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A Close Race...

Oct 31, 202437 min
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Episode description

How close is the 2024 presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris? A recent Suffolk University poll shows that both candidates are deadlocked in the battleground state of Michigan. In addition, another recent Suffolk University poll shows the candidates nearly tied in the battleground state of Wisconsin. David Paleologos, the Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center joined us to discuss their poll results!

Ask Alexa to play WBZ NewsRadio on #iHeartRadio and listen to NightSide with Dan Rea Weeknights From 8PM-12AM!

Transcript

Speaker 1

It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Constance Video.

Speaker 2

In just a moment, we will introduce you, reintroduce you to friend Dave Paleologus. We had Spencer Kimball with us last night and Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University tonight, and we're kind of drilling down on polling up specifically political polling. And it's not often you can get a double play combination of Kimball and Paleo Logus and back to back night. So consider yourself lucky, you know, I consider myself very lucky here. And if you have questions for Dave Paleologus.

Speaker 3

You can line them up right now.

Speaker 2

But before we do that, got to give away a couple of tickets here. As we are gonna give away two tickets every night right after the nine o'clock news. You need to be calling number ten right now six one, seven, nine, three, one ten thirty will win two tickets to Celtic Thunder at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish music sensations Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info and tickets are

available at Foxwoods dot com. All you have to be is caller number ten, and I will remind you Dan, our producer is simply going to answer the phone call a one, call a two, call of three and move right through it. Uh and he will only let us know when we have caller number ten and you can call back.

Speaker 3

So if you're.

Speaker 2

Lucky enough to get through at call he number three, call back, you just have to land. It's almost like a case of musical chairs here on night Side. Do not call on any other number because the only number that we're going to be answer writing right now. If you want to talk to Dave Pale Logus, you call him the regular number which is six one seven, two, five four to ten thirty, but the number now six

one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Call on number ten will win two tickets to see Celtic Thunder next week at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish music sensations. Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info tickets available at Foxwoods dot com. So as soon as we get the number and I can see that, the phone lines will lit up very quickly coming right down to it.

So it's probably I would say, I'm going to hear pretty quickly from Dan that he has a uh, that he has the tenth caller within a matter of a few just got a winner right now, So you can stop calling. We'll be back tomorrow night, right after the nine o'clock news with another pair of tickets, and another pair on Friday night. But we have our winter tonight, so you can stop calling. Six one, seven, nine three. Dave Paley Logus, Welcome back to Nightside.

Speaker 3

How are you.

Speaker 4

I'm wow, great to be here.

Speaker 3

This is showtime for you. Huh.

Speaker 2

This is uh, this is the week that we've all been waiting for five days or whatever. It is Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and then it's showtime.

Speaker 4

Oh yeah, I remember at the beginning of this year, you know, thinking, oh, six months, I have to do all of these polls and everything. Am I ever going to get through it? And here it is next Tuesday.

Speaker 2

We talked with your colleague, uh, and he was He said that that you're was you were his mentor. He was with you at Suffolk for a while. He's out in his own now is an Emerson Polster, and he was going through how you folks have had to adapt to technology, technical changes we no longer you know, look at calling people on.

Speaker 3

Telephones and all of that.

Speaker 2

How tough is it to call these races, particularly a presidential race, accurately? How tough is it to do that? Has it become easier with technology or more difficult?

Speaker 4

I think it's become more difficult. You know, the technology is terrific in terms of reaching a lot of potential voters, but it's getting a complete you know. I mean, some surveys are fifteen minutes long. People don't have that long in their own lives to spend on a phone call. But I mean we're you know, when we release a national pull of a thousand respondents, we probably have to call twenty five thirty thousand households to get the right

one thousand. That is the right proportion of all the demographics geography, age, gender, and political party affiliation, all of that. So it's more about getting the proportions right as it is doing a poll of ten thousand people five hundred people.

Speaker 2

Okay, so let's assume you start out right, and what do you do? You take a wave of you know a couple thousand people, and at that point, when you're starting fresh, you need certain percentage of men, certain percentage women, Democrats, Republicans, independents, different ethnic backgrounds, different states. I assume it's like filling in dots on a map.

