From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thank you, Sherry, all the best to you and your family this weekend and yes, Sidney's Royal East. The show does start tomorrow. Huge crowds and inevitably a politician will turn up, and because people go ciously when television cameras will turn up, that will be interpreted as who is winning and who
is losing the election? Generally speaking, TV cameras equal kids at ANISTA show, hyped up on fairy floss and fun, probably to go a little bit crazy, So look forward to the crazy spin that will come out all of that. Now away from the election, we all have a basic understanding that youth crime obviously major problem right across the country, and we feel for the police who have to interact and arrest these people over and over again. Very few
of them end up going to court. You will be amazed, and I mean amazed, by the number of people who police pick up who actually end up going to juvenile detention. It is surprisingly low. But wait, doing you see just how low it has been going Monday night, Tweedheads is the location the Mavericks Pub test. This is going to be fun. It's one of my favorite things that we do each and every election. And I'm police to say that Paul en Hanson, Matt Canavan, Bob Katz are there now,
I should tell you yes. Of course we have invited the Trumpet Patriots, both their leader and Clive Palmer. I believe Clive might be in Perth that time and the leader has said they've got something else to do. So that's why it's those three right now. But if you've got a question, particularly about cost of living, I've got a lot of great questions about everything from climate change
to America to Australian home ownership. Or if you've got questions about what one nation, the opposition or the Cater Australia Party would do when it comes to cost of living, whacked that in, I reckon. I've got about twenty spots left, and I know how many people watch us in and around southeast Queensland, northern New South Wales and right across that border area. Even when it was lockdown, people were turning up to our shows that when they were there.
So now that everyone's free and easy and can be there, be there Monday night if you can. The email pub test at Skydnews dot com dot Au or of course, just keep doing what you're doing right now, watching from all over the country. Twenty three days to go in the federal election of twenty and twenty five. Nothing is inevitable. Regardless of what the spin, the polls or the book is.
Nothing is inevitable. You still have to have yours say, you can lead the conversations amongst your family and friends of the information that you see here each and every night. Twelve days less than two weeks before the first votes are cast. Now, anyone who wanted to put their hand up for parliament. Today was the lockoff day, meaning we will probably by Monday or Tuesday of next week will not only just know how many people are running in how many seats, but they may well be ballot draws.
So when that's the case, I'll be able to show you, probably in state of the race on Sunday night, but definitely a couple of days after it, exactly in all of those say twenty key seats, how many people are running? Is it? Basically everyone preferencing against the Libs. Are there a few center right parties that might help them out? And we'll get deep into that conversation next week as well, as we'll actually get to go for a deep dive
inside the electoral role. I know, exciting right. As for the Prime Minister, well, he spent a bit of time in Queensland today and of course he wanted to pretend that he's a faux Queenslander.
I love Queensland and I know my yeppin from my yupoon as well.
Reminds me of the cringe when he went to the steel works around Valentine's Day.
Valentine's Day, Can I say this to all of you?
Roses are red.
Violence of blue. It's Valentine's Day and we love blue polar workers.
That goes down well, right? Three more years of that? I don't think so. But of course, being an election day, there's only one way the Labour Party thinks they could win that sly on top of that, of course, to buy their way. So how much of your money did he spend? As we go towards one point two trillion dollars in deficit under his watch.
This reef program that we're announcing today will provide six million dollars for kids for the Red, also million dollars for local tourism operators and three million dollars to tropical North Queensland to tourism.
Is such a fake. It's different caps. It's even different caps feeding all right. Now, that of course adds to the more than what forty five billion dollars worth of promises that have been made thus far. Now, of course, everyone else only counts from the start of the election campaign, ignoring all of the pre election promises, which were about the years to come. They were election promises, and all of this is borrowed money, All of his promises in dollar value since January.
A seven point two billion dollar announcement today five million dollars ten million dollars, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollars, three hundred and fifty million dollars, two billion dollars, thirty seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar, two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar, four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars, three point four billion dollars, two point eight billion dollars, two hundred
million dollars, one hundred and fifty million dollars, one billion dollars, two hundred and forty five million dollars, six million dollars million, dollars three million dollars.
Other people's money, right, who cares? Does anyone actually vote as a result of these types of promises, I don't know. Or is it just a whole bunch of stuff that you say in order to say you're doing something, all of it borrowed money. Australia under this government goes from surplus to deficit for the next ten years. Under the Intergeneration Report, deficits all the way through the twenty twenties, thirties, forties, fifties and into the twenty sixties. But you know, nothing
to see here, right. As for Peter Dunton, he was on the trail and I've seen some polling, both public and private, which is showing that the petrol price reduction, the harving of petrol tax, is actually more popular with people than the five dollars in fifteen months tax cut thing. Jeez, what a surprise. We knew that from the date it was announced, but slowly but surely that's the feedback that he's coming back. Well that matter, when it comes to
the election, we'll all find out. But that was his selling point again today. Our plan is to.
