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Everybody.
Welcome to Game Debut, presented by Mercedes Benz, Patrick Claiba. I'm back here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland.
We enjoyed last week except for the fact that.
Greg Rosenthal has almost put enough distance to win the regular season Picks Championship.
Congratulations, Greg, I.
Thought this is the part where you get on me for picking the Panthers last night. I don't like this beginning part where we talk about my good record. Can we put it up at least it just makes me even more unlikable.
Okay, Well, instead of a picture of your actual face, we'll go to a picture that you love so much with you rocking the crown.
One hundred and sixty one and ninety five.
It's good, very good. Congratulations.
I've noticed Cynthia hasn't been as warm and friendly to me around the office.
Exactly normal.
Yeah, you know, I feel like I'm like, well, we'll see what happens in the playoffs.
Much like you did last year. Okay, different record, it's all cumulative.
Let's get to the actually Bill's Dolphins. The game of the week the team's met back in Week four forever ago. Y'all remember that Josh Allen went superhero mode through four touchdowns. He ran one in Buffalo all over the Fins forty eight to twenty, and we get the rematch coming up Sunday night.
The stakes are high.
The winner of Bill's Dolphins not only wins the AFC East, but they get the two seed overall in the AFC. Also the scenario where the Bills, if they lose, they can miss the playoffs entirely.
What's gonna happen, Cynthia.
I think this is.
Gonna be a close game, but I think the Bills managed to pull it off. I like how everyone's like in South Beach. They're not actually in South Beach. They're a little bit further north than that, Davy, But we're good here twenty five to twenty four. And I want to talk about Josh Allen and his O line. There's a couple of things that I want to point out. Because Josh Allen isn't necessarily the easiest quarterback to block, where he holds onto the ball longer than most, and
he's always the threat to scramble. They don't often know necessarily what he's gonna do if they're under pressure. But this team thirty one point one. That's his season rate being under pressure. That's the eighth lowest. And by the way, his sack rate three point five is the lowest. So lots of credit to Dion Dawkins's left tackle there, Walter Payton min of the Year nominee. Really interesting stuff here. And by the way, they also have a forty seven
point three run success rate. That rush rate, that's a really big deal. That is number one in the NFL. That's better than the Niners. That's better than the Ravens. That's better than.
The Eagles, it's better than the Rams. Wow, better than everyone.
I was gonna name all thirty one teams, but didn't if we had enough.
Time for that.
You know, I love it when I'm on the same side as the model here.
I have the Bills winning this game too.
It's a little further in terms of the margin, twenty seven to twenty three, and it's because of the defense in Buffalo, Josh Allen the offense and they're ups and their downs get so much attention that I think we've lost one of the best coaching jobs by Sean McDermott. On the defensive side in a long time, ed Oliver
there has stepped up as their premier defensive tackle. But in the secondary where they've had those injuries, they've really seen Razul Douglass this pick up, step up, Christian Bevenford step up. They've made a decision to bench Von Miller entirely. I think that's helping them out. And then their linebackers and right dake Onon Jones is back, and then their linebacker position. When they last played the Bills, uh, they
had Matt Milano. Now they've had Bernard and Terrell Dotson step up, and since Week thirteen they are fifth in EPA per play allowed. I think it's the defense that gets them over the line. It's it's so clear you win, you make the playoffs. It's much more clear than our producers telling me, oh, does the picks competition continue pass this week and they're like, well, we'll see how this week goes.
I mean that makes no sense.
Well, I mean ultimately last year you said it's a different one in the playoffs because that I had one going away and.
You couldn't get back. Now this year we changed.
Depends I I'm winning. Yeah, we're gonna, we're gonna.
We're gonna nail something down before the playoffs start. But we were unanimous here. I've got the Buffalo Bills winning this one as well. Twenty eight twenty six. Of course, injury is a huge factor from We're gonna hope Jael and Wattle plays in this game. No more Bradley Chubb for the rest to this year and maybe a lot of next year. But a huge factor in this game. Last week for the Dolphins was Duke Riley matched up with Justice Hill.
It did not go well. It was the Justice Hill game.
He doesn't have to play a dangerous running quarterback with a gifted pass catching running back this Oh wait, now it's gonna be James Cook, who caught one pass in the first matchup, but that pass was for forty eight yards. I think he's gonna get a few more targets Sunday and the Bills win meme away offense.
We do still think the Dolphins are good.
Yes, Dolphins fans, I vote you most likely to meet.
Us, so most likely to meet us.
But that's why we do it, because we want to be mean, So we win no matter what.
Tom for more or less.
Let's talk about some player props for Bills Dolphins greg more or less than two hundred and eighty three and a half total yards for Josh.
Allen, it's gonna be more. It's gonna be way more. It's either gonna be way more or way less, because it's either gonna be a disaster.
