¶ Debate Analysis
You and I are told increasingly we have to choose between a left or right . Well , I'd like to suggest there is no such thing as a left or right . There's only an up or down . This is the no Doubt About it . Podcast .
No doubt about it .
Now your hosts , Christy and Mark Runcetti . Wildfire , you can't catch us now Running , running , running .
and Mark Runcetti Okay , for anyone who loves a good debate performance boy . That was it . Holy cow , oh yeah .
It was a great debate tonight .
I mean , goodness Boy , let's Jay McCleskey joining us Rapid reaction . It won't be a long episode , but it'll be a good one . Goodness Boy , Jay McCleskey joining us Rapid reaction . It won't be a long episode , but it'll be a good one . And I want to just get you guys get your reaction over what you saw tonight , and then we'll get into some of the details .
Christy , Well , Scout wants to go first , yeah apparently yeah she's very fired up . No , I thought it was great . I mean , I knew it was going to be good . I knew it was going to be good . I knew it was going to be better than the presidential debate . Everybody was expecting Vance to perform well . I think that's an understatement .
I think he was such a smooth guy . His delivery was so on point . I'm like every kid that wants to take a debate should be watching what this guy does , whether you even agree with him or not .
He was excellent at getting the message out and being very clear and staying calm and I think actually Walt came off pretty nervous , especially at the beginning incredibly nervous guy and really couldn't land a plane on a lot of the questions .
Yeah , yeah , I mean , the Democrats spent all week , last week or 10 days trying to lower expectations for Walt .
For good reason they could not lower him enough . Right .
Because he was really bad and I thought Vance was great . I thought he was the hillbilly elegy guy on this . I mean he really came across . He did a really good job . Demeanor-wise , I thought of and then answers he was just on substance , he just crushes him . It's not really fair on that , but I thought Vance did a very good job .
I thought Walt , and that answer we'll probably get into this . Like the answer the Tiananmen Square thing .
That's a rough one . I was riding my bike in Nebraska Like what does that have to do with it ?
Oh ?
yeah .
Yeah .
I thought he just did a great job in prosecuting the case against Walls and against the moderators , because I actually think these moderators are worse than any of the other ones before .
I mean some of the stuff .
Trying to fact check was insane .
Well before , I mean , some of the stuff trying to fact check was insane . Well , they did . So what they tried to do is they tried to say , first of all , we're not going to fact check . And then they slid in and started to do these little fact checks and we'll have that in a second , because it started with Nora O'Donnell . She's the one who started it .
They tried to just punch in a line at the end of an answer . Oh , by the way , it's been settled and climate change has been determined to be devastating . Anyway , let's move on .
You know you're like wait a minute .
What are you talking about , right ? And so I think , when you look broadly at this , a couple things struck me right away . First and foremost , tim Walz . There's no question he was unbelievably nervous and it's a hard stage , right , and there's no doubt it's a difficult thing . But right when you saw him come out , he had trouble picking out his thoughts .
He was halting , he'd get to a point and he'd it's what I call a verbal cul-de-sac , right . You get to the point . You just have nowhere to go , right . And so you kind of go back up again and try to regenerate what you're doing . And when you have Vance on the other side , that is super smooth .
And actually what made Vance most effective was he wasn't trying to be a jerk , right . So this did not turn into , that's right . It didn't turn into a fight . If it had turned into a fight , waltz would have calmed down , right .
But because he never turned it into a fight , waltz was constantly taking a test and he didn't have the answers , and so after a while you just got to the point where you're like my goodness , so he kills him with kindness and then buries him on policy , but doesn't do it in a way that allows waltz to turn this into a bit of a bar fight , and I think
that was a problem I think I think that's a very smart take .
And it's true because if you look at the beginning , when waltz was , he was trying to do what he was prepped to do , which is talk about harris , talk about trump and kind of make that . At the end of it , he talked way more about Minnesota and everything they were doing there than he ever did , which no one cares about .
Right , because he's and that's because I think he got nervous , gets an insult when generally what happens in Canada ? They're going to revert back to what they know , and so he reverts back to talking about something that's not landing with the voters and I think it was also interesting just even the few minutes that we got to watch of the after show .
Basically , we were watching CNN really trying to cover for poor Tim because you know they're really , they're saying , well , he just hasn't had the experience of all the interviews lately that , uh , that JD does and we're like um , I'm sorry , you've been a governor for eight years , you were a Congressman for what ? 20 ?
before that he's the one refusing to do the interviews . Well , that's right and I always have believed .
from the very beginning , they've been hurt by this , because they turn these debates into an event or whatever it is . Whenever they finally talk , they elevate it . They elevate it because they don't talk enough . You see JD Vance doing 10 interviews a week , and he'll go at it with you back and forth . Now you know why , though ? Because he's effective at it .
