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Hey everybody Well on the Game Debut Present about Mercedes Benz, Patrick Claibon Here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland. As we have made it to week sixteen, the playoff pushes on. Everybody's doing the math, and the math is becoming more and more simple every week.
Right it is, and the math is telling me that Cynthia as usual is playing well down the stretch.
The picks are hot. It got us. Cynthia Freeland didn't know where he was going with that.
Well, this is where it's going. Greg Rosenthal, still wearing the crown, but right there, one game behind it. Perhaps a cowardly change of a pick a few weeks ago away from being tied at the top.
Where what do you think?
I didn't want to be all aboard the bears in Santa Clara.
Nobody remember, pretty happy with us for all being over.
It's like, if you think about ten wins for a week, we're all over that, we're doing it.
You're doing great.
I'm not at all right behind. Kansas City has themselves a huge scare last week. Patrick Mahomes limping off the field, Carson Wentz had to come in. He's dealing with the high ankle sprain as Mahomes, but he's been practicing all week. Thursday, Andy Reid said his star quarterback will most likely end up playing this week against the Texans. So let's discuss that game. The Chiefs playing host to Houston on Saturday, and what could be a potential playoff preview Hollywood Brown
might be bad for case. What do you see happening here, Greg, I see.
Defenses dominating on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs winning an ugly game, because that's what the Chiefs do, especially when Patrick Mahomes is coming off an injury.
That's right. I can just think about two years ago.
When he had that high ankle sprain and you thought it was going to ruin their entire playoff run. And you know what he did against the Jaguars. He cooked him in the end. I mean it was slow and then it was fast, and that's how the Chiefs beat you. And this guy, injuries just don't seem to matter. And I know he's not playing very well and he's going up against a really good defense, and that's why. I
don't think they're going to really score that much. But when it comes to the fourth quarter and making the drive that you need to salt the game way, I think they get it done. Seventeen to thirteen, Chiefs win and they cover the number.
Ooh, well, I don't have them covering the number. I have them with a two point win in this matchup twenty three to twenty one. When I'm looking at you know who else is facing a strong defense in this one, yeah, CJ.
Stroud.
And then when I look at what's the difference between this year and last year, it's really how he's performed against zone defense. Last year that was a huge source of success fifteen touchdowns to just two interceptions. This year, with around the same number of passing yards per game, he's averaging oh you know, nine touchdowns with eight interceptions. That's a huge difference and a huge source of a problem. Well, what's going on. The defenses are disguising man versus zone check.
The Steve Spagnolo Chiefs can do that really well. They're getting pressure along the interier of that on line check.
We know that they can do that as.
Well, and then they're getting a lot of penalties on that offense.
So CJ.
Stroud's going to find himself in a very difficult situation yet again in this one.
I've got a low scoring game as well with you guys, but it's probably splitting the difference. I've got an eighteen seventeen game, but I have the Houston Texans winning. These are two teams that are very similar offensively. In fact, it's just one tenth of a point that separates them
in points per game. But the fact is the Kansas City Chiefs have had trouble protecting Patrick Mahomes and the Houston Texans have the best edge duo in the entire league, the only pair of teammates in the NFL with ten or more secks. Daniel Hunter has twelve sex and Will Anderson has missed a couple of games. He has ten and a half. A top ten passing defense in every category per net NFL Stats, short passing, long passing, play
action passing. The only one the Chiefs have an advantage down the list is quick passing, and we saw what the Texans were able to do against two on the Miami Dolphins. So yeah, I'll go solo here and be absolutely fine with it. Eighteen seventeen Texans win, which is certainly doomed. Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs as we
go to our next Saturday game. A similar to Greg and Cynthia's rivalry in our picks competition, the Steelers and the Ravens have an equally vicious rivalry, which apparently makes me the Cleveland Browns. The teams were set to score off Saturday Big Stakes between the Steelers and Ravens rematch. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a win. George Pickens is out, but TJ. Watt is expected to play, so that exchange. Does that work out for Pittsburgh?
It does not work out. You need George Pickens out there. I don't think they score enough. Twenty six to thirteen. I have the Ravens winning. I don't think it's close because I think this is the best overall group of weapons. Lamar Jackson has ever had in the tight end position is such a big part of that. People say, okay, like Lamar doesn't have enough guys to throw to. How about the all time leading touchdown scorer as a pass catcher in Mark Andrews, who, after a quiet start, is back.
To being Mark Andrews.
