It's night Side with Dan Ray. I'm telling you Boston's video.
Sorry, well, we're welcome back everybody ten o'clock hour here on nights. I thank you very much, Dan Watkins. It is a pennal eight or so at this point, and we have been.
Following the ups and downs of the stock market, the dramatic ups and downs of the United States stock market well for the last six editions of Nightside, beginning last Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and today.
The market had a huge day yesterday across the board, up up Wednesday on the Nasdaq, the S and P five hundred, the S and P on Wednesday was up nine point five two percent, Jones, the Dow was up twenty nine hundred points yesterday. The thirty sec thirty stock group of companies skyrocketed yesterday. Well today it kind of went back in the opposite direction. The S and P
five hundred down three and a half percent. On Thursday, the Dow tumbled a thousand points, down two point five percent, and the Nasdaq Tech heavy NASDAK as they say, down four point three one percent. How do you make any sense of this? And what should you do? There's someone who I have talked to. He's not a stock picker. He's not a financial analyst, although I'm sure he could he could be that he's one of the smartest guys
I know. Tatsu Eketa uh Tatsu is the CEO of a company called tech Health Ventures, co founder of refers ship AI. He has twenty five years of experience in technology consulting, business leadership to his analysis of the intersection between policy, economics and technology. Graduate of Carnegie Mellon, which I think is probably the school that has the smartest people in the world. Tats, who has run five businesses,
served on nonprofit boards of directors. His expertise includes blockchain, cryptocurrency, tech startups, cloud computing, iOS, app development, and network infrastructure. Speaks on AI, Python development, emerging technology. He also writes and he publishes on substack. Tatsu ikeda welcome tonight'side. How are you, sir?
Good? Thank you Dan. Good to be with again.
Yes, I'll tell you it's great to have you back, that is for sure. So we'll start off with general questions. You have I think a brilliant piece, a brilliant piece that you released. I guess it was April ninth, which would have been yesterday. Trump's tariffs, trade reset or market disruption. That's the question behind Wall Street market bro panic, Liiza more nuanced reality. The US consumer economy remains the ace up the sleeve and global trade negotiations. So we're going
to break this down. First of all, tell us a little bit about what you do. You write, you think, you publish. What amazes me is that your article, which is easily acceptable, accessible, I should say at your website not only is in written form, but it's also in verbal form. Do you want to tell us how that's done?
Sure, So I publish on substack because I'm a little too good for the New York Times. Just kidding.
They should be so lucky, they should be so lucky tat, So go ahead.
Yeah. So I try to write in a very accessible manner, as you say, for general readers, but try to try to explain very high level concepts. So you know, I try to teach PhD material to twelfth grade students, and that's how I that's how I approach my writing. And I do take cues from New York Times because they have a very good narrative form in terms of how
people accept journalism. So then I take that article that I write and I try to keep it short, you know, three thousand words, and then I feed it into AI, which can now generate a podcast for me. And so that podcast is about seventeen minutes. It actually makes it in three minutes, which is kind of amazing if you think about.
It, because I was listening to the podcast, and as a matter of fact, today I asked you, you know, who are your narrators? Those are a that's AI technology there, it's yes, it's it's generated voices. Is what it is. Was the male and a female voice, which basically can walk people through your article. Your articles are so direct and clear that when I say they're easy to read, they can be. They're challenging, and they will. They don't use baby words or anything like that, but it's very clear.
So let's start off a little bit with with this article, and if people want to join the conversation, you break it down into like sub sections. Okay, it's only three thousand words. So the introduction you is entitled predictable market market panic. Predictable market panic with a nice cartoon of tariffs some Wall Street. It looks like people with telephones that they are markets plunge. Algorithm algorithm algorithm algorithm panic,
the parents that work correctly algorithm panic. Explain to my audience what algorithm panic means.
Well, it means that most of the stock market activity that you follow, if you follow at all, is mostly computerized, right, So it's automated, and so the trading practices or algorithms if you want, are mostly computer controlled, and it's it's steered by human behavior. So and that's the panic that we talk about. But so so it's.