He's really good at addressing those issues and he's good at fighting in a way that distills it down . He doesn't get emotional when he fights , he gets tactical , and I think he's really effective at it .
Yeah , I think the point tonight was to see those and again , I don't know the margin of those undecided voters that are out there still .
But I think that the whole point of this was hey , let's keep things calm , let's try to get the attention of the undecided voters here , let's show them that we're rational , that a lot of things are misconceptions that are out there . Let's show you the real plan and let's talk about and stay on message which Trump sometimes has a hard time doing himself .
Oh , this is a whole . I don't know if I've ever seen someone more clear eyed and focused on the issues and directing the conversation where you want it to go . Did they ask a border question ? I don't think they did , but he sure talked about it , Right they're talking about mass deportations .
They tried to pick .
Right . So everything they framed was it was an ugly frame , there's no doubt , and we'll get into some of that too . In the last half of the debate , the questions were like come on , I mean , you really have a lot of major issues in this country , and not that anything they brought up isn't an issue , but it is not the forefront of of the issue .
The second question is climate change , yeah , which , by the way , I thought vance handled brilliantly . Yeah , great answer in fact that little fake fact check she did . At the end it didn't land because Vance didn't go that direction .
It was like they were prepared for that , so they had that in their script to say that and he'd gone a totally different way , which was really smart .
And it was . It's the best way to do it . I remember when we were in the I'm trying to think it was the Senate race where that was our . That was exactly our line in the Senate race , which was if you'd like to get the oil and gas from Russia , you're looking at 30% more in the way of CO2 output than we do here .
No one does it more cleanly and efficiently than we do , so that's why , when you send it to Venezuela and Russia , don't tell me you care about the environment . And that's exactly what he did , and it's a great way to go .
It's absolutely great , Right , he and he's like . Well , the components are .
And you know , I mean he just well , that's why China went into Afghanistan , which is a whole different issue . But get their hands on , get those minerals , no , okay .
So all right , I want to start here . Well , first of all , this is one of the's go just like throw in the damn towel , because it was . It was ugly quick . But let's get to the . I want to start with you the Noro Donald fact check on climate . First , because I want to use this as an example of why Vance didn't go after on this .
But it only took a second time for them to do it before Vance said okay , we're going to dance . So here's the fact check from Nora O'Donnell after JD Vance finishes talking about hey look , energy is the key . If you really want to look at reducing CO2 , produce more energy in the US and you'll do that .
Governor , your time
¶ Media Bias in Debate Analysis
is up . The overwhelming consensus among scientists is that the Earth's climate is warming at an unprecedented rate . First of all , that's wrong .
By the way , she's wrong . It is not warming at an unprecedented rate . That's actually not true . Ok , if you , if you want to know what precedent goes back a long time on this planet and you're actually wrong on that . But so JD Vance , you know , finishes his climate change . She sticks in a quick little rabbit punch .
Right , and what was funny to me about it is Vance didn't even go down that road Like cause he . The way he answered it . He wasn't arguing any of that ?
Yeah , he wasn't saying it's not happening . They had that planned .
They were going to hit him with it . He answered a different way and they still threw it out there and it just . That was the first one , and then the I mean the second one was worse and it was just this continuing yeah , again , I think they for kind of forgot about what their job is and they're forgetting that .
You know , half the people that were listening tonight are fans of vance , and so they just kept like .
But that's not who they talk , but here's the problem , these reporters , they talk to the elites . That's right on twitter on x it really is and they get bullied and so that , and so that's they're , that's who they're talking to . You heard her ask the question about well , I guess I mean our poll says and people favor deportation . I'm shocked at this .
She's like shocked at it .
She makes millions of dollars , does not live in communities that are dealing with this , on the border or otherwise , so they're so insulated they don't have any of these problems . It's the Stephanie rule issue we talked about before .
Stephanie rule is doing and having interviews with kamala harris and not pushing her for real answers , and she actually says I don't think she should have to answer real questions . Well , of course , stephanie rule thinks that she makes five million dollars a year .
She doesn't care who the president is , she's still going to be rich and think of this climate change question started with .
Well , donald trump says blah blah , which they asked a bunch of those questions . What one question was ? Kamala Harris previously said blah blah , blah , blah . Not once , not once Not once and we know all those things he pressed walls on .
They also noticed spoon fed Tim the answer , like what he had said . So let's say , like Vance gave a pretty long answer . Maybe you know know , it's two minutes answer . Then they were like , well , would you like to respond to that ? Uh , governor , about that , like they would recap what he had just said . But , and I think that's spoon-feeding .
That's up to the .
