#565 Packers Unscripted: Big rival, big game

I were it was the old days. You and I'm at a metal you know, table together, no masks, just frolicking around. But this is the world we live in. I'm happy to be here, happy to be healthy, and happy for some Packers football this Sunday against Chicago Bears. Yeah. Well, it will be Sunday Night Football primetime audience, the final game of the big Thanksgiving weekend of all of the football activity around the country lambou Field, seven pm Central Time on Sunday night. And as we talked about on

our last show, There's Almo. You almost can't overstate the importance of this game because while the Packers can try to take a three game lead in the NFC North with five to play. The Bears are looking at trying to get within one game with five games to play, and the dynamic of this division race is going to completely change depending on the result of Sunday night's games. So as we get into this here, where does the path to victory start for the Green Bay Packers to

get to eight and three? I mean, honestly, Mike, it's probably as simple as just trying to keep the Bears off the scoreboard. Uh. This season, the Chicago Bears, it's been a grind for them to put up points. And during their four game losing straight now I mean ten points three against the Saints, seventeen against the Titans, thirteen

against Minnesota. Now, credit to them, their defense has kept them in a lot of these things, but they just haven't been able to produce points to come up with victories in this season, only one game with more than thirty, only two with more than twenty three. So for the Green Bay Packers, I really do believe this is it's as simple as it can be. It you put up points,

you score early, you established momentum. No, it's not an easy defense to do that against but if you get production, it's ultimately going to be something that I don't think the Bears, with the way that they're situated right now, especially as the temperatures begin to dip here, they're not

really built for a shootout. Yeah, that's definitely not the type of game that the Bears want to get into, and certainly it would behoof the Packers to get off to a strong start and put that Bears defense, Bears offense, excuse me, behind the eight ball, I think defensively for the Packers. I think this whole thing starts, and I hate to use cliches, but it all starts with stopping the run. And I have my reasons for for using that cliche. In this particular matchup. The Chicago Bears have

lost four straight game aimes. They've had a chance to catch their breath on their bye week and reassess and look at everything and figure out how they're going to move forward offensively. Specifically, now, as you and I are taping this, we did cheat a little bit, taped it a little early, so we don't know at this particular moment whether the Bears are going with Mitch Dubiski or Nick Foles, or who is going to be the quarterback.

But I think regardless of who the quarterback is for Chicago on Sunday night, the Bears are going to come into lambeau Field with a fierce commitment to run the football to help out that quarterback. And here's the things. This was the statistic I got off of Actually the Chicago Bears website, they're my counterpart. Their senior writer at their website had his Tuesday afternoon chat. So I stalk

your Wednesday afternoon chat. You guys have a battle. Yeah, we're we we bet we battle with our live chats day after day. But I I stalked it a little bit just to see what what Larry Meyer. Larry is a great guy. I talked to him at the Combine, you know, on an annual basis, and and see him when we are traveling. But he he had a statistic that really struck me. West and here it is. The first three games of the season, the Chicago Bears averaged a hundred and thirty eight rushing yards per game and

they were three and oh. Since then, the Bears have averaged fifty two rushing yards per game and they are two and five now looking at the aggregate totals. That means in the first three games, the Bears rushed for over four hundred yards, and in their last seven games they haven't even hit the four hundred yard mark on the ground. I think if the Bears are looking to reset and reassess and figure out how to get this offense going, it goes back to being committed to running

the ball. And I don't I don't know if it's going to be Cordurell Patterson, if David Montgomery will be healthy, if it's going to be the wide receivers taking handoffs, whatever the case might be. But I think the Packers have to be ready for the Bears to be strongly committed to the run and this game, and that's where it starts for the Packers. Yeah, and the right now, I mean, there's still a whole week to play out here, but it does look promising for Montgomery to potential to

be back for this game. That's sort of the reports coming out of Chicago right now. But to get to your previous point, that's been the big issue. It's not that there's a difference between not having a running game and not having a running back, and that's where the Bears have been here since basically, well one, they lost Cohen right away at the beginning of the season. That was a big blow to their offense, and then not

having Montgomery due to this concussion. As you said, Cordorill Patterson is handling a lot of the handoffs now, and as fast as he is. It's a different game when you're in the backfield and there's all those bodies as opposed to when you're in the open field and you can create we'll talk about keys to victory here. He's certainly among them, but he's just not a natural running back, although if you go back, he did hurt the Packers a little bit during his time out of the backfield

in New England. So David Montgomery here, as you and I have said for basically the last two and a half years, this is the guy that they need to lean on. He needs to be the man. They made so many decisions, including last year with Mike Davis cutting him midseason, to commit to Montgomery. If he's back on the field, this game changes a lot because, as you pointed out with those statistics, it hasn't even been a

