¶ The Presidential Race Analyzed
You and I are told increasingly we have to choose between a left or right . Well , I'd like to suggest there is no such thing as a left or right . There's only an up or down . This is the no Doubt About it podcast . No doubt about it .
And now your hosts , christy and Mark Roncetti Wildfire , you can't care for sound Running running running dead Out of your own .
All right , Ava , thank you . We're playing her today . Yeah , Ava's got no headsets so she has no idea what's happening with the audio on this particular program .
She's going to wing it my back's out again . And Jaya's a broken wrist , so you're the only one not on the non-injured list right now , mark . Yeah , so you're going to carry the show .
Ava , you may want to bring audio down just slightly , just a slight bit for the three of us , but good work Anyway , appreciate your help .
I'm always happy to help , Mark . Yeah , I know you are . I know you are .
And , by the way , Ava , earlier today takes the ACT .
I did 8 am to like 1.5 , 30 pm . Yes .
Yeah , well , that's good . Did you use that kind of time-telling skill ? Yeah , that's scary , I don't know how that happened .
I've never said that before in my life , it just kind of was a result .
Well and you're thinking about Air Force Academy . You're going to have to speak in military time . Look , I'm going to be honest with you I'm not getting into the Air Force Academy with those .
ACT scores . That I've just got , it'll be fine , it'll be fine . I wrote a five-page essay and they're going to take one look at it and be like all right . We're moving on this is it .
We're moving on , don't you worry . Okay . Well , this is a special edition of the show . We have a Jay McCluskey , famed political analyst and campaign . Well , not only veteran , but he's campaign consultant and does a lot of great work .
This is a seismic week in the presidential race because of what happened with Joe Biden , so we wanted to bring you in and that's really what we're going to talk about here is where is this race going ? What's happening here ? And I think we are all headed for something we've never seen in our lifetimes .
So let's talk a little bit about what happened this week in a broad sense and then we'll get into the audio and we'll break it down as we go . But first of all , jay , your thoughts on what you saw , what disaster unfolded for the ?
president , it was just unreal . I mean , that report comes out , Biden comes out , he's in Virginia , spikes the football you know is basically praising it . It starts spinning out of control on them . They make some we'll probably get into this Some pretty questionable decisions on how to handle it and it just got worse and worse and worse .
Well , I mean and he comes out of 745 , which I think we all know that Joe's bedtime is about 630 . So , just like , why did anybody think that this was going to be the best way for him to respond to this ?
Here's what I didn't understand , because he'd already made comments on it , right , you know . So it's not like you needed to get video of him and you're joking about that , obviously , but it's true . He's not going to be as good at night like that , so why are you doing that ? And it looks panicky .
Yeah .
Because you roll him out there when you don't normally do it , and it clearly misfires .
It was a disaster .
So just for those of you who want a quick recap on all this , basically what happened was there was a special investigation into how Biden handled classified documents not dissimilar to Trump in the respect that they both took documents that they should not have taken and so what happened was , with a special investigator and all this , they go look into it and the
guy basically says , hey look , he knowingly took these things . He put them in a place that was unsecure . It basically said we're not going to charge him now .
And the whole reason we're not going to charge him is because he mentally doesn't have the capability to understand what he did , and if he got in front of a jury he would be a very sympathetic figure . They say he's basically a doddering old fool who doesn't know what he's doing . I mean it was the worst possible scenario .
He would have been better off being , or actually absolutely charged when he once he left office right 100% , I mean .
And so he gets the worst possible thing , because and we talk about this all the time in politics the worst thing that can happen to you is that a narrative gets started about you and then you reinforce it 100% and it's like the number one rule in those crisis situations is don't make it worse , like slow down , do not make it worse .
And they just threw gas on the fire .
He just looked at the wood chipper and was like , let me just dive in there and see what's happening .
Well , it was crazy because I was like making dinner and Mark comes running out and he's like oh my gosh , you're going to turn this on . And he's like this is unbelievable , like who decided that this was a ? This is a great way to respond .
Right , and so let's talk about . Let's talk about what he did and we'll kind of break down what he did so . So this report comes out and all of a sudden it's catching fire everywhere . Everybody's talking about it and saying effectively too big . The two biggest things I think that were the most jarring out of this is number one .
He could not recall when he was vice president . So that's the equivalent of taking the biggest job you've ever had to that point and saying what year did you , you know , become vice president ? Well , obviously , they won the 2008 election . He was roughly January 21st , 2009 . Like that's it .
Even I know when Biden became vice president , right , and he couldn't tell those dates . And then he couldn't tell the date when his son , bo , died . Now the Bo situation too , something else to think about here . He regularly says Bo was killed in Iraq . He regularly says that .
Especially this past year .
Which absolutely did not happen , right . So this is not something new where he's confused this and had issues .
I think he said it a week ago to a woman who lost her son . He made a call to her and told her specifically that he had just . You know , he lost his son to Iraq .
Yeah , yeah , and I think calling him a liar isn't fair in this case , because I don't think he knows anymore .
Well , and I think he was trying to score some political points on that as far as them bringing up . But I think what the special prosecutor was saying is this is obviously a huge event in his life and something that means a lot to him and he still couldn't recall . Yeah , like that's kind of the point , yeah .
Okay so .
But also in the report . My understanding is they did find him guilty of a lot of things .
Oh yeah , I mean the whole stuff , taking stuff out of the skiff , which is a classified , where they're reviewing classified information in the Senate . You can't bring anything in or take anything out . You know just the fact that he brought it out like game set match . Yeah , you know you can't do that .
Yeah , but this all happens and it blows up to the point where they're terrified all of a sudden , right . So all of this is going down and it's blowing up . So the question is what do you do ?
So if you're sitting next to Joe Biden before we get into the disastrous press conference , if you're sitting next to him , do you not say look , I get that this is uncomfortable right now , but we've got to ride this out with some , with the statements we've already given , and just let the weekend pass before we do anything else ?
Is that what you're telling them ?