I'm sorry , but if you're debating somebody , here's what I'd say . This too , like one of them , was really stupid , like the whole the issue about , well , what are you gonna do about pre-existing conditions ? He never said they were gonna take him . Them away .
No one said that . Nobody said that . Nobody is like she's saying that it's like .
Do you not understand what the lies like ? What ?
does he say you can't do that now already , okay , so so then here we go . So you had that one , and I heard when , admitted I heard the O'Donnell fact check . It was about three minutes later , it wasn't long . And so here comes JD Vance , not going to put up with the fact check .
Thank you , Senator . We have so much to get to .
I think it's important because we're going to turn out of the economy . Margaret , the rules were that you guys were going to fact check and since you're fact checking me , I think it's important to say what's actually going on .
So there's an application called the CBP One app where you can go on as an illegal migrant , apply for asylum or apply for parole and be granted legal status . At the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand , that is not a person coming in applying for a green card and waiting for 10 years .
That is the facilitation of illegal immigration , Margaret , by our own leadership .
Thank you , Senator , for describing the legal process .
We have so much to get through . Senator .
Okay , yeah , and it all started with her trying to say the Haitians were illegal and that's just false . Yeah , that is absolutely false .
Right ? No , there's no doubt . And so you saw that and it kind of backed down . After that . They didn't pull that routine again , which is exactly what you would have wanted anyone in that situation to do . That , if you're getting an on the fly fact check , that is not really a fact check .
The problem is that as you watch this , you realize JD Vance is so much more accomplished than all three of them put together , right , so that is that's just a fact . In that situation . I mean , he's just much better on the policy and on the issues .
This also highlights how the Democrats are very effective at getting these reporters to buy just these talking points . Hook , line and sinker , like trying to claim that that's legal because they filled out the CPP1 app before they showed up at the border crossing illegally .
And their fact-checking on a debate stage is pretty incredible and I just think the ability like we cut your mics , like the arrogance from the anchors saying , well , we cut your mics , we can't hear you anymore and it's like you're done , like , instead of handling that in a professional manner . That's a huge deal right now .
It's one of the things that people care about the most is how are we handling immigration ? How are we going to handle deportation ?
Well , no , that's an issue they don't want to spend a lot of time on .
They are like no , no , no , no , no , we're done . We're done talking about it .
We're done talking about it . And also did you hear the disdain in her voice after Vance's ?
answer .
Which was thank you for educating us .
Yes , very condescending .
I mean Because they don't understand the issue . Yeah , no , no , very true . Okay , I want to get to something broader here about Vance , which it's something that I've never been . Necessarily .
I don't always fall on the same side of him on this , so it was interesting to me and this sort of the America first protectionist wing that he comes from , because he really very much is somebody who is trying to protect the economy and the respect that tariffs and things like that and make things in America which I think a lot of people agree with .
But how far does that go ? I thought he did a good job tonight explaining that Because Wall Street said listen , you've got to listen to the experts , right , you've got to listen to the experts . And he jumped on that . It was very , very quick and this is something I think he jumped on it so well because it's ingrained in who he is .
This is exactly who JD Vance is and I want you to listen to this answer
¶ Rethinking Manufacturing and National Security
about America . First , you say trust the experts .
But those same experts for 40 years said that if we shipped our manufacturing base off to China , we'd get cheaper goods . They lied about that . They said if we cheap shipped our industrial base off to other countries , to Mexico and elsewhere , it would make the middle class stronger . They were wrong about that .
They were wrong about the idea that if we made America less self-reliant , less productive in our own nation , that it would somehow make us better off . And they were wrong about it . And for the first time in a generation , donald Trump had the wisdom and the courage to say to that bipartisan consensus we're not doing it anymore .
That is . It's a really powerful message and it's a message that a lot of Democrats have lived . You know , you saw that a lot . A lot of union Democrats think that way . So you're starting to see a blur of the line , it seems .
It's really and it explains helps explain why Trump has been able to win over working class white voters in Ohio , which is no longer a swing state and able to compete in states like Michigan and Wisconsin , and it's because of this issue .
And do you think we're looking at that long term that this is going to be ? Are we headed into a protectionist generation where we have to be protectionists to make more here , make more drugs here , make more cars here , make everything here ? Manufacturing base needs to expand again , and did COVID teach us that message ? And is now that message really ripe for ?
a huge area of the country . I think it's a lot stronger now , personally because of China . This is our biggest adversary , and why would we allow them to control all of our prescriptions , all of our manufacturing , when they can just shut that off ? Go ask Germany what happens when you give Russia control of all your energy .
Well , exactly , and I think that JD Vance did bring that up he said you know , why are we letting these foreign , basically our enemies make our prescriptions that we're giving to our kids ? Like , why are we putting this much trust in them ? And I mean , we've talked about this a little bit , but we do need to be wising up a little bit .