Then you compliment him with Isaiah Likely, who is just a dynamic playmaker in the matchups that you can get in the running game and in the receiving game. Against these Steelers linebackers, I think are really advantageous after the buye. They used both tight ends on forty four percent of their snaps against the Giants last week. Look for them to do more of that. Get heavy and beat up the Steelers.
Ooh, well, I love watching Lamar Jackson spin it. It's so much fun. But I want to talk about something that is driving my win for Baltimore twenty seven to twenty. But on the other side of the ball, that is Russell Wilson, who we saw those deep plays. You saw George Pickens all over that game in Week eleven. But this time we've seen a little bit of causes for concern in terms of the comfort level of Russell Wilson, who's now throwing the ball on twenty seven percent of his dropbacks.
That's the highest in the league.
And interesting now we've seen two games in a row where he has sub two hundred passing yards. Those two games line up with George Pickens being out.
My whole point here is.
Now we're starting to see panic mode, a little bit of like, what's going on?
Where's my dude?
What happens when this deep pass doesn't work? This is a situation that doesn't bode well for Russell Wilson in this matchup. At this point in the season.
I've got a Baltimore Ravens win as well, especially considering Russ. The biggest difficulty that Greg mentioned is the fact that there's no George Pickens there, so the explosive play isn't The explosive play is always there for the Baltimore Ravens, far and away leading the NFL in that category. Year two with Todd Malkin has been great, and a big part of that has been Rashad Bateman.
That's how I feel, too.
Yes, that's what it was, because the passes were looking great against the Giants and this is not the Giants Stephens coming up by any stretch, regardless of TJ wats health status. But the problem Rashap Baateman was on the injury report late this week with a foot. But the Ravens are so versatile they could just get more too tight end not gonna be Deontay Johnson because he's out
this week as well. But just confidence in playing the Steelers for the second time and this one being at home and the margin simply being a two point conversion the last time around. I feel comfortable. We're all there, Meme away Steelers fans. Speaking of the Steelers and Ravens, you can also catch both games that we just talked about on Christmas Day, except the teams were playing in
the other teams. It's like a little end season tournament, a huge playoff in implications, live on Netflix on Christmas Day, starting at one pm Eastern in the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers, followed up by the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans at four thirty pm Eastern. Speaking of holiday cheer, let's head right to the city of brotherly Love. Turns out winning and scoring makes everybody happy.
A J.
Brown and Jalen Hurts is just fine. After last week. The Eagles now face off against Jayden Daniels and the Commander's Sunday. Philly has won ten straight. Do they win eleven straight this time next week?
Cynthia, They sure do. I have twenty five to twenty one. My biggest question was was that the dance from Kidden Place?
Yes? Sure?
What?
Okay, just making sure because they kind of didn't finish it.
Anyways, We're going to talk about that some other time. But I want to talk about Nolan Smith because in all of this mess, he hasn't gotten his flowers. This man is doing terrible things. Two posing quarterbacks. Great if you're a Philadelphia Eagles fan, But if you're Jayden Daniels, he's coming for you. This man's pressure rate is coming right at you. And maybe we don't talk about him enough. We talk about Jalen Carter. Okay, we talk about controversies on the offense, if they like each.
Other or not.
But you know what, let's talk about this defense between him and Zach Bond. There are some guys who just don't get enough love. We are giving them love right here.
On this show.
Yeah, there's something about the Eagles that year after year you just look up front on both sides of the ball and they're just dominant. And the one constant on the offense is Lane Johnson. I think the Eagles win this game. I think they do it going away because their run game will just lean on Washington like they did the first time around twenty seven to fifteen is my score. Lane Johnson last week got banged up and you're worried he's going up against TJ.
Watt.
You know how many pressures Lane Johnson gave up last week?
Zero.
This is an all time great who's still at the absolute peak of his powers. First ballot Hall of Famer in the mix, I would say as maybe the greatest right tackle of all time, maybe the greatest offensive lineman of the last twenty years. Like he's right there with Joe Thomas. Maybe doesn't get that sort of love, but he has that sort of career going right.
Yeah, the Eagles were able to do things in a big stretch without Also they've missed Lane Johnson for parts of this season. That was concerning. They were able to overcome Landon Dickerson missing parts of last week. No concerns. They're concerns about other spots. Go coaches beefing, players beefing. No concerns there. Nobody's concerned about Advante Smith easier either, a guy who's playing in the slot now more than he has in his entire career. In fact, it's almost
double the amount of snaps from the slot. Speaking of career highs. He had a career high and eleven catches last week, So yeah, they wanted to work on the passing game. Turns out we've seen Jalen Hursts, Dvante Smith, AJ Brown be successful.
