Welcome to the Wednesday podcast your host today is mr. Assad Raza when CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military diplomats development officers and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with a partner Nations.
People and Leadership our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last Three feet of Foreign Relations, contact the show, email us at see a podcasting at gmail.com, or look us up on the Civil Affairs, association website at www.flcfs.org. I'll have those in the show notes. Hello, and welcome to the one. See a podcast is a production of the Civil Affairs Association.
I'm your host, Assad Raza. Our guests today are two emerging Scholars and practitioners within the Special Operations civil Affairs Community. There are going to share some of their findings under near turn. Geopolitical consequence of climates in security major, Alex Kenna and major mad Alexander and welcome to the one. See a podcast. Thanks yeah thanks for having us Matt. And I have been working on this for the past 18 months as you kind of seen our bios.
We were Gather actually quite bit replacing each other and both Columbia and Trinidad. We both worked in the 98th. Civil Affairs. Battalion southcom oriented civil Affairs, Battalion. So, when we both got accepted the Naval Postgraduate School. We decided to work together, Matt and I both had kind of the same kind of mindset as we wanted to give back to the branch. And then also understanding that uses stock footed the bill for
us to attend. So we definitely want to give something back to our career field. Thank you. And how did you decide on the climate and security A lot of the communities and populations actually live along the coast Inlet orals.
We don't really have any doctor and or best practices yet of working with communities along the coast and those impacts on how to conduct some reconnaissance engagements little Knowledge Management. So that's what we originally started as we were diving into it and learning two-thirds of the world's population lives within 100 miles of the coast. I came across a bit talking about what's known as the weights Glacier or within the climate. This world known as the Doomsday Glacier.
It's about the size of Florida, and it's actually it's down in Antarctica and its melting faster than any other Glacier or most of the other glaciers. And it's a, it's a positive feedback loop of warm water impact, and Glacier underneath causing more water to melt. And so it means more water.
So it's melting at a fast rate and climate scientists are predicting that, once it collapses will have this cascading effect of rising the sea levels, potentially several Hers, Matt and I are talking about this dinner, like, well, that's going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people say well for the First World countries, you know, we can find a way to adapt and survive, just fine, you know, high-capacity government, you know, I threshold population. Alright. That's alright.
It's like, but what about these other locations that are? They're not as well off as as some other First World countries like like, man they could, I could really use some help are also quite vulnerable to other actors with Moline and a farias and intent. So we asked ourselves, is anyone looking into this Specifically in a DOD side only, as of recently has changes in climate warming.
Planet becoming more to the Forefront on what it means for the United States. So we started looking into the near-term, geopolitical consequences of climate change and climate and security coming onto this. And that's how we kind of came up with the question. So, when you first started working on your research, you really saw a gap in the literature, some of the time insecurities, I like how you focused on the Doomsday, the Doomsday. Glacier Thwaites.
Yeah, the Thwaites. Glacier down in Antarctica. When I first got out to the Naval Postgraduate School, we also found out that our old Battalion Commander Colonel James kyiv. It was currently the commandant of Defense, Language Institute right down the street. So we talked with them early and often and we're getting some
advice and counsel from him. And he suggested that, what makes a good thesis is something that's important, but no one's talking about it. And within our initial research, this was not a topic that was really being talked about. Get advice from Colonel, keep it as absolutely major Malik Xander. Can you summarize?
How you guys work on it? The two things we looked at when we were going through the research, one was finally, when the NSS and National Security strategy, dropped in 2022, we identified their two things and really, they talked a lot about adversarial competition, as well as the instability that's caused by climate change. As, you know, from the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
They talk about how the world's warming any increase in intensity and frequency of natural disasters and extreme weather events. And then additionally, the amount of people that are actually in vulnerable areas to climate change and has Alex talked about earlier, those in highly vulnerable countries as well. So more underdeveloped countries. Well, that was one of the biggest gaps that we saw was that they talk about both but they never talk about both
pieces together. So, how we looked at it was, if you have climate change, it's going to result in natural hazards, which ultimately affect Man systems and they create drivers of insecurity within those population centers. So how we go about affecting those things?
