#512 Packers Unscripted: There for the taking

keys to victory. So what's it gonna We have We have analyzed this matchup up one side and down the other. So what is it going to take? What is it going to take for the Packers to emerge victorious and be on their way to Miami for the Super Bowl. So the fact of the matter is the Packers are underdogs heading into this thing. You're not gonna deny it. I'm not going to deny it. The people in the

locker room are not going to deny it. And honestly, I think they've kind of relished that role um and I've appreciated that that mantra that they've taken onto this thing because they are saying that the pressure is going to be on this fort to do what they did the first time, to do it again, show that they can do it again. The Packers only have to work up.

And I look at where that team was, where that roster was, for as good as their record at that point of the season, still was at that you know, going into that that matchup. There are so many areas, specifically on the offensive side of the ball, where they are better. Right now, Davante Adams is where I would like to start. He is back in a groove again. He had a historic performance a week ago. He's healthy, He's looking as good as ever with his route running.

If there was ever an injury, and there's a lot of them, trust me, I get it, it's a difficult game. But if there was ever an injury that really is going to take the bite out of Davante Adams game, it's gonna be that turf toe. I mean so much. You go back and you look at those plays that he had the forty yard touchdown, even the thirty two yard or on you know, to convert on third down.

So much that is just based on instantaneous footwork and his ability to separate and then capitalize in those microscopic gaps and opportunities with Aaron Rodgers when he has when everything is an aligned for him, and when he's healthy, this is, in my opinion, one of the top receivers in the National Football League, and last week he proved it despite all the attention he got, San Francisco is going to do the same exact thing in this game. And to top it all off, he's back home. He's

playing in front of friends and family. I think he said he had already was a ten or eighteen tickets he mentioned at the podium the other day. So being a kid that was from the Bay Area, grew up, was friends with James Jones early on, you can tell how much this game means to him. And on top of all of that, Adams has played in two NFC title games before. I'm expecting a big performance out of him on Sunday. Yeah, I mean, you look at this

from the forty nine perspective. If I think it's going to be the same approach the Seattle Seahawks took the targets. As far as the Packers offense are concerned, are Aaron Jones and Davante Adams? Can you limit can you put the clamps on both of them? And the Seattle Seahawks did a whale of a job against Aaron Jones after the initial twenty three yard run. It was really tough for the Packers to run the football but the but

the Seattle Seahawks didn't have an answer for Davante Adams. Conversely, we talked about how the Minnesota Vikings needed to clamp down on San Francisco's running game and on George Kittle. They were able to limit George Kittle significantly in that divisional game last week, but they could not handle San Francisco's running game. The Packers are going into this, I would think with the same mentality. Those are the things that you focus on. And that's not taking anything away

from Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel. Same thing with regards to the Packers, whether you're talking Jamal Williams or Jimmy Graham or other complimentary parts on offense. But everybody knows the bread and butter of these teams in the running game and in the passing game. For San Francisco, obviously it's multiple running backs. For the Packers, it's Aaron Jones.

It's a matter of can you put some limitations on both of those at the same time without making too many sacrifices and uh, and that's just what we have to see see how it plays out on Sunday. Yeah, we just have to learn. But you know, these past six games, I think you've just seen the snowball for green Man in a positive way that you know, they've been able to rely on different facets of this offense

to win. And last week it was Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers statistically, if if you look at some of the performances had in the postseason, you could put that one up against any of them, because for the first time all season, the running game was not able to really get going and he was able to just sort of carry the load from that point on. Um, whether it was just finding Adams, whether it was extending plays, it just looked a lot like that old Aaron Rodgers and

everybody likes to talk about. And you know, he's a guy too that that understands the opportunity before him and he wants to make the most of it. And San Francisco is going to be difficult, there's no doubt about it. I Mean, they are favored for a reason, like I said, and I think it's going to be capitalizing on mistakes, whether it be a turnover or not, or whether it's just an early three and out for San Francisco. You

need to be able to maximize those possessions. The game, the first one that Levi Stadium, really couldn't have started any worse for Green. Look at the fumble in the field position. It was kind of all downhill from there. If my biggest key to victory for that game was getting off to a fast start. They need to find that fast start this time. They need to protect the football because if you don't get either of those things, it's just really difficult to be a team that's is

disciplined and well rounded as San Francisco. Yeah. I mean, if you want to try to find a path to victory, here in the statistics for the Packers, I'll lay out some options for you, because if you look at the various rankings and offensive and defensive categories and everything across the board for the regular season. For the six team games of the regular season, forty Niners have higher rankings than the Packers in a vast majority of categories. And

