¶ Podcast Introduction and Disclaimers
Matt Walsh and Nick Carter are partners at Castle Island Ventures. All views expressed by them or the guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Castle Island Ventures.
Positions and the assets discussed in this podcast. You should not treat any opinion expressed by anyone on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of their personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
Brought down by bad mortgage investments, Lehman, which has 25,000 employees.
The federal government loans American International Group AIG$85 billion This is a different kind of market and the federal-
The federal government is stepping in to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, the two mortgage giants that have been threatened by the housing crisis.
with a new round of quantitative
You print a couple trillion dollars and all of a sudden people start to worry. So, out of this worry, we have something called the
Bitcoin.
¶ Epstein Files, Crypto, and Influence
And I'm Nick Carter.
Another week, another no Castle Island mentions in the Epstein Files. So congratulations about that to you, to me, to
Good job, everyone. I'm honestly this sounds weird, but I'm feeling weirdly pleased about that, even though I already knew that we weren't in Are you getting this?
I mean you had to have googled your name almost immediately when you saw that that search was coming out, right? It's like I'm pretty sure I was never like in a big dinner with Jeffrey Epstein, but it's really good to know. Yeah.
Yeah, like it th it could have been the case that we had been on an email thread with him. Like that could have happened plausibly, right? Yeah. We were on a lot of email threads with a lot of email with a lot of people. And so it's really cause we knew that we've never corresponded with the guy. So why am I feeling relieved? I don't know. Uh
Uh there's a lot of people we knew in this industry that were in those
So many. And in some cases for relatively benign reasons. Like someone wanted to introduce them to Epstein and that's it, you know? And the trail goes cold. But then so there's some that are less benign.
There's kind of a yeah, there's a staging of this, right? Like if you were introduced to Jeffrey Epstein. And you didn't respond or you know, maybe maybe you did, maybe you had a call, that's the next level up. I feel like the culmination of it is like you're on the island partying with him and that's Yeah.
Yeah.
You're cancelled at that point.
Here is where I draw the line. Should you Google someone before you meet them? Probably yes. You sh I do that. I feel like you do that too, right? Just basic diligence. If you're gonna meet someone in person.
Of course, yeah, of course. And especially I think I would put it through Google and you'd be able to see that the guy was arrested. And wasn't he convicted in like two thousand nine?
Yeah, I mean anything post oh nine, by the way, that was on his wiki page. So that was very there was mainstream press reported on it. So the the i you know, if you had done a thirty second Google you would have known. So even meeting with him is kind of a little sketchy, but going to visit him Wouldn't you w do some basic diligence on this reclusive shady billionaire that lives on an island in the Caribbean? Like of course you would, right?
So you're either deliberately ignorant, enormously naive, or you know and you just choose to go anyway because you expect something out of it. Yeah. Whether it's financial or or other. So I have actually no sympathy for people that you know, visited him on the island and now want to plead ignorance. Like that's not an ex that's not an excuse.
And there's I mean that's what like there's a number of blockstream founders that were on that island. It's not great. Tentacles all over the MIT Bitcoin Digital Currency Initiative.
All over the DCI. And You know, Blockstream raised capital from him. They gave it back or whatever, it sold secondary. I don't know exactly how they got him off the cap table, but that's not good enough. You have to look into who is investing in your company, obviously. It's called reverse diligence. Or it's just called diligence. Investors diligence founders, founders should diligence investors.
Yeah, there was a speaking of that, there was a Grin S P V mention. So Jeremy Rubin it looks like was being funded by Epstein or doing SPVs with him. Um kind of unclear although there is a a check that is in the um Epstein files made out from Jeffrey Epstein to Jeremy Rubin. It says like quarterly payment.
There was some back and forth about a a company, I think it was Layer One, um, which I think turned into a Bitcoin mining company, but looks like maybe there was a Grin SPV type of angle there. And it looks like the underlying founders of that business We're pushing back and saying, you know, we're not gonna take money unless we know where it's coming from.
So it didn't get consummated that investment.
It didn't get consummated and then there's a back and forth with Epstein saying he didn't want to do it.
