It's Night Side with Dan Ray w BZY, Boston's new radio.
All right, Al Griffith, thank you very much, and we are changing topics, going from rats in Boston to the to the more I think international story, the war that has broken out between Iran and Israel, and it is showing no signs of letting up. President Trump has suggested that he's going to give it about two weeks and it's a it's a story that a lot of people have viewpoints on, including my guest. My guest is Tatsu Akeda. He's been a guest before. He writes from amongst other places,
sub Stack. Tatsu is an investigative journalist and analyst, A graduate of Carnegie Mellon UH in Pennsylvania. Tatsu, welcome back to Night Side.
How are you good, Dan, Nice to talk to you again.
Oh my pleasure.
Now.
So you do a newsletter, uh, and you were very statistically oriented, and I want to emphasize that that you're you're objective, you're an analyst. As a matter of fact, I remember last fall when you predicted that Donald Trump would win the electoral College and you basically picked every state correctly except one. There was seven so called you know, toss up states, battleground states, and al those seven you gave six to Trump, which he won, and the only
one you missed was Michigan. I don't know there were too many political analysts who can say that they had come such a bad You're you're hitting ninety eight percent there, just pretty m.
Yeah good, it was actually eight out of nine. But yeah, I created a Python on software program. Uh, you know, Python being the preferred language for data scientists, and you know, eleven eleven thousand lines of code and thirty statistical statistical methods and basically it's measuring the error within polling and so it's it's a little bit meta. But yeah, I was. I actually did have the best result for the year. But yeah, that was fine. I can't wait till so.
I just want to make sure I heard you. You said you did have the best results. Correct.
I beat every professional poster, you know, forecast that I could see.
Sure. Well, there was one poll that was way way, way way off, and I'm wondering if you remember it. It was the Des Moines Register, which has for many year has been kind of a gold standard in the Iowa newspaper. And they made their marks because over the years, they've done pretty well. Polling the Iowa Caucus is going back as far as nineteen seventy six, maybe even before. I think the Iowa Caucus has actually started in seventy two. But they were able to pick Jimmy Carter as a
dark horse early. And then they had this crazy poll which showed Harris beating Trump in Iowa something like forty nine to forty two. It was shocking, stunning when you saw that poll. Were you worried at all about your analysis? Because obviously if Harris had been Trump in Iowa, it would be mad In president today, no question about that, right.
No, I wasn't worried. I took this as confirmation that most of the professionals out there were just kind of losing their mind.
Yeah, for a lot of reasons, for a lot of reasons bases.
So yeah, you know that's something I studiously tried to avoid.
Okay, so let's let's talk about your your latest work. The headline says t L semi colon d R colon why Israel already lost to Iran? What is the the the significance of the t L d R is that some sort of cold that I should know.
Yeah, so that's uh gen z speak for too long, didn't read. Yeah, that's actually a fiction title.
But yeah, okay, so this is the this is the summary. Okay, too long, didn't read all? I get it. So, uh, let's let's hit some of it. Tell us what how can you conclude at this point? And I think you're I think the title is net Yahoo Trump, EU, European Union lost rising Lion already. I mean, this thing's about a week old and you're you're calling it, uh in effect, if not a loss for Israel and the West, is it a win at the same time for Iran or do they both lose?
Well? I think we can. First of all, my premise started before the war began, Okay, so I believe that Yahoo, by taking the first step with the first strike, already lost it. But as as the confert continues, this is the pattern. Net Yaho goes into you know, various countries. He's he's fighting on seven fronts now. And let's let's take example of for Gaza. You know, it's it's been a year and a half and what has he achieved?
You know, he's clearing victory, but has he actually met his initial objectives?
Well, I think he's decimated the leadership of Gaza. He's done that. He's destroyed a lot of the structure of Gaza. Sadly, but I think, yeah, the service level is gone, it's like it's completely dust.
But we're how about the tunnels, Like we still we still have fighting between amas, spiders and IDs and it's kid for tat, you know, every day.
Still I don't know what the numbers are. I mean I thought that I thought they that Israel was brilliant in terms of the walkie talkies uh and the pager self exploding devices.