It's not like.
Those guys are gone. They could just turn it up when they need to, and they did last week against Pittsburgh. We all agree they win this game in the division against the Commanders. Just getting started here on game Dave, you don't look now, well, I guess you can, because the bump's coming up. Sam Donald's got the Vikings cooking. Minnesota is caught up to the Lions in the NFC North, but they've got their eyes set at the number one
overall seed in the conference. How far and they go this week in Seattle's Big We'll tell you how we think it will go. Next time for the Drive to Excellence presented by Mercedes Bins. As we look at the NFC playoff picture, you hear Cynthia's ci despite the fact that the Lions still in position to have the number one overall seat in the NFC, but there's a couple
of other teams at twelve and two. And then as we get Yeah, let's get to the Drive to Excellence presented by Mercedes Benz because it's a big matchup between the Vikings and the Seahawks. After an injury scare last week, Gino Smith is expected to play, and he's a big reason why I have Seattle winning twenty four to twenty two because we have not won but two former Jets quarterbacks now with franchises that actually support and enable them.
They're both good, but Gino's better right now. In one spot. Since the buye back in Week eleven, for the Seattle Seahawks with a minimum of ten dropbacks, Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage over expected against five or more pass rushers. Why is that important? Because they're playing the Minnesota Vikings, something they are certainly willing to do with Brian Flores calling up the plays, it feels like a lot. But the Seahawks sneakily kind of need this one. Greg.
That's why I feel confident in them at home with Gino playing well.
Against Okay, they need it. I don't know that I'm confident. I think they cover that number. And if I'm gonna have them cover the number, let's just go all the way. And have Seattle win this game against Minnesota in part because their defense I think bounces back. The Packers gave them a lot early last week, but I believe Ernest Jones and this Seattle defense can figure things out and
against the Vikings. I think having a strong second level not only could help stop the run against Aaron Jones, and Seattle's been much better stopping on except for that first half against the Packers, but they've been much better since picking up Ernest Jones, but also in the passing game, they've been better at the second level, and I think they can force Seam Darnold into miss I don't know
if I feel that confident, but I'm hoping. As I send it over to the more Christmasy part of the set, Cynthia Freeland, I noticed that like when when Cynthia is on her one shot, it's just way more festive than when Patrick can there.
I can look at me. She's like a little elm.
You know, this is our last show, but for Christmas, had to spice.
It up a little bit, all right.
I actually have the Minnesota Vikings in this matchup twenty three to twenty one.
The messy middle, if you will.
So I guess I'm kind of on the side of it, but it is a prime number in terms of straight up picks.
D Lady, when I'm looking at the reason why what you loving my deed lyad?
Yes, you're giving me the Minnesota Vikings tour favored with Justin Jefferson. Okay, fine by me, I'll take it. The reality is is it's not just Jefferson, but it's the addition of Addison. See what I did there, Hokinson and Jefferson that all together create just such a problem. Now layer in Aaron Jones and I don't care if a linebacker levels great or I don't care if individual cornerbacks
are great. The model says Justin Jefferson, and this run and pass attack just has an advantage over the Seahawks.
I'm not gonna say I liked it. And two weeks ago I.
Looked back, the model had the opposite but potential injuries to Gino Smith. Now, even if he's playing like great, but is it one hundred percent? We can't factor that in. If it's eighty percent Gino Minnesota wins.
Yeah. The explanation for that would be how Sam Howell looked in the last game perhaps that's why you would run eighty percent Gino out there the Vikings looking up at the Lions still Cynthia in the standings. Detroit came up short against the Bills last week, but it certainly was not because of their offense. But the Lions came up just short last week. They got a ton of injuries, but are looking to bounce back against the Bears. How big will the bounce back be?
Some I have a touchdown bounce back twenty seven to twenty in this matchup. You saw the weird creative play to Dan Skipper. Luckily he didn't throw up after, although that was pretty funny in the week prep. But anyways, I also think Jamison Williams and Tim Patrick, these are the type of guys who are going to be used in ways we maybe haven't seen before, especially Jamison Williams, who we know has some wheels on him. You're watching plays where he's catching the football now, but don't be
surprised if he lines up in the backfield. Don't be surprised if we see him do something that you know, maybe I don't know, something that looks like something and looks like something else, right, So trick oration some things where I'm trying to kind of politely request that they use him in you know, flea fleers, just stuff that tricks the defense. This is a defense you can run on, especially running to the outside. Just do that, Jamison Williams
take the easier thing. Jamis Williams is super fast. You can run on the bear sea outside.