Not it's not it's not like five hundred traders on the floor making individual decisions and cumulatively that becomes the direction of the market, which is what it used to be. Now as there's algorithms that have been put into computers which say, if all of a sudden, uh a video uh drops two percent, then it's time to really sell, uh and and and and and nothing's going to stop that from selling, right. Uh.
There's there are things called like stop losses and other jargon to basically cut your losses at a certain point and sell. And so that's that's what's going on. You know, everyone's like in a panic, sell because some guy decided to put some teras and by the way, you can, you can catch uh all the all all the articles. It's called tap this newsletter on sub stack by the way.
Yeah, we'll we'll get that. And and I yeah, that's that's going to be easy. We'll give up, certainly, we'll we'll mention that. So, so you talked that he said critical facts behind the hysteria, Behind the hysteria you talk about, you know, President Trump, you know, imposes this ten percent tariff on all the imports on April fifth and then targeted rates on China. And is that a personal thing
with Trump? Do you think or is your analysis that this is actually thought through, because many of my listeners are beginning to doubt the wisdom of the guy that wrote Art of the Deal.
Right. Well, he's been very consistent since the nineteen eighties. It's very easy to find videos with him on Oprah. You know, I'm not sure what you're in nineteen eighties, but he's been railing this message that America has unfayed unfair trade partners across the world, whether it be you know, Japan, China. He's been saying this for decades and so he's trying to, you know, reset the position of the US as a trading partner, not just for you know, balancing our budgets,
but also to bring back industry to the US. And you know, there's examples of this that have worked in the past. So yeah, I think I think he's making a bold move. He you know, he might might say it's gambling, but I think it's an educated, educated one, and one with few downsides, right.
Okay, So so so let me ask you a question. As a historian, and you're a pretty good historian, it seems to me that our generosity to the rest of the world may have begun post World War Two with the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. Am I far off point on that.
Yeah, And there after World War Two we rebuilt Germany, we rebuilt Japan, like I, for example, I like to collect antiques that they made and occupied Germany or made and occupied Japan, and so literally rebuilt their industries and they had you know, think they made car companies, electronics and so forth. But then they started to retaliate on us, right,
so they instituted their tariffs, which no one talks about today. Strangely, because like, if terrorists are such a bad thing, why does it work for the rest of the world because they do it to us. Right.
I read a statistic that said ninety four percent of the cars in Japan are manufactured in Japan and that they import only six percent. That is that it's a very interesting statistic that they're able to control the infusion of foreign made cars into their country. Obviously they see that as something that's beneficial to.
Them, right, Yeah, So if it works for them, like can't we why why can't we allow ourselves as Americans to try to do the same thing. Like it's a very confounding idea that if currents work for other countries, why can't we make some work for us.
It's sort of what's good for the goose is good for the gander argument, I guess, when reduced the most simple form. But my guest is Tatsu Ikeda. He is a writer and a thinker. He is an expert on so many areas that I know little or nothing about. I stand in in absolute admiration in awe of his
knowledge base. If you had any questions about any of the related topics that we mentioned earlier, and you'd like to ask a question or compare your your point of view with Tatsu, would be happy to take your call six one seven, two five four ten thirty or seven six one seven uh six one seven nine three one ten thirty. So we got six one seven two five four to ten thirty and six one seven nine three
one ten thirty. We're going to walk through this. There's also have some amazing statistics that Tatsu has in this article that talks about how quickly our stock market has recovered and if the past is prologue. I think we should talk about those issues, and we'll do that when we get back on Nightside. Feel free to join this conversation, whether you agree or disagree. I think we'll all learn quite a bit in the next next forty minutes or so.
Coming back on Nightside, It's Nightside with Dan Ray on Boston's Lose Right.
We're joined by Tatsu Ikeda and Tatsu, you have a graph in your article in Substack which I think is really interesting, and that graph breaks down the recent you go back to Black Monday nineteen eighty seven, the two thousand Dot Com bubble, the two thousand and eight financial crisis, the twenty twenty COVID nineteen crash, twenty twenty two inflation, inflation rate, hike and the twenty twenty four tech correction, and it's amazing that steep Wall Street losses, for the
most part, we're restored pretty quickly, much more quickly than I think most of us. Remember, explain, you don't have to hit all the numbers, but explain it's the principle that you seem to have found in this market recoveries after major crashes. Graph that you developed.