They're very good at sebotage.
Well they took up I mean, they took out the leadership of hesbolon right.
Yeah, they're they're very good at you know, spycraft, stagecraft, whatever you want to call it. And they definitely implemented that in their strike initially with Iran. And that's why, you know, first of all, they set the stage. It's like we'll talk to you Sunday, you knowman, and the US is like, yes, we'll see you there. And then they attacked them on Friday, two days in advance that they weren't prepared, and then they planted all these drones
throughout inside Iran to basically disabled their air defense. So the first night was pretty Badran as they just watched, you know, the jets overhead pending rockets and missiles down. Pretty bad night.
They killed a lot of nuclear scientists. I think they got eleven or twelve of the top nuclear scientists and around that.
Correct.
Yeah, you know, however, it's done, and I'm not sure if they got them individually, if they knew where they lived, I'm unclear on that. Do you have any clarity on how they were able to get that many nuclear scientists.
Well, because they weren't expecting a strike, they obviously knew the residences of all these scientists and around didn't move them into bunkers. So they killed the scientists along with their families.
A military leadership, military leadership.
Right right.
I'm not saying they were playing fair, you know, I'm not saying they're playing fair. But i want to get to what you're concerned about, because I'm not trying to put you on the defensive. I think my audience knows that I'm pretty pro Israel, and you know, we may agree or disagree on that. I'm looking at your analysis here, UF some headline says, the math is simple explain.
Sure. So Israel is fighting a very high tech, very expensive war and they're obviously the main suppliers US the US, and what they're doing is they're doing like a Cold War you know, top Gun Maverick, fighter jet kind of scenario. And actually it's it's really funny that like Top Gun Maverick, the latest Tom Cruise movie in the series pretty roughly
resembles the scenario that's playing out today. It's like Tom Cruise has to go do this incredible strike between the mountains with you know, a fighter jet, and this team has to come behind him and replicate the exact same America.
So it's like that's what they want to do today, but Israel's doing it much much cheaper, right, So we have three hundred forty jets and if you think about the human cost here, So the first night they flew two hundred sorties, right, two hundred flights, and each each guy has to return, and each plane has to be maintained each hour. The flight time requires twelve dollars of maintenance. And each interceptor they send up in the air to defend tell they the Hypha, the Negeb desert et cetera.
Costs three to four million dollars each, right, and then you take a look at it on they have three thousand plus missiles. No one actually knows. Today Israel said, oh, they have actually eight thousand plus, so we're kind of worried.
So no one knows. And they cost fraction of the cost one hundred thousand, half a million dollars each versus three to four million, right, So each each each missile Aron sends over and remember it's not just one interceptor per one missile, they send three to four per so they're spending you know, okay, one hundred thousand dollars missile, and then they're spending twelve million dollars to defend and they're still getting through. So it's pretty much unsustainable for Israel.
They're they're projected. Wall Street Journal said today that they're going to run out of interceptors in ten to twelve days. If you track flight data online, you'll see the US is sending C seventeen globe masters to send in more arrow interceptors today. But you know, how long can this go on? For it like they literally can't build enough interceptors to match the pace of the missiles. So to me, it's simple math. And it gets worse every day as
we notice, Iran is papering off their missile deployments. So the first night it was like two hundred missiles that went on for a couple of days. Now we're in day six and they're sending less and less and they're getting more brazen. They're actually doing the attacks during the day, which tells them that they're very confident they can get through, and they do, and.
They're also hitting civilian areas.
Yeah, it's collateral. They do try to stick to the military sites, but because Tel Aviv especially is so embedded with the civilian population, it just can't be helped. So like today, the Shroka Hospital, yes, directly in between two military sites and actually Soroka is a military hospital that's where they evacuate any idea of soldiers who get injured. And actually over the main entrance there's a military helicopter a photo of it and it says Sharooka Hospital Israel's medical iron Dome.
