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Riding the Tariff Wave Part 1

Apr 10, 202539 min
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Episode description

Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Trump raised the rate on China to 125% and paused steep reciprocal tariffs on all non-retaliating countries. The turbulence on Wall Street has certainly raised concerns for many. Jared Dillian, author and writer for his newsletter The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals joined Dan.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

It's night with Dan Ray. I'm going easy Boston video.

Speaker 2

Tough night for Boston sports teams. Today, the stock market had a great day after four days of a huge drop. Stock market snapped back today based upon the decision by the President to authorize a ninety day pause in his reciprocal tariff plan. The all of the Wall Street, the the S and P five hundred up nine point five percent today, the Dow up seven point nine percent, the NASDA C up twelve point one percent. It has not made up the losses of the last week that started

with the President's announcement last Wednesday afternoon. So with us to try to make some sense of this, as Jared Dillion, Jared is someone who knows this area much better than probably any guest I've had recently. So I'm delighted that Jared has has us joined us tonight. He is a graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy in nineteen ninety six BS in mathematics and computer science from the University of San Francisco. In two thousand and one, as a

master's in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance. He earned an NBA Award for Highest Academic Average from the Savannah College of Art and Design in twenty twenty three with a Master of Fine Arts and Writing A He's accomplished in many ways. He's an author. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, A Passover One, No Worries, and Night Moves. He also is a Progressive House DJ and speaks frequently of mental health issues at financial Institution.

Has spent time on Wall Street himself, and has appeared on Well Everything, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, tv BNN, New York Times, LA Times Business Insiders. So, Jared Dillion, thank you very much for joining us tonight. We're we're looking forward to try to figure out what happened today. Did it all come down to the decision by the President to pause the implication, the implication, the implementation, I should say, these tariffs for ninety days.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having me. It's great to be talking to you. Yeah. I think the Trump team was getting a little bit concerned about the impact on the stock market, and there were some comments, one in particular by Jamie Diamond, who's the CEO of JP Morgan. Jamie Diamond said that the tariffs would cause a recession and they would cause corporate defaults, they would cause bankruptcies, and Jamie Diamond is is some what you

want to listen to. And I think I think the combination of these things led to Trump saying something that would explicitly make the stock market go up. And even earlier in the day, he tweeted out, today is a great day to buy, and nobody really knew what he was talking about. And then three or four hours later he suspended the tariffs for ninety days on everything except for China. The tariffs in China are still in place. But no, this was this was an explicit attempt to

make the stock market recover. It was also hurting him in the polls. You know he was it was it was it was becoming unpopular people who had seen their four oh one k's go down.

Speaker 2

So yeah, now you know, Donald Trump is a different sort of president. And I have looked at this and I'm not an expert, a Wall Street expert like you are. I don't have the experience you have, but I've looked at this as an incredible gam by the Trump administration and President Trump himself, meaning if this is successful, if he accomplishes what he has set out to accomplish. He becomes a transformational president and is then linked to people

like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt obviously for dealing successfully with the depression of World War Two, et cetera, Reagan taking down the Communist empire. And if he if it doesn't work, he's he's now relegated to the dustbin of history, if you will, with Herbert Hoover, are you surprised that he is putting so many chips on this particular issue this early in his administration.

Speaker 3

Yeah, A whole wants to talk about here. So, I mean, Trump is a protectionist. He has been his whole life. He's been talking about tariffs for decades. He believes that he can bring manufacturing jobs back. Manufacturing jobs, by the way, have been going down for one hundred years, even you know, before during and after NAFTA another pre trade agreements. So you know a lot of these jobs are gone forever because of automation and stuff. So I don't really think

we can bring manufacturing jobs back. But that's not really the point of what's going on. I don't think Trump ever really intended to put tariffs on every country in the world. I think this was a little bit of game theory on his part. I think his intent all along was to put tariffs on China. And it's funny that you mentioned Reagan because you know, like you said, Reagan defeated the Soviet Union and how did he do it?

