Copper's Supply-Side Story
Copper output has been stagnating or declining since 2015, with the pandemic causing mine closures in top producer Chile.
Jun 15, 2021•6 min
Off the Charts!
CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam's series Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day in the United States and across the globe. The podcast series provides a deeper dive into complex topics and frames the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.
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Episodes
Treasury Options Skews
Do options skews in Treasuries provide any guidance on market trend? We look into whether extreme downside skews signal a buying opportunity.
May 30, 2019•9 min
Oil: Are Options Skews Reliable Price Indicators?
Investors in the oil market seem to be more concerned over a market slump than a rally, as reflected in out-of-the-money options skews. Were they right?
May 21, 2019•10 min
Oil: Are Options Signaling Long-Term Uncertainty?
Oil prices have bounced off their recent lows but the implied volatility in options is indicating uncertainty in the market's direction over the long term.
Feb 05, 2019•12 min
Brexit: Classic Case of an Approaching Major Event Risk
Outcome of talks for UK's exit from the European Union under Brexit presents a classic case of event risk that could reach a climax in November.
Oct 01, 2018•8 min
Trade War Fallout Reverberates Through Markets, Economy
Large-cap U.S. stocks are much more vulnerable to the fallout from the trade war between the U.S. and China because of their complex global supply chains.
Jul 12, 2018•8 min
Oil: As Price Tops $70, Will Shale Producers Ramp Up Output?
As crude oil prices top $70 per barrel amid escalating Mideast geopolitical risk premium, will shale producers ramp up output as they lock in prices?
May 07, 2018•14 min
Fed's Challenges as its Steers Away From Emergency Policies
The Fed faces several key challenges as it charts a new monetary course in the aftermath of the emergency policies put in place during the Bernanke era.
May 03, 2018•6 min
Li Keqiang Index: China's Alternative Growth Barometer
An index named for China's prime minister seems to provide better insight into its growth than official GDP. What's in store for the world's No. 2 economy.
Apr 09, 2018•19 min
Phase Transitions and the Rise in Market Volatility
From growing U.S. budget deficits to potential trade wars and the end of quantitative easing, several "phase transitions" could fire up market volatility.
Apr 02, 2018•13 min
global-trade-disputes-take-center-stage-in-2018
From U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum to the uncertain future of NAFTA and tough Brexit negotiations, trade issues are taking center stage in 2018.
Mar 16, 2018•11 min
Bitcoin: Supply Growth, Mining Difficulty and Prospects in 2018
Bitcoin supply is likely to grow by less than 5% in 2018 as the cryptocurrency edges closer to its production cap and as mining difficulty rises sharply.
Jan 03, 2018•28 min
Ag Hedging Costs Could Spike if La Niña Strikes
Grain markets are not overly concerned of a La Niña, with options implied volatility near lows, but hedging costs could spike quickly if the weather bites.
Nov 07, 2017•9 min
Quantitative Easing: The Way Out for Central Banks
How will central banks' unwinding of quantitative easing, starting with the Federal Reserve, impact financial markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan.
Sep 19, 2017•10 min
Impact of Low Inflation Expectations on Wages
The lackluster growth in U.S. wages can be attributed, in part, to expectations of low inflation, which has remained subdued for more than two decades.
Sep 05, 2017•11 min
Oil: U.S. Output and OPEC Production Cuts
The trajectory of oil prices will depend on whether U.S. inventories continue to fall, OPEC members adhere to output cuts, and if U.S. production rises.
Aug 22, 2017•6 min
China: Does Yield Curve Portend a Recession?
Is China heading toward a recession? It's nascent yield curve is pointing to a possible major slowdown in the world's second-largest economy in mid-2018.
Aug 10, 2017•8 min
The Differing Nature of Event Risk
The Brexit vote in Britain and the presidential election in the United States offer a glimpse into the differing nature of event risk that drives markets.
Aug 02, 2017•11 min
Volatility is Lethargic Even as Uncertainty Abounds
Uncertainty and volatility are different risk management concepts. More uncertainty does not necessarily mean more volatile markets, as in the U.S.
Jul 18, 2017•12 min
Could Fed Rate Hikes Trigger Flight to Quality?
As interest rates in the United States go higher over the next two years, will it trigger a flight to quality into bonds on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean?
Jul 13, 2017•18 min
The Conundrum of Slow Growth and Tight Labor Market
The U.S. economy is a conundrum as it grows moderately at around 2% a year even as the unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in 16 years.
Jun 28, 2017•18 min
Fed Sets Out To Shrink Balance Sheet by Half
The Federal Reserve's approach to reducing its massive balance sheet is to proceed very slowly so it does not disrupt markets, especially home mortgages.
Jun 20, 2017•10 min
French Election: Outcome Could Impact Euro, EU
The French go to the polls on May 7 to elect a president, and the outcome could determine the future of the EU, impact the euro and affect Brexit talks.
May 01, 2017•14 min
Managing Risks and Challenges in Picking Stocks
Among asset managers, many are benchmarked to major equity indexes. Here are four reasons why it can be difficult to consistently outperform these indexes.
Apr 10, 2017•8 min
Gold: About to Break Out of Lull in Volatility?
The lack of volatility in gold has seen options prices slump, but is the market about to change course as Congress weighs in on major Trump initiatives?
Apr 04, 2017•16 min
Can Yield Curve Foretell a Coming Recession
The bond yield curve in relation to short-term rates is often a reliable indicator of a recession, and at the moment it is flashing the all-clear sign.
Mar 29, 2017•19 min
What Will a Post-Yellen Fed Look Like in 2018?
Janet Yellen's tenure as Fed Chair comes to a close next year, providing the Trump administration the opportunity to leave its imprint on the central bank.
Mar 20, 2017•9 min
Copper: Will Fed Rate Hikes Temper Rally?
Copper's blistering rally coincides with the Fed gearing up for multiple rate hikes in 2017. Will higher borrowing costs impact the red metal's performance?
Mar 13, 2017•16 min
Agriculture: El Niño, La Niña and Trade Policies
The weather outlook seems benign for crops like corn and soybeans in the Americas this year but shifts in U.S. trade policies could fuel market volatility.
Mar 03, 2017•7 min
Will European Elections Strengthen Unity or Deepen Divide?
Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany on the heels of the surprise 'Brexit' vote could either strengthen European unity or deepen the divide.
Feb 17, 2017•18 min
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