You know it's not already there, certainly no doubt tatsoo, hold on for a second, I gotta break for a couple of commercials. Here a number of things we want to talk about. Those of you who are listening and would like to ask questions, You're more than welcome if you want to ask a challenging question, that's okay. I think it's important for us to discuss this from whatever perspective. Again, I remain very strongly pro Israel. I'm sympathetic to their
circumstances for a number of reasons. I think all of you know that tatsu is looking at this as an analyst. I really haven't pressed him, nor do I intend to press him on what his own personal beliefs might be here, because he is an investigation native, a journalist, and more importantly, an analyst, and he does back up his his his assertions with evidence, which I think is what journalism is
all about. We'll take a break if you'd like to join the conversation six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty or six one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Coming right back on Nightside.
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray ONBZ Boston's news radio.
My guest Tatsu Akada. He writes for Substack. He's an investigative journalist and an analyst, and he is looking at what's going on overseas in Iran, in Israel, and he feels, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm just to sort of simplify. You believe that Israel may have bitten off more than they can chew.
Let's say I understated the matter. Okay, The primary mission, the primary mission objective is not achievable by Israel's military. We know that, right, and so that, you know, the New York Times today had this big piece with infographics and how the Americans could carry a strike with the GBS. It's fifty seven thirty thousand pound bomb twice through you know, two hundred feet of granite. And that's it's again, it's like top gun rappers. I can't believe, like the movies
are real. But so yeah, the mission, even if the Americans chose to take it on, would be very difficult. It would be very risky, and it probably wouldn't work. It's like drill drilling through the sky through who knows how many meters or feet of mountain rock. So so decided to send it anyway, and so it's unlikely that he's going to achieve that mission of destroying a nuclear enrichment facility.
Well, right in your article you you identified several locations that are critical, critical locations. Uh. And then Israel has tried to do damage to many of these facilities. But what again, I don't know how.
It only compounds the problem.
Tell me, why tell me, not.
Just one facility. It's it's up to.
Sure yeah right, oh sure right yeah, different different nuclear facilities and oil facilities. So I have you with four uh nuclear facilities. I've seen some maps would say more, but but that's okay for for nuclear facilities. And I don't know how. I guess, I guess the big prize is for Dow, a fuel enrichment plant, and that's the one that's buried deep in the in the mountains, correct up to.
A half a mile. There's there's nothing. It's actually nuclear proof, like if you dropped a nuclear bomb on it, it would survive.
Okay.
So that's that's how it's their newest facility. And they built it, you know, from its inception of conception to be nuclear proof.
So if net If net If Prime minister net and yeah, who came to you and said, look, I read your article on sub stack and obviously you've pointed out some some flaws in our game plan. To put it in the terms of of of a sporting event, what would be the best course in your mind for Israel from a tactical point of view, you know, put put aside my bias, which is pro Israel. What what would what would you advise him to do with this point? I mean, he clearly wants to inflict punishment one and to stop
Iran's progress towards achieving a nuclear bomb. Is that an impossible goal in your mind?
No, because they they've proven to have infiltrated on attounts before through you know, espionage, right, So ducks ned actually code name Olympic Games any software virus implanted and developed by the NSA and Unit eighty two hundreds, which is the counterpart of NSA and Israel. And so they managed to insert spyware through an air gapped technology system that means not even connected to any networks, right completely in isolation.
They did some pretty fancy five stuff to get in and they succeeded, you know, in destroying many centric features before they found out what was going on. It's actually Israel's fault that they got found out. The NSA told Israel hey, like, tone it down, Like, if you keep destroying these centric figures at this rate, they're going to figure it out, right, Okay, was like whatever, bro, and they just went for it.
All right. Sometimes you can be over confident, Okay, fair enough.
So so you mentioned right, well, you mentioned some other I mean, they they seemed to be pretty innovative, that's for sure, But you mentioned some other things.
You're talking about ut Yahoo's fatal pattern fighting seven fronts guys eleven Yemen, West Bank, Syria, and Iraq, and now are run Syria. I don't know what they're you know, Asade has gone, and it sounds to me I don't know enough about the new government that has taken over. I guess it's headed by some folks who used to be either in or associated with ISIS, which is somewhat problematical. But has Syria activity? Is there? Is there active fighting going on between Israel and Syria?
