Paul Murray Live | 1 August

happen here, sometimes obviously the stuff that happens overseas. And yes, let's begin with a very consequential day in the Trump Harris fight. But it is not just because of the event that took place today when he was speaking to the Association of African American Journalists. Now, Trump of course was delayed thirty five minutes. Apparently. He says it was

because of technical difficulties. Those that were confirmed by the lady on the far right of the screen, Harris Faulkner, who works for Fox News, also saying there was technical issues. They say, no, it's because there was live fact checking. But as you know, and we've got to go through this in some detail because I want you to hear everything in its proper context. It was a rather combative performance.

Now we all know that after about a three weeks ago the assassination attempt, the suggestion was that a new Trump was coming, the new concealed literary Trump. Well, the reality is that the Trump who actually surged to his highest point in the polls was the one who said fight, fight, fight, and that's exactly what he did today.

of it. Now, I'm not going to sit here and try to pretend that that wasn't at the very least an awkward moment and in artful moment, or at times just an uncomfortable one. It's a sign of Trump going back to what has worked for him in the past worked against him as well. But it is fascinating to

see what some of the reaction. Who's speed. Now, I'm going to show you reaction from the cable news networks in the United States, so I could show you much more versions of the outrage and much more versions of the defense. But generally speaking, this seemed to be the attitude in response to what we all saw the former president's side.

was really trying to say. The best that I could try to work it out was, obviously he's speaking to a group of black journalists. Now, of course, For some in the United States, that means African American. For others, it's literally a reference to your skin color. Again, the raw shacked test of Donald Trump is there for all to see, and somehow if you don't condemn it as loudly as somebody on MSNBC, then somehow you are pro

whatever they imagine the dog whistle to be. But there is one little thing I wanted to mention here, and again it's not the way that Trump should have said. It's not really a thing Trump should have ever got into. And I'll show you something in a couple of minutes time that actually shows why today was an important day in the race, not just because of this event, which much of the meeting will say is sort of his debate moment. Now it's not his debate moment, it's not

his access Hollywood moment. But still it was absolutely a sign that we are going back to form here, which means everyone's back into their normal corners. The very few people who are left undecided or the independence will we all see how they go in the next couple of weeks. But I mentioned before that one of the people who was interviewing the president was Harris Faulkner. She's one of the great people at Fox News Now. She's somebody who can be tough but fair. She does long interviews where

she goes straight after the issues. I think that she's a pretty straight shooter. Now. She of course confirmed what the President said about some of the technical issues that in part were why he said there was difficulties on the stage, but also about why there was a lateness in the whole thing starting, but something that we all

noticed together. And I feel like there's kind of going to be this public conversation where you must only have one opinion about what happened, and then there's the private conversations that will no doubt be happening across the United States about what did he really mean? And do we agree with what he really meant? But the other factor here is the reaction in the room. And one of the reasons why I didn't just play the little bit for you, but I played the bit that had the

crowd reaction in it. Is that was the crowd booing, was it hissing, was it peede off? Was parts of it loving the sort of Trump randomizer act? Well, again, Harris Faulkner, one of the people on the stage was able to see what the crowd was doing, and this is what she said about the crowd reaction to what was being said.

I should say leading the race, not winning the race, because obviously the win only comes in the first Tuesday in November, and we'll be in the United States for many shows and will have plenty to say between now and men. But you can see the betting markets are now starting to pull back. Trumps still in front, ever so slightly, but he lost four points in a day, another couple of bad days, he goes south, and then

obviously things start moving back in Kamala Harris's way. But as always I like to show you data because while I did mention that yesterday there was a lot of headlines saying that there was a whole collection of poles that had changed the race, there were also a whole collection of poles that still showed that there was a

significant strength with Trump. Now, one of the main sets of data that I'm going to try to focus on between now and the election so you have the same set all the way through is the information that the statistician Nate Silver has put together. He's on substack under the title of the Silver bulletin. Well, have a look at this, as I wanted to show you some of

