Paul Murray Live | 1 April

lots to get to tonight. You can always set me an m up alot sky News dot com, dot you. But I want to focus, as always the start of the show on what should be a little bit higher in the news, but it isn't because there's not as many people who live there. But there will be a consequence to the economy. But more importantly, there are our fellow Australians that are suffering right now. These floods that are in and around Queensland. They are mega, they are

absolutely mega. The area of this thing is now apparently the best part of three thousand kilometers. It is the size of Victoria and then some. This thing is huge and there are huge communities in the trees that are being affected. As we speak. Here's the latest from sky News Weather Now.

well it was coming in from the east. This one is coming in from the west.

the roads to bring people in from their properties. It's basically sort of like a floating emergency room and they had been involved in many a rescue, including this one that was in the newspapers today that a man was lost for two days in floodwater in western Queensland. His four wheel drive became bogged and he's been dramatically rescued after building himself a makeshift shelter and he wrote the word help in the mud with a stick. Think about that.

He was found after walking sixty kilometers by cattle and goat farmers who were checking their stock and their fences. They saw his scrawled plea and an arrow pointing rescuers in his direction on a muddy road at the end of their driveway. Life Flight Rescue helicopter service, which was on standby in Charlaville for flood evacuations, then launched a search and rescue mission for the man after he failed

to arrive home last Friday night. This was by the way that structure that he was under for a couple of days sixty kilometers worth of walking that he had done very weak, and thankfully because of that aerial support, and thankfully because the farmers were out checking their own land. He is alive and with us today. Good stuff. Now I've got to call out a prime minister. The Prime Minister today spent a bit of time in Perth, spent a bit of time in South Australia. Couldn't be bothered

going to any of these communities. It is a disgrace that the so called leader of the nation, whom windlows or draw will stand there on election night and say I've been a Prime minister for all Australians is ignoring the very people who are in the middle of this situation. More rain in some parts has been recorded as a result of this flood event than the one that he

was running around in that being tropical Cyclone Alfred. You can't help but conclude that the reason that it is nowhere near it is because there's no votes in it, because there's no rolling coverage like there was when it was a more populous area in the southeast of Queensland. But he is the prime minister. He has the biggest microphone in the country and he has a traveling press pack with him. Prime Minister, if you truly seek to be a leader for all Australians, get off your ass

and go to this part of Queensland. I know the plan is to pretend that it doesn't exist because it's good old fashioned National or LNP or Catta country, but it's all Australia. This will have way more of an effect on a federal budget than what happened in the southeast. But of course all of that was just a way of changing the subject and I've got plenty more to say about that. But it's a disgrace that he has

not been there yet. If it was any other Prime minister, and this sort of situation was happening a little closer to town where we all know how the usual suspects will be going ballistic. Thankfully, Peter Dudden, he went yesterday thirty two days to go until Australia gets the chance to choose its next government. Do we get more of the same or is it time to get the joint back on track? As the opposition leader would say, that is thirty two days to go, twenty one days until the

very first votes are cast, three weeks away. From early voting. This is of course, where more than half of all people will vote. So essentially there are two campaigns. There's the one before and then the one that leads up to election day. Today. Peter Dudden fresh from that pub test last night, and you could see that he was pumped up not just by his family but by people who were keen for him to defeat one of the

worst prime ministers of all time. He's got a pretty simple message to those that are doubting what his future is in the next five weeks. Well, I don't think you've said anything yet.

million dollar, one hundred and fifty million dollars.

