Oil and Gas This Week | May 21 2025 | Ep 379

You're listening to the Oily Gas This Week podcast with Mark LaCour and Paige Wilson. This is the show for busy oil pros who quickly want to keep their finger on the pulse of the industry. You're listening to the Oil and Gas This Week podcast brought to you by Cognite, AI for the industry. This is the show for busy oil pros who want to quickly keep their finger on the pulse of the industry. Thanks for joining us for episode 379. Please save the day for impact Cognite.

annual user conference happening October 13th through the 16th here in Houston, Texas. Paige? Yeah. We're someplace different today. Yeah, we're really cozy today. We are recording live from the Petroleum Accountant Society of Houston. annual picnic event at St. Arnold's Brewery. And thanks to Roger for reaching out and inviting us.

Yeah, Roger, I appreciate it. It's a good group of people here. Shame on St. Arnold's for not letting us set up our PA system, but that is a different story. You know what else is a different story? What is that? We have a valedictorian in high school that listens to us. Oh, that's awesome. Yeah. So big shout out to Scott. He reached out to me on X and his daughter, Ruea. Ruea. Ruea.

Rooyah is an avid listener to OGGN. I thought you'd like to know she was named valedictorian of her senior high school class at Sacred Heart in Yonkers, New York. So Rooyah, congratulations to being named valedictorian. Thank you for listening to the show. And I got a feeling your dad probably...

made you listen to it the first time, but I appreciate it. And because you're so proud of you, Roya, we're actually sending you some OGG and merch free of charge. Once again, wear it with pride in your high school. Looking forward to your future success. Awesome. We have a review.

Yeah, it's not a great review. It's a two star. And it says optimism. Long time listener of the show. A lot of topics Mark covers are great, but I have to take issue with the comments last episode about what he thinks is optimism in the oil and gas business. This is out of touch. There is no optimism. As much as you might not want to admit in this administration is tearing apart the economy and oil business with it. Just read the comments from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. No one is optimistic.

Layoffs have started. Rick Hounds are stalling. There is nothing but fear and uncertainty in the oil patch. From Cantu Techs here in the United States. Hey, Cantu Tech. So first thing, my heart goes out to you. Sounds like you're in the upstream side of the industry. Traditionally, when the price accrued stalls, the upstream and the service industry suffers.

A couple of things. Our last episode when I made that comment, right after I made the comment about the optimism, which I still believe is 100% true, I also talked about the layoffs. It's a hard thing to put together. The other thing, Cantutex, is the upstream part.

of the industry is not the oil and gas industry it's part of it right now in the low crude price environment downstream is on fire their raw feedstock is crude natural gas they're paying less for it right now you're still paying the same amount for your car tires your soccer balls

highline shirts, your duct tape. So part of the industry is booming right now in this low crude price environment. The other thing can't do techs is there really is a ton of optimism. And I feel for you. My heart goes out to you if you don't see it at the front line where the layoffs are happening.

there's not optimism people are worried their heads down they're worried about their future their finances everything else but the industry as a whole is really booming right now and it's a long-term success story which we're going to cover in these news articles so once again can't do text optimism there i'm sorry that you're not experiencing whatever's going on in your world just hold on i promise you things will come back and everything will be fine

Let's get the news stories. All right. First up, Aramco signs PACs worth up to $90 billion with U.S. companies. All right, Cantu Techs, I'm not going to say C, but C. Literally $90 billion worth of investment in the U.S. by Saudi Aramco. This is a direct result of our current presidential administration. Saudi Aramco is going to put $90 billion. They already signed 34 memorandums of understanding or MOUs. They're looking really hard to invest the money in liquidified natural gas.

fuels and chemicals, petrochemicals and AI. Now, this amount of money that's going to be infused in our country and the companies that work here is going to be a boom. Now, remember, this is not government hands out. These are not these are not subsidies in where the government.

