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Right along with a game debut presented by Mercedes Vince Patrick Claibon. Here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland, It's week eleven. I got a strong two sitting next to us. As we guys had some chaos at the top. There were dual crowns. Now we get to see who wears the crown this week.
Oh, nobody really cares who does well between us. They care about the analysis and the you know what's.
Just going Wow, are we going to fake humble? We might as well find out going fake humble?
Now we're here.
Well, you guys were tired at the top of the standings last week. Greg goes eleven and three to move back up top, and now he's got the crown at one hundred and three and forty nine. Cynthia one oh one and fifty one, and then I'm struggling, clawing my way to one hundred nine.
Right there were right there.
Only one place where we could start this week, and that's with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. My homes versus Ali and one of the best rivalries in the NFL, two stars always seem to be on a collision course to meet in the playoffs, where Mahomes is three and zero and the rivalry continues Sunday, Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs heading the Orchard Park Well Josh Allen and the Bills hand case lost number one on the season, Cynthia.
I actually think that they will looking at this matchup. I have twenty six to twenty two, a four point win for the home team. There are some question marks in the Andrew Port, like Spencer Brown, that could make some differences. However, I still think that Josh Allen against the Blitz, which we knows Bags is going to throw his way, is just too big of a selling point in this game. Eleven touchdowns, zero interceptions, seven hundred and five yards number four and epa number four in passerad
would you like me to go on please? That's actually like all of it, But basically it's really really good against the Blitz. This offense is Taylor made. This is the game that they set their clocks to up there in Orchard Park. When is the Kansas City matchups this week?
And that's a really big deal for them.
I gotta say, we've done this show together a long time, and yeah, this year, I feel like I get a feel of the model. I'm surprised the model has the Bills not only winning this game, but covering. And I'm with the model on this one. I have the Bills winning twenty four to twenty and it's because partly of the Bills defense, which is solid year after year, and this year they're getting outstanding potential All Pro play from
Greg Rousseau. He is top five in the NFL in terms of quick pressures that's two and a half seconds or less. Patrick Mahomes maybe not moving quite as well the last couple of weeks because of his ankle. I do think this is a week where they can at least contain him in the pocket. The left tackle has been struggling for the Chiefs. Russeau's likely lining up at right tackle. I think he can win that matchup, and they showed that all those games, and it gives you this.
Impression that the Chiefs own this rivalry.
Well, not in the regular season, and that's what we're picking today. The regular season. The Bills have won the last few in the regular season. I like the Bills at home.
I've lost a lot of games on this show picking again both of these teams, and I feel like things could go either way. But you mentioned this regular season matchup. This Buffalo Bills team is kind of hurt. Josh Allen had his first two interceptions against zone coverage last week without his top wide out to Khalil Shakir, only had eight targets beyond ten yards from a lot of scrimmage.
That's this season long particular statistics. Dalton kinkd and a Marii Cooper, if they're doing cartwheels and warm ups, I'll text our producer, Higschom and I'll say, like, hey, I believe. But this Chiefs defense is so good as they have consistently been. And the reason that this Bills team has been so good is we've seen safety Josh. We've seen Josh not make the mistakes. But I think he has to be yolo Josh Allen to win this game. And I don't know if Yolo Josh Allen can beat this
Chiefs team. So I'll take a stray bop and go.
I mean, you're taking a stray on on an undefeated team that's we are.
Yeah, Strategically it's hard living out here, folks.
Strategically that that's an interesting move by us.
Anyways, whatever, Yeah.
We'll see, let's see how things here. We'll do some math on the game, Cynthia, will Patrick Mahomes have over or under two hundred and forty and a half passing yards on Sunday.
I have him slated for two hundred and twenty nine, which is considerably less. Then remember my model tends to be pretty conservative. Yes, two twenty nine is quite a bit fewer than two hundred and forty when I'm looking at what you're talking about, Greg Russo.
But there's also other pieces.
This is the reason that they brought von Miller onto this team was to stop the Kansas City Chiefs, and specifically the Patrick Mahomes magic, especially on third down where.
He is absolutely crazy.
So not a huge passing game a little bit more maybe on the ground.
You're making me feel better because you're right. When one person is by themselves picking the Chiefs on this show, I think they're undefeated.
All if that person has never.
