The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), America’s local partner in northeastern Syria, was instrumental in the fight against ISIS and is working to fill the vacuum it left behind. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, new Middle East Portfolio Manager Nicholas Heras, and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss the structure and behavior of the SDF, the group’s relationship with the US military, the unique challenges it faces in governing, and its efforts to ...
Feb 28, 2020•21 min•Ep. 13
Qassem Soleimani’s death and the prospect of further US-Iranian military escalation raise the question of Iran’s military capacity. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Ground Forces are Tehran’s reserve of last resort for both internal and external security challenges. The Iranian regime goes to great lengths to obfuscate the IRGC’s military strength and organization of its ground forces. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) recently published t...
Feb 10, 2020•16 min•Ep. 12
Vladimir Putin's current term as Russia's President expires in 2024. Over the past two weeks, Putin reshuffled Russia's government, proposed a set of major changes to the Russian constitution, and pledged significant social spending. ISW's Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova describes how this reshuffling fits into Putin's ongoing campaign to retain power and the subsequent vulnerabilities Putin will face as he manages this transition.
Jan 30, 2020•8 min
Last month, ISW Director of Tradecraft and Innovation, Colonel (Ret.) Ketti Davison, traveled to Iraq with a team of experts organized by the UNHCR. She got a first-hand look at some of the security and humanitarian conditions on the ground in IDP and refugee camps and met with government officials during her trip to central and northern Iraq. On this episode, Ketti shares her key takeaways from this trip and discusses the broader political dynamics that are currently shaking Iraq, a country tha...
Jan 24, 2020•12 min
The Kremlin is trying to pull countries around the world into its information space. Kremlin-linked media outlets signed more than 50 cooperation agreements with counterparts around the world in the last five years. Russia uses its information space to expand its influence, mask the Kremlin’s aggression, and spread disinformation that undermines the U.S. and the West. In this episode, ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia researcher George Barros discuss their recent publication on...
Jan 17, 2020•7 min
Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to enter his third decade in power. As we enter 2020, how Putin sees his own position on the global map reveals a lot about what the United States can expect from Russian policy in the future. ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Research Assistant Mason Clark discuss where Putin has made progress in advancing his goals and where he has faced set-backs during this episode’s 2019 year in review assessment.
Dec 22, 2019•16 min•Ep. 8
The U.S. national security community's growing focus on China and Russia is raising questions about the future of America's role in the Middle East region. Can the U.S. pull back from the broader Middle East and expect other actors to contain the threats building in the region? ISW Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Colonel (ret.) Ketti Davison tackles this question and how America should think about its strategy.
Dec 06, 2019•18 min•Ep. 7
On this episode, ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses her new report “Russia's Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria in a Q&A exchange with Maseh Zarif. Jennifer describes Russia's attempt to exploit the current diplomatic process in Syria to enhance its own credibility and influence in the region and beyond. She outlines what the United States should do to defend its interests and deal with the primary obstacle to peace in Syria – Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
Nov 21, 2019•27 min•Ep. 6
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey's ongoing offensive in Northeastern Syria on November 13th. The meeting occurred as fighting continues in Eastern Syria. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses the events in Syria and abroad that shaped the two presidents' conversation and its subsequent outcome.
Nov 14, 2019•8 min•Ep. 8
The second round of Iraqi protests is entering its third week. ISW's Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Ketti Davison recaps how we got here and discusses the possibility for prolonged instability due to an emerging violent cycle of the protester movement.
Nov 13, 2019•7 min
Protests in Iraq have continued to grow after resuming on October 25th. Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri reversed his position on the ousting of the Iraqi prime minister under the direction of the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander. This direct intervention by Iran signals the potential for a more violent Iranian crackdown against Iraqi protesters. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses three possible trajectories for Iraq's future.
Nov 08, 2019•10 min
The deadline to implement the first phase of the Russo-Turkish deal for northeast Syria passed without significant progress after Kurdish forces refused to withdraw from the border. Meanwhile, a new contingent of US forces deployed to southeast Syria to secure oil fields. US forces also patrolled a Kurdish area, indicating a continued relationship with Kurdish forces. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford explain these details and discuss what to expect next....
Nov 01, 2019•14 min
Evolving conflicts and unrest are reshaping the Middle East rapidly. The U.S. will continue to have key national interests at stake in this region even as challenges outside it demand greater American attention. ISW Board Member General (Ret.) David H. Petraeus joins Maseh Zarif to share his views on a range of issues, including the state of ISIS post-Baghdadi, Iran’s regional campaigns, U.S. policy in the region, and the challenge of balancing among national security requirements globally....
