How high can the Sounders reach?

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The Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winners. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to crowd it for Seattle. The Sounders. Feels fucking awesome. And Portland can't say shit. Nice work on your little yacht. Yacht. And what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't? Ever since I wrote a commentary that we didn't take the outcome seriously.

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Welcome back to another episode of Nos Adiates, part of the Sounder at Heart podcast network, sponsored by Full Pool Wines, Hacks and Ferments, and our subscribers. We're recording on Tuesday, August 12th, 2025. I am your host, Jeremiah Shan. Joining me today is my co-host, Aaron Campo, and our producer, Lickett. Another game, another impressive showing, despite missing some key players. The Sounders ran their unbeaten streak to 10 games, which includes seven in league play.

with a 4-0 win over the Galaxy on Sunday, and it probably wasn't even that close. Even with the news today that Albert Rusnak is probably out three to four weeks and Ryan Kent might be done for the season, I can't help but feel optimistic. How about you, Aaron? Yeah, I think it's impossible not to. I mean, the Sounders have been without Jordan Morris most of the season. They've had other key injuries.

Pretty much consistently throughout the year. Yamars missed a ton of time. Jackson Reagan missed time. I'm absolutely going to forget people if I keep naming names. So I'm just going to stop there. But I think you could go through the roster and I'm. I don't know how many players, if you look at their best 11 on the first part of the season, at the beginning of the season, I want to say Jesus Ferreira.

who wasn't necessarily even in their best 11. And maybe Pedro. I'm trying to think of Pedro. I guess he did have an injury at one point. So Ferreira might be the only... Oh, Alex. I guess Alex has been healthy all year. So, you know, you've got. OK, I'm sorry. There's a few. Obed, Christian, Alex, Ferreira, De La Vega for the most part.

Those players have been pretty much healthy. Everyone else basically has been hurt. We had this crisis where we were starting Alex Roldan at center back because there were so many injuries at center back. We have had backup. Jao Paolo goes out. Paul Areola, obviously, the beginning of the season. It's a rather long list. Stephen Fry currently is still coming back from injury. It's a long list of injuries that seemingly would have sunk.

almost any team. And if they had sunk the Sounders, I think we would be sitting here saying, well, no MLS team can overcome this sort of injury crisis. And yet here we are. Yeah, it's pretty incredible. I mean, it's, you know, I think at the beginning of the season, we felt pretty good about the depth in most places. But the general consensus, I think, was, well, if something happens to Jordan Morris, it's going to be pretty tough.

And it was for a little bit, but I think that they have figured out a way to be dangerous with pretty much any collection of attacking players they have on the field. I mean, we've seen... Danny Musovsky, obviously, he has 12 goals in all comps, I believe, 10 in MLS. He's been great, and I don't want to take anything away from him because he's earned those goals. I don't think that they could have put Osaze de Rosario there and had him get 10 goals.

But he hasn't been the only guy stepping up. Osaze has stepped up when he's had the opportunity. Pedro De La Vega has started chipping in goals. Rusnak has had a ton of goals. He's hurt now, obviously. So that's a problem. But that's... That's 10 goals you've gotten from midfield. It's just been such a team effort. Everybody has been contributing to goal-scoring opportunities. I mean, so many of the goals they've scored over this run since the Club World Cup have been...

sort of end to end sequences that have required great attacking play from pretty much everybody in the pitch. And it's I don't recall. I think historically 2014 team specifically, you know, that sort of.

summertime run that they went on where they had Oba, they had Clint and they really started clicking. I think that's sort of been historically the hallmark for that's the most fun the Sounders have ever been. I think this team is more fun than that, man. I really do. Because it's not... There's something really cool and exciting and fun about watching two dudes just go out and kind of streetball their way to a bunch of goals. That's a blast. Not trying to take anything away from that. But...

This Sounders team is just systemically so dangerous. They just cut teams apart so methodically and so clinically. And it's just so much fun to watch. Teams just cannot deal with them. I mean, how many opportunities against the Galaxy did they have?

where the center backs are just look completely lost on every play because there are runners coming in from everywhere. Multiple people are making intelligent runs, you know, the, the Tijuana game, another great example of that. You know, we talked about that game last week, obviously, but just.

Teams looking completely overwhelmed and not because there's this huge, massive talent gap, although the Sounders certainly have a lot of attacking talent, but because everybody knows exactly what they're supposed to be doing. They are committed to going forward, to go in at goal in a way that I just don't remember them ever being, especially in the Brian Schmetzer era. I've just never seen a Sounders team this attack minded.

and confident in attack. And it's pretty impressive to watch. I would agree with all that. Just to give a little bit more context to some of what you said, the Sounders during this 10 game... unbeaten streak uh they have scored 29 goals 26 of those goals have come in their last eight which is which is a record a franchise record for the most goals in a eight game stretch

I believe the previous record was like 23 or 24, something like that, that the 2014 team did. And that run famously included a... 6-0 win over the Chicago Fire at Starfire in the Open Cup semifinals. So that kind of almost like a little asterisk on that one. But I guess maybe you could say that with League's Cup. I don't know. To me.

I think the doing it against the league at Mackey's teams is a little different, but anyway, there's been 11 different goal scorers. There's been 18 different field players, starters. And of those 18 field players. I believe only three have not scored or assisted during this 10 game stretch, which is to say, and there, you know, it's, it's re it's all defenders. It's Kim.