Speaker 3

Or am I oversimplifying it?

Speaker 4

Yeah, No, it is. It is. Every poster has a

different methodology. What we do is we set parameters by geography, and then what we'll do is we'll divide whether we're calling nationally or particular state into regions, and then within those regions, we fill buckets of demographics that most accurately reflect what we believe will be game conditions on election day in this election, and part of it is based on historical trends twenty twenty exit polls and so on, and then we kind of mix in with that current

movements both by the census and people migrating from one area to another, and different demographic changes that may occur since the last presidential election. And when you add it all up, it comes out right. If the proportions are right, it comes out right. And that's the most difficult part, you know, is to make sure that you've got the correct apustion of whites, black, old, young, Democrats, Republicans and

so on. And you know it's once you get it set, once the planning of what we call the sample frame is completed, then the phoning just kind of flows. You know, we monitor the first night, make sure that the calls are being done correctly, the skips are right on the questionnaire, and it just kind of it rolls for two or three days in the field, and then we gather the data back and we presented and published the results.

Speaker 2

Now, Spencer Kimber last night said they no longer use people, They're using computers.

Speaker 3

Are you still people based or we are?

Speaker 4

Yeah, we are. It's more expensive, and I know Spencer has got a little bit of a tighter budget, and his methodology is mixed. It's online panels and it's either our methodology. They do use some live caller, but it's small percent. We have always used live callers, professional phone banks.

We continue to use live calls. It doesn't mean that that's a better methodology than someone else's polling, but we found it to be pretty good and in terms of the accuracy, it's it's worked out well for Suffolk, Okay.

Speaker 2

It's worked out very well for Suffolk And by the way, just so people understand, you do much more than political polling, give us an idea of the scope of your operation.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 4

So, we do a lot of policy research and we do some creative polling that a lot of a lot of other institutes don't do. And you know, we've done just like exclusive polls of black voters only in Michigan and Pennsylvania this year, the only research out there that did that. We did an exclusive pole of Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada anticipating some of some of the recent demographic trends. That was unique. We've pulled the French

France election a couple of cycles ago, done. We've done issues like when the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and there were teahouses in New York that were being vandalized, Russian tea houses because people were upset at Russia for the invasion. It was a student inspired research. We actually polled five hundred Russian Americans in the US and five hundred Ukrainian Americans in the US, and we've determined that there was

not a lot of difference. Both subsets didn't like Putin, didn't like Russia, and were more or less pro Ukrainian. So we've used the research in many ways to differentiate ourselves. We also do city view polls of urban areas on police and racism and other urban issues. So we're using our platform to really get into the space.

Speaker 2

I would assume that a lot of Russians who would be in this country are in this country because they don't like Putin.

Speaker 4

Exactly, if you.

Speaker 2

Don't like Putin and you're in Russia, it's probably a tough place to live. My guest today, pale Logus, Dave, I want to ask you a little bit.

Speaker 3

I know that you've just have some poles.

Speaker 2

You've got some poles either coming out tomorrow or came out earlier today, different states. If I recall from our conversation of earlier this week and might correct on that.

Speaker 4

Yeah, So Monday we released Wisconsin. We had Trump up by one in Wisconsin, and we released a Wisconsin bell Weather area, which a lot of the local people here and know from Suffolk pass polling. We not only do the state wide pole, which everybody does, we do the bell Weather area, which was dor County, and Harris actually did a little bit better in the bell Weather in door County than she did in the statewide Today we

released Michigan. Michigan was a dead even race. Harris was up one in that Bellwether Kent County, and Friday were releasing Pennsylvania.

Speaker 2

Okay, I noticed that today five thirty eight dropped Trump's chances from fifty four to fifty three out of one hundred down to fifty one. I'd like to I know you're not associated with five thirty eight, but your polls are taken in consideration by then. It sounds to me like your polls might have had an influence in that that decision by five poin fifty eight. Did I read that correctly?

