#545 Packers Unscripted: Starting with a showdown

The first game of the Packers season is just a few days away, and I want to start today's show by tossing a phrase out at you because it's a phrase we've heard a few different times through the off season and again this week from Aaron Rodgers that he thinks this Packers team, despite thirteen and three a year ago, one game away from the Super Bowl, he believes this Packers team is flying under the radar a little bit as far as the national pundits are concerned. Do you

think that is the case. Well, it's funny that he feels this way, Mike, because the Packers did win thirteen games last year, they did make the NFC Championship game, and they are flying underneath the radar of the National Football League once again. The thing I love about this analytics era of this um, you know, this proliferation of just you know, analysis everywhere, video guy that and analytics

here talking head. There is that when you need talking points, you typically will grab onto things that you don't understand, and I think there are a lot of things that people couldn't comprehend. If you didn't watch this team every single week last year, why were they as successful as they were? How were they able to overcome some of the typical Well, they weren't a top ten offense or a top ten defense, or they still made plays and

they still found ways to win. If you can't fit all of that into a nice, tight, tiny, concise, understandable bubble, well then everybody just disregards it. And for that reason, I think a lot of people are again counting against this team going into two thousand and twenty, and I think that's unfortunate, Mike, because if you look at the way the Packers are built in a lot of ways, there are a much better team on paper than they were a year ago at this time. Don't get me wrong.

Losing Brian Bulaga, that's a big loss, especially with the questions at right tackle going into Sunday's game. They had to, you know, shed a few parts to gain a few and now you have the running game is more established, you have Aaron Rodgers looking more comfortable. You have Davonte Adams being the type of receiver that I think also is really flying underneath the radar of the NFL. I think it's finally starting to feel some of that that

real appreciation for his game. The Smith's Adrian Ames. The list goes on and on. Mike, the Greenbay Packers are a better team than they were last year at this time, and if they can find the progress that they want from those second and third year players, there's a reason

to believe this team is once again Super Bowl contender. Yeah, it's interesting to me that you brought up analytics because to me, there's To me, there's been a big analytical narrative surrounding this Packers team, and not just the Packers, but I think the Seahawks are another team that falls into this category because those were the two teams last year that won the most close games, the most one score games, you know, eight points are less, and all

the analytics say you can't have that type of record in close games again. And while there is certainly a law of averages to a funny game with a funny shaped ball that can bounce weird ways, I get that, but There's also something to be said in this league for being the better team in the clutch moments when it really matters, and I think that's what the Packers were in twenty nineteen. You look at three of their wins in December Washington, Chicago, Detroit, the Packers were better

than all three of those teams. They did not play very well in either in any of those three games, but in the fourth quarter when it mattered, when they had to find a way to win the game, they did, and they were the better team when it counted, And I think that sort of became the identity of the two thousand nineteen Packers. So I think if you're talking about regression to the means, so to speak, with some of these analytics, the one thing that could certainly catch

up to the Packers is the health issue. Because Green Bay was extremely healthy last year. Did you know, other than losing Davante Adams for four games to the turf toe injury at mid season, there wasn't any other, you know, really high level significant injury that the Packers had to deal with in twenty nineteen, and they took advantage of that certainly. But when you know, and as I said,

The Seahawks are kind of another team now. The Packers and Seahawks bet in the playoffs, and obviously it was a very close game of five point difference came down to the way or so something had to give there. But the Seahawks are another team that a lot of the nash Old pundits are kind of discounting them a little bit because of all the close games they won last year, and I just I don't think that's necessarily

the right reason to to count somebody out. Now. The Seahawks certainly are are in a tough division that NFC West is going to be really really fun and entertaining to watch, certainly, But when it comes to the Packers flying under the radar, I do think they are. I just don't necessarily agree with the reasons that are being put out there for why they are well. And the thing I think would have been really interesting if, as if everyone would have been as hot on the Packers

last August as they were the Cleveland Browns. The pundits, this is another thing they love to do. These these analysts love to do they want They like picking out their attractive dark horse, and they do it to the point that they beat that dark horse to death, and you you end up getting these stories where you know, the Cleveland Browns don't end up being the team everybody expects them to be, and now everybody's disappointed in them. Everybody thinks that they're needs to be this type of

change over. The Browns were still a team that was up and coming, but they weren't by any means, a finished product. I think you're seeing it now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they may have a fantastic season, but they're competing against a really difficult New Orleans Saints team in that same division, and they're having to really rebuild an entire offense now around Tom Brady. There are question marks there, but yet nobody wants to talk about that.