Yeah, sure, sir, vocabulary and terminology around market dips tends to be greatly exaggerated. And if you look at the headlines, you would say that, oh my god, the stock market crashed, and you know, define the word crash basically. So I actually wouldn't consider the current dip in our correction as the finance bros like to say, as a crash, because it's not even to the levels of COVID the twenty
twenty crash and the twenty twenty crash. I mean, how long did it take to recover that, like nine months? And then the stock market continued to actually record highs, right, so just just nine months under a year, and that we were back to boom times. And the boom times were for people, people in finance, people on Wall Street, not not for us, you know then the normal citizenry who got fourteen dollars in COVID relief for some some business loans or you know things like that.
Sure, so what what So as you look at this, there's there's some wildcards on the table here. We have uh, these uh, these tariffs which were first imposed and then withdrawn and ninety day cooling off period. Where do you think will be ninety days from now? Do you think that President Trump will get many of these other nations, probably not all, but many other nations around the world
to comply with these reciprocal lower tariffs. Or do you think, uh, the world is going to stand up to to the United States and say, no, we're not gonna We're not going to cooperate. What's your guess?
Well, I hate to uh make an unintentional toun but the US economy is basically a consumer economy, and that's Trump's trump card, right. So we we buy everything, most of the products in the world from every country, and every every country exports to us. So if we stop buying from the rest of the world, everyone else goes out of business. That's It's as simple as that. So that's that's a very very persuasive card to, you know, put down on a table if you're playing poker.
And so I think so, then then let me ask you this is President Trump smart to as opposed to sticking with the Plan Plan A. Is he smart to have said, Okay, we'll take a ninety day cooling off period and we'll try to get as many of these negotiated as possible. I mean, did he make a mistake? You're not doing that initially it would be the flip side of that question.
Oh no, I think it was wise to, you know, throw down a very hard hand on the table, just bang your hand on the table and say enough, you know. And he needs ninety days because there's going to be a lot of negotiations with a lot of different dustries. So he's going to have to have a lot of his administration deal with all these individual deals. So I mean just just imagine if you're the RS and you have a million people not paying their taxes, Like, what are you going to do? You need time to sort
that out. So it's okay, moratorium, come to us, or we'll come to you. Let's talk it out. Well, that's what the ninety day.
Is about will most of these deals have to be reduced to writing tatsu or are they going to be handshake deals and you keep an eye on us, We'll keep an eye on you. And as long as you as long as you comply, will comply.
Well, I think someone's going to be watching that very carefully. I think it will be in writing. There's going to be an opportunity. Trump is going to allow other leaders in other countries to say face you know, that's the smart play for him is to let them come to us, you know, maybe come to the White House, whatever you want to do, and and make a deal. It's like, Okay, I made a deal with Trump, I'm good. Vote for me again.
So how do they How does he avoid more embarrassments like these Lensky meeting.
Oh yeah, Zolensky, that's just a different case. He almost had it there. I think Zolensky just had a very emotional moment. I don't I can't tell you if it was programmed or not. But it's clear that he was out of his league. And well he's kind of like other leaders like uh Natanyahu. He's on a string and if he doesn't retain power, it's very likely he could be under prosecution for various other activities in his life.
So yeah, I get you. Yeah, let me take a quick break. My guest is a tatsu Ikeda. He is an expert on so many things. I mentioned it earlier. He's someone who does go ahead, I'm sorry, did you want to say something? Oh, now I think I'm sorry. I was. I just got to rap here because they
got to go to the news. I was saying that you are an expert on a lot of things that are all sort of coming into play here, things like blockchain, cryptocurrency, tech startups, cloud computing, all of that which in this new system of trading that we have. And uh and also international relations, a graduate of Carnegie Mellon. Let's take a break, and we'll get a newscast and we'll open
this up for phone calls as well. Six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one, ten thirty. It has been a crazy week now eight days. It's been a it's been a rough time. But if you listen to tatsu uh, it makes some sense of it. Uh and and sees some structure that may be many of us in the moment of panic don't see. And that's why I'm having him with us tonight, and that's why he's kind enough to give us some time. He writes for sub stack, and we'll give you all sorts
of ways to follow his writings. And it's amazing how clear he is with explaining really complicated concepts. And then he takes that article that he's written again proximately three thousand words, and transposes it into an AI generated conversation of about seventeen minutes. So you can read the article, listen to the article, or do what I did and do both. We'll be back on Nightside with my guest Tatsu Akda right after this.
