#563 Packers Unscripted: Big showdown

might find here in the NFL. The NFC North leading Green Bay Packers traveling to face the a f C South co leading Indianapolis Colts, although I guess they would technically be in first place because they have the head to head over Tennessee at the moment, so we can call them a division leader as well. Seven and two verses six and three are the records, and hey, let's get right into it. What is it going to take for the Packers to come out victorious here? What are

the keys to victory? I didn't even realize this, Mike. Tennessee would be out of the playoffs right now if the playoffs started kids six and three record, Yeah, So keep that in mind. For the Indianapolis Colts, there's a lot for them to play for right now in a very top heavy a f C conference right now. As you mentioned in terms of Not only is it a huge matchup. Obviously it got flex the three Central time,

but it's the stakes. And I know a lot of guys in their conference calls and even the coaches they kind of played this down as far as being a measuring stick game. But I thought there was one comment that Frank Reich made in his conference call with Green Bay reporters that really spoke to the you know, the gravity of this thing and how much is on the line, and he said, this is the biggest test to date

for our defense. So much of the focus all week long has been on the Packers offense going up against the top rank defense. But you also got to look at it from the Colts perspective. They're seeing Aaron Rodgers, who they're guaranteed a match up with it once every four years at a critical juncture in their season. Because this is a Colts team that, while they are six and three, hasn't been on like a big five game winning streak. At any point. They've lost, they've won, a couple,

they've lost. So this is their opportunity, coming off a big moral victory in Nashville, to to put down the Titans a little bit, to to potentially try to leap frog and push themselves into the final quarter of the season. Well, it was interesting because a lot of questions suddenly were raised about the Colts when they got beat by the Baltimore Ravens a couple of weeks ago. Now, there's no shame in losing to the Ravens, but the Colts were

kind of sloppy and doing it that. You know, Rivers had an interception I think that got run back, and Jonathan Taylor had a fumble that got run back. It was for for a big game. It was not a good performance for the Indianapolis Colts. So there were all kinds of questions. And then it's like, oh, they're on a short week and they got to play Tennessee on

the road on a Thursday night. What happens, Well, you know, both those teams kind of slug it out for the first half, and then in the second half that Colts defense shut him out. Right, He shut out the Titans in the second half to come away with a huge

row victory in the a f C South. And now they've had their mini buy a little bit of extra rest and whatnot, and now they're back home to face the Packers in a big a f C versus NFC showdown, and you know, the marquee matchup, as I wrote about on our website, is the Packers offense against the Colts defense, and I think it is the biggest test of the

season for both units to this point. From the Packers perspective, I feel like I say this, so I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I feel like I say this anytime the Packers are going up against a really formidable, highly ranked defense. In terms of the key to the game, quite frankly, it's you just you have to play clean football. You have to avoid the penalties and avoid the negative plays, whether they be sacks

or TFLs. The things that are gonna put you behind the sticks, put you in the bad down and distance situations, which is when when and where good defenses thrive on getting after the quarterback, on creating turnovers. You have to

stay out of those situations. Now, from the Packers perspective, they were in third and three a whole bunch last week against Jacksonville and weren't very efficient in in converting those So you have to get yourself into those situations first of all, which is a big challenge against the Colts. But then the Packers also have to get more efficient at moving the chains compared to what they did a week ago. Without a doubt. It's actually kind of interesting.

We were talking with Adam Stenovitch, the Packers offensive line coach, on Wednesday evening, and he mentioned too he thinks one thing that can really help him in those situations moving forward is the fact that the offensive line finally is

as healthy as it's going to be. The line I've kept writing this week is this is the first time in the two thousand twenty season where the projected started five on the dope sheet on Tuesday are actually all together on Sunday as they get some of that cohesiveness.