That one really takes me back as I remember that grin SPV. And Epstein made the right call or
He just took he knew Mimble Wimble was just not
Epstein looked into Gren and he's like, you know, this seems way too complicated and he was right.
Yeah. The wallet infrastructure.
Yeah. The interactive do you remember making transactions on Grand?
Yeah, I thought it was clever for a second. Like, oh actually this is completely unusable.
It involved emailing f like files back and forth.
Yeah, so it's surprising that didn't catch on.
I yeah, I don't know what the hell I was thinking. Because if you would have to sign a transaction, send it to the recipient. The recipient would have to countersign and send it back to you and you sign it for the third time or something.
It's like yeah, it's a future of money.
It was like a completely ludicrous. Blockchain UX ever devised.
It's up there. It's up there. Might it might be the worst investment.
Yeah. hell for uh exchanges that tried to support it.
But yeah, I mean a lot of Brock Purce in there. There's one email where he call Epstein called Brock Purce a little bitcoin elf. I mean, that's tough. Um Madars from Zcash on the island. I mean, it's not a great look for a lot of people.
I mean what you know what I've been thinking? Yes, of course. They if they had still been alive today, they would have just loved it. 'Cause it's the most nuclear conspiracy fodder against Blockstream of all time. But it doesn't get better fr from a conspiracy perspective.
I did see some of the posts about, okay, this shows that Epstein was trying to influence Bitcoin. It's like just'cause you donate to the MIT DCI it doesn't mean you're able to influence Bitcoin. That's kind of ridiculous.
Yeah, I mean he clearly was just making all sorts of investments all over the place. He didn't seem to really be s smart about crypto or bitcoin at all, as far as I can n or or interested even. And he made a tiny investment blockstream. He was involved with the DCI, but I think that was just buying clout and prestige.
I mean, Joey Edo is a kind of a big name in broader technology, so it's probably more of a prestige play.
It's incredible. He stepped down years and years ago. Like
Yeah.
In twenty twenty twenty or twenty nineteen, right?
When his name got first associated with that.
Yeah. But it took another six years for the rest of the fallout to hit. All these people in the emails probably thought they were good.
Yeah, and the files aren't all even out yet, so there's gonna be other waves of this. It's kinda i the whole thing is so confusing. It's like who was this guy? Like where's all this money coming from? There's so many unanswered questions.
Yeah, he was the most prolific guy in terms of meeting important cultural and tech like the most prolific guy ever, I think. Like how did he have the time to do all this?
The access here is just unbelievable. It's incredible.
I mean there's even one that caught my eye was like someone that was ha like hacking for pay his Wikipedia page to try and hide the mugshot. And they're like, yeah, you know, we managed to get a bunch of people booted from Wikipedia so we can lock down your page. It's like, how did he have so much power, this dude?
It's really it's puzzling. It's one of those things where we'll probably never know because there's intelligence agencies have to be
Yeah, and I know everyone thinks, you know, there was some kind of like sexual blackmail thing going on, which there obviously may well have been, but I think a more simple explanation for why so many people are in his thrall was simply They were willing to overlook his history of indiscretions because they thought they could get some money out of him. Like I think that it's that simple. Yeah. You know?
If he's a billionaire or seems like one, lives enormously lavishly, knows everyone And he's got an entry on his Wikipedia page that says he was convicted for some you know, soliciting underage prostitution or whatever it was. You'd be like, uh, yeah, what whatever, you know, he's gonna invest in my startup. Like, I need the money.
Unfortunately I think that's what people did. I mean which like they um they regret it now, that's for
But I think people thought it would never come out. Yeah. You know?
I think that's probably exactly right.
¶ Bitcoin Market Downturn and Bhutan Sale
On a sunnier note, Bitcoin is down about ten thousand dollars in the last twenty-four hours.
Yeah, we are we are in a bloodbath of a Bitcoin market right now and I'd say it's very unsettling to a lot of people because It the chart looks like there's just some forced selling here. I think it's very unclear where that's coming.
It's selling off and it's accelerating. It's not just selling off. It's really accelerating. I mean, we're at f sixty four thousand. A month ago we were at ninety seven thousand.
What's happening?