situation where they can't run the ball. They just haven't really even seemed to have it in their d n A offensively without him on the field, still a lot of weapons to worry about, regardless of who the quarterback is. Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the National Football League. He can hurt you. I think Cole Clement has had some big moments this year. He can hurt you. But that backfield, if Montgomery's back there, that's where my eyes are at for. Find Mike mc

patton and this Packers defensive line. Yeah, and the Packers on on the run defense side of things. We've just seen. We've seen so much up and down with it. The first half against Jacksonville, James Robinson looks like he's running wild. Then the second half against Jacksonville, the Packers clamped down. Robinson doesn't get a whole lot. Jonathan Taylor doesn't get much at all the first half for the Colts this

past Sunday. Then in the second half, the Colts run game gets cranked up and and the Packers are on their heels and suddenly can't stop the run again. It's it's been this up and down, this up and down thing, and you know the Bears. The Bears are looking at that film. They they're going they're going to try to figure out a way to get this ground game going and the and the Packers need to get some some

measure of steadiness and consistency with their run defense. Because whoever the quarterback is for Chicago, I think it's probably going to be True Whisky, but we'll just have to see for sure. Whoever the quarterback is for Chicago, the Packers have to put the game in that person's hands. And if it is True Whisky, you have to be aware of the scrambling and the running around and whatnot more so than anybody else. But that's that's who the Packer.

The Packers have to turn the Bears offense over to the quarterback and not let that running game control the tempo. You know, we always talked about in the past, you know, Aaron not Aaron Rodgers, but Brett Farve, if he would have just come a little bit earlier to Green Bay and if Sterling shar but it just lasted a little bit longer, you know what that could have been like together.

Matt Nage never was able to cross paths with Matt Forte, but my goodness, what a combo that would have been when you think about the style of offense that Naggie wants to run, and there have been needed to be a lot of concessions for to kind of tailored to the personnel in Chicago. But that's really the back that's been missing from this team since he left five years ago. Uh and and just the guy that can be a he can be a bell cow, he can run between

the tackles, he can catch. I think Montgomery has a lot of those trades, but he just doesn't seem to have that final one where it's like, this is a guy that you can just ride playing and play out or he's still a young developing player who has had some injury issues and hasn't hasn't really established that consistent presence yet. He may get there, but he's not there yet. Yeah. It's just it's I I because I was incredibly high

and I remember saying that to you. I'm like, when they had to trade all those picks to get klil Mac that draft I was I would have been totally fine if David Montgomery was my first pick the third round that year. But for you know, whatever reasons, injuries, offensive structure, it hasn't happened yet, and the Packers have to make sure on Sunday that it doesn't happen if

he is on the field. Yeah, alright, Well, before we switch to the offensive side of the ball for green Bay, here serious x M NFL radio channel is the only radio outlet dedicated to the National Football League seven days a week, three hundred sixty five days a year. And Packers fans be sure to gear up for game day. Open a Packers checking account from Associated Bank and score a fifty dollar Packers Pro Shop gift card. Learn more

Associated bank dot com backslash Packers. All right, on the offensive side of the ball here for Green Bay, this is this to me is the is the interesting statistic going into it West. We know the Bears defense is good. They don't give up a lot of points. Their first in the league in third down defense. Packers are fourth in the league and third down offense. That's an interesting matchup here. But here's the thing. The Chicago Bears are

four in the league against the run. They're actually giving up a hundred and fifth teen rushing yards per game, which is slightly which about a yard per game more than Green Bay. The Packers are actually ranked thirteenth against the run for all of their ups and downs in in that phase of things. I think the Packers, Matt Lafleur in this offense needs to have a certain commitment to the run here against the Chicago Bears defense, whether it's Aaron Jones or Jamal Williams or whoever you want

to to to feature more. Packers have got to get the ground game back. It's much like the Bears. The Packers have to get their ground game back to where it was in September in terms of the production for this offense to uh to really be at at at full steam and full strength for four quarters. And I think the Packers will look to do that on Sunday night. Yeah, And I think even if you listen to Matt Lafleur coming out of that game and even sort of the the tone of his voice here the last week or so,

they want to be more committed to the run. When they were really offensively pushing the tempo earlier this season, it was because they were running the ball well, specifically with Aaron Jones. So the question here is going to be finding the tempo right because to some extent, I understand why they didn't run the ball more. Against Indianapolis, they opened in a five receiver set. It was a great call. They got one on one looks for Davante Adams.

