#378 Packers Unscripted: Handful of keys

keys to victory here. So where do you want to see a Santais? Where do you want to start with this one? Well, I'll start off with the fact that I need to get a lot of Christmas shopping done on Saturday evening down the Miracle Mile. There you go. You gotta check off some things in that regard. It's a good place to do it. A long way to go yet, uh No, But I think the biggest key, and Mike Petton said it flat out when he was at the podium on Thursday night, was whoever wins the

turnover differential is going to win this game. And yeah, you can flash back to some previous episodes of the Friday's keys of victory, and a lot of times it is the takeaways. But when you look at how prestigious so far this season the Bears have been at taking

away the football, proficient I think was the word. I was trying to go for prodigious, prodigious works too, all those works other than what I actually said, But no, I mean just how efficient they've been and being able to take away the football and then in some regard for the most part, protected win that battle. That's what's

allowed them to be nine and four. So if the Packers are going to be able to stand up to that, if they're going to be able to challenge the Bears to to pull off what I think people are considered to be an upset, even though they do have eight consecutive wins at Soldier Field. You need to be able to win that. So Mike Petton and his dfense they understand that. And Jaire Alexander was asked about this in

the locker room. Like you know, is so much being made about the Packers offense against the Bears defense, But there's a Packers defense too that's very hungry to take the football away and kind of build on some of

that momentum that they started against the Falcons. Well, and it's funny because when you look back at the recent history here of the Packers and Bears, I'm talking the last decade or so, every game, and there have been plenty of highly competitive games, but you can almost point to a turnover play or turnover like play as a turning point in the game. I mean, I'm thinking obviously

the NFC Championship. B J Rodgie gets the pick six, Aaron Rodgers makes the tackle on Brian Urlacker when he throws the interception in Urlacher looks like he might be going ninety plus yards for a touchdown. Two thousand thirteen, remember the ball came out and everybody stood there looking at it, and Jared Boykin picked it up and ran it in for a touchdown for the Packers. Um the opener this year, Kyle Boller has uh the ball an interception basically hit him right in the chest. He doesn't

hold onto it. The Packers drive for the winning touchdown with Randall Cobbs. So this game, it's gonna have one of those type of plays you just know what, you sense it, you feel it, you hope it goes the Packers way. Yeah, that's why I put on, you know, one of my inbox efforts this week, expect the unexpected, because something always happens, and it isn't necessarily leaving those game changing plays. It's Clay Matthews being an inside linebacker

and that being a turning point in the Packers season. Uh, It's it's being able to utilize some of these weapons in different ways. I think that's what I'm most interested to see, and we saw small parts of it against the Falcons. The fact that they ran back to back screenplays with Aaron Jones that you know that they were willing to do some of the things they did offensively to build some momentum early on and let those offensive

linemen get settled. You have to be unpredictable, without question. But I do think there's a lot of those things that they learned in that matchup against Atlanta that can carry over into this game against Chicago and what they like to do in the trenches and and you know, they do not pressure. They obviously pressure, but they do not blitz a lot. Dick Fangio has confidence with Khalil mac being in that defense that they're going to be

able to get home with four guys. That allows the secondary to to make plays, to be able to not sacrifice another one of those bodies. That is, if you go back to those San Francisco teams, Mike that were really good in the early two thousand tens, That's what Vic Fangio's group did exceedingly well, and they had tremendous linebacking helped to do it. And now you can kind of start seeing the Bears building that with ro Kwan Smith and with having a veteran there like Danny Trevathan.

So yeah, I think this game really ultimately is going to be one in the trenches, both on the Packers side of things and also you know, with the Bears being able to you know, hold your spot. Yeah, I think the the key other than obviously just blocking guys and having that communication and everything it takes up front to protect Aaron Rodgers, I think the other factor that is going to protect Aaron Rodgers if the Packers can establish some kind of a running game with Aaron Jones,

with Jamal Williams. I know, the Bears are number two in the league against the run. They're ranked in the single digits and lots of categories defensively this season. But when when I look at what I saw of the Rams against the Bears last Sunday night, and the fact that that game was close. Chicago's offense was not lighting anything on fire, but the Rams they never got Todd Gurley going, and in my opinion, they just they didn't stick with him long enough. They put the game in

Jared Goff's hands. He ends up throwing four interceptions and and the turnovers were far and away the difference in that game. I think the Packers are gonna have to find a way to run the ball. They're gonna have to be stubborn about it. That's gonna be the best way to protect your quarterback and in the long run, to protect the football from this turnover crazy defense. Yeah, and all year long, Mike, we talked about Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones, how they work in tandem with one another.

