We talk a lot on Odd Lots about the idea of investing. But what's it like to actually have to put money to work in some of the trickiest investing environments in history? David Schawel was an equity analyst who suddenly became the manager of a portfolio of subprime mortgage bonds during the worst of the credit crunch. Now he manages fixed-income portfolios for New River Investments. We talk to him about what it was like to manage a subprime portfolio back in 2008, the differences between stocks...
Jul 24, 2017•21 min
Financial markets around the world are stuck in a long period of low volatility and boredom. But one pocket is seeing some wild action -- grains. Spring wheat (a form of high-protein wheat grown in the northern Midwest) has been on a tear, alongside action in soy and corn. What explains the whipsaw? Joe and Tracy speak with Tommy Grisafi, a longtime trader who works as a risk manager at Advance Trading, a firm that helps farmers take advantage of financial markets. Grisafi walks us through the h...
Jul 17, 2017•31 min
It's no secret that a lot of people in finance like to bet on things. But how many of them take the time to actually beat the house in gambling? On this week's Odd Lots, we talk to Joe Peta, a former Lehman Brothers trader, and the author of "Trading Bases," a book about betting on baseball. Peta started focusing on baseball after a freak accident (getting hit by an ambulance) gave him lots of time to think about applying his trading knowledge to baseball. Eventually he launched a $1 million bas...
Jul 10, 2017•28 min
Earlier this month, Dana Gas, a UAE-based company, rocked the world of Islamic finance by announcing that one of its Shariah-compliant bonds was, well, no longer Shariah-compliant. On this week's episode of Odd Lots, we speak to veteran Dubai-based journalist Frank Kane about the rise of Islamic finance (what it is, how it works, why it's grown so fast) and why the Dana Gas announcement is such a big deal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Jul 03, 2017•24 min
On the TV show "Billions," one of the most important characters is Wendy Rhoades, the psychologist at Axe Capital who helps traders get out of their slumps. What viewers may not realize is that the job exists in real life. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Brett Steenbarger, a professor at SUNY Upstate Medical University and author of several books on trading psychology. Steenbarger, who has worked with several funds, explains to us what he actually with traders and how is work is similar t...
Jun 23, 2017•25 min
By now everyone's heard of Bitcoin, and probably has an opinion on it. But the world of cryptocurrencies has a new object of fascination: ICOs. Whereas the tech boom in the 90s was characterized by an obsession with IPOs, these ICOs (initial coin offerings) are cryptographic tokens being sold onto the market for hungry investors eager to get in on new ventures. And while some ICOs are connected to companies, others are connected to "protocols" that aren't even recognizably corporations. Confused...
Jun 16, 2017•27 min
America has had many well-known booms and busts in its history: Real estate, internet stocks, Beanie Babies... too many to list. But did you know there was once a catfish gold rush? Yep, starting in the 1970s, farmers in the south, in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Arkansas started devoting thousands of acres to catfish farming in the hopes that catfish would become America's next great white meat. Joining us on this week's Odd Lots is Mike McCall, the editor of the Catfish Jou...
Jun 09, 2017•30 min
For the past few years, everyone in markets has been talking about nothing. Market moves have been subdued and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, recently sank to its lowest in about three decades. We speak with Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of derivatives strategy at Macro Risk Advisors and an expert in volatility. He explains what the VIX actually measures, why it's so low, and how betting against sharp moves in the market became one of the hottest ...
Jun 02, 2017•31 min
Phil Hellmuth is one of poker's biggest stars. His success is undeniable, as he's won 14 bracelets at the World Series of Poker, more than anyone else. And his outsize personality at the table has earned him the nickname "The Poker Brat." But while Hellmuth may be known for his outbursts and colorful behavior, he's actually one of the most disciplined players the game has ever seen. On this week's Odd Lots, Phil explains how he manages risk, how he avoids going on "tilt," how he prepares for big...
May 26, 2017•36 min
It's no secret that international trade has been criticized lately. But why exactly are countries generally happy to trade within their borders -- from one state or town to another, for example -- but more reluctant to trade across international ones? And why are countries so focused on making things domestically? On this edition of the Odd Lots podcast we speak to an over-achiever in the field of economics who specializes in trade and is known for rigorous research that has included poring over...
