The over/under and mailbag episode

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Welcome to another episode of Nos Adietas, part of the Sounder Heart Podcast Network, sponsored by Fulpole Wines and our subscribers.

We're recording on Monday, February sixteenth, two thousand twenty six. I'm your host, Jeremiah Shan. Today I am joined again by Aaron Kempo and our engineer Lickett. First off, Aaron. Welcome back. It's been way too long since we recorded together. It's it's good to see your face. Good to hear your voice.

Yeah, thank you. Uh Ditto here. It's been I wouldn't say too long, but it's been the right amount of time. But I'm I'm excited to I'm I'm definitely excited to get back to it. I'm excited for the season. This is what it always feels real, right? Is when we do the first uh Versus Exactly. Pre you know, preseason uh preseason episode. I mean, you've been doing them all.

No, I know, but this is where it starts to hit the where it's like, Well we got we really got stuff to talk about now. Yeah, uh sure. It's nice. Uh yeah. Uh yeah, I th I think we'd plan to uh to record if anything like super crazy happened uh and then the one super crazy thing that happened, you were in Spain. So I was, yeah, exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Uh yeah. So just to give you a everyone a bit of a rundown what we're gonna do today.

Uh, we're gonna talk a little bit about the preseason game that w just happened. We're gonna talk about this Reebaker Whiting move that is actually not yet officially official as of the recording of this, but I'll There's n no doubt that that's that's happening.

Uh, and then we're gonna go through some over unders, which I would really you know, we did it last year. I think we're gonna try to make it a an annual fixture. And then we're gonna close out the show with uh in our final segment, we're gonna do our first mailbag of twenty twenty six.

But Aaron, uh I know you didn't actually watch the Louisville game because it was not streamed and you were not there, but Based on what you have observed, what's your your impression of preseason and you know what you've seen so far? Yeah, I mean I think that they uh they've looked like they're in preseason, which you would expect, right? But there are certainly some positive things um to take away from the preseason. I think Osazi de Rosario is the the top of the list, right? Like

Um he has made a case for himself being the starter on on day one. I don't know if that's gonna persist once everybody is back to full health, but he he certainly has earned a look, right? And that's that's pretty exciting. Um and I, you know, I nothing that I saw in preseason, and I'll admit that I was not Sitting there with a pen and paper watching every game with wrapped attention, but I didn't see anything in the preseason that concerned me. I mean, I think that

This is a veteran team um that we kinda know what we're gonna get from them and it'll be interesting to see tactically how things shake out. Um both at the start of the season when uh, you know, th the team is not as deep as they hopefully will be in a month or so. Uh and then also once everybody's back and healthy and and uh

you know, we kind of see how the experiments they're they're they will be doing early in the season shake out. Um I'm not super excited about the prospect of Jordan Moore playing wide again, but I think if it's for you know stop stop gap I can I can live with it. Um Uh I could have lived with it more if Doo wasn't the the likely left back, but I mean, you know, who who knows? Like maybe he's not gonna be the left back. Maybe he's gonna be a left center back and a three center back setup.

Uh all all still things I think that that'll you know, we'll have to wait and see on. But uh you know, I nothing that's gonna happen in preseason is ever shy of an injury or something like that, right? Uh is gonna make me that concerned. But overall I thought this, you know, the team looked has looked good. Um some some bright spots for sure, some exciting things to watch.

And uh yeah, I'm I'm ready for the season. It's it it feels like they are um last season I felt a little bit of dread going into the year just because of the injuries they had, because things came so late and things got kind of shaken up late. Um this year I feel pretty good about where they're at right now, even though they are still missing some key.

Yeah, their their depth at center back is definitely some concern. They do not effectively have any natural center backs beyond their starters. Now the good news is that Yamar and Jackson Reagan are healthy and would presumably be playing for the foreseeable like there the there's not fixture congestion early in the season, so that's good. But yeah, there there look like there's gonna be three changes, three notable changes to the starting lineup.

going into the the first game or at least the early stage of the game. Uh Andrew Thomas looks like he is the the starting goalkeeper. That's a another one that has not been officially announced, but all s signs indicate that he's gonna be the goalkeeper. The biggest sign, of course, being that he's on the cover of the Sounder at Heart magazine, which hope everyone is going to go by. Uh, but uh we'll get into that later. Uh the other change is

Hasani Dotson replacing Obed Vargas. He looks very comfortable. Assuming Christian Roldan is healthy, which I think he will be healthy for the season opener. Uh but if he's not, maybe we'll see Snyder Brunel or s someone like that. But I'm not gonna count him as one of the changes. And then the other change, as you alluded to, is it looks like the Sounders are gonna try Jordan Morris out on the left. And originally, I assume the thought was they'll play Danny Masofsky up at forward.

And then it turned into Osaza de Rosario. And Osaza de Rosario, given the opportunity, has You know, he's it's been two games, so I don't wanna two preseason games, so I don't wanna go crazy about this, but he's scored two goals in each of those two games, and he just looks the part. You know, he looks confident. He looks like he is, he's got a big body. He's looked very good around goal. He's he hits a very heavy shot. Uh, you know it.

We'll go over this a little bit in the Over Unders cause he is uh someone that we get into but I I'm a little shocked to say that Osase de Rosario seems to have at least temporarily won the starting number nine job, which is not would have not been on my list of possibilities at the start of preseason.

Yeah, I mean I think that he ha had an opportunity to get some playing time just because of the injuries that the team has right now with Masovsky being out, with Dale Vega being out, etc. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And he took advantage of them and

you know, i is it the choice I would be making? I I don't know that it would, but I don't think Osase de Rosario's performance in preseason would be the reason I wouldn't be making that. Right. Uh and I do think that there is something to be said for the fact that If you tell people you need to show me that you need to

I need to be playing you that you deserve this playing time and they go out and do it. Right. You kind of have to reward that in a situation like this, right? Where everything is kind of wide open and uh You know, it it's uh it and I'm I'm glad to some degree that that he's getting rewarded for that performance. And I I I do have high hopes for him. Uh I just that Jordan Morris knew who left side maybe

feel not not feel not feel uh nervous is I guess one way to put it. It doesn't make me feel very good. Uh yeah and they I will say that they look better together this preseason than they have looked most of the time that we've seen this. And Nuhoo does seem like he has made some improvements to his approach. Like he seems to be better at picking his spots. I'm not overjoyed at this development.

And somewhat related to though somewhat related to all of this, I think, is the decision to trade or transfer, depending on how you wanna call it, cash for player trade, I guess technically is what they call it. Yeah. Reed Baker Whiting to Nashville. Uh the sounders are getting

Apparently eight hundred thousand dollars. They're gonna keep a twenty percent sell on. That feels like a fair market value to me, but it does not feel like a number that was big enough to say, Oh yeah, we gotta make this move, unless There was something else going on in the sense that they really like the idea of maybe playing Areola or Rothrock at left back and that they weren't really sure what to do with Reed, which is a possibility.

And, you know, they've also been toying with this idea of, you know, traditionally the Sounders have built out in a three-two. So that would be with three center backs and two defensive midfielders. And Sh they seem to have been toying with this idea in preseason of building out more in a two-three. So you would end up w the way that would look is you would probably have the two center backs and then you'd have

Alex Roldon really playing as more of a defensive midfielder and then your left back would be almost would be more of a a winger and they would be farther up the pitch. And so that kind of flip flops the way that they had been playing the build out, where Uh Alex Rodon was oftentimes the highest player on the pitch in the build out and they had the the left back kind of dropping into more of a center back role. So it's a little bit of a tweak on that formation.

But more broadly, just what do you what do you make of this Reed Baker Whiting situation? I was certainly surprised by it. That was not something that I I thought that they were trying to do. They had just signed him to a U twenty two contract a few months ago. Yeah, it it's a it's a strange one. Um, I think in a vacuum, like you you look at the the transfer fee or cash trade amount, whatever they want to call it, you look at the sell on, um, you you look at the fact that he really is

most likely blocked from getting a significant amount of playing time this season, barring injury. And it's hard to say, nah, this is a bad deal, right? I think that eight hundred K with that Seban is about right because if he hits his if he hits his upside you know, with with Nashville and and get sold for a lot of money are still doing pretty well there.