But I want to tell you a little bit about, as I say, the behind the scenes. Thank you again to the Kamiski family and the Eaton's Hill Hotel. We love that venue and we love Queensland. You know it's my spiritual home. I thought Peter Dunton did pretty well. Why because he wasn't getting the glaring faces of the people who hate him in the rest of the media, who was looking at people, including his family, who want him to do well.

become rolling coverage, lead news the main thing. They'd open Sunrise or The Today Show with no But all of the media organizations were at the pub last night. They were there, they saw what was taking place, and an actual fact, there was a little bit of push and shove from some of those media types. Now put simply,

the pub last night was effectively our television studio. And in the same way that I wouldn't expect if I sat here and interviewed Peter Dutton in the man cave for cameras for seven, nine, ten to two photographers from The Guardian to be standing on the other side of the camera. Just wouldn't work like that, as we wouldn't expect the Sky News cameras to go barreling onto the

set of the Today Show or ABC News Breakfast. But the decision was made by the Peter Dutton team to make sure that those people could come and could observe. And again I don't have a problem with them coming and observing, but they decided to just well some of them just gate crash parts of the event. Now, all of the stuff was being covered by our cameras that had been set up all day, with everything planned by an excellent team who put together all of our outside broadcasts.

But no, no, no, they wanted to get their own footage. They originally wanted to have their own cameras where we all know what type of footage they'd be getting. It wouldn't be anyone who was talking. They'd just be looking for somebody yawning or something like that. But they set themselves up in a sort of unplanned way to capture the alternative Prime Minister and his family walking in. But again,

that footage really never went anywhere. You see, the reality of why the press was there is because they were there for only two reasons. They wanted a protester or they wanted him to stuff up, neither of which took place. One because Peter Dutton was on his game and two because we are smarted the loons that have caused trouble in the past. And amazingly, again they were there, they watched it, and none of them decided to include his

performance because that would be considered positive. How dare they show a moment of levity? But of course if it's over on Channel two or if it's on their own networks, it'll be front and center. Again, I don't talk about this because I want everyone and all eyes on me. It's just every news organization was there, yet very few decided to report on it. But I guarantee if there

was a protest, you would have seen the photo. I guarantee if he had stuffed up or sworn, somebody had yelled at him, you would have seen those grabs on TV. And it's a bit of an insight into the traveling media pack. As you see with Anthony Albernezi, it's all laughs and jokes because, as I've said, they like the arrangement as it currently is. Much of the media does

not want a change in arrangements. So imagine their faces looking back at Peter Dutton whenever he makes an announcement, or of course, even if he makes an announcement or has a good night like last night, quickly changed the subject back to made up outrages. That's why they have to go around that camera collective and come to programs like this to speak directly to you, for you to be able to see the videos, for you to be able to share them, and all of them are up

now it's going news dot com, dot are you? And to further drive this point home and again, part of what I like to do during elections is not just talk about poles and we'll get into that and state of the race and team red and team blue, but talk about media games, talk about how they can choose to make one person look slightly better at the other person not so good. Now. Tim Lester is a reporter

with Channel seven. By all reports, relatively fair, but of course he's reporting not just for TV but doing stuff for the internet as well, and he is what he said today about where the Liberal Party had chosen to do one of its media events and why it might make the six pm news.

and it's pretty obvious which way they play now. In fairness to Tim Lester, he says that so far in the election, pet It Dudn's been doing a better job of providing the pictures than Anthony Abernese. Even today was a chance for Anthony Aberneze to have a better day because they were standing in a paddock. What they were announcing was significant in that paddock. And because you probably didn't hear what that announcement was, this is what he was announcing in that paddock.

Party directly to the reporter. Now, presumably this was a special exclusive that happened just before the news, but the special exclusive was modeling that showed that teams of thousands of people lose their job if nuclear power becomes the option. These are, of course the same people who used modeling to produce this lie at the last election about how much your power bills would be cut.

and TWOGB. I've seen it from lots of angles. I've talked about it on Breakfast TV way back when over on Channel seven, and I've spoken about it here for fifteen years. I know the little nuances of the way that they are spinning the ball, and they are going to spin as hard as possible. Remember, for the past two years they've been looking for a circuit breaker that got Anthony Abernezi back into the fight. At every opportunity

they have given him the benefit of the doubt. And right now they will do their absolute best to make sure that one candidate looks better than the other. But moments like the pub test one hour uninterrupted, moments like the People's Forum next week one hour uninterrupted, mean you get to see these people with your own eyes, not through their lens. Now. But you didn't hear this about Labour's budget now, believe it or not, it's just a week.