Wor well, yeah, we'll have bug barb Bryan to get those stats in the break here. Staying in the AFCs, we'll be back on this game later on. The Steelers one of the biggest surprises of the season last week. Russell Wilson showed some veteran savvy to get Pittsburgh a big win. Stuff After Johnny Newton jumped off side, the entire Steelers roster turned into George Pickens and just started doing stuff. It was very weird. The Steelers play host of the Ravens on Sunday, Russ against Lamar first place
in the division on the line. Who walks away with a dumb Cynthia the.
Baltimore Ravens, but just by two points twenty five to twenty three. Expect to sweat this one out to the very end yet again. But Lamar Jackson, who is clearly an MVP form in fact, maybe he's having his best season ever as a passer. Look at those intermediate throws. So if you just dial in, there's so many different stats that I could say that Lamar Jackson is awesome in. But let's just look at intermediate throws because that's an area where you can get got on this Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
So if I'm looking at where does Zay Flowers run intermediate, where they're gonna have a little revenge with Deontay Johns that maybe the intermediate Those are situations where you have a good advantage, and when Lamar Jackson is playing at the level what Lamar Jackson's playing at, you just want to look just ten to nineteen air yards. Just tell your friends you're gonna be like, hey, watch those intermediate throats Lamar Jackson, he's gonna get him.
Got I love that and I love you bringing up Deontay Johnson. It's a true nobody believed in him game. I mean they didn't believe in him. They traded him away. You know who else people weren't believing in a few weeks ago Mark Andrews, I have the Ravens winning both Cynthia and I have the Steelers threading the needle though, so it's just a two point margin and they cover.
But I think the Ravens get to win in part because, yes, Mark Andrews the last five weeks of the season, since that moment where he put the two goose eggs up in a row and everyone says it's over, the Mark andover is over. Drop him in your fantasy leagues. Here's what he's done. Tied for the NFL lead among tight ends in touchdowns, he is seventh in yards over that stretch. He is third in catch rate over expected, so he's
bringing down some difficult throws in tough spots. They were showing the Lamar Jackson highlights for Cynthia's tape, and half of it was Mark Andrews because these two guys have a chemistry unmatched except for you know, maybe Kelsey and Mahomes in Kansas, but.
We're not worrying about them right now.
I think it's the area of the field, as Cynthia talked about, that the Ravens can take advantage. Good offense beats good defense in the end. But it's going to be a great game.
Yeah, let's make it unanimous, not just in the picks, but in terms of the needle threading. Right here on game debut, I've got a Ravens win by one point on a late Tucker field goal with having the luxury. What a nice thing it is to have the NFL's leading rusher going up against the team where they have a player who can't bound himself, TJ. Watt, who has terrorized the Ravens in this matchup four years. But it's really the first time maybe we get twenty or thirty
times of pound in the rock. With Derreck Henry on the inside, there's slow down that gifted edge rusher who when you see Lamar get out on the edge with the Trey Hendrix's of the world. He can make moves, make guys miss. He can't get away from TJ Watt and it really changes things for the Baltimore Ravens when they load up the box to stop Baltimore. They're number one in the run. The Steelers are top five in
that particular stat but Baltimore number one. You have to, yeah to get the king early, otherwise they're going to be chasing them for a long wi. Also, they can keep their own defense off the field, which might help the Baltimore Ravens. So we're all in mem Away Stealers fans. We got another big divisional matchup going down between the Seahawks and the forty nine Ers. These two teams met
back in week six. San Fran went up to Seattle on Thursday night, took care of business, brought Perty throwing for two fifty five and three touchdowns. George Kittle on the receiving end of two of those. Niners won thirty six to twenty four. Fast forward, and now they got a rematch in Santa Clara, Seattle, coming in losing five of their last six. Greg, what can Gino salvage this and get a win?
He can, and that's why I think it's going to be a close game. But I think the forty nine ers are going to win. So I think the Seahawks cover that big spread and they come out and they play well. But Christian McCaffrey is the difference to me twenty seven to twenty four forty nine Ers, because this offense just looks like the forty nine ers offense again with Christian McCaffrey, I watched them last week. Did I see the same explosion as a runner. Maybe not yet
he's warming up to that. But did I see some of the schematic advantages that he brings.
Absolutely.
