couple of the left wing seats in Victoria, just as an act, just to say I look, don't worry Love, we'll hand them out for you.
We'll hand him out for your Brind's nice. This is not fair enough. It's almost like cous has heard of that one before.
All right, thank you lads, do appreciate it with see you again next week.
The Dark Darts they live. I love it, Thank you guys, all right, quick break back with more. The Wonderful Day Lee is next from Western Sydney and in Fowl.
I love die because not just did she defeat KK three years ago. What she has done as an independent member of Parliament is so much more substantive than the sort of fake members that parade to be independents. I've watched to ask hard questions, cost of living questions.
When everyone else was looking the other way. I've seen her advocacy. She is absolutely passionate about.
Her local area, and not just saying things, but taking up a fight on their behalf.
So I hope she does get real elected.
Labor, of course, have put the person in who probably should have been the candidate three years ago.
But die joins us now die? How's the election feeling again?
Anyone who follows you on social media knows, morning, noon, and night.
You're out there. You're out there. You're out there.
You'll deserve a break at some point in time, but it won't come until at least twenty something days from now.
How are you failing?
Oh look, it's pretty good, Paul. Obviously, the work that I do hasn't stopped since the day I got elected. Nothing has changed, really, I suppose with election around the corner, it's the additional work of preparing booth kits, preparing volunteers, getting volunteers designing your HTV because of course you're an independent, you don't have the machinery to do all of that organization organizing for you. But look, it's been very good being out there in the community. And as you know,
I've been doing well. I didn't leave it the last four or five weeks to door. I've been doing knocking since last year and understanding the needs of my community.
And I think i've on your show before calling for the few excise tax cuts to be reintroduced because that will help at least you know, families seventy percent of our community drive cars out here, petrol field cars because we drive long distances and we don't have the East West Metro, which the state government and the federal government basically you know, took it off the map. And that means lost opportunities for our young people, for our families
to connect to the Western Sydney Airport. There's so many things that I think that the Anthony Albanizi labor government have really forgotten, continue to forget Fowler and Southwest and Western Sydney. They you know, they sounds like they are announcing billions of dollars here and there, but really, when you look at the crux of it, what have they
really done for families? A few days ago, I was at a trivia night at a local club and there's about one hundred people and a few of the people come up to me and said, you know, they're so angry because they have obviously the cost of food has gone up, petrol price have gone up. For them, the thirteen interest rate writers has caused them a lot of pressure, even though we've had one reduction in interest rate.
Doesn't touch you sides. Doesn't touch your sides. So give me an idea too.
And I asked this question respectfully, But obviously there's a very significant number of people who speak languages.
As well as English in and around the community.
When you've got to talk to lots of people in lots of different ways, what's different than say a campaign in you know, the pretty white places like the northern beaches of Sydney, where there's this quite complicated dia aspera. How do you campaign? Do you go via organization to organization? What's different?
Give me an idea, look, Paul, I think it's a working with the community. I wouldn't call it. I mean, I know politicians called it campaigning like at the moment because coming out in the last five six weeks, going out making announcements. But for me, for instance, for the month of April, for instance, from the first of April, we have their Serian New Year and they're different groups, so they celebrated for the last the last one was
on Friday night. And then we have also the Laotian Australian Community New Year, which was started one last week and I attended one today and then next week we have the Cambodian New Year, and of course we have the Anzac Day, and we have all of this community cultural events that I participate and I get invited to be part of. And so that's for me, it's about community engagement and understanding. And when you go to these events,
you get to hear of people's stories on struggles. And I don't know if politicians like you know, the Prime Minister and all his ministers or any other senior ministers and are actually on the ground and listening to what the community are telling them, because I certainly do. I feel like I'm one of the people my community. I'm there listening to them and actually ensuring that what they're telling me gets translated in terms of policy or bringing
that to the federal Parliament. And I've been doing that for the last three years.
Well and again, and I say that to get a greater understanding about the task of being.
The local MP.
It's already difficult and all of those other complexities. But honestly, I think you've been in a phenomenal edition to the parliament. I hope you're there for another three years. Whatever support we can, we throw you away. If we need to talk to you again before the election, we will, But tell us how do people.
Find you online?
How do they help you out in the next couple of weeks.
Yes, please, you know, if people want to volunteer, obviously I don't have the machinery, please to contact me on my website, the support dot di lea dot com dot au and you can find a forming there to volunteer, to donate because obviously, again I'm spending my own money and I have a few donors already, people from you know, donating one hundred dollars one thousand dollars from across the country. And I've been very grateful because that's going to help
with my campaign. So yes, I'd be grateful for all the support that I can get.
Good stuff dilut dot com, dot au diary dot com, that you will put it up on our socials so we'll get it in front of many people's eyes. All the best, mate. We'll talk to you again before and definitely after the election. Thank you, dilute. An excellent local representative, exactly who you want in the parliament, not somebody who's desperate to appear on Q and A. Instead wants to appear at the local community events and fight for you.
We'll see you again tomorrow for the Mavericks from Tweed Talla