I mean , we saw with the beepers in Israel and how they took those guys out with their beepers .
Be careful how much we're bringing in , technology-wise , from other countries that don't like us right and it becomes a thing Well , yeah , you can produce it cheaper over there , but at what cost ?
Yeah , I mean , that's really the that's right like yeah , maybe it's worth it , you know , to pay a little more to have it produced here for national security , for our economic um security , and that gets into rare earths too , because we can .
We can produce them here , but we choose not to right now . We need to . I I didn't think it's interesting because it's taking the old political groups and it's jumbling them up Like if you're an old-style Democrat , you love what he says right there , right , I mean , I've always said this for a long time .
If you really look at where Trump has taken the Republican Party it's like oh he's crazy . No , it's really not he's moved it more to the left because of this issue , these issues like this .
If you look at the democratic party , they've fallen off the left side of the earth and you can objectively look at the issues right and understand that and it's it's interesting and it gives , I think , trump a lot of credibility to be able to say that he stood up to both parties in order to do it and you can see that in some I mean , there are plenty of
republicans .
Now we're lined up against trump for that reason , right , so there's no doubt . Okay , another one here . One thing we've said on this show . We've talked to you about it a bunch . I think what Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are trying to do is impossible . Right , they're trying to serve two masters on every issue Israel . They're trying to serve two masters .
They're trying to serve two masters on the border . They're constantly trying to split things down the middle and it's impossible to do . And finally , vance told Walsh to his face tonight you have a very tough job , my friend .
Honestly , tim , I think you got a tough job here , because you've got to play whack-a-mole . You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver rising take-home pay , which of course he did . You've got to pretend that Donald Trump didn't deliver lower inflation , which of course he did .
And then you simultaneously got to defend Kamala Harris's atrocious economic record , which has made gas , groceries and housing unaffordable for American citizens . I was raised by a woman who would sometimes go into medical debt so that she could put food on the table in our household .
I know what it's like to not be able to afford the things that you need to afford . We can do so much better To all of you watching no-transcript .
Yeah , just bringing on the whole whack-a-mole thing , I thought was really it was funny , it was witty , it drew a picture for people You're trying to play both sides , I don't know . I just thought it was like the first line that he said that I was like , oh , I mean , I thought it was brilliant , I loved it actually .
I think that sums up the whole . Like the big issue is for voters and voters get this is like , well , it was better under trump , you know , like they understand that . And and kamala harris trying to avoid her record so much . I think vance drove that tonight and I think that's people understand it . I've seen it in groups where they talk about it .
They get that at a level and I think he nailed it right there and it becomes really difficult for any of them to explain why aren't you talking about your record ?
yep , and he said multiple times . She has been vice president for three and a half years and it is the most damning thing you can say .
And he named how many days she's been in . He's like she keeps talking about day one , Day one . It's day 1400 . If she wanted to do something , I encourage her to do it now , while she has the power , and she's not doing it . So , instead of using as a campaign initiative , why don't you go and actually enact it ? And I think that's you .
You can't call somebody more blatantly than that way . So Okay .
So one thing you've always said we've talked about things the most damaging political hits are the ones that reinforce your own weakness , the ones that get voters to go . Oh yeah , he is a problem with that , right ? Well , that happened tonight on the Tiananmen Square issue for Waltz . So he was asked about Tiananmen Square .
So let me , let me just give you a quick breakdown on this . There was some I think it was NPR in Minnesota did some uncovering of stuff where Tim Waltz has been saying he was in China when Tiananmen Square went down . Okay , he was there , saw it all go down . No , he wasn't . He was not there . Okay , he was there in the general .
Remind everybody what was going on there Like tanks running Like literally rolling over people . You would not forget if you were there .
Right , like it was rough , like you still .
You don't lie about that .
No , yeah , and the video is still burning your head . The guy standing there , and yeah , so . So so they asked him about it tonight . This is the one kind of tough one time to ask him about a previous statement , that's right no-transcript but I'm not perfect and I'm a knucklehead at times , but it's always been about that .
Those same people elected me to Congress for 12 years and in Congress , I was one of the most bipartisan people , working on things like farm bills that we got done , working on veterans benefits , and then the people of Minnesota were able to elect me to governor twice .
So , look , my commitment has been from the beginning to make sure that I'm there for the people , to make sure that I get this right . I will say more than anything . Many times I will talk a lot , I will get caught up in the rhetoric , but , being there , the impact it made , the difference it made . In my life I learned a lot about China .
I hear the critiques of this . I would make the case that Donald Trump should have come on one of those trips with us . I guarantee you he wouldn't be praising Xi Jinping about COVID and I guarantee you he wouldn't start a trade war that he ends up losing . So this is about trying to understand the world .