Speaker 4

Yeah? They did. They did. They do use our polls, and they incorporated that they obviously didn't expect us to have Michigan. Even a lot of the polls have Trump winning Michigan, but it is a coin flip right now, and he very well could win it, but because it is a margin of error race. But that poll did

impact their five thirty eight rating. And in addition to that, CNN dropped a couple of polls today, both in Wisconsin and Michigan, showing Harris winning by between five and six points which was really vastly different than all of the polling, especially the ones showing Trump leading. So that kind of throw a monkey wrench into their model.

Speaker 2

Yeah, certainly, nothing like some surprises at the end. Will take a break if folks would like to join the conversation with Dave Paleologus six one, seven, two, five, four to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty, and we'll we'll break down some of these states and get some sense as to where no one's going to be able to predict it for you, but you can probably read between the lines or listen to what you hear Dave Paleologus say and pick up some interesting insights.

Speaker 3

Back on Nightside right after this.

Speaker 1

Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.

Speaker 2

Dave were a little short here on time to the news, so I'm going to hold off the calls and to right after the news and we will get to the calls immediately. Can do you have some time to take some calls, By the way, I don't want to be presentable.

Speaker 4

Absolutely, absolutely great.

Speaker 2

Thank you so much so. This race, I was hoping for a decisive win for either one of the candidates, because I think if we have to go through what we went through in twenty twenty again with a close race and all sorts of protestations and arguments and all that, it looks to me like what I'm hearing you say is that there's no chance that this is going to be a big, easy win for either one of these candidates.

Speaker 3

This is going to go down to the wire. It sounds to me like what you're telling me. Now, Am I reading you correctly?

Speaker 4

If the polls are accurate, you're yes. But if there is a polling miss across the board by even two or three points, Kamalin Harris could sweep or Trump could sweep. So it really will depend on the sort of the aggregate of the polling averages in each of the states.

Speaker 2

Okay, I got a quick question in the past. In twenty sixteen and even in twenty twenty, Trump did better than he was polling every once I think familiar with the numbers. You know, Joe Biden was ahead of him by a certain percentage points in certain states. Hillary Clinton was even further ahead of him. Is there a hidden Trump vote out there that you folks cannot calculate or have you been able to figure out how to work that into these numbers.

Speaker 4

Well, it wasn't twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Part of the reason was that all of the pollsters weren't factoring in education level. People with less than a college degree disproportionately support Trump, people with a college degree or better

disproportionately support the Democratic nominee for president. I think the polling community caught up in twenty twenty, but they didn't include what we call the recall question, which is who did you vote for in the last election, Which means, if you have a poll today, h and you ask the recall question, who did you vote for in twenty twenty, and it's fifteen points higher for Biden or for Trump, you know that the polling subsample is wrong, and so

pulses need to adjust for that. If you include both the educational the correct proportions of educational attainment, and the recall question from the previous election, you'll probably do a pretty good job calling the race.

Speaker 2

So then you think that there is something in that Trump camp who was saying, oh, you know, as long as it's tied, Trump's going to win by four or five points, because that's that's been his track. But what you're saying is that that now has been calculated in and that quote unquote hidden Trump vote is probably not there as strong this time as it was four years ago or eight years ago.

Speaker 4

I don't I don't think to the extent that there was an over an overcall in twenty twenty twenty sixteen. It was a very big gap twenty twenty, a gap, but not as big. I think that the polling community is catching up with the Trump factor. There are some people who think that Trump will be overpolled. If you look at the polling and the Republican primaries back in the spring, Trump was overpolled and he wasn't hitting the mark as high as what the pollsters had him at.

So there is a school of thought. There are people out there who say, maybe Kamala Harris is being underpolled, especially in communities and rural communities where people don't want to say they're voting Democratic in a rural area to a pollster, and it's more of a closet goal for the Democrat. So I don't buy into, well, you know, we're all missing Trump by five or six points across the board. I could be wrong, but I think the polling community has kind of caught.

Speaker 5

Up with that.

Speaker 2

Okay, and my last question before we go to the news, and then we'll go to phone calls right after that. Trump seems to be, for the polls I see, seems to be doing better with black and Latino voters than he has in the past and other Republicans. Is that number going to melt between now and Tuesday or or do you think that's going to hold from what you've seen.

