Over the last several months, Europe has seen its power costs soar. There are many drivers of it, but one factor has been a shift in Chinese energy consumption. While China has plenty of domestic coal resources, from time to time it imports quite a bit, depending on transportation costs. This can have major ramifications for prices outside of its borders. Meanwhile, China is undergoing a meaningful change to move off of coal and rely more on renewables and nuclear power. To help us understand wh...
Jan 31, 2022•42 min
Late last year, the big Chinese property developer Evergrande started running into severe financial distress, as its bonds tumbled and frustrated customers faced delays in getting their homes. Since then, it's gotten worse. Evergrande is still troubled, as are other property developers who have also run into stress. So what does it mean, and what are China's goals here? On this episode, we speak with Travis Lundy, an independent analyst on the Smartkarma platform, who has studied these companies...
Jan 27, 2022•46 min
The EV revolution is official on. Sales are soaring around the world as the internal combustion engine era starts to fade. But if you're just thinking about what's inside the car, you're missing some big stories. All kinds of industries and patterns of behavior are going to change because of the switch. On this episode, we speak with Nat Bullard, the Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, who walks us through all the various ramifications both inside and outside of the existing auto industry. Se...
Jan 24, 2022•55 min
If you wanted to buy a home in 2021, you probably found it a frustrating experience, rife with a shortage of options, and intense bidding wars. Well? Bad news: So far, things are even hotter in 2022. So what's going on? Where are all the homes disappearing to? Why is there nothing for sale? Why are people happy to place higher and higher bids? On this episode we speak with Mike Simonsen, the CEO and founder of the real estate data provider Altos Research, to explain the acute and long-term trend...
Jan 20, 2022•49 min
Near the end of 2021, Turkey's government undertook a bold measure to stabilize the lira after the currency got clobbered throughout much of the year. The basic idea is that the government would pay savers to lock up their currency in lira, and compensate them if it fell too far against the dollar. But can it work? Does it address the core problem of the Turkish economy? To understand more, and to get the perspective of outside investors, we speak with Paul McNamara, a fund manager at GAM and a ...
Jan 17, 2022•39 min
The Afghanistan economy was already in bad shape, with heavy reliance on foreign dollars, prior to the collapse of the government and the takeover by the Taliban. Since the fall, things have gotten even worse, with inflation accelerating and GDP plunging. There are multiple factors at work, though the main one is the cutting off of outside sources of dollars. On this episode we speak with Ajmal Ahmady, the former head of Afghanistan's central bank, on the difficult situation, and how the economy...
Jan 13, 2022•42 min
When people think about tools to fight inflation, usually things like taxes or monetary policy come to mind. But lately there’s been more discussion about corporate power (particularly concentrated corporate power) as a source of higher prices. So what can the government actually do? On this episode, we speak with Craig Seebald, a partner at Vinson & Elkins, and leader of the firm’s antitrust group, to understand how the law in this space gets applied. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy...
Jan 10, 2022•42 min
Agricultural commodities have generally surged in price over the last year. One commodity that's gone particularly wild is the coffee bean. Arabica beans — those at the premium end — are up about 100% since January 2021. So what's going on? Well, part of it is the generalized inflation, but like many other ags, weather has a lot to do with it. To start, bad weather in Brazil has had a negative impact on supply. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Ryan Delany, a longtime player in the s...
Jan 06, 2022•54 min
The Turkish lira was incredibly volatile in 2021. After getting crushed and falling to record levels, it bounced back in the middle of December after the government announced an unconventional plan to encourage Turkish citizens to keep their money in lira rather than converting to dollars. But how does it work? And can it actually work over the long term? On this episode we speak with Lütfullah Bingöl, an economist at Albaraka Türk Katılım Bankası on how the program might actually work. He liken...
Jan 03, 2022•45 min
Everyone's talking about Web 3.0 (or Web3), but there's a lot of ambiguity about what exactly it's going to look like or even what it is. Nonetheless, there's a lot of enthusiasm about a crypto-based, decentralized internet. So to learn more, we talk to one of the most interesting builders in the space. Mike Demarais is the co-founder of Rainbow.me, which makes an Ethereum wallet that emphasizes high-quality design both in terms of use and aesthetics. He explains his vision for both his company ...