It's about trying to do the best you can for your community , and then putting yourself out there and letting your folks understand what it is my commitment , whether it be through .
Okay , so he doesn't . He doesn't answer it , right , he just kind of goes through some stuff and so at some point I guess you know the , the moderators finally- oh , they come back on him and say you know , but can you clarify ?
you know when you said that you were in tenement square and and you were not . You know , basically .
And so here's , here's how this one shook out those are the things that I think are the values that people care about governor , just to follow up on that .
The question was can you explain the ?
discrepancy . All I said on this was is I got there that summer and misspoke on this , so I will just that's not what you said . Yeah , I just misspoke . So I was in Hong Kong and China during the democracy protest , went in and from that I learned a lot of what needed to be in governance , what Okay , so , okay so .
And I want to read this tweet because I thought it was so funny . I don't even know who this person is , but he said Walt's answer about why he lied about China is the worst answer I've ever heard in a debate .
And I'm just like , and it was such an odd .
You know , know , they prepped for that . Oh , it was so . He was so uncomfortable , I don't . All he had to say was I misspoke .
I apologize . Yeah , I mean I forgot that I wasn't there and just move on .
You can't go into this whole side like no , you can't do that no yeah , exactly right , and he should have done at the beginning right at the beginning of the answer just say I misspoke and and and my timing got . I do apologize for that , but here's what's important , right ? That's all you have to do , I know . So you watch it . You just kind of go wow .
Yeah , he was a train wreck .
I think it's tough , and so I want to do one more
¶ Analyzing Political Debate Impact
now . There are a bunch of people jumping all over this .
I think he just had a mistake here .
This is just . It's unfair when people jump on stuff like this .
So you're going to go ahead and show it .
Become friends with school shooters . I've seen it . Look the NRA . I was the NRA guy for a long time .
So it's tough deals , right . So , overall , let's talk about the broader state of the race here . Does this make any difference ?
Yes , I think it does , and you may disagree . The reason I think it makes a difference and I didn't mean to jump in on you , jay , but I won't get a word in with you two on this if I don't jump in right now . It's a fair point , but I think it does make a difference .
Only because we don't hear enough from Harris and you don't see Tim Waltz out there very much giving any interviews . So I think more people are trying to tune in just to see . I mean , I'll be curious what the numbers are , but we want to hear what the like , what is the side saying about policy ? What are they saying about deportation ?
What are they going to do about the border ? What are they doing about the economy ? Like they want real answers . The people , especially the undecideds , right ?
So I think absolutely , and I think a clue as to why I think this matters is because the second CNN this is over CNN is saying how much this doesn't matter , right , because they want this , they want to push this under the rug . Oh no , I don't think it's going to have any impact at all . I mean , that was like the answer that they gave .
And and I just think if you see CNN that fast saying how this is just not going to matter , then I'm like , eh , that's kind of a sign that you guys probably know how many people were actually watching tonight .
Well , they don't know , but we'll find out tomorrow We'll get a good idea , I think .
Vance really helped himself on his image a lot . I don't think that matters a whole lot .
I think what matters is is Vance really effectively made the case for Trump in a way that was really strong and those watching it was very convincing how he laid out that messaging and I think that matters , because that is the that is the first time they're hearing that so , so forcefully prosecuted .
Well , yeah , and I also think at this point in the race we're down to small numbers of people that you have to convince in some select States and I think you get very few opportunities . My guess is the audience on this is 30 million .
Okay , that's a guess , but , and let's say that's 10% of the you know , or 20% of the voting public , for example , may have watched this , okay , and at least seen some of it . I do think there are fewer and fewer of those times when you get a really big audience and I think you'll have a decent size audience and I think he did a really good job .
The Braves game wasn't on tonight . It might have been a bigger audience , right ? Well ?
and I think anybody watching the Braves game is probably not the demo that you're going for on this one , but I do think it's somewhat important . But the only reason I think it's important ? I think you're right . I think that the lack of exposure does usually lead to making these events bigger than they would ordinarily be .
Vice presidential debates are never going to be a dispositive decider of an election , ever right . But I do think it was a good night for , I think , swing states , the blue wall .
It was a good night in the blue wall because the way he speaks and the way he talks about america first , I think really resonates in michigan I think it does , and you gotta look .
I mean it's pretty clear . Vance was working hard to get swing women you know he's working really hard to and and Wallace was there supposed to be getting men for Harrison ? I don't see how he did any of that . I don't think he did any of that . And I thought Vance was very effective . I thought his abortion answer was very effective .
I agree .
And so I think but again I go back to he just made the case very convincingly like it is a strong , it is a strong . Yeah , I do want to say one quick thing here . I would kill to have that case .