He's a great pass blocker, by the way, which I think is a big advantage for them. He's a big upgrade from Jordan Mason there. But you see him on the wheel route. You see the attention that he brings as a receiver and how that opens up the rest of the offense for Juwan Jennings. George Kittle I like the way they use Jennings as a clear X receiver. They're a different team with Christian McCaffrey, and they're going to be too much for my Seahawks.
Are they my Seahawks? I don't know. You will have them mission.
Sure, but I'm actually exactly on the same side of this as you. I have a six point win for San Francisco, so I'm threading the needle as well minus twenty seven to twenty one.
I just want to get a little love to George Kittle.
Why because in this changed offense, in all of these injuries they've had, in all the difference like Okay, now brock Party's throwing deep, which brock Perty's had a great season.
The man's going to get paid in.
Large part because George Kittle has been on the receiving end of a lot more air yards this season, a lot deeper targets. He's been to be used in the pass catching game at just a rate we haven't really seen from him, in large part because he's had to.
But with Christian McCaffrey back.
And against this defense that's getting a little bit healthier, this will be an important matchup, not just because last time he was good against them, but also because he's been consistently good against every team this season.
Yeah, with a quarterback that's been consistently good, I will be consistent with the points that you have and take a six point San Francisco win a go. I'm trying to think of a way that the Seahawks can win this game, and it's well, maybe Kenny Walker gets going and it helps protect Gino because historically in this matchup, the forty nine Ers have really gotten off to after Eugene.
But in the last three games, which are all losses again for Seattle, they're averaging sixty four rush yards a game. And in the first game, Gino was pressured on thirty seven percent of his dropbacks. He was seven of nineteen on those plays. It's just tough to envision the route there. I think you get DK Metcalf that's back, but I don't know unless Dk is going to be up front.
Three years, three years since they beat the forty nine ers. Give it.
Do it for Greg, If not for the.
Vision, We're gonna get the teamword.
Here, Seahawks. Do it for Greg Rose at though, who needs this. We're just getting started here. On game day, you still to come. Joe Burrow's squad needs a win. They got a big win Sunday night with the surging Chargers. By the way, find someone who looks at you the way Jim Harball looks at Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert. We're talking Bengals bolts. Right after the break, It's time for the drive the Excellence presented by Mercedes Benz Herbert aka
the Beast. Jamar Ball says, the Chargers playing host of the Bengals Sunday Night. Joe Burrow's team coming off a devastating Thursday night loss to the Ravens.
What do you think takes place in I think the upset takes place against herbister.
Whatever it's coming. With twenty four to.
Twenty three, Cincinnati Bengals win this one. Why because that guy Joe Burrow also has that guy Jamar Chase and even T Higgins, but especially against zone coverage, which is something we see a lot of from the Chargers. What does Jamar Chase do?
Oh, you know, just.
All of the yards, all of the yards after the catch, all of the catches, all of the things that you want a wide receiver to do. He has all of the yards at them right like, this is a very bad matchup for this defense. If you look to see the quality of the quarterbacks that the Chargers have faced so far this season, I know Patrick Mahomes is on that list. However, I think right now, the way Joe Burrow is playing with Jamar Chase on the field, that to me forecast the upset.
I'm right there with you, Cynthia, I agree. I've got a Bengals win as well, twenty six to twenty four because looking at that Chargers defense. To Cynthia's points, let's look at the way that they've gone through this season. Here's a game against the Cleveland Browns. That's one of five teams that the Chargers have played. I know that nobody's scored twenty points. More than twenty points against this team, but look at the schedule. There's one against against the
Raiders with Gardner Minshew early season. Bo Knicks. That Patrick Mahomes win came before the New Hopkins trade, and it also came while they just lost Rashid Rice. Together, these teams, the Panthers, Titans, Browns of Broncos average seventeen point six points a game. That may be why they haven't had anybody score twenty. It's not to take a shot at them.
It's just to say this Bengals offense is very good space while both of us were getting right.
Now, so there being like it's offensive, what's going on right now? You want to talk about it? I like, but I'm gonna talk about easy matchup in this game. You know who the Chargers get to face the Bengals defense. They've been trash all year.
You're gonna give me.
A just Greg in Los Angeles with the Herbeast across the street.
I'm loving it. I mean, what an easy matchup.
Yeah, Joe Burrow is great and he has to go up against a great defense that cancels each other out. Meanwhile, you got her Beast running through one of the weakest secondaries in the league. This rush defense is weak. Justin Herbert right now is doing things on the football field. I'm like Jim Herbaugh, harba. I mean, I'm losing my mind here.