Dec 27, 2021•53 min
2021 was a historic year for markets and the broader economy. For the first time, seemingly in ages, there was a serious shift in realized inflation and the broader inflation outlook. This has ramifications, potentially, for risk assets, bonds, and, of course, the Fed. To help break things down, and how to think about the situation, we speak with Jon Turek, the author of the Cheap Convexity Blog and founder of JST Advisors, to understand what comes next. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy i...
Dec 23, 2021•49 min
There's no single measure we can look at to tell us whether supply chains are improving or not. There are some signs of easing (such as the number of containers sitting at the ports) but other signs are still getting worse (such as the number of ships waiting to dock). So what's really going on? And are the White House's efforts at easing the strain actually bearing fruit? On this episode we speak with Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, who we last spoke to in the summer...
Dec 20, 2021•40 min
Over a million people are members of a subreddit called r/AntiWork, whose slogan is "Unemployment for all, not just the rich." While the page and movement have been around for awhile, discontent with the state of the labor market has been growing since the pandemic. Many workers are refusing to accept the conditions and pay that were the norm prior to the virus. On this episode, we speak with Doreen Ford, who also goes by Doreen Cleyre. She is a moderator of the AntiWork subreddit as well as the...
Dec 16, 2021•59 min
The humble wooden shipping pallet is probably not something that most people think about too much. But it's a huge deal. At Virginia Tech, there's a whole center that focuses on pallets and packaging. And like many other things right now, the price has surged, and now everyone is aware of them. So what caused the price to soar and when will things normalize? On this episode we speak with Marshall White, a Professor Emeritus at Virginia Tech, and the country's leading expert on the wooden pallets...
Dec 13, 2021•53 min
There have been a lot of stories about the challenges of keeping schools open over the last two years, much to the consternation of many parents. But, for many students, going to school involves first getting on a school bus. And that industry is facing its own stress. As with many other industries, school bus operators around the country are saying we're in a drivers shortage. On this Odd Lots, we speak with Corey Muirhead, Executive Vice President of the Logan Bus Company — the largest school ...
Dec 09, 2021•52 min
The stock market has basically been a one-way ship for 20 months now. So of course, some people get nervous about that, and start wondering if we're in some unsustainable bubble that can only end badly. So what are the biggest risks lurking out there? On this episode, we speak with Richard Bookstaber, a veteran of numerous firms, having done risk management at Bridgewater, the University of California, and elsewhere. He's also the author of the book A Demon Of Our Own Design, which prophetically...
Dec 06, 2021•50 min
Money continues to pour into the crypto space at a rapid clip. Institutions, VCs, private investors all seem to have gotten the bug over the last year. But, of course, the big gains have come to those who have been in the space for a while. One of the leading investing institutions in crypto is Paradigm, which was founded during 2018's crypto winter. The firm just announced a new $2.5 billion fund, which is heretofore the biggest crypto fund ever raised. We speak with the firm's co-founder Matt ...
Dec 02, 2021•52 min
Normally, economists expect a somewhat stable relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate. More job openings = more people are employed. Lately, however, the shape of this relationship has changed. Job openings are absolutely soaring. And yet total employment in the economy is well below pre-pandemic levels. On this episode, we speak with Thomas Lubik, a senior advisor in the Research Department at the Richmond Fed, who has been researching and writing about this unusual state of...
Nov 29, 2021•48 min
Most of the big retailers have assured their customers that shelves will be stocked for the holidays this year. Nonetheless, there has been a lot of anxiety about shortages and supply chain disruptions all year. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with John Porcari, Port Envoy to the White House Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force. He's been coordinating the efforts to get the containers moving again. He explains what's been accomplished so far, and what more needs to be done. See omnystudio.c...