Um, so I don't have a problem with the deal in a vacuum. Uh, especially given that Brian Schmetzer just very clearly feels differently about Nuhu than I do and wants him to be a starting left back, and that's so it that shouldn't really even factor into how

Yeah. Um the the issue that I have though is in the larger context of the team and the moves they made in the offseason. They've sold Danny Leva, which another very similar move, right? I think they got fair value for him. Uh he I think wanted to go. He's he's done well. Um in in Mexico so far, and I I'm super happy for him. Uh they moved Obad Vargas, who another situation where

I I'm thrilled that they got something for him, that he ended up going where he wanted to go. Worked out really well for everyone. Uh but his replacement was Sasani Dotson, who I I like a lot, but I think it's fair to say is not the player Obed Vargas is, right? So you're downgrading. Certainly not the upside. Yeah. Um uh Leva's replacement was uh Pek Pekovitz.

Yeah. Yeah. Who who I think has some upside. I like, I'm excited about. Um, but could very easily be a a big downgrade on Danny Leva. And and now we're losing Rebaker Whiting and w we're making Paul Rothrock a backup left back, apparently, Paul Areola, who I think is a great left wing back, but there are a lot of questions about him as as a left back and a traditional back four.

And so you you look at the players that have left and Obed, obviously a key player, otherwise more you know, fringy players, rotational players, but the only real additions they've made have just been to to sort of a sand pad. And I like the fact that there's a path to to minutes for Snyder Brunel. Um and you know, and I think like I I it's not that I'm upset about any of these moves even taken as a whole. They're just This one especially is kind of like, okay, so what's the plan?

Kinda kinda move. Well yeah, and I and I I will s agree with you there. Like I've been trying to sort of understand the plan, and I will say one element of it that I didn't realize initially was that the Sounders apparently still had some wiggle room in their in maxing out what they can convert from

cash to gam. And so I I I look it sounds like about a million and a half of the transfer fee they got for our obed was payable this year and then a million next year, which extends the window that you can kind of cash out the The, uh... the gam on that, I believe. But also it it left some room that they could still convert. So it's like you take the six fifty or so, six hundred fifty, seven hundred they got for Danny Leva. You take the eight hundred they got for

For Reed and the 1.5, presumably, that they're getting for Obed. And that's 3 million gam. Now that's a lot of the sounders now have a very significant GAM war chest that they can choose to do a lot of different things with. You would like to think that they have a plan for the summer, that if they can that if they need to bolster the roster, they will have the ability to do that. And I know everyone is gonna sit here and go, Well, we've heard this story before.

Uh I will note that this is different. This is not require the sounders to actually spend ownership money. This is money that is already sort of in the team. And so it's a lot easier to go and trade like make a gam trade. or bring someone from within the league that you need to use some gam on to to fit under the salary cap or whatever. So I I would think that the chances of them making a move this summer are

Higher now than they've ever been. And so in that way, it kind of makes sense. And I guess if they felt secure, again, like if if Reed was not really in their plans and that sort of seems to be what this move indicates. No one's told me that, but that is seemed to be the implication here. It you know, it makes sense, but I I'm with you that, you know, part of what made this team

So intriguing is that all this depth that they had and they seem to have gotten rid of a lot of that depth. Now they've replaced it in other ways, but You know, maybe you can argue that there's a higher upside, but it's less proven. Like I really like Danny Leva as a as an emerge you know, as as your second or third option at number ten and and kind of being able to fill in in the central midfielder. I really liked Reed Baker Whiting as as your fill in left back. I really like

You know, I liked having Obed Vargas. You know, these were all good players. And so, you know, but on the other hand, you know. I guess they're showing that they're willing to move these homegrown players. That was sort of a knock against them for a long time is okay, you're you're promoting the fact that you have all these homegrowns, but what are you doing with them? And I mean they what they were doing with them was playing'em and and

getting minutes out of them on the first team. But this is showing another side of it. You know, and and I could see how maybe this is all part of a long-term plan to kind of build value of saying like these we can move these players on. And if they succeed at these other teams, that's even better for us. Yeah, I mean it's I think that the the the thing that concerns me, and this is more of a concern just from a an optics and vibe standpoint.

than a real concern because I I I think most likely this is what they're planning to do, and I think that it probably makes sense. I don't think they're going to run through all that game. this summer. No. I don't think they're spending that money. Frankly. I think they'll probably see how thing I don't think they're making another move in this window. I I would if they do, it's probably gonna be a minor depth type move. Maybe they go find a depth left left back or something like that, right?

Um, but I think most likely they're gonna see how things shake out and address whatever they feel like is the most pressing concern in the summer window. I don't think it's gonna be a DP level player. No, I think it's you know. And so it's gonna be very underwhelming, right?

And they're just going to use this to sort of ensure that they can keep the roster at this level for as long as they can because you you have to prepare for the future in that way, right? Like when you you're roster building.

philosophy is what the Sounders roster building philosophy is, which for the record I think is the right one generally, which is we want the best possible players that we can fit under the cap at every position and we want to spread the talent throughout. We don't want l weak links in the squad. And I think that makes a lot of sense. But it it's not as exciting sometimes. I mean one of the common laments

One of the common laments you hear is like, look at all these other teams making these big splashy signings and the Sounders are just replacing guys that they've sold. And it's true, but they're not in a position where they have to go out and make those big splashes. Right. And that that is something that I think that gets overlooked sometimes. But it's not as sexy. It's not as exciting. It doesn't give people the same level of excitement. So and I do fear that if

They get into a situation like they did last year where they get hit with some injuries early on or they're struggling to to find their tactical identity or whatever it is, and they get off to a slow start. God forbid something happens to New Who, he gets hurt.

and you're you're stuck having to play Paul Rothrock or Paul Ariola at left back and they're struggling and it's it's leading to drop points. I think the narratives are gonna get really bad and I think the optics are gonna get really bad and whether or not it's the right strategy I just I I do sometimes worry that the Sounders

don't care about that stuff enough, right? Their philosophy is we're gonna do the right thing that we need to do to win games and build the most competitive team that we can. And people will come along with us in the end. And the reality is that people don't always come along. You know, they have lost their hands on them.

Yeah, and uh it'll be interesting there's there's a few more changes to way the way the Sounders are running their business this year that um I'm curious to see how they work. You know, on on one hand, they do feel like they're a little anti consumer. You know, one of them is that you ha if you want full refund, if you want to get full credit for your season tickets, you gotta return'em four days in advance, which is

two days longer than it used to be. If you're only two days, you get seventy five percent Credit. The good the upshot to this is that it encourages people to use their tickets and to not just sort of return them at the last minute when they can't be resold essentially. Uh and then similarly, they're cutting the the entry half an hour so you can only get into the stadium an hour before the game instead of an hour and a half before the game.

In a way that doesn't feel great. You know, you like to give people choices, but there's probably something we said about you know, not having as many people just sort of, you know, to like kind of compress the time that people need to get into the stadium so there's a little bit more of a an energy you know, shortly before the game. I don't I don't know how that one will work out. I'm curious to see if either one of those things end up

Really improving the the atmosphere at the games, which I think everyone agrees is just not been what it used to be. And so they are kind of looking for ways to to change that. Now, like you said, one good way change it would be to i just sort of i increasing the excitement around the team outside of game days. You know, last year the games were a lot more fun. They they scored a lot more goals.

I would say that the the quality on the pitch, the or the entertainment quality on the pitch was about as good as it's ever been, but there was an element of Okay, but we've seen you know, it's the same guys that we've been seeing before. But at they also had, you know, the the League's cup final was one of the most exciting days at Lumen Field in history.

you know, the the Club World Cup games against Athletico and Botafogo and PSG were were really kind of must attend events. So I don't know. It's it'll be interesting this year to see how this all goes. Um I think that was the I'm trying to think if there was anything else. I I guess I wrote it down here, so I should just look at my notes.