There you go.
Okay, So earlier there was a sigh way.
Yeah, the sigh is because now the Eagles in my model are forecast to be the one seed, which means they don't get a bye the Lions, which means that the Eagles are playing at home for the last time until the potential Super Bowl.
Well, we'll see.
First of all, I just would like to take you back to a different version of Cynthia years ago and hear that you're sighing because your Lions are only twelve and two and tied for the buy.
Let's have some confidence, like the Lions. Let's crush the Bears.
They're gonna win forty one to thirteen. I'm gonna go back and tell that Cynthia. Yes, you're gonna have a lot of injuries when you take this situation, though you have the best offense in the entire NFL. You have an MVP candidate and a recognized top five quarterback in Jared Goff, who is maybe weirdly underrated.
Now because he's the same guy each and every week.
You have a great coordinator dialing up plays, who's finding receivers open, and you have a quarterback who's just on time, on rhythm, been in that offense so long that he gets the guys to the receiver in stride. I know the defense is all injured, and that's gonna come up in the next few weeks against better competition. The Bears are not that team. They're gonna want to feel better this week. They're gonna put a forty burger on him,
and they're gonna cover this by so much. It's not my last time talking about it in this show.
I feel like I should have I should have gone between you guys. I have almost the same score Cynthia does. That's fine, twenty eight to twenty, So Greg, I want to take the thunder away from Greg's speech. We would that the thunder aspect of the Detroit Lions was still around. Hopefully David Montgomery is able to make a quick recovery whatever route that he chooses. But what a luxury it is to have Jamiir Gibbs there, who far and away leads all running backs in explosive run rate at seventeen
point eight percent. He's just ahead of Derrick Henry in terms of explosive runs on the season on like seventy fewer carries. He can take the top off of the defense in the run game. I know Cynthia wants Jamo to get back there as well, to attack these bears on the edge, and they can do it. They can beat you in so many different places. We're all on the Detroit Lions, and yes, past version of Cynthia, they're still really good. We'll tell the present version as well.
Huge second half for Devonte Adams last week, ton of sees the season present about Caesars Sportsbook. As we look at the first touchdown score odds between the Rams going all the way across the United States take on the Jets at Mettlife, Kayle Willis, Puka Takua leading the way and then Breese Hall the first Jett plus six hundred this game in MetLife, where la is sitting in first place in the NFC West right now, But Rogers and the Jets have been playing better. Who wins great.
I think the Rams win, but they've been a little enigmatic. I would say when they've gone east, it's been close. So I have the Jets covering because Aaron Rodgers in this offense is finally looking like you hoped it would look back in September. Aaron Rodgers was their leading rusher last week over forty five yards. He really has been
moving better. Some of it is matchup based. I don't think this is one of the better offenses in the league, but I think now with DeVante and Garrett Wilson a little more in sync with their quarterback and Aaron Rodgers just a little bit more willing to hold onto the ball, I think they can score against average defenses, and that's what I would consider the Rams right now.
They're not great in the second theory.
Their pass rush, especially Jared Versus, fallen off just a bit lately. So I think the Rams are really gonna sweat this one out. It's gonna be close, but they do get the win.
I have the exact same winner and the exact same score, so we are aligned on that one. But I want to talk about Matthew Stafford and I actually created a metric just for Stafford. This was back when he was a lion and getting flattened on Angrey down. But do you know who the best quarterback on the play after being pressured is?
Who's up?
Matthew Stafford And it's not even close.
And he's even gotten.
Better at that metric since becoming a Ram. So this guy, every time he's pressured, he either converts the down or gets a touchdown forty five percent of the time.
The next closest guy is forty one percent.
So if you want another reason why Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Famer for sure, easy pas, just no question there it is. Yeah, pressure him and see what happens.
I don't think he's gonna get a ton.
Of pressure, Fonds. Yeah, it doesn't matter.
It's how you deal with pressure, and after pressure comes, Matthew Stafford much better than next time around. I will take one more point in both greg and sent the alge of the Rams twenty five points in a twenty five to twenty four win over the Jets. Yes we are a meme. I'm going to talk about Pooka nakula. There's so many aspects of poka Nakua game where we could celebrate. But here's a fun stat for you. The Rams average almost a yard more per carry when Puka
and Kua is on the field. He does so many different things. Defenses are so worried about him. He's been in motion more since he came back from injury, and yeah, four point five yards per carry. When Pooka is on the field, he just makes everything better. He makes Matthew Stafford better. And as the Rams are making this push for the postseason, I do not think that they will
fail in MetLife. Speaking of the Rams, they'll be a part of NFL Networks Saturday tripleheader coming up on the twenty eighth, starting off with the Chargers taking on the Patriots in New England, and then a big AFC matchup with the Broncos and Bengals, and why not finishing it up with an NFC West battle between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at Matthew Stafford and those Rams. It all starts with game day kickoff at ten am Eastern Saturday on NFL Network Tom Ross to make some quick picks.