Provide in the short term a twenty five cent a lead cut in the price of fuel, which for young trades here and for pensioners and for people right across the country that means about fourteen dollars fifteen dollars a week straight off your petrol bill.
That message delivered in Victoria today that along with New South Wales expected to be the places where most of that changed seats towards the Liberal Party will come from. We'll all wait and see. But for those that have been waiting for the fire up, how's this for the bloke who at times has been the preferred prime minister but has also put labor right back in its box for the past couple of years. I love this today. More of it?
Please are the Prime Minister has lied about the two hundred and seventy five dollars Australian families have suffered because of that. He's lied about the fact that power prices have now gone up by thirteen hundred dollars. That's the reality. The Prime minist delight about falling off the stage for some reason.
I mean it was caught on camera. Now interesting as always to tell you how the media is trying to spin the ball. Thank you to those who have sent me the email saying exactly what left wing spin means.
I apologize doesn't come immediately to mind, of course, the media thinking that they are still talking into a prime minister who will still be there in three years, So you wouldn't possibly want to upset him, let alone any chance of a one on one that they're dangling in front of you at some point over the next three weeks. So keep playing nice or we'll ignore you. That's why he gets questions like this.
This region become more reliant on China as a trading partner, and how has your government strengthened that relationship since the imposition of us Harritt.
How do you play Slabor's chances? Obviously there are a lot of seats of playing particular That's why obviously hearing like that, how do you think the labor is going.
To perform The way that you run a campaign, the way that we cover a campaign is still fit for purpose?
Jeezus, I mean the tough stuff, right, the tough questions Peter Dutton. The media of course last night, blaming him, blaming him for his father's heart attack. I showed you that footage. I'd showed that to an old mate after the show last night, who has been around media for a long time, genuinely shocked that that's the state of what's being asked, but hadn't seen it anywhere. I had to show them. I don't know why they were watching
the show that night, but you get my point. Plenty people don't see this stuff, which is why you tune into us each and every night to show you just how they spin the ball for labor. You saw the soft touch for albow. What did they do to Dutton today?
You've been criticized for borrowing, trumping and tactics. Do you believe borrowing Trumpian tactics? Do you believe acts like this for these from your candidates are damaging the liberal brand and your brand overall liberal candidates.
Sorry. In the Melbourne Seed of Wills last year, pleaded guilty to obtaining financial advantage by deception and was made to pay fines and compensation worth more than ten thousand dollars. Is this the standard that voters should accept and that you accept.
At this time?
Is advocating for that position really an example of respond economic management?
Just in case you need the reminder, the true cost of labor over the past three years. In fact, the numbers are true to this very minute. Last month, fifty four thousand people lost their job. One point six million homes are currently in mortgage stress, meaning they can't pay their mortgage. Up to twelve interraesst rate rises. Two out
of three people can't afford their rent. They make it, but they don't have much money left over for things like groceries, which of course costs more than they ever have.
Three million people on the verge of homelessness, three point seven million households that will have already run out of food by this time this week, twenty nine thousand businesses which went bust, the highest supermarket prices, the highest prices thanks to taxation on alcohol, smoking and petrol, budget deficits for the next forty years, and all of it one point two trillion dollars worth of debts. Nothing to suit
you here, nothing to see you here. Now, they may call me a little old fashion, but the way that reporting is supposed to work when it comes to when you had proximity two people in power is when they make an announcement and you've clearly heard the speech, so you've heard their version of them spinning an announcement, you are supposed to have a moment when reporters turn around and say, hang on, but yeah, but so in the case of Anthony ibneasy, when he comes to we will
definitely put money into the Bruce Highway. Okay, but you had budget surpass for three years. Why didn't you put it in? Then? Oh, albo, we're doing more for mental health? Hang on, you had budget surplaces. Why didn't you do that for the past three years? General questions right, none of that, of course, because they don't want to upset the apple card. Now a perfect example of how this is done and how it can shake an election. A
single question can shake an election. Let's go back twenty nineteen. Jonathan Lee at the time working for Channel ten, asking questions of Bill Shorten, who at the time was running around not putting any numbers on what eventually became the climate policies of the Labor Party. Remember the lie about two seventy five, the lie about hundreds of thousands of jobs, Well, they were all just lipstick on the pig that Bill Shorten tried to take to market and got rejected by
the Australian people. And Jonathan Lee looked in right in the eye and had a set of stones better than most who go opposite these people, because he couldn't care less if he gets invited to special Friday drinks with the boss. That's what they call political figures in Australia behind the scenes. By the way, you remember the question.
And people know?
Dan? When can people know, mister Shorten the cost of You didn't answer the john I'm going to go to that. You should answer the question.
