How a Fund Manager's Trying to Fix Some of the Mideast's Issues

time has I'm trying to think. I was gonna say time has flown by, but I don't know, but that would be the opposite of it's felt so long. It's felt like an eternity. I can't believe it's it's I can't believe it's only been a year because it just seems like an eternity since you were here. Is that I'm trying to think of? Which is the way to frame it? Yeah? Good, save, I think, Okay, okay, right?

I mean that actually means that we've been doing Odd Thoughts um internationally for longer than we actually did it together in the same studio, which is kind of amazing when you think about it. That is, uh, that is pretty amazing. All right. What's the point though, what's the point of this intro? Okay, So when you think about the Middle East, obviously a lot of people think about it as a rather troubled region. What are some of the major issues that spring to mind when you think

of the Middle East. Well, obviously one of them from an economic standpoint is the reliance of many countries on oil and the future of the petroleum economy. And then, of course, you know what you were saying, is the troubled aspects the sort of continued tension regarding you know, political systems and stuff like that. I think you want

to say religion as well, right that as well? Yeah, all of that, all of that when I think of the Middle all of that seems combined, the tension of religious interest, political interest opening up to sort of attempts at democracy, and a version of capitalism all seemed to um to swirl around when I think of what's going

on in the Middle East. All right, well, um, to celebrate my one year anniversary, I guess we're going to be discussing all these issues with someone in finance who is trying to solve pretty much all of them, so quite a hefty task, as you might imagine. That does sound like that does sound like a hefty task. Alright,

we're going to have on in Mad most Stack. He is the co chief investment officer for Capricorn Fund Managers and really I think one of the smartest guys around when it comes to emerging markets, and Mad thanks so much for coming on. That's my pleasure. Two kind so

emad uh. We got to it a little bit in the intro, but for the past year I've really had a front row seat, um to see the impact of low oil prices on golf economies and a lot of these economies have really built themselves around the energy industry and it's really interesting to see them try to wean themselves off of it. Now, why is it so or

seemingly so difficult for them? Well, I think that ultimately, what you have is you've had a very established social contract for a number of years, and this is something we've seen across the world. It's like, what is the fundamental basis of your relationship with the governments In the Middle East, it was a case of they extracted energy rents and they provided almost a jobs guarantee for their citizens, and they bought an expatriate labor to actually have productive work.

That's being rewritten now because it's a question of can you keep on with these public sector jobs, in particular when the oil prices have collapsed such a degree. Is this a cyclical collapse where the all price is going to fIF deal, go back to andrew and then you know it'll keep on weaving or is it permanently at fifty dollars or lower? And that's a that's really concerned them because they're like, maybe we can't afford to employ these millions of young people who are kind of coming through.

You know, when you think about there's a sort of a famous fact that economies that are highly dependent on natural resources they get trapped. They get these overvalued currencies, they get overly dependent on that specific resource. The rest of the economy kind of atrophies. If you're not in that resource, then you really have nothing going for you. Um, you know, this idea of transitioning away from oil dependency,

is it really plausible. I mean, it's a great thing to talk about diversifying the economy, but is it something that can actually be done. Well, you know, necessity is the mother of invention. Um. I think all economies, when then the core driver starts to come away, the question marks always can it rebalance? I mean China has been reliant upon debt plus obviously the base growth effect. These ones have been reliant upon the resource curse. Can they

move away? And I think you need two things. First of all, you need to have that like impetus and then you need someone with a very strong hand to push it through. If you look at country like Abu Dabbi and Kuwait, they have so much cash that for the moment, the impetus isn't really there. You look at someone like Saudi Arabia. It's coming from a very low base,

but there's tremendous potential for reformation there. And you have this millennial Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad been Salman really trying to push through everything possible in terms of societal economic, kind of corporate reformation there around COO I, p O

S and things like that. Will they be successful, Well, they're not going to achieve vision because it's just far too aggressive, but definitely you will have improvement from where we are now, because you have to have improvement from where we are now or you're going to have increasing social tension. I'm glad you brought up Saudi Aramco. This is a huge story both in golf markets and internationally.