We start with those Arizona Cardinals taking on the Carolina Panthers. Carol wronged all of us last week because we all picked up for the first time and they lost, disappointing us. Arizona still has a shot at making the playoffs. Who wins this one?
I like the Cardinals, who in part to set up that Cardinals Rams game Big one next Saturday night.
I think it's close to the Cardinals.
The Panthers cover the number, but James Connor and the Cardinals rushing attack is too much. Every team going up against this Cowboys rush defense goes off. You saw it with Rico Dada last week, and then you look at the way James Connor ran coming out of their by He was fantastic big plays. I love that the Cardinals are hooking up the guys who deserve it with long
term contract extensions during the season. James Connor got one late November Buddha Baker, as Cynthia pointed out here, their safety got one recently.
The Cardinals doing things the right way. You know, organizations they can change.
Yeah, pay your good players. It works out for everybody, especially the fans who like watching good players. The Saints and the Packers Monday Night in Grey Bay. The packs only losses have come to twelve and twelve win teams. So how's this one gonna goes in?
There?
Are the Saints a twelve win team? They or not, then they're going to lose. Green Bay wins twenty eight to thirteen. I have a fifteen point win. This is the second most confident pick of the entire week for me. Why you see Josh Jacobs, you know what he does.
He rushes.
He rushes exactly to the place where the Saints are most vulnerable, and that's on the inside.
They're gonna see him in the.
End zone probably twice, I would guess in this matchup. I think this is a huge outing for him, especially because there's so many pieces on the Saints offense that are just banged up. Their injury report is very long as well, so I think Josh Jacob's massive day.
All Right, the Patriots and the Bills in Orchard Park, don't think we need to discuss this with too much. We're all taking Buffalo to win. Josh Allen playing out of this world. Seriously, Why don't way to take a look at his numbers lately? These all coming in the last three games. He's thrown for seven touchdowns, ran for six, he caught a touchdown. He might have helped a few people on the road on the way to the game.
I mean, it's.
Everything, Josh Allen. So why don't we go to a special more or less Josh Allen edition? I mean going up against Greg's Patriots. That he had four total touchdowns last week against the lines, more or less than two and a half touchdowns against your pets.
Wow, this is easy. You remember that playoff game where Bill Belichick's defense didn't get a single stop against Josh Allen. This is a much worse defense, Josh Allen, I would go four touchdowns. I do find your lack of respect for the game that we don't need to talk about this a little disrespectful to Drake May. You know who has a higher success rate than Josh Allen since Week ten throwing the football?
Drake May.
So yes, I took this Josh Allen prop. And I talked about Drake May because he's a great young quarterback, but Josh Allen's better.
More touchdowns, all right, Well.
We're just talking specifically about props in this game, so we are talking about this game. He threw for over three hundred and fifty yards last week, more or less than two hundred and thirty seven this week.
So here, oh that number is far too low. Why because they got to figure some things out in the passing game. And this is actually not a team you want a deep pass against. Allowed two or two deep passing touchdowns this whole season, that's not very many. But they really use the underneath stuff quite a bit.
In fact, Khalil Shakir.
Of course, we know this guy has a ton of those ten air yard receptions five hundred and ninety.
Yards worth to be exact.
This is gonna be a fun one to watch for Kean Coleman, for Marie Cooper, like, let's get all the guys involved and see what happens.
You know, one thing I like about this Bill's offense is they are not a team that's just gonna sit on their lead. If they get up thirty to ten, they're not gonna get more conservative.
They're gonna keep putting up points.
And they'll have already known if the Chiefs want or not, right, but it's still they're still chasing the Chiefs. They want the one seed, baby, and.
So ultimately that's a big factor. As I look at Josh Allen running for over thirty seven and a half yards, and I think that's a big factor because I think they may depending on knowing the results of the game between the Texans and the Chiefs, and also the fact that I'm not gonna smash my generational quarterback into defenders at this point against this Patriots team late in the season. It's like, I know that Josh sometimes we'll go off
and do his own thing. But if there's a week for Sean mcdermom to be like, hey, seventeen, maybe chill a little bit on the Superman heroics, it's probably this.