Uh yeah, I guess that's that's th those are the main topics we wanted to hit. But let's before we go to the mailbag, we do have these over-unders that we want to get to and we can have a little bit of a discussion about these. So Aaron, um I guess I'll I'll just start off. I I came up with all of these over unders.

But we can kind of trade off reading them. Uh I don't I'm not great I'm still not sure if I'm how I how good at this I am. But I we well we we did the important thing this year, which was We did point fives. I don't think we did that last year. So we did not do that later. Driving people crazy. So I think I think we we did pretty well there. Um yeah.

So hey, that's a good start. And we did get some feedback from folks, and I think we had a couple of of uh suggestions in here as well. We did, we did. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So

Let's start off with this one. Pedro de la Vega appearances. And I will note that he had thirty seven last year, which is Frankly, more than I would have guessed. Uh he he essentially he missed thirteen games, but that's a lot of appearance. Thirty seven appearances is a lot across all competitions. But he does He does start the year injured. He's probably gonna miss, you know, all competitions at least 10 games just right off of jump.

25 and a half is what I put the overunder at. Aaron, what do you think? I took the over here. Um, I think that uh he looked Until his weird kind of freaky uh knee injury at the end of the year he looked pretty sturdy, I thought, down the stretch. He was playing a lot of minutes. Um he he looked healthy. I d you know, I was getting pretty comfortable. Uh and and then he got hurt, obviously, but it's it's not an injury that I'm worried about.

lingering on and it's not an injury I'm worried about not a muscle injury. Just a freak freak weird injury. So Um yeah, so I I mean it's it's probably gonna be tight um because he's gonna be behind the eight ball a little bit already coming out of the gate, but but I think, you know, I think there's a good chance he plays 30 games this year and and I'd I'd feel pretty good about that. Yeah, I I I hit the over two just because I kinda wanted to be

positive about it. And twenty-five and a half is, you know, we're we're talking about him missing if he were to only play twenty-five games, he would have to miss. potentially like half the season, which I would like to think is not gonna happen. And of course, you know, he's gonna have to get back into the starting lineup too, but No, I guess he doesn't really have to. Th these are just appearances, these aren't starts.

Uh all right, you want to do the next one? Yeah, next one up is Albert Rusnak uh goal contributions in league play and with primary assists. Now I will admit I missed. the fact that it was a primary assist uh when I chose my my choice here. But I'm gonna stick with it. So the the line we set so forty over the last two years.

Uh basically averaged twenty over the last year. Um slightly more in twenty twenty four than twenty twenty five. I think I think you had like twenty two in twenty twenty four or something like that. Um anyway, doesn't matter. Uh I'm gonna stick with the over. I feel less confident that I did. Um, but I think he's I think he's gonna have a big year this year. I think that he's gonna be racking up the S.

Pretty significantly. And part of why I I included this is I I thought it was just kind of a good excuse to talk about his consistency over the last two years. He's tied for the fifth most. goals and assists over the past two seasons. That's you know, I don't feel like he gets talked about in that way. Uh I also ran these numbers independently of this for non penalty goals in primary assists and he was eighth in that time. Which is to say that he is up there with

you know, you know, there's Messi and there's Bwanga and they're sort of in a different tier. But once you get past that tier, he's right there with all the other sort of stars of the league in terms of his goal contributions. And I just don't Know that we talk about him with enough reverence in that way. Yeah, I agree. And just in general, like he you know, he he's been so consistent uh over the last, you know, eight years, I think is is how long he's been in the league.

I don't know that there's anyone in the league that's been really more like he he just puts up these numbers. I took the under, but I think it's gonna be really, really close. Uh You know, you could go ten goals, seven assist primary assists. That's a good season, but it's not, you know, it would it would be right under uh

I I will say about Albert Rusnak, and this is probably a this is a hot take. I'll I'll classify it as a hot take. Oh, hey. Um The Nico Lodero era of the Sounders was obviously, for a multitude of reasons, the defining era. Yeah. MLS Cups, Champions League. He is the icon of of the club. He's the greatest player in club history. Yeah. Albert Rosanak is a better player than you.

I mean he's a Albert Besmack is the he's the best player to ever play for the Sounders. Now Clint Dempsey was better in his prime, but in terms of their career with the team, I think Albert. I mean one of one of the interesting things I I realize is that the last two seasons, Rusnak has been On again, just using primary assists, uh I th I feel like Nico got more secondary assists than than Rusnak does. But if you're going by primary assists,

And even if you're going with penalty goals or not penalty goals, Rosnak's last two seasons were better than any two back to back seasons that that Lodero had. I think they might be better than any two seasons he had. You know, Ladero didn't put up really Big numbers. I think that's kind of one of the funny things. He is ultimately a guy who is remembered for coming through in big moments in the biggest games. And that's why he is revered the way he is.

But I he also his DNA like he left his DNA on the team. Like it was unquestionably Ladero's team in a way that it's not. Yeah, I would agree with that. Sorry to interrupt. Yeah. No, I I agree. It's just interesting and and again, I don't I don't know that

I d I don't know if I feel like Rusnak is a better player or not than Ladero. I guess if you're talking about just their on field contributions, I would agree with that. But really if you're comparing Rusnak to the best sounder ever, that's a pretty good frame of reference. You know, that's a that's a good conversation to be in. Uh and I I feel like Albert just doesn't get the the love that he he frankly deserves. Um

All right, so this next one is Total Games and I will remind everyone that the Sounders last year played fifty games. They set a franchise record. The year before that, I think they played 45, but I set the I set the over under at 45 and a half. So in order to get to 45 and a half. Uh, they are currently guaranteed to play thirty nine games because they have guaranteed two champions cup games and three Leagues Cup games. So they would have to play in a s six additional games.

If they were to play in the playoffs that would potentially add two or three games. uh just right off the jump. So they would have to advance, I guess, is my point. They'll have to advance a a couple rounds in order to hit this over. What do you think, Aaron? I I went over um I think they will make the playoff. Uh, I think so that's two games right there. Yeah. Um, I think that they are gonna get out of the first round of the of the Champions League. Um

I think they're likely to uh get into the the knockouts of the League's Cup. So Yeah, I I think it could be tight, you know, they they don't have the three um uh Club World Cup games that they had last year and you know, they I think it's I think uh fair to say unlikely that they're gonna uh gonna win the League's Cup again just'cause that You know, it's a hard thing to do. Um

So it's it it'll be tight, but I I do think that I I think there's a good chance this team makes a pretty deep Champions League run this year. I think that they Okay, great. They've got the horses for it, so I could see that. And and you've you're guaranteed two games every time you advance there, right? So yeah, and I you know, so yeah, I'll I'll go over, but I I'm not super confident.

Yeah, I went I went over too. Uh uh it's it I I think Champions Cup is probably the the area that will push this to the over. But it's a, you know, it's a it's a it's a pushy one. Um all right. Oh you're up next, I guess. Yeah, so the next one is Andrew Thomas MLS starts. Uh Fry has averaged about thirty-three, right? He in this engage during his his prime he was averaging thirty-three. Yeah. Um so twenty fourteen is

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Um thirty point five is the number. I'm gonna take the under, but I feel similarly similar level of confidence as the last one, which is not a huge level. Yeah, I I I took the over here, which is really saying he's gonna start effectively every game. Yeah. That is maybe a little too aggressive.

But I I feel like Fry is probably gonna my suspicion is that Frye will get maybe even ch it'll be interesting what happens in Champions Cup. But I I think for sure Frye will get League's Cup this year. And you know, if he gets Champions Cup 2, that would, you know, I think that that bodes well for Andrew Thomas racking up MLS starts. So yeah, I'll I'll put my chest out. I'll say the over. All right. I love it.

All right. So Osase de Rosario goals. You know, and I I wanna note something here. Uh We put this in the Discord and we asked people for suggestions on the on the over-unders and definitely there were a few people that suggested De Rosario, but they came in with some wild numbers. Like they were saying like fifteen and a half.