Don't you agree. I mean, he was a bit of a mess last week. It's like it's either great or it's awful.
And I don't know what to think about this Dolphins defense who had played so well but last week really collapsed. And Patrick mentioned how Bradley Chubb is out. They're also without Xavi and Howard, their great cornerback, and so in a big time game. I do trust Josh Allen. He's been in so many of these over the last few years.
He gets it done well.
If he does turn the ball over a lot, maybe that's more yards for him.
Cynthia will talk.
About Lola though for more or less than one and a half touchdowns.
We're going for more here Tyreek Hill. See that guy running into the end zone. I know he was held in check last time they matched up. However, this is a guy who's gotten the most space to catch those downfield passes. That's not like they are infallible in that secondary. I still think that Tyreek Hill really good as it turns out.
Hey, you know what, Cynthia, I also agree Tyrik Hill is very good. That's why I think he will have over ninety one receiving yards. Earlier in this year, this would not even be a question, but Tyreek dealing with that ankle injury for the past few weeks. I still think, you know, fifty percent of Tyreek Hill still gets a pretty clol to one hundred receiving yards. So I got more there. Let's go over to the NFC now, though, because everybody's been talking about the wild endings to last
year's Cowboys, I mean last week's Cowboys Lions game. I'm very sorry, Cynthia, but let's not forget about Ceede Lamb's historic performance.
Back to throw the blutch him from the safety spot and crush out of states, then lunch to his life, throws on the round in.
The middle of the Atlamic A fifty You ever get anywhere near him?
Lambs the cruel. If they wanted to CD Lamb ninety two years Trump get us not for.
The Dallas touchdown.
Time going to drive to excellence preserved by Mercedes been ceds. The game would have been even better if the side of the end zone wasn't lava. Cowboys and Commanders, Dallas controls their playoff destiny. With a win, they claim the NFC East thrown and the two seed in the NFC.
Do all of those things happen, though, of.
Course they happened, Patrick, It's they're playing the Commanders.
They haven't won in two months.
Forty one to seven is the score, so that thirteen and a half points.
That's not nearly enough.
It's partly because of this Cowboys defense and Mico Parsons. And when I watch Michael Parsons each week, he still has a chance to win Defensive Player of the Year. This is a theme throughout this show. All these defensive players have a chance for one last statement that you remember when I watch Parsons, I think I know the sacks don't say it, but he feels like he's the best defensive player in the league, and some other stats do say it. He has the quickest time to pressure
ye in the league. He has the most pressure in the league. He has the best pressure percentage, in the league. He's faced the most double teams in the league, and despite those double teams, he has the most pressures through those double teams.
And so I love it when the.
Next gen stats in the research department just supports my eyeball test, which is that this guy actually is the best.
I love it when you talk about the research department sex up the research department there for us.
I love it.
I'm with you on this one. I have a closer margin. I have thirty to nineteen in this matchup. I'm curious to see what version of this O line we get heading into the playoffs. We know the Cowboys are going. They brought in Lyle Collins this week. You don't often see that happen so late in the game for a team that's really this kind of hopeful in terms of where their playoff inspirations or where they think they're going to go. Aspirations are going to lie. So I'm curious
to see. We've seen some areas where they've really been hampered by injuries and other times where it hasn't really been such a big issue. So I'm really monitoring this closely. It's not that I think that Washington has the end all be all of pass rush. But the interior, those two guys in the middle, they are really good. They both went to Alabama. They're both really good. You can look them up if you want to. Jonathan Allen, drunk pain whatever.
We're good.
But they're going to be an interesting matchup for this O line.
Yeah, at one point the defensive line had a lot of talent in total, and then they decided to donate that defensive line too.
There seem like they're sitting some people there. I see what you're doing.
Yeah, it's unanimous here. I've got Dallas as well. I think Dallas gets out in front and actually coase to a win in this one. So thirteen and a half feels a little bit rich for me. But I've got a number. If you like correlation and causation.
I do.
I got a number for you. Is the Canary and the coal Mine. The harbinger.
Ricodoubell when he carries the ball more than five times, Dallas is five and zero with an average margin of victory of twenty seven points.
Look at the numbers, folks, The numbers are never wrong.
You give Rico Dowdle the ball six times and guarantees guarantees the Dallas lit It is tough to find a spot to talk about the Washington Commanders.
Late in twenty twenty three. We're gonna stay in the NFC East, though.
The Eagles have lost four of their last five games, none more shocking than the disappointment against the Cardinals, which now hand off Connor straight ahead geese to the goal line.
And the cross for the go ahead touchdown.
James Conner punches it in and the Cards take the lead.
Hurt's waiting around, lets it develop, keeps one for the end zone.
It is they are set there and that's the game.