It's the listing of Saudi Arabia be as state owned oil company, and I'm glad you brought it up because I wanted to pick up on your point earlier. Do you think the downturn in oil prices is cyclical or is it something more structural, because there are some analysts who have talked about Saudi Arabia listing Aramco because the country basically thinks that oil demand is eventually going to peak. Well, I mean, I think that if you are a sensible leader of a country that's so reliant on oil with

revenues coming from it, you do need to diversify. I think realistically, the Southies don't know. Nobody knows if this is cyclical or secular um, but you have to be prepared for these eventualities. And what South Arabia is effectually doing if you read between the Lions for their kind of pension fund, putting two trillion dollars offshore, kind of trying to get FDI to come in and stabilize the

real because all receipts aren't there is. They're trying to shift from basically having oil rents to having rents extracted from dividends and you know, from the creativity of others abroad. I mean, this is why they're investing in things like Uber with three billion dollars. They will eventually invest in companies like Tesla. I'm sure they're gonna do massive investment into US infrastructure. I mean, there was a hundred billion

dollar fund with soft Bank. Half of that of which they're providing, forty five billion dollars is going to go into the US. So I think it's they're just trying to swap some cash flows now just in case, because they don't want to be caught out, just as they've been caught out over the last few years, and now is the time to do it when the pressure is on, so they can make these social changes as well as

economic changes. I get that idea that they have all this cash and what they want to do is have all these investments abroad and then hopefully those investments pay off and they pay a recurring dividend and that sort of replaces the you know, the month the money they get all the time from oil, But what about long term in terms of the domestic economy, in terms of all these people, uh, in terms of jobs and stuff

like that. New industry, it's just there any thought or is there any progress being made to uh new domestic industries that will replace oil if the eventually sort of fades away. I mean, definitely, there's obviously massive plans and things like that, But the bottom line is you've got six d seven hundred thousand young Saudis coming through, increasing amounts of women in the workforce. Need to create jobs

for them. And what they're trying to do is they're trying to cluster around big industries and really encourage Sames to come through. Whether or not be successful, I think it's going to take time. I mean, you can't change the mentality of a country overnight from basically being guaranteed a public sector job with six of Saudis in the public sector to having to work in the private sector.

But you know, initiatives such as saying, well, foreigners are no longer allowed to work in Mores, it must be Saudis and things like that, they're kind of stealth tacks on the private center. But they are getting more people into the workforce who are Saudies. But like I said, this thing is going to take time, and the question mark is do they have enough time? UM? I think

the jury is still out on that. So let's take a step back, because of course, diversifying the economy and building up domestic industries is something that's going to take time. You can't really snap your fingers and have it happen.

Let's talk about the low oil prices themselves. UM. This is obviously a hot topic in markets, and it seems like not a day goes by that we don't have a headline that says something about OPEC versus the US shale industry, and a headline questioning opex ability to actually impact prices in the face of rising American production. What power do Middle East producers actually have when it comes

to influencing the price of a barrel of crude? I mean, I think, just on one quick final point about the previous thing, the template there is Dubai, where it took about ten years to rediversify because they ran out of oil. Now hopping on to see the question you just asked, Look, OPEC is not a cartel. There have been lots of studies done. It's just too diversive. There's too many competing interests.

Everyone's kind of tapped out when all prices are low because they overspend when all prices are high for it to be a cartel um what it approximates in kind of economic terms of the Stackleberg competition and what happens there is the leader moves and everyone else follows. But the only way that kind of they can punish, in this case Saudi Arabia everyone for not following is to just increase production and collapse the prices. And that's kind of like what you saw when Saudi Arabia wants to

try and push out shale. But also it played out the scenarios if we cut, are we going to get into repeat of the nineties when we went from like ten million pounds and to two and a half million barrels and everyone else will cheat and Shell will just come and take the money that we're leaving on the table. That was the dynamic in two thousand and fourteen. Right now, I don't think anyone is thinking that there won't be an extension of the Opeqe cut and it has stabilized

all prices. Why is that it's because Aman, Saudi everyone are starting to cash in on the long term cash flows of the oil production through bond issuances and equity issuances, So the payoff structure for them is different. You know, it costs Satibe a four and a half billion dollars a quarter at fifty dollar oil to cut to the amount that they have. They're just raised the seventeen billion dollar bond, you know, the around co I p O