If you get Alan Lazard back in this lineup, that's where you open things up a little bit more, because you know, let's be honest, whether it is the Aaron Rodgers sneak that everyone has been talking about this week, or a power run or just some of these other things, you have to be able to find those yards. Because early in this season, when the Packers got off to the start they did offensively, what was the one thing

they were doing really consistently converting on third downs. It didn't matter if it was third and two or even third and ten. In some instances, they were having guys step up and keep moving the sticks. That's where they got to get back to. It was the reason why

they fell short. And you saw that eight game streak of you know, being able to score on the opening possession fall against the Jaguars, And to be honest, I think that's probably okay that it finally did that, that you can move past that stat Now you want to score every single drive, but it's not always going to

work out that way for you. But the bigger thing is is avoiding the three and outs, making sure that you can control field position, because when the Packers got off to the start they did this season, that's the

thing that they were really excelling in. Yeah, and if it's always easier said than done, of course, but I think the thing that I'll be watching for in this game is in the first quarter if the Packers can establish some kind of a rhythm offensively, because and that doesn't necessarily mean they have to score two touchdowns in the first quarter and score four teen points, but have some kind of a rhythm offensively, because if you look back to the Tampa Bay game, which was the best

defense the Packers have faced up until now. Even though the Packers and we had talked about this. They scored on their first two drives in that game, got a touchdown in the field goal, had ten points, but there was a lot of off schedule stuff. There was no rhythm to the offense, and so without really establishing any kind of a rhythm anything to hang your hat on early in that game, it just completely fell apart for

Green Bay over over the final three quarters. So you have to watch for this because if if Aaron Rodgers is going to be forced to to improv and go off schedule and everything all day long because there isn't any rhythm developing to the offense, that's going to be a bad You can get away with that against a lesser defense, you're not going to get away with that for four quarters against a really good defense. Because that's

what the Packers found out against the Buccaneer. And and it's funny too, because as much as this will be made out of Aaron Rodgers versus the top ranked defense, my key to victory and we'll talk about this even in more in depth during final thoughts is who wins on the ground. You have a Packers rushing offense that, while it does have Aaron Jones back now Jamal Williams has obviously been a staple this season. They're going up against a unit that doesn't give up big games. You

have to chip away at them. You look at that game for Tennessee. They did give up a hundred fifty seven rushing yards, but there wasn't a carry of more than twenty yards there. It was just Derrick Henry just come,

you know, play after play banging at them. And unfortunately for the Titans, they didn't get the offensive passing production that they needed to be able to compliment that and finish drives Green Bay's perspective though, then you're looking over across the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the ball to a Colts rushing game that still really doesn't have an identity. Marlon Mack goes down with the a c L. At the beginning of last season, there

reigning thousand yard rusher. They drafted Jonathan Taylor, but Jonathan Taylor was the third most used running back in that game against Tennessee. You know they have high and stepping up he's proving that he's more than a third down back. And then obviously, um, what is it Wilson? Is there other guy? He's on my fantasy team. Wilkins, I apologize, is another option there too. But I think when they drafted Jonathan Taylor, everybody expected him to be the face

of this thing. He has the body for it, he has the you know, pass catching abilities. But Green Bay's perspective, you can't allow them to get going with that running game. You have to make this about Philip Rivers. You have to pressure him. So seeing which team prevails in that capacity, I think it's going to go a long way at which team leaves Lucas Oil with a victory. Yeah, and talking about the Packers defense here you mentioned it with

with getting pressure on Philip Rivers and whatnot. You look at the statistics this year. He hasn't been sacked a whole lot. They have a really good offensive line. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly. Philip Rivers is going to take whatever shallow short route is there if you know, once any pressure is coming at him, which is why I think one of the biggest keys, if not the biggest thing for the package defensive tackle.

You can't let these guys, I mean, you can't let them take four and five yard passes and get ten and twelve yard gains out of it because of miss tackles. The Packers have to be on point with their tackling in this game in Lucas Oil Stadium, because you're not going to sack Philip Rivers five or six times. It's just here. It's it's not going to happen. And I do think the Packers run defenses. I talked about it on our last show. They took a step forward in

the second half against Jacksonville. You need to build on that and take that into Indianapolis. But they're going to see they're going to see the swing passes to the flat, the screen passes, the shallow crosses, a lot of the same kind of stuff that that the Packers run offensively as well. The Packers defense needs to tackle well in

this game. And if it's a five yard pass, it can't be more than a five or six yard game or it's gonna end up just being a really, really frustrating day trying to get these guys into into tough third down situation. Yeah, and and that's why you could, you could see the Smith Bros. You could see Rashawn Gary, all have really all of games and maybe it's not reflected on a statuet because of how quickly Philip Rivers

