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Stocks Slide - Part 1

Apr 23, 202542 min
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Episode description

U.S. stocks fell sharply, and the dollar index slid to a three-year low on Monday amid President Trump’s continued criticism of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While questioning Powell’s policy approach, the President has been urging the central bank to immediately lower interest rates, which is rattling investors. Gregory Stoller, professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business joined us to discuss the current state of the stock market and the economy.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

It's Night Side with Dan Ray on w b Z, Boston's Radio.

Speaker 2

All Right, welcome back everyone. We're going to change topics here and we're going to welcome back to the program. Professor Greg Staller, he teachers at Boston University School of Business, the Questrum School of Business at Boston University. Professor Staller, welcome back to Nightside. How are you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Dan, appreciate the opportunity to come back.

Speaker 2

Well, you were my go to guy here. We talked a couple of weeks ago about tariffs, which of course have royaled the stock market. The market today had a pretty good day. It was almost a mirror reflection of yesterday, which was a pretty bad day.

Speaker 3

That was absolutely correct. It was about two point seven percent today and it was down two point five percent yesterday.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and the future suggests it's opposed to open tomorrow a little higher, which again some people believe that some people don't. Well, we'll see how it works out. A lot of people are worried at this point. I guess what were the factors today that that perhaps helped quiet

the market. The market down It was up around a thousand points middle of the day, and then in the early afternoon, it slid back down about six hundred, about four hundred points down into the six hundreds, and then it came back up and end of the day, I guess eleven hundred to the good. What was it the president's comments that he's not going to fire Powell? Did that make at least no plan scurrently to fire Powell? Is that much?

Speaker 3

Ballace bounced towards ballast towards the end of the day. I think what caused the markets to go up in the first part of the day was Trump gave an indication that maybe the China related tariffs that are up to one hundred and forty five percent at this point might be coming down. And I think he's also getting pressure from a variety of different advisors and constituents, and I think he is rethinking his approaching.

Speaker 2

Okay, now, of all the people who I know, nobody has been to China with as many students on as many trips as you have. You began this process how long ago in your career as a professor.

Speaker 3

As a professor, from my first first trip to China in two thousand and one, but as a civilian, if you will, my first time was in nineteen ninety four.

Speaker 2

Okay, so you got over there in nineteen ninety four. Now it's thirty years later. We're in twenty twenty five, so it's really almost thirty one years later. How substantially, since China is our big economic competitor, how substantially has China changed in the thirty years from the China that you first arrived at in nineteen ninety four to the China of today.

Speaker 3

Remarkably so. In the late eighties early nineties, there was something which is in Chinese called geigo kaifong or the reform and opening that you know. Again, this is not Nixon opening China with his historic trip, et cetera. But

this is more of an economic perstroika of sorts. Is China decided that they wanted to embrace the West, and they ended up having a really great system where they would take foreign investor capital, and they would build factories, they would use labor, and they would export those goods and services to an extent, sort of like India did with business process outsourcing to the rest of the world. And everybody was happy until the wheels came off the bus.

Speaker 2

Okay, let me take get back to ninety four when did did China was? Was it at some point China granted Favored nation status by the World Trade Organization?

Speaker 3

Yes, absolutely, the favored trade status came in the early two thousands, and it u and I'm just checking the exact date on that. And the fact of the matter is that it further continued to let the good times keep rolling off in the sense that back back in ninety four, Dan labor rates were so cheap, and the Chinese weren't concerned at that point about clean water, they

weren't concerned about providing living wages. They were looking at themselves as sort of a direct competitor to Japan in the in the in the decade of Japan inc. Produce it for low dollars and sell it off and make a lot of money.

Speaker 2

Okay. It also was a time, if I remember correctly, with there was some political reform. With economic reform, there was also some political reform. And actually I think that churches were allowed to Chinese citizens were allowed to exercise, you know, some limited form of free speech, and churches were treated a little bit better, you know, after all of the events of Tenement Square in nineteen eighty nine,

et cetera. So there was there not just there was there was trade reform, economic reform, but there was also some what we would view as political reform.

Speaker 3

That's my one hundred and by the way, beyond most Favored Nation status they received they being China joined the World Trade Organization in December of twenty oh one. So you're right, it was the combination of everything. It was political reform, I think what I would call cultural reform and economic reform. And you know, to your point, we're talking about two decades ago, right, two decades ago, everything

was coming. The United States was buying, the West was buying, and China was manufactured.