John Bell and Reed Baker Whiting, I think, are the only three players who have not scored or assisted starters who haven't scored or assisted. It's just up and down the lineup. They're getting production from players who I think we thought could be productive, but... hadn't necessarily shown a track record of being as productive as they're being, at least right now. And I think what's so encouraging about this is that it's not one player getting on a heater. It's.

A bunch of guys just feeling confident and vibing on one another and doing the stuff that you need to do. Another stat I recently looked up and I think is illustrative. So, you know, they have this big scoring surge. That's great. You want to know how sustainable it is. Well, part of what I think makes it sustainable is that they've essentially doubled the number of big chances they're creating by according to Opta.

They're creating 4.7 big chances per game during this 10-game unbeaten streak. Before the Club World Cup, they're producing like 2.2 big chances per game. And so the fact that they're scoring a lot...

they're scoring a lot more is in part because they're just creating a lot more chances. It's not like they're just on a hot streak. They're getting own goals. There's a couple penalties in there, but it's mostly... You look at this last game, and the first goal is an own goal, but the own goal comes on the 21st pass of the sequence. And it's...

And all 21 passes were in the Galaxy defensive end. And then they get a goal. The second goal is a turnover that they convert into a chance. And then they... The third goal, I believe, was another turnover that they converted into a chance. And then the fourth goal, again, is a turnover that they converted into a chance. And these are just repeatable things that they're doing. That's what's, I think, so much fun about this.

Right. I'm glad you pointed out that they're scoring goals off of turnovers because that was a talking point earlier in the season. I think Mark Kastner made that point on the show. I can't remember whether it was on the show. We've talked about it, though, for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Where basically the Sounders were a really effective pressing team and they were not turning that effectiveness and press into goals. Well, they've certainly started turning that effectiveness.

they're in the press and the goals now like they've they have figured out how to integrate those those two sides of their game and you know i think that i don't think that this level of goal scoring is sustainable long term

They are averaging, I think, just in MLS play, not in the League's Cup. So that's taking, you know, nine more goals in three games off the table. But just in MLS play since the Club World Cup, they're averaging. I think it was 2.87 goals per game. 2.9. Well, yeah, because they have 29 goals. So basically a pace of like, I think, 87 goals over a full season. Right. Which would be.

A new record in MLS and the current record is held by the 98 Galaxy with 85. And I think as anybody who watched MLS in 1998 knows, it's not the same sport as is being played currently. So I don't think that that is sustainable for the long term, but nothing about the proof of concept, right, about the way that they're playing, about the way they're creating chances. Nothing about that seems unrepeatable.

And I think they have found a system, they've found a way of playing that works for them, that works for the team, no matter who's on the pitch. I had major concerns about the impact on the Sounders' style of play. with jesus ferreira or danny wayba because at the time we didn't know um sliding in for for albert rusnak because i thought

you know, hey, I think Jesus is a good 10. I think Danny Leib is a good 10, but they play much differently than Albert. And I still think that they do, but it's not really that big of a difference because the system just works. And if you look at their underlying numbers, they've scored 41 in MLS play this year. Their XG is 39.8. So it's not like they're actually underperforming their XG.

They're getting a lot of easy chances that are created by repeatable patterns of play. And that is that's the difference between a team that's putting up gaudy numbers that is just getting a bunch of fluky. goals over a short period of time and a team that is actually a really potent attacking team that okay maybe they can't do this over the long haul but they can certainly be a good attacking team over the long haul absolutely it's

And I think one of the other things I like about this is they aren't getting a ton of goals from set pieces either. And I feel like set pieces are, you know, I think that was one of the things that last year maybe masked. some of their offensive struggles was that they scored a bunch of set piece goals. They ended up finishing on, I think 51 goals last year, which at the time felt like a significant step forward because they had really struggled.

the season before, I think they're on the verge actually of, of tying the number of goals they had in 2023 already this year. And. And then last year, really the big difference between 2023 and 2024 was just they scored a bunch of set-piece goals at the end of the season, which set-piece goals count just the same.

And you can and there is something repeatable about set piece goals. But I also feel like set piece goals can be a little bit more fickle in terms of your ability to convert them, because there is there, you know, it's like we have long, long sample sizes about. set pieces and it and it just the reality is that teams tend to sort of finish at a certain rate within a range of a rate and yes you know there are examples of teams over performing that but it's just not it's just not usually the most

a sustainable way to produce a ton of offense. And the Sounders aren't getting, at least in league play, they aren't getting a ton of set-piece goals. Now, they have shown in League's Cup that they have that capability. So that's encouraging that it's in their bag.

But man, in this game in particular, I think it's worth talking a little bit about sort of the Danny Masofsky phenomenon because I do think he is sort of illustrative of what is going right with the Sounders right now. And this is a player who doesn't do a lot of stuff that's fancy. He just gets himself into really dangerous spots all the time. And he's.

And he has a nose. He just sort of has a nose for gold. Both of his goals in this game were rebounds. Both of them were off of his own rebound, which is just kind of a funny little or no, I guess one of them was not. Sorry. The second one was off of Jesus Ferreira rebound. But.

Point being, he's just really good at putting himself in dangerous spots, especially on rebounds. I need to go back and look, but I feel like that's probably the fourth or fifth goal he's scored this year off of a rebound. And, you know, you just don't see a ton of that. But it's great to see because it does feel like something you can coach. Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think that putting the ball on target.

in those situations is an important thing to be able to do and i think um a lot of the time in the past maybe we've seen sounders forwards who are missing wide missing high just missing the goal right so they're not giving themselves those opportunities to uh to get those rebound goals

And I think that's been something they've been a little better at this year. I don't have numbers to back that up. It just seems intuitively true. So maybe I'm bullshit. I don't know. But yeah, I mean, I think following up opportunities. The Sounders are taking a lot more shots this year than I think I've ever seen them take. And they're getting runners in the area. Danny Mussofsky is getting into really good spots. I've said a couple of times that I think his movement.