Because he got into an arms race of defense spending and basically ran up deficits to seven percent of GDP and outspent the Soviets and bankrupted the Soviet Union, and then the Berlin wallf fell, and he's got an airport named after So I think I think Trump is trying to do the same thing with China. China is more than an adversary. It's a communist country with one point four billion people. They really truly are our enemies. Shi

Jingping is a very dangerous person. I think if he had the ability to do so, he would try to rule the entire planet. China is dangerous. So what I think, what I think Trump is trying to do is to drive the Chinese economy so far into recession or depression that they don't have the ability to spend on their military, and they become so weakened that they actually collapse. I think that ultimately is the goal.

Speaker 2

Well, the other problem there in terms of China is I've read that China is planning to move on Taiwan. They obviously have had military exercises over there, but to move on Taiwan, that little island off the coast of China sometime in twenty twenty six. The window that I've read is twenty twenty six to twenty twenty eight, which is a very dangerous period of time. And Taiwan, as I understand it, is the computer chip manufacturing capital of the world, which would be devastating if they were able

to successfully take Taiwan. How is that a factor?

Speaker 3

For sure? It's a factor. I mean, look, I think if that was Chinas and ten I think they miscalculated because I think if they attacked Taiwan when Biden was president, there probably would have been no resistance whatsoever. If he attacks them while Trump is president, we're going to get into a hot war and they're going to lose. Sixty percent of the world's semiconductors come from Taiwan, and we've known this for a while. This was the whole point

of the Chips Act that Biden signed. The Chips Act is designed to build semiconductor equipment factories in the US to reduce our reliance on Taiwan. The bill is really a complete disaster. It gives a lot of money to Intel, which is a failing company. There's all kinds of DEI stuff in it, so it hasn't reduced our dependence on Taiwan at all.

Speaker 2

There was a piece of legislation that I keep going back to that passed in nineteen ninety six. Bill Clinton was President of newking which was Speaker of the House, and there it was bipartisan and it basically moved a lot of our pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I think a good portion of chip manufacturing, to whatever extent ship manufacturing was in vogue at that time out of places like Puerto Rico, where we had easy access and no supply line problems

over to Asia. How is it that our members of Congress can vote for pieces of legislation like that which clearly are not in the long term interest of the United States.

Speaker 3

Well, I think, you know, I think we should treat the leaders in nineteen ninety six a little more kindly. You know, China in nineteen ninety six was a very different country than it was today. It was emerging from communism, it was experimenting with capitalism. It was relatively free. It was after Tenement Square, So you know, China was an emerging economy, and you know, labor costs hadn't gone up very much at all. In fact, labor costs were very low.

So people said, look like, you know, we can we can manufacture much much cheaper in China, and you know, have this stuff for a lot cheaper. And you know it made sense at the time, but you know, China has changed a lot, you know, even since two thousand and eight.

Speaker 2

I agree with you. My guest is Jared Dillion. He is a He has a resume that a lot of people would be very envious of. He is a graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy with a BS and math and computer science, master's in Business administration from the University of San Francisco, and he's been involved in finance. Is a he's a renaissance man in many respects. He's a writer, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. And we're picking

his brain tonight about what has happened today. I mean, in a period of a matter of two hours, we went from a nation I guess on the brink of plunging into a bear market and have come back now. I don't know what the future holds. No one is going to be able to predict that, But I'm really interested in Jared's analysis as to where we may go from here. I suspect, at a minimum, Jared, turbulence is going to ease. That's gonna be my question when we

come back after this break, how much more turbulence. This was a very turbulent month or so, going back even to the beginning of March. Within the markets, it was not a good month in March. It sounded like a horrible month in April. Is this the end of it? Or are or it's going to come back, you know,

ninety days or maybe seventy five days from now. If you'd like to join the conversation and talk to someone who knows this stuff cold six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty, we'll be right back on night Side.

Speaker 1

It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WA Boston's news radio.

Speaker 2

Jared, I know no one can predict the future here, and I'm even looking at futures tomorrow. The all the futures, well, nastac's off quite a bit. S and P futures are off. That was up a little bit, but it looks like it's going to be a day tomorrow. Do you think we're through the worst of the turbulence or could this snap back at us in the next uh, stay within the next month.