Speaker 2

And there was there was a lot of Western money that went into China to produce the manufacturing plants. And there's I'm sure you know this stuff cold, but there are a lot of American companies that took their manufacturing over to China because they felt it was beneficial to their stockholders and to their bottom line.

Speaker 3

One hundred percent. So if you think about just FBI foreign direct investments, and you think about where it started in the New millennium, it was forty billion US dollars. A little more than a decade later, eleven years to be specific it ballooned to one hundred and twenty four billion. So think about that, in eleven years it went literally, yeah, tripled.

Speaker 2

Okay, and we weren't worried about that at that time. I don't recalled. I remember in the nineties people talked about our trade in balance, but it was always our trade in balance with the world. There was no focus on China. It was we were we were buying too much and exporting too little. I remember that was a political issue. And then that political issue seemed to go away. I don't know why the lact way, but correct. Did we as the American public just lose interest in that?

Did the politicians decide, hey, this isn't driving the votes, so therefore we'll, you know, we'll go off and highlight other issues.

Speaker 3

I think what shange good question. By the way, I think what changed is that in those eleven years, China kept improving its wages, that they moved from a living wage to actually, as I mentioned earlier, providing infrastry ructure, clean water, and opportunity for their citizens to not have to take a train for thirteen hours over Chinese New Year and live in a dorm like. Everything started to

improve for the People's Republic of China. The problem with that is the labor rates that the West was relying upon in Western companies in terms of getting good margins steadily went down. And because they steadily went down, I think people said, the emperor no longer has the economic clothes, and why are we continuing to buy these products that the margins aren't so good. Let's talk about domestic manufacturing. And of course people said it's too expensive the United States.

And then all of a sudden, as if a switch was flipped, people said, oh, by the way, we have a trade of balance, and the politicians just absolutely jumped on it like a shark who senses blood.

Speaker 2

Right. But I think this is something that President Trump has believed in for a long time. I think if you go back to his first term, you'll see there was some tariffs that were imposed. I don't know how successfully they resulted, But this is not his first rodeo in terms of tariffs.

Speaker 3

Correct, Oh, not at all, not at all. In you know, again, if you think about history. Right back in twenty nineteen, the CDP, the Customs and Border Protection Office, raised seventy three billion in tariff revenue that was in the fiscal year of twenty nineteen. To put that into perspective, since January twentieth of this year, they've raised twenty one billion dollars.

Speaker 2

So on a percentage on a on a basis, it's almost the.

Speaker 3

Same one hundred percent, correct.

Speaker 2

I mean if they raised seventy three billion in tariffs in twelve months, that's six billion a month, which sounds like a lot of money. But compared to you and you said, it's twenty one billion and we're almost four months in, that's about six billion. It's the same. What was it? What was it in the interregnum, if you will, when Biden was in the White House? That did tariff stay pretty much this where Trump had placed them.

Speaker 3

Or tariff stayed the same, Yeah, stayed the same.

Speaker 2

So so now he the president, with his you know, conversation about Liberation Day, he's dramatically increased the tariffs correct across the globe.

Speaker 3

Correct his bowl is And again you know me, Dan, hopefully your listeners know me. I'm always trying to be objective, so I can speak in support of President Trump's approach. I can speak against President Trump's approach in support of his approach. He's hoping that number is two billion a day. I don't think we're getting anywhere close to that. Again, according to CNBC, as I said earlier, we might be

at around two hundred and fifty million a day. But last I checked my map, two hundred and fifty million is a lot different than two billion dollars.

Speaker 2

Yeah, even if you get two hundred and fifty million a day, that that's maybe two billion a week. You're now at eight billion a month roughly, so correct, you know? Obviously? Well, okay, listen, don't want to get too deep into the weeds. When I come back, I want to ask you about your most recent trips there and what you're hearing, what China is thinking. I want to put you in the position of interpreting for us what China is thinking. At this point,

I don't think China has budged. I know that that President Trump says he has a great relationship with Chairman g Presidents. I get all of that, but I haven't seen them moving. And at this point, I don't know how long the President can hang with this without some significant results. And I don't think we've seen the results that he had hoped for this quickly. We're about a month in not quite a month, and.

Speaker 3

I would agree with that. And by the way, to prepare for tonight, I have read multiple articles in Mandarin in the Chinese business press.