May 19, 2017•35 min
Avocado toast, unicorn frappuccinos, and kale salads. Taking photos of your food and putting them on Instagram is a now a huge trend that's transforming markets in more ways than one. In this edition of the Odd Lots podcast we talk about how photogenic foods are impacting commodities prices, and how the retail market is actively courting Instagram 'influencers' who can promote their business. We speak with Amanda Topper, a food blogger who works as associate director of foodservice research at M...
May 12, 2017•33 min
When you think about the Middle East what springs to mind? Perhaps oil, maybe political instability, terrorism or even war. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast we speak to someone who's trying to tackle the region's biggest issues in new and creative ways. Emad Mostaque is the co-chief investment officer of Capricorn Fund Managers Ltd. and a long-time specialist in Gulf markets who successfully predicted the collapse in oil prices that's currently causing a headache for many Middle Ea...
May 05, 2017•34 min
On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Hikaru Nakamura, one of the best chess players in the world. Currently ranking in the top seven, Nakamura achieved grandmaster status at a younger age than Bobby Fischer did. These days in addition to chess, Nakamura actively trades options, and on this episode he talks about the similarities and differences between the two pursuits. We also talked about poker, what it takes to be a pro chess player, and how computers and artificial inte...
Apr 28, 2017•38 min
When most people analyze the stock market, they look at stuff like revenues, earnings, valuations, and economic conditions. But some people like to look at the Billboard music charts or what kinds of films are popular at any given moment. On this week's Odd Lots, we talk to Matt Lampert, the director of research at the Socionomics Institute, which attempts to analyze the market by looking at the nation's social mood. And there's no better way to examine society's mood than by looking at pop cult...
Apr 21, 2017•29 min
What if you woke up tomorrow and found the U.S. stock market was closed for good? That happened to investors in the Russian market after the communist revolution in 1917, leading to huge losses for people who had put their money in what was then one of the major economic and political powers in the world. The Russian example was brought up last month by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who sounded the alarm over the rise of populism and its impact on markets. In this edition of the ...
Apr 13, 2017•26 min
History, as you may have heard, has a tendency to repeat. But does it repeat in ways that are measurable and predictable? We speak with Peter Borish, a veteran investor and trader who is currently chief strategist at the Quad Group. His experience reaches back three decades to when he worked for the legendary Paul Tudor Jones in 1985. Throughout his career, Borish has studied cycles, looking for patterns in data and human behavior, to help him anticipate turning points in markets and the economy...
Apr 07, 2017•40 min
One of the most fascinating market phenomenons is the bubble. When they occur, fortunes are made and lost, and the full spectrum of human emotions, from fear to greed, are on display. But what defines a bubble exactly, and how do you know when you're actually seeing one? This week on Odd Lots, we speak with Harvard Business School economist Robin Greenwood, who has figured out the key characteristics that all stock market bubbles have in common. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informatio...
Mar 31, 2017•30 min
Plenty of people pay their kids an allowance to teach them the value of hard work and earning money. But our guest on this week’s Odd Lots podcast takes it to the next level. Toby Nangle is a fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, who also happens to be fascinated with the question of how money and banking really work. So rather than just give his kids a typical allowance, he uses their spending money to run monetary experiments. How do children react to higher rates on savings? How ...
Mar 27, 2017•30 min
"Buy local" is a mantra that has appeal across the political spectrum. Small communities have preached this gospel for a long time. Our current president advocates a version on a national scale. So how do you put it into practice? One experiment has been taking place in the Berkshires -- a region in the U.S. state of Massachusetts -- that has its own currency called Berkshares. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Alice Maggio, the executive director of the currency, about how a region...
Mar 24, 2017•30 min
A few weeks ago on the Odd Lots podcast, we talked to Paul Schmelzing, a Ph.D candidate at Harvard, who explained how the bull market in U.S. Treasuries could come to a screeching halt. This week we examine the other side of the debate. Our guest is Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center in Mount Kisco, New York. He explains how a combination of structural factors in the global economy and massive levels of debt could depress interest rates on governm...
