It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Boston's news Radio.
Thanks very much, Dan Watkins, welcome back everyone to our second hour on nine o'clock hour here on Wednesday night, June eleventh, and delighted to be joined this hour by Aiden Enwright. Aiden is economic research associate at the Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research. I think most of you know that I've had several guests on from the Pioneer Institute to say it's a financial think tank and it has a couple of reports coming out, both of which
are concerning, I think substantially concerning. To be really honest with you, and I hope, I hope that some of you will participate. It's always difficult to talk about numbers on the radio, so just sit back and listen and take this in and then we can we can talk about it. Aiden En, right, welcome back to Nightside. How are you, sir?
Hi Dan, Thanks for having me on again.
Let's start with the clearer, cleaner example that we want to talk about, and that is the fact that since the COVID pandemic struck in twenty twenty, since then, we have lost here in Massachusetts thirty thousand jobs First of all, that's an incredible number of jobs to lose at any point in time. Can we write that off and say, well, that's the consequence of the pandemic.
I don't really think so. You know, if we looked at how we're comparing to other states, pretty much almost every single other state in the country has returned to pre pandemic employment levels and beyond. Massachusetts is one of only four other states that have lost jobs since twenty twenty, and that's detrimental to the state.
Who are the other states that have lost jobs? I mean, there are fifty states in the Union. Massachusetts is one. We're down about thirty thousand. These are private sector jobs.
Correct, Yeah, these are just private sector jobs, so we're not talking about government jobs. The other states that have also lost employment one is Vermont, the other is Hawaii partially due to you know, reductions and tourism during the pandemic, and then the last one is Iowa.
So for us to lose thirty thousand private sector jobs, are they high paying jobs that? Do we have any way of tracking as to what type of jobs we're bleeding we're losing?
Yeah?
The one thing I go into in the report that's going to be out is that there's an industry breakdown in the jobs that we're losing. Some are quote unquote lower skills, lower paying, like retail or transportation. We lost about twenty seven thousand retail jobs, but they're also in some sect high growth and are typically high growth and high wage sectors as well. In manufacturing, we've lost over
that thirteen thousand jobs. In information, we've lost an additional seven one thousand, and most concertingly to me, since twenty twenty two, we've lost about eleven thousand jobs and what's called the professional, scientific and Technical services center sector, and basically that kind of what's included in that sector are say like biopharma research and development firms and other tech related jobs.
Okay, now thirty thousand, So we've obviously, when you say we've lost twenty thousand here or ten thousand there, there are also some jobs that have filled in the gap. I mean, again, I don't want to get too much in the weeds here, but if we're losing thirty thousand jobs and the majority of them are retail jobs, I think you said it was twenty seven thousand retail.
Jobs, yes, twenty seven thousand.
Okay, have that's overall. So are we picking up jobs that are more than offsetting the jobs that we're losing. I mean, when you say thirty thousand jobs lost, that's a big number, and it would almost fill Fenway Park, and it would fill the Boston Ground and close to a couple of times. But are we picking up better paying jobs, you know? Or are we look or are there other statistics that would seem to indicate that we're really we're getting hurt here in Massachusetts.
No.
I mean, there are certain sectors that are a little bit more resilient to kind of economic downturns or economic uncertainty. So something might be healthcare and social assistance sector in Massachusetts, or educational services. Those have grown in employment, but they haven't grown own to the extent to offset the jobs that we've been losing in other fields.
And those those are not necessarily high paying jobs.
No, they're not necessarily high paying depend they.
Should maybe should be getting more money. But at this point, okay, so we'll focus on the jobs for another moment or two. What the headline here, and I don't want to bury the headline or bury the lead, is that there's only four states in the Union that overall have fewer jobs private sector jobs today. If we lose private sector jobs at that rate, we also might find ourselves, in my opinion, with a problem of tax revenues which would support public
sector jobs. I assume some public sector jobs are going to be impacted by whatever cuts the Trump administration makes, and then are are not subject court challenges. So it looks to me like this is a bit of a perfect storm. Or am I over am I overreacting?
Yeah?