You're on Nightside with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
We're talking with my guest Tatsu Ikeda. He is he's a thinker, I mean, and he writes for substack. Uh. And before we get to phone calls Tatsu. The easiest way they just go to substack and look for your columns, Tatsu, t A T s U I kDa I K E d A. Is that the easiest way.
For Tatsu's newsletter? Actually?
Okayst fair enough on at substack at substack. Okay, So they got to get to substack and look for Tatsu's newsletter. Let's get to some phone calls and incorporate some of our listeners into the conversation. Steve is in Cambridge. Steve is one of my best callers. I always mentioned that, but I actually firmly believe that, Steve. You're on with Tatsu kDa.
Go right ahead, Steve Tatsu. Dan is always too kind to me. But thank you, Dan Tatsu.
Uh.
I'm glad to hear some optimism. Uh. But here is one argument. I have two arguments. Here's one argument against tariffs. In the nineteen sixties, we had three automakers, big automakers in this country, and they were very, very complacent, so they kept putting out the same product year after Your heavy cars used a lot of gasoline. And then we
started having Japanese imports, and people preferred those cars. They got better gas mileage, they were more nimbo then and only then did our car makers start to innovate, so that competition actually helped the American auto industry. How would you respond to that argument.
I totally agree. I don't see the relationship between innovation and tariffs.
The you know, if we had had if we had had a high tariff on Japanese cars, they never would have entered into our market, and then our automakers wouldn't have had to compete with them, and they would have just stayed the same.
Right, So I think that's what Trump is going for. I mean, the ultimate goal would be zero terriffs across the board for every country.
Right, that's I would that's totally free trade, yes, right, So.
I don't think Trump will get us there because you know, basically tariffs and US are higher against our tariffs against the rest of the world essentially, So you know, maybe if we get to fifty of the difference, that's pretty decent.
And but for example, for the consumer, consumer thinks day to day. For example, I enjoy cigars. Most of the cigars come from Central America or the Caribbean. If they put a terrify it in addition to paying the high taxes I have to pay for cigars, the price is going to go up and consumers aren't going to like that in the short run.
Right, Yeah, there's going to be a lot of turmoil. I mean, with every innovation, whether it's financial or technological, there's just going to be lots of turn and some things will go up, some things will go down. I mean, if we look at today's news, inflation across the board, is that record level lows.
Oh I'm so glad to hear that. Yeah, yeah, okay, I'm waiting for my cigar prices to go down, but the taxes keep going up, so I guess that's not going to happen.
Well, gas prices have also dropped in the last couple of months. There's no question about that, right, Yes, there is, there is, Yeah, is dropped as well. Go ahead, So.
Let me ask you one question, one more question. Why is it that all of our news reporting is so uh negative on Trump's tariffs?
Yeah?
The right, you know, if you want to be a leftist and call it the far right, ultramaga, whatever names you want to put to it. I believe that, you know, Trump is just the epitome of some kind of evil or something like this, and uh, I find it hard to accept. You know, He's just human being, and I think they're just being very rational to be.
You think our media is being irrational because of their dislike of Trump.
Yeah, that's part of it. The other part of it is the media is an instrument of you know, various powerful establishment figures we shall not mention at the moment, and they're literally, you know, puppets of those people. So they have a narrative that's pre destined to tell. So all right, well listen.
Thank you. I'm really really glad that you're on the show tonight to hear a somewhat different perspective than is being out there for most of the media. Dan, thank you, Thank.