Waw they're combining.
He's just so physically impressive.
The combination of the running ability and then the deep passes. And the weakest group in this game is the Cincinnati Bengals. It's the reason why Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons out of any quarterback in the league and putting up thirty plus a game, and it keeps losing those games.
And I think the Chargers are built to win a shootout. That's what they're gonna do.
All right, Jess Greg going with the Chargers will stay.
Jaman hendrickson call, He's coming for you.
Okay, Ray Shawn Slater, we got taxed.
Maybe they'll actually be able to sat Greg handle it. Staying in the AFC. The Broncos almost shot the defending champs last week. Almost Alan Broncos trying to rebound after that gut punch last week they play host to Kirko Chains and the Falcons. Do the Falcons bounce back from also a pretty nasty losson.
Yeah, No, I gave my score before all the injury reports our final, so right now I have twenty two to twenty one in favor of Denver. It gets even more dramatic in Denver's favor because Zach Allen's back. He's good, He's on the like. That is a huge deal up the center right there. But I really want to talk about bo Nicks. Why because his O line has really
been helping him out a ton. If you look at the Battle of the Trenches, the Broncos actually win both sides of this, but bo Nicks has done the thing that everyone kind of rolled their eyes when Sean Payton's like, we're gonna have him uses athleticism strategically and then start making easier passes and then roll out to deeper passes. He had a ton of yards to Courtland Sutton against
the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. So the guy is making these next level passes already, and we, like I said, like you know, Sean said it, we were all kind of like, okay, whatever. We've seen Bonnicks play a billion college games, but he's actually doing it.
So it's it's pretty darn.
Impressive, right and he's getting supported by guys up front pass protecting, but also in the running game. I think Odric Estimate not just a good fantasy pickup, but in reality, I think he's going to be an upgrade from DeVante Williams. I have the Broncos winning this game twenty three to sevent just a little more juice. I think in the backfield right now, he can bring you some big playability and toughness in between the tackles. This Falcons front line,
to me, they're just not tough. And these are two teams that are close. If this game was in Lama, maybe I would feel differently. But I'm also applying the rarely used just like Greg test here, that the Falcons don't feel like a seven and four team. They feel a lot more like a six and five team. Both of these teams feel like six and five teams. So they're gonna find their level with the Broncos win.
Yeah, and that will be exactly even as we are exactly even in all taking the Denver Broncos in this matchup, because it's something where Cynthia talked about the bonus of the Denver offensive line. They're going up against objectively the worst pass rush in the National Football League. Bo Nicks will have time to throw off, time to pick his spots in the secondary, and I'll also have time to scramble, something he does at the fifth highest rate in the league.
He's also top ten in time to throw, taking over a whole three seconds to get rid of the ball. The Falcons with the lowest pressure rate in the entire league. So, just as a fun thought, experiment. I want to see how long bo can be back there chilling against this Atlanta Falcons defense. We meme away single.
You're gonna be like, oh okay, just check my watch. Patrick.
We've already seen what his fellow rookie Drake na cound do scrambling around for eleven seconds. Maybe he comes back and goes even longer. That was the one and only time the Jets have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, way back in Super Bowl three, five months before Neil and Buzz stepped on the Moon for the first time. We got a Jets Colts rematch Sunday as Aaron Rodgers squares off against Anthony Richardson's Cynthia. Is there a team you can guarantee like Joe did, wins this game.
I mean, I have the Jets twitting. I'm not gonna go with that guaranteed. In fact, Greg and I were talking about this. This is where me and the model are at odds.
Here.
Model says three points for the Jets twenty two to nineteen. Cynthia's heart says Colts.
Whatever.
So you're gonna look at the number and say, Okay, I'm threading the needle here and that's why. But you know what else is threading the new Aaron Rodgers from the pocket. He's stayed in the pocket the most in his career per next Gen Stats, like eighty eight percent of the time he's been passing from the pocket since next Gen stats were born in twenty sixteen.
That's his highest rate.
When I'm looking at where a vulnerable point of this defense is for the Colts, Guess what when quarterbacks stay in the pocket, they're allowing a bunch of yards, a bunch of yards after the catch. I know DeVante Adams didn't practice, so you're gonna want to keep your eye on that for fantasy purposes. That just means more love to the other guys, if not three point win for the Jets.
