Everybody. Welcome to game debut for Centaby Mercedes been Patrick playbond back here with my dear friends Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland in week twelve, where things become very consequential because the line here between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs Greg gets very very tight.
I love this time of year.
It's like every week the games get more and more important, and yes, my picks get better and better. I'm in the matrix right now. Give me cancer stops. He gave me a standing.
I don't even know what to say.
I mean, he is in the matrix, but also like he's also going to tell you about it, so I don't know if anyone needs.
It's what I tell my kids when things are going well, enjoy it because it's not going to last forever, so you might as well just enjoy.
But what about the people in your proximity? What if they don't enjoy? I heard about how well things are going, because it's directly relating to their failures. Anyway, let's jump
right into it. Monday night, we're getting a new edition of the Hardbowl, John and Jim facing off the first time since John's Ravens beat Jim's forty nine Ers thirty four to thirty one, and Super Bowl forty seven after the lights went out, Big brother John two to zero in his career against his little brother as head coaches. So both the Ravens so much has changed.
I mean, Jim wears cleats now I need to know if John does too. But in that last clip that he wasn't wearing cleats, So maybe that's the difference. If your head coaches wearing cleets.
Things are different, cleats and gloves in warm ups. Both the Ravens and the Chargers have seven wins in the playoff. Hunt, does little brother Jim finally beat big brother on Monday Night? Greg?
It's so weird to think of Jim Harbaugh as the little brother, and yet he is in this matchup and he will be on Sunday night again because the Ravens are winning this game twenty seven to twenty four. I was at that game in the Super Bowl, I mean in the in Hard Bowl back in New Orleans, and it's because a quarterback play that they won that game. Joe Flacco won that game for them, and Lamar Jackson is going to be the better quarterback in this game too.
Love Herbert, but what Lamar Jackson can do against pressure is unique. You know who also was great against pressure last week, Joe Burrow against this Chargers defense in the second half. I do think there are holes in this secondary. If Lamar Jackson can just get away from that first rusher, and he's so good at doing that buying time, I think he'll be able to find open receivers down the field.
Because as good as this Chargers secondary has played, considering they're playing two fifth round rookies and Kristin Fulton, who's kind of a reclamation project, the talent is on the Baltimore offensive side of the ball.
The word reclamation made it into our show. Congratulations to the wordsmith, Greg. Not only are you beating us in picks, you were also the best.
Wordsmith of round.
I only have a one point win for the Ravens, and I want to talk a little bit about what Joe Brow and that Cincinnati offense did to this defense last week. The adjustments were pretty epic, including which is a high probability of it not working out a fourth down touchdown to Uno. That is what you call Jamar Chase. Just so you know, it's called Uno time clear just
I learned that last week. But when I'm looking at the opportunity here, you know, look what t Higgins did the two different receiver sets, which one are you going to take in this one? And then, by the way, they also have this great tight end that they could also be or several great tight ends I guess that
they could also be hitting them with. So even if the first half doesn't look great for the Ravens, expect good second and third you know, options, and then the second half to look a little bit different.
Only one option between our score, Cynthia, because I have the same exact score out yeah on Cynthia's homework, as most people should if Cynthia's homework is available to see twenty five twenty four Baltimore Ravens winning and this comes on the strength of the Baltimore Ravens run defense, where the Chargers do commit to the run, but it's gonna
be the difference late. The team is almost two reliant on its quarterback to create that's actually the opponent this time for the Baltimore Ravens, and they have a case as the best run defense in the league. The Chargers score, I believe the Ravens ultimately score one more. I understand there's injuries on the Ravens defense concerns there, but they haven't really been able to stop anybody for most of the season since all.
Board for US regular worried we've doubted the Chargers too many times this year, perilous.
Let's do some math on this game, Cynthia. We'll Justin Herbert throw for over or under two hundred and fifty seven and a half passing yards on Monday Night.
Well, we all have.
A close game, even though Greg's is the least close, and I think that dictates a passing game script late in the game.
You also can pass on this Ravens defense.
Even if they.
Decide to give a light box to Justin Herbert for whatever reason they choose, it still doesn't matter. You're still gonna have enough of those catches by their receivers, who are both very playable in fantasy. This game, think Justin Herbert has at least two hundred and fifty eight passing yards.