I mean I don't think you want to roll out there that night because he'd already said something and you know he's not going to be strong enough and it doesn't matter , like what's the best thing to do , what's the best thing he's able to do , and I think you get surrogates out there and if you're going to do something in the morning or something , you get a
prep right . But you have to think it through . I mean it really is . You have to slow down in a situation like that enough to say don't make it worse , we can't make it worse . And rolling him out there like that You're just , it's a gamble and they know it . They know that's why they don't do those press conferences with him normally .
And when you're going to roll him out there in that situation , it's that late at night , like you're asking for it .
And I get okay . So I mean I know I'm going to be conspiracy theorist here , but any chance this was done on purpose by his party to basically push him off a cliff .
It wouldn't surprise me if it was him or Jill or someone else . Like we have to go out there . This is BS . I can't believe they're saying that about , but like we got to get him out there and someone , that's where you have to say no .
Yeah , yeah , I totally agree . I think he and Jill if we're just guessing on this I think he and Jill went out there and said no , we're going , we're going to talk about it .
I don't know , you guys I think . I think there's been so much back and forth from what we're , what we're hearing in the party at the democratic side of things , that there's a lot of people that want him out because they don't think he'll win right . He's clearly showing he doesn't have the capabilities to do so .
He and Jill have said we're not going anywhere , we're here on , fine . You know what's the big thing that you've been talking about ? His campaign slogan is like he's on fire , he's ready to go , or whatever . His ridiculous Whatever slogan hearing they have , yeah exactly , and so he's not willing to back down at all .
Do you think that this could be some sort of a setup ?
I know what that is . Not with the staff . I mean , how the party feels is one thing , but that staff's going to be loyal Loyalty Right .
Right , I think he wanted to go out there and so obviously he did . And when he did , he got destroyed in a couple of different ways and in it , honestly , it was one of those things that got worse and worse as you went . And so let's start with he goes out there , fires off an angry statement right out of the shoot , which is fine .
I mean , I don't , you know that , doesn't ? I don't think that weighs things either way . But then when the press starts asking questions , and when they do , the character of the questions one from Peter Ducey and then one from another reporter basically were so did the look was horrendous . So this is where things started to turn .
So let's start with Ducey and what he said .
In the way the president reacted , President Biden , something that special counsel said in his report is that one of the reasons you were not in charge is because , in his description , you are a well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory .
I'm well-meaning and I'm an elderly man and I know what the hell I'm doing . I've been president . I put this country back on his feet . I don't need his recommendation .
How bad is your memory and can you continue as president ?
My memory is so bad , I can let you speak . That's , that's that's what you're . My memory is not good . My memory is fine .
Okay , I mean that . Look alone , remember , it's a , it is a presidential press conference . It's on every network . You're not escaping that . And when you're sitting there , you're not going to escape working your way through that and you watch him . You even just see it in him and you hear it in his voice .
He has an inability to make his own case and when that happens , I don't know where you go with it . So when the press is openly standing up raising their hand , saying are you competent to hold office , and he has to honestly give an answer versus saying that's outrageous .
Right , he can't , and that's a horrible look , and they've tried to do that for a long time . I mean , I think they've made mistakes , like they're trying to make him , you know , look physically stronger . So they put him on a bicycle and he falls over .
And .
I mean you . Just there's certain things , it's like what they should do , that they can't . You can't put him out there the way he needs to be out there to prove something that we almost true .
Well , and I had heard and read that the first minute and a half of that speech was on a teleprompter and he was expected to give the first minute and a half and then just say good night .
Yeah , which he should have not .
Which is what absolutely should have walked out , and then he chose not to do that Right .
And we're going to get into the horror that must have unfolded with his com staff .
Oh , I get . They had to have a heart attack .
Oh yeah , especially when you get to the back half of this and you get to Israel later .
I'm surprised somebody didn't like , come rush from rushing here the old hook and let's just take him off the stage Unreal .
Okay , so we get to number two . So then the next reporter gets a crack at Biden , and here comes clip number two and again starts to lose his temper a little bit .
Mr President , for months , when you were asked about your age , you would respond with the words watch me . Many American people have been watching and they have expressed concerns about your age .
That is your judgment . That is your judgment . That is not the judgment of the press .
They expressed concerns about your mental acuity . They say that you are too old . Mr President , in December you told me that you believe there are many other Democrats who could defeat Donald Trump , so why does it have to be you now ? What is your ?
answer to that question , because I'm the most qualified person in this country to be president of the United States and finish the job .
¶ Biden's Mental Health and Policy Gaffes
Then I started OK , first of all , he even screws that up because he meant to say that's not the judgment of the people , right .
And he said the press and the press .
Well , and also , I think , just in general , like I have a lot of friends that have had aging parents and whenever they have approached them about their memory and maybe seeing a doctor or something to that degree , they get very defensive . Like my memory is fine . I mean , none of us want to be told that our memory is going right .
I mean , obviously he's in a different position , he's the most powerful man in the world , so it is important to make sure that that guy is on track . But I think just him showing his defensiveness really also cast a light about really where he's at just in his mental health .
And if you look at it , I mean it's apples and oranges , but when Reagan dealt with it , he's humor .
And like the way he knocked it down versus this , and again it's apples and oranges , because it's not nearly as serious as this in the sense of it's all obvious with Biden , but him reacting like that , with anger , and then the problem is you're not going to be a sharp , but he's not . He's not normally doing that and he's , he reacts that way .
And you know , here it comes , yeah , it comes , the interception .
Yeah , I know he's thrown over the middle and he no longer has the arm strength to fit it in .
So so yeah , and the Reagan thing that made the , even the comparisons to Trump , or even going back to Reagan where , where people brought this stuff up , one of if you've read a lot of books on Ronald Reagan , one of the saddest things about Reagan was when he retold a story at the end of his term . It was , it was done Right .
He told one story twice at an event and everybody was like right , I mean this is , this is such a . It's a whole different level . I mean , it's a whole different level with what we're seeing right now and that's why it's heartbreaking to watch .
And I think what's devastating in the problem they're going to have moving forward with him is you're asking voters the question is he qualified now , as he mentally fit now , and they're saying no . And then if you ask the follow up , do you think he will be for four years , four years from now ? There's no way , there's no .