that's why they are what they are. They got the number one seed. They they are favored in this game for a reason. But here's a couple of them. West number one turnover margin, the Packers were plus twelve in the regular season. The forty Niners were plus four. So the Packers have been better at taking the ball away and at winning the turnover battle. So that's one thing that could be on your path to victory here. The

other is in the red zone. On offense and defense, the Packers as far as touchdown percentages, the Packers were sixth in the league in red zone offense, eighth in the league in red zone defense, or it might have been vice versa, but anyway, one was six and one was eight. The forty Niners red zone offense red zone

defense twenty one and two in the league. So, as I say, if you're looking for a path to victory, it's win the turnover battle and be the at our team in the red zone on both sides of the ball. And maybe that's maybe that's how the Packers can do this. As good as San Francisco is, and they're great, don't

get me wrong about that. I think Green Bay has more ways to win in the red zone when you look at not only just the run game, and they've been exemplary in that category in terms of being able to punch the ball in once they are in that gold areas they like to call it. But Aaron Rodgers can pass it. I mean, he can scramble with it. We even saw he could sneak it. I mean, there are just so many different ways that I think this offense can function inside that area. And it's not easy. Mike.

Remember there was a lot of years you and I would cover this team and drives with stall inside the twenty the NFC Championship game in two thousand fourteen. Drives stalled inside, those are four points off the board. Those are missed opportunities and things that can come back to haunt you. They have been able to finish drives and defensively keep teams from getting inside their end zone without you know, in the second half of the season now

allowing the explosive play. All those things factor into this and for Green Bay right now, I think it's led them to have this feeling of confidence that you know, if if the chips are down, we're gonna be able to respond to it. Yeah, well, most likely if you're the Packers. If you're going to win this game, you're going to win it the way that you've won a lot of other games. Now that being said, the Packers

of one games in a lot of different ways. But turnovers and red zone play have been a big part of it. And then the other part that I've continued to stress. I think, even going back to September, Marvin could pull out the tapes of the of our shows. It's what the Packers have done in the fourth quarters of games to pull things out. Now, the Fortys have their share of fourth quarter wins this year's as well, down to the wire battles, but the forty and Iers

also have lost more games in the fourth quarter. You you look at the Packers thirteen and three of the three losses, two of them the Packers were out of it. The fourth quarter didn't matter. The two West Coast trips, Okay, yes, one of them was against the forty Inns, the same team they're going to play, but set that aside for a moment. Ers have lost three games this year right at the wire, so they've had what my point is,

they've had more ups and downs at crunch time. The Packers, I think have have been one of the best crunch time teams in all of football. So if you get there and give yourself a shot, that's how you've won. So maybe you can win another one. Yeah. My favorite thing about this week is I think I'm actually starting to lose my voice now. I mean that's what us talking. Yeah, that we've done at this point of the season. I mean, my goodness, I'm sorry we have done something. We have

done some longer shows this week. I actually saw this like two days ago. It was with my son, and like my voice was starting to come out on me when I was actually talking to We might actually get to the periscope on Sunday morning and I might not have anything left to give you, but your points are valid and they're true. And the thing I saw the

most over this time. You can talk about Green Bay and where they need to get better, But since that game I've seen I don't want to call them holes because I still believed and you know this from the very beginning, Mike. I remember Wayne Laervy asking me in September, who I thought, you know, was the best team was gonna be the biggest opponent here for Green Bay? And I've said since the beginning since that first month of the year. I felt like it was San Francisco because

how well they play in all three phases. And it seems like Robbie Gold has kind of figured out some of the kicking issues that was, you know, kind of hurting him early in the season. But San Francisco, I thought, in those games against the Rams, and the game against the Falcons, and and even some of these contests that they've had with the Seattle I I've seen a team

that I believe is beatable. There are ways to do it, but you have to play a full sixty minute game with as many mistakes, you know, a few mistakes as possible.

