My Italian mother. We went to my closest My close friend in college is Matthias q and Uka, who was a defensive end for the New York Giants. We went to a game where he played in Detroit and he got hurt. As we were walking out, she went in the bathroom, came back out, threw her shirt away. Luckily she was wearing a jacket over it. But she's like, it's all my fault, it's the shirt, and we're like it so my mom caused an injury.
Stand Yeah, I would never think anything like that. Hi.
I'm Cynthia Freeland and I am an expert dog mom.
Hello friends, and welcome back to the Broadway smash hit Off the Beat. I am your host, Brian Baumgartner, And of course this isn't a Broadway hit at all, it's a podcast. Thank you all for listening today. It's well, it's the second week of February, and does anybody know what that means? Raise your hands please, I can't see them. But this Sunday is America's newest national holiday. That's right, it's Super Bowl Sunday. I'm excited. I hope at least
some of you are as well. Whether you're watching for the game, or for the commercials, or for Usher the halftime performer. Super Bowl Sunday is a day that well, we all get to sit around and eat bad food and consume various beverages. Super Bowl fifty eight the San Francisco forty nine Ers versus the Kansas City Chiefs. As many of you know, I actually do not have a specific dog in this fight, but I do expect it to be a very very good game.
Two of the bests.
This year, no one can argue that, and two of the best franchises in football squaring off in this game. For the Chiefs, their last Super Bowl was well it was last year, so they're looking to go back to back for the first time since the Patriots won Super Bowls thirty eight and thirty nine back in four and five. Friends, nearly twenty years ago. I couldn't believe that when I
looked it up. The Niners, speaking of shocking to me at least, I can't believe they have not won the Super Bowl for almost thirty years now.
Gosh, that makes me feel so old. It felt like they were winning every super Bowl for so long.
Their last super Bowl victory super Bowl twenty nine in Miami, where Steve Young was still the quarterback. Although the Niners have not won in twenty nine years, these two teams met a mirror four years ago Super Bowl fifty four. Many many of the of the people are that said, the coaches are the same, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid. Many of the players are the same. Patrick mahomes Otto State Farm joke, Travis Kelsey. Has Travis Kelsey been in the news this year at all?
I don't know. I haven't heard.
Much from Travis since I saw him at the American Century Championship last year. It's like he's hasn't been in the news that much. Deebo, Samuel, George Kittle, many, many more. There's two differences though for the Niners, of course, Christian McCaffrey and mister no longer irrelevant Rock Purdy. Is that going to be enough against?
Well?
Against Probably It's the biggest change for the Chiefs their defense. I looked it up, depending on which metrics and numbers or whatever you use, but most people say the number two total defense in the league this year. I couldn't find anyone who ranked them outside of the top five. A very very differently constructed team this year for the Chiefs, though of course they still have Patrick Mahomes. Now, speaking of numbers, we have the amazing Cynthia Freeland on the
Podcast today special visit for Super Bowl Week. She is, as many of you know, the numbers expert over at the NFL Network, And in just a few minutes I'm going to have her on to get her valuable insight on the big game and see if I can get any of you.
With a shall we say, financial interest.
In the game, well, maybe get you a little bit of help. Cynthia is going to be joining us in a few minutes, but first I wanted to take a little pause here and talk about my year so far. You know, I love talking to all my great guests here, and I feel like that's what this program is all about. I never wanted to be about me, but I do get questions on social media and when I run into people about what it is that I'm doing. They'll see a picture on social media. Why are you in Orlando?
What do you do? Are you a golfer?
Now?
Like, what are you doing?
And so I want to take a few minutes and just talk about what I've been doing and specifically an event i'll talk about in a minute that was very, very meaningful for me. I want to start back a couple of weeks ago. I was in or Land for Orlando. I always whenever I say now Orlando, I think of the Book of Mormon song Orlando. The Hilton Grant Vacations
Tournament of Champions. They're in Orlando, Florida. You know, my mom was born in Orlando, and my grandparents lived there there most of their lives, so I spend a lot of time in the Orlando area. It's always great to go back. But the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions is, well, it's not let's just say this, it's not relaxing, Okay. It is five days of golf. It is a professional golf tournament. Celebrities are playing in a professional golf tournament
alongside the LPGA players. Any player who has won a tournament over the last three year now, winning any golf tournament is not easy. Winning a professional golf tournament on the LPGA Tour is certainly no small feet. So we played along them. I played five days.
In a row.
I walked for four of them, and well, let's just say it was It started out well for me. Okay, probably my best tournament round, at least in a long long time. I had a few birdies. Round one I played really well. My best score certainly at the Orlando tournament there at Lake Nona Golf Club, And on eighteen I made birdie on the first day. And I've told
a few people since I walked into the clubhouse. I was playing at the end of the day and I walked in the clubhouse and most of the other players were assembled there having lunch, and all the televisions were on, and I birdied eighteen and I walked in the clubhouse, and I said, it was like I had just had a movie premiere.
That's how I felt. I walked into the room and people.
Were clapping and yelling, and because everyone had just seen on national television my let's call it a twenty two.