Speaker 3

I think we're through the worst of it. I think the lows are in. But typically the way the stock market behaves is it's it's very uncommon to have what you call a v bottom where stocks crash and then they rebound and they just go straight up. That's pretty rare. Usually what you have is a retest of the lows, or multiple retests. So I do think that you know, we were up eight or nine percent today. I think probably the next two or three days it's going to

be a little choppy. We could give back half of that. But really the market is behaving a lot like it was actually after nine to eleven. You had in both cases, you had this exogenous shock in one case the terrorist attacks, in the other case the tariffs, and the market went down down, you know, twelve to fifteen percent, rebounded very quickly and almost got up to the highs and then consolidated for a period of three to six months, and then you know, you had a lot more downside in

two thousand and two. You had a big bear market in two thousand and two. So that's kind of what I That's kind of how I think this is going to play out. If you ask me tomorrow, I could have a completely different opinion. But that's where I am right now.

Speaker 2

I can understand that how much of the factor. If you compare this to two thousand and one, we as a nation rallied. It was probably the most solidified we were as a nation in my memory, well, at least in the last forty years. We're not in that situation right now. We have some people who are just committed to Donald Trump no matter what. They would have watched the market go down as Lois had had to go and they would have stuck with Donald Trump. Not everyone.

And then there are folks on the other side of the equation who look at this and say, this just proves this guy is way in over his head. Does the fact that we're so split politically make a really solid economic recovery less likely or is that irrelevant to the marketplace.

Speaker 3

I think it's kind of irrelevant. I mean, basically what team Trump is trying to do. In particular, Scott Besson. Scott Bessen is probably the most qualified Treasury Secretary ever to hold the seat. He was chief investment officer at Soros. He probably is one of the top five currency and bond traders in the world. He's brilliant. He's absolutely brilliant. And you know what you heard him say over the

last couple of months was that the economy needed a detox. Okay, So during Biden, basically Biden front loaded all the pleasure. You know, we were coming out of the pandemic. He was doing stimulus and child childcare credits and free money, and we had zero percent interest rates, and we frontloaded

all the pleasure. And what Besent is trying to do is to frontload all the pain, right, And what he wants to do is almost engineer recession in the beginning of Trump's terms, so that either at the midterms or in twenty twenty eight, we're coming out of the recession and we're booming by the time the election comes around. So this is very calculated, you know, there it is,

it is. It is a bit machi Abelian but I truly believe that if we are going to have a downturn, they want to have it now and not in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2

Similar to what Reagan did in eighty one and eighty two. Now he inherited a different economy than Trump inherited. It's kind of the idea of if you eat your peas and carrots, you can have dessert.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it's very similar. I mean, it was a little different with Reagan because that was more driven by the FED. That was driven by monetary policy. You know, Jimmy Carter replaced Arthur Burns with g. William Miller, and he replaced William Miller with Paul Volker. Volker ripped rates all the way to fourteen percent. And we had a very severe recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term. I mean

it was incredibly severe. GDP was down six percent. But by nineteen eighty three eighty four, things were doing much better.

Speaker 2

This morning in America, remember, yep, that was that was That was the slogan. My guest, and as you can tell, he's somebody who has a lot of backgrounded this, Jared Dillion. We were talking about the decision today a reverse hustle, by the way, a rare reversal by President Trump. As of yesterday, he was saying, and his spokespeople were saying, no delays on the tariffs. The tariffs have been delayed

now for ninety days except for China. I'm also told earlier tonight that the tariffs on automobiles are still in place. That was told to me by someone earlier tonight from the automotive industry. That kind of surprised me. Is that accurate what I was told?

Speaker 3

Actually, I can't. I can't confirm. Goody, I did not hear that, so.

Speaker 2

Okay, fair enough. Yeah, it was someone earlier this evening. We were talking. We were talking about the whole is used from US World and news report talking about the impact of tariffs on cars, and he was saying that they're going to be in place, and we're not removed today. But we'll leave that alone. The only lines that are open, folks,

six ten thirty. Everything else is full up. We will get to phone callers, assuming Jared, you'll be willing to stay with us and take some calls from some listeners.

Speaker 3

Yeah, absolutely sounds great.