I mean , it's actually five years , right , it's fine .
I mean they're just not yeah . No one's going to believe . No , I know , and we'll get to our predictions on this and what we've said from the very beginning , because the number right now , I believe , is 23 percent . That thinks he's mentally , mentally fit to do this job .
So that gives you an idea . It's , it's unbelievably . That actually seems high . Well , well , it is .
So OK . So here's . Here's the part of this where , if you're part of his comm staff , you're looking at this and , as he does what he's about to do , disaster is unfolding . You can just , you can just imagine what they're dealing with . So he goes through this , he gets asked those questions . It's a terrible look , it's difficult .
It's already bad , but it's about to get a whole lot worse . He starts walking off the stage and ultimately , again , he's president of the United States . So if he wants to turn back and start to answer some more questions on an issue that he manages to screw up , again , he gets to do it . And here he goes , he's about to walk off .
Just standing there .
He comes back to the stage right here , but those of you listening , and he has to reopen his binder and find his speaking points .
I'm a view , as you know , that the conduct of the response In Gaza , in the Gaza Strip , has been over the top . Pause it right there .
Eva . I think that he just made major news , huge , huge news . He just said the Israeli response to the slaughter of innocent Israeli in Israelis on October 7th is over the top . That is not the position of the United States government right now . It's not , it's not , it's not , and he just said it .
I think he was winging that too , because if you look at it , he's trying to find his place . He couldn't get his talkers , yeah .
The other thing is you know our president is speaking , he's speaking to multiple audiences and you know it's our allies , it's Israel , it's the Israeli war cabinet which gets I think we'll get to some of that later that he is sending some huge messages to you . That's not an art , natural national interest to be doing .
Yeah , and again that that takes , that takes Hamas , that changes their approach with the hostages . Right , because if there is no daylight between the United States and Israel , that continues to put more pressure on Hamas , but instead now he has political issues in the middle of this too .
Right , because he knows that he has a problem on his left flank , because he has a huge portion of his party that more and more is coming out for at least on the Palestinian side , if not on on Hamas's side . So so he realizes this is a problem . So , you're right , he's speaking , he's saying what he really thinks .
Yeah , I was going to say Versus what is actually makes sense for the United States government , which is very . When you can't tell the difference and you're just going out there speaking and you have no guardrails because he has none left , you all of a sudden start making new policy on the fly , which is terrifying , Right , yeah ?
So I was going to say you don't think that he meant to do that , obviously Right . No , yeah , oh gosh . No , I don't .
Okay , so a pick that . Can we pick that quick . Can we pick that back up ? Okay , so we'll pick it back up . So he makes new news on that front and then he keeps going .
As you know , initially the president of Mexico Cici , did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in .
All right , I talked to number two . There's more news . President Cici of Mexico .
Well , he's deciding on if the border should stay open and over there to bring aid over in Gaza Strip .
You didn't know that you didn't get that memo . Yeah Well , cici is , but I'm not sure the president of Mexico is Well they're joining forces , apparently , and he's talking to both of them . Again , if you're sitting , what are you doing at this point ?
Well , I mean and it's the one thing you cannot do it's like you're holding a press conference to knock down allegations that you're you cost too much and you start dropping .
F bombs in the middle of there .
Like you can't . The one thing you cannot do is have a gaffe there , which is why he should have stuck to that script . You got to be really tight , I mean , and he can't .
And I'm losing count , but I think this is the fourth leader that he has said he's talked to . That's the wrong name , or the wrong person , or they're dead or whatever .
Third or fourth yeah .
In a week ? Yeah , no .
I think I think the reason he took the bait is he was coming back to say I'm going to show them how in command I am on all of this and I'm going to talk through all the things I've done behind the scenes , and it was like here we go , Couldn't do it .
No , you just stood on top of a volcano and erupted right there .
Is it warm and then bang . And this is the problem that that and this is the overall problem that they have , which is it's only going to get worse . So the more that you can't , you can't add more Biden and fix it , and that's what makes him impossible to plan for as a candidate , because every step you're scared to death , every word you're scared to death .
And even look at the Super Bowl right Today . Right , he's not going on the Super Bowl , he's not gonna speak to a hundred million Americans . It's a politician's dream .
Well , he turned it down last year . I believe too .
Yeah , well , because their best strategy is the basement strategy . The problem for him now is everyone gets the joke and they can't get away with that as much anymore . But that's the problem . Everything you should do to like get him out that you can't because you can't do it .
Didn't Trump step up and say he wanted to do the interview ?
Trump said he'd do the interview which is classic and I don't think he did it when he was president either ?
Oh , yes , he did . I thought there was one time he said no too , but that could be wrong .
No , he would never , I don't care . They could put you across from Satan himself and you'd be like , all right , let's dance .
I mean , then you fight with him , that's fine , you fight with him Trump . I mean he always sparred with him , absolutely he was in front of lane one or wherever it was , whether he was a presser or not .
You feel the so Jay you're the comms director or you're in charge of that situation , and you have made that little booklet for him . You and your team , jay , have made that little booklet for him and you watched this happen .
I would have been swinging from the shower rod .
Okay , it is funny too , I mean , are they ?
like this . Are they like giving the sign behind him Like you got to stop ?
We'll never know , but it would be interesting how much prep they did . And if he was just supposed to go out there and deliver remarks and leave , they may not have done a bunch of prep . And then all of a sudden he starts answering questions .
You haven't prepped for it , because the way you handle Doocy , the way you handle some of that , I can't tell if they prepped it much . He had that joke set up for Doocy . That didn't really work for him . So maybe they prepped some . But again , if you're bringing him out there that late at night , that means you're prepping for him .
You'd have to prep hard on that . And then you're like he's going to be too exhausted . It's just a really bad idea . They did not and they already had sound and video of him from that day . They could have waited . They'd say you know what , if we're going to do this , let's do it in the morning .
That's what I'm going to try to do If he was pushing that hard and say all right , if we're going to do it , let's do it in the morning , let's get fresh , let's get ready , let's get all our ducks in a row , let's get the serragates out now and try to knock it down , and we'll go after it in the morning and then we'll control the whole day by doing it
in the morning . But clearly that didn't work .
