On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman

After 39 years of armed conflict with Turkey, outlawed PKK militants may be weakened but not defeated, says author Frederike Geerdink

Aug. 15 marks the 39th anniversary of the launch of the armed campaign by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party against the Turkish state. The group has evolved over the years, shedding its demands for Kurdish independence. Yet however much it rejects the nationalist label, many Kurds continue to join the group in the hope of forcing Turkey to grant its long-repressed Kurdish minority autonomy at the very least. Failing to resolve the Kurdish issue remains one of the biggest obstacles t...

'My father shares a prison cell with inmates who make sandwiches with their own flesh,' says British-Tunisian activist Kaouther Ferjani

Tunisia's descent into autocracy under President Cais Saied is continuing full throttle. The Islamist Ennahda which shared power in successive governments since Tunisia's 2011 Jasmine Revolution is the main target of Saied's ire. Dozens of its members including party leader Rached Ghannouchi are behind bars on flimsily documented charges. Many are being held in life threatening conditions.Their children are mobilizing across the globe to draw attention to their plight.  See Privacy Pol...

Turkey's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership not enough to secure Congressional approval for F-16s, says Hellenic American Leadership Council chief Endy Zemenides

Several top US senators say Turkey's acquisition of US F-16 fighter jets hinges on its ratification of Sweden's membership in NATO. Turkey wants guarantees from Congress that it will sign off on the deal before securing parliamentary approval for Sweden's membership. However, Endy Zemenides, executive director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council, an influential body focusing on US-Greek relations, insists however that it will take more for Congress to approve the sale.  See Privacy ...

Does Turkey's decision to let Sweden join NATO spell new positive era with Washington? Not really, says Turkey analyst Nicholas Danforth

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to tell the Turkish parliament to greenlight Sweden's NATO membership, prompting a flood of praise from alliance leaders. US President Joe Biden, who met with Erdogan for more than an hour, hailed him for what he termed Erdogan's courage. At the same time, Erdogan angered the Kremlin with a series of moves in support of Ukraine including backing its membership of NATO. Is Erdogan turning away from Russia in favor of America and Europe...

Free Turkish Press editor Yavuz Baydar says Erdogan will win local elections, crush Kurds and strut on world stage

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in the May presidential and parliamentary polls ushers in a new and irreversible era in Turkish politics, cementing one man rule and reducing parliament to more of a rubber stamp. The sole threat to Erdogan's grip over power is Turkey's floundering economy but it looks like Turkey's longest serving ruler will muddle through — at least till nationwide local elections next spring.  For more on Turkey's descent into autocracy  read Yavuz Ba...

Iranian academic Arash Azizi says slain Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani looms as large in death as in life

The legacy of Qassem Soleimani, the legendary commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Al Quds Force, continues to reverberate across the region, says his biographer Arash Azizi. He has left a vacuum that has yet to be filled. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info ....

Turkey scholar Howard Eissenstat on the dynamics of Erdogan's enduring success

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was just re-elected president even though pollsters predicted that his rival would win. Turkey scholar Howard Eissenstat says that Erdogan, the country's most skilled politician in modern times, is a master at reading the nation's pulse. But can he sustain his rule in the midst of a failing economy and prevail in critical local elections that are to be held next year? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://a...

Syrian Kurdish leader Salih Muslim says Assad's return to Arab League is welcome, but won't amount to much

The co-chair of the main party governing Kurdish-led northeast Syria believes Arab engagement with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may help secure a peaceful resolution to the Syrian conflict, provided that there are conditions attached. These include granting ethnic and religious minorities equal rights. However, Muslim says "the miserable" League has delivered little if anything on other Arab conflicts. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https:/...

Pro-Kurdish Green Left Party candidate Ceylan Akca says Turkish security forces are terrorizing Kurdish voters but will fail

Turkey's Kurds are poised to swing the outcome of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing the biggest challenge in his 20 years in uninterrupted power. Kurdish parliamentary candidate Ceylan Akca says that despite his government's attempts to intimidate Kurdish voters, the opposition will prevail. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info ....

Former Sudan advisor to US government Cameron Hudson says US sanctions on Sudan's rival generals could have averted conflict

Iraq expert Bilal Wahab says Turkey wants guarantees from Baghdad before allowing Kurdish oil exports to resume

Turkey and Iraq have been mired in a legal dispute over the export of Iraqi Kurdish oil through Turkish export terminals. Baghdad says the deal struck between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds to sell oil is illegal. The International Chamber of Commerce's international arbitration fined Turkey for breach of contract. Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurds have since agreed to resume exports on new terms that gives the central government a greater say. However, Ankara has not allowed the exports to resume. Bilal ...