It's writing you a check. This is literally a very large oil and gas giant company figuring out that it makes fiscal sense to invest more money in the oil and gas companies that support the oil and gas industry global. I love this. One of the things they're investing is the Motiva.

right here in the home state of Texas, which is one of the largest fuel-making refineries in the world. Once again, to my point, downstream is on fire motive is killing it right now with petrochemicals especially same way with the fuel refineries are killing right now with jet fuel there's a lot of positivity a lot of optimism here

Just unfortunately not with the super majors and on the upstream side of the service industries. What's next? Next up, we have the U.S. Energy Department launching largest deregulatory effort in history.

I don't just want to say yeah. I want to say hell yeah. About time to roll back all these things that have gotten our industry's way. The last couple of administrations that we've lived through have put in a lot of stuff, basically roadblocks. Those roadblocks artificially increase the price of hydrocarbons.

gas, which then increased everybody's energy bill. But it also increased things like the cost of getting those brown boxes delivered from Amazon, the cost of food, the cost of keeping your house warm or cold, depending on what part of the country and what season is. So there's over 47. actions that they're deregulating or scaling back from the Department of Energy happening right now while we're speaking to this.

I'm almost 60 years old. I have never seen our federal government move this fast to do things that it needs to do. This would have normally taken years if we could have even gotten approved. And in one swell swoop, the Trump administration has put together a team that... They're literally working around the clock to remove these barriers. And let me be very careful here. This is not anything that's going to hurt the environment. In fact, a lot of these regulations and tariffs are putting away...

slowed our responses to environmental actions. This has just taken all the roadblocks out of our way so we could do what we do best, which is produce cheap, reliable, abundant energy, not just here in the U.S., but for the world. And they delivered results just over 110 days. That's amazing. Big high five to Chris Wright. Yeah, big high five to Chris, who we've had on the show before. What's next?

U.S. crude production may decline in 2026 amid slowing global demand S&P global sales. Yeah, so I about half the time agree with S&P Global and about half the time I don't. This time I'm not agreeing with them. They're basically saying that world demands only grow about 750,000 barrels per day or equivalent in the rest of 2025. I think that's wrong.

going to be well over a million barrels per day or equivalent. The growth will continue. Now, we're in this low crude price environment. We're in this low crude price environment because it has been orchestrated. It's not the market. per se. It's our politicians trying to keep a price accrued low so that we can force Russia to the negotiation table with Ukraine. Regardless of what Putin says he's going to do, he will have no choice. The moment you start drying up countries' finances,

start paying attention to stuff. I'm willing to go through this low crude price environment, which will happen for the rest of this quarter, probably for the next quarter, and it should start going up by the end of this year, just to get the conflict in Ukraine and Russia worked out. And there's much bigger geopolitical implications.

of Russia and Ukraine coming to some type of peace agreement. We're also having some major things happen in the Middle East, which we'll get to in a minute. But S&P, I disagree with you. I think gold demands go rise about a million barrels per day. And by the time we hit mid-2026, I think that'll be... about a million and a half barrels per day. The world's population is growing. Our demand for energy is growing. That demand and that growth will not stop.

The question is, how much will that growth be? Is it going to be 2% or 10%? This is me just disagreeing with S&P. Love you to death, S&P 500. Just I'd slightly disagree with you on this one.

All right. Next up, jobs held steady in April amid broad economic shifts, says Energy Workforce. We've all heard about all the layoffs. It started with the super majors. Most of that has about finished. It's affecting some of the service companies right now, especially ones that touch upstream. It is not affecting the midstream industry, which is pipeline, rail, storage, anything that moves.

is midstream, and it doesn't affect downstream, which is where you take those hydrocarbons and turn it to products you can sell. It's only affecting a portion of our industry. However, how cool is it that even though we've had these layoffs, that we've added enough jobs that basically the workforce and oil and gas has remained safe?

steady. I think that's amazing. And that's a sign of things to come. These layoffs that are happening. And once again, I don't like to hear anybody losing their job. My heart goes out to any and all of you that are suffering through this and have been laid off. But this is a different set of layoffs. I've said this a couple of episodes before. These layoffs are a longer term.

after effect of the growth and the use of technology in our industry. And when we're finished with this, when we get through this right sizing, our industry is going to be more nimble, it's going to be faster, it's going to be higher tech, and that is just good for everybody. Plus, it adds jobs that normally wouldn't be here.