I mean there there are several you know, cascading type effects that would happen from you know, a decline in private employment. You know, in Massachusetts, we want good, high paying jobs. You know, we want people to be able to grow up in Massachusetts and be able to start their careers and work here or start their own businesses.
You know, if we're not creating those jobs, if we're not creating those opportunities for people, you know, some young people are going to look elsewhere to put roots down. And then you know, we're also going to miss out from you know, the revenue that in taxes that those people would be proding to our local governments. That might
cost public sector jobs for the government. It might mean that there's you know, there's not as much growth in assistance programs, so it just makes the budget a bit tighter, and so you know that's another effect.
Okay, when we get back from the break, there's another study that you've done which complements this study. Pretty well. All of us have heard of the gross Domestic product the GDP. You've come up with a statistic for the gross state product, and there's not much there that is of great comfort. Let me put it like that. Well, we'll break down those numbers, we'll see that they do sort of reflect one another, and then we'll open it up to phone calls and maybe some people will be
a little bit more optimistic. Both of these reports are concerning, maybe not frightening, but they're concerning and they need to be considered in the months and the years ahead. We'll be back on Nightside. My guest is from the Pioneer Institute, which is a really solid think tank. Aiden Enwright joins us. We'll be back right after this break with more conversation.
If you're on Night Side with Dan Ray on w b Z, Boston's news radio.
We're talking with aiden Enright and the numbers that the Pioneer Institute has for us. They're not good numbers. Okay, so let's talk. We've talked about job loss, and there are only four states in the country from mont Iowa, Hawaii, and Massachusetts who have fewer jobs private sector jobs today. Do you know, off hand, aiden, if our public sector has grown during that same period of time. I suspect it has.
It has to a certain extent, not as much as some other states, but yes, it has grown.
Right. Well, I know that the most recent state budget was sixty two billion dollars, and I know it wasn't sixty or anywhere near sixty billion dollars. It was probably much more in the forties five years ago, when you know, Charlie Baker was in the midst of his second term. So I suspect that we probably have we have more public sector employees, more state employees, more municipal employees, and fewer private sector employees. That's a that's a strategy for
economic disaster. And along with that, you folks at Pioneer have done a have developed a program to judge what we call the gross state product, sort of modeled after the GDP, the gross domestic product. And it sounds to me as if we in Massachusetts are not nearly as productive as we were a few years ago. And correct me if I'm wrong. I think I've read your report accurately. We used to be, on a per capita basis, the fourth most productive state in the Union. We now have dropped.
I believe the statistics suggest to the twenty eighth most productive state. Is that correct?
So I would frame it a little bit differently Massachusetts. Yeah, sure, Massachusetts is still the second most productive state in the country, only trailing New York, but it's not growing at the same rate as other states. And so between nineteen ninety eight and twenty nineteen, Massachusetts was growing at the fourth like, it was growing at the fourth fastest rate out of
all states. But since twenty twenty that growth has slowed down, and now our growth is twenty eight fastest out of all states.
Okay, so we're this is a measurement of growth, and obviously, what do we have to do to get the growth kickstarted or or get that growth ticking up a little bit, because obviously if we keep falling behind every year, that's that's that is not doesn't augur well.
Either, Yeah, certainly, you know, during the pandemic and following it, a lot of states really kind of rethought their economic strategies for how to grow. You know, if you look at states like Florida, or Texas, or North Carolina, even New Hampshire, they've really aggressively recruited businesses. They've streamlined permitting, they've kept taxes really low, and they've built housing out to accommodate new residents into their state to continue to grow.
You know, in that time, Massachusetts, while we've made changes here and there, we've mostly stayed with the same old playbook and it's really no longer working. You know, if we want to retain our innovation economy, if we want to retain our economic growth, create good, good paying jobs, you know, we need to make some changes to make the state more affordable to attract businesses, to make it easier to start a business here. We need to make it so that we can grow the housing stocks that
people can afford to live here. It's kind of an across the board things that needs to happen.