His off ball movement is as good as anybody on the team and better, I think, honestly, than anyone else on the team. And I think that a lot of that is being able to read where is this rebound likely to fall? and putting himself in a position to clean up those opportunities, following up his own shots, and making keepers work for it. I think that that's just a critical thing. I don't think that...

I don't think finishing is real first off, but I don't think Danny Wasovsky is some kind of elite, you know, otherworldly finisher. I think he just puts the ball on target. And and doesn't give up on lost causes and knows where to be. And those are the most important things, I think, for a goal scorer. And, you know, I just he's not a guy I think you can necessarily build the team around because he's a poacher.

And he's going to score a lot of goals and get into good spots and put up good numbers. But there's a dynamic to Jordan Morris' game that he doesn't have, or to Raul Ruiz Diaz' game that he doesn't have. But he's going to score goals if he gets the opportunities. And if the team is creating this many chances... he's going to get the opportunities. And that's a valuable thing to have. In modern soccer, I think people tend to almost downplay.

scoring goals you know like that's a common criticism i think you hear a lot of players like this at the highest levels it's like well he's great but all he does is score goals that is the objective of the game right so yeah that's a pretty important thing to do to be able to do

Yeah, I've been joking. I've used this line a few times. It hasn't landed yet, so I'll use it again on air. But I've been starting to call Danny Masofsky Chris Carter. And I don't know if people will get this reference or not, but back in the day... Somebody, I can't remember who it was. Chris Carter was a very good tight end, or not tight end, a very good wide receiver, spent a lot of time with the Vikings, a few other teams. But at one point, someone accused him of only catching touchdowns.

And that sort of became his calling card about how that's all. Like, what a dig. All he did is catch touchdowns. Yeah. I mean, anyway, it's just kind of a silly. Not silly. I mean, he I do think from a perspective of who's the better player between him and Jordan Morris. Look, I think there's a reality that Jordan Morris creates a gravity around him. He can.

pulled defenses out of position in ways that Danny Masofsky can't. But right now, you know, who cares? Like, right. As long as Danny Masofsky is scoring, as long as he's doing the stuff that we need him to be doing, that's great. And again, if it was just him, if he was just on a heater, and that would be of some concern because you would have to be wondering how long can Danny Masofsky keep this up, right? But that's not what's going on here.

Pedro De La Vega, again, he didn't have a golden or an assist, but he could have easily had two assists. He has the ball to Paul Rothrock at the back post that ends up becoming an own goal. That's his. a great heavy cross that puts a defender in a really bad position. And then he also has the pass to Ferreira that ends up getting saved and falling to Danny Masovsky. That was another great play.

But we're also I think the other thing that I've really liked in the last four games, especially, is the defense is finally starting to come around. We, you know, before the Club World Cup. I think there was a growing concern that for as much fun as the Sounders were, part of it, part of the reason they were so fun was the defense was giving up a bunch of goals. And so we're getting all these high scoring games.

But in the last four, they've only given up two goals. I wouldn't say that they're fluky goals, but one of them comes at the very end of regulation when they're already up 2-0. And then the other goal...

comes at the very end of the first half on a goloso right after the Sounders miss a penalty. So they've just been very good defensively, and they were especially good against the Galaxy. And a Galaxy team who I think it's very easy to... undersell how you know it's easy to overlook because they have been so bad for the most part this year but really for the last couple months the galaxy had been very respectable

They were just coming off a very impressive performance in the League's Cup. And offensively, they had been very solid. And the Sounders had no problem cutting them up. No, it wasn't. It wasn't close. I mean, it was the sounders were under a little pressure early on, but it felt like one of those situations where the galaxy were creating pressure without actually creating pressure, you know?

And after the first goal, it was just not a contest. It was the most lopsided XG I've ever seen, I think, in a game. The Sounders on FUT Mob ended up with close to three goals, three XG.

And the Galaxy had like 0.25 or something like that. It was just not not close. And, you know, the thing is, is that even if the Galaxy are. every bit as bad as their record would indicate which i don't think they are i think that there's you know plenty of signs that they've improved a lot over the last month or so um you still have to go

to LA and beat them 4-0. And that's just not something the Sounders have made a habit of doing over the years, even at their best. Typically, the woodshedding has taken place in Seattle, even of bad teams. This I mean, this was like a cheap like Chivas level beat down. Like the Sounders have not won a game that convincingly in Carson since Chivas USA was still a team. And yeah, I mean, it was it was.

Extremely satisfying. There were some folks in the game thread saying, you know, like, yeah, this is a great win, but like, it's not, it's not a big deal. It's a bit, this is a bad galaxy team. If you've lived through the entire history of this, this team at the MLS level. Beating the Galaxy is always a big deal, especially if you're doing it in that lopsided of a fashion in Carson. It feels nothing better. Even beating LAFC doesn't feel as good.