And some kind of like cre like numbers that I I'm not saying he's incapable of doing, but let's let's be real. He's coming off a five goal season. He has one career MLS goal. I don't I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. I set the over-under at nine and a half, which I feel like would be a pretty which was pretty aggressive, I thought. I thought nine and a half was pretty aggressive.

I I agree. I agree. Nine and a half is aggressive. I mean that's a that's a good season. Uh it is a good season. That's the Sounders single season MLS record is what, sixteen, I think? So, you know, that's that's three quarters of the way there. Uh a trend here, I'm not super confident, but I went under. Um I I think he's gonna be right around there. Like I think he's gonna score a good amount of goals.

Uh if you can get eight goals from your second forward, I think you gotta be pretty happy with that. I think we were a little bit spoiled getting as many goals out of our second forward as we did last year. So Um eight puts them in the sort of Will Bruin-ish category, right? Of like a guy that is contributing big time with his chances. Now the the the category

The wild card here is how long is he the starting nine? Right. Right. If it's the starting nine for a couple of weeks, this is, you know, nine and a half. I I feel confident with the under. If he just wins the job, I mean he he could very easily get into double digits. So Right. eight, nine goals, he's gonna hit the under, but I still feel really great about that as a as a season for him. Yeah, I I I you know, partly to

have conversation. I I I picked the over. I do think he is you know, it's an interesting gambit, like I said. It it's basically saying, do you think he's gonna be the starter or not? And there's, you know, there's a there's a bunch of things that could derail that. Uh one of them is Danny Muss that he doesn't start strong and Danny Masovsky gets his back right and

And you know, we hardly see any De Rosario at all. And the o under becomes uh a a real lock. There's also a scenario where, you know, it's entirely possible that the whole reason that Jordan is out on the left. It's really an a planned temporary solution to a short term problem. And those problems are that both Pedro de la Vega and Paul Ariola are hurt and that once one of the or sorry, yeah.

De La Vega's hurt. Ariola is not fully back yet. But it's there's a a realistic possibility that if Ariola just gets fit. and and healthy that he is starting at left mid and you gotta imagine that in that scenario Jordan Morris moves the forward unless of course Osase de Rosario or or Danny Mosowski, I suppose, is just tearing it up at the number nine.

And and so this is really like this could be decided in the first two or three weeks of the season whether or not he's gonna hit the over or the under. Because if he's if he's continues the form he's in right now. You know, he might hit the over easily. Uh and I guess that's sort of what I'm gaming. Yeah, this is an interesting one because it is like a feast or famine, right? I think he's either gonna be comfortably under or blow it out of the water, most likely.

Yeah. All right. So this is a a bit of a trend here, but I'll let I'll let you do the next the next one. Yeah, next one is Jordan Morris goals. Uh the the note here is he's only had one mostly healthy season where he was below eleven. Uh I think that was twenty twenty-two, right? So uh well no twenty

No, twenty seventeen was the only year that he went right'cause he only had like three goals. He had actually a bad year even though he was on the field a lot. Uh but anyway. Yeah, the the uh so the over under here is thirteen and a half. Um I am mm less convinced of my answer here than maybe any of these, but I went over. I I for whatever reason just think Jordan is gonna have a big year.

Um but it's kind of similar to the last question, right? Where if he ends up playing primarily on the left, he could have a great year and and still go under. Yeah. Yeah. Um I I'm hopeful that he's back at the nine um before too long and and that he'll comfortably hit the over here.'Cause I think if he can get a full healthy season at the nine in this team, he could

He could be he could blow up. Like he could score twenty goals, I I think if if he gets that chance. So um so yeah, contingent on him getting most of his starts at the nine. Well, I I took the under in part because I feel like he's gonna end up playing on the left a lot more and he might end up having a productive season he could have, you know.

12 goals and nine assists, which would be a great season, but it would we would still hit the under on this. Uh I I don't know how long he's gonna be out at left, but uh I I feel like as long as he's there. his goal scoring totals are gonna be depressed as a result of that. Yeah. Uh so I t I took the under. We'll see. I I would love to be wrong on that one. All right. So the next one to close this out, Danny Masofsky goals

I I think I maybe went a little too aggressive on this. I said ten and a half is the number and that's a lot less than he had last year. He obviously had eighteen total goals last year. This would be a big drop off, but I think this is really a question of do we think he's gonna be a starter this year? And if he's a starter Ten and a half seems very low, but I uh it feels like right now he might not be the starter.

Yeah, and I I don't I'm happy with with that, I would say. He had a hell of a year last year, scored a ton of goals, a lot of fun to watch. Uh I don't think that that was a repeatable season. I think that if kind of like Asase, right? If he's your if he's your second nine uh you know, your second nine and he scores eight or nine goals, you gotta feel pretty great about that, I think. Um

But I I just I don't think he's gonna be the starter. And uh And I think he's he's gonna struggle to get to double digits again, especially because a lot of a lot of last season He was just really the only option. Like it's easy to forget, but he looked like twenty twenty four Danny Masovsky for a good chunk of the first part of the season. Yeah, it wasn't really until April when he st when he Sort of hit that I think he had a five game streak where he scored in consecutive games.

And up until then he had not he looked like I mean, I remember I wrote I did a video talking about how Danny Massovsky is better than we're giving him credit for and he had this game against San Jose where he he had like two and a half XG and he didn't score a goal. And I was like, no, he keeps getting into these good spots. He he'll he'll start finishing. And eventually he did, but there was a lot of frustration before he he sort of blew up.

Yeah. I I think that um and you know to to be fair, right, he I think was pretty much right on his uh his XG even his actual roles. So it's not like he was finishing at a clip you don't you wouldn't expect to be sustainable. No, his XG was great. Yeah. Yeah. But I I just I think that it m this might be the kind of a situation where a guy who was historically a below average finisher had a year where he finished at a at a pretty average rate and

Maybe you would expect some regression there. I don't know. Yeah.

Uh next one is Christian Rolldon MLS appearances. Uh you know that this is a hedge against World Cup related absences, and you set the line at 25 and a half. Yeah, so I You know, I I don't I he doesn't necessarily have to miss a bunch of games for the World Cup, even if he makes the World Cup. MLS is taking a break on May twenty fourth and they aren't coming back until July sixteenth. Even if he makes the World Cup team, I don't think he would miss more than sort of a game or two there.

And that's but at the same time, he has to stay healthy. And if he plays a bunch in the World Cup, they're gonna wanna give him some extra time off. That said, I took the over. Maybe I was too maybe I maybe this was too soft, but that was I I I took the over too, but I think it's it's a good number because I think that Um, Christian has been a very durable player. He's been a very reliable player the last few years, but he's gonna be playing a lot of minutes again and

Even if there's not an overuse component, right? Because I know that that's a that's a debate that we we have a lot. Um it is. In the fan base, right? Of like, hey, they're they're monitoring these guys' minutes, they're monitoring their fitness levels, they

they're not gonna put them at risk. The more minutes you play just by virtue I mean, the more time you spend driving a car, the more likely you are to get in a car accident, right? So the more games he's playing, the more minutes he's logging, the more likely he is to to pick up an injury. Um, and so I think you've you've gotta prepare for that possibility. But I I went over as well. I think it's gonna

MLS games, 30 MLS appearances. Um if he gets the that that would be great. Yeah, I I think like if this were starts, I probably would have taken the under, but for appearances, you know, I think I think the All right. I'll take you over. All right. Uh

Oh, wait, this is you, right? No, I I I read the last one. This is you. Oh, okay. So this is uh Sounders goals in MLS. So last year they had 58. That was the second most they'd ever scored. But uh the number here is fifty eight and a half because I'm I'm trying to trying to be pushing it. Uh yeah Yeah. I took the under. Um but I

There's nothing about the performance last season that I think was flukish. They figured out the most effective way to score a lot of goals with the personnel they had, and they went out and did it. Um fifty eight is almost misleading because of how many goals they scored in League's Cup, but at the same time they didn't really figure it out in the attack until April, May. they were pretty putrid before that. So

I think there's a good chance they they that this is the best attacking team in the history of the of the Sounders. I think that maybe they score, you know, they finally break the sixty mark again, which I think the last time they did that was twenty fourteen, right? So Uh I think it's possible, but I'm I'm gonna go with the under here. Just to be well.