The Cardinals come to Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles.
The Eagles and the Giants Philly can still win the NFC East, but they do need some help. They're gonna need to do so without Devonte Smith. Greg Can they do it.
I think they do it, but I think it's difficult because everything's difficult for the Eagles right now. Thirty four to thirty is my score a shootout, and it's Jalen Hurts who ultimately gets him over the finish line to win this game. Even without DeVante Smith. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Hearing people talk about the Eagles this week and it's like, oh, Jalen Hurts, He's not been great against the Zero Blitz and like they've had
some miscommunication offense. Has anyone watched this team? It's entirely the defense. Jalen Hurts has played great in the last two weeks. He played great last week against Arizona. They're one of the worst, if not the worst defense in the league, despite being a preseason Super Bowl favorite. My pick numbers all say it it's the defense, and Jalen Hurts is playing excellent football.
Is he the MVP?
No, But he's like a top seven or eight quarterback and they have a top seven or eight offense by basically every metric you look at. It's all on the defense, and my guy, Jalen Hurts is gonna get it done against this Giants team.
I love that I also have a win. I have a more Winny win than you. Twenty seven to twenty one is my final score. But I do want to give a little love to Tyrod Taylor. Why because he's actually making this Giants offense not just.
Like watchable, but fun to watch.
Look at this deep pass ye right in the bread basket also their last matchup. He was a difference maker, his ability to run, his ability to withstand pressure, because we know this O line is an area that they will be looking to improve come draft season. I just feel like, in a game where these two franchises not the best of friends, not BFFs trying to help each other out Tyrod Taylor, they're gonna have a bunch of fun things to watch him, like succeed and do well.
And I got to give him some love because it's not easy to come in and those circumstances and perform well, and he has.
And it would be tough to have high expectations for Ty if you were playing the twenty twenty two Eagles defense. But as Greg mentioned, it has been a struggle. If you go back to those three games before they made the switch at defensive coordinator, they gave up thirty four points a game to three teams that had top ten offenses in the NFL, And so they bring in Matt Patricia and they've given up.
They've given up twenty six points a game.
Which is better, but that's against the seventeenth, twenty fourth, and thirtieth ranks scoring offenses in the league. And I want to go back and look at their best defensive play from last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Sidney Brown gets this interception, runs it all the way back for a touchdown.
This was a bad throw by Kyler people.
Initially it looked like it was a miscommunication, but Kyler's looking that way to that side of the field the entire way. On the backside, Greg Dortsch has opened up the scene for a touchdown because Sidney Brown is running and covering grass like there's there's nobody over there.
It's just a.
Tough ideally stop the Eagles literally the entire game, and it was.
Because a bad offense. Despite all that, we're all on.
Don't let us down. See if you're hurting my feelings.
Coming up, it's win and in for CJ.
Stroud and the Texans boll Demico Ryan squad take care of business Saturday against the Colts. The loser misses the playoffs.
Our picks next.
On game debut.
We're back on game devut and oh the AFC South a division of intrigue currently favored the Jacksonville Jaguars with the Texans and the Colts right there.
In fact, let's spend an entire block on the AFC South as we first yeah to get into some winning moves presented by Intoit Turbo Tax. The Jags and the Titans first up, where a Jacksonville win they clinched the AFC South for the second street season. Ryan Tannehill starts for the Titans. Does Ryan Tannehill in the hopes of the folks in Duvau?
I don't think he does.
You know what, he played well last week, well enough that he could scare the Jaguars. But I like the Jaguars to get to the playoffs, win this game twenty four to sixteen. I don't like that so much going into the game is based on how healthy the Jaguars passing game is.
Christian Kirk is the dude.
I think turt It took him getting hurt for everyone to realize how much.
He's the dude.
But when Trevor Lawrence needs to make a play, he starts with Kirk and then he goes. I think to Ingram is his next choice. And Kirk has been out for a handful of weeks. He's been aiming towards this game. He's questionable on the injury port, so's Trevor Lawrence probably gonna play so's Zay Jones a little more uncertain. But this is their passing game, and if they're all healthy, they can take advantage of a Titans defense that has given up a lot of big passes and I think they find a way.
But if they're not, like, this feels a little dicey.
It always feels dicey between two divisions, these ANFC South teams. It just feels like sometimes you can roll some dice and figure out what happens there. But I have Jacksonville winning this one twenty three to nineteen.
In this matchup.
I do want to talk about an area of positivity for the Titans, and that is their defensive front. If you're looking at what Harold Landry who went to Boston College and Denico Audrey had been able to do, it's been problematic for opposing quarterbacks. And if I'm looking at you talk about the health of potentially Trevor Lawrence, et cetera. One of the reasons why this is such a problem is the old line. There's some issues there. They got some issues there. So I don't know, if let's say, look,
we're seeing questionable it's likely Trevor Lawrence will play. He kind of hated not being able to start last week. He's got a perfect attendance type of guy, and it didn't go.