Yeah, I think we um I think it would be so much cleaner to know that there was like an FTX unwind going on right now, which there very well could be. Um it's just that we don't know. Just a lot of chatter about Binance on the timeline, but you know, a lot of noise. Who who knows?
I ha it's today's the Q four um announcement for MicroStrategy.
Yeah, that'll be good.
That's gonna be great.
Sad after hours.
Yep. In about an hour.
Just hodl. I mean the interesting thing was you did see earlier in the week, uh Namura came out and said that laser laser digital took a big loss. I think it was in the ballpark, a seventy five, eighty million dollar loss after the flash crash of ten ten. Obviously Galaxy reported losses, Novurgh's went. Yeah, caused a little stir.
So I think people are seeing that some of these more buttoned up regulated financial institutions took a big hit on 1010 and it would lead you to wonder, well, what happened to some of the completely Wild West venues and market makers? I think people are panicking a little bit that there's probably some bodies out there.
You know, the saddest piece of news that I saw today was Bhutan is selling. My favorite sovereign holder of Bitcoin is reportedly selling. And you just really hate to see that.
You hate to see that. I think Bhutan was uh They were also borrowing against their Bitcoin. Could be that they're selling'cause they got marginal.
Could be King Jigme. Jing Jigmay Ksar Nagmel Wangchuk is his full name. Personal friend of mine as an
Can you
You're not going to be able to do
Hãy subscribe cho kênh La La School Để không bỏ lỡ những video hấp dẫn
I didn't yeah, that was great. He gave me a bottle of Bhutanese whiskey. Do you know they make whiskey there? And um I just didn't see him doing you know, betraying us like this King Jigma.
I mean he probably reads your quantum pieces and he's probably thinking, Look, these Bitcoin developers just don't have a clear roadmap. Nick is right.
Uh, I I'm sure he has an opinion. King You know the thing about King Jigmay, he was the most relaxed and zen person I've ever met. Like the serenity just radiated from him.
It's a habit.
Place. He's not being Zen right now at all. He's being a pannequin, in fact. Yeah.
You just gotta turn off your computer, you know.
You think he of all people could be more chill? about this. He's like the no the top Buddhist almost.
It's um I mean do you wanna talk about the quantum thing? You wrote a new piece this week, uh Bitcoin developers are mostly not concerned about quantum risk. I guess I'll just lead with I don't think that's why we're selling off right now, but I think that is Uh that and the stability of the blo uh just post block reward subsidy are probably the two big
¶ Bitcoin Devs and Quantum Debate
Yeah, so I'll put this in the show notes. It's another uh another FUD missive on quantum. Uh it does what it says on the 10. The title is exactly what's in the article. So I was having a big argument with Matt Carollo, who is one of the most important Bitcoin developers, uh and he
He said that basically it was a fudster and I'm wrong and that they all the devs do care about quantum secretly. And I'm like, well I think you're wrong because I went and looked at everything they'd said about Quantum on the mailing list, and by and large they're not concerned. So I confirmed that by indexing everything every Bitcoin dev has ever said about quantum ever, and then I've just put it in this And had AI summarize it. So What I also did was I ranked I know I'm not allowed to do this.
This is totally verboten in Bitcoin Lane. I ranked all the Bitcoin developers by their importance.
Mm.
And so I use that to discern who actually matters. So it doesn't matter if the you know, thirty least important Bitcoin developers care about quantum. Uh what matters is what the top ten gatekeeper I call them high priests devs think. and I'll name them Peter Willie, Gr Greg Maxwell, Jonas Nick, Anthony Towns, Adam Back, Alex Morcos, Michael Ford, Marco Falk, Andrew Puelstra. Mara Vanderlaan uh and Peter Todd are the ones I identified subjectively as the most important.
Guess how many of those take is taking it seriously? One, uh, Jonas next.
Interesting.
So Peter Willie, so he was my S tier most important dev. He has posted about quantum. He said he's happy to see discussion in the area, but he also does not think there's a risk imminently at all. So he doesn't think that there's any need to act imminently.
I think it's an easy one.