One, you know what.
I'd look at the Drake May number and put that one over though, get a little more Drake May love in there, because the rushing yard total, that could be a good one for me. You might run against this defense just saying, yeah.
Who's Drake May's nickname? Per Greg the only thing that matters Drake May? The Bucks and the Cowboys Sunday night in Dallas. Tampa's won for straight but Dallas kind of frisky right now. Defense playing better since MICA's back. How well do they play against Baker and the Bucks.
I think they don't win this twenty six to twenty one in favor of the Bucks.
Is my score.
I want to talk about the Bucks defense for a second, because we've kind of been giving them a hard time all season long, but they have had an uptick in pressure and that's gonna be a problem for Cooper Rush, especially because as we're looking at the opportunity for his.
O line to stop the pressure, it is diminished.
So I'm watching these guys and I'm watching where the rushes are coming from. It's kind of the middle, it's kind of it's kind of all over, so low key. This has been something that we haven't been on enough on this show, so just wanted to get a little love to all the guys rushing the passer for the Bucks.
And they've been really improving on that side of the ball, trying to catch up to the offense, which has really been outstanding all year. This offense has gotten Sterling Shepherd into a big time role in the year twenty twenty four. I always thought Sterling Shepard was an underrated route runner and could have had a really nice career, but injuries
took him out almost out of the entire league. And you know how to recognize great offenses, they take players that didn't work at all in other places and they make them into productive role players. I have the Bucks covering this number twenty seven to nineteen in part because when Baker Mayfield needs a play, he actually has a lot of different options. Kate Atten's made big plays, Sterling Shepherd has shown up in the biggest moments a lot in contested catch situations.
Jalen McMillan, their rookie has been showing up.
And so this is one of my favorite picks of the week, the Bucks covering this number. That's why it was one of my picks on the NFL Daily Podcast with Cynthia every week.
I've got the Bucks covering as well. Greg. And one of those options that Baker Mayfield has to throw the ball to is Rashad White, who in this Bucks backfield we felt like was the guy for the pass game out of the backfield and Bucky Irving was a guy for the run game. But look at the past few weeks for Rashad White. He had almost seven yards of carry against the Panthers and then five point three yards per carry against the Raiders in a solid performance in
the win at Sofi Stadium. In the rush and pass game, the Bucks offense still pretty good. It's a tough spot for this kind of resurgent Cowboys team, but we all have Tampa Bay winning as well as getting over that number of four points against the Cowboys. Folks in the Desert expecting major points on Monday night. Let's check out the highest over unders for the week. As we look there, forty eight and a half the big point total in
the game. We just discussed the Lions and Bears, Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers, and then the Rams and the Jets rounding out the list. So let's move on to the forty nine Ers and the Dolphins. Miami needs to win if they want to keep their already slim playoff hopes a lot. San Francisco needs like a calculator full of things that happen to make it to the postseason. Which one of those things, at least in terms of the teams playing the game, do you think happens?
I think Miami wins and by more than one. I have twenty five, twenty three.
Oh very nice.
I want to show something about brock Party that has been different this season. Brock Perty was known for being a great play action passer, and guess what he's still really good at it, but he just doesn't do it very often. You're doing it like sub fifteen percent of the time. That's the lowest in his very long three season career. However, it is a big deal.
In this one.
Perhaps Kyle Shanahan will dial up a little bit more of this because the Dolphins defense has been vulnerable to it.
Top three in the league when they do it, But.
The problem is is they haven't reliably done it or shown that they're going to.
Use play actions. So as good as he is on it, I don't know why not go to it.
I agree something. I think the Dolphins win this game as well, but I do think they only went by one point. My pick is eighteen to seventeen. And it was Derek Stingley putting on a performance, especially against Tyreek Hill late in that loss to Houston, that kind of sealed the deal for the Texans. But look at what the USA has just been like for Tyreek Hill in
the past few weeks. He had fourteen targets against the Jets in the overtime win, non targets against the Bengals, excuse me, against the Green Bay Packers, and then seven he only caught two of them, but they want to use Tyreek Hill, and the usage looks a whole lot better than it did earlier in the season. And Tyreek the most explosive player potentially in the league for a long time, and he gets a chance to go out
there and show it against this forty nine ers team. Greg, Who's yeah, they need a lot of help.