Speaker 2

I all interview I understanding is you speak seven languages.

Speaker 3

Yes, that's correct. I also talked with the Chinese journalist. So I would like to believe that I have a little bit of insight into what China is thinking right now in response to the reciprocal tariffs that have been placed upon them.

Speaker 2

All right, that is exactly what we're going to talk about. If you would like to ask my guests. He's a great friend. He's been on this program many many times over the years. Uh, he is really one of my go to guests on anything. Oh, he is my go to guest on China. Professor Greg Styler with the Questum School of Business at Boston University. He has led delegations of students, both undergrads and on graduate students to China

dozens of times. We'll get to all of that, and your phone calls six one, seven, two, five, four to ten thirty. If you really want to talk to someone who has spent time in China, who understands China's view, they are not as impetuous. I think, as we are as a society, we look for a turnaround within forty eight hours. They think of a turnaround, I think in terms of a short term turnaround, in terms of like

forty eight years. We'll get to that as well with my guest professor Greg Styller right after this break six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or six months seven nine three to one, ten thirty. Great opportunity for you to ask a question of someone who will give you a straight answer about a very complicated issue.

Speaker 1

Night Side Thought with Dan Ray. I'm WBZ Boston's News Radio.

Speaker 2

My guest professor Gregg Staller. He is with the Boston University's Master lecturer at the Boston University Questrum School of Business. How many times have you taken students to China over the years.

Speaker 3

I've been to China over fifty times.

Speaker 2

Okay, in many of those with accompanying students. We can talk about that a little bit so so from China's perspective. I know you sent me a little summary which I really appreciated. The time you spent today you were checking out China television news, financial times in China, and in another website called Caxon, which I'm not familiar with. That is a Chinese based newspaper or.

Speaker 3

Is it a correct It's in Chinese, it's pronounced I seen, and it is the probably equivalent of Yahoo Finance here in the States.

Speaker 2

Gotcha? Okay? Perfect? Okay? So so they obviously representing many their articles represent the philosophy of the government more so than say, the New York Times and ABC and yeah, you know, Yahoo Finance represents the philosophy necessarily of the incumbent administration here. So when you read them, you're really reading what the Chinese government believes it. Am I correct when I say that? Or is that too correct?

Speaker 3

And obviously you know we can we can split hairs. I'm not necessarily sure that all three of those articles are direct mouthpieces for the Chinese government, right, not I but I but I think they are directionally correct.

Speaker 2

Yes, okay, and so so cumulatively, what do you think Chinese position here is when when when President Trump sits down with his advisors and he says to them, you know what's going on? What are they thinking? How come they haven't folded their tent here? We'll hit him with one hundred and tariff of one hundred and forty five percent. What's going on?

Speaker 3

Would I tak Yeah, I would tell them that there are three things going on. One is they are displaying a show of confidence. Second is that they are displaying a show of pragmatism. And third is they are calling President Trump's bluff, saying that he overestimated his bargaining approach on the terifficient.

Speaker 2

Okay, so how long are they willing to to steer him down? At what point does either side give or could this go one now for months?

Speaker 3

So that was the epicody that I had as I finished my third article and actually checked this with a Chinese national to make sure that my translation was correct. There are in the process of rejiggering their supledging. They are already in advanced discussions with German companies in China. They're already in discussions with Latin American companies in China. And they basically said, we gave the United States, for all intents and purposes, a right of first trading refusal.

We love working with the United States. We worked with the United States since you know they got into the World Trade Organization in twenty oh one. But if times are going to change, and a direct translation from the article. If the US is proving to be unreliable, we still have a job to do.

Speaker 2

So in in layman's terms. In Layman's terms, what is the impact on us if that is not a bluff, but that is what they really believe in, what they really intend to follow through with.

Speaker 3

I think to your point before you went into a break, that the Chinese perspective of time is a lot different than we have it here in the United States, so they're in no particular rush. I think that President Trump was hoping for a quick turnaround on this, and it certainly is not happening as quickly as he would like. So I think that China is taking the pack of We'll keep talking and hopefully we can broker some sort of settlement, but we're not going to rush the process.

And if you guys aren't making a decision, we are going to rejigger our supply chain. And it's sort of the game of musical economic chairs, and we hope the United States still has a chair when the music stops.

Speaker 2

Okay, when we get back, I'd like to talk about what is it that we so desperately need from China that that would would be a pressure point.