I'm not even sure if beating the Timbers... If we beat the Timbers 4-0 at Providence Park, that probably feels as good as this, but I'm not sure it feels that much better to me, at least, personally.

wow okay well i i really really hate the galaxy a lot so okay fair enough i'm not gonna i'm not gonna try to dispute that at all uh so just sort of to illustrate your point though about you know i'm sure on this show we have said look you don't We probably said this after the Sporting Kansas City game where they eked out a 3-2 win after blowing a 3-0 lead.

or nearly blowing a 3-0 lead. And I'm sure we said something like, you just don't take road wins for granted in MLS. You just never do. And to sort of illustrate your point here, American Soccer Analysis has a stat that they call expected points. Essentially, what they do is they run the simulation of the games, I think, basically just based on the XG.

and they say how many points each team should expect to get. And a good result is in the twos. If you are over two, you have performed very well. Well, the Sounders had 2.83 expected points. in this game, which, believe it or not, is actually their season high. That's the best they performed. Going back into the ASA database, that's, I believe, the best road performance.

of any team in their entire database. And their database goes back to 2013, which is to say road teams don't dominate like the Sounders dominated this game. And I will say that there is a little bit of an anomaly in terms of the XG. When you score off rebounds, that tends to throw off the XG system a little bit because you end up getting credit for both chances. And in this game, they had a couple.

At least one of the rebounded shots, the original shot, had a pretty high XG value. So it's a little inflated. But put that aside, this was as dominant of a road performance as you're going to see in MLS. That's just... a flat out truth. You just don't see these kinds of performances a lot. You know, the press was working. The offense was working again. They made seven changes. This is a team that made seven changes from their midweek game.

And they just rolled through the Galaxy like they were nothing. And if you look at the Galaxy lineup, it wasn't a bad lineup. You know, they had Gabriel Peck. They had Joseph Paintsill. They had Marco Reus. They had... quality players all over the pitch and it didn't matter. It just didn't matter. And just to kind of, I guess we can kind of, I want to throw in one more little nugget from this week, which I thought was fun is.

Matt Doyle, who obviously we have on the show pretty regularly. But I think this means something when he says, I think the Sounders might have the deepest team in MLS history. I feel like that's not something... he's going to say lightly. Now, in the same season, he has also said that Miami might have the best team in MLS history.

You know, maybe that's but I don't know. Maybe that's where we are in MLS is that you can have both these things can essentially be true. But he said that and then he also ranked them number one in his power rankings this week, noting that. I don't know how long this is going to last, but right now they're the best team in the league. I guess what I'm saying here is let's enjoy this a little bit. They're still only fourth in the table, but they are climbing.

And this game against Minnesota is, I think, a real legitimate test. If they can get out of Minnesota, there's a chance where if they win the Minnesota game, I believe they would move into a tie for third. But even if they get a point out of this game... I would think that sets them up really nicely. Yeah, I think so. I mean, Minnesota is a good team. Obviously, I think if you go into Minnesota and you win this game.

you've got to feel great you know you've got to feel like you've got a very good team that none of this has been any kind of mirage um because yeah they would move into a tie they'd be um they'd move into a tie with a game in hand with a game in hand. Exactly. Um, they'd move to, uh, you know, as, as little as, as few as five points back of San Diego with a game in hand. Um, they'd be just a point back of Vancouver who, you know,

It has not fallen off a cliff or anything, but looked like legitimate shield contenders earlier in the year. So to catch up to them would be pretty impressive with a full... eight games left after this one. So yeah, I mean, if you, I think if you go into Minnesota and you get three points, you got to feel like we can finish first in the West. Like we could not, not, not even.

We could we should like that should be the goal is finishing first in the West. That is a realistic target. I don't think they're going to make a run at the shield, but like if they can get to 44 points with eight games left. It's at least like you can start maybe kind of sort of dreaming about it. You know, they'd be seven points back at the current pace.

It wouldn't be the craziest thing that's ever happened in the league. It's enough to make it interesting, right? Definitely enough to make it interesting. I think the challenge with... I tend to think that the... that the Western, the teams that are leading the West feel to me a little bit more like they're going to come back a little bit. They're not going to continue the pace that they're on. I mean, the reality is that if LAFC, even if LAFC.

were to maintain their current pace, they might be able to catch some of these teams. But the Whitecaps are playing still at 1.8. San Diego is playing at almost 1.9 points per game. That doesn't feel... quite sustainable to me and if the Sounders can get you know can get to those points I think that you know it's realistic I think finish again if they win this game against Minnesota I think finishing first in the West becomes a very

realistic aspiration. If not, you know, it's not going to be easy. The Sounders still have to probably get to 64-ish points to really feel like they have a good chance at winning the West.

But 64 points from eight games feels vaguely doable. Yeah, for sure. It's within the realm of possibility. Absolutely. And I think there's a very real chance that it doesn't take 64 points. Right. But I think that you've got to feel like if you get to 64 points, you're going to finish first. One thing I wanted to close the loop on real quick, if I may. 2024, the Sounders had 27 open play goals. So total goals minus.

penalties and free kicks we want to take a stab at how many they have in 2025 all right so they've just 41 right so we they're at 41 i'm not gonna look i know they i'm gonna guess they probably have So are we including our open play goal or our own goals counted? I think they only have one or I only have one in league play. Yeah. Anything that's not a penalty or a free kick. Okay. This is, yeah, I'm going to say 32.

That is exactly correct. Wow. OK, I did. I'm almost embarrassed that I guessed that. So the MLS site has them at 43. FB ref has them at 41. So that's a little weird. That's I'm sure that's because my guess is that it's because those are the own goals. Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. OK, so 32, including the own goals, 30, not including the own goals. If you take own goals out of last year, it's 25. Right. OK, so.