But as we saw going back to the Mike McCarthy era, that's a great aggressive mindset to have. But if that's an incompletion, you're looking at second and ten, and then you're looking at third and long. If you aren't able to find either another pass or break a run, that's where you start to play from behind a little bit. I thought one of the things Green they did exceptionally well during their four game winning streak to start the year,

was that there was such a good balance. But all those past concepts sort of were predicated on what they were establishing with the run. They've been up against it. Aaron Jones has been hurt. Tyler Irvin now is dealing with a second injury. He had the risk now he has a rib injury. They've had to really make all these modifications. But I just go back to that tried

and true stat Mike. It's not fun. It's not some like great PFF for sabor metric thing, But if you look at the history here when Aaron Jones touches the ball twenty or more times in a game, it turns out pretty good for Green Bay and they just haven't been able to get in that vicinity as of late. Yeah, and I was looking up some numbers and I actually uh wrote about that in the Wednesday Insider Inbox edition. Aaron Jones only had fourteen touches against the Indianapolis Colts.

So you wonder, like, why aren't the Packers giving them ball more? Well, the Packers only ran fifty seven offensive plays in the game. The two three and ounce in the third quarter and combined with you know, the Colts with the long drives and then you have the fumble on the kickoffs so you lose a possession. There the number of opportunities the package try to run on those two three, Yeah, and and they did, they did exactly,

But overall, the number of opportunities are down. When we've seen Aaron Jones getting the twenty plus touches per game, the Packers are running, you know, well north of sixty offensive plays total, They're up at six sixty eight, you know, maybe even seventy plays. I think the first game of the season against Minnesota, green Bay ran like seventy five offensive plays. I mean, just think the difference between seventy five plays in Week one and fifty seven plays last week.

It's a huge difference over the course of the game. So it's it's all of it's all of that. It's it's about getting it's about getting the offense, you know, in in that consistent move the chain's mode to get Aaron Jones all those opportunities that you'd like him to get, because you do want Aaron Jones to touch the ball more than fourteen times in a game. Everybody would admit that, you know exactly. And again it's one of these deals where you just have to figure out exactly what's working

for you. I thought last week, even though green Bay did come up short, Okay, that's the reintegration of al Lazard in the offense. That's having Robert Tonyan and you know, your main playmakers. I even made the comment during the game that you know, after a game in which against the Jacksonville that they were swinging in Jowan Winfrey from the practice squad. He played a half dozen plays. It was more your standard four top four receivers. In this

game with Lizard Adams mvs. Obviously, and then e q st Brown getting the twenty three yards screen. The biggest question I have going into the month of December here is, Okay, you've you've gotten this far. You've got Aaron Jones healthy, Jamal Williams is doing fine. What does this look like? What does the Matt Lafleur offense look like as you move into the month of December. How much running are we going to see? What are the allocations of snaps

going to look like? We always used to joke about I personally, did you know Mike McCarthy had always have this list of Okay, well we gotta get Eddie Lacey, this mini carries, and James starts, this mini carries, and Christian Michael this mini carries. I remember even seeing it on the board. It never worked out that way, but Mike had what he was aiming for, just seeing what the preparation is and how that gets affected throughout the course of the game. That I think that starts on Sunday.

I think you're facing a team that, yes, you said they are giving up yards on the run, but I think their tenth in the in the league when it comes to average yards per carry. They hold up their end of the bargain, but they're there to be had. I think it's a great test for green Man. I think it's something they need to do look at, specifically as a running the game to be able to bounce back after what some of the things that came upshot

against Indianapolis. Yeah, and not that we need to belabor the belabor the point on third down because third down is always important. But as I said, the Bears are first in the league and third down defense percentage wise. The Packers are fourth in the league and third down offense percentage wise. They're going to be some critical, critical third downs in this game on Sunday Night that that

will factor in. I want to just get your thoughts on some other games on Sunday, since we get to watch the bulk of the Sunday slate before the Packers will kick off in the evening. Your thoughts on on Carolina going to Minnesota. And I bring this up because Carolina is a team the Packers will be playing in December. That game has now been slated for Saturday night on December nineteenth at lambeau Field. But if you ever if you ever want an example of the NFL being a

week to week league. As we talk about. Two weeks ago, the Carolina Panthers gave up forty six points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Seven days later, they shut out the Detroit Lions and one to zero. I don't know if I've ever seen that from forty six points allowed to zero from week to week. But my point is Carolina, you don't really know what you're gonna get. And now Minnesota is they're they're hanging by a thread here in the NFC North because of that lost to the Dallas Cowboys.