And Aaron Rodgers talked about that. You you talked about over communicating on defense offensively, Rogers feels like the gut check, the reality check that they got out of that San Francisco game is something that has pushed them to this point that they were able to sort of iron out some things because of things that went wrong in San Francisco that first time, in Santa Clara that first time, So for them being in this matchup at this point in time, and Roger stepped to the podium, the first

thing he said was, we're one of four teams left there twenty eight other teams right now that have started their vacations, started their off season. I really truly believe that there is this why not us mentality in that

locker room. And when you listen to the Smith's talk at the podium and Davante Adams, as I mentioned it from the get go, there are so many players right now in this locker room that have been through all these highs and lows, and they feel like they're reaching their peak, and more so than any other team probably going back to two thousand and ten, I just feel like this is a team that has gotten better every

single week. The score might not have always reflected it, but I think they found answers two things that had been plaguing them previously. Yeah, well, here's here's one question I'm gonna throw at you, and then we will move on and give a few thoughts about the a f SE Championship game. What is one thing that has to happen in this game for the Packers to win? The obvious answer is they need to get a turnover off Jimmy Garoppolo because they play such high percentage and if

you are the only time. I think he does have quite a few turnovers this year, but those can be brought out of him when they have to play from behind, when they have to make a big play. If they want the style of football San Francisco wants to do, they're gonna want to use all the shot clocks, so to speak. They're gonna want to run the football. They're gonna want to You're gonna see every once in a while a direct snap or not a direct snap, but like an end around it, like George Kittle. I mean,

they'll do all of it. They want to play small, they want to put the ball in guy's hands in space, and they want to let them create after that. The more you're forcing them to play down field, to play from behind, that's what gets them out of their comfort zone. A takeaway here or there, and you know, getting ten fourteen points off of that, that's essential. I feel in this game they didn't get it the first time. In the real answer, Mike, the most obvious answer is the

offense can't go over thirteen on third down again. When they have the starters out there, they have to convert. They have to. Matt Lafleur said, he doesn't believe that you're gonna be able to just take what they did last week against Seattle and just throw it right into this game plan and everything works perfect. You're gonna have to feel it out. But you have to be more

successful on third down in order to preserve this. Yeah, And I will say on the defensive side of the ball as far as what needs to happen for the Packers to win this game, as I say, the defense has to limit the explosive plays. And I'm gonna put a number on it. When I say explosive, I'm talking twenty plus yard plays. I say the defense has to limit the explosive plays to four or fewer to win

this game. Because I posted a story on our website last night looking at you know what the Packers defense did, talking about that meeting that they had after the first San Francisco game, And when you look at the numbers, statistically through October and November, the Packers defense was allowing about five explosive plays, five twenty plus yard plays per game on average, and one of those on average was finding the end zone. It was an explosive play touchdown

about one per game over a seven game span. Then you look at the last five games of the regular season, they reduced the number of explosive plays allowed the twenty plus plays to about three per game, and only one over that entire five game stretch to end the regular season found the end zone. Last week against Seattle, the Seahawks had four twenty plus explosives. One of those was

a scrambled by Russell Wilson. So I don't know if you necessarily have to worry about that as much with Jimmy Garoppolo, but none of those twenty plus explosives found the end zone. So to me, it's kind of if you keep those explosives at four lesson if none of those big plays find the end zone. Going back to what I said about the red zone and the way the Packers have defended in the red zone this year, I think that's kind of a statistic that could be

a telltale sign of how this game unfold. Yeah, and as I wrote last to uh, when you look at the secondary, in these cornerbacks that have played together for an entire season, you're seeing the maturation of so many of them. That Gyre Alexander play, I think that was that Minnesota Detroit where you ended up tripped the receiver got past, somebody tripped him up to cause the defensive pastor that was Detroit. If you're much receiver, that was

uh Lacy. I believe Nick Lacey. But be that as it may, that would have been a that would have been six right there, because it's just the past look like it was online. It looked like he had the separation after or started to stumble, what are you gonna do? You're gonna snatch the guy up? You live to play another down and end up being what a fifty six yard Matt Prator field goal. Prador had to hit a

bomb on that one. So there's an understanding there that if you don't give up those seventy five or eight yard touchdowns that sometimes haunted them last season, that you're making yourself. You know, you're making your job a lot easier, making them work harder. And this game, I think is really going to come down to protecting the football, the

explosive plays and just overall offensive efficiency. Packers know what they're dealing with, They know what the crowd is gonna be like, They understand that the forty nine there's there's an insatiable hunger here for this team to get back to a super Bowl after everything, how it ended, you know, six seven years ago, the last time they had that opportunity. Everything's on the line for them, and it's just exciting. And I think you can feel the energy in that