It's kind of one of those situations where those folks would benefit tremendously from just spending like a day or two at a quantum conference or something, just to understand how fast
Yeah, I mean there has been one Bitcoin in quantum conference. Presidio Bitcoin had it, I think in July of last year. So there were I watched all the talks. There were some good talks. So there's been one. Yeah. But yeah, the thing is, here's the thing. People think the Bitcoin devs have kind some kind of like privileged epistemic position on this'cause they're Bitcoin devs which makes them like all knowing.
But they are very specialized in one thing, which is Bitcoin core development, which is a very niche thing. They're not physicists. That's okay. No one's asking them to be. But it all does mean that they don't actually have insight into the cutting edge what's happening in QC, which is a totally different domain. The cryptography part, it doesn't matter as much. All that matters is when are we gonna get a useful, cryptographically relevant quantum computer?
Ciao.
And and so I think people assume the Bitcoin devs have done their diligence on this. They haven't really.
Yeah, I think that's spot on. you know, the I would say the energy around fighting you on this uh is increasing. So maybe there's some positive externalities that more people will, you know, like go back to first principles and try
going on. Yeah, I mean just don't fight me. Just spend that energy fixing Bitcoin. Yeah. Obviously. Why fight me? I'm on your team.
Yeah, it's funny, it's like p the you would think that the perception is that you have this like huge short
Yeah, not at all. Not at all. I'm suffering just the reason I'm doing this, everyone's questioning my motives, which is very unfair in my opinion. The reason I'm doing this is because I care about Bitcoin. I want Bitcoin to survive. I don't want it to be fragile to you know, even long tail threads. I think we should have a paranoid attitude about Bitcoin development. If I wanted to destroy Bitcoin, I would become a core developer and stonewall all quantum research. That's what I would do.
Like uh in the three body problem. Yes. Where the sofons stop all scientific research. That's what's happening. The sofons control Bitcoin Core and they're stopping the research. If I wanted to save Bitcoin, I would do exactly what I'm doing right now, which is harassing the devs until they Get lift off the sofon veil and start to care about quantum.
I I think you might maybe you need to dust off your coding skills, you know, try to become a dev.
I would vibe code the solution.
Coat a a soft fork here.
Claude, fix Bitcoin. Make no mistake.
¶ Deals of the Week
Um, all right. Well let's move on to uh some of the deals of the week. Uh couple in the Castle Island portfolio, TRM Labs, uh blockchain forensic software company, they raised seventy million dollars in a round that was led by blockchain capital. With participation from Bessemer, Goldman, Toma Bravo, and CMTs. Congratulations to Esteban and team.
Next up we have Bitwise, the asset manager. They acquired Chorus One, an institutional staking provider. Congrats to both firms.
Yeah, really uh exciting move there by Bitwise as well. They had previously bought a test in, so I think they're way ahead of the game in terms of asset managers getting into the staking space. I think that's a yeah, that's a trend that will continue. Next one up is called Opinion Labs. This is a prediction market that raised$20 million from Hack VC, Jump, and Primitive Ventures.
Then bit of a theme this week. You have Bluff, an on chain betting app. They raised twenty one million from one KX, makers fund and others.
Then it's Kairos, which is a trading terminal for prediction markets, so three in a row prediction markets here. They raised 2.5 million for Mendresen Crypto and Geneva Trading.
Your favorite company, Prometheum, has raised twenty three million from a group of undisclosed investors over twenty twenty five.
Yeah, congrats to my my guys over at Prometheum three.
I don't know.
I looked at the form three three million dollars in sales commissions to uh two different investment banks.
Yeah. I'm just shocked that someone invested in the company. Yep.
I they did. Um we we won't dredge up all the Prometheum takes, but uh you know, these are the guys that were in concert with Gary Gensler trying to get Ethereum designated as a secure which didn't really work out well. Um next one up is Anchorage Digital. This is the crypto custodian and OCC chartered bank. They announced a$100 million strategic investment from Tether, valuing the company at$4.2 billion. Um congratulations to Nathan over at Anchor.
Yeah. Well done. Huge, huge race. and they're doing very well
¶ Kyle Samani's Departure and Web3 Outlook
Well, in news, uh there's not that much more to say about the sell off. Everything's going down, it's very sad. Uh what can you do, you know?