Foot birdie up the hill, drifting right.
Slightly into the hole and uh, and everyone was in there watching obviously when I walked in not too much later, maybe one of the best, the best sports feelings that I've ever had. Now we then played Round two didn't go quite as well. Round three kind of the same as Round two. By Round four, I wanted to be anywhere else on the planet. Okay, it was it was the struggle. It was a struggle buss as we call it in the business. Not easy, it was. It was rainy,
it was windy, it was cold. I wasn't happy. But you know, I'm out there on the course and I'm thinking to myself, why do I do this to myself? Why am I out? Why I'm not This is not my chosen profession. Why am I golfing on television in front of people walking this course eight plus miles by the way, in the rain and wet and cold?
Why am I doing? Why am I here?
And in the weeks, a couple of weeks since I left, I realized why I did it. I ran into Charlie Reimer, professional golfer, Golf Channel analyst and was talking to him about it and saying that, like, why am I doing this to myself?
And he says, well, people.
Don't realize who just think of golf as being in a golf cart, having beverages, hitting the ball every few minutes, and they like it's not really a sport. He's like, it's a very different thing where you're walking in these tough conditions and rain and wind and cold and the strain that it puts on your body. Have doing that same repetitive motion for four straight five straight days, but you know, walking for and some people playing you know,
six or seven days in a row. It is the challenge for me, the physical challenge, the mental challenge because mentally it's very difficult as well to stay focused for so long.
I love it. I love doing it gives me so much joy.
Even in the moment sometimes when I think I don't want to be here anymore, it gives me a tremendous amount of joy. So I appreciate Hilton Grand Vacations inviting me out, and that's another reason I'm there. By the way, is they put on a hell of an event there at Lake Nona Golf Club. The people at Lake Nona do a great job. This is a Chancechampionship level course, clearly because we're playing the Tournament of Champions there, but also it's so incredible for me to get to play
with the pros there. Lydia Coe, who I've gotten to know over the last several years, both at PXG when she was at PXG and then also here at the Tournament of Champions.
She was the winner.
Fourteen under for the week in incredibly difficult conditions this year. I was so happy and proud of her.
But I got to play with some of them.
The first day I am paired in a professional golf event with the number one player in the world, Lilya Fu unbelievable. I also got to play with Leona Maguire, Paulo Rito, Jennifer cup Cho. I had a great, great time and watching them play golf, seeing their distance control and their accuracy off the tee is.
Really fun.
I also want to congratulate the Flying Squirrel Jeff McNeil baseball player for the New York Mets, two time All Star, twenty twenty two All Star, starting second basement. He won the batting title that year, Silver Slugger Award. Apparently he's one hell of a golfer. We use the old Stableford format in the Celebrity Division, which means basically, you can't get any worse.
Than double bogie. I mean, let's just sum it.
Up that way so we get positive numbers there. One thirty eight. He finished two ahead of playing playing in the Celebrity Division. Oh just LPGA legend and Hall of famer an akasaurans Dam. Yeah, she finished two behind and she lives on the course. Jeff obviously was playing well. He was playing some hell of a golf that week, so congratulations to him. I just wanted to take a moment to thank everybody there in Orlando for a great week.
If you have never gone out to an LPGA event, well, in the words of Nike, just do it all right. Suffice it to say, when I finished there on that cold, wet, windy Sunday, I did not want to play golf at all anymore, except I had to, because shortly after that I went to I traveled across the other pond, the Pacific Ocean, to the Big Island of Hawaii. I went to the ACE Shootout there in Hawaii, and I wanted to take a couple moments here and tell you about the A Shootout. I was moved so much on this
latest trip. I'm still probably suffering from jet lag, so I'm a little jittery, still feel a little emotional about it. But I'm going to try as best I can to tell you a little bit about the A shootout. ACE Hardware for twenty seven years they have been putting on this event, the A Shootout, ACE Hardware and their their vendor partners, Craftsmen, is one shark bite many of them. They have raised forty million dollars for Children's Miracle Network hospitals.
Just through the A Shootout, we had the opportunity to meet niall of the one of their heroes, one of the kids who has been served by one of the hospitals in the Children's Miracle Network. He is beautiful, beautiful child with an amazing spirit, perseverance. He recently received cocular implants and is starting now to hear for the first time.
In his life.
And the opportunity, the gift that I had by going to this event and meeting Nile and many other patients who are served, was well, it was unbelievable. It was an unbelievable experience for me and made me feel so lucky to be present there. As I said, forty million dollars this year. This year alone, for this week during the A Shootout, they raised over three point six million dollars for Children's Miracle Network hospitals.
Thankfully, I didn't have to walk.