I think this game is really going to be important for both of those players. I think early on you could I think it wouldn't surprise me at all if you see Mama Williams get some play early on, help out those offensive lineman. If you're looking to establish the quick passing game, we know what he can do both as past protection and also along with catching the ball.

I absolutely loved and I know there's probably some fantasy football owners out there that had some heart attacks in the first half with Aaron Jones and how he was utilized. But I just love what they did with him in that game because when it was Aaron Jones time they featured him, I think it was twenty touches on forty

two offensive snaps coming out a halftime. They really were able to change the pace with being able to get him involved, get him an open space, allow him to make plays, and yet still being able to get the best out of Jamal Williams. Jamal Williams is gonna have to do a lot of chipping in this game, you know. And the question was asked Brian Angeliqio, the Packers tight ends coach, about how much his guys are gonna be

involved in the blocking. They very well could be, you know, mar cites Lewis is a great UH player to have in your in your toolbox. But at the same time, I think this is where Jamal Williams is going to really be important. Being able to pick up the free blitzers, being able to you know, establish himself there to allow Aaron Rodgers to get comfortable. If Aaron Rodgers gets comfortable, if he has over a hundred passer rating in this game,

I think the Packers win it. Honestly, I truly do, because when you look at it from Mitchell Trubisky side of things, every time there's been a few examples of it, but most times when they've had to get into a shootout type situation, that's where the Bears have been vulnerable. Well, you mentioned you looked up the stat on a show earlier this week that the Bears defense is allowing an average of opposer passer rating in the low seventy four. So I mean, if Aaron Rodgers can actually hit triple

digits in in passer rating, I'm with you. I like the Packers chances here. And um, I'll just say I think the fantasy owners have to get off this whole Aaron Jones thing. The guy's had a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games. He's getting the job done for you if if he's if he's on your fantasy team. And I just point that out because I posted a story on our website last night the Packers record all time record for consecutive games with the rushing touchdown in seven

Paul Horning nineteen sixty. Aaron Jones is at five games right now. He has six rushing touchdowns in those five games. The last guy to have a streak of six was Ryan Grant back in two thousand and seven. So Aaron Jones is on a nice little run here. And but that being said, the Bears have only allowed four rushing touchdowns all season. They had only allowed two up until Thanksgiving and Lea Garrett Blunt for the Lions had to

but then the Lions still lost that game. So, um, a lot of a lot of different things here that that need to go right for the Packers. And and another point I want to make, and I mentioned this on our Final Thoughts video which we shot just before we sat down here to turn on the cameras, I don't think the Packers can afford even though they came back from twenty to nothing in Week one against this Bears defense, I don't think you can go to that well again. I think you've got to get off to

a strong start. I think you need to play with the lead. When I look at when I look at this Bears defense. They're not going to give up another twenty point lead to the Green Bay Packers. I don't see that happening twice in one season. And the flip side of it is, we've had our skepticism, if if you will, with regards to Mitch Dubinsky and this offense, I don't think this Bears offense is necessarily built to come from behind. Now. The Packers have had their struggles

on the road. They had a lead in the second half at Los Angeles, but that was the Rams. They had a lead in the second half at Seattle, well,

that was the Seahawks and Russell Wilson. If you can have a lead in the second half here a soldier field and really put the game in Mr. Rubinsky's hands the way the Packers are covering on the back end, even without Kevin, even with Kevin king On injured reserve and and not able to play, I like Green based chances here, but you've got to have a lead because I don't like being on the road and trying to come from behind against a defense like this, well, and

against the defense like this that's already had that hand played against them. And in mind you it was at lambeau Field, but they are very theme, Mike. I think it was James Camping who mentioned I think Sam Acco is the only one that isn't actually in this lineup right now that's out with injury. And then now obviously Bryce Callahan too, you can add him to that. But for the most part, all those guys that were on

the field and they're still there. So yeah, they it's the you know, fool me once kind of deal here. So I think for the Packers, if you're able to come out early, get that just like they did against the Falcons, you know, put some points on the board with that first series, get a touchdown early on in