How cool is it if you're a 19-year-old young man or woman and you fly drones and all your parents made fun of you because you're wasting your time flying drones, that you can get a job right now with Shell making $150,000 and you're flying a drone? Not that long ago, you would have never gotten a job flying a drone, right?

And then with the advent of AI, things with measurement while drilling, the fact that we now have connectivity a lot of times with things like Starlink, the world is just changing oil, I guess. And it's changing for the better. And the jobs that we're going to generate are going to change for the better.

I need to rethink my career then. Podcasting. Look, we have a group of people, a group of accounts sitting around us right now in a beer garden, listening to us ramble on about the news. Not that long ago, this would have never happened. Even podcasting has.

taken a place, a huge place in the oil and gas industry as content, as a way for people to learn about the industry. You know this page and this group that's sitting around may not know this. We have governments that listen to us. Our own U.S. government listens to us. The Roman State Economic Board listens to us.

We have CEOs of major companies listen to us and they all listen to us for the same reason that they don't get good information from the regular news anymore. Things like podcasts, YouTube is now taking market share away from the regular news. And that is actually a good thing. Let's get to. truth out there in a way that doesn't mean you have to be a multi-billion dollar company just to be able to get the word out there. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Oh, look, next up.

It's her favorite company. ExxonMobil gets one step closer for a new 10 billion Gulf Coast facility. I wonder who put this together. Quit giving me grief about ExxonMobil. I sincerely think they're the best project management and engineering company on the planet, bar none. I don't like doing business with them. I know you say that all the time, but still they end up in here every time.

Well, they're doing some amazing stuff, and this is a news show. And so when they make the news, I'm going to talk about it. I'm not an ExxonMobil fanboy, no matter what that guy said from – Yeah, I forget. Yeah, whatever. Basically, what is going on? ExxonMobil is in the preliminary stages of building a plastics plant to basically produce ethylene pellets. Of course, ethylene is produced from natural gas and ethylene crackers. The process and the facility turned out.

Natural gas and plastics. Without plastics, modern life would not be here. We wouldn't be able to do it. They're going to be pulling gas from the Permian, hence all their plays in the Permian. They knew they needed the feedstock for this to produce up to 3 million tons of polyethylene pellets annually. And most of that is going to be...

export it to the rest of the world, especially Asia. Now, this is going to be one of the largest facilities that does this in the world, but this isn't ExxonMobil's first venture on the Gulf Coast. I do have a little bit of an issue. This is in BIC Magazine. I love BIC. Come on, guys.

call ExxonMobil in this a private company. ExxonMobil as a shareholder is not a private company. It's a public company. So you're okay. One little typo, no big deal. But this facility is also going to be added to the repertoire of their petrochemical plants. But Beaumont, Baytown, Gregory.

And this is coming on the heels of the increase in U.S. plastics production. All this is being driven by inexpensive gas from all the shell plays, specifically Texas. So if you're listening to this and you're drinking from a plastic beer cup like I'm doing right now, somewhere in the world. You can thank the oil and gas industry for making that plastic so you can actually have your beer in a plastic cup. But it goes way more than plastic cups. If you had a heart stint put in.

Thank you for still being here and listening. That heart sin is made from plastics, made from this exact type of facility. So this is a great thing. This is jobs. This is a ton of jobs actually building this facility. It's a ton of jobs to run it. It's prosperity for the people that work there.

It's allowing the U.S. to export their natural gas in a product that other countries need, in this case, plastics. All right. Next up, Marathon Outline's 2025 capital spending plan across refining and midstream segments. Yeah, so they're going to invest $100 million. That's $100 million in the rest of this year to update some of their facilities. One of the things they're doing that's interesting is they're actually addressing the regulatory requirements for emissions in California.

We told California, we're out of here. It's not worth the time and money to try to compete in California. So they're shutting down refineries. Not so sure if Marathon Petroleum is wanting to stay long term or do they see this as a competitive differentiator since so many of their competitors have. pulled out of California, can they now stay and make money? And I suspect geopolitically that they're going to leverage this and go back to the state of California and go, look.