That's why we're here to ask questions and you're not answering the question, Dan.
Can people expect to know mister short and the cost of the economy? Dan? Why can't you answer the question, mister Shorton? Because I'm going to give your colleagues half agar No, because you should answer it. Why can't you answer the question, mister Shorton? Great, excellent. I love that stuff now. I don't mind if Albert gets it every day, Dutton gets it every day, Bant gets it every day. That is a fine exchange, no problem with that whatsoever.
It's not like the rubbish like we've seen of recent times, where again Channel seven last night basically infers that Peter Dunton is somehow responsible for his father's heart attack. Apparently doing better in hospital right now. All the best to Bruce and the Wider Dune family. But that's the way it's supposed to work. Instead, I remember way back when
like this a long time ago. But the game is exactly the same because many of the people playing it today for the prime Minister were playing it for people like Bob Carther and you, Soiba's premier way back when. Because it's junior reporters who often end up going out and going out on the trail, what ends up happening is that special friendships are formed where this long time labor staff for why are they paying attention to little old twenty one year old me? And you start to
think there's something special about me. And I'm saying, I openly say I fell for it why because it didn't know better. Wouldn't fall for it now, They wouldn'tdare come near me now. But this is how it works. And you'll start to see a whole bunch of one on ones that'll turn up on lots of TV news and they will be done by junior reporters. They'll mostly happen in the last two weeks of the campaign. Why because they are dangled. Oh look in idea, is there something
really special about you. In certain I reckon you know the boss really likes you. Do you want to have a sit down interview? So they play nice for the majority of the campaign. The payoff for the show real. They get to sit down and interview the leader. The message they can send back to their boss. Look how good I am. I got to interview the prime minister. What this means is the people's self police. It means they don't behave like Jonathan did in that press conference.
People who know better know not to fall for it. And I can't attack young people who maybe this is their first rodeo around the country, but they are not your friends. If you are watching in a hotel room right now and you're one of the very few lucky people to be on the proverbial buses, they are not
your mates. Despite what they promise, and despite how many beers you've had in the hotel lobby tonight, nothing different is going to change when it comes to your access to power on the other side of the election, they'll still refer back to the boss or the big Boss or the boss Boss Boss in a different city. That's
how it really works. Person who, like everyone, started out as a junior reporter somewhere, then became the head of politics for the ABC, the host of the seven thirty Report, the head of politics for Channel nine, and a man who has done analysis here on Sky News, but of course did that incredible documentary about the cost of renewables, dealing with the facts and the reality. He was somebody who played more like Jonathan Lee today than many of the people who are a softball in the prime minister
or their ministers at the moment. You will have heard that the National Press Club had its Energy debate today, Ted O'Brien representing the opposition, blackout bar and representing the government. It's in Canberra, so Labour thinks they're playing a home game.
But you know who absolutely bolded up bang the bloke who wasn't going to back down, the bloke who knows what he's talking about, the bloke who doesn't fall for the spin, the b as the direction or the oh if you playing nice so we can have one on one chat later which will impress your boss. How good is Chris us? Woman giving it to Chris Bowen. Now, I'm not going to show you little cuts of this and talk in between. I'm going to show you the
whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a real journalist, a real person of expertise taking on an absolute used car salesman. Have a look, Chris Bowen.
In December twenty twenty one, you commissioned modeling which showed and you pledged that you would drop power prices by now by two hundred and seventy five dollars for residential homes.
You committed to.
It again in April twenty twenty two, when you were told that modeling was flawed, you continued to commit to it. In twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, even though electricity prices were rising. You continued to be committed to it when you started subsidizing power bills.
And now this year, as.
Subsidies now have tracked through a new record and they're going through to the end of the year, you're spending billions of dollars on that. You are now claiming that electricity price falls due to subsidies are a fall in electricity bill. Now, electricity prices are rising, aren't they, Minister. That's written into a level every electricity bill, isn't it, Minister. And if you can't admit that simple fact, here today. Why should anyone believe anything that you say?
Well, thanks very much for the question, Chris. I'm not exactly sure what your question is really in reality, you've got strong views.
Sorry our electricity prices. Going back, Chris, press you up downs. I didn't interrupt. I didn't interrupt a question. Do I get to answer?
Do I get to answer it? Thank you. You've got strong views about these matters, which you express on Sky News in the evenings, and that's your right. I disagree with the way that you look at these matters. I disagree with the approach that you take. Respectfully, I think that renewable energy is.
The cheapest form of energy.
You disagree with me, you disagree with the CSIRO. You're perfectly in told of that point of view. I have said at the outset in my opening remarks, energy prices are hard and I'd like them to of course they are.
I think everyone would say that.