Speaker 3

Great, great question.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and how long can we do without before a real crisis. I mean we're in a crisis now, but the crisis intensifies, that will be where we'll start on the other side of the news at the bottom of the hour. My name is Dan Ray. This is Nightside listening to my guest, Boston University professor at the School of at the School the Question School of Business. He's a master lecturer there. I was stunned that you speak

seven languages. Greg. I've known you and I have a tough time speaking one and I'm the talk show host.

Speaker 3

Well, I'll keep in mind there. I stick at sports and I don't do hold improvement on the weekend, so I need something to keep myself.

Speaker 4

In the.

Speaker 2

Professor Greg Staller, the Boston University Question School of Business. If you'd like to join the conversation, you have the numbers, love to hear your questions. I'm trying to think of the best questions I can come up with, but I'm sure you have some better questions, So feel free to join our conversation at six month seven two five four to ten thirty six month seven nine three one tenth Already Professor Staller was telling me that it was with us just two or three weeks ago. I can go

back and find the date. He said that he never had such response in all his times here on Nightside to this topic, which is in very large part why I want him to come back tonight and stay with us on a regular basis, because I think, just as COVID was the story of twenty twenty, this my instinct political instinct tells me this is the story of twenty twenty five. We'll be back on Nightside right after the news at the bottom of the hour.

Speaker 1

You're on Nightside with Dan Ray on WBZY, Boston's news radio.

Speaker 2

You are indeed on night Side with Dan Ray, but you were also on with Professor Greg Staller. He is a master lecturer at the Boston University Questum School of Business. It's been back and forth to China dozens of times in the last thirty years. Knows that economy as well as anyone I could imagine. So Greg, the question we left with on the other side of the break was, we're a We're an impatient We are impatient people in America. We want things done quickly and effectively and efficiently. At

what point is this going to start to. Right now, we're worried about the fluctuations in the stock market, and people to worry about their fro one ks and their iras and all of that sort of stuff, their wroth accounts. They're worried about the value of their investments. When does, when does this get better anytime soon? And how do

you see it getting better? Let's look positively, does the President Trump announced deals with sixty or seventy five major nations and isolate China or the China just hang out and effect make us uh so uncomfortable that that we're missing medications or we're missing computer chips. So whatever, what how does this end? Do you think?

Speaker 4

Again?

Speaker 3

Good question, Dan. You you might think I know a lot about China. You know more about politics than I could ever know in probably two lifetimes. It's my understanding at that's true, Uh, Craig if I'm wrong, but I believe that a number of elections, either at the local, the state or the national level, are often decided by

people in terms of the impact of their pocketbook. And I think if if I think, if it's and you can you know, give all of the statistics that you want as a political candidate of how well you've done, But if the economy isn't humming along, people are going to use that against you. That's my understanding, right.

Speaker 2

And there are special elections that have come up recently. Even though the Republicans held two congressional seats in Florida, the margin of victory in those seats are pretty disquieting for the Republican Party because these were districts that in northern Florida, which President Trump carried by some thirty two or thirty four points, big, big, big victories, and they were within March, they were within ten point margins, huge difference,

trending in the wrong way for the Republicans. So those would be a couple of canaries in the coal mine for the Republicans. And you know, at some point there'll be more of this, so that you know the politics very well as well. I'm more interested in the economic impact here.

Speaker 3

So the economic impact is that, according to a number of sources that I've been reading for the past three or four weeks, this could represent this being the tariffs, a loss of almost five thousand dollars per household if things continue unchanged.

Speaker 2

Is that worst case scenario.

Speaker 3

That is worst case scenario, and even though he's put a pause on it for ninety days, multiple outlets have reported that it could go anywhere from a low of three thousand to a higher seven thousand. I splewit the difference at five as the worst case scenario, and it could be a problem.

Speaker 2

Okay. Meanwhile, China sits back and there's nothing that we have or that they need that they now cannot afford. I mean, I assume that's part of the White House strategy.