They just want to talk about the fact that Tom Terrific's there. The Buccaneers are fantastic and they're gonna have a phenomenal season. It doesn't work like that. The Green Bay Packers last year were a testament to the people that do all the analysis early on and they do their rankings and they try to figure out who the division champions are gonna be and who's gonna make the playoffs. You can't play that game in the National Football League

because there is so much turnover. All you have to do is look at the playoffs scenarios from the last ten years. There's always gonna be a Packers team. There's always gonna be a Titans team that kind of comes out of relative obscurity relative to where they were the last season and really surprise people enjoy that ride, be able to appreciate that ride, and then realistically, yeah, you want to have all these discussions about where did the stats bear out? You can have them until you're blue

in the face. But the fact of the matter is there's one metric that the NFL uses to determine who gets to go to the playoffs. It's wins. It's division titles. The Packers did that and they won a game in the playoffs and they got to the NFC Championship game. Another they want to try to make that next step. Yeah, another point to throw out there as well, because this is a long season and we're certainly hoping that we're going to have a full long season once again here

in the NFL. Thanksgiving last year, nobody thought the Tennessee Titans would be one of the last four teams standing right go back to at Thanksgiving, did anybody think the Green Bay Packers were gonna be one of the last four teams standing? So even with all this talk through August and early September about where teams are, it comes down to where are you in November and December and heading in January? And we are so far away from

getting to that point. So, yes, it's fun to talk about who's gonna win the divis Asi and who's going to make the playoffs, who were the super Bowl contenders, But quite quite frankly, it's it's a it's a discussion that that you can't even really get serious about until

you get about ten eleven games into this thing. Well, and what I love about Matt Lafore's perspective to Mike is that even if the Packers were getting the proper credit for being a thirteen and three team, for being amongst those final four, he wouldn't want to hear about two thousand nineteen because if you look at many of those same examples of teams that made it to championship games, heck that even made it to Super Bowls, that is not an indicator we're gonna be able to just replicate

that the next season they're onto two thousand and twenty, And for the hope and sake of my own sanity, I hope the onlookers are too. If the Packers perform well on Sunday, it's not because it's a fluke. It's not because it's some statistical anomaly. It's because they were the better football team and so far underneath mapa floor in eighteen games or whatever it is underneath him at this point, more often than not, the Packers have been

the more prepared and better producing football team on the field. Well, that is a big Week one matchup coming up here with the Packers traveling to Minneapolis to take on the Vikings, a big NFC North battle. I want to get to some keys to victory here. But a little sponsor Business West, our first sponsor business on Packers unscripted of gear up four game day folks, open a Packers checking account from Associated Bank and score a fifty dollar Packers Pro Shop

gift card. Learn more at Associated bank dot com. Backslash Packers Okay Week one noon Central time kickoff at us Bank Stadium. It's the Packers and the Vikings. A little bit of news that we found out yesterday. The Vikings and we had talked on our last show about all the changes that are going on with some of their personnel on defense, they will be without pro Bowl pass rusher Daniel Hunter, fourteen and a half sacks each of

the last couple of years. This is the guy who has five and a half career sacks against the Green Bay Packers. He was placed on injury preserve by the Vikings. He's going to be out at least three weeks. Had been dealing with an injury throughout training camp, and the Vikings have just decided he will not be ready to play in the early going here in and with the Packers having obviously their own injury question at right tackle

on on one of the edges. Um, you know, something to watch here to see just what matchup ends up actually taking place on the field Sunday afternoon. You know it's funny too, Mike. It makes a lot, I mean a lot of reasons why them trading for Unique made a lot of a lot of sense for them. But boy, that's another one. Now. The fact that Hunter dealing with what he was dealing with probably shed some light on why they were so proactive and trying to go out

in adding another pass rusher during training camp. It was funny. I don't think Matt Arvin, our wonderful producer, can bring up the video on top of us. But the reaction that Aaron Rodgers had when Bill Hubert, because it literally happened seconds before Rogers spoke to the media on Wednesday.

So Bill, who was the first reporter to to ask a question in the zoom session, used his opportunity to ask Rogers about that, and there is this pause in thousand yard gaze, uh in Aaron Rodgers expression the moment that Bill mentioned that he was going on injured reserve. Not that Rogers is necessarily happy about it, but it's

shocking the people. I think that in Minnesota earlier in the day, they were maybe the day before, they were talking to Hunter about Eric Kendricks and if Eric Kendricks would be playing in this game, and him mentioning, you know, yeah, that's a guy you can't replace. Nobody thought that Danil Hunter was just going to be completely not only you know, you know, questionable for this game, that's fine, but like

just completely out of the equation for the Vikings. It's that stuff that happens when there's no preseason, when there's no eyes on anybody, and you really kind of had this cloak of darkness that I keep talking about throughout the league. He's not in there, So that changes thing. The different secondary, the different cornerbacks for the Vikings change things, and it's going to lead to some more questions than we've grown accustomed to with this Mike Zimmer defense going