You've driven every other refinery out of the state because of your rules, your regulations, your tariffs. We're one of the few that are still invested here in this local community. We're outside of Los Angeles. You need to work with us. Watch and see if they don't pull that lever, which is exactly what I would do in their situation.

the money in their Galveston Bay refiner in Texas City. They're adding another 900,000 barrels per day of high-pressure distillate. Once again, petrochemicals are killing or they wouldn't be invested money doing this. And they're investing in the midstream second, the pipelines, specifically to bring natural gas. Permian to the Gulf Coast, just like Exxon Mobil's doing it. That, of course, will go for LNG export. This is amazing.

Typically, Marathon capital budgets a little bit more than this. But remember, we're talking about what they're going to spend the rest of 2025. We're halfway through the year. So if you do the math and turn that $100 million to $200 million, that's about what they normally invest, which then tells me that Marathon sees.

The advantages of investing CapEx for future growth, for future profits. Love it. All right. Next up, Phillips 66 announces agreement to divest majority interest in Germany and Austria retail marketing business.

Basically, Phillips 66 says, you know what? We're getting rid of our retail gas stations. The entire oil and gas industry in the U.S. a long time ago figured that was the least valuable part of the value chain. When you go to an Exxon gas station in the U.S. or a Chevron or Texaco or...

or Shell or BP, they don't own that. That's a jobber that owns it. Somebody has to meet the marketing requirements to be able to use the BP or the Exxon logo on the gas station, but Exxon has no investment in those gas stations. Need the Shell and Chevron. However, Marathon and Valero still do own their retail gas stations, and I think that's a differentiator with them. What's happening now is Phillips 66 is realizing in Germany that the retail fuel business isn't.

worth staying into. So they're exiting it. They're selling their jet branded sites to an investment group and they're just basically walking away from the retail fuel station in Germany. The last time I checked in Europe, most of their passenger vehicles run on diesel, not gasoline.

But last time I checked, to fill up your vehicle in Germany, and remember, in Europe, their cars are much smaller than ours. They don't drive F350 four-door four-wheel drives like we do. But typically here, for me to fill up my car is about $50, and I run premium. In Germany, to fill up a smaller vehicle,

smaller car, smaller gas tank was around $90 US. Just the cost of fuel over there is ridiculous, but the margins are almost non-existent. Phillips is walking away from that. I think that's a smart move. They can take that time and effort and invest in other stuff that makes their companies more profitable.

All right, next up, oil drops 2% on expectations for U.S.-Iran nuclear. Literally, our current president administration is in the air right now coming back from Iran. This is something that we've been talking about for a year. The U.S. and Europe has applied sanctions to Iran, not want them to develop a nuclear weapons program, which they swear they're not doing, but they also won't let.

the third party inspectors in the sea, we have been leveraging them and we basically have cut off their lifeblood, their economy by limiting severely. oil exports out of Iran. Looks like our current administrations have made a deal. If that's true, the market is responding right now saying we think the deal's being made because that deal's being made. We'll think more Iran oil will come on market, which will increase supply, which will lower the cost.

And this is all timed with the same thing that OPEC is working with our current administration to keep the price accrued low. This would be another blow to the economy of Russia to force them to the negotiation table. And quite frankly, I could go off on Iran.

I'm not. This is good for the people there. If we can get rid of the corruption in Iran, if we can get peace in that part of the Middle East, if we can start bringing their oil to market and help them rebuild the infrastructure, they're going to start looking at the U.S. as an ally instead of an enemy, which is what.

do you want? I don't like war. I don't like people dying. I don't like people getting hurt. I don't like people losing their homes. I don't know many people that do. And this has been going on for way too long. This is a step in the right direction. I love that our current administration went over there and worked off this and negotiated. terms that it looks like Iran's agreeing to, fingers crossed, we will keep an eye on this. All right. Next up, EU's plan to phase out Russian gas by end 2027.