I think normal Australians at home also look around the world and know that people around the world are dealing with similar issues. Countries with different policies in place, are all dealing with high energy prices with great respect. It's disingenuous and dishonest. Of you to blame all this so renewable energy as you do on.
Sky in the Evenings.
It's just not right, sir, It's just not fair.
You're entitled to that view.
It's a very very simple question. Have electricity prices risen on your watch? The exact opposite of what you pledged?
Have that? We have never denied.
We have never denied that energy prices are higher than we would like. That's why we've delivered three rounds of energy to be relief Bild relief strategy.
You wrote, electricity prices have fallen. That's not true, is it.
Well?
The fact of the matter is, if you look at the recent data, Australia's had the lowest energy inflation.
In the world.
Know, you might deny that, and I know you deny several things.
The reason for it? What is the reason for.
Mister you and you're asking a question or are your debating?
It's just that you are completely avoiding it, as you always do.
We get a blast.
I know you're a man of astronomies in these matters, and I said, I've always had respects for you, but I have a fundamentally different view to the one that you have developed in recent years, which you express on sky Now.
Your premise on renewables is true. Electricity prices will fall in your next.
Term well as again, i'd refer you to the au straight Energy Market Commission report which says, if we keep the path we're on, energy prices will fall by thirty percent over the next ten years.
You might deny that. I don't extraordinary It is an extraordinary. Firstly, that's the way it's supposed to work. Well informed skepticism of what government is saying, holding them to account for what they have said in the past, giving them an opportunity to answer the question, but then bringing them back to the centerpiece of your question. If they just try to change the subject to any and everyone who's having a lot of fun taken selfies posting them up on Instagram.
Havey we're on the bus, haym'r on the plane. That's the model. Did Channel nine run any of that tonight? No? The Channel seven run any of that tonight. No, didn't check the abs. But what do you reckon? Extraordinary truly is up now There is a breaking news story which I have just learnt about, which is via the Australian newspaper. Peter Dudden the alleged target of a Brisbane private schools
student's terror plot. This thing is extraordinary. The sixteen year old, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was arrested and charged last August after a joint counter terrorism investigation by Federal and Queensland police. The sources have told The Australian the teenager was allegedly planning to attack the Federal Opposition leader at his home on acreage north of Brisbane. In the alleged plot, according to source familiar with the investigation,
it involved the use of a drone. Queensland and Federal police have declined to comment on their investigation or the evidence against the teenager, who on Thursday they've been today has been committed to stand trial on a single charge relating to the alleged plot. The teenager, who attended one of Bruceban's prestigious private boys' schools until his arrest, has been charged with the Commonwealth offense of committing acts done quote in preparation of planning a terrorist attack. It carries
a maximum penalty of life in jail. The charges alleged two the teenagers researching a bomb making instructions purchased explosive ingredients, tested thermal chemical reactions and tested home made explosives contrary to the section the relevant section of the law. The plan attack was from somewhere in and around May twenty first July the fifteenth last year. He has appeared in court today, where as I can see, no further details
been given. That's extraordinary. A sixteen year old has been charged with an attempted terror plot, the plan to use a drone to go after Peter Duarton at his home in Brisbane. Breaking news via the Australian newspaper this evening back to the federal election campaign, and just that is incredible when you think about the presures on these people and now you've got scenarios like that little potential and
alleged scenarios involving sixteen year oldsh my goodness. As for social media, this is a place where the Labor Party in particular and certainly the center left think that they are going to be able to win this election. Why because there are more people under the age of fifty than over the age of fifty that will be voting at this election. You will have heard more millennials than
ever before. Millennials. Of course, the people who could go all the way up to forty, so it's not necessarily aimed at those, but certainly the younger cohort of eighteen to twenty four. The problem is the peace people who are using this social media, particularly labor cabinet ministers. Now, this is what they like to look like when they are doing their day job, trying to pretend that they're all some super serious and up to the task of
running the country. But the way that they think that they can win over the younger voters is frankly, by carrying on like play school presenters. This is the garbage that's running around, mainly on the social media platform TikTok, otherwise known in my view as a Chinese surveillance app. But plenty of people are still on, millions of people in Australia for some stupid reason, but they are. And this is how the federal Health Minister talks to the kids. No,
this is Australia, babe, like please anyway. Patronizing is the Labor Party talking about its own favorite Labor Party policies, Right.
What's your favorite thing from this term of government? Well, getting wages moving again, I mean getting them to lift above inflation for the first time in years.
Awesome, that's the casuals protections that we've done. I just needed one. Morrent Jed. What's your favorite thing from this tam of government?
Over half a billion dollars on women's healthcare?
Oh awesome, thank you. Fuck Tim? What's your favorite thing from this term of government? A future man in Australia delivering more manufacturing jobs, good quality jobs in our regions in the suburbs.
And it's got the right of disconnect again.