Speaker 4

Well, first of all, Harris is going to win both blacks and overwhelmingly and Hispanics pretty comfortably. The only problem Harris has is young Black men ages thirty eighteen to thirty four. Those voters are voting for either Trump or third party in higher proportions than four years ago. Hispanics it's eighteen eight It's young Hispanic men and middle aged Hispanic men. Because we did in our Hispanic only poland Nevada.

In Arizona ages eighteen to fifty, they were voting for Trump by twelve thirteen points, whereas they were splitting evenly between Trump and Biden four years ago. So those are the if you micro target just those categories, those are the only categories within Hispanic and Black which are problematic for Harris, and she still hasn't cracked that yet. She still hasn't won back the young black voter, a young black male voter, and the young male Hispanic voter and middle aged male Hispanic voter.

Speaker 2

So the actual voted twenty twenty with Biden amongst black voters.

Speaker 3

And I'm sure you know this so off the top of your head, I don't.

Speaker 2

It was by something like ninety percent and Trump was nine percent.

Speaker 4

Yeah, it was not. In the swing states, it was ninety two to seven, Okay, swing and right now and right now and right now, Harris is like eighty to fifteen or eighty to sixteen, which you would say, well, that's still great, and it is great, but it's not the night. She's got to get up to ninety percent in the black community, and young black men are holding

that number down a little bit. And the reason is because in Pennsylvania, which is really a red state except for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, black voters have to overwhelmingly deliver a big margin coming out of Philadelphia County in order to carry Pennsylvania. Same thing with Detroit carrying it into the rural areas of Michigan.

Speaker 2

So if Harris can't get up to that to the Biden level in a really close race, why does she make up that difference. If she can't make it up amongst you know, young black men.

Speaker 4

She makes it up in two areas. Number One, older voters. She's polling older voters better than Biden did. Believe it or not, Trump was winning. Trump was winning older voters. In the exit polls, She's capturing more older voters than Biden did four years ago. And there were some Republicans, disaffected Republicans where Haley voters who will never vote for Harris but they haven't really warmed up to Trump. They are voting for Trump, but in many of these state

ballots they have multiple other third party options, yep. And they could just say, look, I'm going to vote for the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate, and that would be costly to Trump.

Speaker 2

I assume his pollsters, Trump's posters are telling him the same thing. They must be seeing the same numbers you're seeing. Why do you think do you think that Trump, at some point in the next few days is going to say I got to call NICKI Haley and I got to make some appearances with Nicki Haley.

Speaker 4

Oh yeah, I absolutely believe that. You know, I just saw Nicki Haley interviewed and she was campaigning for McCormick in Pennsylvania, and they were like, are you're going to be with Trump? And she basically said, I haven't heard from him since June. I think you heard that.

Speaker 3

I heard that.

Speaker 2

So how can Trump be that dumb or that's stubborn? If, if, if that could be what he needs to push himself over the line.

Speaker 3

That's that's to me interesting.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean it's kind of a character flaw. It's a character flaw. He doesn't he doesn't want anyone taking credit If he believes he's gonna win, he doesn't want anybody taking credit for it, especially Nikki Haley. He has his own VP, and there's a certain pride factor which could come back and bite him off. Yeah, that's that's a decision that his campaign has to figure out. They

have to go through the poll. They won't pulling numbers and figure that out, or it could be costly in one or two of these swing states.

Speaker 3

Maybe they're running out of time.

Speaker 2

As simple as that, David, let's do this, Let's let's hold on. We'll get callers on the other side. We'll be right back. I promise I'll have a quick newscast to be right back.

Speaker 3

We'll go to the callers. My name's Dan Ray.

Speaker 2

His is Day Pale Logus, along with Spencer Kimball and John Zogby. I don't think you can find better pollsters than these three gentlemen, and I get a sense that all three of them are seeing this fairly similarly. I just commend them to you. It's your decision whether you want to believe him or not. We'll be back on Nightside six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or six one, seven, nine three thirty. You can talk to a polster, one of the best, live right after the news.