But if there is an upset, it's good.
It's because these pass rushers are going to be terrorists to him.
You feel like a perfect attendants type of definitely ninety No.
Yeah, not if you're hobbling and people are chasing you.
But everybody has that goal.
It's like, I'm going to break the record, and you know, it's hard. It's hard to play every single game in the league where the injury rate is one hundred percent. But speaking of one hundred percent, and I chied all of the time win probability because I'm.
Watching to go up and down. It's math. I don't know the numbers.
Josh Allen has added one hundred percent of win probability over one hundred percent on his sacks this year per Next Gen Steps. It means because we always talk about, oh, this decision led to an increase of win probability. The best decision that the Jags make is having Josh Allen. It's good to sack the other team's quarterback, and on those he's generated the second most pressures in the NFL. The Titans offensive line really struggled. Cynthia's making the face
because here's the thing, win probability. Eh, but when it confirms my priors, yay, I love it. Josh Allen puts the team on his back and the Jags win. Take the step for what you know?
I want to know how you're making a stinky face.
I got to look into this.
Does that mean they would have only won half of as many games as they won this year?
Maybe he got them a whole Maybe the numbers might not.
Be the last time here. Josh right not excited.
Well, clarify.
Sticking with the AFC South, the Texans still have a shot at the playoffs, and with CJ.
Stroud back under center, anything's possible.
First down, it's a Tennessee twelve yard live.
CJ fakes the game, dumps.
It off short left, Brevin Jordan across.
The five walks in touchdown houstonton the hect of a drive there orchestrated by c J. Stroud, Texans and Cults.
If the Jags lose to the Titans, the winner of this game actually wins the division.
What do you see taking place?
I think the Texans are going to the playoffs. They get this win twenty three to twenty.
Why not.
It's gonna be more fun to watch c J. Stroud in the playoffs. So this is a playoff game. It's very exciting. I think it's a game for all these guys to get known. They've played sixteen straight weeks at one pm Eastern, which seems impossible, but I guess they just didn't have any West Coast road trips.
C J.
Stroud returned last week after missy a couple games with that concussion, and he was really sharp. He took what the defense gave him against Tennessee. His feet look great. Some of these deep outs, the Nico Collins, that is beautiful. He just he throws that javelin and it gets exactly where he wants it to be. So when I saw him back to be in the old CJ. Stroud, I knew the Texans were gonna win this game and give us a more entertaining playoffs.
That's what I'm expecting.
I do love this playing game. It feels like like the Tuesday before March Madness starts.
This is what this is.
When I'm looking at this matchup, A one point win for the Texans twenty three to twenty two, about as close as it can get. And why because my math loves the Houston run defense. Not only have they been excellent kind of this whole season, but they've actually gotten better in recent weeks. So lots of different ways we can measure them. You want to do EPA, Okay, fine, I think they're you know, top five in pretty much
any metric that you want. But when you see everyone playing together, remember they've had some injuries over the past few weeks.
This is a really stingy front.
And by the way, I'm gonna go ahead and say here my pick for offensive for defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Innerson.
You very nice pick, in a very nice segue into the reason that I think the Houston Texas win this game. It is unanimous meme away and that's because, well, just talk about Will Arison and what he's been able to do. He's generated more pressures than any other rookie this season. It was true coming into week fifteen, he missed fifteen and sixteen, and it's still true per next g stats. The Colt's biggest mismatch in this game is deep passing against Houston. I don't think there's going to be time
for Gardner Minshew to uncork any deep shots. And I think perhaps pending one upset that I've got to pick later on in this show, which I will tease. I think the two AFC South teams are going to be in the dance this postseason.
Greg has it well, I know who's losing this.
We'll see up next.
Jordan love as Packers fans dreaming about the playoffs, but are Justin Fields and the Bears looking to play spoiler like the Lions did last year?
Are picks for Bears Packers next week?
Oh?
The Bears and the Packers. Green Bay clinches a wild card spot with a win. Justin Fields and the Bears looking to spoil things for the Cheesehead Nation for the second year in a row.
What do you see happening?
I see heartbreak for the Cheeseheads once again. The Bears go in there, get the win. They're gonna call it an upset. I know they're three point underdogs. I don't care they're playing better than the Packers right now because defensively we've talked about that, but offensively, Justin Fields is out here throwing dots in the snow. It doesn't make a difference. These throws are just outrageous. I don't even want to show you the throws where he runs around
and does something incredible athletically. He's doing that many times a game too. But the way he's throwing the football, the confidence that he's playing with, and most importantly the opponent. There's one really good defense in this game, maybe a top five defense in the NFL. That's Chicago's. Then there's another defense in this game. That one is coordinated by Joe Barry. I think the Bears get it done in a big way. It's got to feel good going into the off seas.