the changes since the change in candidate. Right now, national polls, remember national polls are irrelevant because it's all about swing states. But still Trump was leading, Harris is now leading ever so slightly. Yes, statistical tie, all the rest of it. To give you an idea that generally speaking, the Democrats should be at least two points above the Republican or they are going to be in trouble in some of the swing states, but that has been the change since

the change to Kamala Harris. The latest five polls that I can show you that came in literally in the past twenty four to forty eight hours. They show Harris up by two, Trump up by four. They show Harris up by one, Harris up by one, and Trump up by two. So again we do not have an overall picture, but obviously this thing is way closer than it was

when Biden was the candidate. So let's get to the swing states, because we are now getting swing state polling that shows the Harris Trump race, not the Biden Trump race. As you can see in all of these states, there has been a very significant change. The change has seen Trump go down and Harris go up, but he is still leading in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, just

and Wisconsin is where Harris is winning along with Michigan. Now, to give you an idea in picture form about where we sit at the end of the second full week of Kamala Harris being the person not Joe Biden, let's have a look. Remember, you need two hundred and seventy votes in the electoral college, you need to win a certain number of states that do swing between left and right, red and blue, and Biden versus Trump. The final polls there were three hundred and twelve electoral vote it's an

easy win for the Republicans. Well, based off today's poll. If we can show that as well, the Republicans still winning, but only by now seventeen votes, that essentially means that move one or well two states in different directions. Harris wins, not Trump. So right now Trump is still leading. The question is have we hit the top of the surge for Harris where she's simply not Biden. Is her vote coming off Trump or is it coming off Kennedy? Which is a lot of what is taking place. So it

brings us to the third and most important picture. I have to show you one state in particular will crown the president. Now, if you assume that on the far left of screen in Nevada, that all of the data which is continually pointing in Trump's way, means Trump wins that state. Now it'd be the first time they've wanted in decades. But still it all comes down to Pennsylvania. They have nineteen electoral votes. You add nineteen to the

Democrats two hundred and fifty one, bang to seventy. You add nineteen to the Republicans two sixty eight, then obviously that is a victory. So it is all now about the state of Pennsylvania. Hence why most likely Kamala Harris will choose the current governor of Pennsylvania as her running mate. But make no mistake, if Pennsylvania moves, it has the capacity to crown Harris. If the data falls away in Nevada,

it'll start to sink Trump. The third thing that was the most significant thing that happened today that showed a change in the way this is all working. Blind Freddi would tend you that it has been difficult for Donald Trump to work out exactly how he is going to define and then attack Kamala Harris. We will know where the media is, and we all know that the media

is now involved in the coronation. But after the event with the journalists that took place today in Chicago, the former president flew back to Pennsylvania, the state where the assassination attempt had happened a couple of weeks ago, and that I have mentioned is basically the ultimate place you definitely need to win if you are going to become the president. And at a rally today we started to see what I think is the effective way to take on Kamala Harris. He's the first thing that he said.

or god forbid, actually answering a single question. Remember, not one question has been asked of her since the elevation, nothing about why did you lie about the state of the president, what did you really say, behind the scenes all of that. But of course none of that will be done in anywhere but friendly media, most likely probably on some sort of a podcast or radio show. Remember, of course, the form of the same people that are

running this campaign was to hand the questions to the interviewers. That, of course was admitted by the Biden now Harris campaign. Second, this is another way that Trump, if he can maintain a lead, would be able to do so. Now he can move the words around, move the emphasis around. But this is how he could take on Harris Well.

color and race. But if you're actually paying attention to all of the other things, this is the sort of stuff that will turn up in the ads now, even though Donald Trunk can't be told what to say, Clearly, whatever research they have behind the scenes is starting to turn up in these messages that she's a fake, that clearly she is part of every problem which forced people to think that they didn't want to vote Democrat at this upcoming election. Remember, they are defending a record Trump

is attacking. Trump lost, of course when he was defending his record, and it was the Democrats who were attacking. Third and final sign of where Trump might go in the next couple of days.