Now , when you say serragates , are you talking about that press secretary that also deflects every single question with a finger pointing Well , it could be press secretary , members of Congress , senators , it could be whomever , whoever they're going to get on these cable shows , whoever's talking about it , to try to knock some of it down .
But the problem is he can't do it , and you have to recognize that . You can't just pick up the playbook and say , okay , here's what we need to do . We've got to know who you have .
We're going to run a triple reverse . You're like the guy's got a broken leg . You're like , well , we've got to run it .
He says we're running right here .
It's on the script at 15 Plays we're doing . So here we go . Well , speaking of one of his serragates , Christy , your favorite , Kareen Jean-Pierre .
She is my favorite , I tell you what .
She has got a tough job , and so , after this happens , she has to come out and she's got to run interference . It's her job and here's how that went .
Special counsel says President Biden's got significant limitations on his memory . Then who is helping him run the country ?
The President of the United States runs the country . The commander-in-chief runs the country .
How can he be trusted with the nuclear codes ? If I get that you're saying that nobody in the building would say that he's got an issue with his memory . But just a little part of what we get to see . He's made mistake after mistake after mistake after mistake on camera this week .
So I want to be very clear here . The reality is that report , that part of the report , does not live in reality .
It just doesn't so the special counsel is lying about the President . Hold on right there .
It is , it was .
She's trying to make a case to everyone in the country not to believe their own eyes , right .
And I mean , if she really goes out with that theory , then he should be able to be held accountable by a jury .
Well , and then I mean this isn't the main mistake . The main mistake is exactly what you said , like she's trying to tell people they're not seeing what they're seeing . And the other thing is they just ran around attacking Trump , for , oh , he's attacking the , you know , the DOJ and prosecutors and this and that .
And now they're out there saying , oh , this is all politically motivated , this is gratuitous shots by a crazy prosecutor .
Yeah , so that sounds familiar . Talk about fogging it up . This really fogged it up , and you're just going to lose that fight .
I mean , it's a foolish place for her to go .
Yeah .
I mean honestly , like arguing on that issue . You're just not going to win . They have to pivot it .
Okay , hold on , hold on .
Hold on , one quick take , we'll get to that . You're right on the pivot , right , so she pivots . She does pivot , in fact , david . Let's finish her statement and watch where she pivots to .
To it is . You heard from my , you heard from Ian Sam's , my colleague it is unacceptable and it does not live in reality .
That is just the facts , and and look , it is a close case that is what the special counsel said , and what matters is here is that the president in the last three years has delivered on the economy , has delivered on healthcare , has turned this country around , after the last president left us with an economy that was in a tailspin .
Okay , right there , that's what we were dealing with If you're a family living in reality right now . You look back to Trump and do you think we were in a tailspin ? Right , they don't believe that . They don't buy it . They don't buy it , nor should they . The average family now pays $800 a month more just to survive versus where they were with Trump .
So she pivots exactly what you said , but she pivots into a lawnmower because because you can't make that case either . And you can make the case that the economy is better from a macro standpoint . Okay , go and sit at someone's kitchen table and explain the GDP to them while they show you their monthly bills and tell you to pound sand .
Right , and that's where she's going with it , and that's an impossible case to but here's the question again , and this is something we debated over during the local
¶ Media's Reaction to President Biden
election here . The statewide election here is do people connect the dots between leadership and your grocery bill being so high or your utility bill being out of control ?
Here's the big problem I think he asked is one he is responsible for it . Sometimes presidents like things happen in the economy and you know they get more credit or more blame , whatever , but in his case he exploded the spending . He's the one who created the inflation wave . He's absolutely the one who does it .
The big problem they have is anything that happens good , they don't see him as competent voters don't , so they don't believe you had anything to do with it . They don't believe he gets credit for that's why they're like why don't we get credit ? Because they know you don't know who the . You know the difference between the president of Mexico and Egypt .
But guess what ? They do give him credit for screwing up because they think Right , because they know that that's it .
And that's where she's telling them you're not seeing what you're seeing . That's just not going to work .
Yeah , we played the PR game the other day on our show and we're talking about , like , what should she be saying instead of that . So she's asked that question . You know he's obviously making a lot of gaffes over the last week . Uh , this reports come out . You know who's running the actual presidency .
Which is a great question in of itself .
Yeah , so and she , if you watch her , she says the commander in chief , the president of the United States , something like she never says Joe Biden , which I know that's the assumption , because she's saying you know the president or whatever .
But I just thought it was interesting that if I'm defending somebody personally at that point that's a personal attack on his memory . I would say president Biden is the one that's in control here .
Well , I mean , it's just who's there . What's their best asset ? In their minds , their best asset is Trump and instead of contrasting that which is you know and you can't argue with it , like they're trying to do you have to dismiss it . Okay , you know like , look , you can take shots at him . He sat there for five hours over two days and did an interview .
He's the only one who did it , the other guy didn't . You know what I mean ? You've got to make it about something , not saying that's going to work because that thing exploded the way it did , but the way she's handling it , and you're just fighting on that ground over and over .
You're done Like it's and I just we've talked about this forever , Mark , they don't get the same aggressiveness out of the press all the time . They don't see very many zero blitzes , and so they saw a couple of that day and they panicked , Absolutely panicked . As Republicans , they do it all the day .
Trump had to handle that every time he went to Marine One and he loved it . He could handle it .
They don't see that all the time , and I think that's why they panicked and they started like oh , they chucked the ball over the middle , and just say , oh , they threw it over the middle , and it's exactly right .
And this is why the press is doing themselves such a disservice in the country , because every Democrat who holds office , whatever the office is , just like every Republican , should have to face tough questions , and when you do , you make them better .
Right , but what's happened is he's gotten a free pass for so long , he can't handle it , his press secretary can't handle it and they don't have competent people to do the job , and so that's why the press is , in giving away their power to hold power accountable , they've absolutely done an incredible disservice , not only to the country , but to the very people
they go easy on .
Well , and you can hear that I think it was the first question that reporter asked me I'm like come on , there's someone else who can win , like why would it be you ? You're going to get us like Trump , like it was like just asking it . She's going to cry .