For four days in a row, and I until we started the skills competition, I did not pick up a golf club in between Orlando and that. People are like, are you going to play a practice round? Are you going to to the range? I was like, look, I've hit enough balls, because I hit more than most in Orlando. I either am going to have it or I'm not. And no amount of pounding balls on the range is going to help me. But thankfully it's a it's a
skills challenge type format. Other celebrities who were lucky enough to be there Greg Maddox, Hall of Fame pitcher Darren Williams and JJ Burrea from the National Basketball Association NFL legends and Super Bowl champions like Tim Brown and Santonio Holmes, who I had not met before. Santonio Holmes is credited with some might say the greatest catch in Super Bowl
history super Bowl forty three. He was named the MVP, and since I have since I met him, I've been back watched on YouTube replay is still there forty seconds left of the game. Ben Roethlisberger throws the ball into the corner of the end zone, Santonio Holmes catches it to help them win the game. He was named Super Bowl MVP and also, more significantly than all of that
that was my first Super Bowl. For Super Bowl, I was at the game and I saw it happen live and in person, I thought, this is the greatest play I've ever seen live when I saw it, especially with so much on the line. But the reason I was at that game was because immediately following that catch, now
there's an awards ceremony and so forth. So you know, maybe forty five minutes later on NBC The Office what aired after the Super Bowl, the episode Stress Relief with the largest audience obviously airing after the Super Bowl in the history of the show. And that's why I was there at the game. So that moment holds a special significance for me. But also just that that whole day, that whole experience of being there in Tampa is it's
a cool It's a cool thing to me. And so to be able to one go to this event and two have Santonio Holmes there, and three be able to tell him that story that he is now whether you know he knew it not, he didn't know it before that that that evening when I told him, But he's he is a part of my history, my personal history,
and I think that's what's so cool about sports. There's so many people were affected one way or the other by that moment, some because they were rooting for a specific team, but some sometimes other things that were involved. For me, the office airing after that game was was truly special. So to be able to tell him that story, which he I don't know, he at least seemed interested and that was that was fun. Also have to mention Michael Waltrip was there. Every event is made better with
Michael Waltrip being there. Of course Fox Sports, NASCAR contributor and two time Daytona five hundred champion Michael Waltrip and many many others. By the way, it's a it's a it's just a special special event benefiting many of the children's hospitals through CMN A hospital very near and dear to my heart, Rady's Children's Hospital in San Diego. They were able to benefit because of my participation in the event.
I named them as my benefactor for any money that I may or may not have won, But that's why I participated. That's why I drug myself from Orlando to Hawaii to participate in that event. Now, there's many ways for the hospitals to win by winning or placing in various challenges, and also Milwaukee Tools sponsored a fan favorite competition as well. How did I do? How much was I able to win or not win for Radi's Children's Hospital.
Well you got to tune in to find that out April twenty second on the Golf Channel, because when I say Golf Channel, I'm sure you all think of me because at least, well at least at the beginning of twenty twenty four, I've been on the Golf Channel about as much as anybody. Hopefully that's going to subside soon and we'll get back to some other, some other business at hand. But yeah, I just wanted to take a couple of minutes. You know, we I love talking to
my guests, but I do get questions at times. What is what you posted? Why are you in Hawaii? What are you doing traveling? Or why are you on another airplane? Well, sometimes it's for fun, sometimes it's for competition, and sometimes well it's for other people who need need some help. So that has been my time. And speaking of travel, yeah, I'm on the road again this week, back to football. I will be departing in mirror hours to Viva Las
Vegas for Super Bowl fifty eight. I've got some other events happening there, but this week I could not let this week go by without talking to Cynthia Freeland. Cynthia born in Michigan, A rabbit, some might say rabbit, Detroit Lions fan.
I know she had.
She had her heart broken by the Niners last week, and you know a little bit of me died last week too with that game. I was really rooting for Detroit and the Lions. But I think now with Dan Campbell there in Detroit, the Lions are going to be relevant here and have a shot for years to come, although green Bay looking pretty good as well. Cynthia went to Boston College. She got a biology degree. Then she
went to Northwestern. She got a Master of Business Administration degree in finance entrepreneurship, which I find the most difficult word in the English language to say, by the way.
Entrepreneurship and innovation.
Also a Master of Science degree on predictive analysis from said Northwestern University. Let's face it, Cynthia does the numbers way better than I do, or ever did. Since twenty sixteen, she's been at the NFL Network, and today she's going to tell us who's going to win Super Bowl fifty eight. Hi said the uh, how are you? I'm so good? How are you?
I'm good, I'm soaked. The dog has had me outside like fifteen times today, so.
A little sick dog. I understand.
He decided that he was going to drink all of the water out of the puddle, and that gave him not a very happy.
So this is people talk about the storm of the century here in southern California, it has even more repercussions.
For you, this is the.
Grossest storm I've ever lived through. Let me just like it's a literal poop storm for me. Oh okay, yeah.
Well you'll be uh, you'll be in Vegas soon and somebody else will be dealing with that.
Are you packed? Are you ready to go? O?
I'm not even close. I gotta figure I mean, I'm kind of a last minute backer, though, so I'll figured it out. I'll figure it out.
Uh. Well, first off, my condolences on the Lions last week. Have you recovered yet?