No matter how you slice it, they are five more open play goals than they did last year. Right. With eight games left. Also, they were a bad offensive team for the first quarter of the season. Yeah. I feel like that's, yeah, maybe creeping into third of the season. Yeah. So they, they didn't score their first. They didn't have a, a three.

well, they had the five goal game against LAFC early in the season. But other than that, the Dallas, so the, the Nashville game was the first game where they, that was sort of where the offensive turnaround really started. And that was. If we really want to chart where the season turned, it was that road game in Dallas where they won 1-0 and Danny Masofsky got his first goal off of a rebound.

of a Pedro de la Vega free kit or a ball shot off the post. But yeah, that's, yeah. So that was, and so that was two, four. six, seven. That was the eighth. That was the ninth game of the season. So yeah, the first. Yeah. The first third of the season, essentially. First fourth. Yeah.

yeah we'll say quarter just because they did like before Jordan got hurt they had a couple of multi-goal games and yeah and all that so but still I mean yeah yeah they've played so another way of illustrating this they've played They played 35 games in all comps this year. They have 65 goals across all competitions. And so 35 is obviously one more game than you play in a regular season. And this is now we're getting into real.

We're no longer comparing apples to apples, but I feel like it's illustrative. 35 feels close to 34. The only season they scored more goals than that was in 2014. And so they're not...

They're not quite at the 2014 pace if you include all competition goals. I think they were over 80 that year. Yeah. But this is easily to me. the most complete offensive team they've had. Right. I mean, the 2014 team was the Oba and Deuce show. Not sticking anything away from Marco Papa and Lamar Nagel, but they were...

solidly the sporting cast. And, you know, the Sounders have missed, been without Jordan Morris for most of the season. Right. And, you know, they've had all the other absences. And it's just, it's so impressive. It really is a... I feel like we say this every year, but this might be Maran Schmesser's best work yet. Just to completely, once again, completely overhaul the identity of the team midseason.

He can't keep getting away with it, man. It's just... There's a meme going around there that I saw on Blue Sky. where it's someone saying, it's just like clockwork, where they play the first half of the season and they look mediocre at best, and then they get to July and they just flip a switch and say, all right.

Time to play for real. And I can only imagine it must be really, really annoying for fans of other teams. Now it's annoying for Sounders fans too, I think, because it does feel like, well, we're already really going to go on another second half run. Uh, and then, and then they do, you know, I don't want to get to cart before the horse, but it is, I can see how annoying it is for everyone involved, but I, I will say as bits go, it's a good one.

It is. It's a good one. I mean, I think the reality is that it is fine to be pissed off when your team plays like crap for the first couple of months every season. it's also fine to enjoy the rest of the season right like you can you can uh you can walk and chew gum at the same time i think we're we're i guess not at the same time consecutively um and you know if i have to choose

You know, we're a big fan of false choices on the show. So if I have to choose between a shitty first half and a strong second half or a great first half and a shitty second half. I'm definitely going to take the, the strong second half, you know, like this is not a real choice that we have. No one is making us make that choice, but yeah, I'll take it. You know, this is, yeah.

Yeah. One of the things is enjoy this, folks. Enjoy this. For sure. If you're going to get good, this is a good time to get good. I always say if it's. Yeah, exactly. As the summer heat, so do the sounders. But all right. Well, I think what we're going to do, we're going to call this a segment. We're going to come back and we're going to do a power ranking of not where we want the Sounders to finish, but where we think plausibly.

I guess maybe a better way of doing this is we're going to take stabs at how we think the Sounders are going to finish the season. We'll take a look at the schedule. We'll kind of break it down. Hopefully that leads to a little bit of good times.

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Welcome back to No Sarietes. We are going to do something, you know, we like to have a little bit of fun with these power rankings. And this week, what we're going to do is we're going to rank. The most likely finishes for the Sounders, meaning where in the Western Conference table we think is most likely for them to finish. These are obviously not where we want them to finish, but where we think they will finish.

And so what we did is we gamed out the results for everybody and we sort of put them in order and how we feel like it's going to work out. And I guess we'll just start by I think what we're going to do is we're going to start by. giving you our predictions, and then we're going to talk through it. That's what we decided, Aaron.

as opposed to going i thought we decided uh to talk through it and then give predictions but either way okay no we can do that we can we can do that so let's let's talk this through so let's start the The way the table is setting up right now, the Sounders are in fourth. They are three points behind Minnesota in third. They are four points behind Vancouver. And they are... They are eight points behind San Diego. And so San Diego, admittedly, I'm looking at their schedule.

They look like they're not necessarily impossible to catch, but they'd have to really fall apart, essentially. Yeah, I think that the wheels would really have to come off for San Diego. Yeah, they have, you know, I have them as potentially finishing out with 65 points, which would be a pretty good run to end the season. That would be them going.

Basically. Oh, that's not what I don't want to do that. I don't know. How did this game actually end? So they basically would finish the season on a. eight one and one run which is maybe maybe i'm giving them too much credit that's not that that's not what they're remaining they that would be what they would finish on they're already they've already won i believe two games out of that but

Their schedule just is not very hard to end the season. They finish with the Timbers on the road, but then other than that, there's just not a lot of tough games for them. No, I think you're right. It's one of those situations where I don't really think that San Diego is necessarily as good as their record, but I also...

They've gotten through the difficult part of their schedule already, and they've got an easier run in than maybe the Sounders would like them to if they were hoping to catch them.

