#273 Packers Unscripted: Picks, more picks

two fifth rounders, and a sixth rounder. Did so, all right, So those four draft picks being added to what the Packers already had. Um, and we'll get into a bit of a discussion here about how those are determined. I think you know more about this than I do, because I still get confused by this whole process. But anyway, UM, new general manager Brian Goodacuns got quite a haul of picks here for his first draft as general manager. He does.

I mean those four compensed story picks is as we talked about before, that now puts the Packers since they started the process second all time to the Baltimore Ravens. I think they're like five or six behind them. This has been a tried and true method. When you have a draft and developed team, you do most of your work through the draft, and you're gonna see some of those guys leave on second and third contracts. This is

the benefit to it. So for the Green Bay Packers, the fourth round of the two fifths, the six that is going to give them twelve in this upcoming draft when you factor in the competed story pick I shouldn't say competed story, but the corresponding pick that they're gonna be receiving for Laurenti McCrae in that trade back in

two thousand sixteen from the with the Buffalo Bills. So with those picks, they're even more leverage now, Mike than they used to be because back in the day, all of two years ago, you couldn't trade those competed story picks and to use them. So now that gives good Counts a little bit more am initition to if he wants to move up in the middle rounds or whatever he wants to do. Um has that in his back

pocket as well. Yeah, and just you know, for history's sake, it's worth pointing out some of the players that the Packers have acquired with compensatory draft picks in the past. Josh Sitton certainly comes to mind. Um, Mike Daniels. Mike Daniels is probably the biggest one, probably the biggest one of of of the bunch. There are others as well. As you said, this is uh, this is sort of a tried and true method for a draft and developed team.

Because yes, the compensatory picks are slotted from the end of the third round to the end of the seventh round, so you're not talking about, you know, a top fifty draft pick here. But it gives a general manager more picks, more swings at the plate, more ammunition to either move around or to compile selections, because as we all know, there are draft picks that don't work out. Nobody bats

a thousand in the draft. But the more picks you're able to acquire, the greater chance you have of of say a seventh rounder, turning out to be Donald Driver and becoming your all time leading receiver exactly. I thought Ron Wolf is the one that has the ultimate line in terms of how you approach the draft. It is going to the plate. It is baseball you're swinging. You want as many swings as you can because naturally you're gonna miss on some. It's just the way the game

is played. And the teams that go through a draft and don't miss tend to be the ones that end up competing for Super Bowl championships within a year or two afterwards. The Green Bay Packers a good example that in two thousand nine. You also look at, you know, the Seattle Seahawks and what they did in two thousand eleven. Competed story, picks are part of the process, Mike, and you mentioned you know, obviously Mike Daniels, Josh Sitton, but even the Blake Martinez is and you know Dean Lowry's

of the world as well. Those and those were like back to back fourth round compensatory picks just a couple of years ago. Yeah, And so I mean, those are the picks the Packers got when they lost Divon House and also Trumon Williams to free agency. In the story I always tell is they ended up getting back the same exact pick for Devon House as what they used on him in two thousand eleven. Through that process. That

was kind of crazy. It worked out how that works out, and for the Packers perspective, you look at it, they lost Jared Cook, Micah Hyde, Eddie Lacey, T J. Lang, Julius Peppers, j C. Tredder in unrestricted free agency, guys who all had their contracts expire signed elsewhere. They only signed one outside unrestricted free agent, Jerry Evans that counted towards the formula. Since Martella's Bennett was released before week A week ten, I believe he doesn't actually count towards that.

So this is probably the greatest mystery, kind of almost like the baseball arbitration in Major League Baseball. I don't ever really understood that process either, but where they take into account the contract, they take into account the playing time, and they take into account, you know, any accomplishments the

player had. Nine times out of nine, it really seems like it is ultimately the contract that Besides this, and as we'll probably talk about a little bit more in the second segment, the fact that you really had some of these other teams that had guys at average contracts above ten million dollars a year is the reason why the Packers ended up not getting a third rounder, which historically has been I mean that that's probably is important as a compensatory pick gets because you're still picking in

those first two days. So you've seen the draft formula chart and how important those middle round picks can be and how valuable they can be. Uh, this, as you said early on my for Brian goodacu instant opportunity. Now for him to go into this draft with that much ammunition is going to really behoove him in the in

the long run. Yeah, I mean, I look at this as you know, when you get say an extra fourth round pick here like the Packers have, you know, you mentioned get Martinez and Lowry being back to back compensatory picks in the fourth round. When you have multiple picks in the middle rounds like that, that's where you know you and you might use your regular fourth round pick on David baktr and you get a hit right there.