Yeah, the same job, same pay. Let me tell you about we, by the way, have approach Murray. What to appear in well one of the Mavericks debates, in fact the ones coming up on Monday. Oh no, sorry, unavailable, because you know he prefers to communicate with people like that then in a session where someone may well push
back against him. Remember this government, apart from giving every parliament in the every politician in the Parliament of pay rise three of them in the past three years, they're given an extra staff member to every politician, mainly to do crap life. That worst in class for me is the person who, remember this time last year, was in charge of national security. When it came to Home affairs. She was clueless clear okneil when it came to immigration,
and she remained so when it comes to housing. Oh but she's Queen of the kids, isn't she got Sorry?
Who are you wearing?
To Housing Australia on the top like that the Watch You About story.
Everyone, We're at a Housing Australia future find site and we really need.
This investment to continue.
Peter Dunt wants to scrap her.
Now.
Remember years ago when we used to say Twitter in real life because we knew it was super lefty, it was super niche. And yes, one millions of people are honored. The reality is there are millions more who are not. The same must be said about TikTok. Now, I understand about its penetration and I'm not going to look the other way when up to nine million people. But this is a country of twenty seven million people, so the
vast majority of people are not interacting with this app. Yes, once you put it together with what gets repeated on Instagram, reels and other social media where the numbers start to get up there, But TikTok ain't real life. Literally, it ain't real life. We know about all of it's ups and all of its downs. And the idea that the very platform which is banned by the federal government from use on official federal government phones is also used by the party that is the federal government to get its
election message out sends rather confusing message to me. Again, we'll keep an eye on all of this, and in fact, in the next couple of weeks I look forward to going into the detail about whom is actually making the most impact when it comes to social media, and about who is not just getting views, but views are not just one second actual watch. But to give you an idea of the penetration of the leaders. These figures come to us from March. I have no further update from
the ones that are here. But when it comes to TikTok, the Prime Minister as twenty three thousand followers, the alternative prime minister twenty nine thousand, the total number of likes two hundred and sixty nine versus three hundred and eighty three thousand, What about eighteen nineteen million people will vote to this election. But of course, despite the fact that Peter Dutton has more followers and more likes, what do
you reckon? The headline was Channeline put on this story, Dutton has more followers, but Albanezi is doing it better of course, because we wouldn't want to upset the apple cart would be no one anywhere. Now totally unrelated to the breaking new strap that is below. This is nothing to do with the breaking new strap that is below. It is another piece of information that I've been working on for you for the past couple of days, and it's about youth crime and youth crime that is a
very significant problem right around the country. It was the reason the Queensland government changed last year. It is one of the reasons why the Allen government in Victoria is looking as shaky as it is. It's also been a major problem for the Men's government in New South Wales. But tonight I wanted to stress test a theory that many of us have, which is if the police actually do end up arresting somebody, what ends up happening once
that person is arrested. Well, law and order itself is becoming an election issue, with polls from the past few weeks telling us that voters are sending a message to the Labor Party specifically in and around things like law and order. Well, there was a finding which comes out of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It tells us here that there were in the financial year two thousand and twenty three, twenty four forty six, seven hundred and ninety
eight separate offenders. These are offenders between the ages of ten to seventeen. Of those, twenty three thousand, four hundred and nineteen were sent to court and eighteen thoy and twenty eight ended up being found or pleading guilty. That was the court outcome. This is information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics of those who have been found guilty or sorry, I should say the people who were the defendants.
The biggest category of crime with youth offending was acts to injure or to cause injury, or theft, unlawful entry with intent, then traffic, then drugs and then other offenses. But the biggest ones here are either a plan to or actually carrying out some form of violence. Now, this is twenty five percent of all youth offending in the country ten to seventeen are acts intended to cause injury.
What a huge number. Now, before I show you how many of the people who end up going to court, twenty three thousand ending up at guilty eighteen thousand do you think were sent to juvenile detention sent to jail? The answer eight hundred and twenty eight. That's it. Forty six seven hundred and ninety eight people police interact with because they believe that they have committed a criminal offense, twenty three four hundred and nineteen go to court, eighteen
thy and twenty eight are found guilty. Twenty five percent of all of the offending is to do with injury against the person well as you can see, a nominal penalty, so some form of a caution, slap on the wrist, followed by a diversionary program or a conference with your victim. Again a slap on the wrist, a moderate penalty in the community, so community service, then a good behavior bond, meaning you still don't go to jail. But the total number of people who went to jail eight hundred and
twenty eight two percent. Every now and then there are little reminders that come from the stats, little reminders about your perception is reality. There is a huge amount of youth crime. Once it goes through the system, there are as many attempts to get it away from a court before it gets to a court that when it gets to a court, do they go to jail two percent? Two percent? That is extraordinary when twenty five percent of all of the offending is about injuring another human being.