into this game. Yeah, I think when we if we look at keys to victory here for the Packers, if you start on the offensive side of the ball, even without Hunter, this is still a heck of a Vikings defense. And there are questions about these young rookie cornerbacks stepping into significant roles and all that, but you're gonna have Unique and Ghakway on one side as a pass rusher. You've still got Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr in the

middle of that defense. And then the back middle, so to speak, is Anthony Harrison Harrison Smith, and you know Harrison Smith will line up anywhere and everywhere I think offensively for the Packers. And this is what we saw, I would say, in the second half of that Week sixteen game last year. The Packers control the line of scrimmage in that game because they were avoiding the negative plays. As Matt Lafleur likes to say, you can't get behind the sticks against a defense like this. You stay in

manageable down and distances. You avoid the penalties, you avoid the sacks, the tackles for loss against the run, you avoid those negative plays. And this Packers offense with Aaron Rodgers can really do its thing. And I think offensively, whether you want to do it trying to pound the ball and play action or do the short passing game test those rookie corners, I'm not sure how the Package

are going to go about it. But if they avoid those negative plays and the penalties that that put them in rough down and distant situations, I like their chances offensively to to have a have a good day. Yeah, when we're gonna talk about Delvin Cook here in the second when we talk about defensive keys to victory. But one thing that was underrated in that first series last year was the fact that when Cook was in that game, it was different. Right. What did the Green Bay Packers

benefit from in those two games? Aaron Jones. Jones came up big. He was dynamic, he was successful. The Packers were able to get their running game going. I think that's gonna be a big key in this game, and honestly, it's gonna be a big key for the season, allowing that running game to set up what they want to do with their past, with their misdirection, with making defensive

coordinators scratch their heads a little bit. We didn't talk a lot about Aaron Jones this camp because a lot of the eyes were on Hey J Dillon's thighs uh and and also, you know Jamal Williams getting so much due credit as well for Aaron Rodgers. But I said this a couple of weeks ago, Mike. It was a very small snippet that I put in an insider inbox. But I thought Aaron Jones had a really quietly successful camp. I thought he looked sharp. I thought he looked decisive.

I thought like the wide zone scheme was starting to fit him a little bit better. And here's the other option too. They wanted to expand the repertoire of these receivers, of these running backs with the receiving aspect of the game. Jamal Williams took that to heart. Aaron Jones already has definitely been taking that to heart. That was an area he emphasized last year going into the season. There were we can talk about the receivers and MVS had a

great offseason, had a great camp. Uh, certainly Davante Adams one of the best in the league at the receiver position. But the Packers have put a lot of horses, a lot of firepower behind their running game, and this would be like the kind of game I think that that could really shine for them. Yeah. Well, shifting to the

defensive side, you already said it, Dalvin Cook. I think he's the whole key to this game and for Vikings offense versus Packers defense, because you look at obviously he wasn't in there in Week sixteen, the game that decided the NFC North last December. You look at the way the Packers end of the season in San Francisco, with all the struggles trying to stop the run. The Vikings have cooked back. You know that, Mike Zimmer, Gary Kubiak, they want to run the ball. They are going to

test that Packers run defense something fierce. I think on Sunday. And I'm not saying you have to hold Dalvin Cook to you know, thirteen carries for forty yards or some like herculean effort. But you can't let Dalvin Cook be the guy who's dictating the pace of every possession for the Minnesota Vikings and therefore dictating the pace of the entire game. The Packers have to contain him in some

form or fashion. And that's not to say it will be easy if it gets turned over to, you know, dealing with Adam Theeland and Kyle Rudolph and will see what Justin Jefferson, the rookie wide receiver provides for Kirk Cousins. But it all starts with Dalvin Cook for the Minnesota Vikings. In my opinion, yeah, and all Mary your your key to victory With what I wanted to say, and it's a it's something I've been really hitting home all week long. To me, it's two aspects to the same question. It's

containing Delvin Cook and insider in box. I said that would be underneath the hundred yards. I think would be a really good day, or at least make him work for those carries cares. Obviously, Madison is a guy too that you need to be cognizant of. They have good running backs. It's not just Cook, but he's going to be the guy that the Vikings are gonna want to shove down Green Bays throat because he had success last year in that week to matchup a hundred fifty yards

or whatever it came to. He was dynamic, and when they didn't have him, when Madison was dealing with his stuff, their running game was different. And why was it when what was the byproduct of that? Kirk Cousins was different. This passing game was different. So my two pronged answer to this is containing Cook but then pressuring Kirk Cousins. So Darius Smith had arguably his best game in that

matchup against the Vikings. I know Mike Smith would disagree with me on that because he really liked those nineteen pressures or whatever uh Smith had against Oakland or the Panthers or whoever that was last season. But that being said, you could see what Sadarius Smith was taking out of those Vikings offensive linemen last year, three and a half sacks. They were demoralized, they were beaten, they were mentally exhausted by the end of that game. And because of that,

