It's night Side with Dan Ray, w BZ Constance met Radio bro.
Welcome back. Tonight is the night after the big day, the election of twenty twenty four. Boy, you know, we waited for that for months and finally it was upon us, and everybody was concerned it was going to take several days,
and it didn't. It took several hours. But by five point thirty this morning, everyone agreed, well everyone it seems to have agreed that Donald Trump had won the Electoral College with over two hundred and seventy votes, and now apparently he is still leading on the popular vote and he is stunning reversal for Donald Trump, I will admit, as one of my listeners challenged me today. Yeah, I said all along, I did not think that Donald Trump could be elected in a one on one face off
with the Democrat. I knew that he would win the the Republican nomination if he wanted it. I think that I questioned his willingness or his unwillingness to campaign with Nikki Haley or invite her onto the campaign trail. But you gotta give it to the guy. He put together. He cobbled together a coalition that I think is a has the potential of basically changing the political landscape in this country for years ahead. So who better to join me tonight to talk about it than one of my
favorite posters, Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University. Dave, welcome back. How many hours sleep have you had in the last forty eight hours?
Four hours? Dan, It's great to be back.
Wow. When did you think that this was You know, everybody was saying it's going to be really close, and my concern was that we would have another one of these elections that ended up in court and we were going to be challenging, you know, like two thousand hanging chads or twenty twenty when there were sixty one cases and allegations of fraud, none of which proved to be to be true. When did you think that looks like Donald Trump's going to win? At what point last night?
What was the what were the signs that you were seeing early? If they were signs you were seeing early.
The first wave I had was around nine thirty was relatively early because I was watching New Hampshire and my whole theory was that New Hampshire was the canary in the coal mine. If Harris won New Hampshire by ten or twelve points. It was going to be a blue wave. If Harris lost New Hampshire, are only won by one to four points. That was the signal to me that I should then look at Virginia, which was close, Minnesota
which was close. And so when you piece together those data points, it informed me that there was trouble ahead for the Harris team in the rust belt states.
Yeah, I'm looking at the map, and I'm sure you don't need to look at the map. That's what you do for a living, so you're but it is. Obviously Harris carried New England, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, so a slice of the northeast, the coastal northeast. But President elect Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. He repeated what he did in twenty sixteen, and then he you know, not only did they win Ohio, but they flipped a
Senate seed. It looks like they're going to flip a Senate seat in Montana. They flipped a Senate seat and meaning the Republicans in West Virginia. This was a great night for the Republicans. In my sense is that they very well made hold on to their lead in the House at this point. What's your take on that? Do you have a strong feeling as to what's going to happen either in the Senate of the House. I think they could have fifty three Senate seats when all of a said and done.
Oh, the Senate is for sure Republican, I think, and the House is leaning that way, which you're right about the map. The only blue that you see on the map is the northeast, with Virginia at the west, Washington, Oregon, California, and then two clumps of two states Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado, New Mexico. That's it. Everything else is red.
You can throw in Hawaii there as well, but Hawaii and Alaska have always split one. Hawaii's Democratic, Alaska is Republican. So my understanding is that from a statistical point of view, and I know that bragging is not something that you do real much. You're a pretty quiet guy. But uh, with the you pretty much were seven for seven within the margin of era on you know, on Michigan and
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and bell Weathers as well. I mean Wisconsin statewide, you had a Trump for one percent and and I guess it turned out to be Trump for one percent. You had a bell Weather in Door County in Wisconsin, which you had Harris plus three. I think that now has gone to Trump. If I'm not mistaken, is that there have been a late change there tonight and Door County in Wisconsin.
I don't think so.
Okay, I thought I heard. I thought I heard one of the network reporters saying that that was the big bell Weather County. But Michigan state wide, you had it as a flat footed tie and you had Trump. It turns out Trump won by about one and a half, but that was well within the margin of era. Pennsylvania you had it as a tie. Trump was two. Trump is always underrated. You were as close as anyone. There really is a hitting Trump vote out there. At least there wasn't this election. Am I right on that?