Mar 10, 2017•29 min
If you have any interest at all in finance, then it's mandatory to have seen the 1983 movie "Trading Places." You remember, right? Two wealthy Philadelphia commodity brokers bet on whether anyone, even down-and-out Eddie Murphy, can be trained to become a successful trader. What you might not realize is that something very similar happened in real life. In this week's Odd Lots, we examine the amazing tale of the Turtle Traders. In 1983, successful commodities speculator Richard Dennis took out a...
Mar 03, 2017•37 min
There's a widespread sense that something remains broken in the global economy. Despite a comeback in official measures of economic performance, like GDP and the unemployment rate, there's a widespread sense of disillusionment and discontentment with the status quo. Clair Brown, an economics professor at UC Berkeley teaches a class on Buddhist Economics and has written a book on the subject. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Brown argues that the application of Buddhist principles ...
Feb 24, 2017•29 min
Among the biggest trends in the world of markets is the rise of passive investing. Rather than pay high fees to active mutual fund managers (who often fail to beat the market), people are pouring money into passive strategies that track major indices, but with little cost. So what are the ramifications of this trend for investors who choose to remain active? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Michael Mauboussin, who heads global financial strategies at Credit Suisse and is not just a...
Feb 17, 2017•30 min
Creating a new form of money is always tough. Will it hold its value? Will people trust it? Will people use it? All these challenges are even tougher if you're in the middle of a political chaos. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Rebecca Spang, a history professor at Indiana University and the author of a book about the monetary history of the French Revolution. Her book examines the disastrous attempt to create a new land-backed currency, the Assignat, in the late 1700s. The discussion she...
Feb 10, 2017•28 min
There are all sorts of reasons why markets break down. A lack of trust. Incomplete information. Divergent incentives. A lack of experienced actors. So it's hard to imagine a trickier market than kidnapping. Emotions are running rampant. You know very little about your counterparty. And there's no guarantee that anyone will stick to an agreement. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Anja Shortland, who is the research group leader for Political Economy of Peace and Security at King's College in...
Feb 03, 2017•30 min
It's almost a truism that better-educated people earn more money. But suppose you're not interested in a normal job? What if you want to go into the mafia? Well, it turns out that you should still stay in school. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Giovanni Mastrobuoni about the relationship between salary and educational attainment in organized crime. He's the co-author of a paper titled "Returns to Education in Criminal Organizations: Did Going to College Help Michael Corleone?" Bas...
Jan 27, 2017•26 min
The Islamic State is mostly discussed in terms of its threat to the safety and security of the world. But as a geopolitical entity, its leadership has to deal with mundane considerations such as operating a financial system. So how does it work? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, the first in a series on money, markets and crime, we speak with Graeme Wood, the author of a new book about ISIS, about the monetary system and how it fits into ISIS ideology. We also discuss how ISIS uses the internet t...
Jan 20, 2017•28 min
The stock market is currently in one of its longest bull markets ever, but that doesn't hold a candle to what's going on bonds. According to Paul Schmelzing, a PhD candidate at Harvard and a visiting researcher at the Bank of England, you have to go back more than 500 years (!) to find a bull market in bonds longer than than the one we're experiencing now. After bonds tumbled since last summer (especially since the election) there's a lot of interest in whether we're on the cusp of a major downt...
Jan 13, 2017•27 min
Welcome to the start of the new year! 2016 defied almost everyone's expectations, but that won't stop us from making predictions for 2017. On this episode of Odd Lots, we're joined by our Bloomberg News colleagues as we look ahead and forecast what will transpire in markets, politics, finance, economics and deals. Featuring: Max Abelson, Ed Hammond, Dan Moss, Megan Murphy and Mike Regan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Jan 06, 2017•29 min
It was quite a year, 2016! Trump and Brexit alone made it one for the history books. But there was more than political upheaval. In this end-of-year episode of Odd Lots, we speak to five reporters and editors from Bloomberg News to find out what they thought were the most interesting and important stories of the year. Among the huge stories that you might have missed: A momentous turn by the Bank of Japan, the incredible significance of the Mexican Peso, and of course, a Hamptons house party cal...
Dec 23, 2016•31 min