Yeah, you know, I I picked the over and I'm just being bullish. I I think that there is nothing that they did last year that struck me as unsustainable. I mean, they created a ton of chances they they put themselves in very you know, good finishing spots. And if they continue to do that, I think that they're gonna continue to score. Lots of goals. I I I think, you know, there's a there's a handful of players who I think

could have big seasons this year, could have improvements on what they did last year. I think You know, really Masovsky's the only one who I think is is really likely for some regression just because he had such a big gear. Yeah. But yeah, I I took the over and I I feel reasonably confident about that one. Yeah, and I would say even if Masovsky regresses pretty significantly

if you can get a decent uh pro you know, contribution from Asase de Rosario, then that offsets that a lot, right? If Jesus Ferreira starts scoring goals earlier than he did last year, that offsets that. Right. Yeah. Um yeah, I'll I'll stick with the under, but I I do think it's gonna be close and I think they could blow it out. Yeah. Uh next one is the other side of the coin goals allowed. So uh The average of the last two years is 41 and a half, so that seems like a good place to put it.

Uh for for the over under. Yeah. Uh I took the over. I am not totally convinced that they have fixed their defensive issues. You know, they and it's really it was really about their set piece defending last year. That was the biggest culprit in the change from the previous two seasons to this one. and or to the last one. And, you know, I'm I'm just not totally convinced that they fixed those problems. You know, that they they were a little unlucky in on set piece defending.

You know, they I think they allowed two more goals than the XG should have that they they should have according to to XG, but That's not a lot. Like they weren't great defending set pieces regardless. And I just am not totally convinced that they have fixed the defending. But I also think that their offense is gonna be better. And honestly, 41 and a half would be if they give up 42 goals, it would be the over. That would still be six fewer than they gave up last year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean it's uh

I do think this at piece depending is a problem, and I think teams are also very much aware of it. And I think it's gonna be It's the the biggest concern I have about the team. I went I took the o uh the under um because I I think they gave up the set piece defending issues were real, but I think that they gave up some

pretty fluky goals that I don't think they would uh it you can just plan on again. Like I think their defense was a little bit unlucky last year to give up, I think, forty eight. So Um, but again, I'm not super competent in this one either. And and frankly, if the choice is the twenty twenty four way of winning games or the twenty twenty five way of winning games I I've way of winning games, even if it gives me some heartburn to to give up those many goals, that many goals.

All right. Uh so we might have to speed this along a little bit. Yeah. I'm I'm realizing I I I put a lot of things in here.

Uh, I'm gonna skip over these next two. I don't think we I don't know how much we care about home points and road points. I do like the idea of doing this over under though. Knew who assists. Uh I set it at two and a half, which would You know, uh actually via career high. Uh but he had two last year which tied his career high. And I don't know, what do you think? Uh can new who get three assists? Uh no, I don't think so. I'm taking the under.

I I took the over. I think he I I feel like I have seen I've seen improvements and I am I'm gonna I'm gonna put my my weight behind that. I I I I I yeah, we're gonna go with that. I I of course uh hope very much that you're right. I mean him him turning into a average def uh attacking left back would be monumental. So I It would, it would, it would, it really would. Uh where will they finish in the west?

is the next one you've got the over under at two and a half. For those of you. Yeah, so that's meaning they would like if they finished third, that would be over. And if they finished first, that would be or second, that would be under. Oh, okay. We're back. We're I got it backwards. Okay. Yeah. Uh I'm going over on this one. I had under because I misunderstood what we meant here. Yeah, I'm going under um or over. Sorry. I I think that

I don't think that the Sounders really prioritize finishing that high in the table. I think they wanna peek at the right time and and they wanna compete in every competition and sometimes that leads to worse. So I I I took the over as well with the idea sort of same thing. This is a team that I I You know, the it it is one of the funniest stats to me is that they've only won the finished first in the West once. Yeah. That's crazy. That is crazy. Yeah.

They've won MLS Cup more times than they have finished first in the West. I mean, I guess they finished first in the West in 2020, right? So No, they finished second. Did they in 2020? Yeah. Sporting Kansas City finished first. No? Sounders finish first. What? I'm looking at the table right now. Yeah. But that season didn't I mean they played twenty-two games. They they finished first that year? They finished first and they also played a one more game than Sporting Hit.

So I don't really know how much we should care about that. Okay. Okay. Officially, technically, they did finish first. Okay. Fair enough. Well, uh anyway. Next one. Uh Is it d oh oh I'm reading this one, right? Yeah.

Uh, how many playoff rounds will they compete in? I set it at two and a half, which means to get the over they would have to get to the conference final. So do you think they're gonna get to the conference final? Or fall short. I I took the under because of the last one. I think they put themselves at a disadvantage f uh by with this playoff format by not uh

not finishing higher, so I think it's gonna be tough. Cause they basically where I figure they're gonna finish in the table, uh they'd probably have to win multiple games on the road to Yeah, I I I said over. I I think this team is I'm I'm I think they'll do good in the playoffs. Yeah. I I again not sure. We would love that's the kind of funny thing about this is we are oftentimes having to go against our rooting interests when we're Yeah. We're doing very much so. Yeah.

Uh next one kind of similar, CONCACAF Champions Cup games. You've got the underoverset at four and a half, which is basically we're asking, are they gonna get to the semifinals? Yeah. Uh I took the under, I

I I feel like their path is just gonna be tough. They, you know, I could see them beating the White Caps in this next round, but then if they win that game, uh I mean, if they win that, I'm looking it up now, but I'm almost positive that they have a bunch of Mexican teams that they're gonna have to go through in order to They do, yeah.

So I don't know. I'm not super optimistic. I would love to be wrong, obviously. Yeah. I think that they have the team that could make the run, but it's gonna be a tough. Yeah. Yeah. Um let's see if I can find this really quickly, who they who what their path is. No, this they're oh yeah, here we go. All right. So if they were to

Yeah, they g they have the winner of Tigris, most likely Cincinnati in the in the next round. And then if they got through that round, I guess that would hit the over. But to get past them America or inner Miami is probably who they'd have to beat to get to the final. Yeah. Although, you know, I guess it's not inf not impossible, but

It'd be a fun ride. No, but it's tough. You know, it's a it's a tough it's tougher than twenty twenty two, right? So yeah. Yeah. Which which hey was not easy. Let's not pretend that twenty twenty two is easy. No, no. It wasn't. It wasn't. I mean, it was. Probably easier than this would be. Yeah. All right. I'm I'm gonna jump another one though,'cause in the in the idea of time.

This is kind of a fun one. How many summer transfer window moves will they make from outside the organization? I said it at one and a half. So they'd have to make two signings from outside the organization. Well m actually I don't think I'm not gonna say outside the organization. Just two the one and a half is what I Period. Because I don't even know if they have room on the roster to sign two guys from outside the organization. Yeah. I took the over because I think they will make at least one

impact signing. Um and I think they'll probably promote a kid this summer. So I I'm gonna go I'm gonna take the over. I could see them making two senior level signings as well. Um But yeah, I'll I'll take the over. If they if they make a if they sign a guy and they trade for somebody, does that count? Or are we just definitely. Yeah. Yeah. It would definitely count. Because I could definitely see them making a trade and and bringing somebody in. So

I'm gonna take the under just for fun. I do think they're gonna make at least one notable move this summer, but I don't know if they've they've got two. I'd love to I'd love to be wrong. I'd love to be wrong. Uh next one is total DP minutes. Last year was four thousand and seventy-four. You have set's an MLS play. An MLS play. Yeah. Um you've set the number at 4,200 this year, and I've taken the over. I think that they'll clear that, but probably just barely.

Yeah, uh keep in mind so most of those minutes, over half of those minutes were were just Albert Rusnak and then De La Vega had like a thousand something and Jordan had seven hundred something. Yeah, actually I think I feel pretty comfortable comfortable with this one at this point, now that now that you mention it. Yeah, I mean if you just have basically if Albert and Jordan, stay healthy all year, they're they'll clear it easily. This is probably too low. I'm also gonna take the over. Yeah.

