Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.
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Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s lever...
Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points , Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores wh...
Eric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why markets remain dangerously complacent despite massive global inventory drawdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and the potential for structurally higher oil prices well into the future. The conversation dives into why energy equities still appear deeply undervalued, how Canadian oil producers could ben...
Maritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She explains how Iran’s shadow fleet has continued operating under the radar while broader tanker traffic has collapsed, with U.S. enforcement sharply curtailing exports and reshaping global supply routes. The conversation dives into the complexities of tracking “dark” vessels, the role of satellite inte...
Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could ex...
Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timin...
John Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlike physical gold funds, USO provides investors with access to the oil market by holding futures contracts, effectively "equitizing" a complex asset class that would otherwise require managing margin calls and rolling positions. A key distinction Love makes is that USO is designed to track the daily e...
Karim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets are "grievously underpricing" the current physical loss of 12 to 13 million barrels per day, a shock Fawaz describes as orders of magnitude more severe than any recent crisis. Unlike the managed demand destruction of the pandemic, this unmanaged supply loss forces a chaotic rebalancing that threaten...
Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group joins Rory to discuss the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine following a provocative social media post by President Trump regarding the security of the Persian Gulf. The discussion centers on the 1980 policy that committed the U.S. to using military force to protect the flow of oil, a guarantee that now appears to be evaporating as Trump signals an end to U.S. protection for global energy routes. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over a month and oil price...
This episode delves into the unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz, analyzing the strategic deadlock between the US aim to degrade Iranian military capacity and Iran's focus on regime survival by increasing the cost of intervention. It explores the catastrophic economic implications, recent infrastructure attacks, and a mystifying price disconnect in oil markets. The discussion also touches on the White House's desperate policy options and the inherent risks preventing commercial shipping from transiting the "shooting gallery" Strait.
Nader Itayim of Argus Media joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the unprecedented escalation of the direct conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States and its devastating impact on global energy markets. The discussion explores how Iran has transitioned from decades of "proxy warfare" to what leadership now describes as an "existential war," abandoning its traditional "strategic patience" in favor of lashing out to create maximum economic chaos. Itayim details the severe physical...
In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the...
Josef Schachter details the ongoing energy supercycle, emphasizing underinvestment and global demand. He covers geopolitical impacts on oil prices, limitations of OPEC production, and the debate around US shale's peak. Schachter also explores Canada's significant production potential, tempered by critical takeaway capacity issues and the need for political alignment on infrastructure, alongside the attractive investment landscape in Canadian energy equities.
In this episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia’s industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potent...
Following Nicolás Maduro's capture, this episode analyzes the new "remote control" era of Venezuelan governance under interim president Delcy Rodríguez, a pragmatist navigating intense US pressure. The discussion details the immediate market impact of rerouting 30-50 million barrels of stored oil from China to the U.S. Gulf Coast, examining both the surprising pragmatism in fund disbursement and the complex long-term challenges of rebuilding the industry, which requires up to $100 billion and a decade of stability.
This episode features Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer, who meticulously explains wireline operations, from perforating guns in horizontal wells to managing complex downhole tools. He details significant technological advancements, the impact of industry consolidation on independent firms like Underdog Wireline, and shares insights into market sentiment and the importance of service quality amidst competitive pricing pressures.
The Oil Ground Up podcast welcomes Doug Terreson to parse the dynamics of the chaotic and confusing current oil market. Terreson details his illustrious career path, which included drilling oil wells for Schlumberger, managing one of the world’s largest energy funds on the buy side at Putnam, and managing the global energy group at Morgan Stanley and Evercore for 30 years. He explains how his research note, " The Era of the Super Major " (1998), spurred the industry's most significant consolidat...
The Trump Administration has gotten increasingly aggressive in its relations with Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela, accumulating a historic volume of US military capability in the Caribbean and cancelling a raft of oil sector operating licenses. Whether or not this leads to outright regime change, it seems like we are on the precipice of something major occurring on Venezuela. What could all of this mean for Venezuela's chronically challenged but stupendously high potential oil industry...