That's just I gotta I have to comment on this. That Panthers Lions game is the most bizarre thing I've ever seen. It wasn't that crazy. With all due respect to him. P J Walker from the XFL was starting for the Panthers a quarterback. They don't have Teddy Bridgewater. I don't know what bridgewater status is for this week yet. I do know it's kind of up in the area yet with Christian because he's on my fantasy team and

it's currently killing me. But Minnesota, I think there's a stat out there's something like the last five games they only allowed one rushing touchdown, so regardless of whether or not McCaffrey's on the field. Uh, this Vikings defense is playing much better. But both of these teams are sitting at four wins going into the month of December. One of them for sure is not going to have more

than that as they march into that that month. So this is sort of last call if you want to make a playoff run here, if the Vikings want to show that they're for real. It's so tough to win three, four or five games a role in this league. You're gonna have a let up at some point. Unfortunate for Minnesota it happened against the Cowboys at home. But you can have a chance to get one back against the Panthers or you're gonna be looking really far up now at this NFC North as you march into those last

four games. Yeah, no question about it. Um. Another interesting one in the a f C. We saw the Colts take on the Tennessee Titans on the Thursday night before the Colts then took on the Packers. Well, now the Tennessee Indianapolis rematches here already, these two teams playing each other twice in a span of three weeks. The Colts

get the Titans at home. Both teams are tied with the best record in the a f C South, um so first place in in that division is on the line, and both of these teams coming off of big wins, both overtime wins. As a matter of fact, because the Tennessee Titans beat the Baltimore Ravens in overtime on a Derrick Henry touchdown run. Just curious your thoughts on what we're gonna see here in the a f C South

with these two heavyweights going at it. Well, I understand as difficult as it was for the Packers to lose that game, the real thing you have to understand from the Colts perspective is they're heading into a meat grinder here at the end of this season. Now again they have to face the Tennessee Titans. They were able to turn them back. Can you do it for the second time in three weeks? You get them at home? But after that you're taking out a Las Vegas Raiders team

that has really surprised a lot of people. They still have a game in Pittsburgh coming up, and for whatever reason with how this a f C got scheduled out this year, uh, they face the Texans twice in three weeks as well. So it's a bizarre schedule that they have lined up extremely a f C self heavy. But in terms of Tennessee, yeah, it's a competitive final stretch here. You're gonna have Green Bay. You do have a Cleveland team that's off to a pretty good start playing competitive football.

But you have to show that you're still the team that everybody thought you were when they think everyone sort of pegged them just to be able to turn back the Colts two weeks ago and it didn't happen. So, uh, seeing if they can not only Okay, they ran the ball exceptionally well against some fifty four yards whatever they finished with, but they couldn't throw with a darn Can you get the passing game going? That's ultimately I think it gonna be the biggest indicator whether or not they

can come out with a victory. Yeah. One other one I want to get your thoughts on before we go cross conference game here. Kansas City is at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers coming off of the Monday night loss to the Rams. They're now two games back in the lost column to the Saints in the NFC South. But they have to face the one loss Kansas City Chiefs, who other than that one time this year, they just seem

to pull out a game. Patrick Patrick Mahomes just seems to be uh, seems to be the guy you want with the ball in his hands at the end of any game. Um, this is a big one. This is a big one for Tampa Bay because if they lose it, if they pick up their fifth loss, with the way the New Orleans Saints are playing and they have no more games left against New Orleans, that division is almost over. The division race is gonna be hard. Fortunately for them.

The NFC as as much of a toss up as the a f C is right now for the top nine spots right now in that conference, the NFC is pretty much sorted itself out for the most part. If the Packers would be able to beat the Bears on Sunday, I mean, you basically have your top seven teams here heading into December, and it's pretty well defined. That being said, you need to be able to win your division in order to host a game. So, I mean this is

critical for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers more than any other team I think, and there's been a lot of them just seem like they ebb and flow so drastically week by week. They can have magnificent performances, they can have massive letdowns. Well, now you're taking on not only a team that is considered to be again a front runner for the Super Bowl, but squad that's basically been beaten once and I mean really hasn't been touched otherwise. So, uh,

seeing how they've responded, that's gonna be really interesting. And also from the a f C perspective, whether it's this game you have Pittsburgh gonna be taking on Baltimore again. Pittsburgh is sitting at tennan o the quietest ten and oh, I think I've ever really seen in the NFL. Uh, this is a huge game in a lot of ways for Kansas City as well, to show that there's still very much in this thing and they want to get that one single bye here in the f C plan.

The loan by at the at the top of the playoffs standings and in each conference will certainly be an interesting story as we get into December. But we gotta say it to the Cleveland Browns if they can turn back the one win Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, who are now going to be turning to Mike Glenn as their

starting quarterback. Cleveland assures itself a non losing season. A lot of things happening, and it's looking like looking like the Browns are gonna have a legitimate shot at the playoffs here as long as they as long as they can can take care of business against a team like Jacksonville that I'm sure they believe they should beat. So well, Happy Thanksgiving again, ready, thank you for tuning in everybody.

We will sign off on this edition of Packer's Own Script and be sure to follow all of our coverage of the team and everything from Sunday nights big game, Packers Bears at lambau Field. It'll all be for you on Packers dot com for West. I'm Mike. Take care and Happy Thanksgiving. We'll see you next time.