Speaker 1

It's Night Side with Dan d Boston's news Radio.

Speaker 2

Well, ready to go, let's I'm looking folks for questions. You know, there's no sense of trying to argue with Dave Pelly Logus, but ask whatever questions you like, because frankly, uh, he's equipped with a lot of information.

Speaker 4

Uh.

Speaker 2

It seems to me that this race has gone back and forth Dave, and a week ago, I think the numbers would have been a little stronger for Trump. And maybe he's hitting a little bit of maybe he hit a plateau, maybe he's he's sliding here. That's the only thing I can I can figure as I follow the numbers. You know the numbers better than me. How far off I on that analysis?

Speaker 4

No, not far off at all. I mean I have the same feeling just looking at the numbers. I think Trump peaked probably a week or so ago, and either the pendulum is swinging slowly back to Kamala Harris, or maybe Trump is plateauing, as you say, and he's kind of coasting into Tuesday. But no matter what happens, it's really all about field operation right now, getting your vote identified and knocking on doors and pulling them out on election day.

Speaker 3

All right, let's go to the call.

Speaker 2

It's gonna go first to Nick and Weymouth. Nick, you are first this hour a Night'sie with Suffolk University poster Dave Pale logus. Go ahead, Nick, Okay. If Nick's not ready, we're gonna move on. We're putting Nick on hold. He's obviously not ready, and we're gonna go to Dan. Please put Nick on hold, if you would, thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Let's go to Stephen Cambridge, Steven Cambridge, You're first up. Go right ahead, Steve.

Speaker 6

People who will answer posters and people who won't, So to some degree, anybody who answers a poster is self selecting. Do you ever think about that? And do you have any way to control for that?

Speaker 2

I clipped you at the beginning. That was my mistake, Steve, I clipped you at the beginning. Just rephrase that question quickly for Dave Paleologus plays.

Speaker 6

There are people who will answer posters questions and people who will never answer posters questions. So to some degree, the people who answer posters questions are self selecting part of the population. Does Dave have any way of controlling for that or does he ever think about that?

Speaker 3

Great question?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I do think about it. And the answer to the question is that the that person who doesn't answer the call does not have any unique demographic that we won't pick up at some point with numerous trials. In other words, if that person is a conservative white male between the ages of thirty and forty five, some not every you know, not every white male between thirty and forty five has that resistance to being interviewed. And so the key is that every demographic is represented, and some

demographics are harder to get others than others. For example, what we do in the last night of calling is we what we call quota phil which means that if there are demographics that are lower that we need to increase, we have two options. We can either weight the sample at the end or fill quotas. I don't like waiting is a general rule, because it pulls another demographic out of whack. It's like whackamo. You adjust for one demographic and something else pops up and it's out of whack,

and you adjust for that and so on. So what I would rather do is fill quotas. So it's time consuming, it costs a lot of money, but I think it's well worth it if you can fill quotas and have a balanced survey responding pool that matches the correct proportions demographically.

Speaker 6

Dave one more question, and I mean this respectfully. Definitely, all of this polling makes for very good news copy and the public likes it. Makes everything exciting. Do you see it serving any real purpose in terms of what's good for the country or what's good for our democracy, et cetera, et cetera. Do you see any real purpose in it.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I do. I mean, I'm very bullish on it. I mean, we did on an entire poll on sexual harassment in the workplace, sexual assault. It had an incredible amount of staying power. We called we did a poll of unregistered unlikely voters, which nobody pulls. Everybody polls likely voters, and we found really interesting findings about the one hundred million people who won't vote in the United States who are eligible to vote. So I think the polling does teach us a lot and informs us of how we

can be better as a society. One of the projects we did at the university was we did a poll of Newark residents. Because Newark had a consent decree against itself with the Department of Justice, and the DJ approached Suffolk asking us to bid on it. We did a survey of residents of Newark and we made some really stiff recommendations for the Newark Police Department, some of which

they adopted, some of which they didn't. The year after that poll was published, not a shot was fired by a Newark police officer in an entire year, and so one of my students, Keith Horvath, who still works for me. I remember him saying. He came right out of the classroom and he said, I can't believe that this poll. I feel like the poll we worked on saved lives.