of fifty undred billion dollars crystallized. The payoff is very different to the extent that I think they can cut probably two million barrels by themselves if they really really need to and still come out ahead on cash terms. That would impact the market because the oil market is fascinating because you have ninety six million barrels of production but over supplies only one two million barrels in each direction. But the price moves, it doubles, it halves. It's incredibly

sensitive to small shifts in production. It's just that OPEC can't get his act together to actually synchronize that usually and definitely to over extend from where they are now. So moving from one point two million barrels to two you'd need to see the op price drop below forty again probably as an example. So they're kind of in

the comfort zone. So just to be clear, going back to what you said, what's different now is the ease with which the oil producing countries are able to monitor his future production via the bond market, which sort of makes it a little more economical to hold production down. My understanding that right, Yeah, I think that it's a change in mentality. Um, you know, they didn't know what the elasticity of shale would be. They've got some points

of that. You start to see us, she'll come back online, but obviously the easiest stuff and you're not getting into the hardest stuff and oil service companies prices are going up and things like that. But they didn't know what that response function would be, and the payoff was just different. Now they've done all the groundwork, led by Saudi Arabia, they can start having these cash flows because really without Saudi Arabia you can't have any cuts. So it comes

down to the South Arabia want cuts or not. That's why, like I said, if you model it as a Stackleberg competition, which is one where everyone follows the leader as it were, Um, because if Sally didn't move, you wouldn't have an ipeck deal. Right, let's pause for a second and take a short break to hear from our sponsor. But first we want to take a quick moment to let you know about something

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back with ammad most ack of Capricorn fund Management. Aman, you are just making the point that the price of oil or oil prices tend to be very, very affected by relatively small swings in production two million barrels. I think you said. If that's the case, then how come ope can't get its act together and actually control the price of oil in the way that some people you

know used to think that it actually did well. I think that if you look historically at proper cartels, diamond in etcetera, the cartel members typical control of the market, but the dynamics were a bit different. In the case of Opeque and oil. What they're really focusing on at the moment is the supply side of things, and the methodology in terms of OPEC cuts is a very crude methodology. You know, we will cut one point two million barrels

over the next six months. That's the current cut. That's cost them ten and a half billion dollars of lost income from the barrels they didn't produce and sell. If you assume fifty dollar oil, if the market shifts, if you know there's too much heavy versus light, where there any cutting heavy crude, they can't really adapt for that, and you can't really enforce it either. The enforcement this time in terms of compliance, so that should been very

good compared to previous cuts. But then when once party starts cheating, historically everyone starts cheating and then it's just sadly left by themselves at two and a half million barrels while they were on kind of makes merry with lots and lots of cash because you don't find out. I mean, we've seen all these discussions about the OPEC monitoring and things like that, and loads of people say, well, this is the number, rock saying no, this is the number.

It takes two to three months to actually see if anyone's cheating. So it just doesn't have the enforce ability. It doesn't have adaptability. Um, and that's why it's so difficult to really get everyone together on the same page unless they're terrified. So let's go back. When we started the episode, Tracy introduced you as someone who had was working on the solutions to some of the region's biggest vexing problems. And so let's get into this from an

oil perspective. How could the Mid East oil producers sort of rearrange their affairs such that they didn't get you know, such that they weren't so susceptible to these traps. Yeah, I mean, I'm just trying to give my kind of tuppence and try and help out wherever I can. But my suggestion is what I call the tactical Petroleum Fund, which is to flip the focus from supply onto demand

and effectually can create a marginal consumer for oil. So rather than have this very blunt instrument where you cut x million barrels and you lose ten billion dollars every single six months, Instead, if the aim is to remove barrels from the market now because you think now there's over supply, in the future, there will be under supply because you're not doing the investments the trillions of dollars that have been canceled to maintain the future supply in

the face of declining production, because you know, you lose four or five million barrels a year from existing fields of production. That's huge and shall can fill some, but it can't fill that oil. Um my sugestion is that rather than cut you know, exper cent of your production, put half of that amount equivalent, produce a maximum and