locker room. And now I was just spending time down there yesterday, how loose this team is, how geared up these guys are, because these opportunities, as Davante Adams said at the podium, they're they're rare and you have to appreciate them. And you know, there's gonna be a guy or two. You ask me that original question, what has to happen. The other thing needs to happen is there needs to be an Allen Lazard stepping up. There needs to be, you know, a Tyler Irvin explosive play. There

needs to be a Tyler Lancaster fumble recovery. It's gonna take not just sa Darius Smith and Preston Smith and all the name players that you put up on the billboards and the programs. It's gonna take the joes and the bills on this roster to to be able to finish this thing out. It's gonna be an exciting football game. I can't wait to watch it. Yeah, I mean, I agree with you with ares the vibe in the Packers locker room. There's a looseness to it. I said from

the beginning of the week. I feel like the Packers just have the right perspective on this going into it. As far as what happened in Week twelve, where they are now as a team, I think they're in a good place here going into it, and that's a that's at least a good place to start before we go a f C Championship. Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs. Interestingly, here, the Tennessee Titans have been to one Super Bowl in their history. It was exactly twenty years ago season. That's

crazy that that moment was years ago. But Kevin Dice Ken Dyson right, the Mike Jones I believe was the linebacker for the Rams who made the tackle. The Kansas City Chiefs have not been to a Super Bowl West in fifty years. Super Bowl four when they beat the Minnesota Vikings, and obviously everyone knows they lost in Super Bowl One to the Green Bay Packers. Those are Kansas City's two Super Bowl appearances. Andy Reid trying to get the Kansas City Chiefs back to the Super Bowl for

the first time in half a century. So the Titans have been the road warriors, the six seed. They want at New England, they want at Baltimore. Now they're going to Kansas City. The Chiefs the team that was in this exact position a year ago, hosting the a f C Championship Game and lost a very difficult overtime game to the New England Patriots. So what are your thoughts

on how this one plays out? I I don't know who wins the Super Bowl right now, whether it's Green Bay San Francisco advancing, but this is Kansas City's time, I feel like in the a f C. Yeah, it does feel like that, doesn't it. Tennessee is a great story and and they certainly can win this football game. Yeah you yeah. I personally picked them to beat the Patriots. I did not think that that magic would sustain for Baltimore, just based on how that defense had played this year.

But it did, and they upset them, and here they are with Derrick Henry is the hottest running back right now in the NFL, arguably the hottest player right now in the NFL, the hottest running back. Hottest running back we've seen in an NFL postseason in a while, James Starks. Yeah, but you know, yeah, you know, you know what I'm saying. I mean, somebody that is just getting all the headlines

where everybody is like, can anybody stop? This key is a mack truck, that is, and all he has in front of him is road close signs and crashing through and just would flying everywhere. I mean, that's a great analogy though, because I think I said an inbox earlier this week. When you look at the Titans, they had to win in Week seventeen just to get into the playoffs. They had the smallest opening possible to get into this postseason party, and like Derrick Henry has been the guy

who's just blasted that opening wide open. And here they are as all these other teams are sixty minutes away from the super Bowl. But on the other side of it, uh, Kansas City is confident offense. Defensively, that's a huge challenge. They have to stay up to Derrick Henry, but offensively, I think last week's showed that this team can hang fifty on anybody. Things are clicking with Tyreek Hill there, you know, in him, Travis kill See and all those guys.

He'll mention he doesn't feel like anybody can stop them. This is their year to do this to get there. We'll see what happens, should they. But I just feel like when you talk about Andy Reid, his redemption story, arc coming to Kansas City, the fact that that organization, as you pointed out, has not been to a super Bowl since I was minus eighteen years old. Uh, all those things merged together, Mike, and it just gives you a feeling that there's something special there with Patrick Mahomes.

Whether or not it equates to a super Bowl title this year, we don't know. But that guy, should he stay healthy, is going to be a player for a lot a long long time. Yeah, well, it should be one heck of a Sunday of football as it was last year Championships Sunday was certainly memorable for a lot of reasons. Hopefully we avoid some of the controversy that happened last year. Good luck, good luck with that. Really really banking on that one, Mike, But no, you're right.

I mean you hoped that everything goes cleanly, but it very rarely ever does. Well, it's going to be entertaining regardless, and we will be back here on Monday to discuss the results. So with that, we'll sign off on this edition of Packers Unscripted. Be sure to follow all of our coverage of the Big NFC Championship game on Sunday from Santa Clara. You can subscribe to us, like us on iTunes and other podcast services, and check out all the great video content on the Packers YouTube channel for

wes I am Mike. Thank you for tuning in everybody. We will see you next time.