But but the flip side of it is you might use your regular fourth round pick on a guy who doesn't work out, but then that later fourth round pick in the in the compensatory selections becomes the guy that does work out. You probably had both of those guys rated about the same, but because you had the two picks within a span of fifteen or twenty there. Within the fourth round, you've got a great chance to hit on. The perfect example this is probably the two thousand twelve

draft with Mike Daniels. If you go back to that year, Mike, the player that everybody thought was gonna be the real difference maker as far as the defensive line concern was drill Worthy. In no disrespect to drill Worthy, it just didn't work out for him in Green Bay as a second round pick, but the Packers did have that opportunity to go back. They did have that extra pick in the fourth round. Mike Daniels comes in a lot less heralded.

I mean, a guy that was a game day scratch I think in the week two of the season, just didn't have that opportunity coming in with an injury as well, shoulder surgery and everything at the end of his college career, catches fire at the end of the season as six and a half SAX and next season and then he's on his way from there. It's one small part of the puzzle, but it's one that you definitely can't overlook

as well. Yeah, well, we need to talk a little bit more about this whole formula and how they figured this out. We'll get to that after the breakback with more on Packers Unscripted. Right after this, Welcome back to Packers Unscripted. Mike Spofford in this chair. Wes Hodkowits in that one. Okay, Wes this whole compensatory pick formula and how the league figures this stuff out. A lot of

projections out there. You can find websites that are, you know, going to try to predict um who's going to get what compensatory picks and what round. The general consensus seemed to be that the Packers were going to get a third round pick because of t J. Lang, who had signed a contract for around nine million a year and end up making a Pro Bowl and all that. But

the Packers didn't get a third round pick. There are only four teams that were awarded a compensatory at the end of the third round, and then the Packers got the first compensatory at the top of the fourth round, which tells you I would think, if I'm understanding this correctly, that they were really really close to having that fourth round compens story pick actually be thirty two slots higher and possibly be at the end of the third round instead,

it didn't work out that way. Explain maybe how you think this fell and why it fell the way it did. Well, here's the part of the thing that I'm not going to be able to explain, because the NFL Management Council is ultimately the one that decides on these matters. Factoring in what we talked about in the last segment, salary average per year, you know how much the player played, and then also any accolades that player may have had.

If this would have been two thousand seventeen, the Green Bay Packers would have been well in the clear to get a third round pick for t J. Lang Eleven compensed story picks in the third round last year. I'm not it is not privy to me. I don't understand how they decide the line of demarcation there in terms of where they break. They award thirty two. They award thirty two compensed story picks, but they can be spread out anywhere from the end of the third through the

end of the second. So this year it's only four in the third round I think, or five whatever it ended up being last year eleven, so the Packers would have comfortably been in that situation. I think would have end up having the hundred and first overall pick. It's not the way it worked out though, So for the Packers perspective, now they take into account you can only have a max of four compensatory picks. Packers lost seven guys that can conceivably count towards the formula, but you

can't get more than four. So how yes, exactly, um, so, however you want to figure that out, I'm not really sure where they you know, how they determine what the value is or how much in Eddie Lacy, you know, contract pushes up a particular round, whatever the case may be. The one thing that probably does hurt for the Packers is that if that sixth rounder could have became a fifth rounder, because again they'll be the first team picking

from the compensatory process in the sixth round. If that's becomes a fifth rounder, it would be hard to imagine the Packers picking three guys within you know, a couple of picks of each other in the fifth round. But now that you can leverage that in a trade, that could potentially be bait to move up. And we know the difference and value of all those picks per round.

So uh, I don't want to say obviously the Packers you know, ended up on the short end of the stick here, but to some extent, it does feel like that, considering the strength and how productive that that class of

free agents was, that they lost. Yeah, and as you said, the compensatory pick in the sixth round was the first one that was awarded for the end of the sixth rounds, so that one was also very close to to to jumping up thirty two spots, um, you know, and uh, and the Packers would would have a shot earlier at

another player. But it seems like when you just look at the numbers, and you and I were only looking at him briefly, but it would seem like where the NFL drew the line this year for the third rounders, for those top compensatory picks, it was guys that signed contracts that average ten million a year more and then t J. Lange was just below that ten million a year mark. And even though he made the Pro Bowl and whatnot, um, he his essentially compensation ended up being

the top pick of the of the fourth round. It is strange though to me that you'd have eleven third round compensatories one year and then only four in the third round the following year. It just I've said this in our Insider Inbox column. I've kind of given up trying to guess it and trying to figure out I just kind of sit back and wait and see what the Packers get. At the end of the day, the