Yeah, I can't comfortably pick either of these teams. They've been disappointing. They're really vibing at six and eight, and yet I'm happy to take it just Greg on the forty nine ers because the one thing I can trust right now as the safety position of the San Francisco forty nine ers. That's right, Malik Mustafa and Talineo of Hufunga. They're bringing it back to the nineteen eighties or maybe the late nineties.
It's a couple of.
John Lynches who are just coming downhills and they're gonna knock you out.
This Dolphins team doesn't have.
Any run game, and I think this secondary they're not only hitting, they're playing quite good coverage and I think they can look at the game plan that Houston put out there last week. There's a lot of inverted cover two. Tua had no response for it. They have not been able to go down the field at all. I'm just wondering if teams have figured out the Dolphins offense just a little bit.
Forty nine ers get to win.
I love that you said. I can't comfortably take either one of these. I'm just gonna give a six point win out the forty nine er.
I mean, that's what you learn back in like high school debate club. If you just pick a side, then just go hard at it, no matter what you think.
There we go a little high school debate lesson for one. Greg Rosendal's we discussed the forty nine ers and the Dolphins still to come on our show. There's a new kid on the block down and at last, Cousins benched. Michael Penickx Junior was shopping at Costco when he found out that he was going to be the starting quarterback for the Falcons.
A lot of NFL stuff happens at Costco.
In DJ's defense, it was right now, and it took a long time for right now for Ray Morris and the Falcons to make the decision. Kirk Cousins has been benched. Now they got the Giants coming up, Michael Pennick Junior will start. The Falcons still have a path to the playoff. Does the rookie get a win in his first career start, Cynthia.
I mean yes, I have him with a win.
I have twenty six to seventeen in this matchup, so a big win. What are going to be the differences you see with Michael Pennix on the field, Well, Number one, more mobility, because Kirk Cousins really wasn't very mobile. Number two, you probably won't see him take many.
Snaps under center.
Why because most of the quarterbacks coming out of college, they're inexperienced doing so. And his coach this week said he needs to take some reps with the one, which leads me to believe he hasn't been working out with them all season long. And number two, he's a lefty. That's going to cause some chemistry changes. And maybe they actually use play action more. Come on, we want play action passes from this team. We thought we'd see it
from Kirk Cousins. Maybe we see it now we know there's a good running back there.
Give me some play action.
Yeah, players would be nice. I think it would be nice simply for Beijon Robinson to not have to carry the load that he has had to carry for the Atlanta Falcons during the mid to late part of this season. You go back, he didn't have a game where he had more than twenty touches and excuse me, than thirty touches. And then we get to this matchup against the Chargers where he carries them all twenty six times for one hundred and two yards. He catches all six of his targets.
He's had to do so and so very much. In the last time out it was twenty two carries for one hundred and twenty five yards five point seven yards per attempt. And this is with the passing game being absolutely nil in terms of what they can offer. I just want to see Bejon with an opportunity to be successful in so many of these other Falcons as well. I think they have a win and I think it's twenty two to twelve, and I think it could be even better than that.
Wow, Okay, I could see a blowout because Pennix will be an upgrade over Kirk Cousins, who didn't play as well as former Falcon great Desmond Ridder last week. But I actually have the Giants covering this number. The Giants not getting a lot of respect when you're eight and a half point dogs against a rookie quarterback and against a struggling Falcons team. But you know who else isn't getting respect? The Falcons defense. I see you last three weeks since the bye they've.
Been better Raheem Morris.
I don't know what he did during that bye week, but they started getting some sacks. They got pressure on Justin Herbert, they got a lot of pressure on Sam Darnold. And I know that game went sideways in the fourth quarter, but I blame their offense for turning the ball over and just keep giving the ball back.
And then once again, the defense got the job done.
Against the Raiders, this is a similar matchup where they just need their defense to take control. They're playing better enough to win this game, but not to cover eight in a half.
That that's too rich for.
My blof Well, either way, they'll be able to potentially win this game, as we have all picked, and then sit back and put all some cowboys and cheer for Dallas in that game against the Buccaneers. Let's get some more quick picks here. On game debut, the Browns and the Bengals. Jamis benched earlier this week for dtr who will start for Cleveland, but ultimately doesn't matter.
Cynthia No, I mean, here's my pulse up that Cincinnati's still alive, barely twenty nine to twenty. I think they win this one. I just want to talk about Joe Burrow. This week, there was like a bunch of you know things being like what happened with your coach?
And when you're looking at Joe Burrow, he just wants to win. Man.
He's had so many games in a row where he's had multiple passing touchdowns.
He's doing everything.