Yeah , okay , all right . So then . So the media reaction , the reality is , anytime you have groups like MSNBC or CNN just even holding him accountable in any way , it's jarring . It's jarring to watch . And , in fact , cnn jumped on the fact that Biden started this whole thing . We didn't do sound on it because it's not as important .
But Daniel Dale , who we're all very fond of from the governor's campaign that took a shot at our ad , literally went on CNN and went after us , this clown that we're about to show .
So he goes out and he fact checks Biden , what he says about the report on him , and this is just another example of the fact that not only are they saying that he doesn't have the memory and the capacity to handle the job , they're also calling him a liar .
All the stuff that was in my home was in filing cabinets that were either locked or able to be locked .
Daniel .
Just just not true , john . This report from the special counsel includes photos . Those photos include shots of a box just sitting in President Biden's Delaware garage . The special counsel described it as a badly damaged box sitting amid household detritus .
So there was some material that was in cabinets locked or lockable , as the president said , but all of it certainly not . And that open , unsealed , damaged box included , according to the special counsel , highly sensitive top secret material about the war in Afghanistan . Okay , another claim that President Biden made none of the documents were highly classified .
Just listen .
None of it was high classified , didn't have any of that red stuff on it . You know what I mean . Around the corners , none of that .
Daniel , that claim that he didn't have any material that was quote unquote , high classified is also not true , john .
Okay , so Well , didn't have the red stuff on it Right didn't have . No , you know we don't get to see it , Joe , that's the issue .
Yeah , that's the point . We don't really know cause it's classified .
Joe .
So , but that just tells you that they're starting to jump on this too , and it just tells you how damaging this whole thing was .
This is you guys . I know you're gonna give credit now to CNN and no one's not no credit at all . This is all a plan I'm telling you . They're trying now to over .
Like they know they can't win with this guy and they're all now people are trying to like really realize okay , we've got to change this around , we've got to push this guy off the boat so we can figure out a new game plan .
And I think everybody that is anti-Trump in the media and in the party or whatever they're pushing him off the boat now because they're trying to cook up another plan .
That's how they're- I mean , I can see it , but here's the issue . Just on the fact check stuff though , like they're trying to contrast what he did with what Trump did and they really can't anymore . No , it's all the same Like cause he had , he absolutely willfully retained it they talk about . Oh well , trump , it was the obstruction of justice .
His ghost writer , the special prosecutor found that Biden spoke with about classified and showed the classified information of the Afghanistan war plans , that once he learned of the special counsel investigation , deleted the audios . So that is very clearly obstruction of justice . He didn't get charged . It plays so into what Trump wants to talk about on this .
On all sorts of different levels , on all sorts of different levels . Okay , so let's now , let's get into some detail .
I want to get into detail because we get quite asked this question all the time now , which is , and we've said from the beginning , I've said for months to you two jokers at this very table that there's no way Biden's gonna be the nominee , and I still believe that I think he's out . So the question is if that was gonna happen , how would it happen ?
How would it go ? So , what are the processes ? So I want to get in with you guys and get your reaction to what the process would look like .
Well , first Mark . I mean , I would assume that a party that cherishes democracy and protects democracy , the voters , would be the ultimate decision maker .
Oh , no , Jay it doesn't look like that . It doesn't look like that .
¶ Democratic Nomination Process Uncertainty
It appears from our research and we got a lot of this from 538.com that the party insiders , it turns out , may well have the biggest say in all this .
So voters could vote for one candidate and the insiders could just change it .
And , as a matter of fact , they absolutely can . And anyone who tells you that there's this , that there's no way to change out Biden , it's just not true . It's not true in any way . Okay , so let's start with the purposes of this discussion . We're not gonna involve the Republican party or Trump , because right now that doesn't appear to be on the table .
Okay , and that could change , and if it changes , we'll get into it , cause there are some differences between Republicans and Democrats and how they view their conventions , and that's what really this gets down to is a convention that's gonna happen in the middle of August for the Democrats . So let's start , all right .
So this is an article from 538.com and I'm gonna carry you through this as we go . So , ava , let's go with the clip seven , okay .
So what happens and we're gonna go time frame by time frame if Biden were to leave before March or right up until March , okay , and what basically happens here is that what they've told 538 is one of the least complicated times for the front runner to leave the race would be effectively right now , when no voting has started in most states .
You've got a couple of states , but not really . Okay , it's , and now there's somewhat of a chance for them to have a real race . A bunch of people could jump in and they could try to get on the ballots in some of these races .
The problem is and what we see with the next graphic , is that most of the deadlines for getting on the ballot in individual states are gone . It's already happened .
So if you happen to be watching this on YouTube , you can see the graph here and you can see various graphs would say , basically , early January is when most of the deadlines already get on the primary ballot in most of these states . So it's gonna be really difficult to do , okay , to get people on the ballot and to have a real primary .
So that antiquated idea that the voters get to choose the nominee is gone okay , that is gone okay . So there's no doubt that if you're waiting for a group of Democrats Newsom to jump in Whitmer , to jump in anybody , to jump in and then have a real primary , that ain't happening and , believe me , they know this . So that's how that shakes out .
And so what would happen then ?
Well , Well , let me just interrupt you really quickly .
Yeah .
On the whole primary thing . Explain this to me because I'm sure I'm not the only one out there that is confused by this , but it appears to be that the early primaries really dictate who gets on these .
But I mean , I know that every state has a , you know , wants to have a primary vote , right , but it's really determined who's gonna be the candidate pretty early on by certain states , right .
Well , I mean , there's two different things . That's when the election is held , but they before that .
They have to get on the ballot , that's to get on the ballot right .
And so they have to , whether petition signatures , whatever the requirements are in that state to be able to get on the ballot . And what Mark's saying in this is those dates are fast . They can't get on the ballot . You can jump out .
There's no way to put someone else on the ballot , so you'll have like Phillips on the ballot and Marion Williamson , that would be it right .