I mean really if you look at major issues like we basically went on all but like one . Yeah , you know , like if there's no like oh , how we're gonna explain .
Yeah , how are we gonna get ? Oh , good luck tiptoeing out of that and most of the time in elections .
It's not like this right . It's clear Like we should crush them on the economy , on inflation , on the foreign policy .
Crime we didn't even touch crime tonight we didn't even get to crime . I mean yeah .
And crime on all those issues .
Yeah , Well and even like I'm sorry , but even like some of the policies that Waltz has put in place in Minnesota against parents that you know , when it comes up with the trans rights . The transgender situation like that wasn't even asked tonight and that's a major hot button topic for a lot of voters .
Here's what I'll say too , going back real quick to the whole Tiananmen Square thing was .
I thought Vance was very smart in not piling on yeah , because he made it so , because it was so obvious , yes .
And at that point you don't want to beat up the old man , Like I thought he was .
Well , he kind of had a smirk , though Did you watch ?
He smirked but he did not with a smile .
Yeah , he was kind of smiling Like oh , he's stepping in it .
He did not just pile on call the liar .
And I thought that was the like I'm . I'm reasonable , I'm here on the reasonable part , part of this Like let's I stay calm , we can have a grown up conversation without getting so heated and so angry . I do think they both did a good job of that tonight , trying to show that they were very polite with each other and making you know .
When Walt said his son witnessed a shooting , you know JD Vance is saying I'm really sorry to hear that your son experienced that . I think they were very cordial with each other .
I feel like we used to be like that , but it played much , oh much better because I mean it was kind of a trap , because I mean absolutely wanting to get into this fight he wanted to scrap and he never gave him the ability to it's like was kicking the crap out right in a way that was waltz didn't understand what was happening to him yeah , well , that's so
.
That's why you're like , oh like , literally it is like losing a debate to eddie haskell , and you're the only one who knows that it's Eddie Haskell because you're like oh , my God everybody thinks he's such a great guy . It's Eddie Haskell . You know like so I it is . It was very well done in that respect , and walls did walk right into it .
Well , and Ava was funny because you could see , you know , especially at the beginning , like he was kind of getting hit . You know , it kind of felt like he was just getting hit by Vance Vance Right , and he's like you almost see his face , where they're like OK , would you like to respond to that governor ?
And the governor's like , oh , like , and he was like , are you noticing he's changing color , like the blood is draining out of his face and he's turning white and I'm like that's quite a beginning to advance , destroyed him on the Iran issue which is again is a very clear .
That's again yeah , oh , my god , I mean literally you , you are . You are taking sanctions off of iran , giving them money , allowing them to fund their proxies , and the result has been a war with israel . Okay , that's not great . So what did trump do ?
Oh well , trump blew up sulamani , pulled all the money back from him , pulled back their ability to support their , their terrorist neighbors across the middle east . It's such a clear thing .
You just whack them with it , yeah , and so Vance sits him on that and he's like I gotta go . I gotta go . Let's talk Minnesota .
Let's talk about how I grew up in Nebraska . We're talking about my housing project .
That's not how it's going All right . Ava , did you have a ? You have some thoughts on this .
I do have some thoughts
¶ Debate Analysis and Candidate Strategy
on this . I agree with you guys . I think Vance managed to come across as like both very he could answer the question that was being asked of him and also answer other questions which I've noticed a lot of debaters cannot do . I noticed that when we watched the Republican primary .
I noticed it in the past debate we had , where they would get a question and they'd be like well , actually I want to talk about how she just said that I'm fat and ugly and we're going to talk about that for two minutes , right , and they don't actually answer the question that the moderator is asking .
But what I noticed about Vance was he was very eloquently able to like basically— Just destroy walls is answer and all of his facts and still answer the question . And he was . I heard somebody on CNN say it was almost like he was overprepared , which I thought was you mean waltz ? Waltz was over .
Yeah , that's what they were talking about . Yeah , no , I know .
But I like I don't know , I just think he was . I think he did a really good job of being able to both answer the question and provide new information , which was very refreshing to hear as somebody who's been watching debates for so long . And it's just a constant barrage of like no , you're stupid , no , you're stupid , and that's it .
So I just thought it was very , very well done and very eloquent .
I think that's a really good point because I think a lot of candidates you're told stay on message and you want to stay on message , but when you just don't answer the question , that really annoys voters .
what Ava's talking about , that is something and and Vance did it really well where he answer addressed the question but also was able to stay on the message or he'll flip it too , which is another skill , which is I will get to the answer on your question in just a second .
But I do want to tell you that and then you go back and answer it , because by answering it , no matter what you think of the question , it there's a certain respect to the moderator .
that goes with it To the moderator and the voters . That's why what Ava says you hear that a lot in- groups . They get annoyed by that .
