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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyleonfinance.org
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. To contact Patrick visit http://onfinance.org Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance DISCLAIMER:This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
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Episodes

Evergrande and Kaisa Default!

Send us a textLink for next suggested piece: Chinese State Owned Developers Rescue Local Governments! - YouTubeInvestors are waiting for news about tens of millions of dollars of overdue interest payments owed by Chinese Property Developers Evergrande and Kaisa. The firms both appear to be overdue on payments to bond holders. Evergrande's shares closed at a new record low on Wednesday after falling by 5.5% in Hong Kong trade.If, Evergrande did fail to make these payments on time, the stage co...

Dec 09, 202113 min

Didi Delisting - Less Than 6 Months After IPO!

Send us a textJust five months after going public on the New York Stock Exchange, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Global said it plans to delist from the New York Stock Exchange and pursue a Hong Kong listing as it bends to Chinese regulators angered by its US IPO.“Following careful research, the company will immediately start delisting on the New York stock exchange and start preparations for listing in Hong Kong,” Didi said on its Twitter-like Weibo account on Friday.Didi did not explain it...

Dec 07, 202112 min

Short Selling Disasters!

Send us a textSubscribe to The Daily Upside! (Free Business & Finance Newsletter) https://bit.ly/3lwt7LTShort squeezes have been all over the news this year as retail investors banded together to spoil the fun for hedge funds in some well-known stocks. Short squeezes are not new though, they’ve been around as long as short selling has. In today’s video we look at the most disastrous short selling fails to see what lessons we can learn. These are some of the craziest finance stories you wi...

Dec 04, 202122 min

My Investment Plan For 2022!

Send us a textA few weeks ago, I made a video on how the world of investing has changed over the last few years. I explained how much easier investing had become in 2021, as there is much less of a need for the type of analysis people used to do in the past. The trick today is to invest in things that seem funny, and hope that Elon Musk then tweets about them. In today's video I lay out my investment plan for 2022.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amz...

Dec 01, 202111 min

What Is The Replication Crisis?

Send us a textIn 2005, Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis published a bombshell essay titled “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”, which noted that the results of many medical research papers could not be replicated by other researchers. Subsequently, several other fields have turned a harsh eye on themselves and come to similar conclusions. The heart of the issue is a phenomenon that researchers call “p-hacking”. Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke univer...

Nov 25, 202114 min

Chinese State Owned Developers Rescue Local Governments!

Send us a textChinese state-owned developers are rescuing cash-strapped local governments in China by stepping to the fore at land auctions previously dominated by private sector groups like Evergrande.State-owned bidders include highly leveraged local government finance vehicles, which have traditionally focused on infrastructure projects rather than real estate. LGFVs have accounted for about one third of land purchases by value at auctions since September, compared with just over 10 per ce...

Nov 18, 202113 min

Elon Musk's $162 Million Dollar Joke

Send us a textJP Morgan Chase is suing Tesla for $162 million over tweets in 2018 by Technoking Elon Musk that he would take the electric vehicle maker private.JP Morgan accuses Tesla of "flagrantly" breaching a deal it claims should have triggered payments to JP Morgan.JP Morgan's suit, filed in a Manhattan federal court, says that Tesla sold warrants to JP Morgan allowing the bank to purchase shares if the "strike" price was below Tesla's share price when the warrants expired in 2021."We ha...

Nov 17, 202115 min

How China’s CEOs Sold Stock At The Right Time

Send us a textIn China, there is no better sell-signal than when the president, starts attacking an industry.So when Xi said in March that home-schooling was a “stubborn malady” that was putting too much pressure on Chinese children and their parents, the executives of two Chinese tutoring companies dumped their shares in New York according to records found by the FT.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https:/...

Nov 13, 202113 min

The Federal Reserve Warns About Evergrande

Send us a textThe Federal Reserve warned that fragility in China’s commercial real-estate sector could spread to the U.S. if it deteriorates dramatically, as investor focus turns to China Evergrande Group’s biggest payment test yet. The Fed’s stability report, which is meant to highlight risks that could undermine the financial system, said that “stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect ...

Nov 11, 202116 min

Squashing Tether - The Coming Regulation in Stablecoins

Send us a textFederal regulators requested more power from Congress to regulate stablecoins, a fast-growing type of cryptocurrency that they warn could result in bank runs and consumer abuse unless lawmakers act quickly, according to a report issued Monday by the Treasury Department.The report, which was undertaken by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, called on Congress to pass a law that makes issuers of stablecoins subject to requirements like those of traditional banks an...