So if you weren't gonna ? So that's why Ava clip nine here basically says it very clearly In some it'd be very difficult for any candidate to clinch a delicate majority in this scenario . It's just not gonna happen , okay . So you're not gonna get enough people , and so then it becomes okay .
So what happens which I think is much more likely if Biden were to bail March through June ? What happens then ? And let's just look at right here the period between March and June , when the majority of high profile state primary elections have already concluded , could be one of the most uncertain times for the front runner to withdraw from the race .
It'd be just about mathematically impossible for Biden or a Trump alternative to win the nomination at the ballot box Again . The whole thought process that the ballot box would be involved in this is gone . So then both parties will have to allocate the majority of their delegates to somebody else through the process here , and basically that's the convention process .
So this is where it starts to get interesting , because things get thrown up in the air . So Joe would have all the delegates , for example . He'd have all these delegates . These races will go , he'll be given the delegates going into the convention . Okay , so Joe'd have all the delegates , but he wouldn't be there to accept the nomination .
So then the thought process is okay , well , it would be Kamala Harris . That's not how the Democrats do it . It isn't President , vice President fused together , they're separate . So Kamala Harris has guaranteed nothing in this process if it goes down . So then you'd go to the convention and it would be up in the air , basically .
So , as you start heading through the convention , you then would have June through the . So basically , you're up in the air . You don't know who's got these ballots , you don't know what's happening here . Then all hell breaks loose at the convention .
Okay , so from June to the convention , what happens if a presumptive party nominee either dies with draws or becomes incapacitated ? Well , they said in June , when the whole thing is over , it's very clear that it's going to the convention , as in the first two situations .
The Republican convention which they mentioned in this article takes place in Milwaukee in the middle of July . So the Republicans will be done , sewn up and finished a month before the Democrats , which is a bit unusual . Ava , could you put that back up ? It's a bit unusual for them to be that much earlier .
But anyway , in this scenario it would become in a once in a lifetime political spectacle at the Democratic National Convention . Once the delegates have been bound to the presumptive nominee , they're officially uncommitted . That means they don't have to stick with Biden , purely . Biden is gone , and so therefore , then this becomes an absolute free-for-all .
So then you get into the thought process of history . And when is this sort of thing happened , right ? So when you start saying you're going into the nomination , the convention , with all the various delegates not being committed to anybody . So what happens ? Well , they're going to go in and there's about 4,627 delegates total in this thing .
You got to win them and to get on the ballot you got to have 30 , sorry , 300 delegates .
So then you start saying , ok , you're going to see people position , people like Newsom and Whitmer and everything else They'll get all their delegates , or the party tries to come behind and coalesce behind one and all walk out there , which works until someone else nominates someone else .
That's right , that's right , and they just kind of nominate there in the moment right .
Yeah Well , theoretically , theoretically , but they'll be so basically you got 4,600 party insiders that will be getting a million phone calls . They'll be trying to set that this will be a mini election because people try to whip their vote right . Absolutely . They'll whip their vote .
Weeks up into this convention , right yeah .
And theoretically I mean personally I think what would happen is they try to call it last as much as they could and get you know not have that spectacle .
But they'll have the spectacle .
Because you don't want to have that . And then you have some delegate rolling around the Lamborghini they find three weeks later . That's right .
Well , and that's the problem . So when's the last time this happened ? So you start saying , OK , all this , you know , goes crazy and blows up . So when's the last time this happened ? Well , the easiest kind of point to draw from is 1968 .
So that was a nightmare for them in Chicago .
So they go to the convention , and this is after RFK had been shot . Yeah Right , and so this was decided by the convention . Well , what happened during that time was an unbelievable amount of violence . It was a . It was , I mean , completely out of control .
And as you go back and look at the video , and for those of you on YouTube watching this , I mean this was a rough deal , and so when there's complete chaos , like there's likely to be in this situation , it could lead to this sort of thing , and I and hopefully it will not- like right in the inside of the convention . Well , there was some , yes .
Yes , not to this degree , but there's old video of Dan Rather being roughed up on the on the convention floor saying don't touch me , Don't grab me things , this thing completely spun out of control .
And even just sort of violence . Remember that whole super delegate issue and that thing blew up with Hillary and how and Dean and Sanders .
As far as there's a big progressive element of the Democratic Party that doesn't like that and they're not going to like this coalescing and they're not going to like party insiders doing it , and so you can see there could be a lot of political friction going on .
Yeah , so OK , so are we . Are we trying to guess , like who would go up ?
Yeah , so we'll do that in one second . So let's say , for example , biden gets through the convention and then so , then , then they pull this out . The reason I bring this up is because , with each passing step , fewer and fewer people get a voice . That's my point , right ?
So we're going to eliminate the voters the first time around , right , we'll get rid of them over the next .
They've actually eliminated them . Now They've eliminated them .
Now , you're exactly right . So then we get to the convention , where there are about 4600 insiders to get to decide . Let's say we get to the convention , they nominate Biden , and then Biden decides I can't do it . Now we're down to the Democratic National Committee deciding .
That's 483 members and those are insiders , those are elected , those are all sorts of people , those are the cream of the crop of the insiders get to decide and then they make the choice before they put the names on the ballot .
Ok , they get the choice , and so you're talking about electeds and all sorts of different people from the 56 states , territories and plus a couple of Democrats abroad . They would then get to make the choice .
So all we're doing over the next six to eight months is taking a number from the electorate down to 4600 , down to over 400 , and then they get to make the call .
And those 400 will probably be on the same page , right ? No , I mean you got to tell you that's a lot of playing this out is totally hypothetical , but they
¶ Michelle Obama's Potential Presidential Run
would try .
I would think you try to call a less behind somebody . If they don't think they can get that done at the convention , then they leave him on through the convention and they try to do it at the DNC . Just keep out , just keep her . This is a lot more complicated too . Then there's a lot of things that can go wrong for him .
One is they couldn't keep him from going out on stage the other night , so you're still got to convince him not to run .
Yeah , I think the biggest . I think he's the only one that's like I'm still in this . Him and his wife are like we're doing this and everybody else is like again they're trying to push him off the boat . I am convinced of that . So , there's no way . This is Joe on the ballot in November .