Speaker 2

Jared Dillion. We'll be able to give some information as to how you can follow Jared and get in touch with him if you're interested. He's somebody who is out there. I know that you have several publications that people might want to read, including books and websites, and we'll get to all of that. And you're the editor of something called The Daily Dirt NAP, a daily market newsletter for

investment professionals, continuously published since two thousand and eight. That sounds like a very interesting piece of information on a daily basis. We'll be back with my guest Jared Dillion, and your phone calls right after this break up night Side with Dan Ray.

Speaker 1

On Boston's News Radio.

Speaker 2

My guest is Jared Dillion. An amazing resume, a wide variety of interests and professional activity. Wall Street, outside on Wall Street, outside of Wall Street. Graduate of the US Coast Guard Academy, BS and Math and Computer Sciences, from the University of San Francisco, Masters in Business Administration, Concentration and Finance, where he earned an NBA Award for the highest Academic average average. And from the Savannah College of Art and Design in twenty thirty three with a Master

of Fine Arts and Writing. That's quite a resume, folks, Jared Dillion is our guest. Your phone calls are welcome, and I'm looking more for questions. Okay, let me go to George in Bridgewater. George, welcome you first this hour one Night Side with Jared Dillion. Go ahead, George.

Speaker 4

Oh thanks, thank you very much. Sain Jared, Jared, I have a couple of questions for you, you know. And the more I play in the sock market a little so I signed into Yahoo Finance for the sports and see how much sucks to do it. But I heard today that the ten year yield was up fourteenth points and the thirty year yield was up eight points, and they were talking about the use the term this could be a blow up in the capital market.

Speaker 2

Did we lose George there, Yes, I think so.

Speaker 3

But I kind of know where he's going and I can kind of comment on that.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Suregard, Yeah, we did lose. A matter of fact, we lost a couple of callers. So well, I hope we haven't got a problem with our phones coming back at us here. So let's uh, let's keep our fingers crossed. If you're on the line and you dropped off, all callback folks will get you on. We have had occasionally some technical difficulties here. So George, you stay there, we'll try to get an answer for you. Go right ahead, George, go right ahead, Jared, I'm.

Speaker 3

Sorry, yeah. So what's what? There's some really weird stuff has been happening in the markets. You know, for the most part, bonds are inversely correlated with stocks, so when stocks go down, bonds go up and interest rates go down. So what George was talking about is interest rates have gone up a lot in the last couple of days, which makes no sense at all. You would not expect interest rates to go up while the stock market is crashing. That never happens. So what people are speculating, and I

actually agree with this. You know, China is the owner of eight hundred billion dollars in treasury bonds, and you know, we implement one hundred and twenty percent tariffs on China exclusively, and China says, well, forget you. We are going to start selling your treasury bonds. We're going to sell fifty billion and drive interest rates up, which is the exact opposite of what Scott Beston is trying to do best, trying to lower interest rates.

Speaker 2

That is what China and Japan were doing last night. If I'm not mistaken, they were, they were they were dumping treasury bonds.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean we don't know for sure, Like it's I mean, you can't you can't tell, but I mean the timing is so suspicious, like it really it almost has to be China that was doing it.

Speaker 2

So so explain to the audience, if you would, Jared by doing that, and China is an effect retaliating in a different way, what are they trying to accomplish by dumping treasury bonds?

Speaker 3

Well, I mean, really, what they're trying to do is cause a recession or exacerbator recession. You know, if interest rates go up, then mortgage rates go up, and car loan rates go up, and every interest rate in the country goes up, the cost of borrowing goes up, and which tightens tightens the economy and makes it difficult for

consumers to borrow money. And that's bad, you know, that's that's you know, And China has you know, and if they sold fifty billion, you know, they still have another seven hundred and fifty billion they can continue to sell bonds.

Speaker 2

So what what can chairm and Powell do to offset that or would he have to stand aside and say that is a part of a political action, that is the chairman of the FED an interesting to get involved in.

Speaker 3

There's really there's nothing that the FED can do about this there, Yeah, there's nothing that they can do. The only thing I will say is is that you're seeing a pretty big recovery in the bond market. Overnight. Thirty year bond yields actually got to five percent. And you know, when yields get high enough, they start looking attractive to people and you'll see buyers come in. Uh. And that's actually what you're seeing tonight.