It's just a week since the Treasurer stood up and delivered the cost of living budget, but of course he didn't want to. There wasn't a lot of detail. They all expected they'd be already a couple of weeks into the election campaign by now, but because they were definitely not campaigning while campaigning in cycling now for it, while

of course ignoring what's happening right now in regional Queensland. Well, of course they said that the focus just one week ago of the event that you can't remember was cost of living, because every pole, every time tells us it is one, two and three in terms of priorities of people.

the day. We'll have a look at this. Sixty one percent of people in a poll in the Guardian, so that the budget won't or definitely won't substantially change or make any meaningful difference to the cost of living. When you break that down, by the way, by party supporters forty eight percent of Labor voters, so that the budget did not make a difference to cost of living, sixty

seven of the Libs fifty two. But have a look at that number of everyone from the Victorian socialists, through the Tiffany Teels all the way to the Trumpeter patriots and our mates of one nation. Eighty percent. Now this is where apparently the majority of undecided voters are parking their vote in a poll. Eighty percent say the budget didn't make a difference. But of course you remember that the government says it and says it and says it, and then the media turns around and reports it and

reports it and reports it. But just as it was after the last budget, is it is after this budget. What I told you on this show a week ago was bang on, which is not a way of polishing my own credentials, but saying, ignore the Canbra collective. The Camebra collective plays for one game, and one game only, and that's access. And if they think that there's a chance that the current mob is going to hold on,

they won't rock the boat. If they think the current mob is on its way out, they do everything they can to throw them under the bus. So the Prime Minister, the Treasurer and all the rest of them might go on and on and on, and the media might repeat it over and over and over.

in trouble, elbows back. The swagger around Parliament House was we're going to get a majority again because five bucks in one year. That'll keep the idiots happy. The media keep playing for access, they're not going to rock the boat. Well, you know what the current narrative is in the media, and it's pretty much what I just said.

my point right, trying to clean up the act. Well, the reality is that Peter Dudden had a good night last night. Peter Dudden performed well inside that pub test, but of course don't report it because that's positive news for him. Instead report that the Prime Minister is already trying to pump the tires and scare everyone that he's not running against Peter Dudden, he's not running against his own series of failures of the past three years. And

I no, of course, he's running against Donald Trump. But isn't it amazing the very people who talk about the posts all the time and tell you the news of the polls each and every day can't be bothered to actually read the poles any deeper than the headline. Because if you have a look at the essential poll today again, in the Turble Times, there was all that stuff about the budget. None of them talked about it because they'd

all done the sales job. You see. Don't admit that the sales job was wrong, because last year it was that the tax cuts were awesome. We knew they were twelve dollars for people earning forty thousand dollars, more than sixty percent of people now saying it didn't actually touch

the sides. Yet that's what we knew. Well even further into these poles, same poles available today, freely available on internet, no special deal, no email you have to sign up to fifty two percent of people say that the country is headed in the wrong direction. I got this wrong. I apologize that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Just twenty percent say that it is on the right track, and undecided is sixteen. So I've got that the wrong

way around in graphics. I apologize, but that was the pole. Fifty two percent of people say we are hited in the wrong direction. Oh and those who think the Prime minister's got that pep in his step got a bit of the swagger back that he deserves because you know he's getting a second term. More seats already drawing up the political kill list, as was reported by Sharry Markson for those who worked with him during tough times. The Resolve poll, yes, the one that has shown a change

in preferred prime minister. But what about the overall ratings of the prime minister. Forty nine percent of people say poor very poor, thirty nine percent say good or very good. The restaurant decided. But even if you split those in half, guess what more than fifty percent of people would say the Prime Minister is doing a poor or very poor job. Don't talk about it, pretend that Dunton didn't have a

good night last night. Don't rock the boat, show the Prime Minister holding up the Medicare card despite the fact that there's more money being spent by the coalition. Pretend that Donald Trump is the story. Not see how the game gets played again. I don't have special access all of these poles, all all this information is publicly available.