Russia, historically, ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, even before the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia made its money by selling hydrocarbons to Europe. In fact, without the Russian gas, many winters, a lot of people would have froze to death, which is crazy to think about in a modern world.

But since the conflict with Ukraine, a lot of countries, including a lot of European countries, especially the UK, has tried to end their dependency on Russian gas. The only reason they're actually able to put down in law that they're going to end all buying of Russian natural gas by 2020. is us and our ability to take cheap natural gas.

turn it to a liquid, ship it across the world, and offload it in Europe to supply their natural gas needs. This is great. This is another lever to be pulled to get Russia to the negotiation table. And by the way, people, I don't hate Russia. I'm actually a huge fan of the Russian oil and gas industry. Before the pandemic started, we had plans to go actually and go meet the Russian oil and gas leaders in the industry.

tour some of their facilities. It's a different business culture. But I served in Marine Corps during the Cold War, and at that time, I really hated the Russians. I've grown to really like them and their economy and their people. I don't like what's going on with us now since this Russian-Ukraine thing. I would like to see...

peace. And I'd like to see relations normalized. And I'd actually like to see Russia and U.S., especially from a hydrocarbon point of view, become much more friendly. Because if we team up with Russia, OPEC all of a sudden has no power in the world. Docking with prices to use oil as a weapon will just go away. We're going to see what's happened here. But with the UK saying that.

Are the EU saying they're going to phase out all Russian gas by the end of 2027? That's going to increase the demand for U.S. LNG, which we can easily meet, which is going to make... everything better, including our own LNG business. You've seen all the work being done to bring out natural gas to the Permian, all the pipelines being built frantically. You're seeing all LNG trains being stood up. That's just the first wave of prosperity coming from LNG.

We have to export this, which means we need to build export terminals, which the U.S. is ahead of the world in that. But then that natural gas has to be shipped in a container in a boat, basically in a ship. And then wherever it ends, they have to build import terminals, which is just starting to happen all over the world.

happening in Europe, happening in Asia. Then once they import that LNG, that liquid natural gas has to be turned back to a gas. So then they have to build regasification plants. Once they turn it back to gas, then they have to put it in their natural gas system. So we have 50 years of infrastructure.

all over the world to be able to take the LNG that we can export. This is just good for everybody. And by the way, when you use natural gas to generate electricity instead of coal, you drop air emissions 60% without doing anything else. So this is also great for the planet and for the environment. Absolutely. I love where this is going.

Keep it up. All right. Orsted cancels major UK wind project as economics worsen. You've heard me talk about this before. Offshore wind I love in the right circumstance, but our world's politicians right after the pandemic pushed upon us faster than the market could adapt to it. And we have a lot of offshore wind.

projects around the world here in the US and in Europe that quite frankly have never been financially viable. They were subsidized by government, by taxpayer money. And now that that taxpayer money is going away, they don't make fiscal sense. My fear is this is going to be eyesore.

all over the world. Unlike an oil well where the money's put up usually in a bond where you have to decommission that well in offshore platform, because the world's politicians wanted to hurry up and help offshore wind get up and running, they didn't require that. So there's no bonds posted for offshore wind farms.

to decommission them. There's no money set aside for it. These companies are going to go bankrupt and walk away. And what's going to happen is the public's could drive on a coast, either here in the US or in Europe, and they're going to see corroding pylons and falling fiberglass.

windmill blades, and they're going to develop this hatred toward offshore wind, which they shouldn't have. This is really bad for the future of energy. We need all energy sources, whether it's nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar, they all have their place. They all have their negative impact to the environment.

All of those negative impacts to the environment can be mitigated if you choose to do so. But the market needs to drive this, not politicians. And unfortunately, this is a casualty of politicians driving energy policy. And this is going to be a mess. This will be a mess in the courthouse.

clean all this stuff up. The money won't be there. This company that started this, their revenue has dropped 80% since 2021. They're headed toward bankruptcy. This is not good. And I hate to see this because I am in the right circumstance, a big fan of offshore wind. But unfortunately, here's another major offshore wind project in the UK that's being canceled, and it's not going to be pretty. All right. Next up, BP reports 48% profit drop as strategy chief exits.