Nov 06, 202113 min

Zillow's Home Flipping Business Made No Sense

Send us a textZillow, the digital real estate company, said on Tuesday that it’s exiting Offers, its business that buys and flips homes, and eliminating 25% of its workforce.The announcement was attached to Zillow’s third-quarter earnings report. The company’s revenue and earnings missed analysts’ estimates.“We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,” Zillow CEO Rich Barton said in the release. “Continuing to scale Zillow Offers would res...

Nov 06, 202111 min

Squid Game Crypto Rug Pull

Send us a textThe anonymous scammers behind a Squid Game cryptocurrency have officially pulled the rug on the project, making off with an estimated $2.1 million. Investors were able to purchase the crypto but couldn’t sell it. The SQUID cryptocurrency peaked at a price of $2,861 before plummeting to $0 around 5:40 a.m. ET., according to the website CoinMarketCap. This kind of theft, commonly called a “rug pull” by crypto investors, happens when the creators of the crypto quickly cash out thei...

Nov 02, 20218 min

Ending The Tragedy of The Commons

Send us a texthttps://teamseas.org/ The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic idea made popular by the American ecologist Garrett Hardin, who used the analogy of ranchers grazing their animals on a common field. Individual ranchers will seek to add additional livestock, to increase their profits. The benefit of adding additional animals accrue to the rancher alone, while the costs are shared. The tragedy is that ultimately the field will be destroyed, due to overconsumption. ...

Oct 30, 202114 min

Meme Coins & The Elon Markets Hypothesis

Send us a textIn this video we look at meme coins and learn about the Elon Markets Hypothesis. Patrick explains why he is all in on Shibu Inu.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePat...

Oct 28, 20217 min

Do Companies Pay For S&P Index Membership?

Send us a textDo Companies Buy S&P500 Membership? A new working paper attempts to figure out why some companies make it into the blue-chip stock market index.In recent years there has been a huge shift away from active asset management and towards passive, index-tracking funds. The indices that these funds follow have in turn gained enormous power, becoming gatekeepers to the flow of trillions of dollars.Names like S&P Dow Jones, FTSE Russell and MSCI are the biggest index providers a...

Oct 26, 202115 min

Everything You Thought You Knew About GameStop Was Wrong!

Send us a textThe SEC published its report on GameStop $GME this Monday, which focuses on the January 2021 trading activity of GameStop Corp (GME), the most famous of the "meme stocks." Because the meme stock episode raised several questions about market structure, the staff report also provides an overview of the equity and options market structure for individual investors.The SEC Report on GameStop: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-212Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trad...

Oct 21, 202121 min

Bitcoin on The Big Board - The New Bitcoin ETF

Send us a textThe first bitcoin-linked ETF is scheduled to make its NYSE debut officially on Tuesday morning.The new ETF from ProShares, will track the bitcoin futures market and trade on the NYSE under the ticker “BITO.”According to ProShares a multitude of investors have been eagerly awaiting the launch of a bitcoin-linked ETF after years of efforts to launch one, BITO will open up exposure to bitcoin to a large segment of investors who have a brokerage account and are comfortable buying st...

Oct 18, 202112 min

Biggest Trading Mistakes!

Send us a textA small London based crypto asset trading platform called DeversiFi got quite a shock two weeks ago when it mistakenly paid out a $24m fee to a large crypto miner. Transferring crypto deposits generates a fee, known in the industry as a “gas fee”, to compensate miners for the computing energy used to verify transactions on the blockchain. DeversiFi should have paid out around $5, but instead transferred 23.7 million dollars due to an error in their code.A few fat finger errors l...

Oct 16, 202112 min

Evergrande Audit Failure!

Send us a textPricewaterhouseCoopers earned over forty million dollars in fees auditing China Evergrande and signed off on the accounts presented to them by management for all of those years. PWC is likely to face criticism over the level of push back they gave to management over accounting policies that could have shown warning signs about the company’s financial health many years before the collapse.Around the world, auditors have faced criticism when companies have collapsed, and aud...

Oct 13, 202110 min

Could Evergrande Impact Global Property Prices?

Send us a textChina’s crackdown on property developers threatens the London property market.Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond. A property consultant close to London’s development market was contacted in the wake of the Evergrande crisis by a UK regulator with concerns about the risks of contagion in London. “Th...