Nov 25, 2021•34 min
Inflation is hot. You can debate why that is, or how long it will last, or who is to blame, or whether elevated inflation is a worthwhile price to pay for a fast recovery. But, regardless, it exists. So what now? Should the Fed pivot into inflation fighting mode? On this Odd Lots, we speak with Jason Furman, an economics professor at Harvard, and the former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama. He thinks inflation will come in hotter than expected next year, and that i...
Nov 22, 2021•50 min
The corporate bond market is huge and important, allowing U.S. companies to tap investors for much needed borrowing. But even as sales of bonds have been booming in recent years thanks to low interest rates, the overall structure of the credit market and the way such debt is traded has been criticized for years. While stocks trade electronically on exchanges that provide instant and competitive quotes, a majority of corporate bond trades are still done over the phone or on platforms that tend to...
Nov 18, 2021•56 min
This year has brought fresh awareness to the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor, the big manufacturer, has become a household name. But there's another giant that hardly anyone outside of the chip industry has heard of. ASML is a Dutch company that's at the cutting edge of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography — the most advanced technology for reliably printing transistors onto a chip. If you want to produce the most advanced chips, you must buy equipment from ASML. Bu...
Nov 15, 2021•51 min
Inflation is running at its fastest pace in over 30 years. And one upward contributor to it is higher food prices. There are all kinds of things going on within food, but over the last year we've seen strong price increases in wheat, corn, and soy, which feed into higher prices for meat and dairy. There is a lot going on here. There is high demand globally. There are unusual weather conditions all around the world. There's surging fertilizer costs, and much more. On this episode, we speak with A...
Nov 11, 2021•59 min
These days, commodities around the world are on a tear. But earlier this year, there was a lot of fixation on one in particular: lumber. Lumber went absolutely parabolic in the spring before collapsing rapidly. What's interesting is that this collapse was not due to a slowdown in housing per se. Housing is booming. Instead, it was a variety of idiosyncratic factors (including lumber storage availability) that caused the wild move. So, for this episode, we invited back Stinson Dean, the founder a...
Nov 08, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Inflation is elevated these days, and markets around the world are pricing in rate hikes. However, risk assets like stocks are doing just fine. There seems to be some presumption that any Fed rate-hiking cycle will be mild and that ultimately inflation will settle down without too much further pain. Matt King, the Global Markets Strategist at Citigroup, isn't convinced. On this episode, he explains why what we're seeing now is the impact of a big "whack" to the global economy, one which has no n...
Nov 04, 2021•55 min
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Nov 01, 2021•57 min
In recent weeks, the White House has attempted to make a greater effort to improve the functioning of supply chains. One effort includes getting the Port of Los Angeles, and the various companies who operate there, to operate 24/7. But this is going to be a herculean task. On this episode we speak with Craig Fuller, the Founder and CEO of the information and data company FreightWaves to talk about the ports, trucking, and why it's so difficult to modernize these markets. See omnystudio.com/liste...
Oct 28, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Official inflation measures in the U.S. remain elevated and so, of course, this has a lot of people thinking about the 1970s. Not only was this the last time the U.S. had a sustained period of high inflation, it was the period during which many of today's policymakers really started to form their views about managing the economy. On this episode, we speak with Dan Alpert, a managing partner at Westwood Capital, and a fellow at the Cornell Law School, about his new report on inflation risks, and ...
Oct 25, 2021•59 min
Bitcoin just hit an all-time high and crypto mania is in full swing. One of this year's big winners has to be Axie Infinity, a blockchain-based game, whose token AXS has surged over 200x just since the start of the year. Axie is a pioneer of what's come to be known as a "play to earn" model, whereby participants who play the game can actually make money. Its popularity, for example, has exploded in the Philippines, where numerous people are making a living from it. But how does it work? And is i...
Oct 21, 2021•55 min
Back in January, we spoke with Jeff Currie, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. At the time, he was bullish on the commodities complex for several reasons. Since then, of course, we've seen several markets go on an absolute tear and to a degree that's taken even him by surprise. The bad news for commodities consumers? We still haven't hit max pain. On this episode, we speak again with Jeff about what's driving prices higher and why he sees stronger price increases over the ...
Oct 18, 2021•44 min