I think you just gotta you gotta not do anything. very clear that there's some people that are forced sellers. And if you're not a forced seller, then you should be feeling uh a little bit more at ease than if you were levered up.
There have been some big personnel announcements. in the last few months. A lot mostly people leaving the industry, frankly. Um a lot of turnover funds and most recently Kyle Simani, of course co founder of Multicoin, has stepped back after eight years at as managing partner multicoin.
Yeah, surprised at this. I mean, you gotta tip your cap to Kyle. I think one of the best runs um of anyone in the crypto venture.
Frankly in V C. Yeah. I wanna say. I mean you know, in a de in s under a decade. Yeah.
I think just uh, you know, crushed it on Solana. Um definitely a person that's always out there, not afraid to mix it up. Don't get the sense he's going anywhere from the industry, so it looks like he's gonna be spending more of his time with forward industries, the Solana digital asset treasury company. Um but definitely a kind of an end of an era there in terms of his involvement at multicoin.
Yeah, and um I think it kind of it actually does bookend a certain era in crypto history. You know, Kyle was always willing to consider the non-financial use cases of blockchain. He actually said on the way out he still likes deep in.
Yeah.
So he's not totally sick of crypto. I think it does mean something his departure, you know. I think it shows that certain kinds of investors are not that willing to sit around and invest in like quote unquote more boring financial infrastructure, stablecoin stuff and fintech. And now and now there's a this, you know, belief that Web3 is dead forever and that the non financial use cases for blockchains are dead and the more creative stuff is dead.
And uh I don't know if I actually fully agree with that. I think it I have a maybe a contrarian view on that, but I do think that this is this growing belief that it's just stable coins from here on out. And so yeah, you will see some managers leaving because they didn't sign up to do that.
I I think you'll see some turnover there. Yeah. I mean this idea of web three decentralized internet um applications that are fully decentralized, don't have a single point uh of failure. That didn't really happen, right? I mean, even something like a polymarket, which you'd say is probably by far the most successful application that uses a blockchain right now. It's not decentral.
Doesn't doesn't need to be on the blockchain at all. So Yeah.
Yeah. You know, I remember the first time um I I met Kyle, I reached out to him back in twenty seventeen, maybe early eighteen, um, when he wrote a really compelling piece about Augur. Um do you remember this?
Yeah.
Yeah, I tried to DCF on Augur. I thought it was just really ahead of its time in terms of um thinking about So yeah I think he's just always been one of these guys that's pushing the boundaries.
I had fought with Kyle but uh pretty much constantly over the really the last eight years. However, I have a huge amount of respect for him, not just because of the scoreboard, not just like oh scoreboard. But because he was willing to totally he was willing to trash the sacred cows of the crypto industry. Yes. Right? Like he would
say publicly he doesn't believe in Bitcoin as store value or Ethereum is architecturally broken, right? And then he would create these ideas that basically nobody else believed at the time. You know, they had an EOS pitch at one point, which obviously went pear shaped auger thing probably didn't work, but They did you know, they weren't apologetic about doing that stuff. And I that's what I respected about him. And
I've actually endeavored to be more like that myself. Just totally unapologetic. This is what I believe. This is why I think it. Maybe I will be wrong. But in the grand scheme, I'll have enough. Right ideas that I win. Yeah. So that's what I like about Kyle.
It's very true about the EOS thing. I mean, a lot of VCs get stung in a category and they just say, I'm never going back there. But the Solana thesis was the exact same thesis.
Then Solana was the successor to that. So credit to him, man. Yeah, you're exactly right. Most people give up after one failed bet on an idea.
¶ Ethereum's Layer 2 Roadmap Rethink
Yeah. So definitely some personnel changes there. The the other thing I wanted to talk about is Ethereum. So this is actually you know, it's an interesting thing in this industry because every time Vitalik puts out a blog Interesting things happen a few months later. Have you noticed this? Like he put he put out the original blog for the idea of union. Um AMMs. Metallic did.
And the was it the Bancor team that implemented it?
Well it was really Hayden Adams that implemented it, but Bancor was a They were wrong.