at times even straight out indefensible. But if you're somebody who knows that Kamala Harris is not presenting herself as the person she has been for the years as the vice president who clearly was involved in the decisions which annoyed the American people so much so that even in these polls, something like sixty percent of people in that

country say they're headed in the wrong direction. And in many ways, much of her presentation, regardless of what office she's been run from, has been some sort of fake and a phony. Well that seems to get the message out of a place where the days become difficult, or as the bloke said, you need to change the sheets. Back home. Here in Australia, let's talk about our old mat albow, greatest prime Minister of all time, of course, the man who will win the next five hundred federal elections.

Just ask him, just ask the people around him. Well, one thing again that many of the people who are paid to talk about politics on all the different parts of the media, they don't want to talk about, which is that the Prime minist is underwater in terms of approval of versus disapproval. More people disapprove and the News pole of the Essential poll and the Resolve poll to the point of seven percent in the News Pole three

percent the Essential. But what about in the Resolve poll, that one that turns up in the city morning here on the Age and the Brisbane Times, he's minus twenty

two right now. Now, of course we know why, and it's because what was promised has not been delivered and you can't b sua out of things like a labor government will lower the cost of everything, or telling people that no matter how many times you've lied, your word is your bond, my word is my bond, that you're going to cut their power bills.

of course there's the endless defense of the indefensible. And even when you have to move ministers who have done a shocking job in terms of protecting the country, well you don't admit that you did it because they did a bad job.

the rest of the year. And remember, and Anthony Abernezi, there had been not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, not nine, not ten, not eleven, but twelve interest rate rises the elbow doesn't thirteen in all since the very first one that happened during the election campaign back in twenty twenty two. Now, remember when this was the reaction of the Labor Party when interest rates went up once.

about it. But guess what turned out to be true. The people who promised everything delivered nothing. In fact, they made things worse. The people who said it was time to change the government because there was one interest rate rise now say reelectus, despite the fact there have been twelve. A thirteenth may will be on the way next week. But again, my sense of these things, in relation to the inflation numbers, which again are now starting to go back up, well is that most likely they'll take a

punt of another weight. But if prices continue to remain way closer to four percent inflation than two percent inflation, which is what the Preserve Bank wants, they're going to raise interest rates again. And even people who couldn't stand anything that I ever have to say, who think I'm wrong on every particular issue, and of course by their own admission as a self admitted liar, like nasty, Nikki Sava. Well, she's now identified that there is a serious political consequence

exactly what we're talking about for months. In fact, the headline on her thing today in the nine newspapers is whatever's achievements the Prime Minister? Another rate rise were just about Bury Albanesi. Another rate rise would gravely damage the government. It would almost certainly tip the economy into recession, making political recovery in time for the next election extremely difficult.

Welcome to reality, Nicki. But of course she likes to say that everything is the Peter Dutton problem, and even when she's pointing out the obvious concerns that are there inside the Labour Party, she still had a wack at Peter Dutton. But interestingly, it's been noted by a couple of people in the media that there may well be a new line of attack from the opposition that could work, that could get them closer than they currently are to government but yet a minority position, or even just a

healthier version of the opposition that currently exists. This is the new line of attack from Peter Dutton. Expect this to be said many times between now and the election. It's obvious to all Australians. Now, the Prime Minister may not be a bad person, but he's a shocking prime minister and he can't make decisions that ultimately are in the best interest of our country. Watch this space plenty

more action Again. My sense, my sizeable gut, is that they're not going to raise them in the next month. But will they raise them again before the end of the year. Plenty of economists say yes, and perhaps more than once. If it would virtually wipe out a prime minister, we just one imagine what two or three could possibly end up doing. That is some predictions from some economists. Now, I love clubs. I love clubs because it was the way that when I was growing up, you knew that

this was the local place to go. I wasn't really brought up by a family that went to the pub that often, but certainly whenever we had significant events, we would go to the local club. That's where you'd celebrate the birthdays and the significant events, the schnitzels and all the rest of it. So I love clubs. I love what they do and what they do for the community.