Packers got four picks. They have twelve overall in the draft, the seven plus the Laurenti McCray seventh rounder from a couple of years ago, and then the four compensatories. Twelve picks. That's a lot to work with. Let the records show. I don't think I've ever been right in terms of projecting this, and there are some websites I think Football Outsiders is one of them that do a really good

job of it. But again they're also basing because that's one of the one of the big projectors this year that thought the Packers were going to get a third rounder for TJ. Lang, Taking too account how many third rounders were divvied out a year ago, I think the closest I'd probably have been is guessing fourth rounders for Truman Williams in Devon House. But there were other years where I thought the Packers were gonna get much more. You look at Casey Hayward end up having a Pro

Bowl season. His contract though, didn't really allow that to jump past a fifth rounder. Um. So it's things like that that you have to take into account. As I said, it is kind of a mystery in terms of how they go about figuring these things out. What we do know though, at this point in time, the Packers with those four picks will have a lot of leverage for

Brian Goodikut's in this upcoming draft. And I want to talk a little bit more about just where the Packers are positioned and how how the new GM might be able to use that. We'll talk about that after the breakback with more and Packers Unscripted right after this, Welcome back to Packers Unscripted. Mike Spofford. Here, West, Hodko, It's over there, okay, West. So the Packers have twelve picks

in this upcoming draft. A lot of focus obviously will be on the first round pick because the Packers are picking four in the first round that they have not had a pick this high in the first round since two thousand nine, when b J Rodgi was drafted with the number nine overall pick. This is a very interesting position for a brand new general manager to be in. The Packers have not been in this in this position for a long time, to get a player in the

top half of the first round. Just your thoughts on kind of how where the Packers are situated here and how this might play out. So many parallels, Mike, between two thousand eight going into two thousand nine and now the Packers going into two thousand eighteen, you were obviously covering the team back then. The Packers coming off a disappointing year defensively, Mike McCarthy overhauls the defensive coaching staff and it begins with Dom Kaper's coming in and installing

the three four defense. Ted Thompson right on board with everything gets Mike McCarthy gets Don Kapers the nose tackle they needed at the ninth overall pick end up setting up one of the better run defensive stretches the Packers have had in recent memory with him, Ryan Pickett and the other players there, and then also Ted Thompson the only time he did it, trading back into the first

round to take Clay Matthews. The Packers get their pass rusher, a defensive player of the Year, candidate right off the bad for Green Bay obviously now becomes a six time Pro Bowl linebacker. There are a lot of parallels now with Mike Petton coming in here. Now, we'll have to see which direction they go with this pick. Packers haven't taken an offensive player in some time. Could this be

a year to do it. We'll have to see. But to be picking four overall, and I thought Cliff Crystal on our website did a wonderful job of really explaining the challenges that Ted Thompson had. When you really go back and look at it. When you're picking outside of the top fifteen, and I believe it was eleven of thirteen drafts, that's difficult to do the bulls eye. You're you're stepping farther and farther back, so trying to hit

that becomes significantly more difficult. Brian Goodaquins set it right from the day that he stepped up as in his introductory press conference as the new GM, this is an opportunity and unfortunate opportunity, but it is an opportunity to re energize the team and find some more prospects higher in the draft rather than having to project out you know, further down the line. Yeah, and you and I had talked about this last year on a couple of our

road trips going to cover the team. When you looked at last year's Green Bay Packers defense and all the all of the players who were involved, the highest draft pick the Packers had on the field on defense at any time last year was the twenty feet overall pick, and that was ha Ha Clinton Dicks from two thousand

and fourteen. Obviously, going back a couple of years, Julius Peppers, you know, had been a very high draft pick when he was selected, and uh, you go back a couple more years and b J. Rogie was obviously on the team this last year. You look, you look at when when the highest guy picked out of anybody who's playing defense for you is at twenty one overall, that's going to catch up with you at some point. That's just the way this league is. The league is. The league

is built for parody. It's built for the the inverse draft order, as as we talked about. So this is a this is a huge opportunity for the Packers. Now that being said, doesn't mean they're going to pick defense at at number fourteen overall. Certainly, no, no guarantee in that regard, but um, but it's going to make you know, go everything going on with the combine and everything leading up to the draft, there isn't there isn't going to be quite as much uncertainty necessarily about who's going to

be there. There's still going to be some when you're at fourteen, but as opposed to being at twenty five or twenty eight or something like that, where you just have no idea who might be on the board at that point, being at fourteen, the packers will have a little bit better idea of who they might have to choose from at that spot. Assuming that that Goodkins decides to stay there, Yes, and it is good Coins. You know, it's his job to move the chess pieces how he wants.