you know, show that you're gonna hold your ground. I think one of the things, and I don't have all the stats in front of me, Mike, but if you look at this eight game winning streak the Packers have been on in Chicago a lot of times, it has been a product of getting off two super fast starts that when I think they had I want to say it was two thousand sixteen, We're yeah, Kristin Michael had the forty two yard touchdown run one of the reasons the Packers won that game, and We're able to hold

off the Bears was because of how fast they started and being able to you know, get points early on and then kind of stem the tide. Yeah, the Packers were up I believe seventeen in that game. The Bears had a big rally and got it tied, but then Rogers had the ball last hit the big play and got the win. And that's what you expect. Though, when the team's playing at home, much like the Packers did when they rallied in Week one, they're gonna have the wind in their sales. They're going to be able to

mount a comeback. So that's why you want to have everything tilting your way in those first thirty minutes. The Packers, though, the thing that's been really interesting is that if they do find themselves in that situation. Again, I'm not saying necessarily four point comeback, but the one thing that this season has taught them at seven five, seven and one is the ability to play down the stretch and the ability to have the two minute offense go. It's been

the most consistent phase of this team. So if you're able to stay within earshot, if you were able to get up by a touchdown, the Packers have shown an ability to win these close games in spite of some of the things that have happened recently on the road.

Their conditioned for it. So I think that's the number one thing I'm looking for in this matchup, particularly with Aaron Rodgers appearing to be in more of a rhythm last week, is if you can carry some of that over now against the Bears and maybe get off to the fast start that you finished with in Week one. Yeah. Well, the bottom line is the Packers need to put together that four quarter game on the road, which hasn't happened so far. You look, you look back at every road game.

Washington bad first half, Detroit bad first half, you know, Minnesota bad second half, Seattle bad second half. Really, the Rams game was just the unfortunate turnover with two minutes to go, or the Packers are in the exact position they wanted to be in with Aaron Rodgers with the ball in his hands, two minutes left and a chance to win. So these, uh, these road games, it comes down. It comes down to having to play a full sixty minutes.

The Packers haven't done it yet, but we know that they're capable of it, and we all know the whole outlook on this season, hinges on this game. I mean, you win it, you stay alive, you have a chance. If you lose it, you're done. Yeah, and it's great.

It's you're right. It's as simple as that. The one thing I think the Packers have to feel pret be good about going into this game, though, is you can look at it, Mike, pound for pound, this might have been their best performance of the year against the Falcons because you look at that game against Buffalo. Yes, they shut out the Bills. We know what Aaron Rodgers said afterwards, how he felt about you know, where things were at

and where they still needed to improve. Offensively, they weren't perfect. Rogers only through for d ninety six yards. It's not like they just lit up the Falcons and you know, dominated from the word go. But they were able to really dictate the tempo of that game. The Falcons scored late, but it didn't really matter second half. So I mean, if I'm Green Bay, if I'm Joe Philban and I'm sitting down with these guys this week, I'm reminding them

not to get complacent, but also understand. And I wrote about it earlier this week and inside her inbox too. This is what you're capable of. This is the team we built and what we feel like can be in control of its own destiny. Now, a lot of things now need to go right for them. But I think when you go back to week one of the Packers being Super Bowl contenders, you thought about Davante at Is having a breakout season. You thought about Aaron Jones and what he can do with the run game. You know,

jyr Alexander being a promising first round draft pick. Aaron Rodgers said it as a locker room this week, Mike. There are so many pieces in place that he feels confident about the future of this team. But it's also the reason why they feel like going up against a team against like Chicago, they should have a chance to win. All right, one other question before we move on to some of those other things that need to go Green Bay's way. Randall Cobb. Does he make a big play

in this game? I think so. And the one reason why, certainly out of all these performances he's had and get Soldier Field, and he has had some tremendous ones, including two thousand thirteen, his biggest game of the season was that opener against the Bears. That was the most careery Artidge I think he's ever had in a contest. He looked like everything that Randall Cobb has ever been for this offense, and being able to create after the catch

and just having that explosiveness to his game. Now he's had to weather some of these hamstring injuries, but the fact that he was a full participant for the first time since he's been dealing with this on Thursday, I think speaks to potentially what he could bring to this

ball game, especially without Bryce Callahan being available. I don't know exactly how the Bears are going to shuffle the cards there and what Vic Fianjo is gonna want to do, but Callahan had been a big consistent role is that nickel cornerback, So you know, whether it's McManus or one of these other guys that step into that. I'm really looking for Randall Cob in this game to have a big,

big performance. I'm not saying he needs to have two receiving yards again, but if he can be effective and draw that attention, that's when everything starts to open up for air, and he could be a key piece on third down as the Packers try to try to build on a seven out of thirteen third down performance against the Falcons, which was something that had been a long time coming. Okay, we we haven't dwelt dwelt dwell like hey,