You know it was pretty quick after that. I figured out like to be more happy that they exceeded expectations than being sad about how it ended. It just sucks when you have such a big lead and then the other team comes back and with but whatever. I mean, they're a little earlier in terms of their sort of rebuild and the expectations I had, so on some level, I got a chance to go to one of the
playoff games at home. I was in Detroit. I got a chance to buy the entire bar round of drinks, which was very inexpensive round of drinks that way, but it was so much fun. I've never done that before. It be like the whole bars on me.
Oh my god, that's awesome.
It was, like I said, in Detroit, that's far more reasonable.
Well, right, yeah, buying a round of drinks in uh in in Detroit, that's well, it would not be the same as in the on the coast there in Los Angeles.
I got to ask.
You, you know, Dan Campbell, he's not it's not riverboat Ron, it's uh gambling Dan.
Maybe we need a literation. Yeah, what do you what?
What what do you what do you think about about about about his style and do you think, uh, do you think it hurt toward the end of the game as a numbers person.
Look, I think in terms of his style, I think he's one of, if not the most authentic coach that we have. I mean, I don't think there's any piece of him that doesn't act like from the moment he wakes up till the moment he goes to bed, he is biting kneecaps like I am sure of that. The players that I've spoken to, no, this is actually like he's all emotion all the time. So I think that authenticity like bleeds through. And I think the players really responded to that. And I also think that it wasn't
so much necessarily like analytics calls or numbers calls. It was more about that was their identity. I mean the number of plays. You know, you never want to like tie them down, like how many plays in the playbook are actually fourth down plays. But you know, I asked for a range, and that range that he told me was higher than most coaches have. So the reality is is they just it wasn't necessarily like because they thought the probabilities were in their favor. It was more because
they that's who they were. And I'm not mad about any of those calls in the in the SF game. I mean, I don't think he called the like Jamior Gibbs fumble play just just a you know something called that. Probably also don't think he called the like you know, Brandon I catch a ball that bounced off the defender's head. But you know, also probably not. I don't think Paul Shanahan called that, although if he could, that'd be pretty cool. But like, so I'm not so mad about it that.
It's more some of the things I think time management wise at the end of the game were a little bit more problematic from the standpoint of runs or passes on certain downs. That's actually it's a little ironic because that's like how Kyle Shanahan maybe exited Atlanta. But you know, it's an interesting it was just but again that's it's more identity than analytics. So you can't really be mad at it because they were outmatched. I mean, they were seven and a half I think seven and at least
seven or seven and a half point underdogs. It wasn't like their fourteen point favorites and blew this massive lead, right so right, you know.
I mean spoiler alert, they won me a little bit of money. So I didn't hate that. I just more was uh, I was I was rooting for.
Them to win, but just a better story. I mean I like, you know, I'm biased one hundred percent and I like the Niners. It's like, no anti Niner sentiment. It's just more like I've seen the Super Bowl. I was there in Miami, you know.
Like words, but yeah, yeah, well I wish I could say I wasn't anti Niners.
But I am.
I'm an unbiased journalist here just trying to figure out what's going to happen in this game. Now, I want to talk a little bit about you first, because I think your your story is fascinating. As I just told the listeners, you have eighty seven degrees in a variety in a variety of topics, not including sports, significantly a Master of Science degree in predictive analysis from Northwestern. Now, you were a financial advisor. How did you start to going to work for the NFL.
In business school? So when I started business school with my finance background, I was, you know, like I'm banking the whole thing before business school, pretty normal stuff. I old email the then CFO of the NFL. His name is Anthony Noto. He's now the CEO of SOFI after going through like Goldman, NFL, Goldman, Twitter, whatever, Like he's he's the freaking man, and he was a linebacker at Army if that he has linebacker mentality?
If that correct?
He I called emailed him because I had read his research reports and I really liked him. He was then the CFO of the NFL. So when I was kind of trying to figure out my way, I was like, you know, I'm gonna do my summer internship like all you know, cocky NBA kids. You're like, I can go
back into advestment begging if I went to you. And so I emailed him and was like, can I come work at the NFL and that, and thus began my journey with the NFL and a couple of the projects I worked on there from a finance standpoint were a seventeen game season, two teams moving to LA. This was two thousand and eight, so there was only there were no and a failed joint venture between ESPN Classic and
the NFL Network. It was wild times. I didn't know who any of these people were, like yelling at each other, I want Wisconsin football and then you know we can't pay for it. Was incredible, incredible stuff.
Wow, So you worked on a seventeen game schedule?
Yeah, back in two thousand and eight And the cool part was I got to talk to the Competition committee members who are like these, you know, Hall of Fame coaches, like people who know more they've forgotten more about football yesterday than the rest of us will ever know, and asking them about fairness and how to keep parody, which is really what everyone and including myself believes is the true advantage of NFL football as opposed to any other professional sport. And that was the dog.
And I thought it was your ahead.
Everyone knows he's here, he's like forty's here from here. So and that was kind of where I started to really be able to map together how like like analytics or at that time, you know, a lot of Excel documents.
If I learned how to code in better languages, I could make better models, and those models, which were usually to inform revenue, they could be switched to inform performance because more competitive games for longer, more of an opportunity to make the playoffs, means more viewers, more viewers, more people care, more money, round and round again.