All right, Civil rivalries great playoff rivalries. Even better, The Packers and the Niners have one of the best. Most recently. San Francisco got the dub in last year's Divisional round. A HI for Drake green Law, who I sit for San Francisco last January. Get well soon, dre As. I think the Niners would have had Lobardi Trophy if he didn't hurt himself jogging on the field in the Super Bowl. The rivalry continues though Sunday in Lambeau. Who comes away victorious this time around? Greck.
I am going with the Packers this time, twenty eight to twenty four in this game because neither of these teams are quite what we expected, at least not where they were last January. But the offense for the Packers is coming into form, Jordan Love, and this Packers passing attack is actually the one part of this game along with the running.
Really, it's the whole offense that I trust.
This forty nine Ers defense, whether Nick Bosa is out there or not, a little ordinary. The forty nine Ers offense, little dude, Juan Jennings, reliant, not what they used to be. Packers defense don't really love it, Jordan Love. I do love it, and I know he'll give you an interception every now and then.
I don't care.
Look at these throws that he is making week after week.
They are getting it done.
They are so dynamic in the passing game, and you know they can hit you on the ground too, But it's Jordan Love's ability to make those special throws and the variety of the receivers that they have that they ultimately think gets it done.
Offense wins.
Yeah, I'm with you, Greg. No practice for Nick Bosa late in the week on Wednesday, couldn't finish the game Sunday. Problem for the pass rush and overall problems against the run all season long. And they number twenty eight against runs outside of the tackles. And you look back last year at what was a top three defense. They go all the way to the Super Bowl. Yeah, they give up some points to the Detroit Lions, and it's like, ah, this defense is trouble. They lose to the Chiefs and
the Super Bowl. It's like, how we got to fire our defensive coordinator. Now, look, the Lions are scoring a billion points a game and they have to play against the Packers, who were top ten in outside runs. Josh Jacobs's powers to pack to victory.
Cynthia, Oh, well, I guess we're giving me a prime number here by just one point.
Boo boo, ple bl blu umbers, numbers.
Numbers, there's my number, but look it's twenty four to twenty three. Now, I will put a little asterisk here if for some reason there's no brock Purty, that will change things and the Nick Bosa factor will have to see exactly what happens, so hythem. I reserve the right to switch it on Sunday with the injury report, not that we'll know anything before ninety minutes before kickoff anyways, because that is how they do things in.
The forty nine Ers camp.
But the person who I do think is playing is the straw that is stirring the drink for this offense this season. That is number eighty five. When you're looking at what George Kittle means to this offense, especially when he lines up as an inline receiver.
Whoo, things are good.
And that is an area that this Packers defense that I do not trust, is very susceptible to. So if you see something like George Kittle lined up in line, just know the Packers have allowed like a ninety five completion percenta is two shuch throws. So if we're talking about like brock Purty's playing, check George Kittle playing check.
Nick Bosa check. Then it is definitely Niners.
Yeah. If you see something, say something. Well, George Kittle lined up in Lott as a receiver the team that beat the forty nine ers last week, He's the Seahawks. With less than twenty seconds ago, Eugene Cyril Smith shocked the fans in Santas Clara. Well, personal biases have the Holy Catfish call high on the call of the year's standings. Gino put the forty nine ers to bed last week. Now, the Seahawks play host to the first place Cardinals Kyler
squad coming off of the bye week. The division is nuts, Greg, how do you see it going?
I see the Seahawks taking that energy that they got from that last drive and bringing it to this week in a twenty four to twenty two victory. Look, I love the Cardinals I've been picking them all year, but Gino Smith on this last drive was something special. He's winning from the neck up and he's just got something a little extra.
He stays calm in the big moments.
You know who led the NFL and fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives a year ago. Geno Smith. You know who's gonna do it? Again Geno Smith. Look at the matchups in the secondary. When Gino Smith goes back to pass, and I think, for once he might have some pass protection because the Cardinals don't rush the passer that well. Jackson Smith and Jigbu is really breaking out.
DK Metcalf back healthy. I think they have mismatches in the back end, and I think a special run by the Seahawks team is going to start right now.
I like that.
I also agree with who wins. I have a score of twenty three to twenty one is a two point win as well. But we need to give a little love to Kyler Murray specifically when he runs the football. Why because one interesting thing about this Seahawks defense is that the two starting linebackers from week one guess where they are now?
Not of the team right ones of Miami.
Right one was traded away, but Ernest Jones has been great.