I've never ever felt that way. And I was stuck fund to hear a student say that to me, that a poll, just a little poll, this student believed saved lies. But the truth is is that the police department adopted the recommendations and maybe some good can come out of it. It's not a perfect unit.

Speaker 6

About the presidential polling. Do you think good can come out of it?

Speaker 4

I think it can in terms of the undecided voters, and you can be informed about like what under like we're undecided thinking of voting. For example, we published third party candidates everybody that's listed on the ballot. Let's say that Jill Stein and Cornell West get a larger proportion of the vote than we're currently showing at the expense

of Kamala Harris. Trump could win that state if Jill Stein upticks and Cornell West uptics in Michigan, for example, that is an important finding, and that's why we report every candidate that's listed on a ballot. Some posters they'll do just Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, two people. Then they'll have an option for another, uh, you know, an other choice. And if the respondent names it, they names it,

they name it. We actually name all of the candidates because those little third party candidates at are half a point or a quarter of a point in a tight race could make all the difference in the world.

Speaker 6

Thank you both, Thank you, Dan, Thank you Dave.

Speaker 2

Great question marks, great questions and great answers. Will be back good Night Side right after this.

Speaker 1

Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.

Speaker 2

Back to the phones for Poster Suffolk, Poster Dave PAILLEYO logus, Nick and Weymouth.

Speaker 3

You're up, Hope, you're ready? Go ahead? Nick?

Speaker 7

Is that ready?

Speaker 1

Hey?

Speaker 7

I'm looking and what I like to look at is the real clear polling electoral map. What I'm looking at the toss ups states have recently increased. Okay, they're like a heart at night now. So it's been reshuffling.

Speaker 3

And so there's only fifty states.

Speaker 2

What are you talking about? One hundred and eight toss up states? Come on, Nick, what are you talking about?

Speaker 7

Is a hard and eight toss up states could go either way, not staying.

Speaker 3

There's only we only have fifty states.

Speaker 7

Excuse me, one hundred and eight electoral votes.

Speaker 2

Okay, okay, okay, now you've clarified.

Speaker 3

That's good. Nick, go ahead. What's your question?

Speaker 7

They for the states that are toss ups. Okay, that you add up the electoral votes.

Speaker 5

That's the hundred I get it, I get it.

Speaker 3

Nick. You're wasting my time. What you question?

Speaker 7

Let me finish. I'll finish. Okay, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.

Speaker 2

We know the toss up states. Nick, we know the toss up states. You're wasted my time.

Speaker 7

If he wins, If Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, in New Hampshire, he'll get to seventy two based on my on my calculations.

Speaker 3

Good for you, Good for you.

Speaker 7

So what you question, Amphony pencil.

Speaker 2

See you that good night? Okay, I have no he's just wasting my time here. Let's keep going here, Dave. There's all sorts of, you know, variations and permutations that can get different candidates to different numbers.

Speaker 3

That's part of the fun of it.

Speaker 2

Let me go next to Anthony and Cambridge. Anthony A little bit more direct on your question. Go ahead, Anthony.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Dan, and great to have Dave on. He's fantastic, Dave. How much how much time money is invested now in trying to figure out who has voted early and how to direct the money towards certain demographics. You mentioned that all the voters have started to swing towards Harris. That's a group that I would assume would be higher in early voting. How hot is it to track exactly who has voted? And I'm just to close, I'm fascinated with early voting. I think there's a bit of momentum going

for Harris. Seemed to be a little scale and it could be ironic that, you know, with Trump being so against early voting, it could turn out that he's the biggest beneficiary of it if her momentum ends up, you know, coming at the end and not having the impact it would. But can you talk a little bit about early voting and how that impacts everything, because it's it's a fascinating topic, Dan, Thank.