Yes, they're there. So Jolani I can't remember his new name, but okay, he used to have a ten million dollar bounty on its head by the US government. I mean, I think the Western powers just wanted I saw gone, and so they got what they wanted and they don't care who took over. So it's kind of a repeat of you know, some of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, So you know, it's it's probably gonna turn out bad for us.
It's probably gonna backfire. I mean, everything we do in the in the Middle East tends to backfire.
We don't we haven't had great results so far. I'm with you there, believe me.
Yeah. So yeah, So I haven't researched very extensively Jilanie. Other than his background, it seems very chaotic, just like it is with Iraq, and it's probably worrying factions, warlords, a whole mix of you know, infighting amongst the Arab groups.
Truly a coalition, is what you're telling me. That's that's what I think I've heard. My guest is natsu at Keata writes for Substack has a very interesting piece investigative journalist that analyst graduate of Carnegie Mellon, one of the smartest guys I know, and he's looking at this as an analyst period uh, and he has come to the conclusion that Israel may be in a fight that they cannot win, which should be of concern. Is of concern to me, and maybe is concerned to some of some
of you out there. So if you like to ask Tatsu a question or make a comment, feel free six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty. Tatsu got a break for newscaster at the bottom of the hour, and we will be right back and uh, we'll dive a little deeper into this. I also want to find out from you where how folks can get your newsletter. I think it's pretty easy to access, and
I think they'll be impressed by the work. We'll be back on night Side with Tatsu Keta right after the news.
It's night Side.
Boston's news radio.
We're talking about Iran and Israel, a little bit of a different perspective here with me as my guest, Tatsu Kida h he has written writes for Substack. Again, the easiest way for individuals to follow you, Tatsu, give me give us a however that works.
Yeah, I would just search for Tatsu's newsletter t A t s U at Substack Texas newsletter Substack.
Okay, that's that's easy. So why do you think would I think you addressed this? Why do you think that Netanya who has decided, Uh, to go ahead with this. Obviously he had I assume some of the information that uh that that you have. What why at this moment? Why not wait a little while?
What's well, this is if you follow the trajectory of his career ever since he was very young, and I believe he's raised in Brookline, right, So.
He went he went to high school. He went to high school, believe it or not. I believe in Philadelphia. He was a classmate of the great baseball player Reggie Jackson and went to M I T. So he had some Boston roots. There's no doubt about that, right.
I think this is his life's ambition too, just go out and conquer the entire Middle East. That's something that's not said very loudly in public, but if you look at his actual statements, that's what he wants to do. So he wants to go after Yemen, after he uh you know, do you knew gloriasis Iran? He's publicly stated like he wants to go after Pakistan, and then he wants to go after you know, every other country in the Middle East.
Well, if he if he is, I mean they fought Egypt in his lifetime a couple of times that fought Jordan, that that fought other Arab nations. They haven't occupied, they were attacked. I don't know of any you know, land of anything. They've given land back that they conquered at different at different points in time. So if he really is a conqueror, he had, he doesn't have a really good track record in terms of conquering and occupying.
I would argue differently. Tell you why Palestine, well the Palace. Jams wouldn't argue differently for sure.
Right, But he also sees that as a he sees that as a part of Israel. You were talking about conquering the Middle East. He he the they have the goal on Heights, Yes they do, but they've given back parts of Gaza that they have been.
I mean they may effectively have Jordan. They they effectively have Jordan. There's a there's a they're completely cooperative to Jordan, Jordan, Syria, even even Iraq. We're actively shooting down missiles coming from Iran, and that.
Might be don't you think and again I'm not trying to be argumentative with because you're my friend and I and we can disagree. Don't you think that perhaps those countries who are in the region recognize that a greater threat exists coming from Iran than necessarily coming from Israel. I mean, I don't think that there's too many people uh in in the country shoot that you mentioned, you know, Syria, a raq A, Jordan, aren't.
I don't think it's about people. I think it's about leadership.