He actually has one of the top run stop percentages among linebackers since he came over in that trade. But Kyler Murray is a different beast. This is a situation where all of those bootlegs to the left, he runs to the left a lot right. All those you can close your eyes and see it. They haven't seen something like that before, at least not the rookie. So when you see something where you know, look, this is a vision opponent. They're going to have new tricks and folds
every single time they play. And Kyler is just special, so he deserves to be talked about.
Even though I'm picking the Seahawks.
Yeah, absolutely, Mike McDonald's defense. If you look season long wise the Sea, it's like, oh, the Seahawks are a bad defense. I think they've gotten a little bit better, but I also have a slim margin win for the home team spoiler alert or when they play this game again in a couple of weeks, I'll take the home team there again. But I would mainly like to talk about this Cardinals defense that I lovingly call the search Bar because I'm constantly having to figure out who exactly
these people are. They are being able to accomplish a lot despite not really getting a ton of pressure on the quarterback. They're only ahead of the Panthers and the Falcons and pressure percentage, but they have more sacks than both of those teams combined. Fighte blitzing less It works sometimes, but I think you really have to get absolute pressure on Gino and swarm him and able to be able to win, especially game in Seattle. I don't think they'll
be able to do that enough here. So we are all on the Seattle Seahawks and the memes are rolling here on game debut, It's time from the Drive to Excellence presented by Say. He's been Saquon adding this move seventy yards of the fourth quarter rushing in that last game against the Commanders the Eagles in the Rams Sunday Night at So far Philly has won six straight since they're by They're in first place in the NFC East.
The Ramilly definitely in the playoff race. Does it get even better in the playoff race for the Rams?
Cynthia no Oh, I'm sorry.
I have twenty six to twenty two in favor of the Eagles, in large part because of that man. We just watched a bunch of highlights on that is Saquon Barkley. When I'm looking at the opportunity to leverage him in oh, the pass catching game, running on inside routes, running onto the outside, like all of the different ways that you would like to use him. Well, that O line is specifically tailored to him. I know that the strength of
this Rams defense is right up front. But you know what, when you run away from the pressure, things get better for you. So Saquon Barkley a massive day. I think that that helps bolster the Eagles chances to beat the Rams.
Yeah. I'm looking forward to this game where there's two incredible young defensive lines that get a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But I locked the Eagles offensive line more so, I will talk about the Eagles defensive line, namely Jalen Carter, who is the only interior defensive lineman who's generated multiple pressures in every game this season. An asterisk because Dexter Lawrence is getting double in triple team like a million tunds. But still, Jalen Carter has fifteen
quick pressures this season. He's top three in that category, and I think he gets one that changes this game. On Sunday, Greg, Eagles winning, I.
Was with you.
That was how I lean because I picked the Eagles to win actually every single game this year, fun fact, you know, and six straight times have been right. And yet as the week went on, Chames my mind and I had a vision of the Rams winning this game. Rams are a very hard team to predict. I think they win a relatively high scoring game, and it's partly because of Sean McVay.
Let's just greg it up.
I got a hunch about this team across the street. It's a revenge game for Sean McVay, a revenge that last six years. Let's go back to twenty eighteen Bears Rams.
Why are we showing you that game?
Vic Fangio, the defensive coordinator of the Bears, helped change NFL history with a six to one front that really stopped the outside zone Rams team back then. There's Fangio now doing a great job a lot of the same concepts with.
This Eagles team.
Sean McVay, the whiz kid he got pants in the Super Bowl by Bill Belichick, who copied that game plan. Really, the whole NFL started copying that game plan for years. It got Jared Goff out of Los Angeles. It made Sean McVay change the whole offense. They don't even run outside zone anymore. This has been in his head for six straight years. He wants revenge because he was the hot kid in town. That Fangio took that from him, and now he's gonna show.
Who's I think we have the same thought, Cynthia.
What, I'm so confused that you're taking revenge on Fangio for something Belichick did.
Well, No, Fangio did it because Fangio showed him how to beat Sean McVay and it was at a time where he was just looking like the smart kid in town. I just mean, I think this one means a little extra to McVay. I think he's gonna have some special sauce a young Eagles defense. They can't win every game. I think Sean McVay is gonna have some great stuff.
We could ultimately end up with Vic Fangio getting credit for two teams winning the Super Bowl that he did not coach for. The Eagles are chasing for the top seed in the NFC right now. That's a team that I guess thanks to Vic Fangio has Jared Goff, Cynthia's Detroit Lions. You're getting you don't even know it, which most dead people fall into that category. Jared Goff coming off with four touchdown game. The Lions ain't straight games.