Speaker 3

Right, I mean, the White House strategy is saying, let's have this be a test of wills, and let's outstair one another and hopefully one side will blink. I mean to an extent. You know, I'm reminded by a great quote by Woody Allen that the definition of a good compromise is when both parties walk away dissatisfied. So I think that sure, you know, if President Trump is willing to give in a little, if President She is willing to give it a little, I don't think either side

is going to declare victory. But don't don't forget Dan that China, only second to Japan, holds over seven hundred and fifty billion of US treasuries. Okay, oh yeah, they are not about to just you know, say goodbye and and just dismiss out of hand the United States and say see you later. It's the nice doing business with you. They know that a lot is invested in our economy. But I think the biggest thing that is concerning to me is there is no other nation on Earth where

saving face is more important than in China. And I think that is the canary in the coal mine that you mentioned earlier, is that President she cannot just capitulate because that would be a cultural disaster. And by the way, I'm not so sure that President Trump could easily capitulate.

Speaker 2

It him right, which again would point you towards a compromise of some sort. Let's let's work some phone calls in here. Let me go to Dennis Dennis, Dennis, appreciate your calling in. Professor Greg Staller is with us. What's your question of comment, Dennis.

Speaker 4

Good evening, gentlemen. I believe that could you tell me the advantage in precious metals and how much in an advent is to China have over the US and precious metals.

Speaker 3

A huge advantage. A lot of what we take for granted in our cell phones are precious metals or or if you will, that exists in China, and that's part of the reason why the United States needs access to that. It's no longer a situation Dennis, that it is a lower labor costs, but it's rather access to minerals, it's access to components, and it's access to supply chain.

Speaker 4

And one other question, okay, energy, how much you're going to do does the Chinese have over the US and solar energy.

Speaker 3

Not as much as rare minerals. But again I think that you know, and this is the example Dan and Dennis that I use in my classes all the time. I wear a regular run of the male pair of dress shoes whenever I teach, and that is probably one hundred and fifty one hundred and seventy five dollars a pair. Right, It's not gooky, it's not some design or brand. If the tariffs continue and that cost increases to three hundred dollars, I'm going to start working sneakers. I'm going to start

going there for it. I mean, I'm not going to pay three hundred dollars for a regular pair of everyday shoes. And I think that's the problem right now, whether it's solar, whether it's cell phones or everything else. To Dan's point a few minutes ago, everybody's dealing with it, and so far we have hope that it's a ninety day reprieve.

Blah blah blah blah blah. If that ninety day reprieve expires and we go back to where we were a couple of weeks ago, then I think Americans are going to get really, really frustrated in terms of ballooning prices.

Speaker 4

All right, Hey, thank you very much, gentlemen, and we'll tell you later. Dan, appreciate your call.

Speaker 2

Dennis, talk soon. Let me go to Doreen and Chelsea Dorain. You're professor Greg Staller.

Speaker 5

Go right ahead, Dorian, good evening to both, Hie, Dan, I think everybody should just buy the cheap brand and everybody will be equal.

Speaker 2

I don't know that that's going to necessarily work that way, but I guess that's that's one strategy individual should use. Are you feeling any any crunch y at Doreen and you're, you know, going to the grocery store or anything like that. What's what's what's your economic status? No?

Speaker 5

I don't because i'll uh, i'll buy products that uh not named brands.

Speaker 2

Okay, so.

Speaker 5

Yes, because you see, for instance, can I mention Campbell soup?

Speaker 2

Sure?

Speaker 5

Absolutely good, all right, it's on the shelf.

Speaker 2

Right if you buy all of Campbell soup tonight for dinner, as a matter.

Speaker 5

Of fact, go right ahead, nothing wrong with it. If you look towards your right, you'll see, well, I don't know now how they display them on a shelf, the name brand like stopping shop Rand, it'll.

Speaker 2

Be a little less expensive. I got your point.

Speaker 5

Yeah, and then the next next to that might be higher than Campbell.

Speaker 2

Right, yeah, So you're a shopper and you'll you'll adjust accordingly. That's just you know, that's what probably a lot of people are going to try to do.

Speaker 4

Yeah, so.

Speaker 5

About a car, like for instance, I don't care when everybody says, and anybody does about what car they want to drive, But I'll take a forward any old time.

Speaker 3

That's it.

Speaker 2

That's that's one of the things that maybe will result here. Maybe people will.

Speaker 5

Be doing well because again, if you know, we don't really know where the paths.

Speaker 3

I understand that.

Speaker 2

Yeah, but I understand that. But it may be an impetus for some of the car manufacturers to do more work here and have less tariffs than the car I don't know Greg on that question. How quickly can we adjust our automotive industry in this country. It seems to me that's not something that we can get get it turned around overnight.