So how have we lost our way? I mean, there was a period of time when we had a democratic legislature and from you know, going back to the time of John Volpi, and going back to the to the more recent time of Well Frank Sergeant Bill Weld, Paul Salucci, Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker, we had Republican governors and democratic legislator legislature was right now we have a democratic governor and democratic legislature, and we've been in that situation now for two and a half years. I know the Pioneer
Institute is not going to get political. I don't want you to get political on me. But I'm looking at a correlation there which says that the things need to need to get shaken up here in Massachusetts a little bit. Oh, we're going to continue to drift down. This this chart that I'm looking at the private sector per capitol real GSP growth. You know, the the we're way down. We're down at like twelve point five percent. Florida is twice
as much as we are in terms of growth. Texas is almost twice as much the national We're below the national average and growth. You know, if you take states that have a lot of problems that we don't have, Alabama, Mississippi, some of those states we may be ahead of them, but that's about the only people we're ahead of. North Carolina's ahead of us, as you mentioned, Texas, Florida. How do we turn this around?
Yeah, Well, I think one bit is that after the pandemic or during it, a lot of states decided to lower taxes on individuals, lower their tax rates in several different categories, and Massachusetts instead decided to raise taxes on wealthy or individuals. Also, during that period of time, there have been several cities and other states that have made
moves to streamline regulations related to housing development. And so while these states have done that, Massachusetts has made some incremental change, but it hasn't really had an effect on the state's housing stock. You know, between twenty eleven and twenty twenty three, we had more housing permitted in each of those years than we did in twenty twenty four.
So we're not really changing enough to kind of build out the state and make it a place for businesses and for talent and people to locate to.
My guess is, Aidenn, right, We're going to take a break here for the news at the bottom of the air if you'd like to join us, if you have thoughts on these statistics, which frankly are not are not heartening. I wouldn't call them frightening, but they are. They are concerning statistics. To me, I'd love to hear from you again. I know statistics are tough on radio, but if you follow the conversation, love to get your point of view.
Six one, seven, two, five, four to ten thirty or six one, seven, nine, three, one ten thirty back with Aiden en Wright and your calls and comments. Aiden is with the Pioneer Institute, which is a great think tank here in Massachusetts, and I just wish that our political leaders would pay a little more attention to what these reports are trying to tell them. Back on night Side after the News at the bottom of.
The hour, You're on night Side with Dan Ray. I'm w b Z, Boston's News Radio.
Okay, we have waded through the numbers, and the numbers don't lie. I mean, the numbers are there to be looked at, and I want to talk to callers. I want to give I want to give you an opportunity to challenge numbers, to say the numbers don't matter, which I think is a silly position to take. But if you want to take that position, that's fine. You cannot continue to grow the commonwealth if you're losing private sector jobs at the same time you're increasing the state budget.
It just at some point, particularly in a state where the governor is mandated constitutionally to balance the budget. And we're also in a state where the state auditor, who happens to be a Democrat by the way, is attempting to audit the state legislature, both basically most of whom are Democrats, and this saying to the state auditor, mind your own business. Guess what it's Diane Desauglio's business to audit the legislature, amongst other things. Let's go to the phones.
Let me go first off to Paul in nan Tasket down by the water's edge. Paul, welcome to night side. Your next damn, what's going on? Well, you're you're hearing some numbers here. I'd love to know what you think you're wrong with aident.
I've got a couple of things that's speaking.
The numbers whatever.
Two and a half we have the old property two.
And a half still in fact. Prop two and a half is still in effect, but it allows and has allowed every year to increase and aidens will help me out here, not necessarily to limit your property tax it limits the tax levee that the town can cumulatively announce. So let's say that that there's a property tax levee. All the property tax in your community is one hundred
million dollars. That means that a year from now, even with Prop two and a half, it can go up two and a half percent, So it can go up to one hundred and two and a half million dollars. And someone's got to pick up that additional two and a half million dollars, and in some cases it's gonna be guys like.
Yeah.
So here's the first thing. And the second thing is a lot of these city and towns are used in Chapter ninety money, which is eroads when you fixture roads and stuff. Now I find out that a lot of city in towns they can buy equipment through Chapter ninety. That's like loaders, you know, trucks that you use in the road. So instead of paving, they're buying all this
stuff without going to town meetings. And they're taking this Chapter ninety money they used to go for one hundred percent for roads and they use it to buy their own equipment. You have to see somebody sitting in town. They got the best equipment than the contractors have and no one knows how to use it.