Oh? Absolutely? Yeah, yeah, absolutely there was, but it wasn't as drastic. I mean, the polster has got skewered in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and for good reason. I found myself answering press calls for other pollsters who weren't picking up the phone why polling was wrong, which is okay, but in this cycle, it was too bad. It was a couple points, and it is a hidden vote. Part
of it is due to the methodology. You know, if you're doing a ten minute study, you tend to draw in more college educated and those with a master's degree to do a ten minute study because a lot of people, you know, who may have vote education training or just a high school diploma, they excuse themselves out of the screen because they say they don't think they know enough about the issues of the candidates, but they'll vote.
And they know and they know who they're going to vote for.
Absolutely, they take themselves out of the screen. Question. But and so you know, the demographics are filled by more educated people and that's you know, but that's an adjustment of posters have had to make.
Okay, so you're a polster, you're not a political practitioner. But it seems to me if I'm wrong, please correct me. I would appreciate that. But this seems to me to be election and election which now has really changed the dynamic between the two parties here in America and that both parties have to kind of recalibrate. The Republicans have an easier time because they're up but the Democrats, they got to do a lot of soul searching when they look at the number of votes that they've lost amongst
Latino voters and black voters, particularly black men. Is this a one time only or do you think this has implications four years, eight years from now?
It's hard to say. You know, I think you're right, though, both candidates underperformed in certain categories. For example, Trump underperformed among older voters compared to twenty twenty, and there were Republicans voters. Some were choice Republican voters, others were sort of the Liz Cheney Nikki Hayley slice of the Republican Party that Kamala Harris tried to pull in. The mistake she made was that for every vote that she pulled in,
Trump would make up that single vote someplace else. Now, Harris underperformed in areas that were much more leveraged for Trump. In other words, let's say you have two baskets of you know, you have the Tamala basket of apples and the Trump basket of apples. If Trump gave up an apple for his basket, you know, he would make it
up with another demographic. But what Trump did was he went after Kamala Harris demographics which were leveraged, meaning Joe Biden won Hispanics two to one in twenty twenty, which means for every apple a Hispanic voter that Trump put in his basket, Iamala Harris then had to make up two apples for that one to keep that two to
one ratio of sixty five to thirty two. And then when it came to Black voters, for every Trump Trump went after those young black men, for every apple well of young black men that Trump put in his basket, Kamal Harris needed seven apples to make up seven voters to make up for that one. So where Trump was stealing in the you know, the the Hispanic men and the and the and the black men, it wasn't Oh, Kamal haus could just you know, she could make up
one vote for every vote that Trump picked up. She had to keep that same winning ratio that Biden had two to one with Hispanics, seven to one with blacks, and she couldn't do it. There weren't enough. There weren't enough apples out there for her to even after the ratios.
One statistic that hit me kind of between the eyes tonight, as I looked was in the home state of Liz Cheney. Donald Trump carried that home stage seventy two, almost a three to one ratio, seventy two to twenty six. That's that's that's a pretty strong repudiation in a state that Liz Cheney once represented and her father has always been associated, well except for his time in Texas. Where does Liz
Cheney go from here? Does she just become a Democrat and decide to run for office in some other state as a Democrat?
I mean, yeah, I really, I really don't know. Maybe she goes into academia, and maybe she starts her own consulting firm, you know, and hope that a different kind of Republican takes over that she's more aligned with or a Democrat. But I think I think what the state is saying when you talk about Montana, I think they're saying to Trump, don't blame us for for Liz Cheney's you know, statements and activities where you mean.
Why what the state of Wyoming is Yeah? Yeah, And in Montana it looks as if the Republicans knocked off long three three term Democratic incumbent test John Tester Senator Tester let's let's do this, Dave, I got to take a quick break. Let me open up the phone lines here, give people a question, to give people an opportunity to ask you any question they want about the real numbers
last night. I am really happy that this election turned out decisively, and I think it is a decisive election, even though it's going to be probably fifty one forty seven or something like that. The fact that Trump carried the Electoral College as easily as he did, uh and and the popular vote. He's already been invited to the White House by President Biden. Vice President Harris delivered her concession speech today. I think we're going to have a
fairly quiet couple of months. And I'm stunned at that. But that's not the only thing that has dounne me in the last twenty four hours. Do you have the same feeling that I had that, hey, you know, we got through this election as a country and maybe maybe just maybe we can come together and be a little more united, more united, or do you think that this divide is just a desire, that a divide that is going to continue on and on and on.