Speaker 3

So during a great question or great comment. By the way, again, based on multiple outlets that I researched, even US made cars have fort of foreign parks, So it's not this is not binary, this is not what we should buy American and we'll solve all of our problems. I will

agree with you, Doreen that it certainly will help. And again, as I said earlier Dan, towards the top of the hour, I can speak for a same amount of time and support of what President Trump's trying to do and against what President Trump's trying to do, and support of what he's trying to do. To Doreen's point is get more Americans to invest in our own industry and buying American pros. Right, and by the way, sixty percent is still a majority.

So even if you buy a forward, you're still investing in the USA because you've got sixty percent of the parts manufactured here. So, Doreen, you're making a lot of sense. But Dan, as you said, you can't just up and move a supply chain. You might be able to do it with I don't know, carpeting or flooring. You might be able to do it with other components that aren't as technologically complicated, but you can't do it with computers or phones. I mean that could take years.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Yeah. And also I'll be going back to the car thing. If if there's a car that that is hit with tariff because it's made totally overseas, that's going to be a pretty more expense more expensive car. If an American car, domestic car is hit with a fort tariff, meaning forty percent of the value of the car, is it gets hit tariff of some level that's better than one hundred percent tariff, so that that might be a sufficient savings for some people. Do rein them up. My break,

I gotta let you go is always. Thank you so much. I appreciate you, Chris.

Speaker 5

Thank you, good night, great night, by bye bye, thank you.

Speaker 2

My guest is a professor Greg Staller of the Questrum School of Business at Boston University. I have some other questions we have some other callers. Let's we'll keep rolling here right after this break, we'll try to get everyone in. I'm going to ask quick direct questions of Professor Staller, and I haven't even touched upon the experiences that he

has had. We have talked about them before, of him taking American students US students to China and interacting with Chinese companies and which has been a great, great success for various schools, including obviously Professor Staller's classes. And I guess that also might grind to a halt, but we'll talk about that as well. Coming back on Nightside, It's Night Side with Dan Ray on.

Speaker 1

Boston's News Radio.

Speaker 2

My guests Professor Greg Staller, Boston University, Question School of Business, Greg real quickly and again we're getting tired on time here. I want to get some more callers in. Give me your assessment of the economic team that Trump has assembled around him. You must have a sense of who these men and women are.

Speaker 3

I think that to President Trump's credit, he has assembled a team of loyalists, and I think in the world of politics, again, I want to stay in my lane, Dan, I'm not a political scientist. I don't teach that stuff. But from my understanding, there is so much at stake in terms of running a country that some presidents obviously have people who are not necessarily fourth right in terms

of being a team player. I think to President Trump's credit, he's tried to assemble two types of people on the team. One is loyalist and people who come from extremely large business backgrounds that have run publicly traded companies, that are captains of industry who's hoping that their industry experience is going to affect meaningful change, as opposed to President Biden, who took more of a politically savvy approach to getting legislation done.

Speaker 2

Okay, And I also just quickly want to where are you on consumers are going to have a big impact. There'll be an impact on our consumers, but probably it'd be small business owners. So we're going to feel it first. How quickly will have they already begun to feel it?

Speaker 3

It's already happened. It's already happened over the past ten days. And I think that's the area of this that I'm most concerned about, is that people. A good friend of mine is in the carpeting, it's flooring business, and he called all of his customers and said, because of the tariffs, the quotes that I gave you are essentially going to expire in five or six days, So if you'd like to have that original quote honored, please pay in full

over the next five or six days. And he had something like a ninety five percent positive response rate because he knows that as of day seven he isn't in a position to absorb the increases. And I think, once again that's the area that concerns me. Apple, Walmart, picked whatever large publicly traded company you want. Obviously Wall Street's going to scream and yell if their margins go down, but for a quarter or two they could take the hit.

Small business, this is their vocation, this is their livelihood. They're not about to absorb a thirty percent increase in cost or twenty ten percent, pick whatever number you want. They're going to try and pass it on to the consumer. And the average consumer isn't going to be able to afford that. And to Doriam's point, you don't find maybe you buy a local brand, but that's assuming the local brand hasn't been impacted by a place.

Speaker 2

Yeah, all great points. Let me go real quickly, Joel and Newton. Joel, we're fast running out of time here with unfortunately with Professor Staller, every hour with him goes by real quickly. It got you in here quickly, go right ahead.