Yeah, my head and heart are at odds here because my head's also telling me that the Jets are going to win this game. It's not a pick that I necessarily want to make. My heart says Gurgle. Gurgle is since blood coursing through my veins. But I'm just looking at the defensive structure of the Indianapolis Colts and Gus Bradley's squad, as is traditional, plays a lot of zone and unless they shock the world and shock me and break that tendency. What has Aaron Rodgers done against man defense?
Per Next Gen Stats? His total EPA, his expected points add it is negative fifty one against man covers this season. Maybe Gus plays man, but if he plays zone that there's going to be opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and DeVante Adams and Garrett Wilson figure things out to get some points.
I mean, I am going to be trash talking to you all Sunday when the Colt.
I'll deserve it.
I mean you even spent that colds Field negging Aaron Rodgers.
The Colts are going to win this game. This is not even an upset.
The only upset is that Patrick picked the Jets. I mean, they've been on fraud Watch all year and we've nailed it.
You're allowed to still change your pick. Good effort here.
I'll try to convince you watch bad Jets run defense highlights all.
Years, suggesting Anthony Richardson is as good as Kyler Murray at running the football.
Absolutely.
I think if you build a running game around Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor that can be as dynamic.
Levis.
Yeah, then the Cardinals a few weeks here. So yeah, they're bad in pass defense too, sneakily like, but it's really the run defense that to me, it's Sauce Gardner in this really lightweight secondary who can never get anyone down. Jonathan Taylor's playing well. I feel great about this game. You're crazy you can still switch though.
Yeah, I mean it's clear. I don't want them to do it. Just you got to pick what you think is gonna happen. Let's get to some quick picks when we make picks in rapid succession. The Jags and Lions of Motown, Detroit coming off a wild Sunday night come back against Houston. Do they get Jared golf back doing well?
Yes, I think they win forty one to seven in this game.
I'm making it, you know, this big of a score in part because the Lions they felt like they lost last week, so they want to prove a point. They're a great team that feels like they're coming off a loss even though they won. It's too bad for the Jaguars and Mac Jones. Let's watch a little Brian Brandt tape Defensive Player of the Year candidate. What he is doing is just so difficult playing premiere level cornerback play, essentially because he's great in man coverage but always reading
the quarterback's eyes and making plays on the ball. Mac Jones versus Brian Brandt is not a fair fight. This secondary that they have rebuilt in one offseason is absolutely fantastic.
They hold the Jags down.
All right. Let's go to the Vikings Titans in Nashville. Sam Donald squad squeaking out a win against the Jags last week. What do they do here, Cynthy?
I think they win pretty handily as well. I have twenty three to eighteen in this matchup. I want to talk about Andrew Van Ginkle. Has anyone ever matched their teams facade as much as Van Ginkle? No, he is a Viking, but also he's a Swiss Army knife because he's the only there's only two players need National Football League.
Wo've lined up in pass.
Pro, they've lined up in coverage, and they've lined up against the run on one hundred snaps each.
So he truly is. And by the way, he's got to pick six. He's got sacks.
Like this guy's doing everything and he's doing it as a Viking and a Viking.
It just fits so well, yeah, so many guys don't. We have tried to shoehorn like Mario Williams in the pass coverage. It's like, but Andrew Van Ginkle, it just it just makes sense.
But he also just looks like a Viking.
Yeah right Upfleet doesn't act like a Viking, you know.
No, Pillager Brown's in the Saints. Darren Rizzy brought some life back to New Orleans. I'm taking Jamis and the reunion game here got the Browns winning twenty to nineteen. Of course, the super Dome, Who's always going to appreciate Jamis's efforts before the game. During the game, they're gonna have to deal with Miles Garrett. The deep passing that
Derek Carr relies on will be unavailable. When ninety five, who was playing great before the break, had a week off, rookie to Leise Luaga having a solid season but has given up some quick pressures. Well now he has to play against the king of quick pressures in Miles Garrett. Time for this guy or that guy here on game debut the Chiefs and the Bills in the Game of the Year Player props for the star players in the game.
Starting with Greg Rosenthal, who's more likely to throw over one and a half touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
I'm gonna go with the guy who's been throwing more touchdowns all year.