But also what I particularly love about clubs and bowling clubs is that they are a connection to the greatest generation, the people who went and fought for the country principally in and around World War Two, and these were the places that they hung out in the years to follow. It's where we, as their grandkids or you potentially as their children, were able to go and again celebrate major events. And I would hate to see these things slowly disappear.

But there is a reality that there are many clubs which are only barely staying alive in regional Australia. I know the particular importance of a thing like a club, and while I understand and Mate was telling me today that there's actually a significant number of people who are going to the club more than they used to because maybe the money they would have spent at a restaurant, they can spend well less money for the same type of food and offering at their local club or bowling club.

And I would hate to see these things disappear again. I think they are wonderful little reminders of the people who made the country what it is, the country that we seek to defend, that we seek to debate about each and every night. But there are some pretty active moves at the moment to find ways to either financially

cripple these clubs or just outright wipe them off the map. Now, whether the assumption is that that's because these are the places that may well still have a picture of Her Majesty when Elizabeth still hanging on their walls, because that was what was there decades earlier, but of course it's not. These places are places that have got a wonderful connection between in my case, grandparents, parents, and an opportunity to hang out with the kids. But when I say about

a war on clubs, it is coming on multiple fronts. Now, I'm not talking about the club that has got something like three hundred poker machines, and let's be honest, they have not really focused it and around anything to do with the return services anymore. They're basically sort of just giants, sort of mini casinos that yes, do a lot of good as well, but pretty obvious that one of the ma main reasons why they're open or four o'clock in the morning is so you can play the pokeys, something

I don't have a problem with. If you have a problem, of course you should seek counseling, But if you choose to do that with your entertainment good luck to you, But this is what's happening, particularly to bowling clubs in New South Wales. Now. Bowling clubs, of course, are not as big, not as powerful as some of the other clubs that are in and around our communities. They often exist on crown land and they are given ninety nine year leases, mostly by the state government but sometimes by

local councils. In the case of New South Wales, if your bowling club is on land that is owned by the Nis and Whales government, they are jacking up the rent right through the roof, and to me is no other option here than trying to choke these clubs out of existence.

local sporting or local bowling clubs. There's a place in Sydney called lane Cove. It's at the lower North Shore end of things and traditionally will end up sending Conservative members to the state or to the Federal Parliament. But as the telification of things, or in the case of lane Cove Council, the greenification of things, will guess what types of things they are starting to move against the symbol of the communities that represented the greatest generation. Because

of course everything in the past was terrible. Everything must be flushed down the toot and everything else must be renamed. Lankov Council decided to vote that you are not allowed to have poker machines on land. That is owned by the council. The person who made the suggestion is unsurprisingly a Greens counselor, and amazingly, seven of the nine people on the council voted in favor of this move, knowing that it will have a serious financial effect on a

couple of clubs in the area. The Green's Council, it's old the ABC. Unsurprisingly the council shouldn't be in the business of supporting gambling or supporting poker machines in any way. The response from the clubs that are affected here from our point of view as a small club, the impact is huge. Every dollar is huge for us. We are very community based. It would affect quite numerous community groups with the club. We have kick for kids, karate, we

also have elderly yoga. If you're serious about reducing gambling, it probably wouldn't be the first point of interest, correct. So here's the deal. In New South Wali, as there are about to be local government elections, question everyone who is running for counsel firstly what's their position on Australia Day and secondly what's their position when it comes to the local sporting clubs. But most importantly can you do me a favor this weekend. Go to your local bowlow

if you're able to have a role, do so. If you're only able to pop in just for some fish and chips, or maybe even just a couple of schooners on the way home, please do so. These clubs need it. Our friends of course at the balgowla bowling club, literally have a go fundme page up right now. We went and saw them when we were doing ourtown a few weeks ago.