So let's see. Let me see if Aidan wants to weigh in on that two points that Paul has made. I hope I haven't misled him on to the chapter the prop two and a half situation, everybody thought, well that my taxes can only go up two and a half percent. It's the entire levee that the town or the city actually can raise two and a half percent. So that's number one. And what about his points about the towns being able to buy the best equipment with money free money from the state.
Yeah, I think on the first point you covered that great, Dan. On the second, I don't know if I necessarily have the expertise based off of the studies to answer that particular question.
So all right, fair enough, Paul, I assume you know of what you speak.
I do.
That's why I brought it up.
You brought it up, so you.
Brought it up with a lot of conviction. I don't think my first answer probably satisfied you, but unfortunately that is the truth.
You know, And thank you Dan for having me on again.
Well, Paul, you keep calling the show, Okay, and enjoy the summer on Nantaska. Thanks so much. Thank you. That's a great one. All right, Joining us now is a candidate for governor, Brian shortly, Brian, welcome back to Night's Side. Thank you for checking in, Thank you for listening to the program. Aiden en Wright is our guest. I know you probably have some thoughts on what you've heard, but you probably knew about this ahead of time. Go right ahead.
Well, thanks for having me on, Dan and hello Aiden. I just wanted to say I think there's a lot that we can do to solve the problem of people leaving Massachusetts and businesses leaving Massachusetts.
And I think it.
Starts with electing a new governor in November of twenty twenty six. You know, as I listened to.
The conversation, I'm sure you have a candidate in mind, Brian.
I think we could use a businessman, a business builder in the corner office. And when I listened to the conversation, you know, we know why people in businesses are leaving Massachusetts. It's because taxes are too high and electricity bills are too high. Those are things a governor can effect on
day one. You know, a governor on day one could cut all those state manded fees out of the utility bill, could reduce the costs for business and individuals of utility bills, and a governor could really go to go to work
on reducing taxes and getting state spending under control. Those are things that I think, as you mentioned, we've seen Republican governors in the past, you know, like Charlie Baker, that Romney and Bill Well, and I think it's time that we bring a Republican back to the corner office.
Well, for those who do not know, Brian is one of two Republicans you and Mike Kneely are vuying for the Republican nomination. I've had both of you on in the last month or so. These studies that Pioneer has released. They're really good studies if people could take the time to read them, and it's tough to explain them Brian on the air, because it's numbers and you don't have the visual aspect on radio that you do have on television.
How much would you be relying upon if you're fortunate enough to be elected governor on some of the work that the Pioneer Institute does, particularly as it relates.
To well aident pioneer, do incredible work. But I would tell you there's a family behind every statistic. Every time a company closes because they can't operate here, that's someone losing a job. It's someone who can't put food on the table, and often it's a young person leaving the state, you know, And that means we've got parents like me, I've got young kids. You know, got parents and grandparents who are losing their loved ones, losing their kids and
their grandkids to other states. So I think behind these statistics, it's really a story of our young people leaving. We've got to keep our young people here, and it starts with building a private sector economy that can grow in scale. At the end of the day, the mark of a successful state is a private sector economy that's growing. That means people want to be here in businesses want.
To be here.
If you're if you're shedding private sector jobs, it means you're not a good place to do business. And behind those statistics, you know, are a lot of families that are that are feeling the pain on companies closing, and a lot of parents and grandparents that are seeing their loved ones and their children in some cases moving to
other states. And I think we can turn all that around with a much more business oriented approach to cutting taxes, cutting feet, and getting our private sector grown again.
Well, the report that really struck me in Again, I'm a fairly I'm a numbers guy, but when Aiden points out that since twenty twenty, as most other states have recaptured the jobs that were lost as a result of the pandemic, and a lot of those jobs were in hospitality and as we know, but Massachusetts is now down thirty thousand jobs. Those are thirty thousand taxpayers that are not contributing to the to the tax base, and there's only four states. I was stunned, and Aiden, I assume this.