I'll see what happens in Congress, but I think the early indications were encouraging. I did watch her concession speech, and I've kind of sampled some of the commentary from both right leaning talking heads and left leaning talking heads, and they seem to be almost clamoring yearning for the country coming together. You see, the left leaning talking heads
thought that would happen under Kamala Harris. But you know, when you see those you talked about landslide, when you see those kinds of numbers across so many different states, that sends a powerful message. And there are people who are in politics or politicians for a reason. They understand popularity, They understand polling, probably better than a lot of other people.
And when the voters have you know, exercised their right, you know they have to readjust they have to recalibrate their own political philosophy and their advocacy.
It's going to be interesting the next few weeks, and of course, once the president elect takes the oath of office, I'm sure that there'll be some actions that he takes, which is which will ignite a lot of passions. But I'm sure he's going to look at those as keeping campaign promises. So we'll see six thirty and six seven. We'll get a couple of calls in here for day Pailologus. I'm not going to hang him out to dry tonight. If you want to criticize posters, you can, but do
it politely. If you want to ask him any question, again, I asked him to be respectful. Back on Night's side right after this.
Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
All right, let's try to get some calls in here for your Dave Paleologus. Let's go first off to Ken in Florida. Ken, you first this hour with poster Dave Paleologus.
Go ahead, Ken, Hello, Dan, Hey Dave, Dan, you forgot to call me nostradamus.
Ken, Well, you will always take care of that for me. Tell us why we're calling noster domas tonight.
Yes, I'm not. I'm not the most modest guys. I'm sorry. It's David.
Yeah.
Yes, congratulations on your polling. I find the polling to be fascinating. I'm kind of a political junkie by no means an expert, And what I was predicting with Dan, what I was watching is the change in the demographics. Well, first, of all her policies. Well, she didn't really have any policies, did she. You know, she flipped blop and everything. So I thought that most Americans, the majority of Americans, would
see past that. And also I saw the shift in demographics, whether it was you know, African American men, latinos.
I live in.
Florida, I'm formerly from Massachusetts. But I saw a lot of changes in the demographics. So that's why I thought he would win both the popular vote in the electoral college. But certainly I didn't see the blue wall caving in like it did. So I'm curious about what you think about how he did so well in that blue wall.
That's a great question. And congratulations for predicting the popular vote. That's that's terrific. I mean, it's almost a given that Democrats win the popular vote. That can either win the electoral College or lose electoral college. But to your point, so take Michigan and Detroit, which each of twelve percent black.
For in terms of likely voters, what we knew is that black likely voters ages eighteen to thirty four were defecting to either Cornell West, Jill Stein Trump or weren't going to vote overall Black men and the black population voted overwhelmingly for Harris. But as I said, in the exit polling, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the exit polling
showed Biden winning black voters ninety two to seven. So I saw the young, when I saw the young black men is coming in at eighteen, nineteen twenty, exactly, I knew that that seven percent was going to be you know, blown away in terms of the black vote. And she won the black vote handily, but she couldn't repeat the ninety two to seven advantage, and therefore she couldn't carry that Detroit Wayne County advantage across Michigan or the Philadelphia,
you know, Delaware County advantage across Pennsylvania. And that's how you know, and they're just there. There wasn't a big enough margin in those blue cities to sustain itself across.
The Let me jump in, why was it then that black men supported an older white candidate in Joe Biden four years ago and turned their backs on a younger woman of mixed mixed heritage. But you know, her dad was Jamaican, certainly identified as black.
The economy, okay, the economy, all right, yeah, I mean polling supports that. Yeah, Guster Domas is right. The polling supports because he's right, because people were saying in the polling they weren't looking at issues like abortion rights. Abortion rights was important to young women, young black women, and young Hispanic women, but not to young black men and
young Hispanic men. And you know, I also talked to our kind of product, the Detroit Free Press, and he was saying that there was this bougie personality that he was picking up in churches and in the black community where black black men just they couldn't identify with her as being Philly or Detroit that they saw they saw her as more upper middle class, and there was almost
a class divided within the black community. And that didn't help matters when you add that into the economy and immigration as the top two issues.