gets the ball up. But you go back to that game against the Chargers last year, where did Green Bay get beaten? It was beaten on yards after catch. It was played that they ended up creating and they weren't able to find an answer for it. So that's why for me, I really look at Kenny Clark the pressure from inside. I retweeted uh Larry mccarren's wonderful Rock Report yesterday looking at that final series against the Jaguars and why they were so successful. It was Kenny Clark sniffing

out the screen on first down. It was him taking on double teams, push that pocket, not allow Philip Rivers that extra time to throw step into his throws. That's gonna be critical. And also linebacker playing this game. I don't know who's gonna be starting an inside linebacker for the Packers. It's just been some sort of this moving target with injuries and in COVID and whatnot. But they are going to throw a lot to their running backs.

It's just the way that this offensive structure, t Y Hilton hasn't been the t Y Hilton that we all remember from a few years ago. It's been a lot of making yards with your backs. They can allow Hines and Taylor and these guys to be able to do that. Yeah. Absolutely, One other thing I want to bring up as a as a potential key to this game because I looked up the stat and I hadn't looked it up until last night, actually, But here's another one. West This game

could be one or lost in the red zone. And I say that for this simple reason. Offensively, the Packers are fourth in the league in red zone offense seventy three point five percent touchdowns. The Indianapolis Colts are twenty five in the league offensively in red zone offense only

fifty five point nine percent touchdowns. Now, without getting into all kinds of math, what I mean is this could come down to Harvard many red zone possessions each each team gets if the Packers, if the Packers win in the red zone on one more possession, that could be the four points seven verses three, The four points that could be the difference in a close game like this Defensively,

neither of these teams has been great in the red zone. Statistically, the Colts are nineteenth the Packers are but offensively there is a big difference in the efficiency in the red zone. I think that could end up playing a big factor in this game, especially if you if you get you know, into these scoring situations in the fourth quarter. Well, and especially if Jack Doyle still isn't able to go with

the concussion that he's been dealing with. He's been obviously one of the most reliable offensive skill position players for a number of years now with the Colts that that's a big one for them. Although Pascal has had some touchdowns, I think Hines actually has four this year too, so, I mean they've been able to find it, but they haven't had that big like standout that has sort of come to the foreground in those situations. That's one area

where Green Bay really has thrived. Davante Adams is just a magnet to the ball, especially in the red area or the gold area I guess as they call it here in Green Bay. Uh. You know, if if again, if Alan Lazart is in this game, that changes everything for the Packers, not only just from the standpoint of having a reliable possession receiver as your number two. Again, but just from the standpoint that he's a run blocker, he can you know, he fits well with some of

the Bunch formations that Matt Lafleur likes to run. All those type of things has helped the Packers out and again is the Packers hope to improve defensively in that area. Offensively, they've been pretty much on par all season with being able to finish drives along with a little bit of aggressiveness too when it gets down to those fourth down situations. All right, one other thing I want to get to with regard to this matchup before we talk about some

other games around the NFL this week. But first serious x M NFL Radio Channel eight is the only radio outlet dedicated to the National Football League seven days a week, three sixty five days a year, and Packers fans gear up four game day, open a Packers checking account from Associated Bank and score a fifty dollar Packers Pro Shop gift card. Learn more at Associated bank dot com. Backslash Packers.

All Right, the other thing we have to talk about with regard to this game West as special teams, this is a Colts team. They are coming off of that third in that Thursday night victory over Tennessee we've been talking about, they blocked a punt for a touchdown. Was a huge moment in that game. Earlier this season, the

Colts ran a kickoff back for a to down. We have a Packer special teams unit that is coming off of a rough game feel position wise, the Packers lost that battle and then obviously they had the big breakdown on the long punt return for a touchdown. Special teams could play a big factor in this game. This is this is one where the Packers. The Packers cannot allow themselves to get beat on special teams the way they were last week, or it's going to be really, really

hard to come out on top. Well, and it's funny too, because you go back and think about the draft process, and I always joke around with you with Alvin Kamara right back and all that. Well, one of the guys that I sort of took a liking to was Isaiah Rodgers, the the U mass receiver who has become their their kickoff return specialist, the guy that was responsible for that that touchdown return. I believe it was a hundred and one yards or it was it was the length of

the field for sure. And again you go back to four years ago, the Packers have bad memories, some of these still in that game at lambou Field the last time I think there was a kickoff return for a touchdown. So it's a it's a huge emphasis this week. You gotta imagine in certainly it's going to be in all facets of the game. The one thing that I think does play into their favor this is actually in a dome.