I want to get you involved here as well. This is a statistic which has to be stunning even to Governor Healy to think that since twenty twenty, we're down thirty thousand jobs and there's only three other states Vermont, Hawaii, which I was impacted badly by tourism in Iowa, and I have no idea why Iowa is involved in this, but those are the only four states that are down jobs since twenty twenty. And I'm stunned by that, Brian, I assume you were aware of that.
Well I am. I am stunned by it as well. And I'll tell you another statistic, which Pioneer has done a great job over the years tracking, is the amount of income moving out of the state. The most recent figure we saw on that, which is the twenty twenty two number, is four billion dollars of income left the state.
That's an IRS statistic. More, heally ran on the largest tax increase in state history in twenty twenty two, which was the millionaire's tax, And since the day that millionaire tax came in, we have an added a single private sector job. And I expect when the numbers come out for twenty twenty three, we will have seen again billions of dollars of income leaving the state. Five hundred people
a week leaving the state. Those are very very real numbers, and there's a family, there's a human being behind every one of them. But I think these are major issues that we need a new governor to really focus on and get the state growing again.
And by the way, not that this is the most importance, but for those of you out there who were sports fans, when I talked last hour with Kevin Paul DuPont of The Boston World Great hockey writer. You know when a Brad marsh On who's now playing for Florida looks at
the possibility of coming back to Massachusetts. All of these great players in whether it's hockey, basketball, football, or baseball, once they get to those earning years after've been in the league for a few years, and the team then has to give them the opportunity to go out in the free market. All the Boston based teams are going to be a tremendous disadvantage, particularly with a lot of these states like Tennessee and Texas and Florida, which don't
have state income taxes. So you're going to say that the same player that you're offering a ten million dollar contract to, oh yeah, it's gonna cost you an extra nine hundred thousand dollars to play in Massachusetts, where you know you won't have to pay any of that if you're playing in Texas or Tennessee or Florida, Mark my words,
that is gonna that's gonna come home and hurt. These teams better continue to develop guys in the farm system like the Red Sox are doing, who get to play those first three or four years, you know, under a very limited contract. Brian, You're always welcome here, you know that. Thank you very much for listening tonight and joining the conversation. Final comment for you, Brian, and I also want to
give Aidan a last quick comment. We'll take some more phone calls Aidan and I will, but Brian, what's your final word? And also I want to thank you.
I'm a regular listener. It's a great show. And for those that are is in my campaign, please check out my website at Brian Shortsleeve dot com.
Thank you all right, Brian, Thank you very much. Aidan. I want to continue our conversation with callers. I am concerned about this this report. I want to also give people an opportunity. I assumed this will be in newspapers tomorrow because I believe it's been released. Both of these reports have been released today. Have you talked tonight with either the Globe, of the Herald or any of the other newspapers around the carm Wall.
Yeah, so the report will be released tomorrow. I've also talked with the Globe about it, so there should be a piece in the in the in the business section.
But yeah, okay, so they may either be in tomorrow's paper or in Friday's paper. We'll take a quick break. My guest is Aiden Enwright. He's with the Pioneer Institute. We're talking about two studies that Pioneer has just released, which shows one that Massachusetts over the last five years has lost a lot of jobs and maybe those jobs are not coming back or coming back anytime soon. At a time, we're down about thirty thousand private sector jobs. We are we are probably up in public sector jobs,
but down in private sector jobs. And also what is called the the growth uh the of the state product the GSP, as opposed that the GDP in Massachusetts is falling backwards. Its growth is slowing down, which is reflective of the loss of jobs. If you'd like to join the conversation, I got wide open lines six, one, seven, two, five, four ten, thirty, six one, seven, nine, three, one, ten thirty. I know numbers are tough, but numbers really are important
because they have an impact. As Brian Shortsleeve said on families and families are leaving Massachusetts. That does not argue well for the future. Back with Aiden Enwright of the Pioneer Institute and your calls or questions or it's coming back right after.
This Night Side with Dan Ray on Boston's news radio.
My guess is, aiden En Wright, let's get back to the phone call. Let me go to Jim in the car. Jim, you were next on Night Side with aiden enright goright ahead, Jim.
Hi, I just wanted to say I really enjoyed your conversation with.