It also creates an opportunity for adversarial competition whether it's the PRC or Russia can exploit or use the opportunities that climate change our climate and security causes for their own Ambitions, as well as their own Regional influence in those areas. I don't talk about more of the model we used to illustrate and explain to the problem sets that we end up choosing. And then they actual problem sets for case studies that we pick.
The first thing we decided is how is competition occurring and that these different levels. And man, I kind of saw, there was nothing really on there that addresses both non-state actors and state actors to include violent, extremist organizations, transnational, criminal organizations, within that, within those nsa's. So we kind of came up with a term On here called governance competition.
Or when I third-party actor, challenges the legitimacy, the authority and influence of me of an existing governing body over, a population by undermining circumventing or substituting
governing efforts. When we talk about governance or talking about a person or small group of people that has that greater influence of legitimacy over a larger group of people, this can be anything from a youth, soccer league up to the United Nations. So with that understanding on their we went ahead and developed a model to help lay out each of our case. Studies that I'll talk about in
a moment. I call this the governance competition model within that the Challenger will always have a greater strategic objectives that are trying to accomplish to include anything that could be political military or economic to name a few. And that may be more covert and less obvious to the existing governance may be look more like a relationship as cooperation rather than complete replacement. Open it.
Of a government. So there are intermediate, objectives can come online to see what's more actually out in the open and what's going on. It may be undermining the government and maybe forms of economic statecraft showing his cooperation with that other governing body to name a few but still it underlying strategic objective.
So within that the Challenger needs to identify targeted groups on their through such as like, how a psychological operations, desert target audience analysis on Whose best tool uses leverage to A, those intermediate objectives. So it could be disenfranchised group, it could be a certain political party just to name a few. So, within on that, once they targeted, group is identified, comes those methods of influence, though, best use within the circumstances of those environment to best
leverage. Those Target groups to meet those objectives. They can be anything within this below. Threshold armed conflict to include violence formation operations, economic statecraft, anything to do with cyber as well. These are just a few to name They could be used to leverage
those groups. And so what comes down to this, once a challenge identifies, all of these, they have to identify the perfect window of opportunity on here or what man I reference in our paper as the Nexus event, that allows them to employ their methods of influence. On those targeted groups to meet their objectives and specifically for this paper, we use those climate and security factors and events that occur as those Nexus events on there.
So next we've developed this model, we identify the Problem. Now we got to see, is this actually occurring in the world and we decided to take a couple of different steps, a couple of different cocoms because our target audience on here. We want to pitch this towards is at the Strategic level to include the gcc's and we wanted to hit a specific kind of timeline something hit in the near historical realm of things that's fresh on, everyone's mind.
Also something that's currently happening in developing and then something in the near term future. Yes. Syrian Civil War. Central America, specifically, Guatemala Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, and then also the Pacific island chains. So, for this next portion, we're going to start talking about each of those case, studies briefly and Matt's, gonna go ahead and talk about the Syrian Civil War.
Thank you. So with Syria, just to start in, 2006 to 2011, there was an extreme drought there and maybe that was the spark or what really A lot of turmoil and uplifted people from their normal life styles. However, there's so many different factors that you could talk about it was this or was that, but it's one thing.
If it's not to go in notice that this drought really created a huge movement of people and displaced people from the northeastern areas, which was also an area where Isis was heavily invested in recruiting. So a lot of the farmers, a lot of people in those areas but extremely vulnerable.
However, as they came South, it built up on Urban periphery which was also exacerbated by populations, moving over from Iraq due to the ongoing War. So you had a couple different factors playing there but the drought was one of the most extreme droughts and I think it was over a century in the region so it shouldn't go overlooked which is what led to a lot of those Grievances and ultimately led to some of the the issues that occurred within the country.
And then that played out into the role, which we have today which is you have multiple different external State. Actors that are in As well as non-state actors that have created this Quagmire that we don't see any really end in sight, and it's still ongoing today. But with that, that's pretty much like the Syrian case in a
nutshell. And I handed over to Alex to talk about this Central America peace within Central America, its kind of with in between a rock and a hard place when considering the issues of climate and security over on the Pacific side, it's known as the dry Corridor. For the last couple of decades, it's been getting severe.