So interesting.
I read this Detroit Free Press article. This quote stood out. This is from twenty eighteen. Oh god, no, but this is because look, I am a part of Obviously, analytics are important, right, and I mean the master of all sports analytics would probably be the Oakland Athletics, right, I mean, like in terms of small market, yet they make the playoffs. It may not win, but it make the playoffs. They're using it. But this debate that sort of rages between analytics and gut right in a way. In a way
Kyle Shanan versus Dan Campbell, Now that's reductive. I understand that because everybody's using it to some degree. But I think that this quote from you helped me to sort of understand and see analytics in a totally new way. You said, statistics is seeing that two defensive ends had the same number of secs, but analytics can measure who is the better player of the two, and that often has to do with what they're asked to do in the specific defenses that they're in and how well that
they do it. And so the idea is it's not just numbers or knowing numbers, but I think through your work as well, it's being an insider and talking to other people, understanding what defenses, for example in that example, are being run, and using all of that information together to help be more predictive.
I don't know is that I think it's to like really know, you know, I use this analogy a lot. Is like we kind of have a sense of who's overpaid, we kind of have a sense of who's underpaid, but you kind of need to know what paid is to be able to understand where that line actually is. At the extremes, everyone can figure it out. Everyone knows that there are good it's almost draft time. There are good quarterbacks coming up in this draft, and there are ones
that maybe aren't quite as talented right now. However, when an analytics point of view could tell you is who has the better chance of being a better backup in a specific system? Who has a better chance of you know, there's so many different ways to sort of slice it that you can say, in my system, I'm looking for
these attributes. I can handle not having these right So it's less about being reductive, I would you say, and more about finding a way to say these are the potential assets, this is how they could work, or these are you know, the potential attributes, and this is how we could nurture that development. I'm never gonna dunk a basketball. I'm not tall enough to do that, however, I could
potentially learn to shoot three point three point shots better. Right, Like, there is something that nature is absolutely already made a boundary, but there are other things that make me more or less likely to be able to do.
Something that's fascinating.
You write, you write your own code, so you're not using other people's codes.
You're no, I don't trust anyone else. This is I have like severe trust issues. No way, I don't use anyone else's code. Stay away.
What was what speaking of statistics, what was your record against the spread this year?
So I just went through and asked my producer because because I worked for the NFL and we're not allowed to get a do not track. You know, we're not allowed to do anything on our own. But although we pick every game with numbers, but don't ask me. I don't make the rules, I just follow them. So he told me that as of right now, I'm one seventy six and one oh eight, so that's sixty one point nine.
Are you serious?
He just emailed it to me because I was like, I don't know, And then see, we don't you like, we have to pick every game.
There's no way point you have to pick every game, some you don't want to pick, right, Well.
I will say this year though, someone that I haven't wanted to pick have helped me out a lot. This year is a little This year's a little whack, but like you know, many years, it's uh not that same. Wow. Yeah, I emailed him because I was like, I'm not this is not on me. One seventy We've had two hundred and eighty four games as of right now, one seventy six in one.
Way, Wow, that's very impressive.
Well, now I'm going to be one seventy six and one oh nine. I just feel it.
Tell me a little bit about well, and we'll see what happens with the news. Maybe you'll be going back to work for ESPN. Why you worked after the league office? You went and worked for ESPN for almost five years and then transitioned over to the NFL network. Why what made you make that decision?
Well, I was after business school. When I was done with business school, I went to Disney out here in Angelus and I was working in like the strap planning, like the scary part of it right where they were like you, but we'll buy you Lucasfilms, or we'll make some terrible acquisitions that I won't talk about in any interview going for anyways, But we work on these things that were like larger financial models, not dissimilar to what
I had been doing at the NFL. It was the lockout year at the NFL, and I had had a health issue, so I was not going to be able to get health insurance, which is why I made the leap to Disney after doing that failed JV with That's that's how it all pieces together. So I came out here. I started doing that. Then a role opened out in Bristol to me from Los Angeles to West Hartford, Connecticut.
Good decisions, My life choices are really good. And to work on the innovation team, which was like being able to use big data sort of like money before anyone was calling it like they were like moneyballing things right, like analytics. But also since I had actual tech background, figuring out how to sort of monetize different elements of this new analytics thing that was coming right. So the day that Paul D. Podesta of Oakland A's fame got hired by the Cleveland Browns, nobody at ESPN knew how
to talk about it. So for my very first time ever on TV was a six pm Sports center talking about baseball and then football and what is quote unquote moneyball for football?
Me?
And there we have it. Then we have a switch. Then I had started doing it and they're like, why don't you come on home to the NFL because I still was very close with my NFL peeps, and I came back to really, what I want to do is help evolve this narrative around using data for storytelling. That's not like I'm going to say this is like really splashy thing and you're going to be mad at it or not, And it's more about, Okay, this is what you're seeing and this is why this is a trend
that's following, or this is a trend that's breaking. So you know, it's like helping the fan who's already very smart, be a little bit more like, Okay, well, when you talk about like outside zone runs, why isn't that working this year? Or why does it look different? Why are people running the a gap again right as opposed to because there's always a pendulum the swings, and this is
this year. Actually, we saw the defenses be far more impactful than we've seen in recent years so as that pendulum swings, we get to see a little bit of more of the macro narrative around it. As opposed to being like I don't like this person.