put it into a fund. And then what the fund can do is the fund can leverage up two to three times because you can effectually head against the oil price dropping and go out and purchase barrels from the market and move them off the market being available to the market. Because the most fascinating thing for me, for the oil prices and the oil market is that not

every barrel is equal. When you get a headline out of Iraq, you know, che hun Kirkuk pripelines down four hundred thousand bows a two hundred thousand bollars a day, or Nigerian crew down three hundred thousand bollars day, the market often doesn't even flinch a little bit of a shift on us shell and the market goes ballistic. Oil in a strategic petroleum reserve is treated as effectually not

available to the market. Oil in US inventories, which is the current focus, is treated as massively available to the market. So what you need to do is effectually create a buffer stock, just like Joseph in the Bible, you know, with the seven years of beasts and seven years of famine, whereby you take these barrels and you just move them

off the market. And because you don't actually care about going to zero on that fund, there are so many ways you can do it, and you can really have things like if you've got too much light oil, you can move the light toil too much heavy, or you can move the heavy oil. If the oil curve and the oil market is not in oversupply, you don't make

any purchases. You know, you have that flexibility and importantly you have enforceability because it's not a case of two months later have you cut production, no, it's have you paid at the start of this month yes or no? Um. So it's also a lot fairer because for example, now Saudi Arabia is cutting. They produce thirty percent of production, but they're bearing to the cost of this OPEC cut. So realistically, given the dynamics within Opeque, and you know

what we've seen so far. What do you think are the chances that they would do something like this, because in some ways it means you have to seed a little bit of influence to an independent party, right like I'm assuming the oil fund would be somewhat independent from

individual producers. Yeah, I mean, I think the typical way that these types of buffer stock systems, although there hasn't been coming quite like this given the interesting nature of the all market is that anyone who participates gets a vote and a share, and you get kind of a view into that. It becomes a bit of an invisible hand in the market. And what it can do is it can smooth out the volatility of the price, but then if you start to get greedy, you will eventually

get taken out. Um. I think probably the optimal solution is, once they've gained through the scenarios and you know, the lessoners can do this at home, just introduced this as a player into the game. It works out a lot better financially is to have a hybrid system whereby you have an opequ cut just as you have now, but then you introduce this as a small player in the market and see where is it balancing. Just like Saudi Arabia want to see how is shail going to balance

the market, because it becomes very interesting there. So you don't it's not either all you can have a hybrid, but I think in the long term this well, you can show mathematically, you can show qualtitatively, this is a superior option than very crude OPEC cut. Let's take a

turn a little bit from this tracy. And also in the beginning we were talking about some of the other tensions that existed in the region, beyond just the challenges of oil economics, the questions about the long term viability, the sort of game theory, aspects of how the OPEC

countries deal with each other. There's obviously a lot of issues related to politics, religion, There's the refugee crisis emanating out of Syria, all kinds of things that people sort of see as never ending issues one after another in the Mid East. You will also are very interested in those areas, and you've sort of thought through some ideas. Tell us a little bit about some of the stuff that you're working on there. Um So yeah, I mean

I think that there are two main things. One is on religion and one is on kind of the refugee crisis. M just to touch on the religion one, because I can't talk too much about it. Um. You know, we've done a lot of work in terms of really understanding extreme smism and Islam and kind of the various aspects of that, because obviously you don't have the Sunny Sia divide and then you have these extremists burning up the

place in Syria. When you start kind of really doing and analyzing Islam in a very structured way, it's becomes very clear that kind of the politicization of it, as with many other religions, stems from a lack of access to available information. Um. And it's actually quite fascinating because when you see in terms of Johar, this recruitment is that they provide a little bit of information which is more than you get from the established authorities, and then

people believe they know everything. And what happens then is when you believe you know everything, that's when you're the most dangerous in many different fields. Right, Um, kind of this has been shown and this is what allows people think, well, I know better in that person, and then I can go and kill or do all sorts of dangerous things. The most optimal solutions away. You know a bit and you know you don't know that much, or when you

know a lot, you know you don't know that much. Um. And so my question is kind of how can you provide a resource to avoid this because when you look at the data, I don't know, if you guys know about engineers are ten times more likely to become extremists than any other group as an example. Huh why is that?