Drought has been occurring off the Pacific side in the most increasing every year to the point where the Rainy seasons are projected from being twice, a year to only once a year for the region and for an area that's predominantly based on agriculture. In our am an existing issues with non-state actors such as the MS-13 and body. 018 devotee had opportunities of like low capacity government, low
threshold population. Now, compile this on top with getting hit, on the other side, on the eastern coast, with the warming, oceans of what the Atlantic and the Caribbean. And the increased strength and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes with a warming oceans. It's almost like jet fuel to a hurricane and provides them get more strength as we all remember her in 2020. And with the Hurricanes Iota and at a both back-to-back impacting the coastal side of Honduras and Nicaragua.
So there's already been a historical issue of immigration out of those regions and heading up towards our Southern borders, issues have been dealing with for several.
Ministrations. And with the issues of MS-13 and body weight, teen or Eddie, having governance competitions on those areas and the cycle of immigration deportation and both of those transnational, criminal organizations being of origin of the United States. They've only been growing in strength in the region in the last several years.
So with them and governance competition, they've been focusing on with their goals of continuing, the freedom of financing and operations, and don't necessarily want to take over the government. So, With all these issues on top of each other, this leaves perfect opportunity for external State actors, which they have been coming into the region and providing what may seem as assistance to those governments that are at low capacity and the thresholds of those populations
are quite low. Our course, for their own malign reasons. As we've seen, China has been practicing economic statecraft for over the past. 20 years with in Latin. America. Southcom AO are starting off. Originally with only probably about one country and about 2000, 2001 it.
It's now just over 21. Maybe 22 countries as we recently, seen in the news, the last five years, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador have already announced the recognition of Taiwan. So, as we can see here, based on the economic statecraft, with state-owned Enterprises and applying its economic aid packages to these countries in the region, they're gaining more political power within a global sphere, are also gaining political military, and economic
placement throughout the Western hemisphere in our own backyard for Russia. They've been gaining also influence through military sales and training specifically in Nicaragua with the authoritarian. President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, receiving a military equipment and training from Russia. So Russia, at the very least, now has influence within our region and access and placement, and Venezuela Cuba, and in Nicaragua. So, emerging challenges happen
in those regions. Want to go ahead and hand it back. Over to Matt and he's going to talk about the emerging challenges in the Pacific. So the last case study we had was the Pacific island countries and what really sparked it, honestly there's so many different places in Asia, we wanted to do something, was in dope, a calm focused and there's so many different locations that you could select from one place, actually sparked.
It was when the Solomon Islands had the bilateral security agreement with the PRC back during April 20 22 so that's shifted our Focus. You know, what's going on here in the Island countries. Their number one threat is in a specific country, a non-state actor, a state actor, it is actually climate change. Most of these countries are very concerned with what's going on with rising sea levels.
As well as the potential for an increase in natural disasters and typhoons they're concerned, what climate change could bring. And as the world warms that's one of their biggest Focus areas. So they've created by Pacific island Forum focused on those security challenges.
And An example of this and how we can see where a third-party actor, as in the PRC is trying to exploit this for their own opportunities, and gains is they're using, for example, the global development initiative, which is sort of a very vague term that came about in 2021 with that, they've created a China Pacific island countries, climate action, cooperation Center. That's in, I believe Shanghai or Beijing, but what they're doing there is bringing over Partners
from Pacific island countries to work with the PRC in China. To mitigate some of these circumstances with climate change. So it's giving them a foothold in that second to third island chain. That's extremely important as far as how things could potentially play out as tensions. Height between the US and China and giving this location.
It represents a gateway to Asia and could play a pivotal role is any movement across the Pacific. That's what we looked at with the Pacific island countries and how you have that competition or adversarial competition between what the prc's trying to.
Due to exploit potential Partners also is Alex's talking about some of the recognition, for Taiwan, the nation's that still do. And a lot of those are Latin America. The other half majority, are in these Pacific island countries is they try to shift Focus, which did just happen recently or things last year with Fiji.