Some folks saw it coming. They've got Anthony Richardslim and the Colts. On Sunday I think they make it nine straight, winning twenty seven to thirteen, because you saw it on that play. There's so many aspects of the Lions offense that we can celebrate. Why don't we look at Jared Goff passing with play action, folks. He's over one thousand
yards already on just play action passing this season. In fact, he has two hundred more yards on play action than the next closest quarterback, which is Matthew Stafford, who is there because of Vic Fangio's efforts in a Bears game against the Rams a couple of years ago. I think the Lions win this one thirty seven.
It made sense in my head. A lot of it. Even made Sean McVay be.
Like, I got to get a defensive quarter You're like Fangio, so he hired Brandon Staley.
Lots of things happen go on to this game.
You know what, Thank you for your service, Vic Fangio. We all we're actually probably all here because of you, Vic Fangio. But the Lions win this one, twenty nine to twenty one. I want to talk about Aman Ross Saint Brown for a second here, because he actually has the highest upside for any wide receiver in my model this week.
Why because you know who plays a lot of zone.
Who's up?
Yeah, the Colts.
They played the most zone and they kind of do it even if it doesn't work. But you know where Jerik Goff has thrown all of his interceptions against zone.
So this team figures to be a team that is working out some kikes.
That is kind of my explanation for what we saw last week when they did not take their foot off the gas against the Jaguars. But I think this is an opportunity to really target the guy against zone. And this is a guy who has twenty nine percent target share, second highest in the NFL. So I think if you're looking for a really nice, high upside fantasy playlet's.
To number fourteen.
I love this Lions team because they're great. They can make comebacks against the Texans, but they're also great front runners, which is why all three of us not only have the Lions winning this game, we have them covering. I have them winning by ten, and it's partly because of the way the Colts won last week. Let's show some great Anthony Richardson footage. I point out these throws just to show you how difficult.
They all were.
Part of the reason they had to win with difficult throws where Anthony Richardson had to fit the ball into tight windows. Is the running game really wasn't working. Jonathan Taylor was stuffed by a pretty bad Jets run defense Anthony Richardson except for those runs on the goal line, which are important, he's such a red zone threat, he didn't really get it going on the ground either. That worries me because against a Lions team that stops the run and I think will be able to control Jonathan
Taylor and Anthony Richardson on the ground. Man, you're gonna be trailing. You're gonna have to hit low percentage throws. That's only gonna work so much. They play well, not well of if they lose by ten.
As we look at the first touchdown score odds between the Vikings and the Bears, Aaron Jones in the familiar spot playing against the Chicago Bears the leading the way at four hundred plus four to fifty Justin Jefferson. Right after that, DeAndre Swift at seven fifty, Jordanatis and TJ. Hockettson browning things out. Let's talk about this matchup a little bit more of the Bears haven't won in over
a month, while the Vikings have won three straight. The Monsters of the Midway, can they come back from that huge disappointment?
Get a win here, Cynthia, Anything's possible.
Oh, there we go.
But my model says no.
I have Minnesota by at least four points twenty three to nineteen. Part of those numbers there dictate the total in the game. I think it could be even more than four points if you're picking up what I'm putting down. But Caleb Williams did look significantly better last week. Some of the things that we talked about with Thomas Brown and targeting this defense where they were actually most vulnerable, and also being smart about using his feet to rush when it meant and it made sense.
KYLEB.
Williams looked considerably better.
I think if you're a Bears fan, I understand that is a terrible way to lose a game. However, there are a lot of things to be excited about if you're a Caleb Williams fan, and for the future, so it not all is lost.
Those stunned Monsters of the Midway are gonna be You're gonna be okay.
Okay, so you said it might be even more than four points. I say it will be more than four points. I got it as a touchdown Vikings on the road, and it's partly because Brian Flores he's got more than one pitch.
It's not just all about the fastball. He's changing it up.
You know who's been very average and blitzery over the last three weeks, the Vikings. The Vikings, after always sending the heat over and over. Brian Flores said, you know what, we're actually getting a lot of pressure with just our regular four. Jonathan Gernard is playing fantastic. Van Ginkle's awesome. Some no names up front. We got Patrick Jones and he can just pick any dial on the menu. It's like one of those restaurants where he has so many
different options and you just Picknickick. And I always worry about the team that has the moral victory the week before. Everyone's kind of higher on the Bears than they were a week ago, because like, oh, they play really well, they deserve to win that game, And sometimes I actually feel like there's a letdown after the moral victory. Thomas Brown put that week on tape. Now that floor is can kind of cook up.