Yeah, you mentioned that Packers defense.
They gave up twenty four points to the Giants, thirty four points to Tampa Bay, thirty points to the Carolina Panthers, and they had.
A bounce back, but that was against Jared Hall and the Vikings.
And I'm just watching, like, after Baker had this game against Joe Barry's defense, it was, ah, yeah, Bakers, Baker's coming back. And then they go the next week and they're just getting carved up and it's happening so much. And considering as Greg mentioned, the way that justin fields and the offense are playing. I think green Bay scores, but the Bears score more one more point twenty four to twenty three.
Bears win.
Okay, So here's one where the model and the stomach they just don't see eye to I have twenty six twenty two in favor of the Green Bay Packers, which I guess would mean that, oh yeah, it's a prime number. Oh yeah, But that Joe Barry gets saved by the Bears. There's some pun there that I'm not gonna make. But there's got to be some way that this works out. But I do want to talk about montest sweat because I'm going with my gut here, and my gut would
say that the Bears win this game. Montes sweat has been this massive difference maker. There's a lot of people out there that are saying, did Ryan Poles do good job? Chase cleavelooh blah blah blah. I direct you to the Montese sweat trade. This is an epic trade. He did a good job of the GMing in this case and in many other cases. So let's just let the man live in peace, and let's just have the Bears let's get I think they're gonna get the W but the
Model doesn't. So Model says those deep crossers are going to be a problem. But you know whatever, we can talk about my guy Ryan Poles here and how good that Montes?
How about that DJ bore trade too? That's what I want. Yeah, it has got undefeated.
If we get Cynthia versus the model numbers.
I want to see and Ryan Poles, who definitely doesn't have any other big decisions to make.
What you're talking about.
It's time for quick pick presented by Zillo. The Vikings and the Lions. Detroit basically locked into the three seed. Minnesota has a glimmer like like a a little bit of a shot at the playoffs.
Do the Lions close that door?
Synth slam bam, goodbye. I have the Lions winning this one twenty six to twenty one. But I do want to show you something I'm very concerned about as a Lions fan. Yeah, did you see what Ceedee Lamb did to the Lions defense? But I felt like, why did they keep playing man coverage? You can't just single team this guy. I guess whatever, a little safety help, but the but this it did not go. Well, so I will speak truth to this and ceedee. Lamb was a big problem for.
Their line stumbling and literally they're on the ground and stumbling in every one of these I.
Understand, and that's a problem. Sure, CJGJ will be back to help out. Yes, but let's let's get that under control. I don't know who I want to play, but I don't. I'm very worried about this.
Also, it's hilarious. I've never seen that angle of the place.
CD threw his hand up the wrong direction because he was covered, and then Dak throws at ninety two yard touch Either Wayne won that game the Seahawks and the Cardinal Seattle needs to win plus a Packer's loss to make the playoffs. The leader of the Gino Smith Revolution was Greg Rosezal.
Are you picking Gino here?
Well, I'm picking Gino to score a lot of points, but I'm picking the Arizona Cardinals to win the game against the Seahawks. You think I would play it safe with the lead late, No, I'm picking the Cardinals to win this game rather thirty.
To twenty seven. It's because of Kyler.
How nice is it to watch Kyler Murray in a normal offense. Like it was like, Okay, we got to bring Cliff Kingsbury. He knows this offense. Julian, how about it's better to have Kyler playing like the rest of the NFL. Drew petsiing not a lot of heat, but I really like the way they're coordinating this offense.
And he can run, he can pass, he can do it all.
In Cliff Kingsbury's defense that Bowl game where he started a guy who had never started before.
That guy came out lights out. So we got we're here, little credit.
There there we go shout out to Cliff Kingsbury, the rams of the forty nine ers, both teams resting their starters for this one, so we're getting finally Carson Wentz versus Sam Darnold. I do hope wanted the forty nine ers twenty six to twenty three in this one. And I also want to take look back because we were ropped due to mono nucleosis back in twenty nineteen, a chance for us to see wins versus Darnold on the teams that drafted them, but because of mono, it was
Carson Wentz going out there against Luke Falk. They won thirty one to six, and now Sam's got.
A new team. But I just wanted to look back.
The Niners beat the wins led Rams by three, and we were all on the forty nine ers. Let's shift our focus to the NFC South, which has been difficult to predict to all seasons because these teams still alive. The Buck's currently the favorite to win according to fan Duel, just ahead of the Saints and the Falcons at plus six sixty.
So it's time for pizza Pizza.
Pre game predictions delivered by Little Caesars started with the Bucks and the Panthers. With a win, Tampa can finally claim the NFC South crown.