Did they know she was raised middle class? Did you know that?
Oh? Sure, sure in every speech.
I mean so again my point again, I'm a novice, you're an expert. I just watched when if you calculate that shift in demographics in each major city around the country, I said, he's going to win the popular vote. You know, even in blue states, he's going to pick up more votes. So that's why.
You should have bet some money on that. You'd be a rich man tonight.
Come into Vegas odds. I said Trump's gonna win. Look at Vegas.
I go.
I know, but I'm allowed to gambler, so I didn't.
All right, thank you ken Aka, appreciate it.
Future Dan that and no, thank you sir for your polling. You your you have a Do you have a web? Can we find your website or anything? Or where are you on the internet?
Yeah? Sure, it's suffolk s U F f O LK dot E d U slash s U p r C. And that gives the latest polls. We have all the top ranked posters. Any of the posters on the lifts are really good to look at. There's a lot of good folks on there and uh and some of the upcoming polls are also on there.
And maybe Dan can list that because I'm still tired. I was up till three thirty, and I was you shouldn't be drinking scotch at three thirty, but I was. And I'm very tired. I'm going to bed now with gator ring. So maybe Dank can listen link that somewhere.
Send me an send me an email tomorrow and I will have it for you. Okay, well, all right, thank you, great you again. I know that's that's suffolk dot E d U. And what is the the additional.
It's a slash up r C, which is an acronym Pacific University Political Research Center supr su PRC.
Okay, we're past the news here, we have the news. Let's take the news. Can you stick with me for one more segment?
Sure?
I know you've had a long, long a couple of nights. Well, you've got along a few weeks. I know I have another question coming back, but we also have other callers six and six, one, seven, nine, three, one tenth thirty. We're gonna be talking politics all night. Uh. We are fortunate enough to have Dave Paleo Logus with us for a little while longer. Feel free if you want to ask a question of somebody who really studies this not only during the election season, but that is his profession
and no one does it better. He and Spencer Kimball. We gave Spencer a lot of kudos for his poll on Iowa, which he never got credit for. I know you credited him, but uh, the Boston pollsters had a pretty good, pretty good election night, that's for sure. Between the two of you. We'll be back at nice that with Dave Paleo Logus and more phone calls right after this.
You're on Night Side with Dan Ray. I'm Boston's news Radio.
All right, let's get more calls in here. Going to go to Jason in nor would Jason You're on with Dave Paleo Logus go right ahead. Got a question for Dave the pollster.
Yes, I do have a question. It's a real treat to have such a skilled and clear spoken pollster.
And that's a great poster.
I'm really enjoying what he has to say. Uh, And like probably everybody else in the country, I'm craving some unity here going forward. And I wonder if he could comment prospectively from a polster's point of view on I have three issues here. Maybe he would comment, don't choose one or comment on.
All free give it a shot.
What are the prospects for these issues resulting in more rankor and divisiveness or possibly leading to unity. So President elect Trump has made two promises, among as many others, mass deportations. I'd be curious if David would like to comment on the prospects of unity or divisiveness around that one. Budget cuts. I think he made that promise for the first time early this morning in his speech. I don't recall him making any comments about paying down the deficit,
but paying down the deficit will require budget cuts. And the third issue is related to abortion. I think the abortion is much less divisive now at the federal level because it's off the table at the federal level. However, if it's both houses of Congress are Republican controlled, I think it's inevitable that early on it will come into play an attempt to cut all the funding for planned parently. So those are the three questions. I don't know.
Why don't we take them one at a time? I hope, Dave, I hope you were taking notes here.
Where should we start in?
I guess you can start with the abortion issue. I mean, the abortion vote didn't turn out nearly as dramatically as the Vice President had hoped. That has to be disappointing to her, and part of the reason that she didn't win. Is that issue now less important going forward? Or I mean, I guess it depends what happens in the various States.