And the thing is where even if the Vikings do line up like they're not going to blitz, there's still the idea that Van Ginkel and Grenard and all those guys could get pressure on the quarterback from any particular way. They come in so many different ways. But the Bears need to have a run game to try to make Thomas Brown's offense somewhat successful. It's been tough for them to do. This is not the team to get your
ground game going against. If we look over at next Gen stats the ten rush defense categories, they are in the top ten in nine of ten of those categories. They're number one in four of those categories. They can approach the run and the pass game so many different ways. Also, late week practice checks for DeAndre Swift. Keep an eye on that if you're paying attention to this game to whether or not it's all Rope One or DeAndre Swift. But we all expect the sadness to contain and you
in Chicago. Sorry, Bears fans, including our beloved producer Vegas, not expecting a ton of points in this one. Here's a look at the lowest point totals for the week thirty nine and a half there down in Houston, it's at forty and a half the Broncos and the Raiders. Most of that may be scored by the Broncos as well. Let's make some quick picks here on game debut. The Chiefs and the Panthers KC dropped their first game of
the season last week in Buffalo. Do they bounce back with a vengeance here against the Panthers.
Absolutely. I have a twelve point win for them.
This is the first time I've had them over their number the entire.
Season long WOY eight to sixteen.
In this matchup.
And even if Isaiah Pacheco is one hundred percent clear to go, which we are still unclear as of the time of this taping, it doesn't matter. You're still playing Kareem Hunt and potentially looking at him because the opportunity to run against this Panthers defense will be a nice return to football moment for Pacheco should he come back. But ultimately I don't care. This is a team that controls the ball. They have the most yard ten plus
play drives. They've scored on twenty four of them. That's the most of the league.
They average six point seven plays per drive. They got this one. She's got this one big.
Yeah, We've all got plus ten point wins and this one. Let's go to the Bucks and the Giants. Mike Evans expected back for Tampa, Tommy DeVito starting for the g Men, with Danny Dimes now super on the bench, Spoine, a couple other quarterbacks. Who do you think is gonna win.
Here, gret I think the Bucks are gonna win, even before I heard that Danny Dimes was their safety on the scout team.
Not just embarrassing. You got Mike Evans back on the field, you know you're gonna.
Go win against this Giants secondary who likes to travel a lot of times with their top cornerback.
I don't think Mike Evans is gonna worry about that.
I really like how the Buccaneers have developed their offense without Mike Evans, and now when you add him back into the mix, this is legitimately one of the best offenses in the league. I think they'll be able to run the ball efficiency efficiently and then get the ball to Mike Evans.
Let's go to the Patriots and the Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row, their longest streak of the season. I think they make it three in a row here. Guys win in twenty six to sixty eight on the power of John hu Smith, who is back in our lives after being targeted on just nineteen percent of his route to the first four weeks of the season. John neu Smith folks twenty seven percent target rate since then, replacing some productions. It seems like Jalen Waddell might be
playing through something. I have no information there, but numbers down for Jalen waddle across the board, including on stats and production, next gen stats wise, speed wise as well. I think John Hu Smith big replacement. Their fins get a chance to win it here. The question is can they make the push to the playoffs when we come back to the playoffs?
Just around the.
Corner, which fringe teams are getting in and who's going to be stuck watching right along with us. We'll cool you in as you're watching game debut presented by Mercedes Dang.
You hit the forty nine ers with a fringe team their fridge.
Oh so much excitement. Let's discuss some French playoff teams and what we think is going to happen. This is the AFC playoff picture of the Broncos right now, holding on to that seventh and final spot in the AFC. The Chiefs locked up a boy as of right now, but looking on at the team they just lost to the Buffalo Bills, leading division the Steelers as well. Do you think the Denver Broncos, greg, who are currently number seven in the AFC, do you think they will make the playoffs? Yes? Or no?
I believe let's do it. Yeah, I think I think bo Nicks gets this thing. But the thing, it's the offensive what I don't know which? Either way it's up here, it's all up.
I'm colorblind.
These things have never been friendly to the colorblind community.
I love all of you out there. You know what else?
I love the offensive line of the Denver Broncos. I'm gonna show you some great bo Nicks highlights. Okay, first of all, Courtland Sutton's still getting it done.