Leadership, well, the leaders of those countries. Yeah, I mean the leaders of those countries. L CC in Egypt, I think he probably is more comfortable uh dealing with net Nyahoo than he would be dealing with the with the Moullahs in Tehran.
I think, yeah, that's true.
And so I don't know that that's a conquering impulse from from net Yahoo. So where did I want to get to some phone calls? Let's let's grab some phone calls and then we can we can continue on with our with our chat. Let's let me go to We're going to get Bill in Pennsylvania up here. Let me grab my mouse and and bring Bill up. Bill, welcome your first this hour at nightside. You're on Tatsukeda. Go right ahead. Bill. What's your comment to question?
Well, my comment is that I love the journalists that are skeptical and this gentleman that you have on tonight is skeptical, and that's a good thing because if you go back to the previous wars uh over there in that area, it seems like the press in the in the old days was was cheerleaders to get us involved over there. So I'm glad to see that we got a different uh you know, uh thought process going on here.
And by the way, it's a he's a pretty smart guy. So he and I may disagree, uh substantively, but I respect his intellect and I respect he puts on paper what he believes and and he backs it up with facts. Go ahead, Bill, I didn't interrupt.
No, that's okay. I want to ask your guests. You know, I've been watching the news just the last couple of days. Now, okay, Now today I heard twice, once on CNN and once on MSNBC, UH people talking about that they think that the Israeli commandos will make ensure no matter what happens if they if we decide, if our president decides to go ahead and uh use the V two's and the and the bunk or buster bombs, that there will be an assessment after that attack and if need be okay,
that Israeli commandos will go in there. And from what I understand from some of the life sources, unretired military that these uh Israeli, the idea of people that it would be going in have been practicing for the last year in Gaza, in the tunnels of Gaza, And that makes sense to me. That makes sense to me. But I was wondering if your guests had hurt anything like that.
Well, let's let's take it one at a time. Bill, I'm gonna to catch you off. Go ahead, you want to respond to that.
Yeah, So I don't think it's has enough commandos to do the job. So we're talking about a country of nine point five million people and how many this around house, oh, eighty five million, so that the ratio is way off and the size is way off. So Israel, you know, I don't know how large Israel is probably the size of New Jersey.
It's almost it is very much the size of New Jersey and also kind of shaped like New Jersey too, by the way, right, But.
They got better, better leadership than New Jersey.
That's not hard. That's not hard. Go ahead.
Concept Star runs roughly the size of Alaska or four times the sides of France, three times the size of Germany. It's huge. It's massive, like it covers most of the western United States. It's big. So how are a few thousand commandos gonna follow up on that there? There's no way there may be completely surrounded within hours. And how are you going to get them in there? Well? The reason why go ahead? Yeah, I just think I just think that, uh, you know that Israel has complete superiority
in the air. They can do absolutely anything I want to, And I think that they could, you know, with the with their asset air assets, they could give good cover to the commando's.
What is your what's your second question? You said a second point too?
Well, I was just wondering if if your guests had heard anything about, you know, the commando's training in Gaza for for this scenario that had you heard any of that or no, I haven't this first time hearing it. I think if if you're basing the you know, improvement in the command as performances with the CAUSA, I wouldn't rate it very high because they didn't finish the mission, but the tunnels are still there. Yes, the leadership is degraded.
I wanted to make the point earlier that maybe Hamas is not as militarily strong as uh they are g g in Iran.
But.
Iran is very prepared, so they they have ten people. For every leadership person that gets eliminated, they can take charge. So their willingness sacrifice, right, like, can I just make one more? One more quick quickly.
Built way past my break, quickly go ahead?
Yeah, I just think that, uh, you know, they told us that we were going to lose fifteen to twenty thousand of our of our soldiers when we went into Iraq, and storm and Norman and his boys were had knocked that place down in about two weeks. I think it was right. Yeah, So I'm sorry, what's the point you're trying to make.
Well, I think he's trying to say that that maybe the strength of the Iranian military and the loyalty of the Iranian military might be similar to the strength and the and the loyalty of US Addam Mussin's forces. I think that your.