There's been so many wild, wacky things that have happened at lambeau Field with the wind in the in all these different areas. You go back to that game against the Vikings. That's still the one of the more bizarre games I've ever covered, especially when guys were kicking to that south end zone this particular game. I just think if if J. K. Scott can get back into his rhythm, we've all seen the leg if he can get some

confidence there, that would be huge for him. Mason Crosby continues to get a little healthier after dealing with the calf injuring whatnot if he can at some point retake over the kickoff. Uh, you know, duties. He's obviously been exceptional at that for fifteen years now. So that's where it starts for me. Where the ball is into guys

getting down and converging on it. And as the Packers get healthy in these other areas, Mike, whether it be offense or defense, that gives you more assets, that gives you less fewer practice squad players that are coming up and having to play coverage roles. You need your OAR and berks Is. Unfortunately they lost John Lovett, who had been a really solid special teams player for him to

this point. Will Redmond has been dealing with injuries. So as they get healthier and you get some of those vets back on those units, I just think that that's going to be really critical here for the Packers down the stretch and the phase that is often forgotten. Yeah. Absolutely, Well, it's an interesting week eleven in the NFL. I want to get your thoughts on a few games. First, a couple of a f C games, because we don't always talk about the a f C, but there are a

couple of interesting matchups here. On Sunday, Tennessee is at Baltimore. In Kansas City is at Las Vegas. Now, obviously, as we've talked about Tennessee in Baltimore, but the lad they've played the Colts here in in recent weeks, Tennessee trying to bounce back from that loss. And then with regard to the Chiefs, the Raiders is the only team to

beat the Chiefs this year. But now the Raiders are going into the rematch with pretty much their entire starting defense on the COVID list because of high risk close contact, you know, and all all of those issues. They're hoping that everybody gets clear on Saturday and they can play. I'm not sure how you go out and take the field against Patrick Mahomes when you haven't practiced defensively all week.

I think that becomes a huge challenge. But anyway, your thoughts on those two big games in the a f C here well, and and let's just you know, starting off with with this Kansas City situation. I mean it, it is one of these deals where you know, earlier this season, you know, so much was made out of Tennessee and that they were going to be on a short week and they didn't have enough guys because of the COVID issue and their outbreak or whatnot, and they

end up winning a game. So you never can really count a team out in these circumstances, but certainly Kansas City's the that's the boss at the end of the video game. I mean, you're trying to to be able to, you know, topple one of the best and one of the most you know, versatile and deep teams in the National Football League and doing its shorthand it it's gonna be really difficult. But but again these way that these

situations break down. The race in the a f C is so tight right now, we talked about the NFC and the Packers. Right now at the season ended there the number one seed. No team has really just kind of grabbed it and just with it. Everybody's had their lay ups. And then in the a f C, it's pretty well defined who the top four teams are and they all have you know, six, seven, eight, nine wins to prove it. So seeing how these teams respond to

it's going to be interesting. And then also Baltimore, which is had to do some soul searching itself this season, trying to replicate some of the offensive successes they've had in the past in different ways, and they're they're coming off of a primetime loss to the Patriots, a game that that a lot of people really didn't think they they were going to or should have lost, but but they did. And don't ask me why, but for whatever reason,

it just always seems to work out this way. I'm sure Tennessee in Indianapolis it's going to go right back down to week seventeen again in that couple flex like it has like three in the last four years. It's just the way it keeps working on. Yeah. Well, in the NFC, a couple of really interesting primetime games, beginning with one tonight as we are taping this episode. On Thursday morning, Arizona is at Seattle. Big matchup, should be a really entertaining one. First time they met the sheer

out um out in Arizona. The game went to overtime, really back and forth, exciting game. Probably another one of those, uh those types to expect, especially with Arizona coming off of the big Hail Mary victory over Buffalo. What do you think about this? NFC West showed, Yeah, and Cliff Kingsbury's offense and Kyler Murray against that Seattle defense that's been up and down this season. It is a century link. So the Seattle has that going for them, although it