I'm much more the second. I'm much more of the second. But I'm I'm pick here.
You're entertaining a lot of people just yell into space like that. Last week I got real, Matt, like I was listening to some of these takes on Dan Campbell and people were yelling into space about stuff, and I'm like, I don't even think this is They're projecting something else, Like this is like a therapy session for them. This isn't about Dan Campbell's decision. Like, I'm like, we've gone well past that.
But I'll be honest with you, I can't. I can't listen to it. I can't do it. I just can't. I just can't do it. And I don't need to name any name. I could name a number of names. I just my limit is reached. I'm I don't know, I don't feel old, but it feels I feel like crotchety and weirdly these most of these people are older than I am, but they're just yell. Maybe that's it. Maybe it's like the angry old man syndrome.
I also don't I also don't love when people say that the analytics say during a broadcast, see that's what I want to do next, I want to do in in game. I've started trying to do it with pre season with the Bills. And if you can do and if you can get the internet to work real time on code in Pimark Stadium, you can get it to work anywhere because it's just not it's not a new stadium, it's an older standing. So that's what I've been trying
to do. So we can say, hey, the instant pressure rate, right, Bills, you talk about defensive pressure. The Bills love like you talk about Bills, you talk about pressure on the defense, and so you be like, hey, right now they're tracking at thirty five percent, which is way lower than they're forty two percent that they usually do. Why, Okay, this is what's happening. Then you can have a better conversation about it. So but I don't like it's always about
like fourth down decisions. The analytics say to go for it, the analytics say not to go for it, and you're like, well, the reality is is the model that they're using says in the past from this down distance and time on the clock remain remaining that this is what the outcome has been. But they don't know if like the right guard's been just getting smoked by Aaron Donald for the past six possessions whatever. You know, they don't have that
like nuanced part. So it is and look, we don't have enough time on the broadcast to say, well, here's the nuances the right and all the times. But it is also a little frustrating as a person who I'm never saying anything like I'm saying in fact, I'm useless whatever. But like you know, like the analytics are never like you do like no, there's like a robot code in the back of a coach. It's like must do it, Like no, it's it's here's the decision that you need
to make. And actually sometimes you have to make the low probability decision like you just see.
So you know there.
I love that you're saying that, and I think that there's another component as well. And you tell me as a numbers person if I'm way off here. I know people make too much out of momentum or energy. But there, but but hold but hold, hold on one second. There's this specific play that I always reference, which to me is like the model of this and I believe that I was proved right because they shot a show around it, and when you watch the show, it makes you want
to kill somebody. Green Bay Packers the two hail mary game in Arizona in the playoffs, where literally with no time left on the clock, Rogers throws a hail mary to come within one point and they kicked the extra point. Now, there was some question about whether or not he caught the ball or they went to replay. And during that season, all or Nothing was on the Arizona Cardinals. So it came out and NFL Films was in there documenting every moment.
And do you know what every single person on the Arizona sideline was doing after the play was made, before the point after attempt, they were looking at the scoreboard. They were looking at the score like, did was that a did did that?
Did that?
Just?
Really? Did Was that? Was that a cat? Did that? Really?
Just?
Was that?
What?
Like? They were defeated, it was over, you go for two and you.
Win the game, and whatever the quote unquote analytics say in that moment to me, you have you have to define the time of the game, the circumstances around that as well, not just if Aaron Donald was smoking the right uh, the right tackle. But like where where we are, we haven't never talking about well the analytics say, in the past, with no time left on a clock in a playoff game where you've just had a hail Mary three against you really and then of course you know Green Bay never got the ball.
Not that I'm still living back.
Then, but I was in the stadium that day, and I even at the moment I screamed and screamed, what are you doing?
What are you doing? Anyway? All right?
So wait, I'll give you an answer for that, okay, because I think the two things that get conflated are momentum and psychology. There is a psychological factor when you have a massive play like that, and if you have another one in the arsenal where you have a stronger belief in yourself. I am not a psychologist, but I think those behavioral aspects are measurable. When people say the word momentum, that gets tricky because like I don't really always know what they mean, right, Like in that case,
I know what you mean by it. But like like sometimes people be like, well, if I get up on my couch and I watch from my bathroom through the little window, I've done, you know, a butterfly wing flapped in Japan and whatever, like you know, like that that's not the same, right, Like I think have to be careful with psychology, okay, like whatever we mean.
By okay, So psychology you think is valid.
Moment psychology is valid. I'm not sure always. It's just like when the the word analytics has been bastardized. The word momentum also bastardized, right, like motion object is that whatever? Like we get it, but like sometimes they stop like it's it's It's very tricky because I would argue sometimes it's like, well now it's special teams guys, and it's not the same. People like, but the psychology I think is real, I don't. But again, you're you're bastardizing the
word momentum if you just use it for everything. Yep, they've got momentum swing up, momentum swing up, like it doesn't mean anything anywhore. Just like the analytics say, I.