And then we're gonna close it out with the average home attendance. I set it at thirty one thousand, which would be a slight increase over last year, which was three thousand ninety three, which was itself a slight increase over the previous year, where it was like thirty thousand and seventy something. Yeah.

What do you guys think I took I took the over here. I think that that I think that that uptick is real. I think that the crowds post club World Cup were notably bigger and better. And I think the critical thing is gonna be that they can't Shit the bed coming out of the gate again this year. Like they have to they don't have to start setting the world on fire, but they can't be boring and bad.

No, and it's gonna and they do have their work cut out for'em. You know, they have one home game and then they have five road games. But this is here's the part where I don't know if it will make a difference, but I am hopeful

The Sounders are gonna be playing on grass all basically during the whole run up to the World Cup and they might have gras so they're gonna have at least six games on grass this year. They might have seven. I suspect they'll have seven because There's a game against the Timbers on July.

nineteenth, I believe July seventeenth, that is right after the last World Cup game here, and then there's a a long stretch where they or a a multi game stretch where they they don't have grass or they don't have um any home games.

I I don't know. I I think people are gonna want to come out and see the grass. I think I think that's a great point. I do and and I think that they're gonna get a little bit of a bump from the World Cup, especially having it in the US, especially if Christian gets significant minutes, right? Well and I think And I I my I don't know, the what's interesting about the World Cup is that I don't get a lot of buzz from that, but I do think there's gonna be a lot of

discussion about soccer. And soccer is going to be on people's minds. And I don't know that the World Cup is going to be I don't know what's going to happen during the World Cup here, but I do think that the Sounders are going to be well positioned to capture some of that buzz. And I hope that they you know, I hope that they do it. You know, the guys on Lobbing Scorchers made a comment about how

the the game in Spokane might actually be more important to building their fan base than in the games the World Cup games are. And I think there's some truth to that. But I think You take those things together, and I think there's a real opportunity for the Sounders to really lean into some smart marketing this year. And And I I'd like to think that they can keep this upward trajectory on attendance going. And I'm gonna also take the over here and yeah and and hope for the best. Um

All right. Well let's take a break. We're gonna come back. We have some mailbag questions. Hopefully someone was taking notes on that. We took we did take notes this time, just so you know. We did. Uh But if anyone wants to compare and and uh call us up and let us know how we how we messed it up again or whatever, the we this spurred a lot of debate last year. But anyway, let's take a break. We're gonna come back, do the mailbag, you'll listen to no study at this.

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Welcome back to Nose Audiatis. We are doing the first mailbag of 2026. Aaron, do you want to just jump right in and let's do it. Uh first question is from Dorcas. How was your offseason? You know, it was it it felt like there was a stretch there of Maybe a month.

where I really felt it was off like I was getting almost antsy. It was so off season y. Yeah. Uh the sounders went out earlier than they have gone out in recent years. And I actually felt like I had downtime That almost lulled me into a false sense of of like Relaxation. And then once the preseason really got going and I decided to we decided to do this magazine and we got an office and we started doing all this other stuff. All of a sudden like the stress came

slamming down on me. And so it's been a very weird off season for me. I a good productive off season. I I went to Spain, obviously. It it's been a kind of crazy off season for me. Uh how about you, Aaron? Well that's been fine, I got a tattoo. Uh Let's see, anything else? Not really. No, that's pretty much it. Uh it was good, you know. I'm I'm ready for the season to start again now.

When was the last time we recorded? December? Was it in December? November? I think it would have been November, yeah,'cause the MLS Cup was in December and we I think the last show we recorded was was after the the loss in in Minnesota, so Yeah. So very different off seasons. Yeah, very very much so. Yeah, very much so. Uh yeah. But you got to go to Spain, so I did get to go to Spain, even though I was only in Spain really for two two days. That's true. That's fair.

It was it was good. It was good. I enjoyed it. Uh I'm sure we'll do an eventually we'll get around to really talking about it. Uh maybe not right now. Uh

Uh all right. So this is kind of a two part question. The first part is from NerdFarmer. And he says, Can we get a rundown or some speculation about the pursuit of new investors? That felt like a loud public announcement followed by a relative radio silence. And then better than uh our good friend Dave Clark, of course, uh Nerd Farmer, I assume is Nate. Uh.

I would assume so. Uh but if not, somebody is stealing his gimmick. Right, exactly. Uh for a new our new investor, would you prefer a big money that's distant from the region or smaller money that adores Puget Sound?

Uh, I will kinda leave the first part of this to you, other than to say it f it feels like a hurry up and wait kind of thing where it's like you put the call out there and then there's a lot of really boring business shit that happens, right? But so I I mean, for the second part, I think it depends entirely on

what their what share of ownership they're getting, right? Like if they're just putting in their 20%, their 200 million in equity and they want to be major partners but still, you know, secondary to to Adrian's influence and stuff, then obviously I think it'd be great to have somebody from from the area that that loves Puget Sound and is really invested. if they want to come in and take majority ownership and build a stadium in the city of Seattle and

uh you know, uh start spending a lot more money on the roster and all that good stuff, as long as they're not like pure teal leveled evil. I don't really Yeah. Uh I would I would I think I agree with that. I I think one of the the misnomers though about this process that they're going through is that if we take them at their word and they're just looking for sort of t a two hundred million equity kind of partner

That's not gonna change the way they spend money. If that money is most likely gonna be invested in a new stadium, and that new stadium seems to be likely to be in long acres. I don't see I'm I'm still not getting a lot of indications that the current ownership group is is wavering from that belief.

And so if if people are hoping for something that really shifts the paradigm of how the sounders operate and they want someone that wants to like invest in being in Seattle and and go big, it's gonna have to be Someone that comes in and and makes a big swing, probably buys Jody Allen's shares, buys all this new equity, and then probably makes a bid to a bunch of smaller investors in the in the club too. And and maybe we get something I don't and I don't

I I have mixed feelings about all of that, except yeah, I really want them to stay in Seattle. I I still do feel really strongly about that being the way to go. Uh but to get to Nerd Farmer's first part of this question. I I am not hearing anything specific other than, you know, there was a thing in Forbes that said that they are getting close to Definding, you know, to closing a deal on this two hundred million dollar thing, but I have no idea who that is. I'm not hearing anything.

Uh, I don't know that I would be necessarily, but it it seems like you're right. It is sort of a lot of radio science. And I'll say that that broadly mirrors the whole long anchors thing too. You know, it was like three years ago that the whole possibility of moving out to Long Acres was first floated. And there's been almost no public outreach about that since then. Right. Uh yeah. And they they've got plenty of time, right? Like their lease at Lumen runs through twenty thirty two, I think.

But that's not no amount of time, right? It takes some time to build a soccer station. Well, that was the whole thing when they started was like the reason they were kind of floating it as soon as they were is because they knew they needed time. And that time seems to like it's not run out at all, but it's just Right. It it almost makes me wonder if they have made up their minds fully that they're gonna do it and they're not saying anything'cause they don't wanna deal with the

Right. I mean at press. I I I don't think that's the craziest belief. Yeah. Which sucks really bad, but we'll we'll We'll jump off that bridge when we come to it. Yeah. Uh yeah. Anything else on that one? No. All right. So the next one is from Tyson.

Uh with the upcoming changes in Leagues Cup formats to include matches in Mexico, will the Sounders 2025 Leagues Cup trophy eventually be diminished like how we treated DC United and LA Galaxies? Cup champions cup wins in the nineties after the Sounders uh twenty twenty two CCL run. Oh you know, that's a fair, fair question. If what ends up happening the League's Cup is that there's like Almost a if not full blown parody in the way that the games are hosted, but there is

you know, a real path that you have to go through Mexico that will fundamentally change the way that people view League's Cup. I will say the Sounders at least had to play a road game in this right in their win. So that's, you know, I I think that at least puts this in the US open cup sort of category where they I think the Sounders had to win at least one road game. Every year they won US Open Cup, if I remember Correctly.