Oct 31, 2019•46 min•Ep. 5
Rumors of an imminent resignation of the Iraqi prime minister emerged after nationalist Shi’a cleric Muqtada al Sadr made a dramatic return to Iraq and joined escalating protests in Najaf. He and Iranian proxy leader Hadi Al Ameri each released statements pledging to hold a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in the Iraqi parliament. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses the political stakes and possibilities.
Oct 29, 2019•8 min
Mass protests resumed in Baghdad and across the Shi’a - majority provinces in southern Iraq despite the Iraqi government’s attempts to de-escalate through concessions and limited reforms. Protesters torched political offices and militia headquarters in multiple provinces, chanting slogans against both the Iraqi government and Iran’s proxies in Iraq. One Iranian proxy militia reportedly used live ammunition against protesters. ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Iraq expert Samantha Le...
Oct 25, 2019•9 min
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to coordinate military movements in Northern Syria. The two presidents reached an initial agreement intended to push Kurdish forces away from the Turkey-Syria border region over the coming days. ISW Syria analyst John Dunford discusses what is known about the new deal and how it will affect Turkish and Russian actions in Syria moving forward.
Oct 23, 2019•9 min
Iraq’s government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran’s role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week at a time when some U.S. forces are shifting from Syria into Iraq.
Oct 22, 2019•11 min
The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria’s future. ISW Russia analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin’s broader ambitions in Syria.
Oct 17, 2019•11 min
The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria analyst John Dunford, and Counterterrorism analyst Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week.
Oct 16, 2019•15 min
Maseh Zarif and ISW Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Colonel Ketti Davison (U.S. Army, Retired) discuss regional destabilization in the Middle East in the wake of the crises in Iraq and Syria. They further address how the U.S. withdrawal from Northeastern Syria will have grave consequences for the future of US security operations and partnerships.
Oct 15, 2019•23 min•Ep. 4
American forces in Northern Syria have begun a “deliberate withdrawal” as Turkish-backed forces continue to deepen their invasion of areas held by the U.S. partner force, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Lieutenant General Michael Nagata (US Army, retired), discusses the immediate and long-term implications of this retreat from Syria. LTG Nagata retired as the Director of strategy at the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) after a long career in special operations.
Oct 14, 2019•19 min•Ep. 3
Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdraw from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW’s Syria expert John Dunford explains the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and t...
Oct 09, 2019•10 min
Iran signaled it may send Iranian security forces to Iraq, ostensibly to secure the upcoming Arbae’en pilgrimage. But Iran may alternatively be preparing these Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to help suppress Iraqi protests. The LEF previously helped the Bashar al Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion as early as 2011. The Iranian Regime has used it more recently to quell domestic protests. The unit may assist Iran’s proxies in Iraq to do the same. Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert from...
Oct 09, 2019•9 min
The Iraqi prime minister’s concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only part of the story unfolding. There remains a fierce and ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella is joined by the Critical Threats Project’s Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government’s recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation on the ground, and how the Iranian regime is positioning its prox...
Oct 08, 2019•11 min
Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford will discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow.
Oct 07, 2019•11 min•Ep. 1
The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeting killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran’s proxies. Leading Shia political figure Muqtada al Sadr called for the dissolution of the government and a new election in an attempt to oust the sitting Prime Minister, who has failed to address the crisis. A parliament session is reportedly scheduled for October 5th. It remains ...
Oct 05, 2019•13 min•Ep. 4
This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years has shaped the current crisis. Crisis Brief is a special edition of the Overwatch series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding national security crises.
Oct 04, 2019•14 min•Ep. 3
Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Directer Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next.
Oct 03, 2019•8 min•Ep. 2
A major crisis is unfolding in Iraq. Protests against the Iraqi government have spread to 11 predominantly Shi'a provinces and become violent. Government forces have used live ammunition against protestors in multiple provinces and are fighting with protestors to secure the Baghdad airport. ISW is providing an update on the situation as of 8pm this evening and outlining the possible trajectories for further escalation.
Oct 03, 2019•9 min•Ep. 1
In this episode of Overwatch, Maseh Zarif talks with his ISW colleagues Nataliya Bugayova and Darina Regio about what Russia is up to in Africa. They discuss Russia’s coordinated campaign to gain economic and political influence, and its attempt to create opportunities for expanding its military presence on the continent. Nataliya and Darina also put this campaign in the context of U.S. interests, identifying why the United States should be concerned and what to look for in the coming months....
Sep 26, 2019•27 min•Ep. 2