Quick break back with more here on Paul Murray Live. Thanks for watching us this Thursday night. Not to know you think the winner and loser of the week is and wait till you find out what China had to say today about tariffs. What they are saying is extraordinary when you think about what they did to little old
ols for a couple of years. More in a set just the more details I read extraordinary reporting out of the Australian newspaper tonight, breaking news, huge news that are sixteen year old who until this court case apparently was att any one of the most privileged schools in Brisbane has been charged and appeared in court today with terrorism offenses the plan to use a drone to aimed at Peter Dutton. I'm going to be very careful for my language here because I don't want to make anything easier for.
Well.
I don't want to intervene in the process at all. But this is extraordinary. A sixteen year old has now been charged with this situation. The police case that was delivered today suggests bomb making instructions, purchased explosive ingredients, tested thermal chemical reactions and tested homemade explosives. The matter was due to be carried out between May twenty first July
fifteenth last year, but appears in court today. Extraordinary Peter Dutton the focus of a terror plot at his home, where the allegation is that a drone was to be used explosives to with him being the target. All right, we move on to election issues of the day, but that remains the breaking news. If I know any more about it, we'll of course talk more about it as the show goes on. Darren Bunett and Christy McSweeney love
to see you both on a Thursday night. Now. Of course we have all of the experience of running for the Liberal Parts, to advising the Labor Party, to dealing with the Teals and negotiating with the Cross benches, so you guys have got lots of inside and outside knowledge. So on a Thursday night, when we've got a bit of a chance to look at things a little further out, I wanted to talk about scare campaigns and whether the
old scares still work now. Certainly we know the scare from Labor about the coalition is all Medicare, Medicare, mediicare, despite the fact that we know it ain't true. The money has been matched, no suggestion in any way, shape or form, but they still keep doing it right. Conversely, the Liberal Party will say the Greens, the Greens, the Greens, the Greens, the Greens, but the reality is that yes, twenty ten there was this formal signing agreement, but Labour
keeps preferencing away with them anyway. So I'm going to ask you first, Christie, of course from the pr Council. That's where you can find her work and support of what she does. Do the old scares work because I know that the assumption is it worked in the past, it works in the future. But let's be honest, there are plenty of people every three years who weren't old enough to vote or aren't around to vote anymore.
Look, I think they do work to an extent if you are somebody who really values a particular issue. That scare campaign has been embedded in the popular culture, even though it's been rebunked, even though it's been refuted, even though it's been proved wrong, and even though the Labor Party via Penny Wong and Bill Shorten were less less than using the truth when they claimed that the Coalition
would cut Medicare. Of course it was some type of digital transformation service in the ICT part of the Health Department that was moveted somewhere in a paper for being reduced. So that actually, if anybody's wondering, was the origination of the Medicare campaign. Medi scare campaigns, so that is embedded and it has it is embedded in people who find that issue that particular issue. The other thing I wanted to say about the Scare campaign, and this particularly affects
a coalition, is around economic management. Labor can't manage your money. Labor can't economically manage the Australian economy. I think Australians live with so much debt now they just think everybody lives beyond their means. You know, young people think, oh well houses cost a million two million dollars. Of course you need to be in debt up to your eyeballs.
So I think generationally that level of we're carrying too much debt doesn't resonate as a scare campaign with certain demographics in Australia anymore.
Yeah, I mean, I'm actually going to do a bit of work on this for next week. But I mean, as the generations know that, certainly parents or grandparents depending on your age, they learn how to do without. And then there was the slow access towards credit, but you had to have a huge amount of savings before the credit, and then the threshold by which you get credit drops
and drops and drops and drops. Now that it feels like when even you walk onto a card, you've already been approved for the finance, regardless of whether you've got the backside on your trousers or not. But about old school scare campaigns, I mean it's important for people to understand the direct fifty to fifty line in the electoralism fifty over the age of fifty and under the age of fifty. Do the scare tactics work differently either side of that line? Darren?
I think they have to be based on history and based on precedent. So Labor invented medicare or medibank, and then Whitlam invented it, Fraser took it away, Hawk put it back, and there's enough around medicare being one of Labour's great sort of foundational achievements that any day they can talk about health is a good day in this By the same token, any day that the coalition can talk about national security is a day that they win.
So can almost chalk up the wins according to what that six o'clock story of the day ends up being. But what I wanted to add to that, what I think is fascinating. We've seen ir and workplace relations come into this campaign and it really hasn't been that active an issue since work choices, and we can argue about whether it's fair. There's a characterization of people thinking they're not going to be working from home, they're going to
be pushed back into the office. But there's enough of a grain of truth behind it for people to associate looking back through history that yeah, I reckon, they might do that, and so that's good. Scare campaigns have to be based on either history or a recent policy decision or error.