But because they want the headline to tell the story, or they can't be asked reading the detail because it doesn't serve the overall narrative of elbows back, then they are deliberately hiding the true picture from you. Why I don't understand. Oh yeah, and on the same websitees freely available, and even in the very newspapers that print on news organizations.

I say, it's not just papers anymore. There are comments from people to the polsters that they don't report, like about Anthony Ambernezi and almost half the country thinking he's doing the wrong job, more than half the country thinking we're headed in the wrong direction. He's like an immature child. He gets all angry when he gets a question he doesn't like. Pathetic. We're all going to have to pay for the tax cut with interest, but it won't even

buy a coffee. He's not doing anything. The world is changing every day and he's sitting on his hands. He doesn't keep his election promises, like on energy, So what's the point. Small business has been bled dry by him. It's just layer and layer of cost and red tape. And again, I bet you didn't see this in all I mean think about all the time that there is to talk about Australian federal politics, even on the six

pm news, let alone all the other forums. I bet you didn't see this that the Labor Party's primary vote is still below where it was at the last election. The change of fifty one to forty nine is all about people guessing what's going to happen with preferences now. The Liberal vote not much different than the last election either. But what is very different than the last election is the one nation Number one nation's up by four points.

Pauline Hansen has said if if O one nation preference the LNP, that will matter not just in queens Land but in lots of states where one nation does a whole lot better. Oh yeah, and you know how they always say it's the Liberal Party that has a problem with women have a look at this. The primary vote of the Labor Party is higher with men than women, when the Liberal National Party their vote is higher with

women than the Labor vote. Yes, the Greens do better with women, as do One Nation, and it's dead level when it comes to independence. But again, no one's going to be talking about that, are they, because it disturbs

the narrative, and I hope it. Saw Peter Credline earlier today who did an excellent job of pointing out a bit of history here about where the polls were at the start of that twenty ten election, where they were at the start of that twenty nineteen election, and they are even wider rangers than what we're dealing with right now about fifty one forty nine or the other way around.

The media think they shape the election. The media think they are at their most powerful when they can do their bit for a government that in return will give them an inside track not just on how the Labor Party's doing when it comes to this election, but why would anyone believe modeling that is handed to you five minutes before a news bulletin about opposition policy. No, and this is the same people who lied about the energy stuff. Now I get it. Daniel Andrews, Anastasia Palachet and Anthony

Alberaneze will also who cares you win an election? All that matters is winning well. The reality is people remember how you win. Remember Paul Keating was dead in nineteen ninety six because of how he won in nineteen ninety three. And Albou might think that he's got the inside track right now, but there are a very very very many weeks and many events, and they may think, let's get

the debates out of the way early. The fundamentals, the fundamentals, to repeat what Peter said earlier tonight, have not changed cost of living number one. The government has not done enough to change it. And even a survey in left leaning newspapers is telling us that one other thing I have to mention here, which is the shadow of Trump. Now you know I've got the red hat. Listen to Steve Bannon at the blow. I'm a big fan, all right, but let's not muck around. The next couple of days

are going to be rough. If he decides to throw a tariff our way, we're going to be in a world of trouble. Now, how both thought the initial way to deal with Donald Trump was to suck up to him.

will all find out now. For the record, of course, I think tariff's against our country are ridiculous. Of course they are unjustified, firstly because we import more from America than we export to America. And last time I checked, we just put eight hundred million dollars in their pocket when it comes to this orcus stuff. But they may well be big tariff news that happens by this time tomorrow.