Sean Payton still getting it done.
That's like a crazy mouth to one handed catch there.
Sean Payton getting it done. You see a lot of wide open receivers.
You know what else?
You see not a lot of pressure on bo Nicks. This has been a fantastic offensive line when they signed Quinn Minors in training camp.
It was a statement of intent.
We're gonna build through a lot of guys you don't know up front, and they're gonna be better than you think. Heck, and when they're not, bon Nicks can scramble just like.
That best tummy in football by far, bone Nicks, the phone Nicks.
No, I don't know what his tummy looks like. He doesn't push you anyways.
I too believe that the Broncos will make the playoffs. And let's talk about pressure, but defense of pressure, because this defense is absolutely.
Crushing, especially when they only rush for look Out, number ninety nine is coming for your life. It's Zach Allen.
Last year, some people were like, oh, that was a lot of money you paid this man and he's not giving you the good return on investment. Ha ha ha, No, no, no, this I mean, yes, he was good last year, but this year he's exceptional. And that difference making and getting that pressure, the quick pressure on opposing quarterbacks that has been a problem for other teams. This is one of the reasons why they're able to not necessarily they blitz
because they choose to. They don't blitz because they have to and that secondary is backed up and they work together, handing love, just like we put my hand in this cleft here, Meaning they're going to the playoffs.
Initially, when I looked at this question and the rest of the season, I thought it was a oath. But now I'm a yes because I was looking at the next matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, and then I remember the Chiefs might have already clinched by the time they played that game. So this revenge game opportunity where the Chiefs maybe come back, Hey, we almost lost to this team. Patrick Mahomes might not even play in this game.
This may be a game where the Chiefs are getting ready to go into having a buy and the Denver Broncos need to get a win. Watch smash yourselves against that wall. Because there's a couple of other really good teams in the AFC that are on the fringe. I think that alone pushes the Denver Broncos into the playoffs, as Patrick Mahomes will be doing that watching potentially from the sidelines. We'll go to the Dolphins, who have now won two in a row. They almost knocked off the
Bills a few weeks ago. Greg does to Miami Dolphins. Do they make the playoffs?
I don't think so because there are already a couple losses behind the Broncos. Here, let's go no, because look, they've been great on third down. They've been great with a short passing. I want to extol the virtues of the Dolphins. I think they get into the mix. Their next four game is pretty easy. I think they beat the Patriots fun Thanksgiving night game. I think that's the one that could trip them up. But I think they
can beat the Jets and the Texans. The problem is when you look at the two schedules between them and the Broncos, for instance, or the Ravens. Who else could be in the wildcard mix.
I think the Broncos have the easiest schedule. It's going to be too hard.
It's that backup quarterback situation that put them in too big of a hole.
All right, it's going to Joe Burrows squad playing an MVP level. Is the quarterback defense? Isn't the Bengals four and seven decency make the playoffs?
Bump Bump bu Sorry, Cincinnati, I really like you, but unfortunately, especially with that win last week, it makes it very very difficult.
You know who they have to play against the AFT North.
That is difficult when you're looking at the opportunity that the Bengals had to make the postseason.
They just haven't won the games that they were supposed to.
They kind of squandered away some of those fourth schedule situations that they were in. This is not a great opportunity when your defense is giving up a lot of yards on the ground, a lot of yards through the air, and when you can't make kicks like last week, the bad defense situation becomes even worse.
And then to be fair, like Joe Burrow like keep hearing that he's like the MVP, but his team's not helping him. Was like, hey, maybe win a game like one of the five times when he got the ball with the chance to go put the game away on offense.
You were to extol the virtue of Joe Burrow not doing a taking a hail maker, saying.
They had them all like three times against the Chargers in that game.
Score some points. Yeah, Joe, I didn't say it.
Let's take a look at the playoff picture over in the NFC where it's Detroit Cynthia's Detroit Lions currently with the buye. The Eagles leading division, as are the Cards and the Falcons the Vikings in the wild card. But let's look over at the Indie Hunt spot. Because the forty nine ers the playoffs started today, they'd be watching on some comfy chairs. Can they change that, Cynthia to the San Francisco forty Niners make the playoffs?
Well again, if there's no this game this week is actually a must win game if I'm looking at the schedule going forward, and since I have them winning, the answer.
Is yes, by a little This needs to be a little.