Speaker 4

You know.

Speaker 3

I'm sitting here at my desk and I have a couple of computer screens with futures all over them, and I'm sitting here looking at bond futures and they're up one in twelve thirty seconds over nine, which is a really big move. So percent right, yeah, yeah, okay, all.

Speaker 2

Right, George is back. George. I know we lost you there. I apologize for that. Did you hear most of what Jared had to say?

Speaker 4

Yeah? I sure did, And that was I said, I have two questions, and it's just China and Japan roll in US debt.

Speaker 2

Uh.

Speaker 4

You know, I know that China is secretly selling US debt. Japan sells sixty two billion in the third quarter of twenty twenty twenty four. If these countries boy caught US deaths TOWUS the US Treasury treasury to offer higher yields, wouldn't it, Jarret?

Speaker 2

Uh?

Speaker 3

Yeah? So what what's what's going to happen is is that, you know, the prevailing market interest rate is going to go up. We actually have a thirty year bond auction tomorrow. We're going to auction off about thirty billion and thirty year bonds which are going to be at a higher interest rate than if China hadn't done that. So what they've effectively done is raise borrowing costs for the US government and interest expense.

Speaker 4

Oh okay, yeah that worries me, especially John. I'm not sure about your pen, but I mean, I really got a lot. You've been on the Dan Ray shield tonight.

Speaker 3

Thank you very much, Yre, Thank you appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks Jeorge, you Dan appreciate you.

Speaker 3

Come.

Speaker 2

Let's go to Frank and Burlington. Frank you next on nights. I grow it ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, how you doing, guys.

Speaker 2

We're doing great? Say ahead to Jared Dillion and what's your question of comment?

Speaker 4

Hi?

Speaker 5

So my question is, so stocks we're trading at nineteen times forward earnings at the low when it was at thirty six to three on the Dow, and it was trading sixteen point eight forward earnings at the high in twenty nineteen. Stocks are wildly overvalued as it is, they were looking for a reason to pull back. I don't think Donald Trump should be making policy based on what the stock market is doing. So my question is what

is the purpose? I disagree with a lot of what he's doing, but I'd rather him follow through on it than basically go halfway and then pull back and then go back. It's the lack of clarity that's roiling markets and that's roiling the economy. So my question is is he looking to make tariffs a source of primary revenue and bring income taxes down and basically collect revenue off of tariffs, or is he looking to bring manufacturing back or both. Whether that works or not is not really

relevant to my question. I'm just trying to figure out what he's doing and what the markets. I mean, Marcus go off, Marcus go down. If you don't like it, don't invest but you shouldn't be making policy based on the markets. Fifty six percent of what companies have raised since twenty six have gone to buybacks, five has gone to R and D, so the markets are wildly inflated. I don't worry about that. I just want to know what's the purpose of what he's doing.

Speaker 2

Okay. One of the purpose that I think some people are speculating is that he with the tariffs, he's hoping to bring the national debt down from thirty seven trillion dollars. But that's a whole bunch of questions there for you, Jared, so blen't you untangle that with Those are great.

Speaker 3

Questions, Yeah, for sure. So first of all, you know Trump intervening in the markets today. Yes, stocks are still overvalued, and yes nobody should feel sorry for hedge fund managers who are losing money. But you know, the market was down about twenty percent. If it had gone down another ten percent, if it was down about thirty percent, then you really have financial stability risks.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 3

That's when things start to blow up. That's when banks fail, that's when asset managers fail, that's when liquidity DIDs. So even though stocks are overvalued. I mean, we really have an interest in keeping financial market stability. So I think that was you know, I think Bessett was in his ear and said, look like it's getting pretty ugly out there, like we have to do something or it's going to get worse.