Already every single minister tries to find some way to reference Trump, some way to pretend that they are running both equally against Peter Darden but also against Donald Trump. But are reminded of those of us that are Trump fans, that we are the minority in Australia. In fact, today there was some reporting again in the Channel nine newspapers and via their websites that was kind of shocking. And this was firstly about people's view about the presidential election.

This came out today, but of course it is about what happened in November of last year, which is Donald Trump was elected. Is a good or a bad outcome for Australia. Sixty percent of people say a bad outcome. Labor voters seventy percent, forty nine percent of Coalition voters, sixty three percent of other voters, and in marginal seats fifty eight percent of people say him being the president

is bad for Australia. There's also a whole series of issue by issue here where sixty percent sorry forty six percent of people say that Australia should pursue closer relations with other countries, including China, over the United States, that Australia should support Ukraine, whether that means troops or not sixty percent. And what about this threats to Australia. Thirty one percent of people say China is the biggest threat

to Australia over the next few years. Seventeen percent of people say the United States what about thirty eight percent of people saying all equally. That is frightening. Now, yes, taraffs make us all uncomfortable, But if you think the United States, not China, is the problem, this is frightening to see twenty six percent of labor voters say the US. That's more than the twenty two percent who say China.

The uncommitted voters twenty five percent say China. Thirteen percent of the United States and in the marginal seats thankfully they see China as the threat. But overall there are Australians amongst US who think the US, that Donald Trump is more of a danger than what the CCP is doing. I remind you right now in this country, the Chinese have a boat that's floating along the south of Australia. What it is doing it is mapping the cables. As Andrew Bolt has shown you in the past couple of days.

Inside that boat there could be a little submarine with the capacity to be able to cut one of those cables. Those are the cables that connect us to the rest of the world. Oh but Donald Trump's the threat. Albout desperately wants every day of the campaign not to be about him. What he promised three years ago, and how

he has failed for the past three years. The media playing for access, wanting to change your subject and not allowing Dutton to get at a first gear will do everything they can to give him what he wants, but of course they can't control you, how you vote and most importantly who your preference, because that really matters. Quick break back with more State of the Race special version Kroger versus Conroy, No holds barred ding Dan. Let's get

into it. Oh, let's get ready. Heavyweights, no gloves, no mouthguards, and all low blows are acceptable. None other than the wonderful Stephen Conroy normally hit help on a Wednesday. He's fighting on a Tuesday. Michael Kroger says, whatever, Pal, I've dusted this bloke off before. Let's see what happens again. Lad's love you to see you both.

And even again, what the media did last night were the only reason they were at that thing with Peter Dutton was because they wanted a gaff or a protester. But if it's a good night, sh don't don't show any of it. Michael whiter than that start of the race? What do you feel right now?

You know, he's full of big announcements. On the other hand, Albow, who's not a good campaigner, seems very placid, almost sleepy. He's got to stop doing these Medicare announcements because people are thinking five days, you've had five announcements in front of the Medicare sign. People are saying to it, Malbow, Medicare is not under threat. It's not going to be gutted. Mate, get out and meet some real people, make some real announcements.

But as I said the other week, mate, Albow's problem is there are so many topics he cannot go near. The only topics he can really go near a Medicare and Trump. He can't go near immigration, cost of living, power prices, Jewish community, crime, safety, housing, young people. The list goes on and on. He'll be a very short visit with the Victorian Premier to morrow, if she appears at all. Chris Bowen's disappeared. There's so much he can't do. So what does you do every day it's in front

of the Medicare sign. He's been doing this for five days. He's got to stop this. People are saying, this guy's got nothing to announce. Well, so his problem is that doesn't have to be much in his locker. There seems to be a lot in Peter Dutton's locker, and the momentum is now back with Peter Dutton.

the poles are, all the rest of it. But the full picture of the polls and especially that failed the land when it comes to the budget is a little sober. Reminded all those people who were saying in around the corridors of Labor we're not just back, we could win ninety seats.