Okay , so where now do you think the race is ? Where do you think this is ?
I think it's advantage Trump , I think it's really really close , yeah , and it's going to come down . It's crazy Like the small numbers it's going to come down to , but I think I think he has the momentum and it's just like sports to me is just . Campaigns are the same way . We really Trump lost momentum right out when they switched out , put Harrison there .
The Vance rollout wasn't as good as it could have been and then they put Harrison there and then I think she started giving it back when she picked Walls instead of Shapiro .
Yeah , that makes no sense Do you think that tonight oh it would have been totally different Tonight . They're like where ?
is .
Josh , you would have had a battle royale .
I mean you think Pennsylvania will be down 10 , 15 , 20,000 votes maybe . Maybe , less , yeah , and if Shapiro was on the ticket ?
that's a problem .
You lose that .
And how do we get once that happens ?
Yeah , I'm still confused on Waltz and what kind of votes that she thought he was going to get her .
Well , here's an interesting point too that someone made on . Bill Ackman made it on tour . He's a hedge fund guy . He said you can tell a lot about a leader and who they pick to surround themselves with , and whether it be your number one person in a campaign . Like do you do you hire ? You know the best do you hire right or or or .
Do you hire somebody that ?
that everybody will agree is a nicer person , or what ? Now , they're not nice . You know what I'm talking about .
He's , he's not a nice person . No , no , no , no , no . But but you know what I'm saying ? Like there's that world , or you're a ceo and you're bringing in your a cfo , which isn't . There's absolute nails , right , you know he's excellent , you know he's probably smarter than you . That's okay , because you need him .
Like do you bring in derrick henry or do you keep ezekiel elliott ?
right , right , you definitely keep ezekiel elliott . But then you get into . But this choice , it's crystal clear on that right .
So trump picks jd vance and now we know why I I mean you know again , I'm not I don't always fall politically where JD Vance does on all these issues , but it's hard to make a case that he's not excellent at drawing that contrast and being a great carrier of a message .
Then you go and look what Kamala Harris did by picking Tim Walz close and doesn't get you anything when you pick him , and VP choices are always dicey anyway . But it definitely leads you and shows you some of what her leadership when you had .
It'd be like if Trump had a really strong Republican governor in Pennsylvania yeah , you know and someone else . No , thanks you know like she had that . That's really a problem for us if she would have .
Shapiro yeah , absolutely .
Well , this is kind of a sidebar question , but just kind of one of the rumblings I'm hearing in the media this week is really how they're handling Hurricane Helene and going and helping the folks there or not helping the folks . Joe Biden's still been on the beach somewhere . He has not gone down there , as far as I know .
If you recall which I'm sure you do when Bush I don't recall that . Remember I know if you recall , which I'm sure you do when Bush , I don't recall it Remember when Bush , like , flew over uh , he flew over um Katrina , the photo of him looking out the window he's so , he's so detached .
And she .
Kamala threw a fundraiser , I believe last last night in California . She was in California , yeah , and then she was on the plane and she took a picture and that's what she posts , whatever , do you think ? I mean , I guess I'm watching . I remember that Bush just got destroyed over that .
It was like kind of a moment in his , in his you know him in office that he never really outlived that , but like he was too big , too big of the backstory there is he had comm staff , White House comm staffs getting married in Europe .
All those people are out there , so you didn't have . So that's where you get some bad decisions coming out . We'll just fly over and look at it and not even jumping on it right away , cause that's a whole different thing .
For Harris , I thought , cause that was a devastating moment for Bush and it did flip a lot of things , and for her to take that picture in Air Force Two that was very similar to Bush looking out the window .
it was bizarre to me and I also think it'll have an impact , I think , in a different way . I think in Florida , DeSantis does a really good job with these things right , and so that's a state , I think , that's still pretty solidly Republican . Your big issue right now is North Carolina right .
And you have a Democrat governor and you have a situation where you have a Democrat that's president , and so the president is on the beach . Well , yeah , and it's right . So how much you hook Biden up to Harris and you probably do so in that state I think that could end up having a having an impact .
Well , I just think it's . It's unbelievable that , like that , they're saying that's one of the worst storms , right , that we've seen in a long time yeah , no , it's awful the fact that they destroyed bush over this one thing .
Well , it's not even bush go back to the 2012 campaign with obama yep , and you had the hurricane christy and people still don't forgive christy for that right , but it had a big impact because , all of a sudden , obama looked like a leader , looked bipartisan showing up and giving aid and being there for the state , who desperately needed him .
