Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Retired Army General James Dubik discuss the feasibility of the Russian plan and its likely goals. They also discuss the challenges and benefits that come...
Feb 28, 2023•44 min•Ep. 73
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces its world-renowned maps of the war in Ukraine. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and se...
Feb 23, 2023•21 min•Ep. 72
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures in occupied territory. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his tea...
Feb 22, 2023•19 min•Ep. 71
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodo...
Feb 16, 2023•24 min•Ep. 70
Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt state-on-state conflict. Nevertheless, divergent Iranian and Turkish threat perceptions could lead to miscalculations by either side. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, a senior analyst and the Iran...
Jun 28, 2022•22 min•Ep. 69
This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in Iraq, how foreign interference and regional competitions are continuing to destabilize the Iraqi state, and where Iraq, and the region, may be headed in the months ahead. Click here to read the report....
Jun 24, 2022•34 min•Ep. 68
A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli intelligence site near the construction of the new US consulate. The attack demonstrates the Iranian leadership’s growing willingness to use increasingly aggressive and offensive capabilities to pursue e...
Apr 04, 2022•12 min•Ep. 67
A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who have become increasingly marginalized in the political establishment in recent years. This bloc could complicate the intra-regime struggle to determine who will succeed the supreme leader when he leaves ...
Feb 25, 2022•13 min•Ep. 66
Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team believe will happen next.
Feb 04, 2022•19 min•Ep. 65
Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the Iraqi and Lebanese governments.
Jan 12, 2022•22 min•Ep. 64
Over the past year, ISW’s Russia team has closely tracked Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine’s independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's need to set conditions ahead of the Russian Presidential election in 2024 will likely force the Kremlin to either double down upon or pull back from these efforts. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia team lead Mason Clark discusses the inflection poi...
Jan 07, 2022•24 min•Ep. 63
The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Peter Mills to talk about what to expect in Afghanistan in 2022. Peter will provide his prognosis for the Taliban government as well as share some specific inflection points that he’ll be watching for.
Jan 05, 2022•25 min•Ep. 62
A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey’s limited resources will remain tightly strained in 2022. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW research director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Turkey Researcher Ezgi Yazici to talk about her forecast for Turkey in 2022. Ezgi provides her thoughts on the political ...
Jan 04, 2022•23 min•Ep. 61
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has continued to fight against the new Taliban government in the hope of creating a hardline Islamic caliphate. IS-KP has targeted Taliban fighters and officials, attacked economic infrastructure to prevent the government from providing services to the populace,...
Dec 06, 2021•30 min•Ep. 60
Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation has ramifications for stability far beyond the frigid forests of this Eastern European border region. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Lead Russia Analyst Mason Clark discusses the origins of this crisis ...
Nov 18, 2021•16 min•Ep. 59
Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments appear to have slowed since then. On this episode of Overwatch, Matt McInnis and Ezgi Yazici discuss what a new Turkish incursion could look like and the effects that such a development would have on the broa...
Nov 03, 2021•24 min•Ep. 58
The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987. On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may reveal about a possible future conflict with Iran and strategic competition with Russia and China in the region. Dr. David Crist is the Executive Director of the Joint Staff History and Research Office an...
Oct 26, 2021•17 min•Ep. 57
We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling for influence in the vacuum left by US forces. Katherine Zimmerman, a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has followed US counterterrorism iss...
Sep 10, 2021•24 min•Ep. 56
Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s definition of this term differs from the West and why those differences need to be understood by US leaders and policymakers. On this episode of Overwatch...
Jul 14, 2021•20 min•Ep. 55
Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamined because those same Russian leaders believe they are on the defensive side of a hybrid war perpetrated by the West against Russia. Failing to apprec...
Jun 24, 2021•21 min•Ep. 54
The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest that his successor will be more hardline and less willing or able to rein in the aggressive instincts of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director...
Apr 15, 2021•35 min•Ep. 53
ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has launched an operation to quell and contain ISIS activity in the camp, but the operation’s long-term prospects for success are grim without consistent international support. On this episode of Overwatch,...
Apr 09, 2021•11 min•Ep. 52
Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and beyond. On this episode of Overwatch, Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and General David H. Petraeus sit down to discuss the US-Taliban ...
Mar 16, 2021•27 min•Ep. 51
The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes beyond nuclear nonproliferation to include thorny issues such as the Iranian ballistic missile program and Iran's activities in the Middle East. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of...
Feb 02, 2021•43 min•Ep. 50
Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to several other states in the former Soviet Union. He exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to fuel disinformation campaigns against the United States and undermine sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. These succe...
Jan 27, 2021•25 min•Ep. 49
Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance with the terms of the deal. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise ...
Jan 25, 2021•32 min•Ep. 48
A civil war between Ethiopia’s central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect the surrounding region. The fighting has pushed refugees into Sudan, drawn in fighters from Eritrea, and created fertile ground for militant groups like Al-Shabaab to recruit and expand. On this episode of...
Dec 28, 2020•15 min•Ep. 47
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW’s Non-Resident Fellow in Indo-Pacific Security, recently published a detailed report examining China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese state and military’s coordinated nationwide response to the COVID-...
Dec 20, 2020•44 min•Ep. 46
The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese military diplomacy and the threat from Iran. McMaster argues that US troop deployments, and other forms of engagement abroad, "are immensely important to sustaining our security and prosperity" and that th...
Dec 07, 2020•41 min•Ep. 45
The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin’s contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s costly military operations failed to achieve their desired political outcome, resulting instead in a protracted war between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian proxies occupying eastern Ukraine and sophisticated political and information warfare aimed at shaping Kyiv’...
Nov 16, 2020•15 min•Ep. 44