Do they finally take care of business? Cynthia?
They finally do twenty three to seventeen in this matchup.
I want to talk about the Pro Bowl here for a second.
Why because Anti Antoine Winfield Junior, you know where he's not going, Orlando on that day. He's played excellent this year. If you look at ballhawk rate, which is something we track with next Shen Stats all season.
Long, he's actually played really well. And we are the Buddha Baker Show of record.
I do know that, and he did say maybe Booters shouldn't have make it whatever, And I don't condone that at all because we love Buddha, but he should have been there.
Like I think he's in all Pro. I think it's baits and winfields. All Pro is just two safeties for both leagues.
I just was, I was like, what, okay you and I'm on round, say Brown, there's just huge snubs, huge snubs.
So I'm gonna give him some love here because obviously.
He watches this show and knows that what we say actually matters.
Facts, facts.
You know what else matters?
What's that?
You know? The Todd Bowles Bowls of Sons?
You know, Todd Bowles has been getting this you know train going, and he's gonna knock out the Panthers with a twenty six to nothing victory.
One week eight seed. And why is it twenty six to nothing?
Because I picked the Panthers last week and I'm petty and they lost twenty six tons last week and they're gonna.
Do it again. I'm sitting living and dying at the Panthers game.
I sat down at my desk at work at ten am and I said, the Panthers are gonna do it today, They're gonna smoke CJ. Bether And it was some of the worst football I've seen offensively, defensively, it was depressing, and it's a bad situation. Everything is going poorly for Carolina. This offseason can't come soon enough, and they're going up against a team that has absolutely everything to play for. And once I saw Baker Mayfield is starting, Todd Bowles
announced that he's gonna be fine. He had that rib injury, I knew it was gonna be twenty six.
Well, okay, I'm not gonna give you twenty six to nothing, but I do agree with the Buccaneers win this game. But I got good news for the Carolina Panthers and the Panthers fans. You don't actually have the least efficient passing offense in the league. That belongs in Flora Park, New Jersey. That's the New York Chefs. But we can talk about this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and the way that they've played.
Down the stretch.
The numbers haven't necessarily been great, but they go into this game against the Panthers offense that is struggling. And I'll propagandaize Antoine Winfield Junior as well because if he gets a second and a half.
He's leading the team in sacks at the safety spot. What's going on? Pro Bowl voters?
Clearly, maybe you need to watch more games.
He's all over the field.
I think he makes plays as well as I was like, yeah, Dyabi and Viteveya making huge plays against the Carolina Panthers.
Let's move over to the Saints.
Derek Carr showed up big time last week to keep the dream of the playoffs alive in New Orleans.
Far takes the snap middle of the pocket.
Frowze caught far side, touchdown.
Joan Johnson and that's what she want to do.
Take the Paul drive it right down there. Froats car throws it towards the angel looking for Taysom Hill.
Chasom Hill makes the catch on the near side and that is a touchdown Touchasam Hill.
I love that Taysom Hill touchdown call.
It can't get any bigger fan heat wise than Falcons Saints to determine a spot in the playoff, although some Saints fans probably not necessarily interested in this team winning.
But Greg, how do you see this going?
I think the Saints are gonna close strong, they win twenty seven to twenty three.
Who knows what happens in Atlanta.
If that happens, and if you've been tracking my results here, I had the Seahawks lose, right, I had the Packers lose. Oh, this would send the Saints to the playoffs as a wild card.
We got two.
NFC South teams in the playoffs. Get crazy, people. Derek Carr's playing better.
He's been playing his best football over the last month.
I would say three of his best four games as a Saint have been over the last month. There was that game against the Rams, which wasn't totally on him either. He's just been steady and going into the season Saints fantated. I said, is this an upgrade for Andy Daalton Derek Carr? Because Andy Dalton, if you look at all the numbers, like pff Adam as the seventh best quarterback in the
league last year. I don't think it was an upgrade for most of this season, but this last month he's been making much better decisions.
They're healthier.
The offensive line is playing well, which is important in this matchup because Atlanta doesn't have much of a passer.
I think the Saints get to the playoffs.
I like that.
I don't have that because of where I have the Green Bay Packers finishing, but I do have the Saints putting this one twenty two to twenty one. Interesting enough, I know that we're probably all in. The Saints is my guest. So I just wanted to talk about Bejon Robinson because he's had a better season than his numbers, or at least fantasy numbers might suggest. In this last matchup, in particular, they found an area of weakness, meaning especially using him not just in the run game, but also
in the pass catching game. In fact, that was only the second deep touchdown so twenty plus areer touchdown to a.
Running back this season.
The other was the Saquon Barkley, so that kind of shows you he does have the stuff. So whatever happens this year, okay, but next year moving forward, Bijon will be a force. He's excellent. Even if Texas didn't win and go to the National Game, say it, just say it.