I think they were first. I wanna correct the record, though they were definitely first.
They're first but different architecture, right?
I think they just try to shoehorn their dumb token into the hole.
thing. Yeah, I think it was really, you know, Hayden that kind of took the the most direct interpretation of Vitalik's blog. And then a few years later he had a blog about Ethereum L twos and Then you saw this spawning of Arbitrum and Optimism and all these L twos coming up. Um he put out, he kind of made a wave some waves this week with a long tweet talking about the state of layer two blockchains on Ethereum, basically saying that they don't make sense anymore. Um and that
You know, potentially Ethereum should enshrine a roll-up within the protocol itself, which, you know, if you're an investor or an operator at an Ethereum layer two, is pretty bad news. You know, I think there's this realization that these L2s are cannibalistic.
But again, I'm gonna credit Vitalik for this because he staked his reputation in the future of ETH on the layer two model for how long now? How long? Yeah. Maybe the whole history of ETH? And him being willing to toss that away is a great sign of maturity.
It is. You know?'Cause he's yeah, he's gonna incinerate billions of dollars in market cap for these L twos and all these people who were mad at him. I actually saw tons of Ethereum developers being like, I'm sick of ETH, I'm done with it. Yeah. That's a great sign. That's actually a good sign. That shows You're being led by a guy with real conviction. As opposed to following this path.
to perdition, you know. We I think you and I probably agreed the L two architecture doesn't work for ETH. It's cannibalistic.
Bad UI.
siphons the value away. Yeah, it sucks to use. You end up with liquidity fragmentation. We've believed this for a very long time. But it's I think it's really brave of Vitalik to acknowledge the Even if the Solana people use it against him.
Yeah, well that's the thing is so if you kind of interpret that as okay, the that architectural decision was wrong. What is the right one? I think there are some options that are kind of off the table. You can't re architect Ethereum entirely, I don't think. Scale the base layer. I mean, that could be really tricky. So having just a native roll up, like maybe that works. Maybe who knows?
But I think some of the considerations are off the table because you can't just start from scratch. You get this existing blockchain that's been
Yeah, I'm biased. I think a high performance modern EVM chain is Is the answer.
Yeah, well it's like monad, right? Like we're
That's what I'm talking about, Mona. I'd say we own it, by the way, full disclosure.
Yeah. But like that's probably what you'd do if you're starting today, right? Like you
Yeah.
Start at the almost like the hardware level and and build it up, but I just don't think that's possible. I mean I could be wrong.
¶ Blockchain Challenges and Tether Dynamics
I was just telling you, I'm looking at all the major chains. I'm really struggling, you know, with who's doing well or who's like'cause like a Bitcoin quantum problem unsolved. Ethereum, Vitalik just trash their own roadmap in actually a pretty good position from a quantum perspective, but You know, people view it as antiquated, less performant. Solana just lost their number one booster. The number one guy.
They didn't lose him. I would sp I would push back on that. He's gonna be the CEO of Adat and
Doesn't count. He's gone. Doesn't count. Every blockchain is actually dealing with its own unique set of problems. Really big problems.
Um I don't know. Uh I think not all of them. I think there's a bunch of the like Canton is a example uh
Um canton's too good.
There's some of these corporate RWA type of use cases. uh don't see him impacted. Speaking of um Speaking of corporates, did you see the CME news? So Terry Duffy, which one of the more colorful characters in TradFi, he said that the company's exploring its own CME coin and that it could potentially be used on decentralized What in the world is that?
Is that does that mean it's stable coin?
I don't know. I guess it's like seems like it could be a stable coin. Um I don't know. Seems like the type of thing you'd see you'd say once you saw that like Fidelity issued a stable coin, you're like, Oh man, yeah, we could totally do the stable coin.
Yeah, that's a little bit strange. Uh I'll also Aaron stable coins, the FT reported that Tether are looking to raise maybe just five billion instead of the fifteen to twenty billion that they were rumored to be raising last year.
You seen the tether is um kind of the the peg on tether is kind of interesting. I think it probably reflects a lot of people selling out of tether, but it hasn't been as stable as I would have expected over the past week.