So, there is some concern with with knew how that could play out as they just try to chip away at those countries that still recognize Taiwan. So that's really all three of our case studies in a nutshell, Matt, and Alex a lot of information there. I really appreciate it and I applaud you guys for doing your research. I wanted to ask you where there any limitations on your studies. First of all, Matt and I are not climate scientists by trade or
by training. I actually want to give a shout-out to our advisor Christian Fletcher at the Naval Postgraduate School, who is one of our two advisors who will use more of an expert on climate and security and on energy security. She really was like that Guiding Light points the right direction to Publications and education on it so well.
Overall just kind of looking at climate and security, through the lens of DOD and understanding the political the economic and the Civil domain as it is, it's anyone who's looked into. It's very wide deep and complex. So want to put out there is disclaimer, then we understand that we could not cover every single variable, you know, especially with the time constraints that you have. But I do like your approach towards it, not going into a single case, study in Deep, dive into one.
Actually identified three different case studies with three different types of threats, which I think opens a conversation for future research. That continue going on within the climate and security specifically looking through it. You'll deal ends. So thank you. So can you discuss a little bit about your findings and what gaps you guys identified?
Yeah. So like one of the biggest gaps that we discovered was really just the fact that there's all this, the conversation that was mentioned sort of before is, you know, between the national security strategy and then also the Adversarial competition, how we're talking about climate change and climate instability and then we're talking about governance competition or adversarial competition. But is there an interaction there?
How do they interact and that sort of led us to the findings that we discovered from all the three case studies? Which were that essentially destructive climate events, they can serve as a threat multiplier that climbing and security increases the chance of governance competition or adversarial competition and also climbing and security provides. Opportunity for a state or a non-state actor that they can exploit a certain situation or increase their own influence
into a certain situation. And then lastly, it's that it creates a filled for the u.s. to advance our own influence. If he can additionally on their weave, through our own strategies and what Publications from DOD, there is a current Gap in u.s. DOD strategy. The climate adaptation plan by DOD was published in 2021. And the course shortly, Afterwards, all of the service. Branches also publish their own climate strategy. Now, it all falls back to the higher, the US government, and
their priorities. And a lot of it was focused on domestic issues and having a more resilient Force, to a changing climate environment to include installations Naval ports, and yards and airfields. Able to be more resilient within a changing climate environment, also for organizations and operations too. Still occur in a more climate challenging environment and also reduction in the dod's contribution into carbon emissions and greenhouse gases
and such. So that's why you see a lot of the Aegis service components talking about within their own fleets of vehicles, aircraft and ships on going more toward an electric side of propulsion. In a glass thing is that the lines of effort within the climate adaptation plan are looking towards greater response to humanitarian.
Assistance and disaster relief requirements outside of the United States and recognize and it's going to be a greater issue but it kind of just stops there and Matt and I totally agree. Got to start with a strong Foundation. Domestically first, before we reach out more towards International Community with concerns, the climate and security. But we notice there is not really any current efforts towards those who may become vulnerable and who may fall prey to malign actors looking through
each of the service. Branches a Temptation plans. There's maybe about a sentence to have a paragraph within all the documents that address the opportunities created by climate and security may be taken advantage of by malign actors and just kind of stops there. So that was the other gaps we have noticed as well. Thank you good that you got the identified any kind of bring it out to the Forefront that there is a gap in the OD strategy, little bit more focus on
domestic issues resiliency. But as you mentioned the Threats from climate insecurity. If the system's approach, so everything's connected. So I'm glad you guys did that. So what would you recommend if you had an opportunity to sit in front of a co-commander and telling them, this is what we recommend to be able to defeat this problem. Again from our advisor, Colonel Chi, that kind of comes down to the feasibility and the appetite to execute.
The more things you kind of have already existing systems. Aligned the easier for us to be able to execute includes organizations lines of effort funding and execution on it, for the climate adaptation plan and it's a lines of efforts. We don't want to change anything on there. We would like to add on to when the u.s. is ready to execute.
So we came up with something. We were actually sitting in a cybersecurity strategy class for DOD and came across a 20-18 one on a line of effort called defend forward. Just like one that seems appropriate and we just kind of tweaking with a few words. We kind of came up with our own little statement for what defend forward within the climate security realm would look like something like that.