That's Josh Allen. He's putting up those digits. I think it could be an MVP season for Josh Allen. A very difficult match. I see how it's his past TDS. Obviously, if you get overall touchdowns, if you could include rushing, it feel like a home run. Ultimately, I think Josh Allen is going to play his best in this game.
He'll have enough weapons.
Between Khalio Sakir, it does look like Amari Cooper is gonna play getting James Cook involved as a receiver.
Give me Josh Allen in a great.
Season, all right, So that's one for the Bills. Let's see if Cynthia who's going over sixty and a half rushing yards, Kareem Hunt or James Cook.
Well, I would pick both of them if I could, But the one that I think is more likely to or more likely to have more rushing yards is actually James Cook. When I'm looking at the opportunity for Kareem Hunt, some of those are pass catches. I know it's the same thing for James Cook, but this entire offense, this is based on the run, especially if there is any sort of injury to Spencer Brown at all. Run the
football to keep everyone in manageable downs and distances. So you're really not letting the pass rush that's coming from all of these different sides get in your way. So Joe Brady will design James Cook runs and I believe it will go over. I think I have like seventy eight or something. That's a very high number. Again, I'm conservative, all right.
Head to head, we've got two bills picks. I will take in receptions a couple of Chase Travis kelce or Nu Hopkins five or more receptions, and I do believe they'll both hit that number. But I'm going with Travis Kelcey here because let's go back and look. Since they go and get DeAndre Hopkins, what is Travis Kelcey done target wise in the past three weeks? What about twelve against Las Vegas? What about sixteen against Tampa Bay? What
about twelve against Denver? All those targets are going to lead to Travis getting five.
Or more season. We're conservative.
Yeah, it feels super conservatives. Let's do one more. Amari Cooper should be back, we think for Buffalo anytime touchdown score, Amari Cooper or Khalil Shakiir.
I like Khalil Shakir in general, the more consistent target grabber all season long. Also, when a guy's coming off an injury, he hasn't been with the team that long. It just feels like Shakier is a guy who has built up chemistry over time a little more likely than Cooper, who's a great player. And I hope in a way that I'm wrong, not for the viewers if they're taking this advice, but just that I want to see a healthy, productive Amari Cooper.
Sneaky Dawson Knox touchdown is what I like.
Yes, the Chiefs have seen some issues stopping tight ends on the season. Again, Mahome Allen's one of the better rivalries in the NFL. But before their grandparents were a twinkle in someone's eye, there was another rivalry brewing just off of Lakeney Tom to Seize the Season presented by Caesars Sportsbook, always jarring to see somebody hitting a fridge and effigy in that video there the Packers and the Bears first touchdown score odds. Leading the way is Josh Jacobs.
One Bear sneaks on there, DeAndre Swift. We'll see if the offense gets better then Jayden Reid, Romeo Dobbs and Tucker Craft. As we get into this matchup, more Packers coming off of a bye. Meanwhile, the Bears firing their off as a coordinator earlier in the week. What happened Cynthia Green.
Bay wins this game twenty five to seventeen. That's what I have, But I do want to talk about what might look different now that we have Thomas Brown, who comes from the McVeigh Shanahan tree. Because we've seen poor Caleb Williams be under pressure.
There's I asked for sacks.
We had thirty eight to choose from, and nine of them were unblocked pressures.
Both of those are the.
Highest marks in the National Football League. So what are you going to do to protect this man? Number One, You're gonna have heavier formations like twelve. This team's actually better running out of twelve than they are passing out of twelve, which is, by the way, two tight ends, one running back on the field. I think they're going to start adding a few passes here, because if you look at a vulnerable point in the Packers defense, it's
defending passes out of twelve. So give Caleb Williams some easier passes to complete. Please don't make him get sacked. Like just upright, Kayleb Williams.
This is the one we like.
Yeah, we want to see him at least standing at some point. And it was a struggle against the Patriots. I think it's going to be a struggle here. I've got a twenty six to sixteen win, so we'll just change a point from both teams from Cynthia's score. But I think that they get a healthy Packers team and the ability to run the ball. The Bears defense giving up sixty six points in the last three losses to
Kawan Brisker goes to ir. They've had to carry this team and now come of this Packers attack where they can do it in a lot of different ways. Josh Jacobs top five in the NFL running to the strong side of formation, and then he's also got eighty five yards over expected running from the shotgun. Just so many different ways that they can attack, and I don't know what this Bear's attack is going to look like, but I'll have faith in it.