My interpretation of this from traders that are much smarter than me is that it's going from USDT And people can't redeem directly'cause it's hard to get a redemption account with tether. So they sell it on the market instead of redeeming. Because if you redeem it, you get it at par. Redemption's par. I think it was actually ten basis point cost maybe associated. But anyway. They're going USDT, USDC and back in a fiat.
Interesting.
So that's why we see this persistent discount. Because apparently it's easier to get a USDC redemption than it is tele redemption. So that would explain it.
¶ Market Structure Bill and Banking Tensions
Yeah, that would definitely explain it. Um Let's talk about the market structure bill here. Um bunch of back and forth this week. I think we're moving in the right direction here. So there's a meeting with at the White House with the bank lobby and the crypto lobby on Monday. Um, and it sounds like the message was figure this out on a compromise by the end of February in terms of this yield issue.
Later in the week, I guess it was yesterday, it seems like there was a productive meeting with Senate Democrats. Some of the quotes coming out of that say that it was the most productive meeting that Senate Democrats have been involved with. The polymarket odds of a bill were up to like seventy one, seventy-two percent yesterday. They're back down a little bit, but um some of the reporting said that Schumer himself went to that meeting and there was some mention about Fair Shake actually.
And, you know, that they don't want to go into the midterms ha with this as an issue, that this huge, you know, war chest basically can just be pointed at vulnerable Democrats that they'd rather have it off the table. Um Mark Warner, the I believe he's the senator from Virginia, um, in questioning Scott Bessent uh today, the Treasury Secretary, actually talked about market structure and said, look, we've been hard at work at this. We could use your help.
So I I think that this is moving along actually.
I hope Fair Shake is walking around the halls of Congress with a huge oversight s checkbook just looking menacingly at the senators as they pass them.
Sounds like that's kinda the vibe. Sounds like that's a vibe. Meanwhile, the uh Wall Street Journal had a piece earlier in the week and it's kind of interesting. I wonder who leaked this. Basically that all the bank CEOs were antagonistic to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong at Davos last week and that um I think Jamie Diamond had some exploits. Directed at
But that that's actually the sickest headline they could have written about Brian Armstrong, right?
It's it's pretty good for Brian.
So strong.
I think, right?
It's super cyberpunk. And it's like, yeah, Coinbase, yeah, we're fighting the power. The banks hate us. It'd be much worse if it's like, Yeah, Brian Armstrong was chummy with the bankers. It's like uh it's like the last scene in uh Animal Farm. Yeah. You know? So it's actually great for Coinbase, I think, and Brian that the bankers hate him. He and that he gets to play the outsider role, the underdog. There's that's great.
There's some quote from I think it was Brian Moynihan at Bank of America around just telling Coinbase to go become a bank. It's like well I'm not a bank. Like what I'm trying to do here is is not lend fractional. Like i I think these guys
I thought that was idi that was idiotic from Moynihan.
are you talking about?
This is a crypto exchange and custodian. They're nothing like a bank. Yeah. You can't just'cause they like accept deposits or small D deposit that's um, they're not a bank, okay? I got it twist.
¶ Sports Oddities and NFL Hall of Fame
Yeah, really, really don't understand that um whatsoever. Um all right, most important issue of the week. We were completely shafted again as an organization at the New England Patriots.
I knew this We live in trying times. The most important issue is the Hall of Fame boat.
So last week it came out that Bill Belichick will not be in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, which is This week we found out that the owner of the New England Patriots, and keep in mind there's plenty of owners that are in the Hall of Fame, we happen to have the owner that has the most Super Bowl wins of any owner in the history of the NFL.
Turn the organization around. This thing was this organization was about to be moved to St. Louis when this guy bought the c uh the team, kept it here, built a new stadium, just win after win after win. And now he was he has been denied it.
It's okay.
One thing that I find very strange about American sports is this whole thing that you can move a team to a different city. Like well, why would anybody in the new city be a fan of the team? Like that's a foreign team. Yeah. In the UK, the in the soccer and Premier League or like the football league generally, if there was one attempt to move a team once And people are still mad about it. It was Wimbledon. It's a team called MK Dawn.