Oct 12, 202112 min

The Pandora Papers - Everything You Need To Know!

Send us a textRevelations from nearly 12 million leaked confidential financial records have thrown light on the concealed wealth of powerful public figures around the world. How do they hide their money, and why is this information important? The Pandora Papers were released this week showing that Jordan’s King - Abdullah II amassed $100 million in property including homes in The United States and London. An alleged mistress of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s leader managed to covertly buy a lu...

Oct 09, 202123 min

Another Evergrande? Fantasia Holdings Defaults!

Send us a textOn the heels of Evergrande’s debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China’s real estate market after Fantasia Holdings failed to make a bond payment.Fantasia Holdings, a Chinese developer of luxury apartments missed $315 million in payments to lenders on Monday, sparking fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property sector are spreading beyond the troubled Evergrande conglomerate.Fantasia Holdings, a Shenzhen-based developer, missed repaying $206 ...

Oct 09, 202110 min

Are Rising Energy Prices The First Sign Of Greenflation?

Send us a textOver the last month the news has been dominated by stories of energy shortages around the world. China has seen major industrial output cuts caused by power outages over the last year, European gas prices are trading near record highs and the UK is reeling from the political fallout of a surge in energy prices. US oil prices rose to the highest level in seven years after OPEC and its allies declined to accelerate plans to increase crude production, snubbing calls from the White ...

Oct 05, 202115 min

What Does China's Crypto Ban Mean? Will Other Countries Follow Suit?

Send us a textIn the latest of a series of crypto crackdowns, Chinas central bank announced on Friday that overseas facilities offering cryptocurrency services inside China are “illegal”. It warned that any local staff who help these businesses operate, or even provide marketing and technical support, “shall be investigated”. This is the most direct crackdowns by a major regulator against “offshore” exchanges that have proliferated as interest among traders has boomed in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Do...

Sep 30, 202117 min

Evergrande & The Chinese Economy

Send us a textThe financial woes of Evergrande the once-mighty Chinese property developer highlight a showdown between two competing objectives for China's Communist Party. They aim to force China's private sector away from speculative and risky lending practices while avoiding a financial meltdown and the collapse of the property sector, in which more than 70% of the nation's urban wealth is locked up.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives ...

Sep 23, 202116 min

Evergrande Wealth Management Products - A Ponzi Scheme?

Send us a textIn an interview with local media, an Evergrande financial adviser said the products were a type of “supply chain finance”. While the money from retail investors may in years past have gone to its suppliers, the Evergrande executives in Shenzhen receiving retail investors said this was no longer the case.One of the executives of Evergrande’s wealth management division said Hubei Gangdun was just a shell company. “Proceeds from the Wealth Management Products have been used to brid...

Sep 22, 202110 min

Evergrande Crisis Intensifies

Send us a textThe liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer Evergrande shook global markets this morning with stocks falling in Asia, Europe and New York.The S&P 500 fell 2.1 per cent in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.6 per cent. The Vix, which measures expected volatility on the S&P, hit 26.5 — around its highest level since May.Monday’s sell-off came after shares in Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, closed 10 per cent lower in Ho...

Sep 21, 20219 min

Evergrande - China Faces a Potential Lehman Moment

Send us a textThe implosion of Lehman Brothers, 13 years ago this week, showed the world how the collapse of a single company can send shockwaves around the world. Echoes from that event are resounding today as a massive Chinese property developer teeters on the brink of default.The collapse of Evergrande Real Estate Group - China's second-largest property developer with $310 billion of debt outstanding, could set off a chain reaction that spreads overseas.Wall Street is keeping a...

Sep 18, 20219 min

Investing In Collectibles - Are NFT's Digital Beanie Babies?

Send us a textThe Beanie Babies Bubble is a particularly entertaining story which highlights all the hallmarks of a mania. Mass delusion. Speculation. Out of control expectations. The herd mentality.Right now, it might appear that we are in another collectibles boom, in February this year, a Michael Jordan basketball card sold for $738,000 at auction. The exact same card had traded for more than half a million dollars less just a few weeks earlier. A Klon Centaur guitar effects pedal is being...

Sep 16, 202116 min

The Difference Between Trading And Investing

Send us a textIn today's podcast Patrick discusses the famous Warren Buffett quote “calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor “is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.” from his 1991 letter to investors.Topics covered are: what is the difference between trading and investing? Is one better than the other, and does it make sense to discourage short term trading? Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn....

Sep 09, 202113 min
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