hasn't been quite as friendly it has been historically. I think it's a great matchup. And also seeing how Russell Wilson responds here. He's encountered some adversity. He's had some turnovers this season, a guy that's typically been pretty uh secure with the football. Uh Like every week at the NFC West is a dog fight. I mean, it just is. I mean it's just the way these things are working out. San Francisco has been beat up. You wonder if they were a little bit healthier, what that four team race

would have looked like. But you know, from the very beginning Arizona, we always talk about DeAndre Hopkins, and certainly he made arguably the best catch, most beautiful catch we've seen in the NFL in years, given the coverage. But they can win with so many different players, and they're running game two is really underrated for everyone always talking about the air raid offense with Kingsbury. They're running game right now with you know, with Drake and what they've

accomplished in that area. It's been impressive and it's going to really stress Seattle here. I expect the high scoring affair. Yeah. And the other big one as far as the NFC playoff picture is concerned, will be Monday night the Los Angeles Rams on the road at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers really interesting team because a couple of weeks ago they get thumped in prime time by the New Orleans Saints. But then they come back last week despite a seven hour flight delay and trying to get from Tampa to

Charlotte to play the Panthers. Then they go out and put forty six points on the board, including I think it was a nineties seven yard touchdown run by Thomas Jones. They put forty six points on the board, and uh, and you know, have a thumping of their own against

a division rival in Carolina. The Rams coming off of a big NFC West win against Seattle, now going on the road to Tampa in prime time and taking what I think is is a really really good defense that isn't being talked about enough, um because everybody always talks about Aaron Donald. But Aaron Donald's got they've got a defense around him as well, and it'll be interesting to

see that defense against Tom Brady on Monday night. Well, and as I just said to Mike I mean, when you talk about Kenny Clark and with Philip Rivers and collapsing a pocket, what's the ultimate way to be able to get Tom Brady off his spot. It's a the most powerful nose tackle in the National Football League. So it's Tampa Bay, especially with how banged up they've been on the interior line, that's gonna be a huge challenge

for them. But also seeing exactly what this Buccaneers team is all about, because as you said, and it's one of the reasons why I keep saying over and over and over again an insider inbox, you can't read too much into one game because one week Tampa Bay looks like a Super Bowl front runner. The next week they take a massive step back. The week after that. Everybody expects them to just play put trid after everything they encountered the day before the game, and they come out

and they put on a show. So it's gonna be a good battle. And then you know the Green Bay Packers perspective, with both of the with this game and also with the one in Seattle, there really is no loser. I mean, as long as those teams continue to beat

up on each other, right, it works. The Green based benefits. Yeah, from the Packers perspective, these four NFC teams were talking about they're all in the NFC playoff picture, and the good news for Green Bay is only two of them can win this, right to you know, two wins and two losses that you'll take that any week when when you're in you know, this mix and trying to sort things out as you get towards December. Yeah, and and

even to throw this game out there too. I know he didn't bring it up right away, but New Orleans is going to be taking on in Atlanta Falcons. Football Time actually did have that one written down, but I glossed over it. Yes, with with the situation with Drew Brees and then and uh and the Falcons looking looking like a different team than than they looked early in the season with all the controversy around their head coach.

Atlanta has settled things down and now they're going to face a division arrival that's going to be without its best player. And you could probably say this for any quarterback, and he stud quarterback in the National Football League. So I I don't want to be too over the top about this, but in all my years, I don't know if I've seen a team that goes as much with its quarterback as the Falcons go with Matt Ryan. When he's on, that offense is on, that defense is on,

everything seems to fit. And when he's not, then things crumble a little bit. Matt Ryan has gotten hot here. I mean he's playing better football, the offense is operating better, and they're gonna go up against the New Orleans Saints team, who we at this point don't know who's going to get the most snaps as the quarterback. I mean, they say it's gonna be Jamis Winston, but are you going to give Taysom Hill the opportunity everybody seems that he's

preordained for. Yeah, a lot of questions. Yeah, definitely a lot of stuff to keep an eye on on Sunday, aside from obviously a big matchup in Indianapolis with the Packers. But with that we'll call it a wrap on this edition of Packers Unscripted. Be sure to follow all of our coverage of the team and all the coverage of the big game Sunday from Indie. It's all on Packers dot com for wes I Am Mike. Thank you for tuning in everybody. We'll see you next time. M