It's because if you think about what you do as an engineer or an education individual, you build models, right, and so if they get information that's a little bit better than what's publicly available, it seems like a plausible, coherent hole the message of these jahadis, especially if they are marginalized for some reason or another, usually political. Um. And so I thought was for me was the most fascinating thing, And I thought about how do individuals access information?

How does Islam work? Just in kind of one minute, how Islam works or Sunni Islam? Should I say is that during the time of the profit, it was really eased to find out what Islam was because you asked him and he had revelation. When he died, it became a bit more complex, and then everyone all his disciples. Disciples,

the disciples said all sorts of things. So three centuries after they decide to codify it by getting the eternal Koran and building a picture of the temporal life of the profit and figuring out the links between them and applying it to today. That's actually quite an interesting thing because what subjective versus subjective in the religion, Because in certain religions you have this hierarchy where you have a large amount of subjectivity because the revelation, whereas Islam is

actually quite ordered. So one of my projects analysis an attempt to provide the information access in an ordered basis um. And we're starting with the Koran and having a really nice version of the Koran where you can have full contextual access um in terms of being able to dig in as much depth as you want into the language,

into all of the sources, really consumrified. And hopefully by building that up and doing the same for Shia, Islam and other religions will have a kind of standardized kind of Wikipedia Google Age system where you have reliable access to all of these sources and you can start to compare and contrast because the difference between Shia and Sunny aren't that big, right, the differences between mainstream and fundamentalist.

Is a fundamentalist believe they know everything. If you can provide resources where you can object to be show they don't know everything, or introduce that element of doubts, maybe that will have an impact, you know. And so that is kind of what I'm hoping, because, like I said, when I start breaking it down from the research we've done, there isn't that much difference between some of these groups warring with each other on an ideological basis. And definitely

these extremists they literally cherry pick. But sometimes people don't know better. More people google Isis than Islam. Now, so what are they going to think? Can I ask? I know you can't say that much about this, but can I ask a very quick question? You said you're starting out with the Quran? Um, how do you plan on

dealing with the hadiths? And I should say, you know, I'm an outsider looking in UM, but my understanding is the hadiths, which are basically UM, the reports of what the pro fits said UM while he was living, and they kind of exploded after he died. Um, how are you going to go about treating those? Because that seems

to be where some of the confusion comes from. Yeah, so I mean he said the hitdi through the stories to the prophet, and three cents, three generations after the prophet died, these were collated to build a picture of the life of the prophet, which is what's called the Sunna, which is why kind of the major group of Muslim is called the Sydneys. They're the ones who followed this model. But you know how you have this whole thing about

fake news now right, how do you judge authority. There's a whole science in Islam about trying to figure out which one of these are true and which of these are fake. And a lot of the issue comes where things with a bit of dubious quality, potentially in terms of only one chain of narrators, for example, versus lots of people saying the same thing Chinese whispers style from Gibraltar to Kazakhstan and agreeing on the content those come through.

So people just hang their hats on just this one transmission and then say that women can't drive as an example. I think that again that need to be systematized with the help of the scholars, because what I see from my studies of Islam, and kind of the research recommissioned is that, look, you had a thousand years of Islamic caliphate and it wasn't like isis. It wasn't great, it wasn't perfect, But what you had was process and reasonable doubt.

For example, for amputation, um, you know, the whole Aladdin thing, Princess Jasmin who gets a hand grab because he's stolen an orange and then drop it off. There were eighty four preconditions for that under a thousand years. You know, they had to have seen you stealing three and a half thousand dollars worth of stuff from someone's pocket and you've kind of been hungry, and you had to have

two witnesses to that. You know, this whole stoning for adultery, you need to see four witnesses to penetration, which is kind of weird, but if you didn't have four witnesses to penetration, then the accusers would get lash eighty times. What you had was harsh punishments, but a massive amount of process. You've lost that process now and that's why you're seeing the really negative side of things. But again this needs to be systematically done, the whole community backing.