And Cooper would have done that for Kamala if she wanted to show up , or would have done it for Biden if he wanted to show up . So that's what I'm saying In the state of North Carolina . You're talking about the media differential in coverage , right ? Well , that's never going to be equal , right ?
It's just never gonna be goal , however on the ground in that one individual state . They know the score and and that could end up being a factor , but you also have the issue too with what's going on with with the republican governor candidate , who's completely imploded . So that's a problem too for for trump . So that state's going to be .
That's a big problem and I think the hurricane issue though is it's a huge , it's going to hurt them . Obviously , the demo , but I thought it was a big missed opportunity because , like obama , that race was much closer than before .
That happened in 12 yep , they should have been down there oh yeah , like crazy opportunity yeah , and biden too , I mean , and just even just going and being in the control center or whatever you know , whatever you can do optics .
In politics it matters . Yeah , like people want someone to show up and show that they care . Because it does matter when a governor , when a president shows up , because they get more information and they're able to push things and make things happen .
Right , that's the biggest thing is that they can hopefully get aid there quicker for these people who desperately need it . And you have all these deaths that are happening . They want to know that they're being taken seriously , because they're losing communication . Things are down , power is down .
They don't know a whole lot of what's going on , so when you have somebody in power show up to help , that has to speak volumes to those people . I just think it's interesting that so far we're not seeing Harris or Biden touching landfall .
It's unusual Putting the waders on and going in there and getting dirty and helping out the people . Okay , I want to leave you guys with one other quick round question around the horn here what does this do for JD Vance ? And win or lose , is he ?
now the standard bearer of the Republican Party . I think it helps him . I don't know that he's necessarily the standard bearer . It kind of depends on what happens . I mean , obviously Trump wins , right , I think it's advantaged Trump . I mean , obviously Trump wins , right , I think it's advantage Trump , then it's going to .
He's clearly going to be the the front runner , right ?
In four years ?
Yeah , in four years .
Right , even if he let's say Trump loses . Did this do enough tonight for people to say man , he's formidable .
It just depends on the race goes . Yeah , you know .
Yeah , and I just think we have no idea what the next four years are going to look like , and I think it's pretty hard to say , okay , this is what we're going to still need in four years . I mean , look at the change we've seen so much from 2020 . We're day and night , really , from 2020 .
Yeah , to some degree . But I also think the direction the party is heading in , that populist direction , that working class direction , that's teed up perfectly for him Right .
But I think the party I mean Trump started that for sure . I think most of the party is pretty much there . Yeah , I mean there's not a whole lot of Okay , did you want to say ?
something . This was related to the hurricane thing . Oh , just that Trump has already been down to North Carolina .
Yeah , and he gave a couple of speeches down there the candidate , it doesn't do as much for you as it does as the incumbent .
No , I'm just saying , as far as the president couldn't go down there , but the guy who is not president did the guy who's been attempted assassination twice still went down to another state to go and talk to people there .
I think it makes a point In North Carolina . They're going to know that .
Yeah right , I think that's where it could be a local deal on the ground . Okay guys , thanks , appreciate it , it's never , dull ? Yeah , no , it is never dull moment . By the way , one more quick thing Any crazy stuff you guys predict is going to happen in the next month .
Do you think we're going to see another seismic shift in this race , or is it going to kind ?
of 35 days , right yeah .
So is it , or is it going to kind of bump along and then we're going to have a coin flip ?
I think it's just going to bump along . I think every little because it's so close every little thing is going to get played up really big . And I just think if Trump needs to maintain the momentum that he has in these states and just keep driving that message to the fact and you can tell the biggest tell was Harris going down to the border in Douglas .
Yeah , All of a sudden doing that .
Arizona is coming they .
All of a sudden . They're doing that because they're seeing stuff , they're getting worried , and it just shows that the momentum has shifted .
That's a good question . I think it still comes down to those a couple of a few swing states and I think it's going to just depend on how much they stay focused in those areas , more so than even the rest of the country . I know that sounds crazy , but I just think it's really . You know , we've all we've been talking about it for a long time .
It's going to come down to Pennsylvania , michigan . Maybe North Carolina is going to be a factor . How do they show up in those states and do they give any more interviews ? There's still chatter about this is going to bring Trump back out to do another debate tonight .
Right debate tonight . No way , I say . I see town halls , I don't see a debate , unless JD's going to roll out for him . No way , don't even do it .
You think Trump's going to let JD Vance have the last say .
I do .
if he smarty does you do Okay , but have we known him to not have his ?
ego , I'm just telling you and I will say this . I think one thing and Slotkin talked about this she's a Senate candidate in Michigan . She's looked at a lot of their numbers and she knows they're in trouble . And I'll tell you , I think the whole blue wall is going to go in one direction and I think you saw that future in JD Vance tonight .
Wow Okay .
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