Speaker 6

That's a I appreciate it. So I just had a hypothetical to run by us a Staller. So I did know Trump diminished the terrorists for cell phones and computers?

Speaker 4

Correct?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's correct.

Speaker 6

Yeah, but does that promote like us building it in the United States of America when somebody that computer. So that's the pay one hundred and forty percent terriff on battery.

Speaker 3

Very important. Ye, that that's exactly the point is, Joel, is that he is hoping through no fault of his own. By the way, I respect what the President is trying to do, which is to have US buy American made products. The problem is that so much of what we use is either a car or electronics. As I said earlier, you can't just up and move the supply chain in ten minutes and say, oh, we're just gonna we're going to inshore back to the United States. This stuff takes time.

Now companies have been gradually doing that. They've been de risking by getting out of China. They've been going to Vietnam, They've been going to Laos, They've been going to Cambodia, they've been going to Puerto Rico, They've been going to

all other locations. But a the process takes time, and something that the Chinese should be very proud of is they have a lot of infrastructure built so it's never a problem to get the stuff from the factory floor to a port of call and then exported out other countries. That's a evolving process.

Speaker 6

Noah, I appreciate that, but I just feel he's going about it willy nilly, and we're going to pay for it, that's all.

Speaker 3

I Again, I'm trying to be objective. I think I will. I will turn that question over to Dan, But I see what you're saying. Angel.

Speaker 7

Well, let me just say this, Joel, if if, if you're correct and and we end up paying for it in the end, he and the Republican Party will pay for a big time correct.

Speaker 3

Yeah, And I hope people realize that.

Speaker 2

But well, I think I think it's just they vote with their pocketbook. As as Professor Stallas said earlier, I'm going to try to get one more in here. Thank you. Joel Warren, I got you really ted on time here. I got about a minute quick comment or quick question for professor.

Speaker 3

That's a quick question.

Speaker 8

I have the Man Street that was created before President Trump came in with all the imbalances. Why was that accepted by every other administration for Trump?

Speaker 3

I think it was accepted because, as we said earlier, people vote with their pocketbooks. I think if goods are affordable, I think if inflation has been tannted down, I think that if the average person so their summer vacation, aren't paying higher gas prices and everything else, people just choose to kick the can down the road, and nobody wants to deal with you know what I call the political

third rail of trade and balances. But now, of course, as I said earlier, people are waking up and saying the emperor has no economic clothes, and now everything's open to debate and amendments.

Speaker 2

Well, and great question, great answer, Thanks buddy, appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Okay, thank you so much.

Speaker 2

You're very welcome, Professor Staalad. My final question is is this going to impact your student trips to China?

Speaker 3

Do you think that is something that literally has started to me up at night, is we are relying on so many be you is very very fortunate that we have close to twenty five percent of our students being non American students, and a lot of those students enroll in my classes and look forward to these field studies, oversee these treks. I'm concerned that they are worried about not getting back into the US. If the average American student cannot afford the cost of these trips anymore, that

is what is concerning me. But again, the same way that I'm telling business owners to take it one day at a time, I've got to heed my own advice and just take it one week at a time and get through the spring semester and hope that cooler heads prevail on the full.

Speaker 2

Okay, So I said my last question, this is my last one. When is your next trek schedule? I assume you're done with them for this year?

Speaker 3

Correct? I am done, right, I'm done with the trek the latest trip. I changed the countries, the cities, and the companies every year. So twenty twenty five we went to Hong Kong and Vietnam. We are hosting an international case competition in Sweden in early June. So that's the next official case competition trip. The next trek is going to be in hopefully late twenty twenty five, in the fall or early twenty twenty six, and we're just hoping that we can continue to do this.

Speaker 2

All right, Professor Starer, once again, immense thanks. We'll get you back soon. I just want to continue to follow this story and you want to be our guide.

Speaker 3

Thank you again, Dan for the opportunity. I keep saying it, but it's true. I really appreciate the chance to come on. I'm a huge thank you to your listeners from earlier in April. I received so many follow on questions and I'm just very lucky to be able to do what I do.

Speaker 2

Well, we're likely to happy. We'll talk again, all right, Thanks thanks, professor. All Right, we are done for this hour. We have the news. I'm sorry I'm a little bit late, but I think the hour was well worth it. Back right after the news, not exactly sure what we're going to talk about. Stay with us, back on Night's side.

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