Speaker 3

You, David.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Speaker 4

So, the early voting has been Harris in most every pole that we've been doing, by like thirty points. Now, that's not unusual. Biden won by thirty one in early voting in our last national poll four years ago. Harris was winning by twenty nine in the national poll. So she's right there in terms of the early voting, and was seeing the same thing in the swing states as well. And there were you know, in the swing states for example. You know, we had a large early lead among Wisconsin

early voters and Trump was winning by one. So the early voting is an indicator, but it will shift because mail in voting is all Democratic pretty much. Early in person voting is more of a mix, and election day voting is overwhelmingly Trump. So Trump has made improvements in Nevada. You mentioned Nevada, caller, Nevada is one of those states where Republicans are overperforming on the early voting, especially in the rural counties.

Speaker 9

All right, but your data is based on polling people who have voted early, not assumptions based on the demographics or of the data of people who voted. How much information do you get from the local and state elected you know, election officials on who has voted.

Speaker 4

We watched that and it changes from day to day, and you can you know, there's a website where you can track how how much of the early voting has come in, Like in Massachusetts, I think a million two have already voted something like that, a million three out

of the whatever three point six or whatever. However many people vote Massachusetts, and you can get statistics updated every day on what the early voting is, and sometimes they include like whether or not they know information about the age differences, the party differences, and you know, obviously Democrats are turning out in higher intensity and that reflects higher excitement for Harris. But Biden had Bob Biden had it as well.

Speaker 8

Most of those assumptions.

Speaker 3

Based on Anthony.

Speaker 2

Anthony, pardon me, Anthony, I have one of the call I'd like to get to. Okay, so thank you again here, thank you, Welcome to Anthony, Thank you. Let me go to Scott and Quincy. Scott, you got to be quick for me or the end of the line.

Speaker 5

Go right ahead, Yes, indeed, Dan, great show. Right, So, hey, I'd like to know about the correlation between news media outlet coverage of Trump versus Harris. When I watched the Evening News on YouTube, you can see in their hashmarks on the bottom of the screen, like three quarters of the content on a lot of the nightly news shows, it's like about how horrible Donald Trump is and is that type of media coverage skewing people's opinions across the nation?

And Dan question for you should it be legal? Should news media outlets have to give equal time to both sides of the story and to do what they want.

Speaker 2

That's why we have a First Amendment. The First Amendment doesn't regulate what news media outlets. I perceive on some of the nightly newscast particularly ABC a bias, but that's my personal observation. Might be right, it might be wrong. Day paleologus, you do not track that correct.

Speaker 4

No, but it's a good question. And if there are races where there is a high undecided, then you have the halo effect, which is that you can be influenced by what you what signals you are receiving, and what you're what you're hearing, such that your opinion would be shaped positively or negatively based on getting that repetition of

signals barraging into your brain cells. And where in this situation you have a low undecided, it's probably less likely people are pretty much hunkered down and they you know, in terms of who they're going to vote for. But you know, I mean, I'm in kind of an interesting position because we have I have multiple media partners, some of which take an active role politically and some which don't. For example, we partner with the Boston Globe. We've been

a longtime partner of the Globe. They endorsed in this presidential election USA today, which we do the other states and national pulling with they have stained they did not endorse for a candidate in the presidential election. So some media outlets are due to ownership or due to their political philosophies. They're dictated by how involved they get, whether it's broadcast media or newspaper in terms of putting out an abundance of information one way or the other.

Speaker 2

All right, Scott, we're flat out of time. I thank you very much, got for your question. Thank you, sir, Dave Paley Locus. I thank you immentally, thank you so much for once again giving us some insights, valuable insights. And let's see what happens on Tuesday night. Maybe we'll talk Tuesday night at some point if you might be available as the real votes and the real numbers start to come in and see how close they are to what you and Spencer and others.

Speaker 4

Have found that would be great. And thank you listeners for those great questions.

Speaker 3

I appreciate the good questions. Yes there were.

Speaker 2

I was confused, but the guy was telling me now about one hundred and eight states. I'm sorry about that. Anyway, I wasn't confused, but I think he was. Thanks Dave Paley Logus. We will talk soon. Thank you, my friend. Okay, thanks very much. Back right after the ten o'clock news, we're going to talk about would you buy a haunted house. We're gonna just get a little lighter for a moment.

Speaker 3

We'll go back to politics later

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