Now, if you listen to me for the last five years, you know I've talked about how Exxon and Chevron have pulled ahead of BP and Shell. BP and Shell took a chance. They invested in the renewable market very early on. They invested a lot of money. And if it would have paid off for them, they would have pulled ahead of Shell. Chevron and Exxon. However, they made a mistake. They called it wrong. And they've lost money. This 48% drop is staggering.

If you look at the earnings, which I've been looking at the last couple of weeks, all of our super majors have reported an earnings drop. But nobody has reported a 48%. It's almost a 50% drop in earnings. If you're a shareholder BP, and full disclosure, I am, I'm not happy with that.

this their ceo is under pressure to improve profitability he has made a public announcement they're cutting almost all their investment renewals they're putting money back in their traditional hydrocarbon business which is their bread and butter it's what they know unfortunately the side effect this is BP's chief strategy officer basically was asked to leave and he left. I still firmly believe Shell is going to buy BP. Let's keep an eye on this. All right.

To wrap things up, OTC 2025 announces Emerging Leaders Class. So we were there. We had our podcast pavilion set up. I don't know how many podcast interview we recorded. Over 30. We invited other podcasters that are in our space. Some would call those our competition, but we just see them as family. I think it was over 66. Over 66. Wow. Because I went through all the...

audio files. You had to upload all the files. Paige had to do all the work after everybody had all the fun. But we invite other podcasters to the energy space to come use our equipment.

We got them press passes, which they normally couldn't do. They came and joined us and they recorded, which by the way, if that's you, if you have a podcast that touches energy in any way or a YouTube channel and you want to join us next year at OTC, reach out to me directly. Happy to have you come join us. It's a ton of. fun. It also elevates you and gets your content out in front of millions of listeners instead of

Hundreds or thousands of listeners, whatever you have now. But anyway, I thought this was really good. So this is the OTC Emerging Leaders Series for 2025. So these are all emerging leaders that are young, that are new to the industry. And if this industry needs anything, it needs young people to be.

excited to come work here all these young people are below the age of 40 a lot of them in their 30s some are in their 20s there's a list that's awesome there'll be a link in the show notes and it covers everything from geoscience to project engineering to supply chain

Materials and corrosion engineering. And so it's just great to see young people come in the industry, be excited, make a difference, and then being recognized by OTC. This is in the journal Petroleum Technology. Like I said, the link will be in the show if you want to read this. If you know of any of these people.

Pat them on the back. Give them a big congratulations. Shout them out on LinkedIn. We need more of this. We need more young people coming in our industry and making a difference. And I love the fact that OTC decided to recognize them. Yep. All right. Is that the end of the news stories? Yeah, I've got some rig counts to talk about. What's the rig count doing?

So this is pretty typical for this time of year. The United States is at 578, so we're down six. Canada is down six at 114. Internationally, we're down eight at 891. Numbers, like you said, are what they should be. Remember, rig count isn't necessarily tied to production like it was years ago. We use the rig count because it's really kind of a tradition in our industry. Yep.

You know what is not a tradition in our industry, but will be soon? What is that? AI. And if you have an AI project and you want to work with people that have actually done it in the field, not in the lab somewhere, not in a university, reach out to Cognite. They sponsor this show, but I'm not talking about Cognite.

They're AI proudest because they sponsor the show. Cognite sponsors the show because we like what they do. They do incredible stuff. They will not try to sell you anything. They have their AI conference coming up. We have 10 tickets to give away. I think we're going to start giving away that on the next show.

I can't be bought with crawfish. That's a long story behind that. We actually had a listener, a chief geoscientist from somewhere, offer to bribe you with crawfish if you could get one of these tickets. Unfortunately, we have to be fair about it, so we're going to have a raffle-type thing. Next show, we'll share the details.

of that. But if you're in the middle of an AI project, if you're thinking about starting an AI project, or you just want to talk to us about AI, reach out to Cognite. Links in the show notes. Tell them that Mark and Paige sent you from Falling Gas this week. All right.

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