Gentlemen running for.
The governor Republican nomination, and I would love to have Charlie Baker a like person orned Rodney like person as governor of the state of Massachusetts, because I think they would be great for the economy. But Charlie Baker did not run because he came out against the January sixth riots and against Trunt's denial of the election. And that is why we do not have Charlie Baker as the governor right now.
And Charlie Baker ran twice, was elected by times, and he had a job offer for eleven million dollars from the NCAA. I don't think that, Charle. I think Charlie Baker felt that he had served as governor for two terms eight years uh, and he was going to move on. Jim. To be honest, with you. I I know that that Baker was not a Trump guy. I got that, and I don't think.
That he did not. But I disagree. I mean, I he from reporting, I heard he did not run because he would not get the Republican nominations or Yeah, I gotta.
Be honest with you. I think that the Massachusetts Republican Party, if they had had the opportunity, would have renominated Charlie Baker.
That's the reporting.
And I agree, Oh, fine, you know you you rely on your reporters. Feel free to rely on your reporters. I know Baker, I know him pretty well. And uh, and I'm pretty confident that that eleven million dollar contract, that annual contract for eleven million dollars was a lot more than he was making as governor of Massachusetts, unless you know, I think he had a right after having served two terms to take a big paycheck. I got
to keep running. I'm not going to argue with the gym over whether or not charge.
I agree one thing. On the economy though, with the funding that Trump is going to withhold from Harvard, it's going to make the four billion in bost income or high income jobs seemed like peanuts, and that was going for cancer research.
Okay, well again, call me some night and we'll you and I can just trash Trump. That's not my purpose tonight. Okay, we can, you know, feel free to call me and and and we can engage in a Trump trashth on you and I thanks to appreciate the call. Okay, let's keep rolling. You're going to go to Christopher and Hero. Christopher. You got to be very quick. We got less than a minute left, Christopher, go right ahead.
Yeah, I just uh, Dan just wanted to say, you know, first on caller, a long time listener, thank you. I'm I'm in my forties.
I've been in the.
I've been in the IT field for last eighteen years. Was working for a biotech firm and ended up subsequently being pushed out of the out of the company and you know, for a managed service provider that was coming in at a lot cheaper and with the way the economy is right now, I've been out of the IT field unfortunately for the last year, since since last April. And yeah, it's just I'm seeing, you know, colleagues of
minor are also in the same boat. That's just it seems like the you know, especially the IT field, I think is over overly saturated. So I'm just not what what did you do?
What did you do in it? Specifically? Christopher?
So I was handling. I was an IT manager, So I was handling all of the infrastructure for the company that I was working for, or so everything from deploying of systems to managing users and.
Real quickly here, what I'm going to do is I want to ask you to leave your phone number with Andrew. Sure, what sort of a salary are you looking for?
I you know I was in the eighty to ninety range, was where I was at previously?
And what's your education level?
I have an associates in computer science and several several certifications with Microsoft.
Leave leave your name. Leave your name and your phone number, daytime phone number with Andrew. And if there's anyone out there who would like to talk with you. You sound like a great guy, well qualified, and they want to call the station, we have your permission to pass your name on.
Yeah, definitely fair enough.
You talked to Andrew. Leave your phone number and your last name and a daytime phone number. Who knows, maybe we can help Christopher get back employed in the private You just don't know a and then Wright, thank you for your time. Those of you who are calling, we're a little late. We're going to go to a different topic, a different guest right after the ten o'clock news. Wish y'all called a little earlier. Aiden, please keep in touch. Love what Pioneer does, and I love what you do.
And again, numbers are tough, but you do a great job and I appreciate you taking the time tonight.
Aidan, Okay, Yeah, thanks for having me.
Dan.
Absolutely, we'll have you back when we get back on talk with a Polster Suffolk poster Dave Paley Logus about a poll that has shown us shown to us that again Donald Trump is not particularly well liked in New England voters New Hampshire specifically Massachusetts and Rhode Island. But the Democrats aren't taking advantage of that situation. So I'm hoping that Jim in the car is paying attention, particularly to my guests, to coming up. Dave Paleologus