Turkey analyst Merve Tahiroglu says Kurds will back opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Erdogan in first round

Turkey’s watershed elections on which the future of its crippled democracy hangs are due to be held on May 14. Opinion polls continue to point to a tight race making the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary polls difficult to call . Election security remains a big concern and there is little doubt that Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will stop at little to win. The largest pro-Kurdish bloc however dealt him something of a blow this week declaring it would not field its own candi...

Kurdish academic Mashuq Kurt says Erdogan's electoral alliance with Turkish Hizbullah offshoot a risky step

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan risks losing power for the first time in 20 years in elections that are to be held on May 14. He has turned to Huda par, an Islamist Kurdish party that has roots in Hizbullah, a violent group that waged a bloody war against the PKK and its sympathizers in the 1990s. London-based academic Mashuq Kurt is the author of a widely acclaimed book on Turkey's Hizbullah. He says violence between Huda Par and PKK supporters could be reignited should the election resu...

Turkish commentator Cengiz Candar says Turkey's opposition will win elections overwhelmingly with Kurdish backing

Turkey will hold parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14. The outcome will determine whether Turkey can return to a more democratic path or plunge into full blown autocracy, or worse dictatorship, some say. For the first time the opposition appears to have a chance of winning, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's tight grip over the media, the judiciary and the country's Supreme Electoral Board. Turkish commentator Cengiz Candar argues that Turkey's recent earthq...

Tunisia expert Monica Marks warns Tunisia's march towards dictatorship could turn bloody

Tunisia's autocratic President Kais Saied, since his dramatic power grab in 2021, has increased the volume of repression in the north African nation, arresting scores of opposition figures as well as civil activists and journalists. The country's fledgling democracy is on life support. Yet Western governments are supporting Saied, believing that his iron grip can stave off a fresh exodus of illegal migrants from Europe and that financial assistance will hold Russia and China at bay.  See Pr...

Iran expert John Raine says Iranian hardliners want a military pact with Russia for the survival of the Islamic regime

Cooperation between Iran and Russia has been growing since Russian forces intervened in Syria to help rescue Iran's top regional ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2015. Military ties between the two countries have now expanded to Ukraine, where Russian forces are using drones supplied by Tehran. The deepening alliance is disrupting regional balances and causing worry among Gulf monarchies and Israel.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at h...

Middle East Institute Turkey director Gonul Tol says one man rule, corruption increased deaths in killer earthquakes

Public anger is mounting over the Turkish government's slow response to the massive earthquakes that shook the country's southern regions on Feb. 6. The death toll is rapidly climbing as an unknown number of people remain trapped under the rubble in freezing temperatures in Turkey and Syria alike. Many blame the high number of deaths on the Turkish government's lack of preparedness and lax safety standards. Others say the fact that power is concentrated in the hands of a single person, Turkey's ...

Crisis Group South Caucasus Analyst Olesya Vartanyan warns renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan would impact broader region

Tensions are escalating in the South Caucasus again, as Armenia and Azerbaijan remain locked in a bitter standoff over access to Nagorno-Karabakh. As an emboldened Azerbaijan eyes further gains — including a land corridor to Turkey that would cut off Iran’s access to Armenia — relations between Baku and Teheran are growing more hostile by the day.     https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/turkey-rises-russia-fades-iran-and-azerbaijan-clash-over-armenia   https://www.cr...

The Economist's Turkey Correspondent Piotr Zalewski says don't give up on Turkey's battered democracy quite yet

Turkey is headed for watershed elections on May 14 that could, depending on its outcome, deal the final blow to its wobbly democracy. The odds are fully stacked in favor of the country's autocratic president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Economist magazine last week caused a furore when it published a special report on "Erdogan's Empire"  bearing the title "Turkey's Looming Dictatorship" on its cover. As the report's author, Piotr Zalewski noted, things are really bad in Turkey with the economy...

UK's Syria envoy warns normalizing relations with Assad regime will undermine efforts for justice and accountability

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he wants to meet his longtime nemesis Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Many see Ankara's recent efforts to fix relations with Damascus as part of Erdogan's election strategy, amid promises to send back millions of unwanted Syrian refugees. Others say it's part of an effort to crush the Syrian Kurds' autonomous entity. Either way, normalizing Assad without holding him to account for his crimes will hurt the Syrian people and those countries which enga...