If it was me in that role, though, I'd be really tempted to stay there because this is an opportunity that you haven't had to pick that high to have a chance to find a real difference maker. Because you know, Mike, there's twenty two positions on the starting on the field at any given time, there's only fourteen picks, thirteen guys ahead of you. It's a really good chance to potentially get maybe the best player at their position, and as

far as a prospect, I think that's really enticing. One thing that did kind of frustrate me at times with Insider Inbox and I tried to, you know, VI as mature and professional about as possible, is a lot of people saying this pastoral. Why don't the Packers have a defense like Jacksonville, Why don't they have Jalen Ramsey in

their secondary? Well two reasons for that. Jacksonville for years was significantly under the cap, which allowed them to sign Clays Campbell, which allowed them to sign Blak Jackson, and then also due to some of their losing seasons, were able to be third, fourth, fifth overall to get a Jalen Ramsey. When you're picking higher, it's a lot easier

to find those difference makers. Derek Barnett this past year of Philadelphia Eagles seven and nine, a year ago Super Bowl champions now makes one of the biggest plays of the game and recovering that fumble off the one hop Eagles win the Super Bowl four pick overall, We'll see what happens with this year's Yeah, you definitely it's you definitely don't want to miss on it, that's for sure. And as you said, this goes back to, you know,

the transition with the coaching staff. Mike Petton coming in, he's going to be giving Mike McCarthy and Brian Goudakin some ideas as to as to what he's looking for now. If that player is there, maybe they take him. But there's also you know, as we'll talk about, leading up to the draft, you start thinking about wide receiver and tight end and offensive tackle and those types of things that you know positions you can never seem to have

enough guys. So that's why, you know, you always focus on that, you know that that best player available mentality, because you don't want to leave that best player for somebody else to pick just because you're looking to fill a slote in whatever the Packers do with that fourteenth overall pick, it's good to keep in mind they'll also have the fourteenth pick in the second round as well. Yeah, no doubt with that. West. Let's take care of a little sponsored business. Today is a perfect day to fill

up with some new Campbell's Chunky Max soup. Chunky Max is loaded with more meat than you can handle, a lot more. We're talking more than a comparable Chunky Soup. So go on fill up with new Campbell's Chunky Max Soup. Campbell's Chunky Soup, the official sup partner of the green Bay Packers. Back with more on Packers Unscripted right after this, Welcome back to Packers Unscripted, Mike Spofford alongside West Hot Quits. And what's one more point I wanted to make following

up on what we were just talking about. You mentioned the Packers having obviously the fourteenth pick in the second round as well. You look at that that's actually going to be number forty five overall. Just for comparison's sake, Jason Spriggs, the Packers drafted him in the second round at overall, and Ted Thompson had to trade up to get to that spot at overall. The Packers are going to have the pick in the second round, and that's a spot they own. They don't have to necessarily give

up another pick to get that. So again, just where your position here. This is a this is a unique and different opportunity for green Bay. But with that, I also want to follow up. You were talking in the last segment about the Jacksonville Jaguars in their defense. They made some news over this past weekend on the offensive side because they signed their quarterback, quarterback Blake Bortles, to

a a contract extension. A lot of people wondering just what Jacksonville was going to do at the quarterback position. What are your thoughts on their decision here? I think it was smart because if you look at exactly the numbers on this contract, he was going to be getting the fifth year option up. They already had done that a year ago, so he had one more year left and it was going to be a pretty significant cap number for them based on where he was picked third

overall the number of seasons ago. So by doing the extension, not only does it lower the cap number for this year, but it really didn't guaranteed wise. I think it only increased the guarantees by like six or seven million, because that fifth year option is fully guaranteed for for skill and injury. So this is just a really interesting spot now for the Jaguars because now they have some time to figure out if Bortles is the man is going to be the guy that leads their franchise going forward.

And it also is a really good reminder again of what you can do when you have a year or two left on a contract to leverage it, as opposed to what happened with Jimmy Garoppolo and what in a couple of weeks will happen with Kirk Cousins. Well, there is no room to leverage it, and you're gonna have to have all that money up front. Yeah. Well, and

we've seen what happened with Kirk Cousins. He ended up not only getting the franchise tag because his contract had expired, but then they still didn't work out a long term deal, and then they franchise tagged him again. And now Washington got in the position where franchise tagging him a third time financially it's prohibitive. So they had to make a move, and they made the move to get Alex Smith. And now Kirk Cousins is is the top guy out there

on the free agent market at quarterback. It is, and Alex Smith I think set a record for the mono guaranteed money in a contract as well. So it just tells you, Mike, the more you kick a can down the road, what the ramifications of that are. But hey, good for Kirk Cousins. He's a fourth round pick and now he's gonna get paid. Yeah, look at that. But with that, we will call it a wrap on this

edition of Packers Unscripted. Be sure to follow all of our coverage of the team on Packers dot com on Twitter, He's at west Hod, I'm at Mike Spofford at Packers for the team account. Thanks for tuning, and everybody, we'll see you next time. M hm.