I don't think it's out of the question that they're going to fall apart. And this weekend, I think, is a big... This game will maybe not tell us a lot because they could probably afford to lose points this weekend. They're playing at San Jose. But that to me is sort of like a bellwether game for them, where if they if they beat San Jose, it suddenly becomes like they're virtually uncatchable as far as I'm concerned. Yeah, I think that that is.

I think that's a fair characterization. And then the Whitecaps are another team who are going to be a challenge to catch. I think they are. They're on 44 points already. And then they actually don't play San Diego anymore, which is kind of too bad, I suppose, as those things go. But what do you see them? Where's the bellwether games for them? So I think for Vancouver. They've got they've got some pretty easy home games coming up.

Houston, I mean, Houston's not terrible. St. Louis isn't terrible. But those are games that I think a team that has, you know, designs on taking a run at the Western Conference should be able to win at home. And I think that people have kind of been waiting for the other shoe to drop for for a while with Vancouver. So I think if they can win those fairly easy home games.

It's going to be tough for the Sounders to catch them. I think that, you know, this is like, I don't, again, I don't think Vancouver is as good as their record, but they played really well this year. They've got a little bit of a cushion. And I think their schedule is a little bit easier than Seattle's. They do have to play Philly at home, which is a tough game. They've got to go across the country. But yeah, they've they've got, I think, a little easier.

run in and you know they've got the muller effect so they might be able to to ride that wave a little bit so um they've got it but they've got to win those easy home games um and i think also supporting Casey on the road is going to be an important game for them because that's a game that they you know, they should be able to win if they have designs on on making a run at first place. So yeah, all that said, I think the Sounders are going to catch them, but.

um they could definitely make things a lot tougher if if they win you know if they win the games they should win the one complicating thing the most complicating thing for the whitecaps to me is that they are still alive in the Canadian championship. They play Forge FC actually tomorrow. And then they have a return leg against Forge, which comes between...

the home game against Philadelphia and a road game against Sporting Kansas City. And I would think the Whitecaps are like the Whitecaps have traditionally always. sort of gone all in on Canadian championships. They've taken this tournament very seriously. They're the three-time defending champions. I don't see any reason that they're not going to field essentially first-choice groups.

for those games so that's a maybe a complicating factor especially since they have to go on the road against forge tomorrow so that's going to be a decent little road trip They have to essentially fly across the country, right? Forge is in Halifax? Hamilton, is that right? Hamilton. Yeah, Hamilton Forge. Okay, there you go. I saw that their H was...

It shows what I know about the Canadian Premier League. So, yeah, I mean, I think that's the complicating factor, but they feel like getting to 63 points is sort of what I guessed. Where did you have them? Yeah, that seems I mean, yeah, that seems about right. I think I'm a lot less confident, though, that they're going to hit that mark than I am that San Diego is going to hit theirs. I would say I would agree. I would agree. I like the Whitecaps. I've, you know, I. I was.

Not as skeptical of them as I think a lot of other people were, although I never thought that they were really serious shield contenders. I think they have a good team. I just think this pace is a little stronger than they actually are. So I think that there's a pretty good chance that they slip a little in terms of their their points per match pace. Yeah. And then so then we got Minnesota United, who they're running is maybe a little.

you know, it could be a little bit more complicated. They are also, they also have another competition, the open cup. I mean, the Sounders also have potentially leagues cup. So that's another complicating factor, but for some reason I don't, I'm not as. I think because those games are almost all going to be at home, potentially, it makes me a little less worried about it. But anyway, we don't need to get into that. Minnesota, like this game against Minnesota, to me, is a real. This is this is.

going go a long way to determining whether or not the sounders can really get into the top three because if they can catch minnesota with a game in hand it just becomes much more of a of a race and Their run-in is not easy. There's definitely some complicating games here. Which games catch your eye as being particularly important other than the game against the Sounders this week? Yeah, obviously that's the big one. The games that...

You know, I think Minnesota needs to win. They Salt Lake is a tough place to play, but Salt Lake is not very good. They've been up and down, but yeah. They've been up and down, but they're 6-5-1 at home this year, so they have been beatable at home. So that's a game I think Minnesota should be looking to win if they want to keep pace.

Obviously, a win in San Diego would be huge. I don't think that that's a game they should expect to win, but if they could, that really changes the dynamic of things, I think. Colorado away is another one where... that game, if they win that game, those are points that maybe they aren't necessarily expecting to pick up. And if they get a point in that game and a point at RSL and a point at San Diego, I think it becomes harder to keep up the pace.

They do get to go to L.A., which, as we know, is a pretty easy walk in the park kind of game. And then they've got some easy games at home. They've got Kansas City, Chicago at home. So I think if they can do what's expected at home and maybe sneak some road points they weren't expecting, that's going to make things tougher. But I think of all the teams that we're talking through, talking about Minnesota is the one that I'm most confident of the Sounders ability to finish ahead of.

I wouldn't be shocked if Minnesota ends the season higher on the table, but I think that the Sounders will overtake them at some point.

And I would say there's a good chance they're going to be in the Open Cup final, which would give them an additional game. They're hosting Austin in the semifinals. So that's, you know, that is another complicating factor. Then the real wild card for me in terms of at least the way it relates to the Sounders is LAFC, who has two games in hand on. Almost everybody, including the Sounders, and three games in hand. Yeah, San Diego, Minnesota. Right. So they have a lot of games left to play.

They don't have any other competitions, which I suppose is good, but they don't exactly have a murderer's row of remaining games either. Home against San Diego, that's probably a big, that'll be important. They've got a road game against San Jose. What other games jump out at you as being particularly, it's funny, they go back to back against RSL. But anyway, what are the big games as far as you're concerned?