Yeah. But um, you know, it's it it will definitely be different. There's no question about it. And the sounders were not even the first. team the first MLS team to win League's Cup. Uh they will always be the first MLS team to win all of the North American trophies. So yeah. There. Yeah. I mean, I definitely do think it diminishes it somewhat or or would. It does. And that's that I mean, it is what it is, right? Like you win the competitions you're in at the time.

Um winning an MLS Cup in twenty twenty six is way harder than winning one in nineteen ninety six when there were like four teams or whatever. Like it's different and people people understand that and that's that's okay. Um You know, that's that's fine. It doesn't take away from the achievement, it just makes it different, puts it in a different light. Yeah.

Uh all right, this is from W. He says, We know that Brian tends to be somewhat conservative with his personnel and tactical changes season to season. I don't Actually, I was gonna say do do we know. I agree with that premise. I but uh what did the off season moves tell us about the how the squad will take shape on opening day?

Yeah, I mean I think that Brian is stubborn at times to change tactics or personnel once he's decided on what they are, but I think that there are often pretty significant wholesale changes in the off season. Um But in terms of what you know what the moves tell us about uh how the squad will take shape, I mean, we know who's the starting left back. Um we know Obed's not gonna be there. We know Snyder Brunel's probably gonna get some some more minutes.

Um we know that the depth is not what it was. And so that's gonna be that's probably gonna change some things, right? Um will the bench get used as much as it did? Um but I think the biggest thing is like He's willing to try different stuff. He's willing to to, you know, give Osazi de Rosario a chance to win the starting striker job. Um he's willing to play around at left back, you know, to to see what the best fit is there for for the the back up and

So really it tells us we don't have that much of an idea, I guess. We don't have a great idea because he's tried so many different looks and and there's a lot of open questions. Yeah, I I I still don't feel like we've seen enough of the sounders from a sort of tactical level view to have a great sense of what, if any, changes they have enacted. Like there's been

You can see sort of elements of this two three build that they've talked about. I I would feel very uncomfortable trying to clearly articulate what the changes are. But I I I do get the sense that there have been some t tweaks. Yeah.

Uh next one is from KW underscore 2026. We've seen some very savvy and astute entra league player acquisitions as well as burgeoning pipeline that's producing some high quality MLS talent. With these successful strategies in place, are we also likely to see a decreased emphasis on making any future large trampers such as Open Eco and Raoul going forward? You know, i it's a fair a very fair question, and I do think that there has been already some

S some almost fundamental change to the way the sounders are approaching the transfer market. Like that it does feel like they they don't want to go into the transfer market just sort of to say they did. I think they are much more likely to be active in sort of the

the cheap markets, so to speak. Like a Georgie Manungu, I feel like it's very illustrative of the kind of transfer that they want to be making. You know, this this guy they just signed from Omaha, whose name is currently escaping me, is a nineteen year old who, you know, I I think they see him as like a buy low but potentially high upside play. And I I do think that there is an element that they have they've just sort of figured

The they think that they can they found like maybe a uh inefficiency in the market. Right. And that the inefficiency is like people that teams that want quick fixes and are willing to spend big. Now I don't think that precludes them from making big swings when they need to. Like if a open D P spot comes open in the next couple of years. I don't see why they wouldn't wanna spend big on that. And maybe they're sort of compine they're uh pooling money.

And hopefully that's their approach. That's this is like, well, we haven't spent a transfer fee in five windows. Maybe this is the time we do it. That would be cool. Uh so yeah, I mean I do think it has but I do I I guess the answer is yes. I think they have sort of changed their philosophy about transfer spending. Yeah, and I think that to some degree they they've had to because for a long period of time, the only way to really separate yourself and MLS was to get the best DPs because

Every all the spending below the D P level was guys that were pretty much all the same. And y you know, if you if you had good scouting or good coaching, obviously that was gonna give you an edge, but it really was a league where the DPs made the difference and the Sounders

I think have been really good at recognizing that that's not as much the case and they want sure things in their DPs, like Alberto Snack, you know, for example. Uh they're willing to take a risk on a player like Pedro de la Vega, obviously, but

their strategy is holistically building the best roster rather than making the biggest splashes possible. And and I think that that makes plenty of sense. But I do feel like there's this narrative that like, well, the Sounders just don't pay transfer fees. They never will. Uh and that that those days are over. And yeah, I mean they they just paid one in 2024 that was pretty big, um, all things considered.

Lots of people wanting to pay bigger ones more often. I totally get that. But I do think when they have a D P spot open, if there's not somebody out that's out there on a free that ticks all their boxes, they'll they'll pay a fee. And I think that's, you know, that's pretty pretty fair to assume.

Yeah. All right. This is from Eric. From our current roster, please rank who you think is most likely to eventually play in champions or the Premier League. Oh, that's an interesting. Yeah. I mean Snyder Brunell and Stu Hawkins are the two that kind of pop into my mind because they're young and who knows how good they're gonna be. Um, there's nobody else on the roster currently that I think has a a real great chance of playing in the Premier League, I don't think.

Um, but I could see somebody like Jose Ferreira playing in the Champions League with, you know, a team in Belgium or something, right? Like I don't I don't think that's out of the question at all. He's still plenty young enough to make a move to Europe. So Um, but outside of that, I mean, I don't think Jordan Morris is going back to Europe.

Uh I guess Christian Christian could if he has a great World Cup performance, but I think the odds are super low of a of a player. You know, he's he's 30. Um those guys just don't usually move to Europe. at that age. Um knew who I suppose is an outside possibility, but I think if he goes to Europe, he's probably not gonna be going to a to a Champions League caliber club. Um there's always a chance, you know, somebody goes and plays for like

you know, I don't know, Moldova or something. They they play in like a early, early, early stage knockout. But I don't think that's the spirit of the question, right? Um So for me it's Brunel, um Hawkins and and maybe Jesus. Maybe maybe Georgie, I guess, too. Yeah, I mean I I think Georgie is probably the player who I would put up there in the most

Like, if I had to bet money on one guy eventually playing in Champions League. Because here my here's my thinking on Georgie. I don't know that Georgie will ever be a you know, 10 goal, 10 assist guy. Like I don't necessarily think that. But he's got one skill that is

Transferable across leagues. Yeah. And is all and right now especially is is probably the asset that teams are looking for the most. And You know, I don't think it would be crazy for him to be sold for three million dollars to you know a team in Belgium right now and then get sold again to an even bigger cli like he he He's got that kind of potential. Now, he may not fulfill it.

But I I do think he he's got he's got the one most Champions League level skill of anyone on the team. I'll put it that way. Yeah. I mean he he has His dribbling ability is this is a a phrase that's often pretty meaningless, but I think makes sense in this case, is legitimately world class. Yeah. Like there is like a handful of guys that are better dribblers than dribblers. You know, it's it's it's it's un it's unreal.

Yeah, it really is. So um yeah, no, I I think that's a that's a good shout. I think he he's he's kind of in the Jesus Ferrera camp, I think, as well, where it's like he's he's probably not gonna go play in the Champions League for interval on or something. But for circle of brooders or something, you know, certainly a possibility. Right, right, exactly.

Uh, Veritatum 7 asks, personally, I'm very optimistic that this roster seems to have few weaknesses, but do you see anything currently besides injuries that could derail or lead to a mediocre season? Hmm. Th I think there are some questions in the attack still. And it's not so much whether or not they have talent there, but you know, let's just say Osase or whoever doesn't get going right away. And

They try moving Morris back, but he's lost some confidence. Like I I think there's some potential that they're maybe overthinking the number nine situation right now a little bit. Like in in s I So yeah, I mean I I could see the number nine situation maybe not playing out, even though it feels v it feels like a deep position, but it also doesn't feel like there's a guarante like there's not one guy who's

just locked into that spot. And I think that's always a little bit of a precarious situation. You know, it's it's not quite like a quarterback where if you if you don't have a clear starter, you don't or if you if you have two Two guys, you don't have a c a clear starter, you know what I mean? Yeah and They kinda have three guys right now. Yeah. Uh even though I think Jordan Morris should be the starter. But so I could see the number nine situation like there

If things don't go well, I think there's a good chance it's because they ended up having a harder time getting the number nine positions sorted than they should have. Yeah. Yeah. I like that one. That's a good shout. Uh and I think Um something we talked about earlier in the over under is the defense, right? If yeah if the defense struggles and and the set piece defense doesn't improve, um

That could be a problem. And last year they were able to outscore teams. But I think this year, if they do struggle to get that number nine situation figured out, if they struggle to find an identity with whoever wins that job. And the defense struggles, I think that could be a certainly a a pretty big problem where they're not they're scoring, but they're not scoring quite enough to offset a defense. That's not what you'd like it to be. I could I could see that being an issue.