continue to reverberate now. The Victorian Planning Minister, of course, is one of those people inside the Victorian government who apparently had some knowledge about the stuff that all of us learnt together via the sixty Minutes program. You may remember her appalling performance at a press conference.

what happened today. The Greens decided to vote with the government to stop an inquiry in the Upper House into who knew what and when about the CFMEU. There was also plenty of drama in question time as an opposition that we often correctly bag as not having any backbone actually showed they've got something in their spine somewhere.

So whoever made the decision today for the Victorian Liberal Party to stand up and walk out, well done. We'll talk about it with Michael Crogan in a moment here on Poor Murray Live. Tell me who do you think is the winner and loser of the week? Jump onto the socials? No, it looks no left is what a way to hang out this Thursday night. And other than Kristin Abrams of course, who joins us now? Of course, so you freedom fighter, A lovely lady who joints. Look

at you all dressed up looking amazing. They're in lovely Melbourne. Of course, the wonderful Michael Krogan who always looks great as well. See see how it's done? All right, great man, look as I come back.

in Australia, freely available in Australia. Yet a person behind their counter turns around says, no, they're not willing to do it.

expectations about the retail experience. But for obvious reasons. Here you've got a scenario where somebody is denying somebody access to a business because of the politics of what's happening on the other side of the world.

that company. Secondly, of course, if the boot was on the other foot and this was a Palestinian who'd been treated that way. The Left would have a thousand people outside the office works store today, you know, banging doors, chanting, carrying on and putting the management under extreme pressure. The Jewish community don't do that. Sadly, I wish they had one hundred people or a thousand people outside that store tomorrow, because this is sickening that this is happening in a

Jewish part of Melbourne. I had a friend when I was in Jerusalem and tel Aviv in January. I was talking to a fellow there who I said, helling you be in Israel. He said, I'd only just moved there to Tel Aviv from Corefield and I said, oh, why have you moved from Corfield to Tel Aviv? And he said, I feel much safer in tel Aviv.

these are all not reasons not to serve. We don't live in that sort of thing which gets argued in places like the United States where well a baker has the right, same says all of that garbage, right, how should this company respond to Kristen?

I do you know, I understand what Michael is saying, but I don't think they are going to be able to terminate because it is a lack of training and the lack of understanding of the policy, which obvious makes

it difficult. But it is sad that our society has gotten to this point where somewhere, you know, as trivial as office works, where you should be able to kind of get your stationary and basic printing here and there, all scanning, laminating, whatever it is you are having to engage in this political discourse where we should all feel safe in society.

happen from of recent months, the trashing of officers. We've seen it in multiple ways. And what I find amazing is that inevitably in the next twenty four hours we're going to go back to your interpretation of the conflict.

Is your interpretation of the video as opposed to saying the thing that makes Australia safe for all people of all faiths, of all opinions, is that because of your opinion bar something that is as Kristen says, obviously about pornography or all the really terrible and obvious things, that you are free to walk in and out of a shop and not be afraid that because you are a member of one Nation, or a member of the Greens, or somebody who wants to frame the Jewish newspaper or

somebody who wants to frame the Palestinian newsletter, that you will not be refused service. But how have we got here? I know that that's sort of a two hour answer to a ten second question. But we are at a point where if we don't push back on this stuff and say no, no, no, no, no, no no no. You can disagree, but you can't do this stuff, then we're going to become a very different joint. Or maybe we are. He have.