GRD, I don't neither look your scores. You have the Packers covering, and yet I think you're being way too generous.
It's over for this Bears team. It's thirty one to ten.
I suggested showing some Andrew Billings highlights for this package that's the Bears nose tackle. Our producer said, can you give us something a little more sexy?
And I said, what's.
A little next than that?
Back here?
Yeah, some run stopping Andrew Billings of the Bears. Now I'm pining this out because he's no longer playing for the Bears. Unfortunately, he is on injured reserve. And since he's gone onto injured reserve, their run defense has collapsed. So everyone talks about how much Caleb Williams is struggling.
That's obvious. This team has lost forty eight to twelve by the last two weeks. But they are not a good run defense.
This whole idea that, oh, well, Matt eber Fleus, at least his defense is at lockdown. They're thirtieth in the NFL in efficiency against the run. The Packers are going to run all over them on Sunday. I do not think it's closed. Stop telling me this is the best rivalry in the league. It hasn't been a rivalry for like two decades. Right, get them Greg excited? Come on Bear Sorry time now for.
What we're calling just for kicks, for better or worse. Kickers playing a huge role in Week ten. So this segment is dedicated to Yes, get the kickball, some love, talking to some kicker props. We start with the Broncos kicker Will Lutz went zero for two on field goals last week, including having the game winner blocked. Will he make more or less than one and a half field goals on Sunday?
Easiest decision I made all week. We're going more than one and.
A half field goals Will Lutt's revenge game after the Chiefs blocked him. You know what Sean Payton did first thing he did when he got to Denver, he said, I need to build a culture. Who is the one man who I can build it with. It's Will Ruts. I'm gonna send a draft pick to New Orleans. It's not a conditional draft pick. It's a straight up pick for Will Lutz. He's gonna come to Denver and he's gonna be hitting moonshots through that thin air more than one and a half.
All right, So let's go to Jake Bates Cynthia, because he was money last week for the Lions. He almost still counts in the NFL. Will least score more or less than eight and a half points a huge number against the Jags?
I don't care. The answer is more and yes.
At first I did to say more because more is fun, and then I actually did a little math because that is how big of a loser I am in my spare creaer, just to make sure here, and he actually goes at least nine points in fifty five points in a whopping fifty five percent of simulations. So maybe it has something to do with the fact that they aren't playing as like a game where they're favored that highly because they're coming off a loss, right, So perhaps it's that, But that's model surprised me.
Even Let's go all right, so we got a couple mores and young Way Coup went one for four on field goals last week. The question asked to me is will he score more or less than six and a half points Sunday against the Broncos. I say it's actually less and it's not anything to do with Young Waycup. I think he'll kick great in the atmosphere. It's just gonna have to be from deep because I think the Denver Broncos will move the ball. Field position will not
be good, and so Young Way Coup. Maybe he gets a sixty five yarder, maybe there's the fifty eight yarder in there, but the Broncos are going to have the ball. There's not gonna be a lot of opportunity. And I think he does. He gets a chance to bounce back, but six and a half points it's just too much. So I'm ruining the fun.
It's a less Okay, it's.
A fun bummer of a year.
Let's do this music. How can you have fun with this music?
Fun taking us through? So that was just for kicks here on Game Deview and folks. Salute to Service is the year round effort by the NFL and his charitable partners to honor, empower, and connect with our nation service members, veterans, and their families. At this time each year, the NFL reinforces its support gratitude to those who have served and those who continue to serve. Visit nfl dot com slash Salute to learn about the NFL's impact with its salute
to service partners. Let's get some more games in, get some more quick picks. Rams and Patriots and New England. Fresh off the beatdown they put on the Bears, do they do it again here? Gret.
I believe the Rams get this victory.
I believe they cover the spread too, twenty three to seventeen in this game because of the defense. It's just such a mismatch. Drake may is doing the best that he can back there. But I thought even last week against Chicago, a little up and down out of the rookie quarterback. And now you have to go against one of the best defensive lines in the league. It's time like we can just call them that, like the numbers say it, the eye test says it, the talent says it.
Jared Verse and the rest of this game with Kobe Turner, that is such a big mismatch. I think the Rams win, and they win big enough because of their defense.
Rite it down in penn as well. A Kyron Williams return to the end zone. It hasn't happened in two games. It hasn't happened on the ground in three games, but I like him to score a touchdown this weekend.