All right, uh this is from Twimberly twenty-three. There are quite a few position battles going into the season. What are the biggest battles and how do you think they will shake out? Is the expected winner of these position battles who you would want to win the spot?

So obviously the big one is the nine and in that case, um, I think Jordan will eventually end up being the guy there. Uh I just think he's I just think he's too good to not be. Um and I think once, you know, everybody's healthy then he's he's the clear winner there. But I think the left midfield battle is also kind of related to that one, right? Is it Jordan is Jordan the the left midfielder now? Is you know, if Osaz starts hot and Jordan is stuck on the left wing?

then where does Pedro de la Vega play?'Cause he played a lot on the right and he wasn't very good and then he moved to the left and it was kind of a rev revelation. So does that shift Jordan over to the right? Um, what does that mean for for Jesus Ferrera. Like there are just so many downstream impacts of both of those spot, right? Um so I think those two are pretty closely related um and the and they're gonna be big ones. Um outside of that, I mean

I think the central midfield spots are pretty well locked right now. I think that the center back spots are about as locked as you can get. There's not another left back, so new who's got that job. I think Alex is about as safe as you can get. The left back situation actually I think is gonna be interesting because I I I'm really curious to see If we're right about why Reed was sort of deemed expendable and that the sounders sort of are envisioning this new tactical approach.

where Rothrock and Ariola are playing left back, but they're playing it almost like a wing back, even with only two center backs, you know what I mean? And yeah, yeah, yeah. For sure. And so that's that's a caveat to that one is that, you know, it'll be interesting to see how that how that all shakes out. And I I think it's you know, it it's fascinating for all the trades the Sounders have made, I still feel like

you know, they probably have eighteen guys who could all be starters and sort of impact the whole, you know, holistic roster. Yeah, absolutely.

Uh all right, next one is from T Stubbs, and this is kind of a two parter just because of circumstances. Uh should the Sounders be looking to loan Cody Baker ideally to a level closer to MLS than USL? He's log jammed at either fullback spot and doesn't seem to have much more of a path towards minutes this year than last.

He's shown himself to be a capable player and is still relatively young, and then added later, Well, I suppose this just answered itself for the time being, with Rebaker Whitey being transferred. What are reasonable expectations for Cody this season? And now that and now that he has a clear path. Towards minutes. Yeah, you know, it'll be interesting to see how they end up using Cody because I I do like Cody. You know, he has had it when he first broke into the team in twenty twenty four.

Twenty twenty three? When was that? I think twenty twenty three. Yeah. Okay. He had like a nice run of games where it was like, Hey, this kid is pretty good. Yeah, it was twenty twenty three. You're right. It was twenty twenty three. And He's never really done anything to dissuade himself from being in that conversation, but he he just hasn't quite won over the coaches for whatever reason. He's never really

Gotten a s a significant run of games. And part of that is is, you know, he's a little bit of an odd man out. He's not quite

big enough to be a center back and I think that's part of what keeps him from playing there. He's not really fast enough and athletic enough to be a a modern fullback. And so he he doesn't have a clear position, but I I still think he he could be a new who style left back where, you know, more of a left sided center back or a right sided center back in a in a three back set.

So I don't know. I I I don't know what what pretends for him, but I I think that's he's probably another reason that they felt like they had a little more depth than than maybe we give him credit for at left back. Yeah, that's a I mean, that's a good shout. I hadn't really thought about him but there are there are um similarities between him and Uhu and the way they play that I could I could see that.

I could see him being that, you know, maybe they have sort of the all right, this is our backup when we're winning. This is this is our backup when we're losing. Uh this is our backup, uh, you know, when we need points, this is our backup when we we Yeah. Or fine with the draw, you know? Um yeah, it's a good show. But I I do like it. He's a guy that like every MLS team needs a guy like that around, right? Who can play multiple positions, can be a break in case of emergency guy at multiple spots.

And uh I I like the way he plays. I I think his biggest thing though is he's just the like He's perfectly competent, but there it's sort of like the opposite of Georgie Manungu, where Georgie has some real holes in his game, but he's elite at one thing and he's really, really, really good at that thing.

Whereas Cody is just kinda fine at everything. And that's not a terrible thing to be, um, but it's hard to get super excited about. And I think it's hard to impress enough that you're gonna be beating down the door for minutes sometimes, you know. Yeah.

All right. So this is the the last question. And I'm glad we talked about this a little bit. What effect, if any, do you think having grass at Lumen Field for at least six regular season games? Which is about a third of the home games, and possibly more games, we'll have on the Sounders home forum. Their familiar familiarity with how the Lumen Turf.

in particular plays has afforded them a home advantage, just one home loss last year. A potential Champions Cup final at Lumen on grass would be amazing, but maybe a double edged sword? Um I am not convinced it's gonna be a harmful thing. The Sounders were great at home last year and they were absolute dog shit at home the year before that. So um

And they've had been a pretty mediocre home team for long stretches of time. So I I don't know that the turf really benefits them that much. Uh I think that the way they like to play probably benefits a little bit from the turf because they have kind of a chaos ball element. So that's, you know, maybe that's a consideration. But

I think the biggest the biggest v factor is gonna be the thing you pointed out earlier, which is people might be more willing to come out and see the games if they're gonna be playing on grass. Um this will be the first so pretty. It is just so pretty when the grass is out. It really is. And this will be the first time they've played on an actual

proper grass pitch at home, not an overlay. Um and the overlay pitches are they've gotten to the point where they're pretty decent at them, but I mean it's just not the same. Pitch last year was It was pretty good. Yeah. It was it was pretty good. But it's still I I think having having the grasp for actual MLS play and and everything will be cool. And uh

I if they're if they're bound and determined to build a stadium at Long Acres, I think Adrian talking that up is probably probably a smart idea. So I see how great this is, how how nice it is. So wouldn't it be really cool if we could play every game on grass? Um but the thing that will be kind of interesting is uh how it holds up if we if we get, you know, wetter weather than expected. Um That's a great point. Like it's a good test case. Yeah.

It it is gonna be a you know, that that grass is gonna get weather. Yeah. Yeah. So that'll be interesting. I mean, if it goes to shit. pretty quickly, then that that's gotta be uh something to think about, I guess, you know? Oh my god, can you imagine it would be put all the effort into putting the grass down and then it just gets torn up.

I would be extremely amused by it, I have to admit. But it'd be pretty funny. Well uh yeah. All right. Well that's a good place to to call this, Aaron. It's been it's been wonderful.

doing this again. Yeah, it has. We're gonna not that I don't know how much people care, but uh this year I think our goal is to record on Mondays. Yeah. And and then that'll make it a little easier to manage the rest of the week because We'll do these Monday shows and then we have other things planned, but uh look for our this will we'll record on Mondays, it'll probably come out on Tuesdays. That'll hopefully be the cadence that we fall into.

Thanks for listening. Uh thank you to our sponsor, Fulpole Wines. Thank you to our readers and subscribers for making this all happen. Go out and buy four. That's the new Sender at Heart magazine. I think you're really gonna like it. You can go to Sender at Heart.com to find that. Uh all that said, I'm Jeremiah O'Shan, signing off for Aaron Campo and Lickett. This is No Study Yet This, part of the Sounder Heart podcast network. Remember, you'll never get alone. Let's go.

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