You absolutely our pleasure. Steve, thank you very much. I appreciate your call. Let me very quickly. I'm going to raise some points that are raised Tatsu, and I'd like to get your response to them. Some who are very critical of Trump's plans here are saying this is really a lost cause because it will take five to ten years to construct factories to be able to compete. This is not something that we can turn around. It's almost as if the the forverbial horses have left the barn.
What is I know? The response is the best time to plant a tree is yesterday, but the best time to start building a new factory is yesterday. How do you respond to that? Do we have the capacity quickly to bring jobs back and open factories here and and start what we what we need to do. Tell us about it.
Yeah, well, I mean we have to get better about you know, planning, building, managing factories. We can do things the old way, you know. Obviously we live in Boston, so we know the world's most expensive construction project in the world, the Big Dig, right, fifteen years of total chaos and over overruns in the budgets and so on. Or you know, we can try to be more like China,
which is building the world's highest bridge. It literally looks like a skyscraper, but vertical, horizontal in the sky, really crossing to to mountains in southwestern China. And that's you know, they built, they build, They build these things in like a year.
You know, where do they get the capital? Where do they get the capitol to do that? I mean that sounds like an extraordinary.
Project, right, Yeah. The rate at which China of you know, builds infrastructure not just from the cells, but for Africa, they're building entire deports and you know, opening up trade for African countries and there's a benefit for them because they you know, China wants to be the major trading partner obviously, because they're building these things for free for them.
And they're building is it called Is it called the Silk.
Road, right? Yeah, the Silk Road. Yeah, so you know.
Which is is intended to cross.
Asia, right, Asia, Asia to Europe and in Africa. Yes, so very ambitious, but I think they're going to succeed. You know, they're they're you know this, this goes back a long way. African countries like Ivory Coast and New Guinea, they used to be after post colonial Europe. You know, they used to be training partners with America now building electro hydro dams, you know, leaders like Krame and Kroma and so forth. So but we missed out. I mean, we built the dam in uh Krouma, but the second
dam is going to be built by China. And where they get the money from, well, they get the money from the US consumer, you know. To bring this conversation full circle, yes.
And that's exactly what I want you to do. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Okay, that's the point I wanted you. I wanted to make. Let me do this. I got to take a quick break. We have packed lines here, so I think you're going to be interested in some of the folks questions that are coming in. My guest, Tatsu Ikeda, I think it's a fascinating conversation. I hope you do as well. I hope. The thing that's great about Tatsu is the is understandable and takes complex subjects and breaks them down so I
can understand them and you can understand them. Back on Nightside right after this break, You're.
On night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Back to the phones, who go, Let me go to Robin Medford. Rob, you are next on Nightside with Tatsu Ekta.
Gort ahead, Rob, Good evening, gentlemen. I understand that China exports about three point five trillion dollars, and if they are not exporting that three point five trillion dollars, their backup of widgets and all their widget makers will also be out of work. So will not they be affected? Twofold that not only will all their people be out of work because no one is buying their goods, mainly US,
but they will also not be selling anything. So will that not cause the economy more or less to implode sooner than later? With the two poles of fact, Yeah.
Let's see what let's you with? Tatsu says a great question. Wrong, Go ahead, Tatsu.
Yeah, So that's an interesting scenario, and there there are many different, you know, micro scenarios like this that make up the global economy, in our economy as a whole. So there's this concept of stagflation, right, inflation with flowed growth, and that's kind of what you're living to uh at. At the same time, there are other activities in the economy, such as if you read the article the example of
the home builder in Pennsylvania. I'm not sure exactly, I can't remember where he was, but he was like, well, if the terraffs, you know, slow down things, but it brings back manufacturing to the US over time, I'm willing to take that trade off because as a home builder, as a construction you know, general contractor or whatever, if if industry comes back to my city, then my business is going to grow. So that's the other side of it.
And you know, just you know, let's make the metaphor of technology right, good, go ahead.
Well, I recall reading an article that was called A Road to Nowhere, and it just talked about how China puts their people to work building roads and structures just to keep their economy going. They put people to work and keep them out there and without their people working and generating money, they're going to have uh uh, a surplus of things and and and a lodge amount and is their economy? Is this block market not going more?
Hay wires.