Speaker 5

Go ahead, Frank oh so so yeah, I mean the financial liquidity in terms of stability of the overall financial sector being at risk. I don't think that's really what it was. I think it was more just reacting to the four oh one ks, and I think he stated that, oh, people were getting a little scared. I mean, there's other ways to offset what you were talking about, But I mean,

I don't know if we were at that point. I don't think this is a two thousand and eight where fundamentally what's happening on Main Street drove what's happening on Wall Street. I don't think it works in the verse necessarily. So I think this was more just because of people's four oh one kids, which if you're not retiring in the next five ten years, I don't think you should really worry about it anyway, and if you are, you should really be rebalanced into a safer, more stable funds.

So I don't think we were at that point. I think the FED has a lot of tools they don't want to deploy, and I don't think they should at this point. I think they should just lay back and see how things go. But I think the FED is there if we need them if things get really bad. But I just think he should follow through on his policies and basically see it through. I don't think he should react based on markets, which I don't know if

we're doing. I don't really think he was based on financial stability.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I don't know if either of you heard the comments the President made this afternoon, but at some point, and I don't know if either of you picked up on this, but he almost sort of like went into sort of a golf analogy, and he said a lot of people were getting a little yippie, and the yips is a golf term for yeah, for folks who are a little older and maybe they're they're hunting, they get a little nervous and putting and all of that. And I don't know did either of you pick that up.

It was like it was somehow it was like his mind was on golf as opposed.

Speaker 3

To Chuck Chuck novel Yankees, different.

Speaker 2

Different thing. He could couldn't go from second base. Yeah, but the Yips were associated with call but yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's another good example too. And Knoblock wasn't the only one there's been. There's been a few pictures. Who have they had what was called Steve blast disease, you know, couldn't couldn't get the ball over the plate a picture for the Pirates many years ago. Hey, Frank, great questions. I'm so impressed by my calls, as I often am.

Thanks Frank. We'll see what happens. Where do you think it's going to end up from? Thank you, Frank?

Speaker 5

Well, so, I think see so. I think that it depends on who's who he's listening to. If he's listening to Peter Navarro, who's a die hard. Uh, basically, I'm not a free trader. Free trade has ruined everything. Naw so was the worst thing ever. And I think that this is really just a pause. And I don't think I don't think he can negotiate seventy five different deals

with seventy five different countries. I mean, that's violating most Favored Nation status anyway, in terms of the wto but I mean, we're pretty much passed international law at this point. But I mean, I think he's gonna follow through. I think he's gonna follow through, and I think he's gonna I think he's trying to bring manufacturing back. I think he's trying to reorder the economy. Whether that's possible or not is another story. And I think he's trying to

make it a source of revenue. So I think he's gonna see it through. I don't think he's gonna backtrack completely.

Speaker 2

All right, Thank you, Frank, big big step back today, though nonetheless kind of surprised me. Thanks Frank, appreciate it. I guess is Jared Dillion. He is talking about the decision by the president today to delay the imposition of the terrorists by ninety days. Obviously was good for the market. The market today had a huge jump. If you'd like to comment or ask a question of a gentleman who

has knows this stuff inside and out. Six one seven, two, five, four ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty. We may have had a little bit of a yips in our phone system here, Rob. I think so anybody who was on and got dropped off feel free to jump on back. We're gonna hold Jared in just until eleven o'clock and let him enjoy the rest of his evening. Uh. I am really appreciative of the time he spent and the explanations that he has provided. This has been a

really good hour. We'll be and we'll continue to be right after this break.

Speaker 1

You're on Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's news radio.

Speaker 2

My guest is Jared Dillion, writer, traded musician, entrepreneur, and educator. So he said, a true renaissance man. Real quickly Jared with the response. Today it was a huge day in the market. I think it. It was reported that the Nasdaq had its biggest increase in twenty five years. I mean, it's an amazing uh turnaround. Whether it's a blip or something more in the direction, I'm assuming that the rest of this week has to be quieter than today. I

would hope. Do you see any way that the market between now and the weekend is going to continue this? I don't think it continued the pace going up or reverse its up. There has to be a moment where everybody takes a breath through. Am I reading it wrongly?

Speaker 4

No.

Speaker 3

So have you heard of the VIX, the volatility index?

Speaker 2

Yes, okay, pretty much. Ye.