Syrian commentator Ibrahim Hamidi says Kurds have surpassed Jihadis as Assad regime's greatest enemy

The conflict in Ukraine has had a profound impact on geopolitical balances across the globe. The effects are certainly being felt in Syria, where Russia has been propping up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Russia has been pressuring Assad to respond to Turkish overtures, which are primarily underpinned by Ankara"s determination to crush the US-backed Syrian Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19...

Investigative journalist Guillaume Perrier says 'you cannot tell Kurds Turkey was not involved in Paris murders'

On Dec. 23, three Kurdish activists were murdered in the heart of Paris by a 69 year old Frenchman with a history of violence against foreigners. But many Kurds believe the suspect was put up to the job by Turkey's national intelligence agency the MIT. French authorities have launched an investigation but are treating the affair as a racist crime. The MIT has become increasingly powerful in recent years, commanding its own fleet of drones and targeting Kurdish militants and other "enemies of the...

French academic Fabrice Balanche says Turkish offensive against Syrian Kurds "a matter of time"

Turkey has been threatening since last month to launch a major ground invasion against the Kurds of northeast Syria. More than a month has passed and Russia and the United States have aired their objections to Turkey's plans. Turkey has yet to strike. Does this mean that it has caved to US and Russian pressure? Syria expert Fabrice Balanche thinks not.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-in...

American aid volunteer David Eubank says Syrian Kurds feel even more betrayed by US in wake of Turkey's most recent attacks

Turkey is threatening to mount a fresh ground assault against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria after a wave of airstrikes that left 11 civilians and numerous Kurdish fighters dead. US officials say they are trying to de-escalate the situation, but their Syrian Kurdish allies say Washington's response has been weak and is unlikely to stave off another Turkish offensive. David Eubank, founder of the Free Burma Rangers, a volunteer group that assists civilians in conflict z...

Swedish academic Paul Levin says Sweden's decision to cut off Syria's Kurds is a pyrrhic win for Turkey

Turkey has been piling pressure on Sweden to sever its ties with the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria. Sweden's new government has finally agreed to that condition and to resume arms exports to Ankara. The demands were made in exchange for Turkey's approval for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. Swedish academic Paul Levin believes that these concessions are a diplomatic win for Turkey but that Ankara's behavior has lost it many friends in his country.  See Privacy Poli...

Kurdish gains in Iraq and Syria drive Turkish attacks, says researcher Meghan Bodette

With the world's attention focused on Ukraine, Turkey has escalated its campaign against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) across its own borders in Iraq and Syria. Meghan Bodette, director of research at the Kurdish Peace Institute in Washington DC, tells Al-Monitor that Turkey is increasingly targeting activists, politicians and other civilian figures associated with the Kurdish political movement founded by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. This is because Turkey fears the legi...

Kurdish struggle critical linchpin of Iran protests, says BBC Persian correspondent Jiyar Gol

Protests in Iran are continuing despite a harsh crackdown by security forces. Human rights groups say that at least 201 people have died in the violence that was triggered by the death in custody of a Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini. The 22-year old was detained by the morality police for supposedly breaking rules on mandatory Islamic-style covering. BBC Persian Service correspondent Jiyar Gol says much of the violence is concentrated in the Kurdish heavy northwest provinces, where long running griev...

UAE, Gulf approaches to cryptocurrency, metaverse are testament to future planning, says Salim Essaid

Al-Monitor’s Business Correspondent Salim Essaid discusses Saudi Arabia’s investments in esports; trends in cryptocurrency markets in the Gulf; AI governance in the UAE; the region’s evolution as a hub in global climate policy, and Al-Monitor’s Pro coverage. Saudi esports success depends on local businesses, say industry players - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East Latest PRO Memo: NEOM’s ambitious concepts present funding, feasibility challenges for Saudi Ara...

Murder of Mahsa Amini sparks opposition interest, regime wrath for Iran's Kurdish movement says Kurdish expert Asso Hassan Zadeh

Nationwide protests sparked by the brutal killing of a 22 year old Iranian Kurdish woman by Iran's so-called morals police are continuing, marking one of the biggest challenges to the country's clerical regime in recent years. Protestors are demanding an end to 43 years of dictatorial rule. Much of the regime's wrath is being trained on people living in the country's long repressed Kurdish region and on Kurdish opposition groups across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan. Asso Hassan Zadeh who se...

Russia's Vladimir Putin wants fellow strongman Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan to remain in power says Russia expert Mark Galeotti

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the biggest challenge to his nearly two decades of uninterrupted rule as galloping inflation, a wilting national currency and resentment toward Syrian migrants sap his popularity — and one world leader is watching closely: Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Mark Galeotti, a London-based lecturer and writer on transnational crime in Russia and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence has studied Turkey's relations with Russia closely. He says that Pu...