Tiny smidge because I think that with Christian McCaffrey coming back and his ability to change the way the offense operates, especially in the red area, they really do have an opportunity here to kind of get around some of their defensive woes. So along the same lines of like what I said before, like if there's no brock Party, things change, If there's no George Kittle, things change. But Christian McCaffrey is a really big difference maker going forward.
Should the rest of those pieces also be available?
Yeah, you look at their schedule the rest of the way and it's very difficult, including this week. And that's why I'm going to go ahead and say no. I think it's going to be tough for two NFC West teams to get into the playoffs, and I do not think they're going to.
Win the division.
So I'm going to say a big, fat no for the San Francisco forty nine. I had them, you know, in the preseason we did over unders and I had them as one of my very first picks to go on.
I just feel like, this isn't their year. Too much has happened.
Yeah, well they're over under was like eleven. It was crazy.
Anyways, looking back, if we go back to the twenty twenty three San Francisco forty nine Ers twenty eight points per game, a top ten offense that the points per game has only dropped three. The problem is over on the defensive side. The offense still scored twenty five points. I do not think. I do not think the San Francisco forty nine Ers will make the playoffs. And there's so many games that we can look back to to
determine where it all went wrong. I think at the end of the season, they're gonna look back at this early season matchup in Sofi Stadium where they had the lead against a very, very hurt Los Angeles Rams team. They could not close them out.
National teams has killed them all year.
It's about Sean McVay runs in in the postgame, bewildered that somehow the Rams won this football game, and that's gonna keep his good pal and old buddy and playoff rival out of the playoffs. Maybe we'll see a lot I'm gonna sit they a lot hinges on whether or not they could beat the Packers this week. Let's go to the NFC South, where the leading Falcons currently lead. Greg, do you think the team that's leading the division right now?
No, now, even before you enter the answer the question, it's gonna be a Bucks world in the playoffs. I love this Bucks team. They're better than their record, and you look at the Falcons coming up. They're schedule tougher than the Bucks. Their defense worse than the Bucks, their defense worse than almost.
Anyone else's defense.
Yes, like Kirk Cousins has made it happen from the pocket all season, and that's great, But some of these games that the Buccaneers have, i mean found a way to lose against the Falcons, and that the Falcons have found a way to win at the very end, a little bit of luck involved in just generally no pass rush, no good linebacker play either, especially in coverage.
It's not like they're a great run defense.
I think a defense this bad, especially with those odds minus four hundred to.
Make the playoffs. Like I'm liking the upset pick here.
So if they don't just win, lose in the division and they don't get in the wild card, let's talk about another team that could be in that mix. The Rams Cynthia currently sitting just outside of the wild card at five and five rams in.
Oh boy man, that ninety seven yards across the way or whatever we decided it was.
They are not going to like me.
Why Well, to me O, line play is extremely important and they have been banged up and also when I'm looking at you know, even coming back then being banged up again.
Then being bad.
This has not been an opportunity to be consistent for Matthew Stafford. I know Matthew Stafford is great when he doesn't the play after being pressured. He doesn't even need that to be excellent. Oh, line play just needs to be better than average, and it just hasn't been. And you've seen Kyron Williams now not be as effective.
So I kind of agree with you that.
I mean, unless it's the Niners and the Cardinals, I don't think two NFC West teams came in, so right now, I think it's Cardinals.
And just look at the name names on the bottom of that graphic.
There.
You got the Eagles this week, which I think the Rams could win, but that's tough. You got the Bills in a couple weeks.
Don't you think they Couldn't they really going to win? I think they could win.
I'm just saying, these are three really tough games. Yeah, that's true, Darren Ridsey, this is four tough game. Frizzy ball tom Rosse to do some.
Quick picks here on game debut, the Titans and the Texans in Houston. Who gets the win? Greg?
The Texans get the win, but the Titans get the cover with room to spare, I have this as a one point game. I have the Texans on upset alert in part because we've seen a better version of Will Levis the last couple of weeks. Let's give Will Levis some love. I asked for, like, let's get some Will Levis highlights, And I was told no One that NFL networks like cut a Will Levis clip. Since Week four, it's like he's totally off the radar. He's making some
good passes. The last couple of weeks, He's taken a lot of sacks. He's not a perfect quarterback, little mechanical going through his reads. You could almost see him thinking the coaching notes. But he's playing smarter and when he does let go of that ball, it's pretty I think he's gonna have a nice career, maybe not as a franchise quarterback, but a guy that comes in and gives your offense a spark. I think they keep it close again into Texans offense that's really been struggling.