Rory Johnston and Kevin Birn discuss the Canadian oil sands, tracing its evolution from early challenges to a global industry. They explore its unique cost structure, resilience in low-price environments, and past pipeline bottlenecks, including the 2018 crisis. The conversation also covers the industry's significant strides in reducing carbon intensity through optimization and the complex interplay of federal and provincial emissions caps, particularly regarding the role and cost of carbon capture and storage in future growth.
Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand f...
Rory Johnston and Robert Connors delve into the historical sweep of oil market cycles, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria) and positioning the current market in an early "doubt wave" phase. They explore Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production set a higher floor for future oil prices, supported by granular labor data indicating a "frozen" oil and gas labor market. The discussion also covers macro forces like populism, currency debasement, and corporate incentives driving a long-term oil bull market amidst short-term gluts.
In this episode of Oil Ground Up, host Rory sits down with June Goh, Senior Market Analyst at Sparta, for a masterclass on the physical oil market. With a background as a chemical engineer and years of experience in scheduling, trading, and strategy at Shell's Pulau Bukong refinery, June offers a uniquely nuanced and holistic understanding of how refineries operate and drive global commodity flows.June begins by demystifying commodity arbitrage, the pricing differences that physical and paper tr...
Today we speak with Dr. Ilia Bouchouev, former President of Koch Global Partners where he launched and managed the global derivatives trading business for over 20 years. Traditional supply and demand models no longer explain the oil market, where the correlation between fundamentals and price is now close to zero. Ilia leads Rory into a narrative about his "virtual barrel" thesis, exploring why the market now trades 60 times more oil on paper than is physically consumed daily. Ilia introduces a ...
ory dives deep into energy risk management with industry veteran Steve Sinos. Steve, with over 20 years of experience, explains how energy derivatives—from Futures and Options to CFDs—are crucial risk management tools designed to shift, not destroy, market risk. The episode frames this through the practical scenario of advising a regional airline on hedging its largest cost: fuel price exposure. Steve details the non-mechanical, iterative process of understanding controllable versus unknowable f...
Rory speaks with Bloomberg expert Brett Gibbs about the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and its profound impact across energy, agriculture, and gasoline prices. Brett highlights the market's policy-driven nature, contrasting stable ethanol volumes with the rapid, four-fold growth of renewable diesel, which now significantly displaces petroleum diesel. A key distinction is renewable diesel's chemical identity to petroleum diesel, allowing one-for-one substitution and no blend limits, unlike biodies...
In this conversation, Brandon Myers from Novi Labs discusses the intricacies of shale production, focusing on type curves, price sensitivity, and the evolving landscape of the US shale patch. He emphasizes the importance of understanding breakeven metrics and the impact of inventory dynamics on future production. The discussion also highlights the role of efficiency gains and technological advancements in drilling, as well as the influence of external factors such as tariffs and regulatory chang...
In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory Johnston delves into the complex dynamics of US-India trade relations, focusing on the recent imposition of secondary tariffs by President Trump in response to India's continued purchases of Russian oil. Joined by Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, the discussion explores whether these tariffs are a strategic move in broader trade negotiations or a direct response to the India-Russia oil trade. Tune in to understand the implic...
In this episode of "Oil Ground Up," host Rory Johnston delves into the dynamic landscape of the Western Canadian oil and gas sector with expert insights from Michael Spyker, Principal Analyst at HTM Energy Partners. The discussion navigates the complexities of the non-oil sands sector, focusing on the Montney and Duvernay plays, and explores the strategic implications of Strathcona's bid for MEG Energy. Tune in to understand the evolving trends, challenges, and opportunities within this pivotal ...
In this episode of "Oil Ground Up," host Rory engages with Rachel Ziemba, an expert in sanctions policy, to unravel the intricate web of economic statecraft. They delve into the complexities of sanctions regimes under the Trump administration, exploring their impact on global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics. From the bifurcation of the oil market to the shadow fleet's role in circumventing sanctions, Rachel provides insights into the evolving landscape of economic statecraft. Tune in to un...
In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory Johnston is joined by Arnab Datta, Managing Director of Policy Implementation at Employ America, to delve into the intricate history and evolving role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Discover why the SPR was established in the aftermath of the Arab oil embargo, how it has been managed through various administrations, and the pivotal changes it underwent during the 2022 oil price crisis under President Biden. Explore the polit...