So it is an important issue to a select group of likely voters. We know that, and I think there was an assumption that because Robruss's wade was overturned in the spring of twenty twenty two had resulted in a in the abatement of a red wave in the midterms in twenty twenty two, that the same thing was going to happen, that independent women were going to break away from independent men who were voting for the trump endor
centic candidate. What happened was the independent women, because of Roe versus Way, they flipped and they didn't vote with the independent men. That didn't happen in twenty twenty four to the extent that they thought it would. For a couple of reasons. Number one, two years it expired, and so the pool of people who were most intense on the abortion issue had drunk a little bit. It was
still strong among women, especially single women. And secondly, because the pool, the pool of voters was larger in twenty twenty four. So if you have an intense group of voters in twenty twenty two, the turnout was lower in twenty twenty two. It was a midterm election, and so that that pool had much more impact, whereas with many many people voting who were more concerned about the economy and immigration, it was more diluted.
Okay, So Welcoward planned parenthood funding cuts become a federal issue.
I mean, they could, and that's really going to depend on Congress, right, It's going to depend on when. But what what what the makeup of Congress is, and you know how, you know how how far Congress is willing
to go with it with the issue. I mean, Comma, I'm sorry, No, it's just Becauna say, Kama has pulled really well on the abortion issue and on health care too, and they can and you know, unfortunately for her, I don't know why they did this, but in our polling and most of the public bowling, that was a twofer. It wasn't just about abortion, right, she had that she was winning it by twenty I think the play would have been to really talk about healthcare, more discussion about healthcare,
because she was winning overwhelmingly on healthcare. But they kind of pushed that aside and they only did specific targeting to older people with you know, a specific medicare issue, and they didn't really open it up to the more broader you know, comparative advantage she had over Trump on that one issue of healthcare.
Yeah. So, but again it depends, Jason upon what the Republicans choose to do here, and you know it may be that their argument will be planned parent whood should function like any other five O, one C three uh. And and because there's such a divisive issue, it would be like having government funding for the NRA. I mean they it depends upon how they might package and sell it. Give me the other two things real quickly so we can get a quick comment from David then and then we.
Got to run with the.
Deploitation and bunchy cuts to pay down the deficite.
Yeah okay, yeah, so I met.
We that's those great questions on mass deportations. We've asked these questions before, and you know, we have a divided country on mass deportations. So I think it was forty four actually approved of it, at almost fifty percent disapproved of it. And then we asked the second question, which is, despite how you feel about the issue itself, how easy
or difficult do you think it would be? And most people said it would be difficult or impossible to deport millions of people despite whether or not they supported the idea or not supported the idea. So there's a logistical question in the minds of likely voters.
Here's what I think. Here's what I think Trump's going to do. Beatrice to Dave, if you agree, He's going to focus on people who are here, have committed crimes, accused of crimes, people who we know who have come into the country and who have escaped from other countries,
who are criminal, serious criminal matters. He's going to try to get ICE, and he's trying to get localities to work with ICE and deport some of those high profile and he's he's not going to be going out grabbing, you know, a single mom's or or single parents off the street their kids. He's not He's not crazy. He's going to focus on more cooperation with ICE. The Democrats
took it to extreme. They said ICE can't cooperate, can't be involved in detainers, and it doesn't matter who the person is, even if they are a career criminal or a serious have similar serious criminal charges. That's the way where I think he's going to deal with that. Would you agree to disagree, day.
Peale, I definitely would agree with that.
Yes, for sure, and so Jason, I hate to do this better, but we're flat out of time. Great questions. I just got to keep rolling here because we were way past our break.
Okay, yeah, of course, Thank you, Dan.
Thanks Jason to show you as very provocative questions. All right, we will lock Jason off here and we will take a quick break and we'll get everybody in. Dave, I promise I'll let you go at ten six, one, seven, two four ten thirty one line there six one seven, nine three one ten thirty coming right back on Nightside.
Now, back to Dan Ray live from the Window World night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Today, before we pick up a couple of more phone calls at the end. Here, I have to get your response, Joy Reid of MSNBC. She's not a political pollster, but she had she had this to say, cut number twenty eight. I'd love to get your reaction to her analysis last night. This is Joy Reid of MSNBC. Cut twenty eight. Pay attention to the reference.