So you're saying , so what are you going with ? What's your prediction ?
I mean , I know this is crazy . I keep going back and forth on this , I keep reading all these different things . I really think it's going to be Michelle Obama I do . I think they're going to .
They're going to prop her up at the convention , or maybe it's the DNC thing and with only the 400 people that decide , I think that I know we've read and we've heard rumors and everybody has said she's not interested in this . She has been very clear . She does not want to do this , which I wouldn't blame her for that .
I mean , I'm thinking I watched my husband go through all this . I've got it made . Now why would I want to jump in the middle of this ? The thing that comes to me is she would feel empowered . She wouldn't have to run in a primary . She'd be handed this on a silver platter , her husband knows more about this job than she does and she'd be like whatever .
But I'm smarter than you , so I'll figure this out . There , a guy , you read her book . She definitely thinks she's smarter than him . So I just think , I think it's going to be her , and I think she's going to use this whole it cannot be Trump as the fear mongering , and I'm the only one that can save the day .
So I'm you're welcome , I'm stepping in here , I am , that's my , that's what I think is going to happen .
I agree .
I mean , I think , I think Michelle Obama is the most Jay . You and I are in the same page .
I think she's the most likely one . She's well regarded . If you looked at polling now , she'd be strong . But I mean that stuff changes very quickly , Right ? You know voters don't know much about her . You know they don't know a whole lot of you know , when you start learning more about her beliefs , I think she's going to have more issues .
But I absolutely think , because they cannot , it has to be an African-American woman , because they've they've wedded themselves to this identity politics with Kamala , yeah , and so you can't go roll her for Gavin .
I think it could be Michelle and Kamala as a double ticket Maybe . I don't know if they do it that way , but I here's the thing . I think they'll wait as long as possible to put her on there so she doesn't have to go through all this Q&A and this whatever . So think about like that .
I mean you've told me , we've all talked around the table many times it takes a long time for voters to get the message points that you want them to get Right . So if a lot of people if you're saying a lot of people don't really understand some of the you know conflicting , you know information about Michelle , ok , there will be enough time .
What they'll be what ?
45 days , maybe 60 days , before the election yeah , I can see them trying to limit it , but on a presidential race it's going to figure that stuff out .
Yeah , pretty quick , yeah , no , I think that I agree . I tend to think they'll wait as long as they possibly can to make the switch and because and I can see them looking at 1968 and going we can't go to the convention and do this Like this would be kind of a mess , let's get through the convention and then let's do it after that .
But but I also think this may be these things , I think , gather so much momentum on their own that predicting how it's going to go is really difficult .
It really is because you can , in trying to game , plan it like if you could sit here and they could plan it out how they'd like it to go . But they get humans involved , it gets messy .
It gets really messy .
I mean I will really low level . Example is when , when parties don't have a candidate running for , say , a state house seat or whatever , they'll go have someone submit petition signatures to get on the ballot and they'll say , OK , just , you're just holding a ballot position and we'll swap it out later with the candidate .
In multiple states I've seen multiple times they've done that with someone . They find a great candidate the guys , you know what , I think I'm great , yeah . And then get stuck with the guy with like 70 WI's that they didn't know , you know , because they thought he was going to be a placeholder in these states and I came in .
¶ Removing a President and Mayor's Spending
You're trying to push out a president in the United States . It's going to be a challenge and or getting Kamala to just back down right . You know you're her . If you're her , this is your one chance . Yeah , you're not going to go win a primary like this , so why would you ? You're just going to go quietly into that good night .
Oh , I don't think she's going quietly Well she's not .
But the point being in that , and the point I wanted to make on that , is that she's not . She's not titled to that and , by the way , just so you know , should Biden win or should Biden leave after the ballots are printed , ok , and they go through an election , she's not entitled to be president , by the way , she's .
The succession plan only matters after January right After January 20th or whatever it is . Whatever they're swearing . I mean , yeah , excuse me , after the inauguration . That's when it matters . She's not entitled to be president . They could win that election , by the way , and Biden steps aside . She's not entitled to that . So that's another thing .
So , so all of this , she's not bound to Biden . She really isn't . So that's why you're right , she's going to fight like crazy to hold on to that position , but she's going to have to fight some other people , because you know that's what we talk about all the time . This is the biggest job in the world .
If you think there's going to be some sort of strange coronation with anybody other than Michelle Obama , you're crazy Right .
I mean it's going to be a knife fight , ok , so what about having Kamala be ? The other ticket is as president , and then you bring in Michelle's , the .
VP . She'd never do it . Yeah , michelle , would do it you know , I OK .
I think she , I think you think Michelle thinks that Kamala's smarter than her . She doesn't think Barack is .
No , she's like oh no , I really got a lot of respect for the vice president , but I think she's going to play a game . I think this is the sad thing she doesn't have to play because Michelle has the power to .
she can sit back . There's no , you guys clear it . Yeah , If you guys clear it and do this , and that she can put it all on them .
Yeah , that's kind of true . I just can't believe that they can't come up with any candidate Like where's their bench ? You ?
know they don't have much of a bench .
I am kind of confused by that .
But no , whitmer is Whitmer's out there , Whitmer's out there . I don't know , we'll see what happens , but I agree with you guys , I think there's no ways . The nominee , but this just shows you anyone who tells you , oh , there's no way to get rid of them , that's not true , it's just not true and there absolutely is .
So , all right , a couple of quick things before we get out of here . Christy , you wanted to touch on one of the probably . America's mayor is what I'd like to call her , oh my gosh , I mean this lady is it's ?
fantastic . It's , it's , it's fantastic in the fact that you can't believe this is actually happening .
OK .
OK , they're calling her Super Mayor of Illinois .
Town , they should .
Who spends lavishly on flight stick houses while village faces debt slams critics attacking a black woman power , ok . So basically , the backstory is this is this woman ? She is a mayor , ok . What's her name ? Again , I'm trying to figure out her name .
Her name is Tiffany Hennard .
Hennard , and she is the mayor of Dalton Illinois . Yeah , and basically , this woman , this is unbelievable . She spends an in , first of all . Ok , first of all . Her salary is two hundred and eighty five thousand dollars a year . Ok , she's the mayor of twenty thousand people . Yeah , that's how big the town is , pretty solid salary .