And it was this huge scandal and no one ever tried to do it again.
Yeah.
'Cause a team is like part of the neighborhood. That's like the fabric of the you know. But in America it's like oh the LA Charger, like the the they're like moving around all the time. What is that? Yeah.
I mean it's it's devastating when they leave a city, right? Look at um Seattle supersonics became the Oklahoma Thunder and those poor people up in Seattle have just not had a team since that.
It's just so weird though, like How what's the thought process for you as a resident of a city becoming a fan of some kind of third party team that's just shipped in in the middle of the night? Well I think how do you do how do you justify that to yourself?
I think the way you justify it is all these cities, I mean, a lot of them want teams and they w they would have fan bases that they kinda have to build up from scratch and there's so m there's only so many teams on the board. Um you think about
Okay, so the the San Diego Charger They moved to LA. There's already a team in LA.
That one doesn't make a ton of sense.
Who
But who's the marginal?
fan. Yeah. Who's the marginal fan?
That's tough. That's tough. But you can get it with you know with someone moves a team to like Oklahoma City, like that kind of Kinda hard for um the team the those fans of the team when they leave though. That's just
Yeah. Then what? Yeah, now you have to be a fan of the team ten cities over. That just that sucks.
You know the Atlanta Braves used to be the boss.
Really?
Boston used to have two two MLB teams.
Here's one other question about the NFL. Why does Green Bay have a team? I've never heard of the city of Green B- Is it even a city? Outside of the NFL context, never heard of it.
That I think they were uh they're just one of the original teams, yeah. I don't know.
Is it a town? Is what is it? Does anyone live there?
I've never been there.
It's like Trenton, New Jersey having a football team.
Yeah, that's probably right. Yeah, it it should be more of like a double A baseball
Yeah, it's weird. It's really strange. Okay, so since we're on the topic, Polymarket says the line is sixty nine thirty two. That doesn't add up to a hundred. That doesn't make sense on the NFL, on the Super Bowl. What do you think? Correctly priced?
I love being an underdog in a Super Bowl. I think it's just the best. And I really I really like this team. I mean, Seattle is really Really good. But no, you gotta hand it to the New York Jets football organization. They really know how to build quarterbacks and the Sam Darnold guy. The Jets trained him up.
¶ Epstein Files: Continued Global Fallout
Mas eu acho que...
So I forgot to cover this in our Epstein section, but the fallout from these emails has been incredible. Yes. Just um like Sam Bankman Fried times a hundred. Like heads of state are losing their jobs over this guy. Just like can you think of another person whose emails, if they were leaked, could have a f comparable effect? I can't think of anyone.
I d no. I mean this guy's like the fixer of all fixers. I it's just incredible. Yeah.
So Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, is now embroiled in an Epstein scandal. Because he appointed as the ambassador to the US, this guy that was t totally in cahoots with Epstein. And then to make matters worse, he leaked British state secrets to Epstein for him to trade on them.
Very nice. So it's gonna take down head of state. Um there was a CEO of a big law firm that went down this week. I mean, people are gonna be dropping.
All over the map. Peter Atia the most famous health guy, basically. Like he's done. So incredible.
You gotta hand it to um Gavin and Dreeson. So they reached uh Epstein reached out to him and he just said, No, I'm busy. No explanation.
Like if I was busy, I would just not answer the email, right? I don't know. I what's even the point of setting that email?
Guess Gavin is just like, I want to be very clear that I'm not meeting with you. Yeah. And the way that he got Gavin's email was from Jason Kalkan.
So let it be known to the other Bitcoin developers that did take the meeting, you could have just said no. Yeah, coulda said no.
All right, on that note I think we have to call it. Um who are you rooting for in the Super Bowl? What's your prediction?
I think the Seahawks this is my boring prediction is I think the Seahawks won. I don't really not a fan of either team. I'm very disappointed that it's two historically Superbowl present teams that are in the Super Bowl.
I'm a little insulted. I'd probably be rooting for your uh Washington.
Why you would never root for the committee what, if we made it to the Super Bowl somehow?
Well I guess it will it we'll never have to worry about that. But go pats. Everybody have a safe and healthy weekend.