Need to watch it, sounds like you and I are the same.
I need to watch the games with you, because I spend as much time yelling at the announcers as I do anybody else. And I think based on this conversation, I find we're we're on the same page.
Yeah, I mean some of them are. I will say the ones that are great or really like I'm like a I'm like a Greg Olsen fan times a million, Like I think he does a great job. So like he he doesn't get in his uh in his bag with weird trick phrases, right right, No, an I Eagle. I will go to the map for Iron Eagle. I love Iron Eagle. He's also like the he's like super fun to work with, so well.
That makes that makes a difference too. But wait, I do want to circle back on one thing. So you don't think based on whether I'm sitting or standing or watching a game through the window at a bar or sitting down at a table in the bar, you don't think that I have control over what's going on.
I mean you might. I guess it's possible, But I'm a probabilities girl. That is a low probability event.
There was in the bathroom for that last throwing.
The ball, and you're like just simply like moonlighting as another person, but you're actually Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball in that moment. Then then we can talk about where you're watching it from actually matters, because you know arm angles actual velocity.
Yeah.
I was in the bathroom for that last offensive drive. I got to go back again. Call me, hey, knock on the door when they've scored again.
Oh god, oh, my mother, my Italian mother. We went to my closest. My close friend in college is Matthias q and Uka, who was a defensive end for the New York Giants. We went to a game where he played in Detroit and he got hurt. As we were walking out, she went in the bathroom, came back out, threw her shirt away. Luckily she was wearing a jacket over it. But she's like, it's all my fault, it's the shirt, and we're like, so, my mom caused an injury.
Yeah, I would never think anything like that. I might have looked for a hat that I wore the last time a team played.
I might wash the lion's sweatshirt. I didn't wash it all.
So it's fine, is that true? You know you can watch it for next year? Yeah?
Okay, a couple of specifics before general you think that you know the thing I mentioned before.
I mean, I know this is reductive.
It's almost embarrassing to say these things in front of you, But you know, the two teams played four years ago. Obviously a number of the same people involved. I think the coaches both being involved again and having the same experience of preparing for a Super Bowl for two weeks against the other coach. I think that's significant. Many of the same players.
But as I.
Mentioned, seventeen players that haven't played in Super Bowl. I know it's not the same as the one four years ago, but that's seventeen players that haven't That's crazy.
Yeah, that's crazy. The lie if the Lions were playing in it, what would it be like fifty.
Seventh Jarry Goff has played in the Super Bowl? Like maybe maybe three? Right, Oh, you're under would be said at three players. I haven't seen the I haven't looked at the roster and the Super Bowl. That's where I said it under two.
Do you?
But obviously there's Christian McCaffrey this time around. There's also mister not irrelevant anymore, Rock Purty. But to me, a significant difference is the Chiefs defense is no longer irrelevant. What do you think about this time around with the vaunted forty nine er offense against this new look Chiefs defense, which I don't know where you had them, that would be interesting. I couldn't find a list where the chief We're not in the top five, and most of them had them number two this year.
Yeah, I think I think they're probably three ish two for me as well. It's hard. I'll have to go back and look, but top five for sure, absolutely, top four for sure. The interesting part in this game will be the yards after the catch for the Niners, because Niners, that's what they do. Past two seasons, they've led in that metric on a per reception basis, six point seven yards per reception that is a lot. Two point one
of those are yards after the catch over expected. So that is a stat that I like because it kind of makes you like like it's like a war sort of metric. For it's better when it's for position groups like yards after the catch over expected. It's not quite as amazing on an individual player basis because whatever, but as a blended group it's actually pretty instructive. So there, I mean six point sevens a ton and the Chiefs defense they are so best at limiting such yards, so
they're really good tacklers. They're understanding where they're supposed to be. They're strategic with they're blitzing. Sure they do it at a top six rate in the league, but it's strategic so they're not getting a blitz and then just not getting home right like they're blitzing in times either you know, a predictable passing down or something where they get a pressure. For example, in this game, I would look at the right side of the offensive line for the forty nine ers.
I mean, we saw Aiden Hutchinson from the Lions lineup against there and then you know, George Kittle like smoked him a couple of times. But it's still like that's the side of the line that they're gonna need to account for. But it's really their their ability to, especially at the intermediate level, just kind of find that area right in between where those rushers go and where the you know, the safeties are in the back because the corners are very good and both Lagarious Snead and Trent
McDuffie in the red area get even better. So don't get the compressed field they need to rely on yak. They that's that will be the to me, that's the one thing if the Niners win, it's because they've got a lot of yak That's why.
I love that yacks after catch.
I love that.
Yeah, it's funny, you, I mean, it's not funny at all. I don't know why I use that. That was just like me trying to think of a word to say. But like McCaffrey, Debo, even Kittle, Yeah, you you when you see their plays or when you when you think about them, it's just like they just make people miss. They just make people one to twelve. There's only eleven players on defense. But you know what I'm saying, like, yeah, usually that's that is That's very interesting.