Point is actually worse. I think it's actually worse, for this really is like the an Iranian will power is unmatched in the area maybe in the world.
Let us see, we certainly will see that. Thank you, thank you, thanks, I appreciate it. I got to grab a thanks I've got to grab a couple of commercials. Here'll be back with Tatsu Kata Substack writer, investigative journalist and analyst grutch It Karnegie mellon. If you really do take the time to look at what we're talking about, you could go to his Tatsu's newsletter Substack and let us let us know. We'll be back on Nightside right after this.
It's Night Side with Boston's news Radio.
A couple of our callers want to know. We're going to celebrate the summer solst as well. The summer solstice now is about I don't know, four minutes old. Here, we're kind of getting right to it, so we I think at this point we are definitely in summer, safe enough to say that we're in summer, and I think that the feeling is that well spring is gone, spring is gone. So happy summer, everyone. You heard it here, You heard it here. First on Nightside with Me is
Tatsu the Kata. Tatsu is a investigative journalist and also a an analyst, and he is a figures a numbers guy, no doubt about that. Carnegie Mellon Carnegie Mellon Graduate. You can find his stuff at Tatsu's newsletter on substack. Pretty easy to find. I think you'll find it interesting. So, Tatsuo, based upon what we have talked about, how do you
see this playing out? And I'll ask you for I know that normally you're not here to do predictions, but based upon the the facts that that you have developed and analyzed, how long does this face off, this this this, this, this war continue, how does it end? And do you think that the US, either because they want to or they have to, are going to get directly involved?
Yeah, well the US has already involved, and it's just a question of degree. Comment that we that we further our commitment to Israel and they if we look at major conflicts around the world like Ukraine, like as of these engagements have stretched out longer than anyone's expected. So the problem. The problem for Israel is that they will not be able to keep up and they don't have the resources militarily, and they their weapons systems are out
of date for this type of conflict. It's shocking that they don't have hypersonic missiles like Iran has the most advanced hypersonic weaponry in the world.
Yeah, what is the source for that weaponry?
They developed themselves. I mean some of the some of their drawn technology is inherited from the US. Accidentally, in twenty eleven they shot down the r Q belief and they retro engineered it. But you know China, China is very good with hypersonic weaponry, and so this is you know, yesterday they launched solid fuel missiles towards Israel, very effective and hype the Negev Desert. They start Microsoft's headquarters in Israel, which is supplying AI and other technology to target inside
of Israel Iran. So yeah, I think this is going to go on for a while, and I think, just like with Gaza, they're going to continue to claim victory and it's not going to be exactly true. So whether you believe it or not, that's up to you as an analyst. I believe that Israel is losing. No, they don't have victory anywhere. They don't have victory in Gaza, they don't have victory in Yemen and all these other fronts.
I don't know what else you can call Gaza. But but I'll leave that one for another night. I mean, I think that they have decimated hamas they had. We talked about he Lah. I don't know how you can characterize that as anything other than a victory for Israel in Lebanon.
Well they you know has hesba Lah like you know, I first kind of woke up to you know, all the events and then add list in two thousand and six when they, as you say, decimated Lebanon, right, and they come back, they come back again and again.
Yeah, well no, there, there there. Look, the the people they're fighting are ideologues. There's no doubt about that, and there's no question that they will come back. Hey, I got to let you run because I'm up at the eleven o'clock news. Tatsu Akada, thank you so much for joining us. Interesting perspective backed up by your analysis uh and your investigative reporting Tatsu's newsletter at substack. Thank you, Tatsu. We'll do this again and in short notice. In short order, I should.
Say, okay, thank you, thank you.
We'll talk to you soon. Yep, tatsu Akada, I K E D A T A T s U. Tatsu Akada. My name is Dan Ray. You don't have to spell my name. Just listen to the show. We come back. We're going to the twentieth hour, the final hour of the week. It's been a long week, uh, and I've been fighting a bit of a head cold for the last two or three nights. So I'm looking for you. It's just you and me between now and midnight, right here in WBC