I said privilegious or something earlier, So you're good. We haven't spent a lot of time on all these other things that need to go green Bay's way and that already have gone green Bay's way to to stay alive even to this point. But to recap it quickly, how do you get this all out? I have so Packers, all right, the Packers need to beat the Bears. We know that you're looking for Washington, Philadelphia, and Carolina each

to lose one more game. Now Washington has quarterback injuries like crazy, Philadelphia now dealing with a quarterback injury, and Carolina has to play the Saints twice in the last three weeks. So each of those teams losing one more game looks pretty realistic for the Packers. The other thing, if the Packers beat the Bears and win out and can get to eight seven and one, you need the Minnesota Vikings to lose twice and their first one now out of these last three weeks is at home against Miami.

But the Vikings they fired their offensive coordinator. They're coming off of some really rough offensive outings. The Miami Dolphins are coming in at seven and six with their playoff hopes in the a f C very much alive, having just beaten the New England Patriots with the miracle final play double lateral whatever you wanna call it with Kenyan Drake.

So what are your thoughts on this, my Ami? With wild card hopes alive going into Minnesota, Minnesota making the change at offensive coordinator here in the middle of December, what do you think? You know, It's an interesting stat I saw from the Dolphins PR team this week when Ryan Tannellhill has played. Do you know what the Dolphins record is the last sixteen games? If you over like, if you simulated a season sixteen games Ryan Tannehill, they're

twelve and four. Kid. Yeah. Now they've had to weather a lot here, you know, with last year in the j Cutler experience, and in this year losing Tannehill again to that shoulder injury that held him out of the game against Green Bay. But the thing about Tannehill is it just seems like every time somebody's trying to count him out or move on to the next chapter. He always reminds everybody why he was their quarterback of the future in two thousand and twelve, even though now he's

still third. You know, now he's thirty years old, he's in the prime of his career. So I think it's definitely doable. The biggest thing on this schedule, and this is why I think if Joe Philbins talking to his team about any possible playoff in patitions is that you just got to win this game against the Bears. You win this game against the Bears, and everything opens up because even if the Vikings do hold off Minnesota or they do hold off Miami, they have to come back

at the end of the season and beat Chicago. So I mean, this is for me, for for my money, seeing exactly how this plays out. I'm i am glued to my seat because I think it is fully possible there's an eight win team that makes the playoffs. The Green They Packers just hope that they're the one. Yeah, it could be the Packers. It it certainly could be.

My point being, if you're going to scoreboard watch at all, you don't it's not necessarily that you have to watch them all, but if you're going to scoreboard, watch the one to watch is what's going on in Minneapolis, because that's the one that really, as far as this week goes, has the biggest effect on the Packers. I believe, not that we want to think this way, but I believe the only way the Packers mathematically stay alive if they were to lose to the Bears is that Minnesota also

has to lose. Otherwise otherwise the season and is over as far as any postseason. Yeah, in Minnesota at six six and one right now, um, they do have the tiebreaker with you know, with them both tying earlier this season, So something to keep in mind. You know, it's gonna be an interesting week though, because again you you talked about the Panthers having the Saints, the Eagles have the Rams. Uh So I mean in the Rams, you know, obviously coming off a tough loss, but I mean there's still

the Rams. And and you know, even though Jacksonville's four and nine, Washington's onto Josh Johnson is their fourth quarterback. So the way that this is pretty amazing what's going on, and it's been pretty incredible. So Packers just hoping to keep it interesting for one more week. Yeah, that's a that's a good way to look at it. With that, we will call it a wrap on this edition of

Packers Unscripted. Be sure to follow all of our coverage of the team on Packers dot com on Twitter, He's at west Hot I'm at Mike Spofford at Packers for the team account. Thanks for tuning in, everybody, See you next time.