It was a nice trip down memory lane to see the Falcons win that game over the Saints. In the Bijon highlights, Desmond Ritter was the starting quarterback then if he was this time, I might be interested in pikets because I think the Steelers, I mean, I think the ceiling is a little bit higher with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. I've got the Saints winning here as well. Twenty one to twenty because I know Derek Carr and the Saints love taking shots down the field, especially.
To now pro bowler Rashid Ssha.
Here here we go.
Thirt of sheets targets.
This year travel twenty or more air yards down the field. Nobody in football has a higher percentage. One might be all it takes in this one because the Saints defense has been playing better as well. We're all on the New Orleans Saints, and I too, I have a couple of teams from the South making the playoffs. Me and Greg on the same page there. The Ravens took care of business last week, clinched the number one seed in the AFC, and now they play host to the Steelers.
Lamar will be resting, so Tyler Huntley, twenty twenty two pro bowler gets the start. Pittsburgh needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Do they do it against some backups?
Grit?
I think the Steelers do get it done twenty seven to twenty.
Now.
In the past four years ago, the Ravens actually won in this spot with their backups against the Steelers. Very similar, and yet I think the Steelers team is different because their quarterback is better. Now, is Mason Rudoff better than like an old Ben Roethlisberger. He's definitely better than Kenny Peckett.
He's definitely better than Mitchell Trubisky. I know it's only a two week sample size, but they're the third best offense in the league according to EPA the last two weeks, and we're seeing the big plays and he's allowing the best part of their team wide receivers in their tight end Friarth to show who they are.
Especially George Pickens.
But I also think of some third downs plays like that where he's getting through his reads really quickly. There was a throw to Deontay Johnson early last week where he got to that third read. Deontay Johnson's always open, throw it to Deontay Johnson.
It seems smart enough.
I just have a one point win for Pittsburgh in this matchup twenty one to twenty.
I agree with you, the Ravens could easily win this one.
But I want to talk about someone who likely won't be in Baltimore next year.
You know who that is.
Mike McDonald's not the singer, their defensive coordinator because he's awesome. This team is ridiculous. His coordinating job absolutely knocked.
It out of the park.
The way that they build it through the spine of their defense, the safety play Geno Stone. Do you know any other teams didn't want Geno Stone?
Thirty one?
And you know what, this guy is just picking off opposing quarterbacks like it's his job, because it is actually his job. But Mike McDonald what he's been able to do since coming from the University of Michigan with this Ravens too. I hope that you know next week is coach change Week.
What do we call it that? I'll rebrand it right, Coach Change Week.
He better get his frequent fire miles.
Ready because you get in a lot.
He's gonna get a lot of interviews and it'll be interesting to see where he ends up next season.
Or you can get or you can give Ben Johnson. You know that's the.
Say away from Ben Johnson thought stay away from him.
That there I look Cynthia and Greg both. I think the Baltimore Ravens can win this game. A Pittsburgh Steeler fan tweeted a meme alert at me last week said, pick against the Steelers again. Sure, I'll do it, Tylertley as the Baltimore Ravens, all right, get a win, mainly because what Cynthia was just talking about with Mike McDonald and the defense, Yeah, the Dogs are barking. I will take the stray bond here. Especially focus. We talked about JD.
Clowney last week. Let's talk about Justin Mattabuqut and the season that he has had on the tier defensive line. He's got the fourth most pressures in the league from the idel position.
You go back earlier in.
His career, it's like, oh, well, you know, Matta Buguets is going to be in as a run stop, but he's not necessarily going to make plays in the passing game. He's done it consistently all season long.
Yeah, they ran all.
Over the Seahawks. This is not the Seahawks defense. They had the Seahawks in the conflict making the pass game a little bit better. That the Bengals lost track of George Pickens, which you cannot do. And so I think rebelieving in Baltimore here makes a little bit more sense than some folks might believe. Let's go to the Broncos and the Raiders. As we get into some quick picks, Jared Stidham against this former team of revenge game, does he get vengeance?
Cynthia h No.
Las Vegas wins this one twenty one to nineteen in the least vengeful revenge. But look, this is an interesting matchup because Davante Adams, who has had weird a weird season, let's just put it that way.
Yes, this guy's been open. He's really done a very good job.
Last week especially, he was very good and they almost won because of how well he's been playing. I also wanted to point out that guys like him are going to be the reason why either Antonio Pierce will get the job or not. Meaning those voices that you're hearing coming from that locker room, they're saying, hey, I'm co signing for this guy. A couple weeks ago, you heard maybe DeVonta Adams might be going to a green colored team that's not having a good offense.
As someone else pointed out, not.