But this is the fun thing about data now, right, we can assemble data. It just needs to be done systematically. So you know, hopefully I'll plant the seed and those working with me well, and then it's up to the Islamic community to kind of take that forward, kind of google Wikipedia for Islam with a little bit of Ai thrown in, and we'll see how it grows. Again, this is going to take most of my life, but if it works, you know, it will help my kids at

the very least. That I really like that perspective. Before we wrap up, we just have a couple more minutes, um, but tell us a little bit about you also are interested in the you know, pursuing things regarding the refugee crisis. Tell us quickly about what you're working on there. Yeah, so this is actually my wife's project. It's called Humanitory. Basically, hopefully in the next she wants to give every refuge a biometric smartphone. Um so Galaxy S four equivalent costs

about forty five dollars. Now, this is really interesting because what you have is a group who really need to have help and access to information, who have lost their identity. Biometrics have a lot of ethical issues around them. In terms of fingerprint iris scans. But imagine giving a refugee a phone in coming to the UK. They can suddenly get a bank account, oyster card for the transport. But the most interesting thing is they can suddenly have access

to work. And this is about God us thinking about the future of work in terms of you go, you log in, you can start working for a charity. You can build up a biometric CV for yourself which shows who you are, and that's incredibly important, giving people back their identity. And again it's kind of like it's going to be difficult, but I think it's achievable because everyone

wants to help the refugees. This is forty fifty dollars when the average refugee costs three thousand to thirty dollars a year, and you know, as you can start building this at least it's an option. Because I don't know about you guys, but I'm scared about kind of the next five ten years, UM, kind of looking where global trade is going, looking where artificial intelligences go, looking when

jobs are going. So, you know, again, trying to do a little bit to help UM, but really trying to pull together a lot of different strings to do so all right, Ammad, most tack, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. So Joe, I think, um well, I think Amad has given himself a pretty hefty workload, right, Yeah, solve the sort of game theory stuff that's vexed opex OPEC for decades, uh, defeat extremism, and solve the refugee crisis. But I loved

love that conversation. I mean, we've I've talked to Mod before on TV. He's definitely one of the sort of more interesting people around and I like that, rather than just talk about all this stuff which we all do all the time, he actually has ideas that he's putting into actus and or trying to put into practice. Yeah. I think there's a tendency in market sometimes to just kind of throw your hands up and say, well that's the way it's always been, and people don't really think about,

well could you actually change the structure and make it different. Um, So it's really interesting to hear from someone who's actually trying to do that on a number of levels, absolutely, right, Like we just sort of just sort of accept Okay, this is how OPEC works, or this is the information

asymmetry that allows extremism to thrive. But I thought that was really interesting because it related to his ideas, related to a conversation that we had several months ago with Graham Would who wrote that book about Isis and it is very similar stuff, which is that in in Graham's view, the solution to combating extremism was not to dismiss the extremists or say something, you know, say catchphrases like oh, that's not really Islam or whatever, but to actually sort

of compete with them on the information front and say, no, here's more information, and actually out argue them with data. And so here's an example of what a MOD is doing that's very much along those lines. Yeah. Well, we'll have to get them on once the project has moved a little further and see how it's going. Yeah. No, but I think it's really cool. And also, again, like the refugee stuff, we we always talk about how awful it is, but how many people are actually trying to

think of something new that might might address it. Yeah. Didn't you ask me once where refugees charge their phones? That was that? Actually? Yeah? I mean, because you see all these photos of um, you know, Uh, you hear about you know, refugees using their phones to get across waters and stuff like that, and I was just thinking about the logistical aspects of that. It's not surprising that refugees have phones, of course, it's a mainstay technology all

around the world. But you know, you just think about like the challenge of actually using a phone while you're dealing with, you know, the challenges of being refugee. So the technical aspects are still very interesting to me. Yeah, for sure. I guess soon you might be asking where they're charging their biometric phones, right, hopefully so, and then we can see how the project is working. All right, should we leave it there, Let's do it. This has

been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart and you can follow Immad at imo Stock. Put knowledge to work and grow your business with c I T from transportation to healthcare to manufacturing, c I T opers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c I T dot com. Put Knowledge to Work