It pretty solid right , ok , her town is in debt . Their budgets in debt by five million dollars . OK , OK she goes to Atlanta , new York and I can't remember one other city Austin , austin and spends between like eleven thousand and fifteen thousand just in hotels . Ok yeah she's , she's out there trying to build business for .
Oh , sixty seven thousand dollars she spent .
Yeah , for just for you guys , she's building business for Dalton . Well , yeah , I don't know if you guys know that . Now here's the kicker about this lady . She also has what I think eight to ten police officers escorting her for private security . Ok , because that's important in the town of twenty thousand people .
The mayor has a security detail .
Because in New York she's very controversial .
Yes .
Yeah , yeah , yeah . Well , we'll scroll up Ava and kind of zoom in on this picture because she looks good . She's been accused of wanting to be a reality star .
She looks like she's dialed in on the .
Yeah , she looks great , she cares about what she looks like for sure . And that's fine . Whatever about that ? This is the kicker for me . Ok , ok , her two hundred eighty five thousand dollar salary .
She is now passed into law , apparently , or some bill or something , that if , if anybody tries to run against her in the next election , the salary of the mayor drops by 90 percent , ok , but she's made in her in this same bill . If it's her that gets reelected , no change to salary , ok , she's also . She's so in debt , the town is so in debt .
Now she has asked officers to go out and give tickets for five hundred dollars that people have to pay the same day and if they don't pay it that day , they get an additional charge of one hundred bucks tacked under their ticket . So apparently this was so bad .
There was cars wrapped around the courthouse to make go and pay all these tickets in the single that they were given . Because she's trying to rebuild the coffers , I guess . And then you know , steak dinners . I think between like July and November she spent some like twenty three thousand dollars just in eating out Gosh .
I like this lady , I mean this is the kind of thing , how ? And then OK , somebody asked me this about this mayor and I didn't know the answer Can , like city council voter out ? Who knows what they're I mean ? Yeah , you don't have to rule .
So what the recall provisions are . But they probably know it's like here . It's very difficult to recall our mayor , to recall someone I mean I don't know some of these municipalities , but for the most part I mean office holders . It's difficult in places .
And then somebody else asked me if the governor of the state of Illinois could have any power over this lady , and I said , well , probably some state funding , but I don't know .
Well , I would I mean you would imagine some authority somewhere and we start getting real interested in how they're spending money on stuff .
Right . I mean that's the thing she's got to watch out for . She's going to end up on the wrong side of the federal investigation .
The press , to their credit in this little tiny town , have done the remind me of how you call it .
It's the Impr right In front of you where you asked for Ipra yeah .
Ipra . Ok , so you asked for all these documents of how she spent . They wanted the credit card bills for the mayor's office , and it's terrible yeah .
Well , no , she's staying in the four seasons . I mean , give me an idea , like you should a fly coach .
No , she's my first class . I understand I get the first class mayor from a town of 20,000 people Right and then she's staying in the four seasons in New York .
I mean that's craziness .
Yeah , anyway , I thought this was a new one for you , jay .
I thought this could shock you a little bit , but I think her having the guts to say listen , if I lose this election , we're cutting the salary of the Joker who beats me Exactly , but if I get reelected ?
if I get reelected , it's staying in the business Plus 10 percent .
Oh my , yeah , exactly . Romo costs a living .
She's got to keep up with that $300,000 salary . Ok , one more . I see this is fantastic too . We've got a lady who gets busted Video of the day . A lady gets busted for cocaine , but she's got a significant excuse , and one that I think is legitimate . Oh yeah , so here's a new story on this .
Officers say Kanisha Posey was one of two passengers in a car stop for driving a rannick in Fort Pierce . They say the car smelled of marijuana . In a search turned up cocaine and marijuana inside a purse Posey had on her lap . When asked how the substances got there , posey told police quote I don't know anything about any cocaine , it's a windy day .
It must have flown through the window and into my purse . She's charged with a felony cocaine possession .
OK , the cocaine . She didn't notice that . She didn't say the marijuana flew in .
No .
I'm sorry , that's just a smear , it's just the cocaine that flew in . I mean , she had Joe Biden staff prepping her .
Yeah , I didn't have that ready prep for that question and I had to go with something .
I think it's brilliant . If I'm the judge , I'm like you know what , ok , all right , I like what you're doing here . Ok , so thanks for joining us . We appreciate it . Well , we'll see .
I know there's just I mean , what's he going to do this week ? I can't wait . Well , that's what are they ?
going to do to him . You see , that's the problem .
They're losing control .
Yeah , that's a big thing . It's not . What he's going to do is what's going to happen to him , and that's how you know he's losing control .
Are they going to put him back out on a press conference this week ?
I mean , I can't imagine .
You have to manage it , but what is he capable of doing you ?
can't clearly not much yeah .
Well , so the case you've always made . When you can't make the case for your own reelection , it puts you in a horrendous position . Right , because you're your , your , your your own best advocate . And without being able to do that , you have very few options , and this is only going to get worse . We're nine months from the election .
This is going to be the longest election in history , and that's .
One thing we didn't talk about is how exhausting that campaign is going to be for him , and it'll be worse , like the eight o'clock at night is going to be a lot worse .
Yeah , yeah , and then can you ? Can you go out there ? Can you go and can you do any events ? Can you do anything ? Because I think that the only solution is going to be less of him , more of more of his surrogates . There's no other way to do it . And can you even do a one on one interview anymore ?
When's the last time you saw a one on one interview ?
Are you down ? Well , they're going to start putting Cabala out there , I mean that's how they are .
They are , yeah , yeah , that's who you have to .
They want to make it all about Trump . The problem is he's made it . It's now a choice . It's hard for them to try to make it just to referendum on Trump At this point .
Yeah , that's true . Ok , well , we'll obviously have more on this . This is not a story that's going away anytime soon .
No , and I do . I think we're headed for a historic election . We just don't know in what way it's going to be historic . All right , we'll see you back here on Thursday .
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