He is. Let's go to the Raiders and Dolphins. They seem to beat the Rams as they try to win two in a row for the first time all season. Do they get it done here?
Yep, they do twenty six to seventeen in this matchup. I know that there's a lot of different things on this offense for the Raiders, but one thing that's consistent for the Dolphins number ten. If you're looking at the opportunity when there's quick passes to number ten in space, the Raiders defense, they don't have any answer to this. Really, they don't have any good answers. Both him and a
Chan are going to have huge games. I think that is a difference maker, and also the catch and run this is I know I feel mean to the Raiders because I think it's going to be exciting with the new offensive coordinator, some great new things going on. But I still think Dolphins get it done.
I disagree. I think the Raiders cover.
I think I think you're say the Raiders are going to win too.
Much for this Dolphins team.
Bad offensive line right now, and the Raiders pass rush is pretty good.
They core, well, we'll see they get some. Tom mollf let's go to the Battle for Texas going down Monday night in Dallas. Texan's coming off a devastating loss on that Jig batesfield goal. I think that they bounced back here and win at twenty three to ten. And congratulations to c. J. Stroud because he gets back the leading receiver for the Houston Texans. Yes, still, despite not playing since October sixth, Nico Collins still leads the Texans in
receiving yards. To play against Cooper Rush or Trey Lance. You know Nico won't have to play against the Sun because the game's at night. So a big win and a big bounce back win for the Houston Texans. We're not done here yet. On Game Deview up next, we're giving you some of our favorite player props for Week eleven. Greg's didn't hit last week, so he.
Owes you all his seller the week before, which we will get you the week before that numbers going out.
One at a time. We come back here on Game Deviet Sunday at nine am Eastern Rich Eisen, Kurt Warner, Cidia Friedland, and the whole game. Get you set for NFL Game Day morning. Lil Lane joins the show live to talk about his beloved Green Bay Packers, plus the guys, tell us why Josh Allen and the Bills can spoil Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs perfect season, all that and more Sunday at nine a m. Eastern.
I am not shorter than right.
You are not shorter than a little way in either. No, another member of the cast now that you're holler them.
Weezf baby, and he ain't asthmatic sound for write this down here on Game Debut as we get to some of our favorite predictions for the week, and we're gonna have to have notes because our Greg's platon playing catch up.
Okay, yeah, I feel a personal responsibility Game Debut viewers because I've been killing.
It with the picks this year.
We've been on fire, and yet my write this downs have been struggling. So I'm giving you a winner and I'm gonna combine them this week.
Two picks smash him up.
Packers covering the five and a half points against the Bears, one of my favorite lines of the whole season. This Bears team, It's over over like they have given up on this coach staff. They're not talented, they're not cohesive. It's not happening. Packers cover. But you put that in one bucket and you combine it with Josh Jacobs seventy one and a half rushing yards more. I told you earlier how bad this rush defense is without Andrew Billings.
The sexy Andrew Billings got. Josh Jacob's rushing attack for the Packers is going to be sexy as hell.
He might hit this in the first half.
So Packers cover, Packers and Josh Jacobs over seventy one and a half.
It's just the opportunity to package picks.
Come on, He's literally package anyways. So let's go with mine.
I have Alvin Kamara to have more than thirty nine and a half receiving yards. You talked about those Miles Garrett pressures. They're coming fast, baby. Derek Carr is going to need to get rid of the football. Are there the regular normal amount of receivers for him?
Huh?
He was finding guys that we didn't even think would be a part of the game play.
On last week.
So if you don't think Alvin Kamara is going to have at least forty yards.
Yikes, you can package that with love eggs.
Love package all all of our picks together. But we'll see if secretly I've been sneaking Greg's phone number into all of my picks. For just kidding it. Cooper Rush will throw for under one hundred and eighty three and passing yards against the Texans, and it's making these safe picks, Greg that have gotten me to seven and three on the season. On write this down, because yes, I don't think he's going to have forty five passing yards that he did his first start of the season against the Eagles.
I think he might get even double that. But there's also the potential that Cooper Rush might not play the.
Entire gam make it to the end of the game. So that's great.
So yeah, come join me on a journey into safety. Thanks for watching. Game Debut presented by Mercedes Bins for Cynthia Freeland and Greg Rosental. I'm Patrick Claibhn. We'll see you next week.
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