last ten or twelve. What has Michael mentioned a little bit, I mean agrew with Michael's analysis on substance, and I think at times in a parallel universe to Michael and some of his analysis of what's actually gone on in the campaign so far. Peter Dutton has had probably is worse. And I've admired his ability to keep the Liberal Party together. That is an incredible achievement in the first term after you lose, and.

will be on top of this. I know other channels have got spookers, but watched Tom Connall on election night. He will be dissecting seats going in four or five different directions. And this is going to be a real challenge for those of us who FOLLOWUPOLO. It's not going to be a normal election night.

the greatest worry you have for your side? Though, Stephen, Look, I.

campaign is going to be a critical factor. So we need our Bo to keep going like he's had so far, because that's been high quality, and he's looking like he's engaged, he's looking like he's got a little bit of passion, and I think he's come out of a blox, whereas I think Peter has just had a bit of a fumble in the blocks. I absolutely accept I think he'll he'll pick up and come through and those poles will tighten. I mean, any Labor voters out there, do not for

a moment that complacent. The polls will tighten as they always do during the election campaign.

down with him, but he's bankrupted Victoria. So the biggest worries that Albo says, Listen, I'm going to fall behind in the polls, which is about to I need to win. I'm not going to be labeled as the first prime minister in ninety years. Blah blah blah blah blah. I don't care what it costs. I'm going to bring dental into medicare, so across the nation, everyone's dental is covered by your Medicare card, to which people will say, Albo, that's going to cost tens of billions a year. You

can't be serious. And he will just say I'm doing it anyway, or I'm doing it for everyone up to thirty or everyone over forty, or or something right, some big, outrageous economic policy, because more people will be keen on voting for that than are worried about the debt. So that's my biggest worry that he just basically says, so I'm going to blow the budget. I don't give a stuff.

in Sundry it's a marginal seat. Someone might want to tell either the bookies or the modelers or the people actually know what they're talking about. Now. Of course, you blokes know there is a difference between a pub test, which is overtly political, and the outtown, which is the celebration of a local area. Okay, well, the first time we heard from this teal of Community Independent was of course, I think, only on Friday, right, because they demanded to

be on the show. They thought this was a forum that was going to be delivered as a free kick to the liberal MP. The only problem was it was a celebration of to Woomba, so they decided to turn it into a thing. And this is sort of stalking, but I'll show it to you anyway.

Manik Ryan to hold on now. I mean she's been favored all the way through because Teals normally increase their vote, but giving the disgusting, dirty, dirty campaign that the people around her are running to her husband, I think it's hard for her to it. I think it's hard for people to vote for my neck Ryan. And then you go to Bradfield where the Teal candidate in the hairdressing Saline made that horrific remark to that nine year old girl.

You've got all these Teals that have voted with it, assigned that unrefunding letter, you know, profoundly ignorant, calling on the government. I've going to store funding to organization or riddle with terrorists, blah blah blah. Yeah, all right, I think the til votes off.

Stephen Conroy is here. They're looking so it's easy for them. Just looks into one camera. I get confused by seven different ones that are here. All right, let's go through. You'll your target seats here. Let's do a speed round on this, Michael, for those that want to write things down. Obviously not to seat boy seat bedding, but give me an idea of what you're looking at.

Then in Victoria and I don't think it will be anything like this, but you can have McNamara, chisholm Aston mcure and Wills, Bruce Dunkley, Holt Hawk kore Anga mate, give you a long list which shows that victory by Elbows Victoria is the state that will determine its election. Possible Labour games sturt like Art Brisbane, Griffith Ryan and

possibly Fouler from the independence in New South Wales. So you see Dunton's task to get it even past seventy becomes incredibly much more difficult if Labor wins two or three seats, because that means he's got to win four or six seats to match the ones that we've won. So it is a very very challenging night. I've said, watch Tom Connell. But this is still very much in the balance. There's a lot to play out in these four weeks.