Yeah, I mean, their schedule is depressingly pretty, pretty easy. There's a lot of easy home points in here. Yeah, they're road games. They've got to go to New England, Dallas.

San Jose, RSL, Austin, St. Louis. Austin is their toughest road game remaining, I think. Or Colorado, one of the two. That's... man you would like them to have some some tougher challenges uh to have to live up to on the road um their home games you know they just they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way i think of all five of these teams their schedule might be the easiest

You mentioned the San Diego game, but that's obviously the biggest one. Like if they win that game and they perform. in the other games the way you would expect them to, they might be the favorite to finish first. Which is very painful to say. But yeah, it's...

they've just got to perform how you would expect them to perform against these teams. And they're in really, really good shape to finish, you know, in the top three, I think. Well, we won't go through the Sounders whole schedule, but what I think we both feel like. Getting to 60 points is about. About as high as they can realistically go, right? Yeah, I think they would have to go on a pretty historical run.

um which they're already kind of on so they would just have to sustain that for the rest of the way uh and and really improve on the pace right they they've got and they're gonna have look at oh go ahead they're gonna have leagues cup too which is just another And right now, the lack of depth isn't hurting them, or not the lack of depth, but the depth being tested isn't hurting them. As we get deeper into the year, maybe that's not as much the case. Maybe they need to rotate a little more often.

When you look at the schedule, you know, the games that stand out, obviously Vancouver, Portland, both at home. Those are the biggest ones in the Minnesota on the road is obviously a huge game. Everything else is a game that you. feel like you should win save for Miami away. That's the only game that Miami away game is the only like, you know, things happen, but that's the one that feels like you, you just can't really assume a point.

You know, you can't just assume points in that one. I have no expectation of getting anything out of that game. I mean, Miami hasn't been great at home this year. They're six, two and three. So they've been not quite as good as the Sounders, in fact. Still, I mean, they're, you know, it's it's definitely the toughest game they still have on the schedule. But all the rest of the games, you know, you look at them and there's really no reason to think in a vacuum. Sounders can't win that game.

Or even to go a step further, the Sounders wouldn't be expected to win that game outside of Miami and Minnesota, maybe. But you still have to do it. And like you said, stuff happens. They're probably going to drop points against teams they should beat the rest of the way. If not, if they do, let's say they win all the rest of their home games.

They win the road games that you think they have a good chance in. So they won against Minnesota. They went against Austin. They went against NYCFC. That puts them at. 24 points I think and then they let's say they get a point at Miami even That's 25. I mean, that would be an undefeated run, but yes. It would be an undefeated run. They would have to go undefeated from July onward, but that puts them at 66 points, right? Yeah, 66 points.

is probably i'm not gonna say that's the bare minimum they need to win but that would they would it would probably be a run like that for them to actually win the west right um yeah but all right well let's do this let's break it down as far as what we think the most likely outcomes are And we'll start actually at number six, meaning fifth or worse. What do you think the chance like we so what would you start at number six? What's the what do you think the least likely outcome is?

The least likely outcome is they finish anywhere lower than fifth. I think that they would have to revert to. early season, but after Jordan got hurt form for that to really be on the table for me, because even before they went on this run, they were playing at a much better pace than I think it would take for them to drop below fifth.

Would you let me just ask you this. Would you again? These are false choices. We love false choices. Would you take finishing six but winning Leagues Cup as an acceptable trade off? Or does that that's just. not unacceptable outcome is to finish lower than fifth. I think it's an unacceptable outcome. I mean, another falling behind the timbers. It would really is what it would mean.

Another false choice, too, is would I take finishing sixth and finishing third in the League's Cup? Because the only thing I care about in League's Cup really is... Although you do for finishing first, you do get a slightly easier path. You do. You skip a round in the Champions Cup. That's true. And it's a round in which we always lose a guy for several months. But yeah, I just I don't think I would.

Personally, because I think the odds are pretty good that they're going to beat Puebla and qualify for Champions Cup. And I don't want the end of the season to suck. And if they finish sixth or lower, the rest of the way is going to be kind of crappy. Yeah. All right. So what do you think is the fifth least likely outcome? So I believe please correct me if I'm wrong because we went through a few permutations of this list, but I believe that the fifth.

least likely outcome is finishing fifth? That's what we decided. No, I think we said, I think we decided that fifth was slightly less likely to happen than first. I think, yeah. And I think that's true. Yeah. I mean, essentially what we're saying is we think there's a good chance they're going to maintain their current position or improve. Yeah.

Because the place they are now on the table, fourth place is including that really bad run of form when, you know, they looked like it might be another one of those years. And I just. assuming they don't get significantly more hurt than they are now, which hell, it's always a possibility. I just don't see them reverting to that level of form. It's just hard for me to see, given the way they've played. I don't.

Like I said earlier, I don't think they're going to keep up this pace specifically the rest of the way, but I think that they are a very good team that's going to continue to play very well. So I just don't see them slipping to that degree. Yeah, and for what it's worth, the Sounders have been... the second best team in the West since early April, essentially. Yeah. Yeah. But I will also say, I think that this is optimistic, right? Yeah, sure. I think this is a slightly roasted state of mind.

yeah yeah i think that's that's fair uh all right and then number four uh savvy listeners will probably have figured out that that would be first place um it's it's a very difficult mountain to climb i think i think that from you know first place in terms of the outcomes right six five and four or worse than fifth and first, I think there's a very solid line in terms of probabilities. I do not think the Sounders have a good chance of finishing first. I am not a bookie.

an odds maker, what have you, but I would put the odds of them finishing first at lower than 10% probably. Yeah, I don't. If looking at the schedules, it feels like getting to first requires. Not just a great run for the Sounders, but it requires some teams to drop points we just don't think are likely to drop. Multiple teams. A bunch of teams dropping points. That's the problem. If they just had to catch San Diego.