We will defend for to disrupt or halt, malicious governance competition, or even zero competition at its source, including activity that falls below the level of armed conflict We will strengthen the security governance and the state resiliency to climate events that contribute to the current and future US military advantages. We will collaborate with our interagency industry and international Partners to advance our mutual interest.
Now, we only replaced maybe like three or four words are added onto the current line of effort for the 2018 cybersecurity strategy. So something's already concept, that's already plugged with cybersecurity strategy and I also believe with usnorthcom also has Defend forward strategy. So it has to be a top level down
kind of execution. Three key things we kind of like identified that have this happen and deployed appropriately and you'd be able to identify where these issues are going to occur, have to forecast out and what issues can occur and and have geopolitical ramifications and then what do we mobilize both in funding and actual Personnel on the ground to firm? 29 execute. To defend forward strategy.
So, first kind of start on the top level to identify Matt and I, again, we don't want to reinvent the wheel. See if there's any kind of forecasting systems for climate and security and geopolitical issues, what we actually came across a podcast from DARPA, talking about their a eyes to climate Tipping, Point model, and we reached out the DARPA back in February and talked about their program and how it helps to forecast these climate and security issues that could
occur several years down. Road to focus on it another program that working on called the world modelers program. This is not only like an AI program else. I was a tons of experts and technicians on there to kind of overlap, the see these issues. But with these to overlap it can kind of help predict any climate and security and governance / a visceral competition that could occur and we push this to them and they say yeah this is very reasonable.
Well then we would have had a hand it off more in the u.s. policy realm of things go ahead and identifying what are the big priorities based on our own? Own National Security strategy and our own policies moving forward as a nation and where we want to focus once the decisions are made that can be handed off to the geographic. Combatant commands to go ahead
and start executing from there. It could be established as a climate security, working group, or climate security cell, and start focusing on those areas specifically to kind of more focused narrowly down and get into the Aegis and then we can happen next from. There is the efforts after delegated to Geographic, combatant commands, they could confirm, or deny these Threats are vulnerabilities down at the Tactical level as their areas of responsibility.
For example, using some existing organizations, and persisting with persistent access and placement. Well, we already have such an organization as our Special Operation Forces, civil Affairs, who have this persistent engagements across the world, who are always working an overt conditions and constantly being requested by US embassies and partner Nation governments across the world.
Through these efforts, we can confirm or deny more of these political and social vulnerabilities in the area. And then we can take a hub-and-spoke approach with the Civil Affairs, teams, or civil Military Support elements, bring in climate, scientists, civil engineers, and any other organizations within the realm to help solve these problems. Once, it's confirmed tonight and go ahead and execute with the appropriate actions and they to take place.
Next question comes on there. It's like, well, hi. Are you going to fund this? Well, there's already on that International approach with the build back better World initiative, which Target specifically on climate change and climate and security issues and also the curtain behind administration's prepared, action plan which also names climate and security issues and funding to go towards that.
Also, just recently this past week, talking with a talking about more of the theater, Special Operations Command are looking at having funding available towards climate change and climate and security issues and efforts going towards As well. So with this whole line of effort and falling further into it When developing an actually talking at DARPA, they actually mentioned that us africom has been looking at climate and security has impacts on the
continent. And actually, I don't whole Symposium on it. And actually, another civil Affairs officer, I believe in the reserves published the silver Association Journal site, talking about issues with in Africa and in climate and security, and all for you that link. That could be reference on there, too. So it's something that's being talked. About all the pieces are there. They can all be aligned and executed and for that potential.
And one last thing I'll add on to the identify portion is we actually had a opportunity to see some cross-pollination between the Naval Postgraduate School in the Middlebury Institute over in Monterey and they came over a students and talked with one of them and they talked about their capabilities and open source research, and they were actually able to forecast out 24 hours ahead of any other program on. When North Korea was going to do a Rocket and missile launches.
And I asked him is like, would you be able to use the same thing and open source, research, to help forecast efforts of external, SATA actors, such as Russia and China funding through either military sales or through state owned Enterprises economic statecraft on regions of interest in such as I go and they smile back that I could be potentially.
So we could do so open source research, be another tool in the toolkit for the identify portion of a identify prioritize mobilize You cracked in a lot in that answer there. I really like how you guys took the defend forward. I will, we modified it for climate and security. That's great. Your recommendations from strategic level all the way down to Tactical levels to the T,
stock levels, I appreciate that. You guys are already providing a framework for people to kind of fall in and expand upon.