This team is currently setting franchise records for a number of points per game and yards per game, and he needs to keep that going. And Joe Burrows not the problem, ladies and gentlemen. It is not Joe Burrow. So I just want to say, like, if he's passionate on the sideline, great, not what's wrong.
It's great. The man hates losing, fine by me.
Yeah. The vibes are immaculate for the offense, specifically because he got the entire offensive line like historical katan us, with each a connection to special places in Japan is what Joe Burrow's a man of culture. Would go to the Titans who lost to Joe Burrow in company we can go and the Colts, who they've got another bench quarterback in this one, Will Levis for Mason. Rudolph indeed needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I think they get it with a score of twenty
four to thirteen. As well as Greg and Cynthia feel like the Colts get a win here as well. I think that Jonathan Taylor bounces back from his goalline mistake. Anthony Richardson played so well at the start of that game. Maybe a consistent performance by the Colts after kind of losing their season late against the Denver Broncos last week.
We're all picking against Rudolph on Christmas.
Though it's a tough one.
Dad jokes jokes.
We've got multiple reindeer on their Mason, So it's not just you Jags in the Raiders in Vegas. What happens to this battle?
Greg, Okay, I've been seeing a lot of disrespect mister Claybun this week because he knew this pick. Raiders. I believe in you. You're gonna win this game. Thirteen to eleven. You're gonna waste your chance at the number one overall pick. And you're gonna do it because I see a team that's still playing hard. I don't know if that's true about the Jaguars. I also see a team with the offensive rookie of.
The year here at brock Bowers. What an incredible young player this kid is.
And you can say, oh, does Desmond Ridder like he's their starting quarterback, like he's any worse than Mac Jones. No way, brock Bowers is gonna make Desmond Ridder look like Kenny Stabler, and they're gonna go out there and they're gonna get a win for Antoni Appierce, because I know a team when I see it that's playing hard.
And they're playing hard, Cynthia.
But Max Crosby's not playing Do.
You know that that's true? I mean, what if the Jaguar has done that? Make you guys so confident in the Jackars.
I just love the passionate speech.
I know about the fire.
Of the Raiders. They're gonna get thirteen.
They're playing hard, They're gonna get another win here, Jack wars so.
Hard, thirteen whole points.
It's a Grinding thirteen. When we come back, we're giving you some of the favorite prop bets that we have for week six and grab a pin in a pad. Simthay has been on fire three weeks in a row. She cannot be stopped. Really no, because this pick is gonna be correct as well. I'll say that. Find out what it is when we come back on game debut
Sunday at nine am Eastern. Rich Eyes and Kurt Warner, Steve Mariucci and Siddy and Freeland and the rest of the crew get you set for kickoff with NFL Game Day Morning, Kyle Brandt sits down with Wahington Commander's quarterback jayde Daniels plus the guys. We'll discuss if the injuries will derail a Lions run to the Super Bowl, all that and more Sunday at nine a m. Eastern. But it's time for us to get you to write some things down as we make some predictions for Week sixteen.
Start us off, Greg, I am gonna start by returning to the Lions. I couldn't believe that the team total and that's if you pick one team and just their score. The Lions are at twenty seven and a half against this Bears defense, the way they're playing against good defenses, they score over twenty seven a half, so I love that. I'm going to combine that with Demir Gibbs over ninety
and a half rushing yards. Patrick mentioned the explosive place he might get over ninety and a half in one play if they get the field position for it.
Let's go Lions. This is an easy one.
Well, I kind of took a hard one because I didn't realize that I had won three in a row.
But hey, let's go Trey McBride, who hasn't been to the end zone yet.
He scores this week against the Panthers. Why because the Panthers have allowed both the most receiving touchdowns at twenty seven and the most touchdowns two tight ends at ten, and this guy is do the yards, the receptions, they're all there.
I love this for Trey McBride and for me obviously.
Yeah, sure, I will take a due player as well, because Deepot Samuel is so close to going out. There was the drop in the game a couple of weeks ago. The offense has really struggled coming from behind as well. But I think Deebo Samuel gets over forty two and a half receiving yards against the Dolphins. And because this is the only segment where I have a lead this season over Greg and Cynthia and Greg's making multiple picks, I'll also.
Take oh wow, getting.
Over sixteen and a half points against the Buffalo Bills, because I'm not going to sit on this area.
Are you combining yours?
We need to get standings next week so Patrick can get his flowers.
No, we don't, We don't. My flowers are being on the show. Great, And have you guys watching? Thanks for watching Game Deview percented by Mercedes Benz. We'll see you next week.
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