But also I think that the scare campaigns, the danger of the scare campaigns, Christy, is that previously in sort of a market of coke or PEPSI right, that basically you know, it was to make you choose one or the other. But then there's this whole third lane that turns around and say, see how they argue all the time.
That's why we need a better version of politics. And the more and more the two old side of coke and PEPSI blow each other away, Iced Tea is sitting over here saying, wouldn't you just prefer to be refreshed in a better and kinder, more empathetic society. Isn't this also part of the problem, Christy, that the harder you hit each other, you partially push people towards the people who say bargle the rest of them.
Yeah, of course, in one in three people, one in three voters in Australia now are choosing not to vote for major parties. All of us know the primary vote is still struggling even in this campaign to get above the mid thirties and for both of the legacy major parties,
and that independent vote seems to be growing. The challenge for both of the major parties to lift that primary vote out of the mid thirties is that there's a lot of what we call the soft boat, which is, as you say, Paul, a lot of people saying I'm really looking for something to grab onto because I don't like either of them, and all politicians are the same, and that soft boat could very well go to an
independent because of that theory. They don't want to vote for either major party, not because they don't like them, but because of that sentiment of you're all the same, and I want to put my vote somewhere with someone that's local in my community that might be fighting for a single issue, and that's the risk that soft boat becomes captured by the independent.
So of course, the problem, Darren is if you're trying to reach everyone, it makes it very difficult if you want to be the boutique brewery looking after one seat and one third of one seat, which is the ability to turn around and say not Kirk or PEPs theire correct.
And the great luxury of being an independent is that if you like something, you say that's good, but it could have gone further, and if you don't like it, you say I don't like it. And it's hard to lose because it's a fairly easy set of decisions that you make and public comments that you make. So the problem for the major parties is that after a prolonged period of government, you don't quite the elasticity, isn't there. You don't come back to that same level of prominence
and dominance that you had before that long period. And that tale goes to the independence and the right and the left, they both do it. I was on last week with James Ashby and he cashed in on what Trump had said that day, and he's prevently within his rights to do that. But it's quite easy if you are in that position, or if you're Adam Banton the Greens, or even if you're the Teals. So it's quite easy
to be a protest vote. The litmus test comes if you have to form government, correct, who do you're back?
So here's the thing though, and in fact we'll take a break in a second, but just how do you battle that if you are cocor PEPSI? How do you battle that if you are a major party?
Well, I think you've just got to make decisions that take the people with you. And that's not straightforward. But in the end, people are smart enough to know the difference between a party of government and a party that does not form a government, and you have to convince people say, look, I know you're not going to agree with me. One hundred percent of the time. But I'm going to take you on a journey. After three years, I hope I've done enough where you can back me again.
And that's really the best that you can do.
Christy again. If you are somebody who is trying to represent the two parties that do end up forming government, how do you Taylor? Not the message? We but you've got to be all things to all people, which makes it bloody difficult.
You do have to be all things to all people, and politics is set up in a structure sort of boased on when we didn't have this concentrated media market where people weren't connected outside their geographic areas. It was the local politician fights for local issues, and something that a front bencher or a cabinet minister had said in Queensland wouldn't be known or be heard about by their local community in Western Australia at least until several days.
They wouldn't have to tackle those issues on an immediate basis. So the modern structure that we have, with this all consuming, twenty four hour digital media and everybody being so connected, it's really upended that it's a struggle for political parties who like to target geographic areas and localized messages to local communities and so to local MPs. But then they're always having to defend the shadow of their party's view
and be all things to all people. I still think when the Teals are campaigning on we are local and we are community independents is their version. Now it is more and more necessary for major party MPAs to be local community advocates. But again that's hard because they've got whole party decisions to talk about it.
Well, all right, Ken, I know we think about that or anything else. Send me an email, Paul. It's gonews dot com dot you. Do not forget the Mavericks pub test. It is happening on Monday in Tweedheads. How good is it going to be if you can be there, Send me an email right now. Pub test. It's gonews dot com dot you. I got to close it off tonight. So if you are any chance of being on the Tweed at the Tweed on Monday, can't wait to see it.
Morna Seki on por Love including Who's the Winner and Loser of the week if you're just joining us for whatever reason. The massive news that has broken this evening is that a sixteen year old who apparently had previously attended a pretty prestigiouschool in Brisbane, has been charged today formally, or should I say, appeared in court today apparently on a terrorism charge with a terrorism plot in and around
focused on Peter Dutton. Let me read directly from the Australian newspaper and what they will have on their front pages tomorrow, but is online right now. Peter Dutton was allegedly the time of a Brisbane private school student charged with buying ingredients to make bombs and testing homemade explosives in preparation to launch a terrorist attack. The sixteen year old, who can't be named for legal reasons, was the rested and charged last August after a joint counter terrorism investigation
by federal and Queensland police. Sources have told The Australian that the teenager was allegedly planning to attack the Federal Opposition leader at his home on acreage north of Bruceban. The alleged plot, according to familiar sources. Sources formiliar with the investigation, involved the use of a drone. More news throughout the night, but that is the breaking news right now.