You don't hear about that in the media too. The effect that this is having on the Chinese start market is incredible.
They are okay, let's see, let's see Tatsu news. I'm unaware of that, Tatsu. Have you followed the Chinese market in the last week, eight to eight days.
Well, globally it's every every market is down and you know that's uh, you know, expected turn of events and it's just you know, a correction. And whether I mean we should define the word correction in markets? Right? Markets are not as rational as we think. You know, it's totally based on psychology and reason, fear, right, greed and fear. So you know, when when you fear, you sell and then markets go down. When you get greedy, you buy and hope for the best. So that's basically a market.
Go ahead, rob, Rob, I'm going to let you go because they want to get another call in before Tatsu before we got a break. Okay, okay, thanks you great. We make great points thank you. Let's go to Melissa in Portland, Oregon. Melissa, you're on with Tatsu Cada.
Go right ahead, Melissa, Hi, Thank you, Hi, Tatsu.
I really enjoyed your comments. My question to you is when jobs went offshore, in addition to cost in the US, it was also that the unions were kind of a part of the problem, you know, causing issues with rising cost. If jobs come back to the US, where do you see unions fitting into that picture?
A figure question. I haven't thought about it, but my bach would be that, you know, unions have to be a reasonable bargaining partner in all of this. So we know that we know unions in the past have been denigrated and their their bargaining power has been decreased over time greatly, so but you know, there's probably still a role for them. They would have to rebuild themselves and they would have to refashion themselves as an honest bargaining
partner in the negotiations. And it's tough because they sit between people in government like Trump and everyday workers. So they can't price themselves out of the market, which would delay innovation, which would delay building a new infrastructure for business projects like factories, and yeah, yeah, I think I think it's a good time for them, the unions, to rethink how they want to negotiate on behalf of the American worker.
Yeah, I feel like that's going to be a really critical part. I remember with the Auto workers Union a couple of years ago, you know, came up with a lot of really high end requests, like on the healthcare side. And you certainly don't want to lose benefits. But if you're making requests that are going to cost people jobs, you know, are you really helping? And so I guess as I as I've been watching and listening the last week, my concern has been, well, if we get the jobs back,
how do we keep them here? So I appreciate your answer.
Yeah, appreciate you call us always, Melissa, Thank you so much.
Thanks, BOBBYE.
That's it. We're sort of rushing up, getting up against the end of the hour here. I'd like to once again, the best way people can follow you they just go to Tatsu on substack. Is that the easiest way?
Yep, t A t s U Tatsy's newsletter on substack.
That's great. I'm looking at the nick A Average, which courses on the other side of the world. Right now, they're off about five or six percent. They were up nine percent yesterday, so they have sort of reflected this. I have no idea where the market's going to go tomorrow. I have no idea what's going to go next week. But I guess you're telling us that at the end of this you think we're going to be okay.
Yeah, it should be fine. Like I didn't include, you know, prior talk market crashes before nineteen eighty. You know, you can go back to nineteen thirty if you on, and we've always recovered, Like the stock market is very, very reliable. You know, look at look at the long term growth over one hundred years, two hundred years. I mean, it's never it's unbeatable.
That's thanks for some optimism. Thank you so much. We will talk again. Tatsu t a t s U newsletter at substack. It's an extraordinary, extraordinarily clearly written and also you can listen to it a conversation about it, which
will tell you as well. I highly recommend for every one of my listeners to at some point tomorrow or the or over the weekend, spend some time uh and follow and follow Tatsu because I think that he is as as keen an observer as I have seen in the last a few weeks on this and previously on our other issues. That's who my friend is. Always. Thank you, I will have you back if that's okay with you.
Yessly, it's alta. It's a pleasure again.
Thank you, Hey, thank you, tatsu Okay, we come back. I would like to continue the conversation. Do you feel a little better as a result of talking to Tatsuo or talking listening to Tatsuo? I know I do. If you're on the lines, stay there. If you're not, fill the lines up six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty forty eight hours ago, we were kind of where we are right now. We had a great day on Wednesday, not
a great day to day. Who knows what happens tomorrow. Back on Night's side, after this