To say, do you know anyone who has experienced or been in the United States for any period of time and experience this country's history and knows it cannot have believed that it would be easy to elect a woman president, let alone a woman of color.
Let's just be.
Clear, and nothing that was true yesterday about how flawlessly this.
Campaign was run is not true now.
I mean, this really was an historic flawlessly run campaign. She had Queen Latifa never endorses anyone she can out, you know. I mean, she had every prominent celebrity voice she had, She had the Taylor Swifty to the Swifties, she had the Beehive like you could not have run a better campaign in that short period of time. And I think that's still true.
I have no idea what she's talking about. If I mean, uh, if Queen Latifa endorsed, I guess she figures that that she would have sold it up here in America. Did you do any polling on Queen Latifa's impact?
No, we didn't, but we did a celebrity poll a couple of months ago, and if she had read the poll, she would have concluded that it is no measure to run a successful campaign. We asked the impact active celebrities, everybody from Tiger Woods to Taylor Swift to Bad Bunny, you name it, Charles Barklay. We had the Obamas on there lu Clinton's I mean, most people were saying that the influence of a celebrity would have no effect. People don't want to be told who to vote for by
celebrities as a matter of fact. As a matter of fact, the poll showed that there was actually people who said I would vote against the person just because they were telling me who to vote for. So if she had looked at that pole might have helped inform her her opinion.
But you didn't pull Queen Latita, that's the point we'd have to make him.
No, we did not.
Let's keep rolling here. I'm going to get a couple in real quickly. Let me go Dot in Medford, DoD. You got to be quick for me because they got one more behind you.
Go ahead, Dot, Okay, I'm quick. I was up till three in the morning.
I couldn't vote.
Leave.
What Trump pulled off, it was fabulous. And you know I've worked for him since sixteen. He did, he got the popular vote, he got the he got everything he needed. He's getting the sentence. And it's because the people are sick and tired of the Democrats there. They can't take it anymore, and they spoke out all.
Right, Donald God, I have a question of you, Dodd. What you have a question? How would you he has to bring the country together? How does Trump bring the country together? He's got to make some major moves to do that. How does he do it?
He already has brought it together. He has brought it together.
Did you see the boat?
Yes? I did. Let me ask you this what Hunter Biden's going to be sentenced in December. What if Trump came out and said he's had an addiction problem, He's had many demons, he's been a troubled kid. I'm going to pardon him.
Oh, he's a trouble He's a troubled kid. Right, he's a kid, he's a middle aged man.
If Trump pardoned him, what I'm saying, I hope not.
I hold on, listen to the question, dot brost to question and then get the answer. We know you hope not. Go ahead down.
Okay. So what I'm saying is that's the kind of out of the box thinking I think people are looking for from not only Trump, but also from Kamala Harris. Who's willing to put their money with him out is who's willing to really truly try and take the country forward, throwing olive branch out there. I know it's not in
Trump's DNA. It's probably not in Kamal Harris's DNA quite frankly either, But I mean those are the kinds of magnanimous gestures that could really catch people's attention and then from a poster standpoint, maybe improve his favorability his likability going forward as he takes office.
It also might help him with the charges he's facing the state.
I'm eighty nine years old. No forgiveness for Hunter, he's been taking paola for years.
Oh, Dot, you got you got it in. I think I think you're a no. Definitely we'll put you down as a no.
Thank you God.
All right, I have a great night, Dave paaleelogus. We're out of dime. I thought Dot would be quicker as always. Thanks man, you did a great job. Your your reputation is enhanced once again because you and Spencer Kimball my two favorite posters here in the Northeast and John Zogby I think, did a pretty good job. And uh, you get some rest now. We'll probably you're back in this polls pretty pretty soon, right.
Will We'll be doing our first post election pull in December, so uh, you know, little R and R in advance of that, and then uh, we'll see what kinds of sentiments people have going into the new year twenty twenty five.
Your pre Christmas pool, Thanks Dave, you got it alright. Well, so those are you in the lines? Stay there, We're going to talk politics for the rest of the night. If you're not there, dial in, coming back on night Side.