It's not something they're starting from scratch now but if you got something to be able to work off of, so looking at this topic of climate and security, well there's some of the feature challenges you see and trying to implement this I think one of the things that we could see is just the fact that there is still a stigma that sort of revolves around climate change and its trying to find ways that as we come across it.
Building that to where people have a better understanding of it and how it can play into geopolitical implications. So I think ultimately, it's like, finding that way to where you're looking at. This is, it's just another tool to where we can help us understand underlying issues that lead to competition to crisis to Conflict across the competition. Continuum and how we can work towards building Partnerships that allow us to compete against our adversaries. So I think it's looking at it
from that standpoint. And I'll add on to there is the we briefed this a couple of times and we had to be quite careful with our words at times, because the term climate change is quite polarizing and sometimes it would stop a brief right in its tracks. I do believe, if you were to control client there are 187 page document that within the actual written portions of it climate change.
I think it's mentioned probably no more than three times because words do have meaning and history behind them. Well, that's good to know and you're absolutely right, you know, I think we've seen in the last couple of years, the term climate change, really being polarizing and politicized, but using the terms, like climate threats and really focusing on the actual threat portion of this, I think is really important, and it's kind of educational too.
And I'm my assumption that. It's something. We also got to teach our partners in our partner Nations down range for them to kind of gain a pop better, appreciation of the threats. So, talking about this and trying to learn and educate, eight people on climate threats or climate insecurities working people go learn more about your research. Yeah, so we have a couple of publications, of course, our thesis itself, all glorious hundred eighty seven pages on it.
I'll provide some links available for when you publish the podcast on there. Directly from Naval Postgraduate School. It's open source available to everyone. If you like a more condensed version we have on the small Wars Journal, we posed about sixteen hundred words on there called the blind spot. How a gap in climate security, strategy, Lisa opportunities for malign actors and strategic competition.
We've also given a brief. Of our thesis back in November to a panel on the challenges of climate security and governance, competition provide that link and last we also Lee constructed. A two page info paper on the thesis as well to include heavily going into our line of effort of defend forward. Also within the realm of things a great place, if you want to learn more on, it is the center for climate and security and its director and anything written by her. Dr. Aaron Sikorski.
We actually got a lot of information from Rome had the opportunity to meet her at a symposium last month at Duke. That was talking exactly about the same issues as we talked about for our thesis and she has Publications in the war on the Rocks. She BBC Denton's of interviews and such and she's a great resource that sees things. Also, from the more, the dod lens, thanks Alex.
You know, I'll make sure that we post these links on the one, see a podcast website for our listeners that and download it. Right? So I think we're coming to the end here. So in closing, are there any other big takeaways for our listeners today? At our level, we're looking at those near term consequences and how, how best the u.s. can react in the emerging world of strategic competition. But also not forgetting the climate instability. I'm still dealing with issues
with non-state actors. We're also not trying to solve climate change. There's plenty of efforts going on there, but there is that gap of what's happening in the meantime in the near future. Perfect, Matt. Yeah, just To expand upon what Alex was saying is everyone here is climate in security climate change in their taken 100 years
from now, 50 years from now. But there are things that are happening in the near term and that's what we can really focus on. And that's how I think we can make some kind of impact, as well as what will shape geopolitically in areas that have more concern and priority for us. Awesome. I agree. Alex Matt. I want to thank you both for your time and your contribution to this ever evolving topic of future threat.
It and so Affairs specifically during this time here so thanks again and I'll see you guys on the Drop Zone. Thank you so much. Thanks yeah thanks for having us. Thanks for listening. If you get a chance, please like And subscribe, and rate the show on your favorite podcast platform. Also, if you're interested in coming on the show, or hosting an episode, email us at, see, a podcasting at gmail.com? I'll have the email and see a association website in the show
notes. And now most importantly to those, currently out in the field, working with a partner Nations, people or leadership to forward us relations. Thank you all for what you're doing. Stay tuned. For more great episodes. 1 c a podcast. For more great episodes. 1 c a podcast.