All right, Let's go to the Broncos and the Raiders bow knicks through four touchdowns last week. Does Denver keep it rolling, Cynthia.
They absolutely do have a seven point win twenty three to sixteen.
But because we haven't talked about the Raiders at all.
And Brock Bauers is doing amazing things, we need to talk about him. Number One, he had the most the single game touch tight end reception record.
He made it last week.
Let's go.
He also is tied for the two games of ten plus receptions. This can you talk about someone with a great career and going to have an excellent upset career like this is an epic start.
And a team that really needs him.
They knew that he was going a telegraphed hey Worth basically like when Gardner Minshew throws the ball, he's like, I'm going to throw it to brock Bowers.
Doesn't matter, he's still going to catch it.
So congratulations brock Bowers and good things for the Raiders.
That's a happy thing.
Yeah, it looked like on one of those plays rock Bowers didn't think the ball was coming in him. He's like, oh wait, why.
Who cares?
The Cowboys and the Commanders Dallas says, drop five in a row. I think dan Quinn comes in and exit six and a revenge game. Well maybe not. He had good times in Dallas. I've got the Commanders winning twenty eight to sixteen on the heels of Cooper Rush throwing the ball fifty five times on Monday Night football against the Houston Texans. Fun fact, the Commander's defense since Week
four has twenty five sacks. They're playing good defense, They're gotting pressure on the quarterback and the Cowboys can't really run or pass right now? It's rough.
Is it really a revenge game when you were like the highest paid defensive coordinator in the league and the owner of the Cowboys? This week, Jerry Jones is almost openly saint man. I kind of wish we still.
Had Dan Quinn.
You know, he think I think he misses him.
Maybe the revenge is against everybody posting all those twenty eight to three memes all the time, Greg coming up our favorite player props for week twelve. We went oh and three last week. Ah, but the laws of science and maths say that we're due, even though it's not really true. We guarantee these props hit or were putting Greg's address up on blue Sky. I didn't write that
stick around. We're back on game Dare you? On Sunday at nine am Eastern Rich Eisen, Kurt Warner, Mooch, Cynthia Freeland, and the rest of the GDM crew get you set for a kickoff with NFL Game Day Morning folks tell us how the forty nine ers can shake off their Super Bowl hangover. Plus, did the Bills give the blueprint on how to beat Patrick Mahomes is very simple. Have Josh Allen All that and more are coming up Sunday at nine am.
Alien grew this week. Nazi's taller than Kyle. This is great.
Yea Garifolo pull it off the very small edition of Mike Garifolo top for Write this down here on our program as we get to some predictions for week twelve. Started off for the people.
Yeah, my write this downs have been as clumsy as the cotton on this little table scape here, But I'm.
Turning around this week.
Josh Jacobs over seventy and a half rushing yards. Love this matchup against the forty nine ers. I think they're gonna have a winning game. Scriptyet playing from a head. Love the way he's running that the scheme. Lafleur has been cooking up run schemes ever since that loss in the playoffs last year. He wants revenge on his buddy Kyle Shanan. Josh Jacobs helps give it to him.
All right, get a write this down from Greg there. Well, Josh Jacobs hitting that number. I've got Courtland Sutton having over sixty and a half receiving yards against the Las Vegas Raiders. If you want to know when the last time this didn't happen. You gotta go all the way back to October seventeenth, twenty twenty four. You know why didn't happen because they were on a bye that with
the Denver Broncos are throwing the ball a ton. I think Courtland Sutton gets you sixty and a half receiving yards easy.
Cynthia, I have one that I guarantee will hit.
But the first one here is cade Aughton having more than forty and forty nine and a half receiving yards.
I love this opportunity.
Remember, I know Mike Evans is back, but they need to pass the ball even more. And you know Baker Mayfield loves to throw the ball. But the one that I guarantee is that Patrick is going to have the happiest birthday.
Oh yeah on Monday, Happy.
Yay, Happy.
Guarantee that one hits.
That one's well, I think it might depend on the results of the game over there on Monday night. Football folks, Thank you, Cynthia, Thank you guys for thinking the happy birthday, And then thank you I were spending all this time with us here on game debut. Percented by Mercedes Business.
Lamar Look at you. You hold this man in your hands. Good day. You've already got that beautiful sweater. What more does he need?
A win would be nice, And you guys to watch this next week. We'll see you then coming up on game debut. Thanks for watching, everybody,