Uh, Rock.
He has well, Certainly the second half of the Detroit game, he put on a pretty impressive performance. Doesn't a peer, however, to be dominating start to finish as he was during the regular season.
You think he's going to be tight. What does the numbers say about that?
I think it's going to be a tighter game. I think. I mean, I can tell you who I have winning. I mean, I've done all my I've done my homework, correct you have I yeah, yeah, oh yeah. I mean obviously, if there is some weird injury that you know, if something really strange happens, this would all potentially change. But despite Brock and these two things can be true at the same time. I think Rock Curdy is a is a good quarterback, and I think he's a long term
great solution. My it doesn't necessarily mean that. I don't think that Kansas City's offense is going to dominate San Francisco's offense. And that's more where I fall. I think hopefully and I do have a pretty healthy scoring game, but I think that the chiefs. To me, it's it's going to be hard to outwit the chief in this chess game, especially since and I would say this to Kyle Shannon if he was sitting right here. Sometimes at the end of games, look what happens if he's trailing
in fourth quarters. It's not a pretty number. And sometimes in the end of game like he's like, let's run, and You're like, no, it's a past, Like you know, he just the strategy doesn't work, and it's not And this has honestly, it's nothing to do with Brock Purty. It's not because I think Brock Purty is going to go out there and like not and throw what did you throw against the Ravens like feign or so No
that that ain't it. It's just more I think Patrick Mahomes in this situation, and more Isaiah Pacheco, because I think that's where they're going to get those burst yards. Go watch what happened on first down with the Lions game or with your guy Aaron Jones in the Packers game the week before. It's those first downs, on first downs where you can really the Niners can get got.
They can get got on those And as unsexy as that sounds, that to me is a far more instructive way to live than to say, hey, we need to rely on not confusing brock Purdy for four quarters because, by the way, Steve Spagnola is expert at that. By the way, did you know the fifteenth anniversary that David Tyree head thing where Steve Spagnola was a defensive cordator. I don't know. I just thought that the other day. I was like, Wow, it's been that's crazy. Bags is
a coordator in that Super Bowl, too insane. He'd beat Tom Brady, who was undefeated that year, So you got to give Spags a little bit of credit right there.
Wow, you got the Chiefs winning a close one.
A I do, I do? Which is the under you know they're not favored?
Me too, Me too? I don't know.
Is that that's either that's either winning twinning or we're both going to be wrong, I mean, one way or the other, or at least on the same team. Well, I am hoping for a big game from my fellow s m U Mustangs hailed to the red and the blue of the Mustangs of SMU. Rushi Rice having a really nice little postseason. I'm hoping it continues.
And so I want to give you my low key. I like Rassi Rice, but I think my low key like if you want to think about I mean to use the word alternate m vps, perhaps not quarterbacks or Christian McCaffrey, because those two would those three would seem the most obvious. I think I think there could be a world where Isaiah Patchecko happens to run rough shot,
and not that I don't. I don't think it's super likely, but I think it's I think there's value there because because look, if you're gonna say, I believe the Chiefs win, and part of the way the Chiefs win is to keep the ball out. You got to keep the ball on the side. We both think there's going to be a decent amount of points scored. Okay, so then what what do you What do you do? If you're Andy Reid? Strategically you run the football or you use the short
passes that we've seen. And that's where because you're not going to pass into Fred Warren or Drake green Law, this is not gonna happen. But you can on outside zone runs, which is hilariously like Kyle Shanahan's special outside zone runs. That's how they can make them like not very happy.
I like it. I like it a lot.
We will we will see you in Las Vegas very very soon. Thank you so much for your insight. I just put a million dollars on Pacheco to win the MVP. The odds were incredible. I hope that was smart. If not, again, it's your fault.
I mean, it's totally my fault. And if you win, I'll let you pay off my student loans.
Actually, if I were to make that bet, I would pay I would pay off your student loan even though after today I know that you have eighty seven degrees, I would still pay all.
Pay for two of them. So I got one.
Gun, Cynthia. Thank you so much. I will see you in Vegas.
See you very soon, safe travel, stay out of this.
Rat you too.
Thank you Cynthia for joining me. I will see you in Vegas. We're gonna well, we're gonna have an interesting week, to say the least, and everybody you heard it here First the Chiefs in a high scoring, close game over the forty nine Ers.
Again, we're both right or we're both wrong.
Listeners, thank you so much for indulging me with storytime with Brian today, and enjoy the game. Good luck in whatever way you choose to watch, and I will see you next week for another Well, it's gonna be an amazing episode. Off the Beat is hosted and executive produced by me Brian Baumgartner, alongside our executive producer Ling Lee. Our senior producer is Diego Tapia. Our producers are Liz Hayes, Hannah Harris, and Emily Carr. Our talent producer is Ryan
Papa Zachary. Our theme song Bubble and Squeak, performed by the One and only Creed Bratton