Kirk Cousins had a really long afternoon. If you contain cook, if you allow them to not get off the ground with that running game, then the game changes for Kirk Cousins. When he's able to manage it, when he's able to work the sidelines, when he's able to get his guys going underneath off the play action, that's when things get

really difficult against Minnesota's offense. That's where it starts from me. Alright, Well, one other thing before we go here West, Let's just take a quick look around at some other key games to keep an eye on Week one in the NFL. Obviously, as we are taping this, the kickoff opener Thursday night between the Chiefs and the Texans has not taken place yet, but by the time um Sunday rolls around, we will know if the Kansas City Chiefs have started their title

defense with a victory. But it's a big week in the NFC North Minnesota and Green Bay obviously, but Chicago also traveling to Detroit, so all the NFC North teams are playing against each other. I think, you know all the talk in Chicago about who's gonna play quarterback, and they're going with Trubisky right now, and and Folds is the backup and we'll see how long um that actually is the case. But a lot of other really interesting

games in the NFC. I'll throw these out there and let you talk about which ones interest you the most. Seattle is at Atlanta, an interesting cross divisional matchup there, big one in the NFC West, San Francisco hosting Arizona. I think Arizona very tough division obviously in the NFC West, but I think Arizona with Kyler Murray the way Lamar Jackson kind of took the league by storm in year two. You never know, maybe Kyler Murray is that type of guy.

In Dallas is at the Rams, Mike McCarthy's first game as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys on the road out in l A. And then of course New Orleans at Tampa Bay. Big matchup in the NFC South, Drew Brees versus Tom Brady making his debut for the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. There's so many good matchups, Mike. I mean, whoever was putting these schedules together, I mean the week one, they it was power packed with how they approached this.

Somebody even pointed out inside or inbox, I mean this is gonna be an incredible matchup between the Saints and Buccaneers for so many reasons, but also the fact that the two starting quarterbacks are like a combined forty five years or eighty five years old. Excuse me, uh that there's just there's so much experience on that field. I

would it's not the most attractive matchup. But I do want to actually touch on that Cardinals game quick because DeAndre Hopkins goes and gets his extension after they acquired him, Larry Fitzgerald, back Christian Kirk, the way that they have built that offense now not only for Kyler Murray, but then also you know, when you when you look at the way that they're structured and what they're trying to achieve, their uh, they just they can be a really dynamic

team and they still have you know, you look at their defense and Chandler Jones and the pieces are there. I'm not saying it's a complete puzzle yet, but I think the Cardinals are going to give a lot of people in that division problems this year in San Francisco forty Niners. Man, that's a good test for their defense right out of the gate. Again, there's a lot of

compelling matchups. But that's one that secretly, if you're like kind of picking like a quiet one that you're sort of looking at, seeing what kind of litmus test that is for both of those teams out of the gate, is something I might be paying attention to. Yeah, and everybody's gonna be wondering what the forty niners that whole Super Bowl hangover effect. You know, when you're the team that goes to the Super Bowl and you lose, and

certainly it was a really tough loss. They had the lead in the fourth quarter and they let it get away. And we've seen over the years teams that have gone to the Super Bowl and gotten beat. There are a lot of times that team not only doesn't live up to it the next year, but they don't even make the postseason because the other teams in their division take steps forward. San Francisco forty seven years ago. Yeah exactly, I mean that that's you know, so I do think, uh,

there there's some great matchups here. You don't always like to see all these great division games right away because you know you only have six of them and whatnot, but you know what, it sure makes for a makes for a compelling week one here as we get kicked off. Yeah, and you know we were talking about the teams that have been kind of seen his offseason Darling's the Detroit Lions are one of them. So I mean, this is a team at the Chicago Bears that they have some

legitimate questions on both sides of the ball. Defensively obviously a little bit more sure handed there. But if the Lions can come out and make a statement like that week one, I think myself in particular, that'd be a huge wake up call for me. Is you know people have been boarding that hype train in the last few months. Yeah, well,

they're getting their quarterback back, Matthew Stafford. You know when he he left the Lions with an injury last season and then they were not the same, not anything close to the same. And he'd been playing at a pretty darn good high level when he did get hurt. And the Packers just can't quit. Adrian Peterson, he just always finds a way to work his way back onto the schedule, always always going to face him. You know, it's it will be will be ten years from now we'll be

talking about the Packers facing Adrian Peterson again. I was gonna say the year is two thousand and thirty. Adrian Peterson is forty five years old, and he's still you know, picking up some reps for the Chicago Bears and putting up seventy yards. Yeah, who knows. All right, well, it should be a fun week one in the NFL. We are glad it is finally here, and certainly thank you for tuning into our show. We will be back next week for WES. I am Mike. Take care, We will see you next time.