Me, But look, I think that when you have a guy like Antonio Pierce and a guy like DeVonta Adams.
That's gonna be great.
Let's go to the Jets and the Patriots in Foxborough, New England. Currently holding the third pick in the upcoming draft. Who wins this AFC East battle of Titans.
I flipped my pick since our meeting. OK, I'm going with my heart here. I actually believe the Patriots win this game seventeen to sixty. And what could be Bill Belichick's final game as head coach is what is so funny here?
I have the opposite se satsquare all.
I mean, there's not gonna be a lot of offense over under here is thirty and a half.
But I wanted to just show this man, Bill Belichick.
I got to pick him for all the joy he's given to me in my life as a head coach of the Patriots for the last twenty three years. And can't you just imagine Foxborough Stadium, Jillette Stadium, everyone cheering at the end of an ugly slugfest and Bill wave into the crowd after doing the thing he does best and loves most in the world, And that's beat the New York Jets and make Woody Johnson regret the day he ever bought that team, and then Bill.
Retired as HC And why ja he gets it done?
Yes?
Did you just sign it?
Yeah? Bill Belichick signed Greg Rosenthal.
Chiefs Chargers Kansas City locked into the three seed in AFC, they're resting Patrick Mahomes. Blaine Gabert gets the start, Flanda Gobert gets the win.
Yeah, I guess this one flipped for me on the news that Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa were not playing. But I do want to talk about how in this game Keenan Allen would have been the difference maker. So he's had a great season, so has Austin Eckler. These are guys who, when you're looking at the opportunity for the future, they're gonna build around the number thirteen. He's great. So we'll just onward and upward, potentially getting not Ben Johnson but Mike McDonald.
I like that we refuse to pick the Chargers here, even as three and a half point face.
I had them.
I had them until Joey Bosa and Keenan Allen were no longer playing.
I made the Charger's mistake last week. I'm not doing the Browns and the Bengals. Cleveland locked into the five seats, so they're gonna rest Joe Flacco. Jeff Driscoll gets the start at quarterback, and I think Jeff Driscoll gets the win in this because I saw the pass game down late against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I saw I saw Jake Browning get sacked four times in the last possession alone. He got sacked six times in the game.
In fact, that's the second time this season that Jake Browning has taken a sack on more than fifteen percent of his dropbacks in a game. Jim Schwartz gets to just sit back there.
And fire away in a YOLO game.
And I like the Cleveland Browns winners here over Cincinnati looking forward. But I'm been looking forward to write this down all day long.
Let's get some predictions for Week eighteen.
Greg Europe First, I'm so excited last week.
I told you the Bills were going to win the division before Week seventeen.
That's still gonna happen.
By the way, now, I'm gonna give you some free awards advice. Will Anderson Junior Cynthia mentioned him earlier. I think gets the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. There's some reasoning here. They're playing in primetime Saturday night. Not a lot of people have watched the Texans. People like to vote for winners. I think they win that game. I think Anderson gets a couple sacks. Gardner Minshew fumbles the ball and Will Anderson ends up passing Jalen Carter,
who's been slowing down later in the season. I also think Josh Allen of the Jaguars has a much better.
Chance to win Defensive Player of the Year than then.
The odds would say he's plus ten thousand right now, that's ridiculous.
He has sixteen and a half sacks.
If he gets like a three and a half sack game, let's say gets the twenty. We're dumb as voters. We like big round numbers, and he's going up against the Titans offensive line. They can win their division. I think he's got a shot to do it. The other Josh Allen, oh.
I love it.
I'm looking at Dalton Schultz and I think he hauls in at least five passes or at least more than four and a half passes.
I'm looking at this opportunity.
They need this game, and anyone who needs it feels better when it comes to what the model will forecast. Both teams need it, so I trust my projections for both teams even more. And you also want to look for people who need certain things. So if you need another one Garrett Wilson, he needs like a few more yards first, So look for incentives. Baby like Travis Kelce sixteen more to get a thousand yard stuff, look for incentives.
It's it's like free stuff.
Baker Mayfield gets some million dollars if they win this game, so you're gonna try to make it.
Yeah, we would all enjoy freeze stuff.
Justin Fields I think passes for more than two hundred yards against the Green Bay Packers. It was one hundred and eighty nine yards in the first matchup between these two teams. A lot of stuff has happened since then. I think the Bears passing offense has gotten better. I think the Packers passing defense has gotten worse. So I think you should write down this particular fact, which is on your screen.
Two hundred yards.
Over for Justin Field one through the air on Sunday, and again we're looking forward to We're looking forward to all the games, Thanks for watching. Not a game debut presented by Mercedes Bins. We're going to try to get Greg locked in to whether or not we change for the postseason, but.
Currently you're trying to take me down. It is what you're trying to do. It's not gonna happen.
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