speech across the line. They've they've used our freedom to demonstrate crossing the line between what is acceptable and what is not acceptable, for example, yelling out slogans which involve, you know, demands and requirements for the Jewish state to be destroyed and Jewish people to be killed. The Left have pushed the boundaries deliberately, so because the Left try and intimidate the middle class who basically don't pay as much tension to these things as everyone else does. And

so what you've seen is a weak federal government. And I'm directly blaming Albanesi. I mean, he has been a hopeless, weak, pathetic leader on anti Semitism. The rise in anti Semitism in this country is a reflection of the fact that the Prime Minister has been hopelessly weak. He's been aided and avetted by Penny Wong's appalling behavior, appalling behavior towards Israel, and they've created this climate in Australia where there's some kind of moral equivalence between the Jewish cause and the

Palestinian cause. On the one hand, you've got a freedom loving liberal democracy in Israel, and on the other hand, you've got Palestinian leadership, who execute gays, who murder and behead you know, innocent Israelis who don't hold elections, who are opposed the democracy, who support terrorism, et cetera, cetera. He has successfully he's successfully done this.

when we meet on Sunday, we break back more. Here we are in conversation with Michael Kroger and Kristin Abram, of course, who is a libertarian com and Tata love to see you both. So let's talk about today and my theory of the case, Kristen, which is today was a very consequential day, and what's happening in the states right Firstly, we start to see a leveling up where it's basically fifty to fifty right now in the national

vote and the polls Trump was winning. Trump is leading still in all of the swing states, but Kamala is starting to pull a couple back, and now it looks like a scenario where if everything sort of stays where

it currently is, it could all come down to one state. Also, we saw, yes, the comments with the Blake journalists, but also I wanted to take the time to show where some of the potential Trump attack lines are going to be there about sort of the fake, phony and wrong stuff, which I think is going to be a much better message. But of course we'll be drowned out by the outrage

of what happened today. Do you think today was a consequential day or this is just one of those days where it's consequential for the media because they get to go orange man bad.

a massive problem with that. Every time I get to an achievement in my life that I have extremely worked extremely hard for, people turn around and go, yep, the diversity quota is there. Even if it is a joke, it's still said. So I think that is poor form. And I think if Trump continues to make these kind of comments and word vomit here and there, Kamela May, Stephen Brad Brieham, so he just needs to be careful on his word vomit, because if she doesn't run a campaign,

potentially the votes will continue to go on. Who knows what happens when she runs a campaign, though.

you know, the most serious things in history. So people just get behind their team in the end, Michael, again, we've all seen the poles. We've all seen that when it was Biden, what the path was going to be. We've all seen what's changed. We all see how fake some of this can be. So is your sense though, that today we saw the potential fight. We saw that sort of you know, the rumble and the jungle style sort of boxing UFC style. Trump is back and he's

the guy who wins. What what did you think we saw today?

most people have got no idea about Kamala Harris. They got no idea. I don't know anything about her, and what they've seen in the last week is she seems quite good. Oh, she's bouncy and foxy, and you know, you've been a prosecutor and she's a vice president. They don't know much about her. So the bottom line is this, if Trump allows the election to be about her, she

loses and her extreme liberal agenda. I couldn't think any of anyone less electable than a San Francisco born and bred and raised in the San Francisco Barrier if she was worked there for twenty years as a San Francisco prosecutor from California, Biden's vice president, the most liberal senator they've seen in the Senate for half a dozen years, versus Donald Trump. That would be an extraordinary thing in American politics, because the liberal San Francisco cannot get elected.

The only way she get elected is if Donald Trump, and you've got his number, mate ring him. You're a mate, can you tell him? Don't make this election about you, Donald, just get up and give you a stump speech about her record, the borders, blah blah blah. If he does that, he wins. If he allows the election to be about him, he possibly loses well also, but.

tunnel somewhere. They're the only two leaders left. After that, the new government can basically say we won and start the peace process. The lows of the week is your friend Mark Kelly, the Senator from Yeah, he was on his Arizona. He was on his way. Shapiro, because you are you are correct, Kamala Harris will announce Josh Shapiro, the governor of California, a government running mate for exactly there is.