Yeah, maybe. But yeah, but no, I agree with you. All right. So third least likely outcome. I think that's fourth. Third most likely outcome. Third most likely outcome. This is, boy, I should have written this down. I think that that is finishing third. Oh, I think that... Oh, okay. Sorry, fourth. Fourth. No, you're right. Fourth. I said I should have written it down. I did write it down. That's where they are now. Good for us. And I don't think it's indicative of the...

the performance we can expect the rest of the way. I think that's including kind of the figuring out who they were phase of the season. And I don't see that happening again, barring something unforeseen. which I don't want to speak into existence. But yeah, I think that they're going to finish higher than they are now. I wouldn't be shocked. I think they could still play quite well the rest of the way and end up and forth, you know, if all it would take.

would be two of the teams ahead of them and LAFC playing well the rest of the way for them to finish in fourth. So I don't think it's crazy outcome by any stretch, but I do think they're going to move ahead before the end of the year. yeah and so the second uh most likely outcome you think is i think is third this was a tough one um this was a this was a or did we say second i thought we said third i thought we said second but

OK, see, it was it was a tough it was a tough discussion. It was a tough discussion. Yeah, I think you're you know, I think I think you're right. Ultimately, I think it probably is second. Just because I think LAFC is going to rack up a bunch of points, I think that the odds of them finishing first are actually not terrible. Assuming they win the two games in hand, they've got their only six points behind San Diego.

and they have a really favorable schedule. But I think one of those two teams is going to finish first. I feel pretty confident that the Sounders can leapfrog Minnesota and Vancouver. I don't feel confident that they can hold off LAFC necessarily. And I definitely don't think they can catch San Diego. So yeah, so there you go.

Yeah, so that leaves us with where we think the Sounders are going to finish is probably third in the West, which would leave them behind two of probably San Diego, Vancouver, and LA FC. Yeah. Which feels...

About right. If the Sounders finish third in the West and qualify for Champions Cup through Leagues Cup, I would consider that a very satisfactory... end of this regular season and i think it puts them in a good position and it would also and it would put them in pretty good position to get to the uh in the playoffs uh that would essentially keep them out of the

They would keep them off the side of the bracket of whoever wins the West. They would have to potentially visit the second place team in the... or in the Western Conference semifinals. Unfortunately, finishing third probably means a three-game series with the Timbers. Yeah. Yeah. Which, you know, I don't love, but I think that how they play against the Timbers at home, if they can finally, finally, finally get that monkey out their back.

Now, maybe the playoffs is where we do that now, right? Because we, I mean, that's what it took against LAFC. Let's not tempt that. Let's take care of business at home against the Timbers and then take care of business in the playoffs. So that's what we have to do. But yeah, the Timbers actually. Yeah. I was gonna say the Timbers have a little bit of a tough run into the, there's a decent chance they don't, they don't finish that. They have one of the toughest, I believe one of the toughest.

end of the season schedule so it's possible they drop below six but um i i wouldn't mind avoiding i don't really love the idea of playing the timbers in the playoffs although maybe if they they thump them at home on the season finale. I'll feel differently. Yeah. That's, you know, fair point. I, uh, I think with the context of the way the season has gone, um, in terms of stuff that.

that they couldn't have prevented Paul Areola getting hurt, you know, what, like two, two league games and Jordan Morris being unavailable for almost that long. The, all the other injuries they've had. I just, I don't think how, and then also the way they've been playing, right? The, the run they made in leagues cup and the, you know, the league phase and then the goals they've been scoring. I mean, all.

all we talked about last year was like, yeah, it's great that they went on this run and have given us something to look forward to in the playoffs, but they're, you know, they still weren't scoring goals and there was still a lot of dissatisfaction and, um,

There just isn't any of that this year. They are playing lights out. They are playing, I think, objectively fun soccer. Like last year, I was sort of a dissenting voice and saying that, like, I get that this isn't for a lot of people, but I'm enjoying this. I think everybody that likes soccer likes to watch this kind of soccer. It's a lot of fun. It's great to score a ton of goals. And, you know, hopefully the attendance is a lagging indicator for sure.

But if the Sounders are going to get a buzz going without making a big major signing, this is a way to do it. This is a way to get the crowds back is to play this kind of soccer. So hopefully we see that over the last couple. weeks of summer here and uh yeah if we finish third i feel pretty good about that yeah yeah absolutely well um probably a good place to or that is the that's that's it that's our show

We don't have anything else to discuss, but thank you again to all of you for listening. The subscription drive has gone very well. I'll just say we have added about. I think we've netted close to 40 new subscriptions in the month of August, which is great news. We are doing well. I'm very happy. But I also want to encourage anyone, if you're a regular listener to this show.

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And Hacks and Ferments for sponsoring the show, for sponsoring the Sounder Heart Podcast Network, in fact. So that's been awesome. Thank you, Aaron. Thank you, Lickit, for producing the show. I'm Jeremiah Shan, signing off for Nos Adietes. And remember, you'll never get alone. I expect the LAFC who is motivated to prove themselves at home, to prove to their fans that they're capable of winning in this league. And it's up to us to really brew in the party. better than Bob.