Christiy McSweeney and Darren barnatda here. They are people who've been front, middle center, the dark arts, and plenty of other things in and around politics. And just like we do on a Sunday night, we'd like to go hardcore for you on a Thursday night. Now, I just want to I don't want to say what they should or shouldn't, what's right or wrong. Let's look at this analytically, Darren. How did the Teals get away with not saying which
way they're going to go? In a parliament without every journal, every time, all press conference basically pulling them to that central question Because the more a politician doesn't answer a question, generally it means more questions. But when it comes to the Teals, they're allowed to spit out one version of nothing and then people move on.
What I think they know who they're going to back.
Yes, they do, well, I'll tell you this for free.
They have to back liberal.
You reckon anyway. I don't want to debate dealism.
They will not be re elected if you're in a liberal seat and you go and then back labor. Happened to Oakshott and Winsor Sure they were gone. But I don't think the Teals have any idea of what a sustained media campaign over three years looks like.
If it gets closer, I will develop some form of a bit about the two Victorian teals. All right, we will discuss because the other thing that does happen is that once you're an independent and you get re elected, then yes, we can talk historically about what a seat used to be. But once you get up for the second time think about Sharky in South Australia, catter Wilkie, Helen Haynes. Once you get elected, you are there a long time. So the idea that it's a faux liberals,
we'll see. But okay, Christy, why are they allowed to get away with it? Because put simply, if the question was or I'm mister dunnan, are you not putting your left foot in front of your right foot? Well, I've got many decisions to make, but I can't tell you until I've made the decision. Every question of every reporter for the rest of every press conferences, well, which you're going to choose your left or your right foot? Why is that level of repetitiveness not put onto these people.
It's a double standard of lack of scrutiny and lack of questioning, particularly as the coalition and has put out the voting record of teals, particularly Monique Ryan and Kou Yong who has shown to vote with Labor and the Grains over eighty percent of the time time and very very high Green alignment with her and masquer rating as people who represent disaffected Liberal voters who perhaps move towards one issue or the other that they feel that the
coalition didn't quite carry for them, But it's been very clear what their voting record is. I would like to see the media make a follow up question with who were going to back if we get to a minority government with Well, your voting records says you voted Monique Ryan, the Memph Cuong with Labor and the Grains over eighty
percent of the time. Is that an indication Those voting records are out there for every single TiAl in the Parliament, on every single bill, and that information has been disseminated, Yet the questions in the scrutinity fails.
To be asked.
Well, I've said a long way that I think that in terms of the Liberal Party and the way they should be focusing on these TiAl seeds is not necessarily to constantly tack them, because any attack on a cold strengthens it push the vote as low as you possibly can, so hopefully it denies them the world when it comes
to preferences. Junk polling. This is a little communications skill where if you can pay the right person and get the right number and you get a headline saying polling says Darren by Neck next governor general, someone will run it somewhere and we've seen plenty of exaves.
People want an online poll at three am?
Yeah, why do people keep running these poles? Though? It's pretty obvious that Bowen's not going to lose his seat, as much as I'd love him too.
Bo and he is not going to lose his seat. And Nora is Tony Bird. So look, if someone who is in pr is able to get that story covered, then you'd like to do that. That's kind of the nature of the industry and it doesn't mean that everybody has to take it incredibly seriously.
Yes, you're saying a yay for the day for whoever was able to get that up. Yeah, right, Well, let's do winners and losers for the week. Christy who stands out for you? It can be political non political. We've run out of time for any other version. What do you think yes or no for when you're a loser.
Well, I want to know who this amazing PR person was who peddled that poll out. That's whoever that was that won for me because I'm in PR and I pretty much would.
Not been able to do that.
The winner of the week the US stock market and anyone who bought shares in truth Social over the last twenty four hours.
Yes, very good point.
Couldn't agree more. The winners of the week of those who knew about truth Social. The losers the week are the rest of us.
Yeah.
Correct, But can I say what I always say about Trump? Yes, when you think thing is something is as good as it seems or as bad as it seems, wait one week, yep, wait one week and then find out what's happening. Basically, the Australian Stock exchange exactly back to where it was five days ago, the American back to where it was five days ago. And I love that's even though they're still keeping the ten percent tariff on Australia. I big God, love them all right, Thank you guys, do appreciate it.
Having wonderful weekend, wherever you happen to be. More breaking news about what's happening out of the court in Brisbane today with the late debate moments from now Here on Paul Murray on Sky News, I should say, have a great weekend today