Speaker 3

So basically, what the VIX is, it's a it's a measure of option prices and it's a measure of volatility in the market. The VIX was above fifty this morning. Yeah, yeah, it was close to sixty, and now I think it's down about thirty or high twenties or something like that. So what the VIX is telling you is that traders are anticipating less volatility. The vics absolutely got smashed today. You know, option prices came way down. I actually was trading that myself. So yeah, it's I think I think

the worst is behind us. It's still going to be valdol Uh. It's it's going to be nothing like you know, the quiet times that we experienced in twenty twenty four. But it'll be quieter now.

Speaker 2

How can folks follow you again? You're the editor of the Daily Dirt napp. Is this something that is put out and is available or is this all subscription based? I know that you have some some recent books out. I suspect a lot of people would like to at least keep in touch with you, and well, we will keep in touch with you. Is the Daily Dirt NP available or is that? Is that subscriber based?

Speaker 3

It's subscriber based. So I have a number of publications at a website called Jareddillionmoney dot com. Okay, So at Jaredillion Money dot com there is the Daily Dirt and app. There's a few other newsletters. We actually have educational courses. We have a Bond masterclass, which teaches you about how bonds work. We literally just came out with an options masterclass last week. So lots of stuff at jareddillionmoney dot com. You should check it out.

Speaker 2

Okay, So Jared J A R. E. D. Dillion D I L L I A N Money dot com. And some of it is subscription, but some of it is available for whoever wants to go on there. Uh. And I gotta tell you that my audience has some pretty good questions. We've we've been dealing with this now for five nights in a row, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and tonight. Very different tone tonight for certain, much more relaxed and positive. I mean last night it was getting really tough there.

Quick final question for me, as you look at the people that President Trump has surrounded himself with in terms of the financial team, the economy team. Give me your analysis of Peter Navarro. I am not impressed. And I know that Navarro is very loyal. Was one of these guys that went to jail, smart guy, grew up in this area. Is he at this point you think going to be pushed aside? He's the trade advisor.

Speaker 3

Right, Yeah, So Navarrow I think is going to lose influence over time. Scott Bessen is is, uh, you know, orders of magnitude smarter than Nabarrow. So I think I think Navarrow isn't gonna last six months.

Speaker 2

But you know, Navarro was.

Speaker 3

A Democrat for many years. He ran for Congress out in San Diego back in the early nineties under a no growth platform. He was against economic growth, and he hasn't fundamentally changed over the years. Like he's not a capitalist, he's not a free market guy. He has he has a poisonous influence on the president. I don't like him at all. So, you know, I really this shift towards you know, getting rid of tariffs on other countries except

for China. Bessen is the architect of that. And you know, I think we're not going to hear much from to borrow in the future.

Speaker 2

And then my last question is it was there was a joke earlier this week that I guess they put a tariff on a couple of uninhabited islands in the South Pacific. How does something like that happen at the White House? I mean that that that sort of says to me amateur.

Speaker 3

Alan actually believe it or not? I heard about that. That's not unreasonable. So one of the reasons they did that, and I'm sure you heard this, is so they didn't they didn't want countries using those islands as a loophole to get around the tariffs. Right, So you might think of it as kind of nonsensical or overkill, but there actually was a purpose behind it.

Speaker 2

So yeah, all right, well that I've never heard that that analysis, but it makes it makes a point. I assume there's a lot of uninhabited islands in the world. I really enjoyed this hour, Jared, Thank you so much, and I want to thank the gentleman who put you and me in contact today, Chris Berry. It was it was a really good hour, and you make this conversation fun. Uh maybe fun. I should have had you on one of the one of the bad nights. But thank you

so much. I'd love to keep in touch again. Jared Dillion J A R. E. D. Dillion d I L L I A N Money dot Com. Thanks again. I hope to have you back.

Speaker 3

Thanks Jared, thank you appreciate it.

Speaker 2

You bet you all right? When we come back, we're going to get your reaction last night, it was kind of a funeral parler. Uh, well tonight. You know, we're not out of the woods yet here, but I think we're going. We went in the right direction today. Let's talk about it. Coming back right after the eleven o'clock news on Nightside, I'll open the lines up. It's just you and me between now and midnight. Fill them up.

Six one, seven, two, five, four ten thirty or six one seven, nine three one ten thirty

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